Housing Market Post Brexit

diamondpocket · Post by **diamondpocket** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 3:26 pm

Hi all,
I'm just wondering what everyone's opinions are on the Topic Subject; is it a good time to buy at the moment (within the next 12 months)? Are prices likely to change much over the next few years? Could Brexit increase house prices? I see Burnley as having some of the cheapest in the country and have already seen online some decent potential offers for cheap houses.
Any local & national knowledge would be interesting to hear

TheOriginalLongsider · Post by **TheOriginalLongsider** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 3:43 pm

Im buying a house in Cardiff and the market there is booming. Houses get snapped up within a few days. I just had to pay over the asking price.

South West Claret. · Post by **South West Claret.** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:22 pm

diamondpocket wrote:Hi all,
I'm just wondering what everyone's opinions are on the Topic Subject; is it a good time to buy at the moment (within the next 12 months)? Are prices likely to change much over the next few years? Could Brexit increase house prices? I see Burnley as having some of the cheapest in the country and have already seen online some decent potential offers for cheap houses.
Any local & national knowledge would be interesting to hear

Generally and I can only stress the word I can only see the prices drifting downwards all the wile this Brexi uncertainty continues.

As always the market does not like uncertainty.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:25 pm

Are prices falling due to lenders more reluctant to.. well.. lend?

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:42 pm

All it needs is for interest rates to rise even slightly within the next twelve months and the whole picture changes.

TheOriginalLongsider · Post by **TheOriginalLongsider** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:48 pm

There is a lack of family houses on the market at the moment - thats driving prices up. Prices only seem to be down for the rental-type properties because of the new buy to let tax situation - i.e. landlords getting rid because they cant afford them

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:12 pm

Depends what you're buying I suppose.

New build houses aren't very good and people are trying to re-sell them hoping people won't pay attention when buying.

House across the road from me has been reduced 3 times already.

Brexit hasn't got much to do with the house prices, the housing market crashes every so often anyway, I can recall 3 times and I'm only 37.

Barrowfordclaret · Post by **Barrowfordclaret** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:19 pm

If there are fewer people in the country surely house prices will come down (supply and demand)

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:32 pm

Nah, because the house builders are deliberately keeping supply short so prices stay inflated as a result.

It would take millions to leave for there to suddenly be too many houses and that isn't going to happen.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 5:41 pm

To be fair, house building is at a low ebb in most areas due to market uncertainty to some extent but, far more significantly, a shortage of skilled labour.
And guess who we might need to help ease that shortage ?

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:10 pm

Houses have been in short supply for years, and that's done on purpose to keep prices inflated.

It doesn't matter how many workers we've got etc, they're built at a set rate on purpose.

Winstonswhite · Post by **Winstonswhite** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:27 pm

Sidney1st wrote:Houses have been in short supply for years, and that's done on purpose to keep prices inflated.

It doesn't matter how many workers we've got etc, they're built at a set rate on purpose.

House builders don't build houses because they want to keep house prices inflated?

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:42 pm

Its called keeping prices inflated.

If supply and demand is equal then house prices would drop, its quite simple.

They buy up various bits of land and sit on them for a while before they build the houses etc.

TractorFace · Post by **TractorFace** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:47 pm

Interest rates can't keep as low as this indefinitely. If buying, make sure you can afford to pay an increase of at least a couple of percent. Maybe even more.

Winstonswhite · Post by **Winstonswhite** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:48 pm

Sidney1st wrote:Its called keeping prices inflated.

If supply and demand is equal then house prices would drop, its quite simple.

They buy up various bits of land and sit on them for a while before they build the houses etc.

Right I never knew that.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:55 pm

Didn't know they sat on land?

They've been at it for years.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:56 pm

Sidney1st wrote:Its called keeping prices inflated.

If supply and demand is equal then house prices would drop, its quite simple.

They buy up various bits of land and sit on them for a while before they build the houses etc.

Not in the East Midlands, they don't. The builders - the big guns and the tiddlers - are going mad for land to buy and get started on.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:58 pm

Supermarkets do it too, sometimes to build on and other times to stop rivals buying land to build on.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:01 pm

That's true. Tesco did it here in Burton and held on to it for years until Staffs County Council forced their hand.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:09 pm

Back on topic though, if house prices drop it wont be due to Brexit, its a regular occurrence anyway.

Blackrod · Post by **Blackrod** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:45 pm

New builds and resales fly off the shelf in a good location. Many new housebuders build in poor quality areas on poor quality plots of land as it is cheap for them to acquire. Location is everything. A hut in Mayfair will be expensive.

mdd2 · Post by **mdd2** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:10 pm

Would be good if they did drop post brexit but until we build more houses and more social houses prices will not fall by much as another poster pointed out-supply and demand

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:30 pm

Both main political parties want to build more council housing, so expect that to push prices down a little. We might also see action against homes left vacant.

Garnerssoap · Post by **Garnerssoap** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:28 pm

New builds in the ribble valley that we're meant to fly off the shelves - off plan etc - are now built and empty. All sorts of incentives being offered

Whether you blame brexit uncertainty, fear of possible interest rate rises or being 2 hours late paying your gas bill stopping you getting a mortgage, but someats brewing

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:41 pm

I bought my house in 1999 and since then the public sector wage I then had has more or less doubled (I'm not in it now but I know the rates) and the house price has doubled then doubled again. In other words it would have to halve to reflect the growth in wages. Or wages double.

Then we have the issue of interest rates being at their lowest for 100+ years. When they go up, demand will fall.
We also have the issue of migration possibly coming down. When it does, demand will fall.

So all things being equal I cannot see house prices staying where they are, unless they are artifically propped up. I see a fall of about 20% in real terms over 5-10 years.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:44 pm

New builds aren't built very well is possibly part of the problem.
People offered incentives to move in early only to find their nice shiny new houses are actually rubbish.
Compo lawsuits usually follow.

Even when people aren't moving in early, they're still finding a lot of issues with the houses from poor heating systems to driveways not being wide enough to fit a car of a decent size and allow the doors to be opened etc.

A housing estate near me wasn't built with enough of the basic utilities being ready and then there were issues with the phone lines, meaning the internet wouldn't work etc.
Total meltdowns at that point because people are paying £300k plus for houses with no internet access

, amongst other issues like poorly fitted doors, heating, carpets etc.

No Ney Never · Post by **No Ney Never** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:59 pm

Spot on Sidney. The quality of new builds is crap and they're small in dimensions. Estates full of identical houses and little in the way of modern energy saving technology. They may be better insulated than older houses but that's about as far as it goes, criminal in today's era. Housing, shopping centres and industrial estates are aesthetically poor and lack imagination and originality.

Garnerssoap · Post by **Garnerssoap** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:13 pm

What I don't get is - the likes of wimpy, barratts etc can get planning permission to build hundreds of identikit dull energy sapping boxes on green belt fields that need utilities- yet you can't get planning permission to build one self sufficient eco lodge in the middle of nowhere anywhere in Lancashire
It's as though our planners pander to corporations but maybe I'm para

TractorFace · Post by **TractorFace** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:16 pm

Maybe some hefty donations to political parities will help. Sure does with the big companies.

Rileybobs · Post by **Rileybobs** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:10 am

Garnerssoap wrote:What I don't get is - the likes of wimpy, barratts etc can get planning permission to build hundreds of identikit dull energy sapping boxes on green belt fields that need utilities- yet you can't get planning permission to build one self sufficient eco lodge in the middle of nowhere anywhere in Lancashire
It's as though our planners pander to corporations but maybe I'm para

Councils have housing targets to meet.

Dano1bfc · Post by **Dano1bfc** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:40 am

I think perhaps the biggest consideration is perhaps interest rates . Although one consideration is that house value will most of the time rise.... eventually! The one certainty in my honest opinion is that it will always be cheaper than renting .
So for example if interest rates were to rise then the amount it your borrowing would be less on your desired house . BUT you would pay back more on the money borrowed therefore increasing your mortgage payments to a certain level .
If the interest rates were to stay low and house prices rise then you still may only be able to afford the same hose as the mortgage payments maybe roughly the same. One thing to bare in mind is that base rate is approx 0.5% at the moment hence there are very attractive fixed rate deals out there .
If you can afford it then the longer you fix then the longer you know what your payments will be . Just something to perhaps bear in mind but I'm sure your mortgage advisor will give you the low down .

No Ney Never · Post by **No Ney Never** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:44 am

We're told that there isn't enough green belt to build on, yet everytime I look out of the window of an aeroplane there doesn't look any shortage of land from what I can see.

Dano1bfc · Post by **Dano1bfc** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:46 am

Ps sorry for spelling mistakes ... written on my phone . And when I said cheaper was meant in the long term hopefully u will get some money back . Like I said I would take some free mortgage advice

Dano1bfc · Post by **Dano1bfc** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:48 am

But wer going to need this land for British farming post brexit no net never!

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:02 am

I've got an excellent credit rating and been renting since my Dad died about 4 years ago.
I did over (a lot) last year - enough to, according to the websites, get a 220k mortgage. And they then turn around and say, you're self employed - Computer says no. I say, ok, I'll put £20k down.. nah. It's bloody crazy.

People say renting it dead money - yeah, it is - but it's also bloody less stressful.

No Ney Never · Post by **No Ney Never** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:08 am

Dano1bfc wrote:But wer going to need this land for British farming post brexit no net never!

I don't think we're struggling for food producing land otherwise most people wouldn't plant flowers and have a lawn in their garden.

Dano1bfc · Post by **Dano1bfc** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:22 am

No Nay Never ... I said in jest . Although perhaps make sure I have enough space for a veg plot if the prices in the supermarkets are going to rise like wer led to believe in the papers .

Factual Frank . I'm sorry to hear about your dad .And I agree about how stressful the whole mortgage thing is , made me ill with worry !!!
Have u tried London and Country mortgages , I think they might have specialist lenders for self employed folk like your good self bud? P.s I think they're free too ... always a bonus .

No Ney Never · Post by **No Ney Never** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:45 am

Dano1bfc wrote:No Nay Never ... I said in jest . Although perhaps make sure I have enough space for a veg plot if the prices in the supermarkets are going to rise like wer led to believe in the papers .

I'm still trying to work out what half these emojies represent.
Hydroponics and a small greenhouse in the attic will earn you enough to cover rising prices in the supermarket, just divint get caught!

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 5:31 am

It is odd how much emphasis is placed on owning your own home here in the UK when in other countries like Germany renting is the norm and done by the majority.

COYC73 · Post by **COYC73** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:45 am

FactualFrank wrote:I've got an excellent credit rating and been renting since my Dad died about 4 years ago.
I did over (a lot) last year - enough to, according to the websites, get a 220k mortgage. And they then turn around and say, you're self employed - Computer says no. I say, ok, I'll put £20k down.. nah. It's bloody crazy.

People say renting it dead money - yeah, it is - but it's also bloody less stressful.

I've always believed that renting was dead money.....The way I saw it was you could buy a house with a mortgage (a lot of times for less money per month than renting) for 25 years.....or you could rent a house and pay the increasing rent year after year after year for the rest of your life! It seemed like a no brainier to me.....

A lot of my friends at the time said "oh...don't buy....it's too stressful" and "You'd never catch me falling into the mortgage trap" etc etc etc.....What a load of crap! It's one of the best things we did was buy our house.....and also buying it as early as we did! We bought our semi detached for £45k in 1996 (Seemed as awful lot back then). It worked out cheaper than renting at the time though....even though interest rate back then was around 7% on the mortgage! We got on a lifetime tracker mortgage where we pay 1% above the base rate.....We love our house so never moved, never re-mortgaged, and our £45k house is now worth around £200k and we pay our final mortgage payment in only 4 years time......

The people who were telling me not to buy, are still renting.....

Dom · Post by **Dom** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 9:11 am

It's a sellers market which is pushing prices up and keeping them up there.
We bought a house last month and although we are much happier with the house we bought, we had an offer accepted only to be gazumped three days later which f***ed me off as I had done my mortgage application. On the house we bought it was on the market for 3 days and we paid asking price.
Good houses were coming on the market and being sold in a matter of days.

TractorFace · Post by **TractorFace** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:38 am

Best advice I was given: Consider your house to be your home, forget the peaks and troughs in the housing market. Live there and hopefully be happy. This is what my parents generation did and I guess they were better for it. They sure didn't spend their life obsessing about the housing market or how much the house up the street/ave was sold for. Then again, they didn't have wall-to-wall property porn on the TV everyday.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:41 am

I dunno what effect Brexit will have on this but we do need to sort out this.

The aspiration to have your own house is probably one of the few core sense of "Britishness" that I can think of. Its not right for people working their nuts off not to be able to afford to buy a house.

Foshiznik · Post by **Foshiznik** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:56 am

COYC73 wrote:I've always believed that renting was dead money.....The way I saw it was you could buy a house with a mortgage (a lot of times for less money per month than renting) for 25 years.....or you could rent a house and pay the increasing rent year after year after year for the rest of your life! It seemed like a no brainier to me.....

A lot of my friends at the time said "oh...don't buy....it's too stressful" and "You'd never catch me falling into the mortgage trap" etc etc etc.....What a load of crap! It's one of the best things we did was buy our house.....and also buying it as early as we did! We bought our semi detached for £45k in 1996 (Seemed as awful lot back then). It worked out cheaper than renting at the time though....even though interest rate back then was around 7% on the mortgage! We got on a lifetime tracker mortgage where we pay 1% above the base rate.....We love our house so never moved, never re-mortgaged, and our £45k house is now worth around £200k and we pay our final mortgage payment in only 4 years time......

The people who were telling me not to buy, are still renting.....

Slightly different scenario for homebuyers/renters now than in 1995, I would imagine.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:45 am

Hadn't there recently been another collapse in the housing market prior to 95?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:47 am

I just can't see it being a national thing though, I can see it happening in cities and towns with high (highish) unemployment, but nationwide?

London, anywhere remotely nice, anywhere in commuting distance of London will continue to climb.

South West Claret. · Post by **South West Claret.** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:48 am

South West Claret. wrote:Generally and I can only stress the word I can only see the prices drifting downwards all the wile this Brexi uncertainty continues.

As always the market does not like uncertainty.

We're going down... again generally.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:27 pm

There are two well acknowledged main drivers of house prices - the availability of credit, and the price of it.

Demand will always be there to a degree, but it is credit that is the key, at higher house prices this becomes even more crucial because the vast bulk of us need it.

At the moment banks have been told to tighten up on credit availability, the BoE has done this by newly recommending that lenders consider if a customer can cope with 3% above the standard variable rate of the bank (before it was 3% above the BoE base rate which is lower). Thus mortgage lending will reduce.

The price of credit will go up when interest rates do. While the above is sensible by the BoE, this is entirely their fault to start with, as central bankers around the world have (through QE and low interest rates) manipulated the economy, they claim to stabilise it. Now it is becoming clear that the rich are getting richer due to this, and others poorer, expect a gradual unwinding, meaning interest rates go up slowly.

Brexit is nothing to do with it, there are bigger forces at work, though a return to "normality" has to be a good thing. Normality in my mind is an independent free trading nation that allows it's currency to naturally flex to stabilise the economy and has asset prices and interest rates at normal levels without undue interference from central banks, with house prices and mortgage levels at a normal multiple of income, for mortgage levels that would be 30% lower but it will happen gradually in tandem with inflation. There will be an initial "hit" as things return to normal but long term the working class in the UK will benefit through being able to afford houses (among other things). Brexit isn't really relevant but if we're in the "club" our Chancellor will be part of the collaborative solutions that the EU and the ECB come up with, even for non-Euro states, which will mean more of the same, so we're better out (in my view).

In the real world that everyone understands, I think this will mean that house prices relative to inflation won't go up much in the next 20 years from here.

Anybody technical in nature who enjoys seeing evidence as to what has changed in recent years can click below.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/self-rein ... up-there-1

Sorry for the nerdy post, time will tell if I am right about what will happen.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:33 pm

Don't apologise!

Its nice when people put up stuff that is both relevant and interesting to read!

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 12:42 pm

evensteadiereddie wrote:To be fair, house building is at a low ebb in most areas due to market uncertainty to some extent but, far more significantly, a shortage of skilled labour.
And guess who we might need to help ease that shortage ?

Great idea, we employ foreign builders to build houses for foreigners who want to live here, also these foreign builders do they live in tents ?
House price inflation is not good, it deprives people of disposal income which in turn causes recorded borrowing to pay for other essentials. It will burst again soon.