Out of my tiny mind - YT

[Vegas Claret]

Deconstructing this…

Facts:

- the average xG for the top 2 is not 1.96 or close to that
- for reference our 101 point team averaged 1.45 p/90
- SP’s 2nd place Bournemouth had 1.65 xG/90
- our current xG/90 is 1.1, not 0.86
- xGA is also important (chances against) and we are 2nd

what was the XG of the top two last season ? I deffo saw something up at 1.9* for the top two historically over the last few weeks but clearly didn't remember correctly what it was for. I did say 'something along the lines of'.

[Plissken]

I saw a stat the other week that was something along the lines of the average XG for the top two for the last decade was 1.96 (ish, i don't remember the exact number) and we were at 0.86.

Including the Cardiff game, we have scored 14 goals in 10 home games. Remove that (because, remember, that side got sold from under him) and it is 9 from 9. Two of those are penalties. Against the teams that are in places 5,7,9,14,16,17,19,21,22 (Cardiff) and 23.

[Mattster]

I haven’t checked but other than Sarmiento v Pompey and Jay Rod v Swansea (pen) I don’t think any other sub has scored.

Assume you're excluding Cardiff from this.

If so Brownhill vs Stoke (pen) is the only other.

But, assuming we're excluding Cardiff/Luton then that's a fifth of our goals scored by subs.

[Mattster]

Assume you're excluding Cardiff from this.

If so Brownhill vs Stoke (pen) is the only other.

But, assuming we're excluding Cardiff/Luton then that's a fifth of our goals scored by subs.

And 20% of goals being scored by substitutes is well above average. Based on an Opta article from March this year where the 14.3% of goals scored by subs in English league football was record breakingly high.

[RVclaret]

And 20% of goals being scored by substitutes is well above average. Based on an Opta article from March this year where the 14.3% of goals scored by subs in English league football was record breakingly high.

Interesting. Feels less. What are the numbers for the VK promotion season, surely above average? I still stand by that we’ve not had any real game changers off the bench near enough all season. Even those that scored which you named, we were already winning at those points and fairly comfortable in game state, Sarmiento v Pompey the only one that stands out as ‘yeah, he changed and won the game’. If we are comparing options quickly, Leeds had Ramazani (would start for us), Piroe (would start for us) and Solomon (would start for us) on the bench against Boro.

[Vegas Claret]

Interesting. Feels less. What are the numbers for the VK promotion season, surely above average? I still stand by that we’ve not had any real game changers off the bench near enough all season. Even those that scored which you named, we were already winning at those points and fairly comfortable in game state, Sarmiento v Pompey the only one that stands out as ‘yeah, he changed and won the game’. If we are comparing options quickly, Leeds had Ramazani (would start for us), Piroe (would start for us) and Solomon (would start for us) on the bench against Boro.

There was a question in today's presser about players off the bench, pretty much alluding to your point.

[Mattster]

Interesting. Feels less. What are the numbers for the VK promotion season, surely above average? I still stand by that we’ve not had any real game changers off the bench near enough all season. Even those that scored which you named, we were already winning at those points and fairly comfortable in game state, Sarmiento v Pompey the only one that stands out as ‘yeah, he changed and won the game’. If we are comparing options quickly, Leeds had Ramazani (would start for us), Piroe (would start for us) and Solomon (would start for us) on the bench against Boro.

16 of 87 goals were scored by subs in 22/23, so 18.4%. So above average but fewer than us post Cardiff this season. If we include Cardiff and Luton games it's 5 from 24 so 20.8%.

I don't think Ramizani and Solomon both start ahead of all our wingers, maybe one. And Piroe vs. Flemming/Sarmiento, I'm not sure either.

[RVclaret]

what was the XG of the top two last season ? I deffo saw something up at 1.9* for the top two historically over the last few weeks but clearly didn't remember correctly what it was for. I did say 'something along the lines of'.

Leicester 1.85 p/90
Ipswich 1.61 p/90

[Vegas Claret]

Leicester 1.85 p/90
Ipswich 1.61 p/90

Cheers, I'll have to see if I can find what I saw, it was on twitter somewhere

[RVclaret]

16 of 87 goals were scored by subs in 22/23, so 18.4%. So above average but fewer than us post Cardiff this season. If we include Cardiff and Luton games it's 5 from 24 so 20.8%.

I don't think Ramizani and Solomon both start ahead of all our wingers, maybe one. And Piroe vs. Flemming/Sarmiento, I'm not sure either.

Post Cardiff isn’t it 3/18 (Sarmiento, Brownhill & Jay) so 16.6%, what am I missing?

Anthony and Sarmiento would be fortunate to get off the bench for them this season let’s be honest. Anthony managed 1 goal 0 assists in 30 odd bench appearances last season. Piroe currently has 7 goals 3 assists and would 100% be starting given all the injuries we have in that area (he’s been playing as their 9). Point being they are 3 players our ‘main rival’ (only 3 pts above us still) calls on from the bench, and as yet, we haven’t really had that luxury.

[Mattster]

16 of 87 goals were scored by subs in 22/23, so 18.4%. So above average but fewer than us post Cardiff this season. If we include Cardiff and Luton games it's 5 from 24 so 20.8%.

I don't think Ramizani and Solomon both start ahead of all our wingers, maybe one. And Piroe vs. Flemming/Sarmiento, I'm not sure either.

Of these 16, 6 had no bearing on the result at all. Though one was an equaliser before a win by more than one goal, so let's say 5. So 31.2% made a difference that season compared to 40% this season (with Jay vs Swansea and Sarmiento vs Portsmouth influencing the result).

[Mattster]

Post Cardiff isn’t it 3/18 (Sarmiento, Brownhill & Jay) so 16.6%, what am I missing?

Anthony and Sarmiento would be fortunate to get off the bench for them this season let’s be honest. Anthony managed 1 goal 0 assists in 30 odd bench appearances last season. Piroe currently has 7 goals 3 assists and would 100% be starting given all the injuries we have in that area. Point being they are 3 players our ‘main rival’ (only 3 pts above us still) calls on from the bench, and as yet, we haven’t really had that luxury.

3 of 15. We've scored 24 goals. 9 were scored in the first 2.

[RVclaret]

3 of 15. We've scored 24 goals. 9 were scored in the first 2.

Ah yeah, duhr. I think that just speaks to our lack of total goals on the denominator than the sub goals on the numerator.

[Mattster]

Anthony and Sarmiento would be fortunate to get off the bench for them this season let’s be honest. Anthony managed 1 goal 0 assists in 30 odd bench appearances last season. Piroe currently has 7 goals 3 assists and would 100% be starting given all the injuries we have in that area (he’s been playing as their 9). Point being they are 3 players our ‘main rival’ (only 3 pts above us still) calls on from the bench, and as yet, we haven’t really had that luxury.

Piroe has started over half their games so hardly a bench player for them.

In terms of the players, it comes down whether the output is down to individual ability or the limitations/strengths of the systems they're playing in. I feel the latter is a significant factor and I wouldn't say either Ramazani or Solomon are better than Koleosho (probably not Sarmiento either, though think Sarmiento's best position is probably 10). Piroe would probably have the exact same issues Flemming is having if playing as a 9 for us.

[dandeclaret]

Gave it a go, turned it off after 10 minutes. JUst a whinge, with confusing manipulation of numbers to try and justify why he's bored. Apparently Dyche got patterns of play in relatively quickly..... Did his first season not exist?

Apparently they don't create even 3 chances per game - I'm sure I read there were 10 shots on goal from within the penalty box vs Derby.

Burnley fans getting more entitled by the week. Saw some lad on X , rightly, getting grief off Derby fans, for saying "We should be putting away pub teams like that".

Remember when Preston used to come and sing "We are superior", and we thought they were entitled? Listen to some of the stuff on these vlogs, and podcasts, a few days after 3 wins and 2 draws inside 17 days, and whilst sitting 3 points off the top of the table, with the same amount of points as in the Kompany season.

As my dear departed mum might have said.... some of you lot, you don't know you're born.

[Bordeauxclaret]

When can people voice frustration without being entitled?

Was it entitled to voice frustrations when we in the Premier League for example?

[fidelcastro]

Gave it a go, turned it off after 10 minutes. JUst a whinge, with confusing manipulation of numbers to try and justify why he's bored. Apparently Dyche got patterns of play in relatively quickly..... Did his first season not exist?

Apparently they don't create even 3 chances per game - I'm sure I read there were 10 shots on goal from within the penalty box vs Derby.

Burnley fans getting more entitled by the week. Saw some lad on X , rightly, getting grief off Derby fans, for saying "We should be putting away pub teams like that".

Remember when Preston used to come and sing "We are superior", and we thought they were entitled? Listen to some of the stuff on these vlogs, and podcasts, a few days after 3 wins and 2 draws inside 17 days, and whilst sitting 3 points off the top of the table, with the same amount of points as in the Kompany season.

As my dear departed mum might have said.... some of you lot, you don't know you're born.

Apologies to the Francis Rossi lookalike if I misheard, but didn't he say he wasn't even going to the games anyway?

His frustration seemed to be that his subscription was forcing him to have to watch it on telly.

[Dyched]

Imagine having your team spend millions upon millions on players, thousands upon thousands a week on wages, millions and thousands on a player that refuses to play, spend the majority of the time in the PL over the past decade +, charging on average £40 for walk on fees per game and not expecting your team to beat teams that haven’t been in the PL for a long, long time or well, ever. It’s not being this new buzz word “entitled”, it’s called expectation.

[Clovius Boofus]

I hope Father Christmas brings him some new toys for his pram.

[CoolClaret]

... Accurate channel name at least.

[TheFamilyCat]

Gave it a go, turned it off after 10 minutes. JUst a whinge, with confusing manipulation of numbers to try and justify why he's bored. Apparently Dyche got patterns of play in relatively quickly..... Did his first season not exist?

Apparently they don't create even 3 chances per game - I'm sure I read there were 10 shots on goal from within the penalty box vs Derby.

Burnley fans getting more entitled by the week. Saw some lad on X , rightly, getting grief off Derby fans, for saying "We should be putting away pub teams like that".

Remember when Preston used to come and sing "We are superior", and we thought they were entitled? Listen to some of the stuff on these vlogs, and podcasts, a few days after 3 wins and 2 draws inside 17 days, and whilst sitting 3 points off the top of the table, with the same amount of points as in the Kompany season.

As my dear departed mum might have said.... some of you lot, you don't know you're born.

I don't think anyone described Preston fans as entitled, just gobshites.

[Vegas Claret]

Keep them coming Mike, quite amusing seeing those that can't handle an opinion

[Plissken]

Apologies to the Francis Rossi lookalike if I misheard, but didn't he say he wasn't even going to the games anyway?

His frustration seemed to be that his subscription was forcing him to have to watch it on telly.

No. I said I can't make it to the next few due to the fact that I often work away up to Christmas and then go on holiday during the two weeks because that's the most convenient time for me and my other half. I had intended to get to the Boro game, but life got in the way very badly indeed. My point was that usually I feel a bit of regret about missing games over the holiday, but right now, I'm very "meh" about it.

BTW, it's the "Primark Francis Rossi". I even entitled a previous episode that.

[Plissken]

... Accurate channel name at least.

It's almost as if I intended it to have several meanings, isn't it?

[Plissken]

Keep them coming Mike, quite amusing seeing those that can't handle an opinion

Can't handle facts which contradict their opinion. That's usually the problem.

Haven't had this much abuse in the comments since the racism one.

[Goody1975]

Keep them coming Mike, quite amusing seeing those that can't handle an opinion

Exactly, it's an opinion.

Don't agree with it, fine, but don't be nasty about it.

Don't like his opinion, then don't listen, life has choices.

[Indecisive]

Gave it a go, turned it off after 10 minutes. JUst a whinge, with confusing manipulation of numbers to try and justify why he's bored. Apparently Dyche got patterns of play in relatively quickly..... Did his first season not exist?

Apparently they don't create even 3 chances per game - I'm sure I read there were 10 shots on goal from within the penalty box vs Derby.

Burnley fans getting more entitled by the week. Saw some lad on X , rightly, getting grief off Derby fans, for saying "We should be putting away pub teams like that".

Remember when Preston used to come and sing "We are superior", and we thought they were entitled? Listen to some of the stuff on these vlogs, and podcasts, a few days after 3 wins and 2 draws inside 17 days, and whilst sitting 3 points off the top of the table, with the same amount of points as in the Kompany season.

As my dear departed mum might have said.... some of you lot, you don't know you're born.

100% agree with this. Don’t know why I continue to read this board this season, because there’s times you just end up completely drained by both the negativity and endless criticism.

The actual considered reasoned arguments and interesting debates on here are increasingly scarce. Probably if you look closer it’s exacerbated by a smallish group often spamming the place with the same old crap, but it is draining.

[Plissken]

Once more unto the breach...

"Napoleon's Generals" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRKYGqzUSN4

[CleggHall]

Reasoned and reflective this week, little to argue with.
Interesting that the negativity last week generated many responses, I was taken aback with your anger and views on Scott Parker but his Norwich “get out of jail card” has calmed things down …for now!
A good weekend to be a Claret.

[Plissken]

Been on holiday. Did I miss anything important?

"Expanding the Property Portfolio" - https://youtu.be/hRf9FUB1_OI

[CleggHall]

Thanks Mike, never too high never too low?!
But you do like beating them down the road.

[Plissken]

I'm finding that my highs are higher than some and the lows lower than others.

[Plissken]

Late night publish for the vlog.

“Crying for my hammy” - https://youtu.be/sJASvvr4N0k?si=gP9X-qlaDP5S8zx1

[CleggHall]

An entertaining report on an entertaining game. You clearly enjoyed the evening and your views on the referee are at odds with most on this board, however you could well be right! Thanks again.

[Plissken]

Latest OOMTM vlog. It started off cheerful enough...

Dying Wondering - https://youtu.be/Hk-q157XcsM

[CleggHall]

Agreed a goodish transfer window, 2 good games v Oxford and Southampton, what’s not to like?

[Plissken]

I'm not angry, I'm just disappointed. No, actually, I'm a little bit annoyed.

"Jam Tomorrow" - https://youtu.be/5wKMlOX1WKU

[CleggHall]

Yes Mike “relax and enjoy the football “ never happens these days.
A disappointing day out but thanks for sharing it with us, utc.

[Goody1975]

I'm not angry, I'm just disappointed. No, actually, I'm a little bit annoyed.

"Jam Tomorrow" - https://youtu.be/5wKMlOX1WKU

Haven't had chance to listen yet but 'Jam Tomorrow' is a phrase I used before the Sheffield Wednesday game. Hopefully, I will get chance this afternoon.

Screenshot_2025-03-04-10-08-09-131_com.android.chrome-edit.jpg (162.22 KiB) Viewed 1545 times

It's too late at the end of the season to look back with regrets, about whether we could have done more or been braver in tight games.

Parker will live or die by which division we are in at the end of May. The context is still the same in regards to the team selection at the weekend, if we win tonight then the noise around it will subside somewhat, but he is opening himself up for criticism by putting all his eggs in one basket.

A wise man once said 'trust the process'. That's what we are doing as a fan base but it isn't half frustrating.

[ChorltonCharlie]

I'd agree with a lot of that. the way I'd put it is other teams play like they want to score. There's a feeling of urgency from them when they get the ball. We're so patient it's like there's an arrogance we'll score. We slow everything down so much because we want the opposition to get set thinking we're so much superior we'll just find ways through them. We've now played Preston 3 times this season and failed to score in any of them. That's not coincidence. There's no plan B from us and they were able to nullify our attacking intent with ease and by the third game they'd worked out how they could score against us.

[Plissken]

New vlog - The Newcastle Cup win, recapping the games vs Luton, West Brom and Swansea and someone quietly having by far his best goal scoring season.

"Hiding in Plain Sight" - https://youtu.be/et0JiJqAarY

[CleggHall]

Nice that you highlight Brownhill’s goal scoring productivity, an excellent player who flies below the horizon, also the scandalous Newcastle Saudis who go unnoticed at SJP.

[Plissken]

New vlog - the Norwich game, thoughts on the the other two clubs going for promotion.

"Er...phew?" - https://youtu.be/JtgmKowdgYI

[CoolClaret]

Nice to skim-read back through this and see just how hysterical and WRONG people were.... Anyone seen Mattster?

[GetIntoEm]

Should print it out and get someone to read it out off the town hall balcony on open top bus day

[Plissken]

Sometimes when doing the vlog, I just don't know what to talk about. Anything of significance happen this weekend?

“Word Up” - https://youtu.be/3J5MfJ1-cKQ

[CleggHall]

Sums it up well Mike, workmanlike grafters who gave their all for a full season. 4 promotions is more than anyone could ask for, Burnley are indeed in the top 20 English football teams. Up the Clarets!

[Plissken]

Last one of the season, covering the Millwall game, the post match and the season as a whole.

"Floaty 00's Pop Strumpets" - https://youtu.be/-1LPdaRZ0X0

[Plissken]

The Club World Cup champions (no, not that one), a round-up of Burnley's transfer business plus the pundits are Deliberately Not Noticing Again.

"Cheques and Imbalances" - https://youtu.be/wq4HVfzNXkc

[giveusaB]

Hi Mike,I think the film you were referring to starring Dennis Waterman is “A captain’s tale”.
It’s available on YouTube.Link below,cheers.

https://youtu.be/oCfybENNh1k?feature=shared