UK Car Industry Investment Plummets Due To Brexit

[UpTheBeehole]

Hi UTB, did we establish what the cause of the downturn is?

Why would it be Brexit? It's not happened yet. Yes, we know it will happen (or start to happen) in March-2019, but usually when there ae things known to be happening in the future the consumer will "rush in now" to buy what is available and avoid the (expected) future price rises etc. This happened with house prices in 1988 - when double MIRAS was announced to be withdrawn in July that year - everyone who was planning to buy a house rushed in and house prices went up - and then the came down again after the change. It also happened early last year when the 3% extra stamp duty was announced to take place 1-Apr-2016. And, now with all the extra cost of stamp duty (in London/S.East) house prices are falling etc. etc.

Again, in the words of the Chief Exec of the SMMT

While fluctuating fleet orders are a natural feature of the market, the decline in business confidence, caused by economic and political uncertainty, has resulted in further disruption to manufacturing output. It is, therefore, critical government safeguards the conditions needed for this vital sector to thrive.

[Blackrod]

Making yourself look a fool here aren't you Sidney?

There is one person who consistently does this on this board and that is you. You clearly need help.

[JohnMac]

data.jpg (8.78 KiB) Viewed 3547 times

WRONG, you are all WRONG!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

[UpTheBeehole]

There is one person who consistently does this on this board and that is you. You clearly need help.

As do you, with your multiple personalities Bin ont Turf

[Rick_Muller]

Again, in the words of the Chief Exec of the SMMT

the decline in business confidence, caused by economic and political uncertainty

is not necessarily BREXIT is it? but by all means use a quote from a politically motivated individual to push your agenda.

For the record, I wanted to remain in the EU, but thanks to you being a belmtard I am now defending arguments against BREXIT.

[Paul Waine]

Again, in the words of the Chief Exec of the SMMT

OK, yes, so it's fleet sales that are down.

Anyone on this board who drives a car provided by work? Are you due for a replacement? Has your employer extended the length of time between replacements?

If fleet sales are for the rental fleet market, I'd have thought with all the tourists flocking to the UK (with low GBP) that rental car fleet purchases would be up this year. ,

[UpTheBeehole]

Oh come on Rick, you're more intelligent than that. Just because he didn't use the term 'Brexit' in that very short extract, he is very clearly referring to it. What other economic and political uncertainty is there?

And how is the Chief Exec of the SMMT a politically motivated individual?

This isn't Jeremy Corbyn saying this, is it

[UpTheBeehole]

OK, yes, so it's fleet sales that are down.

Anyone on this board who drives a car provided by work? Are you due for a replacement? Has your employer extended the length of time between replacements?

If fleet sales are for the rental fleet market, I'd have thought with all the tourists flocking to the UK (with low GBP) that rental car fleet purchases would be up this year. ,

Thats one report on Commercial Vehicles. There's a separate report on car manufacturing, showing a 14.2% slump.

Please can people read the thread properly?

In case you can't, I will provide the articles again:

UK car production reverses in September as domestic decline drives fall
26 OCTOBER 2017 #SMMT NEWS #UK MANUFACTURING
UK car manufacturing falls in September, as output declines -4.1% to 153,224 units.
Domestic demand sees biggest losses, dropping -14.2% to 31,421, while exports decrease -1.1%.
YTD production down -2.2% for the first nine months, to 1,259,509 units.
UK car manufacturing fell in September, with year-on-year output declining -4.1%, according to figures released today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). 6,500 fewer cars rolled off production lines than in the same month last year, with a total output of 153,224.

Production for export fell by -1.1% in line with slower growth across EU markets, but it was substantial double-digit losses in the home market which drove the overall decline. Domestic demand in the month dropped -14.2% to 31,421 units, contributing to an overall year-to-date production decrease of -2.2%.

Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said,

With UK car manufacturing falling for a fifth month this year, it’s clear that declining consumer and business confidence is affecting domestic demand and hence production volumes. Uncertainty regarding the national air quality plans also didn’t help the domestic market for diesel cars, despite the fact that these new vehicles will face no extra charges or restrictions across the UK.

Brexit is the greatest challenge of our times and yet we still don’t have any clarity on what our future relationship with our biggest trading partner will look like, nor detail of the transitional deal being sought. Leaving the EU with no deal would be the worst outcome for our sector so we urge government to deliver on its commitments and safeguard the competitiveness of the industry.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2017/10/uk-car-p ... ives-fall/

CV manufacturing declines in September as demand varies at home and abroad
26 OCTOBER 2017 #CV NEWS #CV SECTOR #UK MANUFACTURING
UK production of commercial vehicles declines -26.0% to 7,208 units in September 2017.
Year-to-date output also falls, down -11.7%, with 61,233 CVs built this year.
Exports remain stable in 2017, up 3.6% so far this year, accounting for 62.1% of production.
British commercial vehicle (CV) production output fell in September, as declining business confidence affected production volumes, according to figures released today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). 7,208 vans, trucks, buses and coaches were built in the UK last month, a -26.0% year-on-year decline.

Domestic demand fell -32.6% in the month, with 2,710 CVs produced for the home market, echoing trends seen in UK van registration figures. Although natural fleet buying cycles can affect the timing of monthly production volumes, a recent decline in business confidence has seen further fluctuations in purchasing patterns, affecting production numbers. Meanwhile, demand from overseas markets declined -21.4%, however, the proportion of CVs built for export remains high at 62.4%.

Year-to-date production also saw a decline, with output down -11.7% to 61,233 units. However, production for export remained stable, up 3.6% in 2017 with 38,022 units shipped abroad this year – the majority to Europe.

Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, said,

Domestic demand for commercial vehicles has taken a hit in recent months and this is being mirrored in UK production figures. While fluctuating fleet orders are a natural feature of the market, the decline in business confidence, caused by economic and political uncertainty, has resulted in further disruption to manufacturing output. It is, therefore, critical government safeguards the conditions needed for this vital sector to thrive.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/2017/10/cv-manuf ... me-abroad/

[Rick_Muller]

Oh come on Rick, you're more intelligent than that

yes I am, and I am sure you are too, but please let the bickering stop. I get your point, I really do, but you really cannot say that what he is saying about BREXIT causing a downturn in the motor industry is a fact when there are so many other factors that others have clearly highlighted.

[Sidney1st]

Hi Paul, the P1 was a limited edition model.

The technology used for it is key to future models though.

[RocketLawnChair]

yes I am, and I am sure you are too, but please let the bickering stop. I get your point, I really do, but you really cannot say that what he is saying about BREXIT causing a downturn in the motor industry is a fact when there are so many other factors that others have clearly highlighted.

Mike Hawes even highlights other factors himself Rick. You are wasting your time with that hysterical nutjob UTB. Mike Hawes also says No Deal would be the worst possible outcome for the UK car industry, No **** Sherlock. It is just another day and another if but or maybe story with hardly any facts in it what so ever other than the monthly data that they produce erm! every month... Oh and Mike Hawes opinion.

[Paul Waine]

Thats one report on Commercial Vehicles. There's a separate report on car manufacturing, showing a 14.2% slump.

Hi UTB, thanks for posting all the reports.

When I mentioned fleet sales, I was referring to cars - and not commercial vehicles. Interesting however to see the cv manufacturing output (and sales) figures - we really are pretty small in cvs these days.

Also good to read all the SMMT statement. I don't think the brexit stuff is claiming "cause and effect," I think he's saying that there's a lot of uncertainty - and that that is a forward looking concern (which it may be). I also find it interesting that SMMT like to say that the new diesels are not subject to any additional charges. I don't know what SMMT have said about Volkswagen's (and other manufacturers) cheating of their emissions tests. It's the cheating of the tests that gives rise to a lot of the uncertainty - not just the response to "old, dirty diesels." It's logical that consumers will be cautious about committing to new purchases now that we all know that diesel is "not the clean, environmentally friendly fuel" that the manufactures were claiming.

Yes, we all know that the existing EU single market has been positive for the development of car manufacturing in the UK - along with the UK's more flexible employment laws (which is not something the EU, France, Germany etc favours). We know that SMMT would favour staying in the single market - but the negotiations on the terms of leaving the EU are still ongoing.

[Imploding Turtle]

I would phase out housing benefit over a period of 5 years. The £14 billion annual savings could be then used to decrease corporation tax and stimulate foreign investment into the UK.

Phasing out HB would also have two important benefits for our children/grandchildren. Residential rents (paid to mainly private landlords) would reduce significantly and house prices would 're-adjust' down to more realistic levels.

Housing Benefit is already being phased out since it's included in this Universal Credit calamity. But let's say it wasn't. How are you going to deal with the massive homelessness that will result from unemployed people not being able to afford rent?

[IanMcL]

We are a nation of 'today' businesses fuelled by Toy desire for quick buck. Others invest for the future.

Leaving Europe has heightened that 'today' attitude, as tomorrow is grim.

[RingoMcCartney]

There is one person who consistently does this on this board and that is you. You clearly need help.

Blackrod- the calm sensible Voice of Reason.

[JohnMcGreal]

Another observation: Yes, I'd expect Nissan/Toyota to be in the UK to serve the EU market.

Erm. Why?

[Sidney1st]

Erm. Why?

A lot is going to depend on what deal we get.

Wasn't it Nissan who went looking for financial assurances from the government?
If the deal isn't to their liking , I'd expect them to relocate to France where their parent company Renault is.

Vauxhall is another concern now it's owned by the French.

The plants here are modern and productive, but it's going to depend on the French unfortunately.

[CrosspoolClarets]

The plants here are modern and productive, but it's going to depend on the French unfortunately.

And probably on the corporation tax rate and worker’s rights in the two countries. The former is 33.3% in France.

[Imploding Turtle]

And probably on the corporation tax rate and worker’s rights in the two countries. The former is 33.3% in France.

Which is why the Tories will be going after worker's rights. But any suggestion that they would was dismissed as "project fear" by people who weren't interested in listening.

[Sidney1st]

Would that be the workers rights they've said will be enshrined into UK laws and regulations?

Have you considered what would happen to them if they took all those rights away?
They'd never get back into power.

[Paul Waine]

Which is why the Tories will be going after worker's rights. But any suggestion that they would was dismissed as "project fear" by people who weren't interested in listening.

Hi IT, there's "no need" to look to change UK employment rights. The cost of employing someone in France is significantly higher than the cost of employment in the UK, already, including the flexibility that applies around redundancy.

That is why it's always been easier to attract new investment to the UK than it is in France.

[Paul Waine]

Erm. Why?

Hi John, I remember when Nissan set up in North East - and when Toyota arrived in Derby - we should also mention Honda in Swindon. They all arrived when UK was a member of EEC - as it then was (Maastricht and EU single market came later - from memory). It would make sense to invest in the UK (Thatcher was PM) and access the EEC/EU from UK base.

But, I think Nissan's plant is so efficient that it can also export back to Japan. Impressive achievement by the guys in Sunderland.

[Imploding Turtle]

Hi IT, there's "no need" to look to change UK employment rights. The cost of employing someone in France is significantly higher than the cost of employment in the UK, already, including the flexibility that applies around redundancy.

That is why it's always been easier to attract new investment to the UK than it is in France.

Do you honestly believe the Tories won't use this opportunity to go after worker's rights? Getting rid of them is their raison d'etre.

[HatfieldClaret]

Some workers rights in the UK are better than EU workers rights. maternity/Paternity leave etc.

You can research it yourself though IT, it'll keep you busy for a while.

[Paul Waine]

Do you honestly believe the Tories won't use this opportunity to go after worker's rights? Getting rid of them is their raison d'etre.

Yes, the things I'm referring to aren't EU "rights." In fact on TM's form she may plan to try and give out more "rights."

Don't forget that France has a "max 35 hour work" rule - which Macron knows needs to be "relaxed." Again, what France does is not EU "employment protection" or "employment creation" - just French politics.

[Sidney1st]

Do you honestly believe the Tories won't use this opportunity to go after worker's rights? Getting rid of them is their raison d'etre.

I'll say it again in case you missed it.

They get rid of current workers rights and they won't get back into power again for a while.

[aggi]

Are we going to ignore the highest UK FDI inflows since 2005 or the $40bn investment from QIA, or the Investment from Deutsche Bank Google, Facebook, Apple and Snap in the last quarter?

It's not all doom and gloom. Of course, if it fits your agenda, then carry on, but it will lead to depression with your apocalyptic predictions.

Are you sure, this was recently in the news The revision is disturbing given that foreign direct investment into Britain has collapsed, plummeting from a net £120bn in the first half of last year to a net outflow of £25bn this year.

It's possible that we've just had record outflows cancelling this out I guess but I haven't seen that mentioned.

[nil_desperandum]

Some workers rights in the UK are better than EU workers rights. maternity/Paternity leave etc.

You can research it yourself though IT, it'll keep you busy for a while.

You are correct about the UK having a longer period of maternity leave, but other than that we're pretty near the bottom of the league.
Only Switzerland and Ireland come out worse according to these stats.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 81456.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Damo]

Frances 35 hour per week rule, and the fact we have to top up their pensions because of it, is as good a reason for Brexit as I can think of

[nil_desperandum]

Frances 35 hour per week rule, and the fact we have to top up their pensions because of it, is as good a reason for Brexit as I can think of

I'm genuinely bemused by this statement. I've never heard anything about this, and I've been googling for about 15 minutes and can't find any link or reference to it. Can you please give us some idea what this refers to.?

[Imploding Turtle]

I'll say it again in case you missed it.

They get rid of current workers rights and they won't get back into power again for a while.

If they can convince workers to vote against their interests by voting Leave then it'll be pretty easy to do it again when it comes to saying "Brexit was a disaster, if you want to keep your jobs we're going to have to clamp down on unions, or sick pay, or maternity pay, or tribunal rights (oh wait, they already did that one), or health and safety at work rights..." etc.

[JohnMcGreal]

I'll say it again in case you missed it.

They get rid of current workers rights and they won't get back into power again for a while.

Firstly, I think you're underestimating the power and influence of the right wing press, who, should that scenario play out, would paint it as an inconvenient but necessary action to 'make Britain a great global power again.'

Secondly, I think you're underestimating just how many people would swallow it. There would still be people agreeing that their rights should be taken away, whilst mumbling something about the last Labour government crashing the economy.

[Sidney1st]

What rights have we lost then with the Tories being in charge?

Nothing much has changed for me...

[Sidney1st]

Plus Brexit hasn't been a disaster yet and may not be in the long term, you're just guessing.

[ClaretMoffitt]

Plus Brexit hasn't been a disaster yet and may not be in the long term, you're just guessing.

I think a lot of people will be genuinely devastated if their Brexit implosion never comes. They won't ever admit it though, they will just make mountains out of molehills and constantly put up "whataboutery" arguments that we would be 10x better off by now if we stayed in.

[Bin Ont Turf]

On the Brighton board they have one thread for all Brexit conversation.

It's titled...... Brexit name calling and points scoring etc.

Cracking

[Spijed]

Plus Brexit hasn't been a disaster yet and may not be in the long term, you're just guessing.

And forecasts regarding any potential success of Brexit is purely guesswork as well. For example, the article that Ringo posted about families saving up to £300 per year on groceries is purely nothing more than a figure plucked out of the air. They could have said families could save £100, £200, £400 or even £500 per annum and it would be no more or less accurate.

[Sidney1st]

Yeah I know it's guesswork on both sides, which what I find amusing a lot of the time when people state things as fact when nothing has been signed off yet in regards to the deal so we don't know anything that could happen.

It could be the best, or worst thing ever, but personally I think it will settle down and be somewhere in the middle and we will wonder what all the fuss is about.

[HatfieldClaret]

You are correct about the UK having a longer period of maternity leave, but other than that we're pretty near the bottom of the league.
Only Switzerland and Ireland come out worse according to these stats.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 81456.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Paternity leave, pretty much the same as everyone else apart from Finland who are streets ahead of everyone there.

Maternity leave, better in the UK than most

Leave, pretty much the same as everyone but just less Bank Holidays. If all these other bone idle Latin Mediterranean countries didn't have so many Bank Holidays, the UK wouldn't get so fed up baling them out all the time.

16 weeks paid leave to care for their children !!
No wonder the German economy needs a million more workforce and the French do sod all in their 35 hour week.

Don't see much of an erosion of workers' rights there.... Yo'll have to try harder than that ND

[Spijed]

Yeah I know it's guesswork on both sides, which what I find amusing a lot of the time when people state things as fact when nothing has been signed off yet in regards to the deal so we don't know anything that could happen.

It could be the best, or worst thing ever, but personally I think it will settle down and be somewhere in the middle and we will wonder what all the fuss is about.

I agree.

[Lancasterclaret]

I think a lot of people will be genuinely devastated if their Brexit implosion never comes. They won't ever admit it though, they will just make mountains out of molehills and constantly put up "whataboutery" arguments that we would be 10x better off by now if we stayed in.

Right back at you. If it all goes tits up, people like Farage will blame it on the EU or the govt, rather than actual Brexit itself.

I hope it all goes off without a hitch, without the UK breaking up, without more problems in the job market, without more racial tension, without more parliamentary democracy being superseded to sort out impossible to sort out political divisions.

I hope it does, I'd wave a flag 10 times harder than even Ringo does if it meant that would happen.

But it won't, simply because we haven't prepared for it and are not prepared to accept the fact that we haven't prepared for it.

[Sidney1st]

Prepare for it?

Its never been done and the terms are being negotiated.

How do you prepare for something when you don't know what's coming and there are restrictions on us doing other things like negotiations for new trade deals because we are still technically part of the EU...

[Lancasterclaret]

by not triggering Article 50 till everything is ready simply.

We haven't even done the impact studies (well, we are doing some more, which tells you all you need to know about the ones the govt have currently got).

Fail to prepare, prepare to fail

[Sidney1st]

How long would the EU have been willing to wait though?
It does feel sometimes like they're hurrying some of this along.

[Lancasterclaret]

Eh?

We triggered article 50, and gave ourselves a two year limit to change 40 years worth of changes.

[taio]

Not if a transitional deal is agreed.

[Sidney1st]

Yes we triggered it, but I thought there was pressure from the EU to get on with it.
I could be wrong.

There are restrictions on us negotiating trade deals with other countries until we've left the EU, that's also a hindrance.

As for impact studies, it would all be a guess, just like some of the doom predictions have been.
Its just a case of getting on with it, but the Tories would rather fight amongst themselves whilst Corbyn witters on from the sidelines making promises we know he would struggle to keep.

[LoveCurryPies]

A friend who owns a large construction company says the major works in London are starting to dry up as the European investments are coming to an end. He’s selling up before the industry crashes.

[Lancasterclaret]

Not if a transitional deal is agreed.

Agreed. Problem is that even that can't be agreed by the govt due to the divisions in their party.

[nil_desperandum]

Eh?

We triggered article 50, and gave ourselves a two year limit to change 40 years worth of changes.

Reported in most - if not all the - papers just today:
"Former EU ambassador Ivan Rodgers says triggering Article 50 early means UK is 'screwed'
Sir Ivan claims he warned ministers not to invoke proceedings without a clear plan, but said he had been ‘heavily opposed’ by people in London"