General Election 2017 Mega Thread

[Dom]

Sunderland south in now.
Just under 50% of the vote for Labour. Expected around 60% on the model.

[BleedingClaret]

If the exit poll is right
Perfect for Corbyn
He doesn't have to lead, couldn't do it.
He can just obstruct, all he's ever done.
He and his cronies, Abbott, McDonnell etc damage the British establishment, what they've strived for for years.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

Bigger Tory vote in Sunderland than predicted.

[Imploding Turtle]

Sunderland south in now.
Just under 50% of the vote for Labour. Expected around 60% on the model.

Your maths is bad. lol Well above 50% but below the 68% projected.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

https://twitter.com/oliverkaytimes/stat ... 8799070212" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[taio]

Sunderland exit poll predicted 3% swing to Labour; actual 3.5% to Tory.

[Imploding Turtle]

One thing looks certain, the Up The Clarets projection of 359 Tory seats looks wrong.

[ClaretAndJew]

Burnley hold labour
Pendle hold conservative

[Dom]

Yep brain fart. Labour won 59% of the vote in Sunderland south. Polls had it at 68%. Lower turnout than Newcastle at 61%

[Dom]

Burnley hold labour
Pendle hold conservative

Result due at 3am. Not official that.

[ClaretAndJew]

Fair. Someone tweeted it who looked official

[accy sue]

I'm more nervous now, with these exit polls, than I've been all week... I cannot cope with waking up on the sofa to another brexit/Trump

[SonofPog]

Exit polls been wrong loads recently. Early results support theyre just as wrong this time. Interesting night ahead though, which lets face it, even if she wins it's damaged TM. Hardly made her stronger.

[Sidney1st]

Anyone know who the lass is on ITV?

[Spijed]

Looking like Amber Rudd is going to lose her seat to Labour.

[accy sue]

Exit polls been wrong loads recently. Early results support theyre just as wrong this time. Interesting night ahead though, which lets face it, even if she wins it's damaged TM. Hardly made her stronger.

Or stabler

Thanks Sid!

[Spijed]

Exit polls been wrong loads recently. Early results support theyre just as wrong this time. Interesting night ahead though, which lets face it, even if she wins it's damaged TM. Hardly made her stronger.

The expert on Sky seemed to be confident that they are never more than 20 seats out. Even when they predicted a hung parliament in 1992 the Conservatives ended up with a majority of 10.

A similar result could very well happen, which is where we are now.

[accy sue]

Alex Salmond to lose his seat?

[SonofPog]

I think we've all had enough of experts no

Seriously, I, sure he's confident, but the last two have been way out.

[accy sue]

Does anyone know how to turn subtitles off with a bt remote? I'm cat and house sitting for a friend and have accidentally put it on! Driving me bonkers!

[Imploding Turtle]

The expert on Sky seemed to be confident that they are never more than 20 seats out. Even when they predicted a hung parliament in 1992 the Conservatives ended up with a majority of 10.

A similar result could very well happen, which is where we are now.

Yeah, people shouldn't start expecting a hung parliament cos there's still a good chance that these people will still have a majority. You're only setting yourself up for disappointment if you're looking at it that way.

The way to look at this is that the Tories were expecting beyond a 100 seat majority, and even a 50-60 majority on election day. A tiny majority is still a great success for the left against the Tory hate machine that has gone into overdrive since this election was called. Fear will still have triumphed, but not as much as anyone expected.

[accy sue]

It's defs a win for JC, hwever you look at it - the back stabbers can hang their heads in shame.

[Sidney1st]

Does anyone know how to turn subtitles off with a bt remote? I'm cat and house sitting for a friend and have accidentally put it on! Driving me bonkers!

Look for the * (star) button.

[accy sue]

no star - but when I studied the remote I actually found the 'sub' button! Thanks again Sid!

[Imploding Turtle]

It's defs a win for JC, hwever you look at it - the back stabbers can hang their heads in shame.

I'd forgot about those. Imagine if the PLP hadn't been working to userp the will of the Labour membership for the last 2 years.

[accy sue]

I'd forgot about those. Imagine if the PLP hadn't been working to userp the will of the Labour membership for the last 2 years.

How the actual hell could you forget them? I voted thru gritted teeth for one of them today... A ittle mealy mouthed nobody who thought he was bigger and better than JC... I'll pay my subs for as long as it takes to reselect him!

[Imploding Turtle]

Good night for Ruth Davidson by the looks of it. If the Tories do replace May i hope it's with her because she's a lot of fun and nothing about her suggests she's as far-right as Thesesa May seems willing to go. A much more centre-right mind behind that "shovel-face" of hers.

[accy sue]

what's the deposit losing vote level these days? 5000?

[ksrclaret]

Good result for Labour in Swindon.

Hopefully it's indicative of a better performance for Labour in the South.

[BleedingClaret]

I'd forgot about those. Imagine if the PLP hadn't been working to userp the will of the Labour membership for the last 2 years.

Imagine if the exit poll didn't amount to asking just 33 people leaving a Highbury crowd with 50,000 in attendance whether they were a Wenger stayer or goer, imagine if there'd also been a postal vote of the non present 10,000 ticket holders that weren't included at all, imagine if some got all giddy about this.

[Imploding Turtle]

what's the deposit losing vote level these days? 5000?

5% i believe

[accy sue]

I'm still holding my breath - but with a tiny 'dare to dream' flicker of a flame! I'm sure Jeremy will find a couple of places in his chaotic cabinet for' the less deadly of the cons! Suggestions please!

[Garnerssoap]

Students turned out in Newcastle. Good for them.

[accy sue]

Here's JV! take the walk of shame Mr Vine!

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

Labour expected to gain in Chelsea and Kensington!

[Imploding Turtle]

Imagine if the exit poll didn't amount to asking just 33 people leaving a Highbury crowd with 50,000 in attendance whether they were a Wenger stayer or goer, imagine if there'd also been a postal vote of the non present 10,000 ticket holders that weren't included at all, imagine if some got all giddy about this.

Yeah, but it's not.

66 people in a crowd of 100,000 is a better sample than 33 in a crowd of 50,000. 99 in a crowd of 150,000 is better than either. And 30,000 among even 100,000,000 is far, far better than all of those. You're making the mistake of assuming that sample sizes scale down well when you scaled down the percentage of what it is sampling. It's not, because it takes only 1 person to create a big swing of a few percent in your sample of 33, but in a sample of 3,333 it would take 111 people to acheive the same swing. That's a huge difference and much more difficult.

[Damo]

The prospect of having the workers pay for 3 years of tossing it off was bound to get the students to turn out to be fair

[BleedingClaret]

Yeah, but it's not.

66 people in a crowd of 100,000 is a better sample than 33 in a crowd of 50,000. 99 in a crowd of 150,000 is better than either. And 30,000 among even 100,000,000 is far, far better than all of those. You're making the mistake of assuming that sample sizes scale down well when you scaled down the percentage of what it is sampling. It's not, because it takes only 1 person to create a big swing of a few percent in your sample of 33, but in a sample of 3,333 it would take 111 people to acheive the same swing. That's a huge difference and much more difficult.

In 111 points of survey with 33 people surveyed it would take only 1 at each venue to sway it

[Imploding Turtle]

The prospect of having the workers pay for 3 years of tossing it off was bound to get the students to turn out to be fair

Your prejudices are showing.

[Bin Ont Turf]

I've just seen Jeremy Vine on a virtual Downing St talking about blue brick roads and red brick roads, and I haven't had any drugs.

[accy sue]

Ken Clarke calls for less slogans and more policies! sounds a bit defeatist to me!

[Imploding Turtle]

I've just seen Jeremy Vine on a virtual Downing St talking about blue brick roads and red brick roads, and I haven't had any drugs.

Why haven't you had any drugs?

[Imploding Turtle]

Tory majority odds are sitting at 2.12 out from 1.5 about an hour ago when i was looking like they were overperforming the exit poll.

[Imploding Turtle]

Tory majority odds are sitting at 2.12 out from 1.5 about an hour ago when i was looking like they were overperforming the exit poll.

Ignore that, they've just jumped to 2.62. Someone's lost a seat??

[accy sue]

I've just seen Jeremy Vine on a virtual Downing St talking about blue brick roads and red brick roads, and I haven't had any drugs.

my best quote tonight so far! (no drugs for me either, but I am learning the quote function!)

[Bin Ont Turf]

Why haven't you had any drugs?

I'm too old for that carry on.

[Damo]

Ignore that, they've just jumped to 2.62. Someone's lost a seat??

Or a large sum of money

[accy sue]

Recunt for Rudd?

I have a problem with my o key! think I spilt a bit of prosecco on it when we beat palace away!

[accy sue]

haha I won't edit - but corrected to recount!

[Bin Ont Turf]

Recunt for Rudd?