Predict the election result

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:47 pm

For me I fancy it might be much closer than expected.

A Tory majority of 57.
Lib Dems pick up 25 seats.
Greens 4.

Goalposts · Post by **Goalposts** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:50 pm

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:52 pm

Tory 3 figure majority, lib dims on less than 20, Labour annihilated !

hampsteadclaret · Post by **hampsteadclaret** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:53 pm

Greens = 4 ????

Some votes yes...4 seats..never.

Spiral · Post by **Spiral** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:00 pm

I'm going to laugh my tits off if this grassroots tactical-voting thing actually comes off. It won't work, obviously, but I'd love to see the parallel universe where it does. At this point, Labour not being annihilated would be a victory.

TheFamilyCat · Post by **TheFamilyCat** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:01 pm

Go on then abc, I'll humour you...

Are you basing that prediction on any kind of logic or reasoning or, like your Tarks in midfield threads, have you just plucked it from thin air?

Steve1956 · Post by **Steve1956** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:03 pm

2-1 to the tories penalty in fergie time.

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:25 pm

Cons 362 - Majority 74
labour 186
SNP 52
Lib Dems 21

BennyD · Post by **BennyD** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:43 pm

Tories to win by a lot and I still won't be putting any money on it.

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:47 pm

Tory majority 101.
Opposition is almost half-dead after one day.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:01 pm

Labour minority win. Someone had to say it.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:19 pm

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:28 pm

Will be interesting if the gap is as big for the Tories:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ki ... tion,_1997" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ten bellies · Post by **ten bellies** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:23 pm

The rich win.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:45 pm

ten bellies wrote:The rich win.

According to JC it's all a fix.

And, Nigel Farage isn't going to lose this time, he's not standing.

Wexford_Claret · Post by **Wexford_Claret** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:48 pm

Lab/SNP coalition.

Spiral · Post by **Spiral** » Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:54 pm

The SNP wouldn't hesitate to manufacture some kind of 'irreconcilable' difference with a Corbyn-led Labour party if it ever came to a situation where a coalition govt. were possible. A Conservative govt. is politically expedient for them. Labour's route to power is found in divine intervention. Labour can't rely on the SNP at all.

Chobulous · Post by **Chobulous** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:08 am

Corbyn is obviously trying the Trump model of campaigning. "It's all fixed, the system is rigged. I'm the the candidate for the little guy".

He will singularly fail to address what is, whether we like it or not, the central issue of Brexit and suffer for it.

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:19 am

If he is to have any chance he has to make Brexit the centre piece now he has decided to run with it, how is he going to make it work for the people, it is his Achilles heel and he will be hounded about it unless he comes up with a viable vision.

Chobulous · Post by **Chobulous** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:27 am

It's symptomatic of the whole way he has addressed his "leadership" of the Labour Party. If he doesn't like it he just ignores it or gets all petulant when pressed on something that he doesn't want to discuss. He thinks he can approach this election in his usual 6th form debating society style but it won't work. The central theme is Brexit, the election was called because of Brexit, but that is the one area he will fail to address because his London Bubble powerbase are all staunch remainers. During the referendum he beahaved like a spoilt teenager that had been dragged away on holiday by his parents. He didn't want to be there and what was worse he didn't want his mates to see him there.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:22 am

Chobulous wrote:Corbyn is obviously trying the Trump model of campaigning. "It's all fixed, the system is rigged. I'm the the candidate for the little guy".

He will singularly fail to address what is, whether we like it or not, the central issue of Brexit and suffer for it.

I don't believe brexit is 'the' issue. Jobs, the NHS, schools, affordable housing, and transport were all cited as reasons people voted for brexit (believing that immigration had put these under strain). These are the key issues, and they've all become worse under seven years of Tory government - who are offering nothing but more austerity. As for campaigning as the rank outsider, he simply is the rank outsider.

Guich · Post by **Guich** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:31 am

Chobulous wrote:Corbyn is obviously trying the Trump model of campaigning. "It's all fixed, the system is rigged. I'm the the candidate for the little guy".

He will singularly fail to address what is, whether we like it or not, the central issue of Brexit and suffer for it.

Two entirely unsuitable candidates, but silly old JC doesn't understand the crucial difference when it comes to vote winning:

One nutter said he'd do everything to make his country prosperous and put America first.
The other nutter says he'll do everything he can to bankrupt his country which, he gives the impression, rightly or wrongly, he doesn't really like.

That isn't really a vote winner

Bin Ont Turf · Post by **Bin Ont Turf** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:35 am

Rich blue messers - 358
Red money frittering messers - 185
Whining Jock messers - 52
Orange sandal wearing messers - 20

scouseclaret · Post by **scouseclaret** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:49 am

Lib dems will do reasonably well as they have a once in a lifetime opportunity to appeal to the 47% of the electorate that didn't vote for Brexit.

Sadly, all that will do is split the anti-May vote and deliver her an even bigger majority. Not sure it will be quite as big as Blair managed, but I reckon it will be around the 144 Thatcher got in 1983 - the last time Labour had a Corbyn-type leader.

ThinLizzy · Post by **ThinLizzy** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 9:53 am

Living and working in Liverpool. Both my fiancee and I have been having chats with our co-workers, colleagues and customers. This is a hugely left wing 'safe' seat, or so you'd think. Both of us have yet to find a single one who would vote Labour. Lifelong Labour voters have openly said they are going to vote Tory. It's unprecedented. If that's a snapshot of Britain, where even scousers who have always voted Labour are prepared to vote Tory. Then I'd be very worried if I was Corbyn. The disillusionment is palpable. There is also a growing anger towards immigration here.
This is not my views necessarily, but when we're being told by lifelong Labour voters they are voting Tory. The writing is on the wall. It'll be a whitewash and don't be surprised if the SNP loses some constituencies too. They are not as popular up there as they'd like you to think.

Chobulous · Post by **Chobulous** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:01 am

AndrewJB wrote:I don't believe brexit is 'the' issue. Jobs, the NHS, schools, affordable housing, and transport were all cited as reasons people voted for brexit (believing that immigration had put these under strain). These are the key issues, and they've all become worse under seven years of Tory government - who are offering nothing but more austerity. As for campaigning as the rank outsider, he simply is the rank outsider.

They may be your key issues and I respect that, but they will not be the key issues to most of the electorate. This election has been firmly hung an the Brexit issue. I predict there will be very little discussion of anything else. This is not a normal GE campaign and Corbyn will miss the boat spectacularly.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:02 am

Hasn't Corbyn already said he would proceed with Brexit?

That sort of limits the options really if the other key issues won't be discussed or considered.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:24 am

Chobulous wrote:They may be your key issues and I respect that, but they will not be the key issues to most of the electorate. This election has been firmly hung an the Brexit issue. I predict there will be very little discussion of anything else. This is not a normal GE campaign and Corbyn will miss the boat spectacularly.

That'll mean there will be independence in Scotland as they overwhelmingly voted to stay in the EU.

The Tories haven't got a chance of convincing voters in Scotland that Brexit is the way to go.

LoveCurryPies · Post by **LoveCurryPies** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:40 am

If Labour suffer a massive defeat in the local elections they could on May 5th oust Corbyn. Not exactly sure who would replace him. I suspect the Conservatives fear this scenario.

I predict a massive Conservative landslide. Corbin is finished one way or another. Corbyn's Communist Labour party will have to be rebuilt or split and form another middle of the road Labour party. The post Nick Clegg Lib Dems are a waste of time and a vote!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:47 am

Anyone who thinks "brexit" isn't the issue is either in the Labour Party, a member of momentum or someone who thinks that the sun shines out of JCs arse.

LoveCurryPies · Post by **LoveCurryPies** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:52 am

How is Brexit the issue? The vote was cast and sadly the result known. There is no going back.

Anyone who votes for Brexit reasons is voting for the wrong reason and going to be hugely disappointed.

NottsClaret · Post by **NottsClaret** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:53 am

I don't have any loyalty to any party, but just a 'gut feeling' on this one. IF Labour didn't have Corbyn as leader, just a bog-standard competent MP, I think they'd do surprisingly well.

As it is, they're stuck with him and they're going to get absolutely walloped.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:54 am

LoveCurryPies wrote:If Labour suffer a massive defeat in the local elections they could on May 5th oust Corbyn. Not exactly sure who would replace him. I suspect the Conservatives fear this scenario.

I predict a massive Conservative landslide. Corbin is finished one way or another. Corbyn's Communist Labour party will have to be rebuilt or split and form another middle of the road Labour party. The post Nick Clegg Lib Dems are a waste of time and a vote!

There is a feeling the Lib-Dems will regain a few seats.

LoveCurryPies · Post by **LoveCurryPies** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:57 am

Spijed wrote:There is a feeling the Lib-Dems will regain a few seats.

Agreed but only a handful and from the disaffected mainstream Labour voters.

ablueclaret · Post by **ablueclaret** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:03 am

It's the people around Corbyn that will be his problem they just aren't media hardened, they haven't been pitted against the forces that wish them harm.
In the past there were always plenty of Labour MP 's who could hold their own in media debate, now it is hard to think of one.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:16 am

"That'll mean there will be independence in Scotland as they overwhelmingly voted to stay in the EU."

Why? Brexit and independence are very different things. They voted no last time to independence. Since then the price of oil has dived. The Scots are too canny to vote to be poorer and to probably have the euro, if and when it comes to it.

We can't be blackmailed by the krankie women. Plough on and get te best Brexit deal possible by negotiating from the strongest possible position.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:19 am

keir starmer would be labour's best bet. they're screwed with corbyn and there's little chance of him going.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:22 am

quoonbeatz wrote:keir starmer would be labour's best bet. they're screwed with corbyn and there's little chance of him going.

London constituency, named after a socialist, human rights lawyer. He'd get more **** from the Daily Mail than Corbyn

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:24 am

i dunno, he seems more tuned in to the real world than corbyn.

there's a real dearth of leadership candidates in the party.

NottsClaret · Post by **NottsClaret** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:25 am

There's a few good Labour MPs around Barnsley, as you'd expect. But they campaign for stuff like local schools, hospitals. Work with charities and the poor and try and get investment in areas that need it. They don't seem to have much of an opinion on Syria or Israel. Some don't even mention Zionism or Hitler.

So I can't see them even being on the radar of the top brass at Labour / Momentum these days.

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:26 am

Ukip annihilated lib dems up to fifty seats due to Brexit and pro European Labour voters,Scottish nationalists lose a few seats due to leader and a massive Tory majority.

Walton · Post by **Walton** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:32 am

Keir Starmer's cv does look impressive, but you're right, there's a vacuum of leaders across the whole electoral spectrum.

Other than Cameron I don't think the Tories have had a 'leader' since Thatcher though, they've all been weak, but it hasn't stopped them winning elections.

Labour does need a leader who commands respect though, because Corbyn doesn't, no matter how much I want him to.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:37 am

Chobulous · Post by **Chobulous** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:40 am

Brexit is going to be the central issue, but not whether Brexit happens or not. That ship has sailed and only Gina Miller/ NIck Clegg wannabes would think otherwise. The debate will be about the type of Brexit we want and who is best placed to go out and get it. That is going to be Corbyn's downfall because I don't believe that a) he will adequately address the issue and b) if he did address the issue anyone would give him any credence.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:41 am

If it be your will wrote:If this is to be another Brexit vote, which makes little sense to me considering both major parties are already committed to leaving, then it can only be on the terms of leaving. The Conservative terms will presumably be acceptable to their major donors:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 24548.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm not convinced their hopes for a post-Brexit UK will reflect the hopes of most Brexit voters. I can't, for instance, imagine better terms and conditons for workers will be at the forefront of their minds.

its definitely going to be another brexit vote, thats why its been called, its how may has billed it, to crush opposition to brexit and, as we've already seen, people are switching who they vote for (both ways) based on brexit.

and that's why we shouldn't really be having a general election.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:56 am

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:08 pm

Labour voters in 'northern England' will need to decide whether to vote lib/dem or conservative.

UKIP voters will need to decide whether to vote conservative or abstain.

Unfortunately, those are the two main issues.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:20 pm

If it be your will wrote:I don't get it. If you really, really, really wanted Brexit, then you've already won - time to sit down and have a few cans or something. Voting Conservative in order to say 'I really, really, really, really want Brexit' is a wasted vote. Might as well use that vote for the other important issues.

i fully agree but that's what its all going to be about.

you only need to look at other threads on here to see that people are voting tory to get the hard brexit they want.

every other issue is largely an irrelevance.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:32 pm

And because its all Brexit, it won't bring the country together.

It will give the Cons a massive majority though, which is all they care about.

Like everybody else, I'm hoping that the speech she made when she became MP is the cornerstone of her policies, or we are heading for real trouble.

bfcbri · Post by **bfcbri** » Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:35 pm

The thing I don't get in an General Election is when someone says I used to vote Labour but now I vote Tory or visa versa.

To me these two parties and their core beliefs are so far apart that I could never waiver from one to another. Maybe it is just me

UTC