Government planning to ban sales of new Petrol and Diesel cars from 2040

[Wile E Coyote]

i dont believe me either sometimes Impoding turtle.

[mikeS]

So will you still be able to get petrol or diesel in 2040 ?
What about the millions of vintage cars like my old Morris minor?

[Imploding Turtle]

So will you still be able to get petrol or diesel in 2040 ?
What about the millions of vintage cars like my old Morris minor?

The answer to that can be inferred from the title of this thread.

[Falcon]

To clear up the debate re Teslas

They claim to have 300 mile range thanks to the newest software update.

The 'supercharging' points that have now been installed at most service stations can apparently provide a full charge in 30 minutes. These are currently free to use to all owners.

You can install these points at your home for £500ish but you can use a normal three pin plug for an overnight slow charge. The electricity cost for charging at home is around £5 at current prices.

They claim that despite the high up-front cost of the car (entry level circa £60k) you will save money in the long run due to the running costs.

They're also in my opinion stunning looking cars and even the entry level specs offer a lot of nice stuff that you'd have to pay extra for in similar traditional cars. Sadly they're out of my price range though.

[ClaretEngineer]

So will you still be able to get petrol or diesel in 2040 ?
What about the millions of vintage cars like my old Morris minor?

The exact thought I had this morning.

There'll either be a shortage of oil by then, so that it'll be hideously expensive or there'll be a surplus meaning the price *should* drop.

The latter will never happen. Prices will be set artificially and taxed heavily to deter this.

On the other hand I'm sure someone will be offering electric motor retrofits to old cars by then anyway (a business idea that has already crossed my mind)

[Cryssys]

Tricky one this; on the one hand I want to point out to Cryssys that I am actually ridiculing those who he thinks I'm 'pandering to'.

But on the other hand, if you have to explain a joke to someone, they probably think Michael McIntyre is funny so it really isn't worth the effort.

I suspect that if Ringo had made the same "joke", a lot of people wouldn't have found it funny.

[Paul Waine]

Obviously the technology will improve. A Tesla is pretty much impractical, except as a runabout, on current performance. But will they be able to match the current petrol engines that take 1 minute to "charge" and will then do 400 miles? Will they be able to run wagons on electricity?

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will deliver the same performance as petrol/diesel vehicles - and the only exhaust is water vapour.

The vehicles exist now, all they need is expansion of the refuelling network.

It will also avoid all the challenges with the power network distribution not having the capacity to charge many electric vehicles at the same time.

Technology will have also changed in other ways. Cars will be driverless. We might no longer need to own a car, just dial-up (if dial-up still exists) a driverless hire car suitable for whatever journey we want to make: 200 mile journey, a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle turns up; local journey, it may be electric powered. It will be a lot cheaper to hire a driverless car than owning your own, because it will be used much more often - and no driver to pay. Lot's of jobs for mechanics keeping everything serviced.

We might even be heading this way a lot sooner than 2040. Let's hope HS2 is finished by then - and before it is overtaken by hyper-loop travel.

[dsr]

They claim that despite the high up-front cost of the car (entry level circa £60k) you will save money in the long run due to the running costs.

How much are second hand ones? In the 12 years I've had mine, cost of car £4k repairs £8k fuel £18k tax £3k insurance £5k total cost £38k - it's going to take a very very long run before the Tesla saves me money! Are they expected to have much longer lives than petrol cars - there must be many fewer moving parts - or will they build in obsolescence like they do with traditional cars?

[Burt]

I was serious about the magic carpets though. They are definitely happening. Definitely.

Maybe but do they have a better range than a Tesla?

[Paul Waine]

The exact thought I had this morning.

There'll either be a shortage of oil by then, so that it'll be hideously expensive or there'll be a surplus meaning the price *should* drop.

The latter will never happen. Prices will be set artificially and taxed heavily to deter this.

On the other hand I'm sure someone will be offering electric motor retrofits to old cars by then anyway (a business idea that has already crossed my mind)

There won't be a shortage of crude oil, these supplies will last for a long, long time. Oil companies will still refine petrol and diesel from crude oil - and all the other things that are produced from crude oil. Obviously, the demand for petrol/diesel will fall - and we can expect further refinery rationalisation. Crude oil prices may fall if the demand for crude falls - but, we've seen prices peak at $147 in July 2008 and fall to $35 by Dec 2008 and then recover to low $100/barrel for a few years. Then in June 2014 prices started to fall again from around $115 to lower than $30 by the end of 2015. Prices have risen again, and have been around $50 (plus and minus) for more than 6 months.

In the UK the bigger part of the petrol and diesel prices is tax: fuel duty and VAT. So, UK petrol prices don't mover around as much as the crude oil market.

The issue for the governments will be how to replace fuel duty - if there are no more new petrol/diesel cars, where are they going to get the tax from?

[Falcon]

Oh I'm sure they'll find a way to tax us, that's what the government's for right

[ClaretEngineer]

There won't be a shortage of crude oil, these supplies will last for a long, long time. Oil companies will still refine petrol and diesel from crude oil - and all the other things that are produced from crude oil. Obviously, the demand for petrol/diesel will fall - and we can expect further refinery rationalisation. Crude oil prices may fall if the demand for crude falls - but, we've seen prices peak at $147 in July 2008 and fall to $35 by Dec 2008 and then recover to low $100/barrel for a few years. Then in June 2014 prices started to fall again from around $115 to lower than $30 by the end of 2015. Prices have risen again, and have been around $50 (plus and minus) for more than 6 months.

In the UK the bigger part of the petrol and diesel prices is tax: fuel duty and VAT. So, UK petrol prices don't mover around as much as the crude oil market.

The issue for the governments will be how to replace fuel duty - if there are no more new petrol/diesel cars, where are they going to get the tax from?

As Falcon says there will be taxation in other places to make up for it, probably a higher Road Fund Licence as a barrier to entry.

[TheFamilyCat]

I suspect that if Ringo had made the same "joke", a lot of people wouldn't have found it funny.

And there's the subtle difference; if Ringo said it, it wouldn't have been a joke. Well, the magic carpet bit may still have been, I'm not sure on his opinion on them.

[karatekid]

What is the lifespan of a battery in these cars? What will happen to the thousands of batteries that are no longer serviceable each year? Will we have battery mountains to rival the butter ones?

[Imploding Turtle]

How much are second hand ones? In the 12 years I've had mine, cost of car £4k repairs £8k fuel £18k tax £3k insurance £5k total cost £38k - it's going to take a very very long run before the Tesla saves me money! Are they expected to have much longer lives than petrol cars - there must be many fewer moving parts - or will they build in obsolescence like they do with traditional cars?

Petrol cars have more moving parts than electric cars.

[dsr]

Petrol cars have more moving parts than electric cars.

Yes, I know, that's why I would hope electric cars would have a longer life.

[Falcon]

When are we getting our hoverboards anyway?

Back To The Future said I'd definitely have one by now.

[Bertiebeehead]

How much are second hand ones? In the 12 years I've had mine, cost of car £4k repairs £8k fuel £18k tax £3k insurance £5k total cost £38k - it's going to take a very very long run before the Tesla saves me money! Are they expected to have much longer lives than petrol cars - there must be many fewer moving parts - or will they build in obsolescence like they do with traditional cars?

£8k repairs, is your car the motoring equivalent of Triggers broom?

[dushanbe]

For anyone interested, Robert Llewellyn has a channel on youtube called Fully Charged, where he reviews and discusses all things to do with electric cars in particular. I recently watched one of his videos about the Tesla Model S 100D which will do 300 miles on a motorway, with a 100 Kwh battery, which is reckoned to be pretty standard within 3 - 5 years.

[Imploding Turtle]

£8k repairs, is your car the motoring equivalent of Triggers broom?

[dsr]

£8k repairs, is your car the motoring equivalent of Triggers broom?

Just an estimate, possibly high side; but two services plus MOT each year comes to about £300 before you count the bits like half an exhaust, wiper motor, tyres, bearings, etc. £500 per year would be £6,000 over 12 years of ownership, and it must be at least that I would have thought. It's the regular servicing that keeps it going!

(And as I don't watch OFAH, it's the headsman's axe!)

[CrosspoolClarets]

I doubt people will have completely gone away from the idea of leaving stuff in the boot while they go somewhere else. If you have five bags of shopping in the boot and then you're going out for a meal, will you carry the five bags into the restaurant with you? If I don't have my own car, why do I keep my binoculars, my croquet mallet, my book, my spare coat or sweater, my bag of sweets, all the other stuff that people leave in their car for convenience?

That's exactly the debate I have been having for years with my best man, who is one of the UK's leading authorities on driverless cars.

My theory is that they won't catch on. We are too independently minded. We like to have our own little car cave to retreat into, with all our little bits and bobs stored away, as DSR says above. What about the many people who get travel sick as a passenger? I can see we will go petrol-less, and I can see that public transport and taxis will be driverless and petrol-less, buts that's it apart from a minority who are happy not owning a car and diving it themselves, and then, how does the driverless car react to the weird and wacky stuff the human driving the car next to it does?

I've loved these debates over recent years.

Saying that, I am weighing up putting a grand down for a Tesla next year. Will probably cost me less than £30k if the government subsidise it, tempting to use as the city runaround replacing my wife's car with longer journeys in my diesel.

[Imploding Turtle]

Do who was it that was whining that India were building too many new coal power stations?

http://www.independent.co.uk/environmen ... 6.html?amp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Damo]

I listened to a program on radio 4 not too long ago that said driverless cars are a long way off hitting our roads. Not because the technology isn't in place (it is) but because we will have to 're write some very important laws.
One of the issues sourounded a situation arising where a driverless car had to decide between hitting one thing (a broken down car for example) and hitting something else (a pedestrian/cyclist) and the possibility of the person who wrote the algerithym for the vehicles decisions being liable for the result

[dsr]

If you're happy with Indian emissions, then so am I. I would have thought you'd want them cut, though - all they're promising is not to increase them for the time being.

As it stands, China + India + the EU + USA are emitting 24.6 Gt CO2 per year (2015 figures). In 1960, when global warming was already in full swing because emissions were too high (so I'm told), the same countries combined were emitting about 6 Gt CO2. Can you put your prejudices to one side for just a moment and try and see my point? If CO2 emission is the cause of global warming, then we need to reduce global emissions by 90% at least. A promise that India won't increase it much for the time being is scarcely relevant. (If the scientists are right.)

http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/0 ... ly-peaked/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[aggi]

Driverless cars will be forced in through increasing insurance premiums rather than laws I suspect. When an increasingly smaller pool of drivers are becoming responsible for the vast majority of accidents the premiums will soar, fewer will drive and the pattern will be repeated.

In terms of the algorithms for a car having to "choose" whether to hit a broken down car or a pedestrian, it won't have such straightforward choices programmed in. The majority of the decisions will be made through machine learning, previous scenarios will have been analysed, the probability of various things happening evaluated and the decision made on that basis by the vehicle's processor. A lot of the trials at the moment are to get more data on various scenarios so that the cars have a better understanding of the best option to take. Volvo have already said that the company as a whole would take the liability for such issues. It's not really any different to many other manufacturing areas, planes are full of computer systems but there isn't discussion about who would be blamed if one crashes.

Saying that, an interview with one of the developers from Volvo suggested that in the vast majority of instances the best solution is to just slam on the brakes, attempting to swerve or whatever just tended to increase the stopping distance and caused more harm.

[dsr]

Driverless cars will be forced in through increasing insurance premiums rather than laws I suspect. When an increasingly smaller pool of drivers are becoming responsible for the vast majority of accidents the premiums will soar, fewer will drive and the pattern will be repeated.

In terms of the algorithms for a car having to "choose" whether to hit a broken down car or a pedestrian, it won't have such straightforward choices programmed in. The majority of the decisions will be made through machine learning, previous scenarios will have been analysed, the probability of various things happening evaluated and the decision made on that basis by the vehicle's processor. A lot of the trials at the moment are to get more data on various scenarios so that the cars have a better understanding of the best option to take. Volvo have already said that the company as a whole would take the liability for such issues. It's not really any different to many other manufacturing areas, planes are full of computer systems but there isn't discussion about who would be blamed if one crashes.

Saying that, an interview with one of the developers from Volvo suggested that in the vast majority of instances the best solution is to just slam on the brakes, attempting to swerve or whatever just tended to increase the stopping distance and caused more harm.

If Volvo are going to take on the liability for crash issues, then Volvo are also going to insist that all servicing for ever and ever will be done at official Volvo garages. So what may be saved in insurance will be lost in servicing costs.

Will a driverless car not be likely to slam on the brakes too often? A human driver can see a person approaching the road and work out whether the pedestrian is likely to stop or is likely to keep going. In most cases, obviously, they will stop; but a driver can see examples (eg. child out of control, person with head in air paying no attention, person not realising it's a one way street) where the pedestrian might not stop and so will be ready to slam on the brakes. Can a driverless car make that sort of judgement? Or will it slow down for pedestrians more often than it needs to?

[Sidney1st]

I suspect there will be a 'black box' like we see on planes too.

If Volvo are going to take on the liability for crash issues, then Volvo are also going to insist that all servicing for ever and ever will be done at official Volvo garages. So what may be saved in insurance will be lost in servicing costs.

Will a driverless car not be likely to slam on the brakes too often? A human driver can see a person approaching the road and work out whether the pedestrian is likely to stop or is likely to keep going. In most cases, obviously, they will stop; but a driver can see examples (eg. child out of control, person with head in air paying no attention, person not realising it's a one way street) where the pedestrian might not stop and so will be ready to slam on the brakes. Can a driverless car make that sort of judgement? Or will it slow down for pedestrians more often than it needs to?

It seems like you're fretting an awful lot about who's going to take the blame for an accident.

Can manufacturers can only do so much but they can't allow for people making poor decisions which result in them stepping out in front of a car, stupid is as stupid does is the saying.

In regards to where a vehicle is maintained, yes there will be some work that can only be done at main dealer.

At present, any vehicle with the lane assist cameras needs additional specific work doing to it when certain parts on the vehicle are changed - suspension, windscreens and wingmirrors for example and the lane assist cameras need re-aligning
If the cameras aren't re-aligned after said work is done technically your insurance is invalid, but I'd take a fair guess that the majority of people who own these vehicles either don't know that or will ignore it because they don't want to pay the cost to maintain their fancy new car.
The same sort of people always want the cheapest parts or don't care or know that their tyres are illegal etc.

Camera re-alignment is usually carried out by the main dealer and costs a fair wedge of money and independant garages are in the processes of either switching up to the new equipment at large/massive costs or deciding not to bother as yet.

[Sidney1st]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... board.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

New Tesla model 3 information released, starting price of £30k, but already has the hardware for driverless systems, just waiting for software.

[dsr]

Can manufacturers can only do so much but they can't allow for people making poor decisions which result in them stepping out in front of a car, stupid is as stupid does is the saying.

That's pretty much my point. Human drivers can allow for people making poor decisions sometimes, because they can see it coming. Will a driverless car be able to do that?

[Sidney1st]

Evan human drivers can only see so much was part of my point.

I've seen accidents on the M60/62 where someone has plowed into the back of stationary traffic because they didn't notice all the flashing signs and stationary traffic warning of an accident further on.
Same with people stepping out in front of traffic.

Nothing will stop people doing it, so in reality the best course of action a car can take is to stop.

People will need to learn to start taking responsibility for their own stupidity though because these driverless cars will have cameras on all the time during journeys so insurance companies will know who's fault it is.
This is very important and maybe something you haven't considered.

[dsr]

Evan human drivers can only see so much was part of my point.

I've seen accidents on the M60/62 where someone has plowed into the back of stationary traffic because they didn't notice all the flashing signs and stationary traffic warning of an accident further on.
Same with people stepping out in front of traffic.

Nothing will stop people doing it, so in reality the best course of action a car can take is to stop.

People will need to learn to start taking responsibility for their own stupidity though because these driverless cars will have cameras on all the time during journeys so insurance companies will know who's fault it is.
This is very important and maybe something you haven't considered.

I'm not doubting that driverless cars can be and will be made safer than driven cars - they won't fall asleep at the wheel, they won't drive over the speed limit, they won't fail to see the flashing lights and queues of traffic.

But they won't be foolproof (I wouldn't think) - and the idea of producing a machine that is known will kill people, though not so many as the machine it will replace, is an interesting concept.

It would be a lot easier to introduce if manual driving was outlawed, because then all cars would be set to the same parameters. (That's not a suggestion!) But how about this situation - because of parked cars, the road is narrow and cars have to squeeze past each other. Some manual drivers are happy with a foot clearance on both sides, some need a yard on the passenger side where the parked car is. If the driverless car's parameters are set for oncoming drivers needing a yard clearance, they might never move; if they're set for a foot, they might be confused when the next driver needs a yard. How will their problem solving skills be when they meet another vehicle (manual or driverless) in a space where one of them needs to reverse?

I'm not saying it can't be done, I'm just interested in the answers.

[aggi]

If Volvo are going to take on the liability for crash issues, then Volvo are also going to insist that all servicing for ever and ever will be done at official Volvo garages. So what may be saved in insurance will be lost in servicing costs.

Will a driverless car not be likely to slam on the brakes too often? A human driver can see a person approaching the road and work out whether the pedestrian is likely to stop or is likely to keep going. In most cases, obviously, they will stop; but a driver can see examples (eg. child out of control, person with head in air paying no attention, person not realising it's a one way street) where the pedestrian might not stop and so will be ready to slam on the brakes. Can a driverless car make that sort of judgement? Or will it slow down for pedestrians more often than it needs to?

I imagine there'll be a lot more leasing of cars. People will be less attached to them if they're not driving them. Service costs probably will go up, but not to the extent that insurance premiums for the few who want to drive will do.

I think you overestimate the ability of human drivers to pay attention. A driverless car will be able to see much more at the same time at a greater distance, if someone 50 feet away starts moving between parked cars they can anticipate and slow gradually just in case and then accelerate again with it barely being noticeable. Human drivers are much heavier on the brake and accelerator. The car will be able to tell the difference between a pedestrian walking along the pavement and a child running towards the road.

This is a good video to show what a car is "seeing" and processing. Look at about 7.30 onwards in particular. This is also from a couple of years ago, I'm sure significant progress will have been made then https://www.ted.com/talks/chris_urmson_ ... s_the_road" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Sidney1st]

I'm not doubting that driverless cars can be and will be made safer than driven cars - they won't fall asleep at the wheel, they won't drive over the speed limit, they won't fail to see the flashing lights and queues of traffic.

But they won't be foolproof (I wouldn't think) - and the idea of producing a machine that is known will kill people, though not so many as the machine it will replace, is an interesting concept.

It would be a lot easier to introduce if manual driving was outlawed, because then all cars would be set to the same parameters. (That's not a suggestion!) But how about this situation - because of parked cars, the road is narrow and cars have to squeeze past each other. Some manual drivers are happy with a foot clearance on both sides, some need a yard on the passenger side where the parked car is. If the driverless car's parameters are set for oncoming drivers needing a yard clearance, they might never move; if they're set for a foot, they might be confused when the next driver needs a yard. How will their problem solving skills be when they meet another vehicle (manual or driverless) in a space where one of them needs to reverse?

I'm not saying it can't be done, I'm just interested in the answers.

Your points about road width is a good one.
There is testing going on as we speak and there will be more extensive testing happening over the next few years.
It may be a case of programming the car to recognize when they're driving down a narrow street full of parked cars and to make allowances for a reduced space etc.

[Sidney1st]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/cars/a ... -Zero.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Jaguar have announced that from 2020 their new models will be electric or hybrid.

[Wokingclaret]

Full electric no good for us footy fans, it won't get us there and back for half the games

[Sidney1st]

Will be by the time they become common.
Products evolve and improve over time with development etc.

[bfccrazy]

It isn't a card, it's a fact about family and friends, but I'm still struggling to see why I've had the finger pointed at me over what a lot of people would call a funny comment.

If Cryssys is struggling to find their sense of humour then I don't see why that's my fault.

Has anyone asked our resident muslims if they've got an issue with it, because if they have surely they would've complained?

I'll take role of resident muslim in this case if you like -

Please could you provide me with pictoral and or video evidence of said muslim family and also some letters from muslim friends confirming they see you the same way.

If this can be done before the weekend it'd be appreciated and then I can also feel less upset with myself for also laughing at the magic carpet/shariah joke.

[Sidney1st]

Would pictures of me at my sisters Muslim wedding do?

[BigChaCha]

This ban is not going to change a thing. Growing populations in certain countries and mass immigration from them and other countries to the west is the Elephant in the room but we in the western world are too politically correct to say or do anything!

In a few thousand years we will be all living on top of each other, there will be no green belt land, no real difference in cultures or language and if climate change is real then no real seasons. Most of the really interesting animals will probably be extinct too! I'm happy I won't be a part of it!

[Fireguard]

Has anyone taken into account the millions of terraced houses. Most with 2 or 3 cars parked outside. Are the pavements going to be full of extension leads feeding all these vehicles. This has not been thought out properly.

[BigChaCha]

Scary!



https://s26.postimg.org/4fwm773g9/popul ... story2.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[bfccrazy]

Would pictures of me at my sisters Muslim wedding do?

Along with birth certificates and the letters yes

[JohnMac]

Hopefully you would think there will be technology of a different kind available by then because the rate Electricity bills are increasing it's likely nobody will be able to afford a recharge. What about all the power required to cope with the additional and constant demand for extra electricity? Most of the fossil fuel power stations create great big clouds of that horrible brown smoke.

Mind you I'll be 85 so don't really see myself worrying too much about driving and recharging my Limousine