Corbyn is now only five points behind.

[claretandy]

If you look at the Yougov numbers the over 65's are still voting Tory, the uptake in Labour is with the young and non voters, lets see if they turnout this time.

[Falcon]

Would be slightly funny to me if after all the expense and effort the Tories have gone to by calling this election, if the number of seats they have stays exactly the same.

[Bordeauxclaret]

They need to keep Dianne Abbott locked away to stand a chance.

I think she's locked away with Boris.

[If it be your will]

.

[If it be your will]

.

[Wile E Coyote]

the new labour support is all down to university types and faux rebellious rich kids daughters and sons, its like some right on trend.
Its been festering for a while now, hip policies about social provision and all round fairness, not a care about checking immigration until recently, its a flaccid mix of all sorts. Suits those with more sinister hidden agendas to , cosying up to labour now will benefit them at a later stage.
Alernative is that hag May and her insincere and deceiptful brand of cronies.
Add to that the apathy of the lumpen electorate, its hardly surprising the country is in a mess.

[Lancasterclaret]

Its an early start for the bank holiday from Wile E Coyote

[claretandy]

The latest poll has seen the Pound slide with the prospect of a Labour win.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pound- ... 2017-05-26" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[If it be your will]

.

[Lancasterclaret]

Even though I don't really want him to win, it would totally make anything possible in the future electorally.

Worth noting as well that the extremist party vote has still collapsed, despite its pledge on asteroid mining.

[Bordeauxclaret]

Someone described May's Social Care policy in the manifesto as her 'Devon Loch moment'. Perhaps they were right?

[If it be your will]

.

[Lancasterclaret]

It would be sadly typical of the last year if a policy that we actually probably need ended up blowing it for her.

She should stick to meaningless slogans and putting stuff on sides of buses.

[aggi]

The latest poll has seen the Pound slide with the prospect of a Labour win.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pound- ... 2017-05-26" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

When Brexit caused sterling to fall off a cliff we were told that sterling had been overvalued and this was fine and would boost our exports. Is this no longer the case?

[SammyBoy]

Its an early start for the bank holiday from Wile E Coyote

Wile E can never be accused of political or social tribalism, he just loathes everyone and everything in equal measure.

[1968claret]

I think she's locked away with Boris.

Thanks Bordeaux, you just provided me with an image that made a little bit of sick come up

[Bordeauxclaret]

Yeah sorry about that. Not a pretty thought is it.

[Bacchus]

Someone described May's Social Care policy in the manifesto as her 'Devon Loch moment'. Perhaps they were right?

Just been listening to a piece on this which had a fairly interesting perspective. The Tory strategists must have known how bad it would look to u-turn on a key manifesto policy within days of it's release. They must also have known how bad May would look in front of the cameras taking questions on it (it's why they've kept her as far away from scrutiny as possible for the whole campaign) - and in reality it was a u-turn performed with all the panache of a first time driver towing a caravan. So something pretty serious must have shown up on their radar (probably from their internal polling) about what that policy was going to do to them before they'd even consider going down that road. The calamity they were trying to manage on Monday was the lesser of two evils.

To follow from that, which group of people would have been most upset about this policy? Most likely the voters they'd normally regard as being in the bag without any need to work them. Is it possible that older,wealthier people were about to desert them? Would they have gone to Labour or just not voted at all? Will the u-turn win them back in greater numbers than they will lose through the appearance of incompetence and the damage to the dependable, strong & stable mantra?

[Bordeauxclaret]

Rumours are her close knit team didn't consult with many people before adding it in.
She's completely incompetent.

[john'sroseyspecs]

Yeah sorry about that. Not a pretty thought is it.

But the resulting child would be a synthesis of left and right, toff and commie. Would be our saviour. A bit like The Golden Child. We just need Eddie Murphy to look after it

[BennyD]

They weren't wrong about Brexit. The result ended up being within the margin of error of the last polls before the referendum. It's a myth that they got Brexit wrong.

And there was polling that predicted the Conservative win. But it was internal polling conducted for the Conservative campaign and so wasn't made public. Since then the public pollsters will have learned from the methods of the Tory pollsters so that that particular mistake can't happen again. Another error will happen at some poitn and there's be an inquest among the polling industry, but to dismiss polls the way you have is just lazy and unthinking and hopefully that's what Tory voters are doing.

The majority of polls predicted us to remain, and they were wrong whether or not they were within some mythical tolerance. The fact the remainers were so shocked proves my point more than yours.

The majority of polls predicted a hung parliament and they too were wrong. Therefore I wasn't being lazy and unthinking in dismissing the accuracy of polls, whatever you say, and the fact the polling industry felt the need to hold an inquest into what went wrong proves my point more than yours.

Btw, I'll be voting Tory whatever the polls say.

[Imploding Turtle]

The majority of polls predicted us to remain, and they were wrong whether or not they were within some mythical tolerance. The fact the remainers were so shocked proves my point more than yours.

The majority of polls predicted a hung parliament and they too were wrong. Therefore I wasn't being lazy and unthinking in dismissing the accuracy of polls, whatever you say, and the fact the polling industry felt the need to hold an inquest into what went wrong proves my point more than yours.

Btw, I'll be voting Tory whatever the polls say.

The public polls were flawed for the 2015 election. I've already said that so how can you be disagreeing with me on that?

The majority of Brexit polls showed remain leading because for the majority if the time remain was leading. Polls don't predict the future. A poll in January isn't supposed to be considered predictive of an election in June,and if you're reading polls as if they are then you're an idiot. They're supposed to be read as a snapshot of public opinion on the days the poll was taken.
Your suggestion that because a majority of polls in the months leading up to the referendum showing remain leading proves they were wrong is like looking at the majority of weather forecasts showing no rain on Monday to Saturday is proof that they were wrong because on Sunday it rained.

As for what you call a "mythical tolerance"? I think if you can't understand how margins of error word and why they exist then you probably shouldn't be talking about them unless if let's to ask how they work.

[Rowls]

The Brexit polls were broadly accurate. You're making two errors. The first one is that you're considering all Brexit polls as one and thinking that it's 19/1 that all of them are wrong. That's false.

The second mistake is that you're thinking that the odds of consecutive polls being outside the margin of error is 399/1. That's only true if you only evaluate one poll at random, and the one that follows. Every election cycle there are hundreds, maybe thousands of polls conducted. The probability that there are consecutive polls for which the actuality is outside the margin for error is pretty high. In every 20 "anomalous" polls you can expect that about one of them will be immediately followed by another "anomalous" poll.

Don't worry. Of course the polls were right. They were just outside of the actuality, as you put it.

Don't worry. You're not wrong. You're just outside of the actuality.

It's a shame Sean Spicer is gone. He could have used a phrase like that.

[Imploding Turtle]

Don't worry. Of course the polls were right. They were just outside of the actuality, as you put it.

Don't worry. You're not wrong. You're just outside of the actuality.

It's a shame Sean Spicer is gone. He could have used a phrase like that.

Debating with you is like playing chess with a pigeon. You don't know how to play, you knock over all the pieces and then strut around like you've won.

[Rowls]

http://www.thememesfactory.com/arguing- ... -a-pigeon/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[BennyD]

The public polls were flawed for the 2015 election. I've already said that so how can you be disagreeing with me on that?

The majority of Brexit polls showed remain leading because for the majority if the time remain was leading. Polls don't predict the future. A poll in January isn't supposed to be considered predictive of an election in June,and if you're reading polls as if they are then you're an idiot. They're supposed to be read as a snapshot of public opinion on the days the poll was taken.
Your suggestion that because a majority of polls in the months leading up to the referendum showing remain leading proves they were wrong is like looking at the majority of weather forecasts showing no rain on Monday to Saturday is proof that they were wrong because on Sunday it rained.

As for what you call a "mythical tolerance"? I think if you can't understand how margins of error word and why they exist then you probably shouldn't be talking about them unless if let's to ask how they work.

Tedious. It's too hot for trivial sh!t like this and life is too short for me to care about the intricacies of opinion polls. Find yourself an empty room and start an argument because, really, I don't care. Whoever gets the leasehold of number 10 is what matters not this trivia.

[Imploding Turtle]

This **** i hate is right but i'm too prideful to admit it so instead i'm going to attempt back away gracefully from my wrongness by pretending I don't care.

I've translated your post. I hope you don't mind.

[morpheus2]

Oooops! Can the unthinkable actually happen?

The unthinkable happened with Trumpton, the unthinkable happened with Brexit, if the unthinking public keep thinking about something unthinkable it seems to keep happening, I think.

[Imploding Turtle]

The unthinkable happened with Trumpton, the unthinkable happened with Brexit, if the unthinking public keep thinking about something unthinkable it seems to keep happening, I think.

It's funny how many people are saying "the opinion polls have been wrong before" to reject the fact of Corbyn being this close in the polls yet were absolutely convinced of a Tory landsline 4 weeks ago because of the polls.

Not to mention that Corbyn is picking up momentum and is rapidly closing the gap. Quite like how Brexit was way behind but as the issue moved forward towards the referendum the polls progressively tightened until Brexit was actually leading in most of them for a week or two before the final polls suggested it was too close to call. And look what won. He's definietly 2nd favourite, but not by a lot.

These people have a ridiculous confirmation bias that they can't seem to get over and it's kind of amusing to watch.

[Bordeauxclaret]

Might be time to add Fallon those in the cupboard

https://mobile.twitter.com/coinflippppe ... 24/video/1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;