Thursday racing

[happyclaret17]

no joy today unless you took the extra places available on betfair...
made lots of notes with several strong note book entries.
THURSDAY
2 05...COILLTE LASS...EW 1234 BETFAIR....CURRENTLY TRADING AT 11
this distance suits and has already beten the 2nd fav easily this season.

2 15,,MAGGIES ANGEL 2/1 AND BEAU TIMES 14/1 look like the ones to be on here
both sprint bred and most of this field are not,,,maggies lad comes from the in form Fahey yard
and beau times from tim easterbies yard who unleashes some of his best 2 year olds at this track.

2 50 FLO'S MELODY 7/2 AND SHOWDANCING 8/1 tick most boxes between them...both early 2 year olds...
flo's melody again from the Fahey yard and sprint bred....showdancing best drawn and sprint bred.

4 00 MAIFALKI 25/1 could be a nicely handicapped horse if transfering his all weather form to turf...had
a pipe opener over too short a trip at redcar...when last seen on the all weather he won well from the widest and worst draw at wolves over this trip
a bit out of left field but this prominent racer is well drawn and is worth chancing at the price.

7 20...ROSEALEE 4/1 has her ideal conditions here and against the fillies instead of the colts she should go close...
may update tomorrow lunch if anything else crops up....utc.

[cutsy123]

Cheers happy.

25p ew lucky 31 placed on all 5 bigger priced horses. Might do the hanagan ones as a double

[claretdom]

Snow Leopardess (Chelt 3.15) was very impressive last time out and won with a fair bit in hand, not sure the 12lb rise is enough and the runner up last time out has won since.

[cutsy123]

Rich and famous - 1.50 @ newmarket

Ive done that EW too. Like the Johnson horses. Snowleopard is a good shout too

[Claretmatt4]

Leaving it today so they will all come in for you lot, good luck!

[dogwith3legs]

So happy – this weeks PGA golf if you are interested starts today Valero Texas Open. I guess this is my current hobby and like yours it takes a lot of time – I did well last week getting Wes Bryan @ 66/1- gives me a bit of confidence to post this up. But consider I do multiple bets it increases the chances a lot…. It’s quite hard to pick out the winner in a 100+ horse race every week

Haven’t had enough time to completely finalise selections but this is what I’ve lifted out of various sources. Guess this logic can still be applied on the final day in play selections

Course - TPC San Antonio
• Experience will be key. It’s a tough course and experienced pros may be favoured over youngsters.
• Key stats – I see inconsistency across the usual write up’s. Long hitting advantage on this is unclear – there is a theory it is taking over driving accuracy & GIR as a key stat. Not seeing a standout key stat to look for. Perhaps shots gained on longer holes, long approaches, par 5 performance – putting helps obviously as likely that greens will be fast
• Many approaches to the green 150-200 yrds out
• Related form/course previous record here might be the better way to go. Related form possibly = Sony Open and the Puerto Rico Open & OHL Classic in Mexico
• Good wind players may have an advantage
• Forecast. Moderate wind. Sunday could be stronger
• Can be a draw bias. Check the weather
• Nine of the last 21 winners have been from Texas
• In play punts - every winner has been up the leader board throughout. Hard to come from behind

2 picks not backed yet as odds are low… its not really a strong field. May leave it for in play. Also have Hadwin and Ryan Moore to watch
Brendan Steele – won in 2011. Above average SG stats. Let down often by a mid round wobble but hasn’t missed a cut this year. Needs to cut out the wobble. Likes this course record is 13 8 MC 46 4 1 he is 25/1
Kevin Chappell: 7th at the Masters and good record here 4th last year. Good long iron player. Needs to drive it well then could go close. 28/1

Others that ‘fit’ for me… haven’t had time to write up “why” for each – will try come back to it but it’s based on what I bulleted. And with decent form / course records. Of these I really like Schniederjans. He went very well last week. Experience may be a question with him

Tony Finau 28/1
Ollie Schniederjans 30/1
John Peterson 150/1
Brian Gay 175/1
JJ Spaun 40/1
Michael Thompson 175/1
Luke List 50/1
Rafael Campos 100/1

Looking at all e/w and the 4 outsiders will be top 20 bets around 6 or 7/1.

Detail on Campos – Decent form since leaping into PGA tour events after a 10th at the Puerto Rico Open then a great 7th at the Shell Open and 32nd last week. I backed him small stakes last week and was going quite well but had a flat final round – he’s 125/1 and seems progressive. Lacking his PGA stats to be more sure but 10th at the windy Puerto Rican Open suggest he has the game. Not sure how he would hold up if in contention on the final day but solid top 20 shout

[cutsy123]

no joy today unless you took the extra places available on betfair...
made lots of notes with several strong note book entries.
THURSDAY
2 05...COILLTE LASS...EW 1234 BETFAIR....CURRENTLY TRADING AT 11
this distance suits and has already beten the 2nd fav easily this season.

2 15,,MAGGIES ANGEL 2/1 AND BEAU TIMES 14/1 look like the ones to be on here
both sprint bred and most of this field are not,,,maggies lad comes from the in form Fahey yard
and beau times from tim easterbies yard who unleashes some of his best 2 year olds at this track.

2 50 FLO'S MELODY 7/2 AND SHOWDANCING 8/1 tick most boxes between them...both early 2 year olds...
flo's melody again from the Fahey yard and sprint bred....showdancing best drawn and sprint bred.

4 00 MAIFALKI 25/1 could be a nicely handicapped horse if transfering his all weather form to turf...had
a pipe opener over too short a trip at redcar...when last seen on the all weather he won well from the widest and worst draw at wolves over this trip
a bit out of left field but this prominent racer is well drawn and is worth chancing at the price.

7 20...ROSEALEE 4/1 has her ideal conditions here and against the fillies instead of the colts she should go close...
may update tomorrow lunch if anything else crops up....utc.

7.20 NR

[happyclaret17]

thanks dogwith3legs...really interesting...always good to hear views before things happen...I like Brian Gay...don't think he has won for a while but has just shown some form...I remember him winning a tourney ...he was 3rd round leader and just went further clear on the final round.
I have just been reading Martyn Meades recent stable tour on attheraces....he says this about 2 of todays runners.

EMINENT
b c Frankel - You'll Be Mine
Winner of his only start at Newmarket (1m) in September when beating Vantage Point two and three quarter lengths and currently rated 87.
"I have decided not to go for the Feilden and we will go for the Craven on the Thursday and hope for the best. Jim Crowley came down and rode him last week and he was fine. He is a horse that doesn't show a lot at home and he is just a relentless galloper. One of the reason I want to run him in the Craven is that he needs a strong pace and he should get that there. After that we will know where we are with him but he's in the Dante and the Derby so we have a lot of options."

ERNSTSTAVROBLOFELD
ch c Elusive Quality - Minute Limit
Winner of one of his 2 starts and currently rated 85. Scored by a length and a quarter from Stanhope on his debut at Yarmouth (6f) in August and unplaced in a listed event at York (6f) in October on his only subsequent start.
"He is in fine form and he will run in the mile handicap at Newmarket on Thursday I am happy with the mark he has been given and he should go well off that."

bearing in mind that this guy has a 28 percent strike rate at Newmarket and Ryan moore and Crowley are booked today I think that they are worth including in todays bets...both around 8 or 9/1.
if a trainer ever says he is happy with a horses mark it usually means they think the horse is a fair bit better....they will need to be as both races include big improvers....the atr trainer files are free to view and definitely worth a read

[happyclaret17]

will try and get a message on late tonight but it may be in the morning...9 am at the latest so you have the pick of the best prices...its already getting tough with so many meetings...I am having to ignore a lot of races...in the next month there will be more recent notebook horses emerging and it may be a case of selecting those in races that suit...utc.

[colinclaret]

Eminent nice 8/1 shot cheers.

[claretdom]

You get such good value for your money when Moore is on a O'Brien horse and you are backing something else. Anything between 1 and 2 points extra just down to Moore being on something else.

[happyclaret17]

There has been a real draw bias all week at the track...horses racing just off this near side rail have been favoured...thats where EMINENT won from and RIVET raced...biggest notebook entry was LARCHMONT LAD who raced on the worst of the ground with GULLIVER AND WAR DECREE...ended up beating those 2 well....will be a good price if going to the guinneas.