Junckers vision of a United States of Europe.

[ClaretMoffitt]

Tad unrelated from the thread but this just popped up in my old pictures and it made me giggle. The immediate aftermath of the result was spectacular.

[claretspice]

That's another argument in favour of Brexit then, given the trade deficit.
Also, please quantify this with some quotes from UK exporters, just so we all don't assume you pulled that statement out of your backside

By all means go and check the views of any trade body going

Back to the Commission: it is true it is more openly political thsn our civil service (although anyone who believes there's no political angle to the civil service should watch Yes Minister) but the fact remains: it has no power and spends the overwhelming majority of its time and resource doing what it is told.

[Sidney1st]

Well Thatcher started the decline, the workers don't help at times, but the EU have imposed rules which put us at a disadvantage.

So all the stuff that was going on in the 60's & 70's is now Thatcher's fault?

That's impressive work by her.

[claretsintown]

Just returned from holiday in Poland, speaking to the locals they were all worried about what they describe as the rise of the Fourth Reich

[Lancasterclaret]

Just returned from the other thread

speaking to the locals, everyone is worried about a certain posters grasp of what is actually going on.

[CrosspoolClarets]

The cotton mills of Colne were closing long before 1979. Then, as now, cheaper labour abroad was the problem. Import of cheap labour from India and Pakistan was only a short-term fix.

Did you hear Juncker saying that an Eastern European should be paid the same as a Western European? I assume he means working in their own countries.

I wonder what that means for wage growth in Western Europe?

Sounds to me a deliberate plan to keep inflation / wage growth down in the West, allowing Eastern Europe to catch up over 10-20 years, and have one big united Europe all with equivalent wealth, with Eurozone inflation overall kept reasonable.

Sounds a bit Utopian, but only trouble with that, has anybody asked French, German and other voters what they think? (not relevant to UK voters any more, thank God, we can hopefully start paying people decent wage rises again and attract the best talent from Western Europe, seizing the opportunity).

[Lancasterclaret]

To pick fruit?

[claretspice]

Did you hear Juncker saying that an Eastern European should be paid the same as a Western European? I assume he means working in their own countries.

I wonder what that means for wage growth in Western Europe?

Sounds to me a deliberate plan to keep inflation / wage growth down in the West, allowing Eastern Europe to catch up over 10-20 years, and have one big united Europe all with equivalent wealth, with Eurozone inflation overall kept reasonable.

Sounds a bit Utopian, but only trouble with that, has anybody asked French, German and other voters what they think? (not relevant to UK voters any more, thank God, we can hopefully start paying people decent wage rises again and attract the best talent from Western Europe, seizing the opportunity).

I imagine Juncker's bosses will have to ask the western European voters - they are of course the Prime Ministers of those countries, because as we keep having to remind ourselves, Juncker answers to them and has no power of his own.

They will veto any policy which is going to lead to them being booted out of office, and they can do this because that is the way in which the European Union works.

[Right_winger]

We all knew the idea was a federal Europe. Farage for instance got shot down in flames by those liars wanting to ride the EU gravy train. I really hope the EU collapses upon itself
Once we are out of harms way.

[Lancasterclaret]

Juncker answers to them and has no power of his own

This is the bit that every Brexiteer on here appears to struggle with.

[Lancasterclaret]

We all knew the idea was a federal Europe. Farage for instance got shot down in flames by those liars wanting to ride the EU gravy train. I really hope the EU collapses upon itself
Once we are out of harms way.

Planning to move the UK or something?

Anything happens to the EU, the worldwide economic problems resulting from that will make Brexit look like a picnic.

[JohnMcGreal]

I really hope the EU collapses upon itself

People like Right_winger are absolutely desperate for the EU to collapse in order to make their own vote to leave look less foolish than it was.

But the EU isn't collapsing and it's not about to collapse any time soon. If anything, the EU27 will become stronger and more united after our exit.

[Paul Waine]

If anything, the EU27 will become stronger and more united after our exit.

Hi John, if the UK's departure from EU enables the other 27 to become "stronger and more united" then that's a good reason for the UK to leave the EU, isn't it?

[JohnMcGreal]

Hi John, if the UK's departure from EU enables the other 27 to become "stronger and more united" then that's a good reason for the UK to leave the EU, isn't it?

A good reason for the EU perhaps, yes.

[RingoMcCartney]

We all knew the idea was a federal Europe. Farage for instance got shot down in flames by those liars wanting to ride the EU gravy train. I really hope the EU collapses upon itself
Once we are out of harms way.

Fine post!!

[CrosspoolClarets]

I imagine Juncker's bosses will have to ask the western European voters - they are of course the Prime Ministers of those countries, because as we keep having to remind ourselves, Juncker answers to them and has no power of his own.

They will veto any policy which is going to lead to them being booted out of office, and they can do this because that is the way in which the European Union works.

This is the bit that every Brexiteer on here appears to struggle with.

If Juncker really that impotent, or is it a case of "his master's voice"?

I would be surprised if some of what he comes out with hasn't been approved or even originally recommended by Merkel, Tusk etc. I would also be surprised at the suggestion that the Western leaders are more or less all equal in their command over Juncker. Evidence of recent years is that Merkel has the final say (e.g. on Greece), and the others are persuaded or threatened to fall into line. The ECB, Franco-German banks and / or the German government holding many of the bonds of indebted countries will just help to "persuade" them to do their master's bidding. Refuse to buy any more bonds, the economy tanks.

In 2015 State of the Union Juncker proposed the Common European Asylum System, something Germany want, because their demographics are shocking, but many other countries do not. Lo and behold it is now happening, like many of the things he speaks about in these annual shindigs.

The acid test will be our negotiations on money, with suggestions that May will (cleverly) offer £10bn per year for 3 year access to the single market during transition, and that Macron and the EU Council agree with that, but that Juncker and Merkel do not.

The upshot is, what Juncker says, may not happen. But there is a good chance that it will.

[nil_desperandum]

How can it be clever of May to offer 10 billion a year for access to the Single market, when it's currently costing us 8.6 billion a year net?
And,of course, for that we get a lot more than just access to the Single Market, and a seat at the table that gives us a veto over things we don't like?

[ngsobob]

I've read the speech. There is no reference to a United States of Europe. Juncker's role entitles him to set out a direction. It includes some ideas that the UK would welcome (increased subsidiarity, EU to concentrate on big ideas, leaving smaller stuff to nation sates etc). Looking at comments on here, and the other mind-bending thread, it's obvious that most haven't read more than is in the Tory press and are even less interested in facts like the EU is growing faster than us. Facts, eh? Damned inconvenient.

[Lancasterclaret]

I've had an interesting 24 hours on twitter about it.

Only one Brexiteer polite enough to debate sensible, with the highlight being the one who actually said "taking back control"

[Right_winger]

This country does not want to be ruled by a foreign power which has control over every aspect of our lives.
The EU project has failed much like multiculturalism. There's too many differences which cannot be under one banner.

[Imploding Turtle]

This country does not want to be ruled by a foreign power which has control over every aspect of our lives.
The EU project has failed much like multiculturalism. There's too many differences which cannot be under one banner.

every aspect of our lives. multiculturalism has failed

[aggi]

For those (many I suspect) who haven't read the actual speech it is here https://ig.ft.com/juncker-speech-annotated/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; . Depending on where you get you news from the actual speech may not bear that much resemblance to the headlines. Juncker makes it very clear that the views are his own, not the declared direction of the EU Today I would like to present you my view: my own “scenario six”, if you will

As for the proposals, some are reasonable, some less so. You'll note that there are a large number of areas where he says something along the lines of The Treaty already provides for this, if all Member States agree to do it. For this reason I'd have far preferred us to stay in the EU and actually be a part of the decision making process rather than just watching what happens.

As the old saying goes, better to be inside the tent ******* out ...

[Bertiebeehead]

Depends who's tent it is.

[claretandy]

Its pointless even debating on here anymore, remainers won't budge an inch and everything is awful, while us brexiteers have no regrets and won't budge an inch either !

[Caballo]

As the old saying goes, better to be inside the tent ******* out ...

Better still to get out of the tent and go and use the toilet.

[BennyD]

People like Right_winger are absolutely desperate for the EU to collapse in order to make their own vote to leave look less foolish than it was.

But the EU isn't collapsing and it's not about to collapse any time soon. If anything, the EU27 will become stronger and more united after our exit.

It looks like you fell for Juncker's bolloxs hook, line, sinker, float, line, rod, angler and his seat. We haven't heard the last of Club Med and the German car industry, neither of which did Juncker mention in his painting-over-the-cracks speech.

[timshorts]

This country does not want to be ruled by a foreign power which has control over every aspect of our lives.
The EU project has failed much like multiculturalism. There's too many differences which cannot be under one banner.

Welcome to Wales.

Given that the English:-
a) tried to annex Monmouthshire at one point (in my lifetime) and pretend that it was part of their own country
b) tried to ban the Welsh language.
c) consistently seem to oppose anything that might look like a second Scottish referendum (whether it would be successful or not isn't the point)

there is absolutely no consistency to these little englander-type arguments.

The rest of us have been ruled by a foreign country for decades, and personally I'd rather it was a load of guys in Brussels/Strasbourg that take money from the rich and dole it back out to the poorer areas of the EU including our own, than the power-hungry mob in Westminster at the moment that have their number 1 priority as "staying in power", little intention of investing anything much in areas of the country that vote for "the other lot", and achieve power by a system of "democracy" that only serves to retain the effective two-party system that we have endured for years.

We were in the Common market - subsequently the EU - as we (the UK) voted for it in a referendum (and 67% voted for it). Not exactly a protest vote.

Incidentally, the people of Newport did not want to be English, any more than the people of Poland wanted to live in "General Government", and I imagine, rather less than those living in Eupen, Danzig etc wanted to be German.

[thatdberight]

Welcome to Wales.

Given that the English:-
a) tried to annex Monmouthshire at one point (in my lifetime) and pretend that it was part of their own country
b) tried to ban the Welsh language.
c) consistently seem to oppose anything that might look like a second Scottish referendum (whether it would be successful or not isn't the point)

there is absolutely no consistency to these little englander-type arguments.

The rest of us have been ruled by a foreign country for decades, and personally I'd rather it was a load of guys in Brussels/Strasbourg that take money from the rich and dole it back out to the poorer areas of the EU including our own, than the power-hungry mob in Westminster at the moment that have their number 1 priority as "staying in power", little intention of investing anything much in areas of the country that vote for "the other lot", and achieve power by a system of "democracy" that only serves to retain the effective two-party system that we have endured for years.

We were in the Common market - subsequently the EU - as we (the UK) voted for it in a referendum (and 67% voted for it). Not exactly a protest vote.

Incidentally, the people of Newport did not want to be English, any more than the people of Poland wanted to live in "General Government", and I imagine, rather less than those living in Eupen, Danzig etc wanted to be German.

And what are the boundaries to your support for self-determination?

So, perhaps Newport would rather be part of an independent Wales. What about a specific ward that wouldn't? Or a street? A house? An individual within a house? Will you allow bedroom-size enclaves?

This isn't to dispute that there are Welsh people who crave independence (possibly -although I don't believe so - a majority). But the inconsistency of those who wish to " de-recognise" one current border, but frame that question entirely within another, equally random, quirk of history border which they wish to keep entirely intact confuses me. Same with the SNP. Should they win a referendum, would they immediately cede the Borders to England and certain constituencies in the North-East which would almost certainly have voted to remain in the UK? Or does self-determination only count when it's in their self-interest?

[JohnMcGreal]

It looks like you fell for Juncker's bolloxs hook, line, sinker, float, line, rod, angler and his seat. We haven't heard the last of Club Med and the German car industry, neither of which did Juncker mention in his painting-over-the-cracks speech.

Still banging that drum? OK. Two weeks ago in Germany, in the run up to the general election, there was a live televised debate between Chancellor Angela Merkel and her challenger Martin Schulz.

Now, bearing in mind that we're repeatedly told in the UK that Brexit is a huge deal for Europe, and that they need us more than we need them, and that the German auto industry will be piling pressure on Merkel to cut us a favourable deal (as though she has the power to do that) etc etc.

So. Have a guess at how many times Brexit was discussed in that important national debate in Germany.

The answer is zero. Not once. It wasn't even mentioned.

So if the German auto industry's ability to sell cars to the UK is of such huge national importance, why wasn't it even mentioned in the most important debate before the general election?

Brexit is only a huge deal for us, because if it goes badly, we stand to lose an awful lot. That's the reality of it.

[nil_desperandum]

Now, bearing in mind that we're repeatedly told in the UK that Brexit is a huge deal for Europe, and that they need us more than we need them, and that the German auto industry will be piling pressure on Merkel to cut us a favourable deal (as though she has the power to do that) etc etc.

So if the German auto industry's ability to sell cars to the UK is of such huge national importance, why wasn't it even mentioned in the most important debate before the general election?
.

Anyone who is following political events in the EU, and, in particular their response to, (or indeed lack of interest in) Brexit, will be aware that the German Automotive Industry have already stated that maintaining the total integrity of the Single Market is far more important to them than continuing to sell cars to the UK under current terms, since it only counts for 14% of their market.
(Worryingly if we have no deal, almost 60% of our exported cars currently go to the EU).

[Tw@]

https://youtu.be/i9cLwoTkWes" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Damo]

Can anyone explain to me why tony Blair isn't in prison?

[BennyD]

Can anyone explain to me why tony Blair isn't in prison?

He's probably got inside knowledge of all the people who can send him there. I wouldn't put anything past the slimy, four flushing sack of sh!t; he's got more faces than Big Ben and makes even more noise. A gold plated, diamond edged prick of the highest order.

[thatdberight]

Anyone who is following political events in the EU, and, in particular their response to, (or indeed lack of interest in) Brexit, will be aware that the German Automotive Industry have already stated that maintaining the total integrity of the Single Market is far more important to them than continuing to sell cars to the UK under current terms, since it only counts for 14% of their market.
(Worryingly if we have no deal, almost 60% of our exported cars currently go to the EU).

I don't dispute there's an economic price, at the very least in the short term, to be paid for all this, especially when it appears that (and this is phrased as even-handedly as I can manage) the remaining 27 have decided, whether for political or economic reasons, that it would be good to accentuate that cost to us and that the narrow margin of the decision and further political happenings since then have left the UK seemingly not quite sure what it wants.
However, I just can't see that the two statements; a) EU-manufactured cars will become, if not prohibitively then at least more, expensive in the UK and b) UK-manufactured cars will become, if not prohibitively then at least more, expensive in the EU lead to economic Armageddon on either side. The solution is obvious and while that results, clearly, in some loss of choice and increased cost, it's a drop in the ocean.

[Rowls]

manufacturing declined bavaise Thatcher decided service industries would become the wealth creator of this country, she was wrong as time will show.

Well Thatcher started the decline, the workers don't help at times, but the EU have imposed rules which put us at a disadvantage.

A lot of political debate is all about opinion. But some things are so blatantly untrue they can be put to bed beyond all reasonable doubt very, very quickly.

This is one of those instances Lowbankclaret.

Manufacturing has been declining as a % of GDP for years before and years after Margaret Thatcher's premiership. If anything she halted the speed of decline.



https://fullfact.org/economy/did-labour ... facturing/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

There simply isn't a debate to be had here. You are simply wrong in your assertions.

[summitclaret]

I thank many of us have been hanging back so as not to start a trade war which would be counter productive at this stage. However, if the EU don't stop ******* us about and stop blaming us for discussions not progressing, ultimately the british public will decide not to buy EU products in anything like the current quantities, especially where there are alternatives. For example, BMWs, Audis, french and italian wine, white goods, holiday destinations.

If they don't play ball and we are forced to leave on wt tariffs (we will if we have to), then a public led boycott will provide many opportunities for british and commonwealth companies.

Yes there will a short term hit on the economy, but I believe that in longer term we will all be better off and safer.

[nil_desperandum]

I thank many of us have been hanging back so as not to start a trade war which would be counter productive at this stage. However, if the EU don't stop ******* us about and stop blaming us for discussions not progressing, ultimately the british public will decide not to buy EU products in anything like the current quantities, especially where there are alternatives. For example, BMWs, Audis, french and italian wine, white goods, holiday destinations.
.

There are just so many holes in that theory, but I don't have the time or inclination to address them all.
But just for starters: approx 8% of EU exports come to the UK whereas over 50% of ours go to the EU, so whilst it's true that we can produce and buy more British goods and explore markets outside the EU, if we decide to embark on some sort of trade war with the EU in the manner you suggest, then we would most likely be big losers. This is why we are looking for a deal but the EU have the upper hand in negotiations.
We're almost certain to end up with no deal.

[summitclaret]

It the overall value of the trade that matters is it not? As I understand it we currently import a lot more than we export to the EU

[nil_desperandum]

It the overall value of the trade that matters is it not? As I understand it we currently import a lot more than we export to the EU

Yes you're correct, but where your argument falls down is that you're comparing one economy with 27.
It's impossible to give precise figures, but the most reliable I can find tell us that we export £240 billion to the EU, and the 27 countries of the EU export £340 billion to us. Now obviously that 340 can't be divided equally by 27, (some countries will export more to us than others), but in simple terms it means that no individual country risks anything like the £240 billion that we do, and in fact a significant number are net importers from the UK.
Don't forget all 27 have agreed on what Barnier can and can't offer, and all 27 have to agree to any deal.

[ClaretMoffitt]

[summitclaret]

They will all do what Germany you France tell them to do in the end as usual.

[JohnMcGreal]

However, if the EU don't stop ******* us about

By ******* us about, do you mean their refusal to just bend over and give us whatever we want?

ultimately the british public will decide not to buy EU products in anything like the current quantities, especially where there are alternatives. For example, BMWs, Audis, french and italian wine, white goods, holiday destinations.

I love how you're making it sound like the British public will even have that choice. If we crash out with no deal, that decision will have been made for them, because a lot of people simply won't be able to afford to buy EU goods in the same quantity.

[LeadBelly]

"....and in fact a significant number are net importers from the UK."
If you get the details of the histogram copied here by ClaretMoffit - there's only 1 country which has significant net trade deficit with UK- Ireland (£8/9 billion); Finland, Estonia Bulgaria, Malta Denmark all have very small net imports.
The big red lines at the top are net exporters to us: Germany c £25 billion, Spain c £10 billion, Belgium & Netherlands £7/8 billion etc.

Germany can take a hit but what about Spain? What will they do with all their salad and rioja? Will the Belgians be able to eat all that extra chocolate? The Belgians will also lose the expenses spend from UK politicians in Brussels (mind, plenty still left to keep the restaurants, hotels, brothels going nicely).

[nil_desperandum]

Couldn't open the chart, but I've seen the chart elsewhere.
What it reinforces, is that when it comes to comparing exports and imports only Germany has a significant gap between what they sell us and what we sell to them, but the gap is still only a fraction of the £240 billion that we stand to lose, and in any case the Germans can afford it, and have made it clear that the Single Market and Freedom of Movt are their priority.
Edit: (For leadbelly) £25 billion for the Germans and £10 billion for the Spanish is pretty small fry compared to our £240 billion potential loss.

[Spijed]

I thank many of us have been hanging back so as not to start a trade war which would be counter productive at this stage. However, if the EU don't stop ******* us about and stop blaming us for discussions not progressing, ultimately the british public will decide not to buy EU products in anything like the current quantities, especially where there are alternatives. For example, BMWs, Audis, french and italian wine, white goods, holiday destinations.

If they don't play ball and we are forced to leave on wt tariffs (we will if we have to), then a public led boycott will provide many opportunities for british and commonwealth companies.

Yes there will a short term hit on the economy, but I believe that in longer term we will all be better off and safer.

So you think the Americans can build better products than the Germans for example?

As for holiday destinations, I presume you realise it costs far more to get Asia than it does to Europe?

I can imagine a family of four paying an extra £2000 for a holiday in the far east just to show those Europeans we mean business!

[JohnMcGreal]

Couldn't open the chart, but I've seen the chart elsewhere.
What it reinforces, is that when it comes to comparing exports and imports only Germany has a significant gap between what they sell us and what we sell to them, but the gap is still only a fraction of the £240 billion that we stand to lose, and in any case the Germans can afford it, and have made it clear that the Single Market and Freedom of Movt are their priority.
Edit: (For leadbelly) £25 billion for the Germans and £10 billion for the Spanish is pretty small fry compared to our £240 billion potential loss.

It's also worth remembering that the EU and Japan have agreed a free trade deal which, once ratified, will open up a market of nearly 130 million people to the EU. So that will go some way to make up for the loss of the UK market of nearly 66 million people.

[nil_desperandum]

So you think the Americans can build better products than the Germans for example?

As for holiday destinations, I presume you realise it costs far more to get to Asia than it does to Europe?

I can imagine a family of four paying an extra £2000 for a holiday in the far east just to show those Europeans we mean business!

It's already costing a family of four something between £400 and £1000 more this year, (inc. spending money) just to go to Europe given the 15 / 20% dip in sterling.
Travelling further afield is looking increasingly remote for the average family for the foreseeable future.

[evensteadiereddie]

True - at least it's OUR families of four paying between £400 and £1000 more. Yay, that'll show those pesky Europeans and Juncker and his thoughts - and that's all they are - regarding the future.

[BennyD]

The pound is on the way up, but I suppose that was down to Junkers' speech. Hang on, how does that work? It must be, as no good, apparently can come of Brexit.

[BennyD]

It's also worth remembering that the EU and Japan have agreed a free trade deal which, once ratified, will open up a market of nearly 130 million people to the EU. So that will go some way to make up for the loss of the UK market of nearly 66 million people.