Friday racing

[happyclaret17]

2 00 HAMIDANS GIRL…EW BET 4/1 generally
8 runners so hopefully all will go…was well backed from a bad draw at Windsor last time…good 4th and
Should be that bit fitter for the run.


2 30 MUSS SHOBROM 11/8 paddy power.....this ones debut was a much stronger race than the other favourites 2 runs…
I think Shobrom will be clear fav at the off..the dam sire is Compton place and they rarely win
On debut so there could be more than usual improvement.
If money comes for shanghai elastic, have a saver on her
as barron can get one ready first time out and she has a pacey pedigree and is an early filly.

3 10 ENCAPSULATED 15/2 bet 365
This is a horse I have followed…he can front run or be held up…from the 3 draw its important that he gets a good position early…the only other known pace in the race is rigolleto from stall 7….if encapsulated jumps properly he should be able to get the lead….its all about what happens in the first 10 seconds of the race….this horse is still nicely handicapped and can win this given a proper ride.

3 30 laying green light as previous trainer said must have cut in the ground and a switch back track…this horse will be really interesting if running in one of the Epsom handicaps provided ground is good or softer.

4 10 FIRE DIAMOND 7/2…win bet as can be held up and sometimes doesn’t get a clear run…due to running style this one has had plenty of hard luck….also had bad draws but is still well handicapped.

5 00 NELSONS BAY 16/1…loves this track and this particular distance is probably his best…comes through tiring front runners late and is held up….utc.

[colinclaret]

The early bird catches the worm cheers happy

[Mrpotatohead]

Thanks again for your work on these happy. What bets would you recommend with regards to these? Singles, combining some into doubles or a L15?

[ClaretinMyBlood]

Cheers Happy!
Picked a couple of combination bets from them.

[Carnsmerry12]

Green Light is one of the horses I follow and I backed him at Epsom on Derby day last year and he won very well at a big price ( I go to the Derby every year and always hope to win the Dash and Derby double). Maybe Green Light will be back at Epsom and if he is I will be backing him! I will watch his performance with interest today, his last run was "okay".

[happyclaret17]

I also backed him that day carnsmerry...from memory he was well into double figures..perhaps even 20/1...sluiced home but it was g/soft ground that day...still a well handicapped horse given right conditions but he hasnt got his ideal conditions today and if I owned him I wouldnt want to pick up any penalties prior to epsom.

mrpotatohead...I would say...very small ew all ew roll up....perhaps ew doubles...
ew single on NELSONS BAY...you need to win today if the 16/1 shot obliges.

at least 2 of these ( encapsulated and fire diamond ) need proper rides so I wouldnt want to put loads on multiples....if Hamidans girl is trying today then ew looks very very solid and I feel SHOBROM should be odds on.

good luck all.

[ClaretinMyBlood]

Hamidans girl placed at 13/2, nice start.

[happyclaret17]

today wasnt the day for that one...11/2 to 7/2 in early markets...slowly away today and pre race trading 8.4 on betfair...stayed on strongly for 3rd...one to follow...she will win at least 2 handicaps...particularly interesting if against fillies only...utc.

[Diesel]

Sorry to hijack your thread happy lad but I'm off to Haydock next Saturday I'd like my bets in place before I set off ideally, will you be looking at the card at all?

Any advice would be much appreciated.

Thanks in advance.

[Stevie2112]

Me too Diesel

[tim_noone]

Not a very good return - 5 everytime i back your tips i lose!! Backed kashgar on the positve write up in the bookies won,9/1 tomorrows another day.Im following you on the basis you put the work in regards the information,my theory is you cant do any worse than me...as im useless at gambling.today i got lucky with my choice.hopefully you pull em out the bag tomorrow.utc.

[happyclaret17]

If you are not managing to profit from these selections tim I would just give it up as a bad job....the best tipster in the business is Hugh Taylor in my opinion...his tips are free daily on the atr website...he tips a horse at 10/1 and that is the price that goes on the account...that price is never available...best scenario, you might get 7/1....his profit on turnover every season around the 35 percent mark....but realistically that is much much lower...probaly 15 percent.
these results below were all available at the prices indicated and produced 83 percent profit on turnover....so in other words if your total stakes on the selections were 500 quid then you returned 915 quid.


won 5/1
w 6/1
lost 7/4

lost 13/8
lost 11/10
won 7/4
lost 20/1
lost 3/1
won 6/4
lost 9/2

lost 11/4
lost 2/1
lost 12/1

lost 2/1
won 6/1
lost 10/1
won 5/1
(lay lost so profit laid 2.4) won 2 points
lost 10/1
lost 8/1
won 12/1
lost 5/1
lost 10/1
lost 9/2
( lay lost so profit laid 2.5) won 2 points
lost 11/1

lost 8/1
lost 7/1
lost 8/1
(lay lost so profit laid @ 2)

lost 8/1
won 2/1
lost 14/1
lost 4/1
lost 8/1
2nd 20/1 stakes returned
won 8/1
lost 8/1

lost 11/2
lost 14/1
( lay lost so profit laid @ 3) won 1 point

lost 5/1
tiny loss if selections backed ew 123456 as I did....10 points staked 9 returned.
won 12/1

lost 4/1
2nd 16/1 won stakes returned
lost 9/2

((lay lost so profit laid 2.3) won 2 points
lost 7/2
lost 3/1
won 11/1
( place lay lost so profit laid 1.76 ) won 3 points

45 bets
81.25 returned
11 winners...6/4...7/4...2/1...5/1...5/1...6/1...6/1...8/1...11/1...12/1...12/1...
6 profitable lays returned 12 points
51 bets or lays
93.25 points returned
83 percent profit on turnover (pot)
longest losing un 8 selections ( counting win bets only...not lays )
at the prices I play at I would expect much longer losing runs than this long term.

note that ew selections placing settled as only stakes returned....If they are big prices
and only playing 1 horse in a race I bet to return stakes as an insurance.
also note that many of the winners will have been traded off in running
and many of the losers protected in running.

the figures above are not a realistic picture of returns but every service out there uses these figures

since those results the sequence has been ( not including 2 of the 3 winners at thirsk last week which were selections for a lad going to the races only but they were backed by several forumites regardless )

losing lay minus 2 points
11/8 winner
11/8 and 11/4 winning ew double around 10/1 winner
6/1 loser
12/1 loser
7/1 winner
6/1 winner
2/1 winner
6/1 place
7/1 place
11/1 place
5/1 loser
9/2 loser
16/1 and 14/1 loser
8/1 loser
7/1 winner
7/2 loser
7/1 loser
7/1 loser
12/1 loser
3 point losing lay
12/1 loser
12/1 loser
16/1 winner
11/8 loser
8/1 loser
winning lay 2 point profit
7/2 loser
16/1 loser

so this 2nd set of results has had 28 selections returning 58.375 points which is better than doubling your money...more than 100 percent on turnover

this game aint for you tim if you havnt made a profit and your staking must be nuts....also...you have never shown up on a thread on a good day have you...strange that...plenty of forumites seem to have got the hang of things though...its simple really...get best price...make the singles pay and dont tie up too much of your money in multiples....there will be days where I really like 4 or 5 at 10/1 or less and suggest a lucky 15 etc but most days its a case of carving out a profit on the singles.

most punters harp on about winning or losing days...I am way way past that...if you try and profit on a day you will end up chasing...thats a recipe for disaster...my aim is to beat sp on a regular basis...do that and you will win...dont and you will lose.

[ClaretinMyBlood]

No need for justification Happy,
Keep up the good work!
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