Burnley GE Prediction Competition...

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:52 pm

At 10pm on June 8th, the Polls will close in the 650 UK Parliamentary Constituencies, and the counting will begin...

In 2015, on CM, I offered a small prize of £25, to whoever managed to guess the Burnley Constituency vote share most accurately. The prize was to be donated to a Charity of the winners choosing. I forget who won, but I posted a Screen- Shot of the donation's on-line receipt, and many posters had some fun with it...

I propose to do the same this time round...

As in 2015, there are five Candidates, three of whom stood last time. Gordon Birtwistle ( Lib/Dem ), Julie Cooper ( Lab ) & Tom Commis ( UKIP ). They're joined by Laura Fisk ( Green ) and Paul White ( Conservative ). Is your finger on the Political pulse, do you really know what people are thinking, or are you in a " Social Media " bubble, with like minded folk ??

Please post, listing each party with a predicted vote share, to one decimal point, ie: Labour 42.1%, Con 29.2 % etc...

For Reference, 2015 was:

Labour 37.6%
Lib/Dem 29.5%
UKIP 17.3%
Con 13.5%
Green 2.1%

Can I ask that we keep postings to the predictions and a few words giving reasons for your figures ? There are plenty of other threads to engage in heated discussions and vigorous debate.... Entries close at 9.55pm on 8th June !

Good Luck and UTC !!

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:02 pm

Labour 36%
Lib/Dem 25%
Con 22%
UKIP 13%
Green 4%

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:07 pm

Labour 39.4
Con 29.6
Lib 23.9
UKIP 5.2
Green 1.9

Pstotto · Post by **Pstotto** » Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:54 pm

66% of Burnley voted for Brexit. Go for it again.

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Fri Jun 02, 2017 1:45 pm

Conservative 43%
Labour 40%
Lib Dem 10%
UKIP 5%
Green 2%

Makes sense to vote for the party most likely to carry out your brexit vote.

A vote for Lib Dem, UKIP or Green is wasted.

tjgh25 · Post by **tjgh25** » Fri Jun 02, 2017 2:15 pm

Labour - 38%
Liberal - 28%
Conservative - 22%
UKIP - 10%
Green - 2%

Seen posts about Conservatives winning in Burnley on other threads... they have not won the seat in 107 years. Might be a bit of wishful thinking by some of the Tory supporters on here.

Foshiznik · Post by **Foshiznik** » Fri Jun 02, 2017 2:18 pm

Labour 42%
Lib/Dem 22%
UKIP 14%
Con 18%
Green 4%

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Sat Jun 03, 2017 3:02 pm

Labour 36
L/Dem 29
Con 22
UKIP 10
Green 3

turfytopper · Post by **turfytopper** » Sat Jun 03, 2017 3:54 pm

LABOUR 43.4%
CONS 36.2%
LIBERAL 10.1%
UKIP 5.2%
GREEN. 5.1%

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Sat Jun 03, 2017 8:01 pm

Labour 35%
Cons 34%
Lib Dem 19%
Ukip 10%
Green 2%

Mala591 wrote:
Makes sense to vote for the party most likely to carry out your brexit vote.
.

Labour and Tory policy on Brexit is pretty much identical isn't it?
So, who would you trust to get the best deal for a traditional Labour type seat like Burnley, Labour represented by Keir Starmer, (who always seems to talk a lot of sense), or TM and Boris, who can't be trusted on anything.
She can't even be relied upon to stand up for her own party in the election at present, let alone a constituency like Burnley.

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Sat Jun 03, 2017 9:11 pm

TM and Boris are not doing the negotiations, David Davis is who has shown time and time again (most recently multiple times on question time) the ridiculousness of Labours approach to negotiating.

Ultimately I'd trust the ones who don't approach the table saying 'we'll do a deal, no matter what' but then again, I negotiate for a living.

That's before you take into account that the likelihood is Labour will need to form a coalition with the Lib Dems and SNP, who most likely will have something to say about the Brexit negotiations.

Anyway:
Labour 37%
Cons 33%
Lib Dem 18%
Ukip 11%
Green 1%

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:56 pm

Just shy of 48 hours to go until the polls close...and still time to enter.. It's free and £25 to your favorite Charity to the winner !!

All are welcome....

conyoviejo · Post by **conyoviejo** » Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:04 pm

Labour 38%
Con 32%
Lib 20%
UKIP 8%
Green 2%

ClaretinMyBlood · Post by **ClaretinMyBlood** » Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:36 am

Cons 43%
Labour 33%
Lib Dem 12%
Ukip 11%
Green 1%

fatboy47 · Post by **fatboy47** » Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:42 am

Lab 44%
Con 29%
Lib 20%
Ukip 5%
Green 2%

Dom · Post by **Dom** » Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:43 am

Labour 37%
Lib Dems 29%
Cons 25%
UKIP 7%
Greens 2%

Big swing from UKIP to Cons but not enough to win the seat. Labours vote slight increase.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:54 am

Labour 37.6%
Lib/Dem 29.5%
UKIP 11.3%
Con 19.5%
Green 2.1%

Dum Spiro Spero · Post by **Dum Spiro Spero** » Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:30 am

Labour 34.9 %
Lib/Dem 33.9 %
Con 27.3 %
UKIP 2.5 %
Green 1.4 %

Guich · Post by **Guich** » Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:21 am

Lab 32%
Con 30%
Lib 28%
Ukip 9%
Green1%

Three way fight

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:32 pm

16 predictions so far...free to enter and £25 to your favorite Charity if you're closest..

This time tomorrow, the exit poll will be out and we'll probably have the first couple of results from Sunderland !!

Whatever your political colours, just take the time to go and vote, make your voice heard, whether you be 18 or 80, Communist or Conservative, UKIP or Unionist, take five minutes out of your life and VOTE !! There are many millions in the world who'd love to be able to exercise that right, without fear, or wondering who's looking over their shoulder ! Just do it !

SalouClaret · Post by **SalouClaret** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:01 am

Labour 38%
Lib dem 27%
Conservatives 26%
UKIP 8%
Green 1%

claretdom · Post by **claretdom** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 11:56 am

Lab 38.4%
Con 28.9%
Lib 20.5%
UKIP 10.9%
Green 1.3%

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:05 pm

I'll have a go

Lab 34.2%
Con 22.8%
Lib Dem 21%
UKIP 12.5%
Green 1.5%

Walton · Post by **Walton** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:09 pm

Labour 36.8%
Tories 33.7%
Lib Dem 21.4%
UKIP 6.4%
Green 1.7%

SammyBoy · Post by **SammyBoy** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:43 pm

Labour 39.8%
Con 27.5%
Lib Dem 25.4%
UKIP 5.1%
Green 2.2%

Falcon · Post by **Falcon** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:48 pm

Go on then I'll have a bash

Labour 39.3%
Con 25.2%
Lib/Dem 23.8%
UKIP 10.2%
Green 1.5%

Based on nothing in particular. Who knows how it will go in this crazy election.

I luv my wife · Post by **I luv my wife** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:05 pm

Big G ( Libdem)120 %
Labour. 0%
Conservative. 0% ( slight problem with the rozzers )
UKIP. 0% ( gone abroad )
Green Party 0% ( last seen stood in a field pointing at the moon )

Actually I think
Labour 31%
Conservative 30%
Lib dem. 27%
UKIP. 10%
Green Party. 2%

Charity prosecco association

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:31 pm

Interesting that only 10 of the entrants see the Labour vote dropping. If that's the case then they should get home easily
I'll be amazed if that's the case.
Surely there'll be some "brexiteers" who voted Labour last time who'll defect to Tory. (For no obvious reason IMO, but that seems to be the way some people think).
If the Labour percentage holds up, then I reckon it will be at the expense of the Lib Dems.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:36 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Interesting that only 10 of the entrants see the Labour vote dropping. If that's the case then they should get home easily
I'll be amazed if that's the case.
Surely there'll be some "brexiteers" who voted Labour last time who'll defect to Tory. (For no obvious reason IMO, but that seems to be the way some people think).
If the Labour percentage holds up, then I reckon it will be at the expense of the Lib Dems.

A lot of UKIP votes last time. I reckon some of those will go back to Labour.

SammyBoy · Post by **SammyBoy** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:38 pm

dsr wrote:A lot of UKIP votes last time. I reckon some of those will go back to Labour.

I reckon some Lib Dems will vote Labour as well given how much of a non-entity they've been this time and last time around.

MrTopTier · Post by **MrTopTier** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:38 pm

Conservative 24 %
Labour 36.2
Lib Dem 25.3%
UKIP 11.1%
Green 2.3%

Steddyman · Post by **Steddyman** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:43 pm

Labour 47%
Conservation 36%
Lib Dem 9%
UKIP 6%
Green 2%

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 5:48 pm

Labour are trying get to pull off a smoke and mirrors job on Brexit and have it both ways. I just hope that people see through it.

They don't intend to control immigration, they have aleady conceded on European nationals staying here whether or not brits can stay abroad and want to stay in the single market come what may. That is hardly different from now.

Don't be conned if you want a proper Brexit where we control matters going forward.

bobinho · Post by **bobinho** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 6:06 pm

Dress it up in women's clothes and call it Barbara all ya like. Makes absolute sense to vote for the party who you think will deliver the best brexit. We were 66% in favour of it, so this should be easy. A Tory govt and a labour MP? No thanks.

Desperately want to believe in the Labour Party, but Jeremy corbyn I wouldn't follow in a conga.

I want locally to see the brexit vote backed up by....
Tory
Lib Dem
Green
UKIP
Labour. They need a MASSIVE rethink.

But this is Burnley so it'll probably be
Lab 38%
Lib Dem 29%
Tory 21%
UKIP 9%
Green 2%
??? 1%

PutTheWheelieBinsOut · Post by **PutTheWheelieBinsOut** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 6:10 pm

Labour 42 %
Conservatives 29 %
Lib Dems 18 %
UKIP 9 %
Green 2 %

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:11 pm

bobinho wrote: I want locally to see the brexit vote backed up by....
Tory
Lib Dem
Green
UKIP
Labour. They need a MASSIVE rethink.

%

Yes. That makes lots of sense.
Vote Tory 1st (for Brexit), and put Labour last (who are for Brexit, and might - arguably secure a deal that's more beneficial for the lower paid, workers etc, rather than looking after the City / bankers etc.).
Meanwhile you'd vote 2nd for the Lib Dems who'd stop Brexit altogether, and the Greens 3rd who want a 2nd referendum on the final deal.
Then you put Ukip 4th! Can you explain the logic?

Steddyman · Post by **Steddyman** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:47 pm

bobinho wrote:Dress it up in women's clothes and call it Barbara all ya like. Makes absolute sense to vote for the party who you think will deliver the best brexit. We were 66% in favour of it, so this should be easy. A Tory govt and a labour MP? No thanks.

Did we? I thought the final vote was 52% Yes, 48% No and that's before anyone knew the consequences (and were blatantly lied to).

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:08 pm

Steddyman wrote:Did we? I thought the final vote was 52% Yes, 48% No and that's before anyone knew the consequences (and were blatantly lied to).

The vote in the Burnley Counting area was 66% in favour of leave....

Steddyman · Post by **Steddyman** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:15 pm

Oh yes. Forgot the UKIP vote was so high here.

Goalposts · Post by **Goalposts** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:57 pm

Labour 36.5%
Con 23%
Lib 22%
UKIP 12%
Green 2%

Cheshire Cherry · Post by **Cheshire Cherry** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:16 pm

Labour 35.6%
Lib Dem 33.2%
Con 25.1%
UKIP 4.4%
Green 1.7%

bobinho · Post by **bobinho** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:13 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Yes. That makes lots of sense.
Vote Tory 1st (for Brexit), and put Labour last (who are for Brexit, and might - arguably secure a deal that's more beneficial for the lower paid, workers etc, rather than looking after the City / bankers etc.).
Meanwhile you'd vote 2nd for the Lib Dems who'd stop Brexit altogether, and the Greens 3rd who want a 2nd referendum on the final deal.
Then you put Ukip 4th! Can you explain the logic?

No. But then I don't have to. The one thing that matters to me is that labour have a disastrous election. They need to start again, because this Labour Party quite obviously can't be and shouldn't be trusted with the treasury keys. I want to believe, I really do, but as much as you spout on about them being the party for the poor and the workers, benefits have to be paid for. Where will they get the money from?

bobinho · Post by **bobinho** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:24 pm

Steddyman wrote:Did we? I thought the final vote was 52% Yes, 48% No and that's before anyone knew the consequences (and were blatantly lied to).

Across the country, yes those figures are correct. Leave wins - just. But a win none the less. Burnley was 66% in favour of leave. That's a big BIG win for leave.

What are the consequences? You don't know do you? No-one does. Probably because we haven't left yet. It's almost two years away. So don't get bogged down in the weeds when it's possible there might not be any. Brexit hasn't failed. Have you made your mind up that it has? The best chance of getting this right is TM at the moment. JC and his Labour Party wouldn't have a clue where to start with it, I'm not entirely sure they have accepted the result yet! That wouldn't be good for us to get to that negotiating table with.

What lies? You obviously heard what you wanted to hear, and made the rest up.

We're coming out. You will have to deal with it. It's democracy. Majority wins. That's how it is. Not happy? Try China. But whatever you do, PLEASE stop with this "consequences" and "we've been lied to" ********. At least wait for it to fail before declaring it a failure. At this moment in time, we just don't know.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:43 pm

bobinho wrote:No. But then I don't have to. The one thing that matters to me is that labour have a disastrous election. They need to start again, because this Labour Party quite obviously can't be and shouldn't be trusted with the treasury keys. I want to believe, I really do, but as much as you spout on about them being the party for the poor and the workers, benefits have to be paid for. Where will they get the money from?

Several things - although i can't be bothered really, but:
First one, if wages for the lowest paid rise, then many will be brought out of benefits
Second one, if we collect all our taxes properly and have fairer tax system then we will get more money in
(We have the lowest corporation tax rates in Europe)
Third one, far and away the biggest proportion of benefits goes on the state pension. The overwhelming majority of the country don't favour cutting the pension
And one more thing the last Labour Govt. spent £850 billion on bailing out the banks. This makes their current spending plans look like a drop in the ocean by comparison.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:23 am

Exit poll proved to be a surprise to most, although the BBC seem to be rowing back on some of their more extreme forecasts... Burnley Result expected between 2.30 - 3.30, and I'll put up the Prediction Competition Result up in the morning...

SammyBoy · Post by **SammyBoy** » Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:55 am

Lab - 46.7%
Tory - 30.9%
Lib Dem - 15%
UKIP - 6.1%
Green - 1.1

I think the vote share in Burnley was roughly as per the above (probably rounded a couple of decimal points one way or the other). It's late though and I could be wrong

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:59 am

RESULT......

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/cons ... /E14000609

We had 29 entries, and I added the differences for all predictions together...the Winner was, FATBOY47..with a low score of 11.7

Lab 46.7 FB47 44 - 2.7
Con 31.0 FB47 29 - 2.0
L/D 15.0 FB47 20 - 5.0
UKIP 6.1 FB47 5 - 1.1
GR 1.1 FB47 2 - 0.9

Honorable mentions to STEDDYMAN, 2nd on 12.3, and PUTTHEWHEELIEBINSOUT, 3rd on 13.5....

If anyone thinks I've made a Horlicks of it, please let me know ... otherwise if FATBOY47 could let me know his Charity of choice, then I shall make the appropriate arrangements... Thanks all and UTC !

Steddyman · Post by **Steddyman** » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:59 am

Woohoo. Thanks to the people of Burnley for turning from hate to hope.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:18 pm

Still waiting for our winner to post his Charity of choice, although he may still be fielding job offers from YouGov and MORI....

turfytopper · Post by **turfytopper** » Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:50 pm

Did a 14.1...well done for organising