Russia Invades

[Vegas Claret]

Rumours that thousands of Wagner are already in Moscow having infiltrated under the guise of civilians.

I’ve read that Wagner could be as close as 100km from Moscow now- but I haven’t seen that geolocated, unless anyone else can confirm?

given how quickly this is moving it would suggest a very well orchestrated plan, with that in mind I would imagine there have been plenty of Wagner in and around Moscow for days. This is not something I ever thought we would see

[elwaclaret]

would a complete coup by prigozhin be a good thing?

he has talked in the past about using tactical nukes.

Best guesses seem to be No. Wagner fell out over tactics in crushing Ukraine, not crushing Ukraine.

Only absolute good is it is weakening the ability to attack Ukraine.

[AlargeClaret]

I dont think Kadyrov would be able to do too much damage to Wagner group. I'm dubious they would start a confrontation- possibly join them though if Kadyrov can be persuaded theres something in it for him.

They’re only a few 1000 strong anyway , far as I know they were deployed in Maryinka in June . Can’t see them even trying to engage with Wagner they’ve no chance . Though like you say they might just join em for the right price .

[yTib]

Best guesses seem to be No. Wagner fell out over tactics in crushing Ukraine, not crushing Ukraine.

Only absolute good is it is weakening the ability to attack Ukraine.

yeah but if they seize control it could strengthen russia's offensive against ukraine.

worst case scenario: prigozhin seizes power and uses nukes on the battlefield. this pulls nato into the war properly and it escalates.

[TsarBomba]

https://twitter.com/guyelster/status/16 ... Gkg4Pp-4vg

Russia mayor advising residents to stay in doors, and that the situation is ‘difficult’.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Claims some senior russian diplomats and families have landed in Turkey, others considering Uruguay

[TsarBomba]

https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status ... Gkg4Pp-4vg

Eyewitness reports of Wagner being 2 hours drive from Moscow.

[elwaclaret]

yeah but if they seize control it could strengthen russia's offensive against ukraine.

worst case scenario: prigozhin seizes power and uses nukes on the battlefield. this pulls nato into the war properly and it escalates.

Any scenario from a complete breakup of Russia into nation states to a Chinese invasion of the contested regions given USSR in 1969… has Wagner got a deal with Ukraine… literally all the experts are as in the dark on what is about to result as the rest of us.

It is a day when the world is watching, because the world will never be the same again… for good or bad.

[Vegas Claret]

Best guesses seem to be No. Wagner fell out over tactics in crushing Ukraine, not crushing Ukraine.

Only absolute good is it is weakening the ability to attack Ukraine.

didn't he say he was against the war in Ukraine ? I'm sure he did at some point

[yTib]

others considering Uruguay

please let this be true.

it will be poetic justice to those pigs with their 'de-nazification' shtick.

[elwaclaret]

Nexta: The bridge over the Moskva River will hold back Prigozhin's mercenaries until the end.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/167 ... XbpxEsmRVg

[AlargeClaret]

https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status ... Gkg4Pp-4vg

Eyewitness reports of Wagner being 2 hours drive from Moscow.

They’d have to drive bloody fast it’s over 1000km to Moscow from Rostov in a slow moving military column needing constant refuelling etc ?

[Spijed]

didn't he say he was against the war in Ukraine ? I'm sure he did at some point

So makes you wonder why he agreed to go along with it.

[elwaclaret]

didn't he say he was against the war in Ukraine ? I'm sure he did at some point

Made a few noises, but has only come out and said it after realising today Putin has stood by his military leaders, best guess he was hoping Putin would welcome him to take over… when that didn’t happen he said the war was wrong… many think it’s the same argument.. not that the war itself is wrong but the implementation has been since day one.

[yTib]

So makes you wonder why he agreed to go along with it.

apparently he has said that eastern ukrainians are 'genetically russian'.

when you consider that is similar rhetoric to what hitler was on about i'm not massively encouraged.

[Vegas Claret]

So makes you wonder why he agreed to go along with it.

he said it very recently. Lots of conjecture that this coup is well above Wagner's head given how easily they've breezed through Russia so far, not too much resistance (and they are just being well paid to front it (obvious)..) This is going to get very very messy

[elwaclaret]

Nexta: #Lukashenka held two secret meetings with security and military officials against the background of the events in #Russia

"The meetings were held in the morning and in the afternoon. The leaders of the security bloc and the military were invited to them," said his press secretary.

It is noteworthy that it was not the #Belarusian, but the Russian media that were the first to report this, and the information appeared only in the evening.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/167 ... XbpxEsmRVg

[elwaclaret]

he said it very recently. Lots of conjecture that this coup is well above Wagner's head given how easily they've breezed through Russia so far, not too much resistance (and they are just being well paid to front it (obvious)..) This is going to get very very messy

Fascinating how it’s unfurling… and seeing all those closest to it so wrong footed is amazing. Literally History on the hoof…

[TsarBomba]

They’d have to drive bloody fast it’s over 1000km to Moscow from Rostov in a slow moving military column needing constant refuelling etc ?

There’s at least 2 columns.

Prigozhin has set up base in a deep bunker in Rostov.

Utkin is heading another from Voronezh through Lipetsk towards Moscow.

[Vegas Claret]

Fascinating how it’s unfurling… and seeing all those closest to it so wrong footed is amazing. Literally History on the hoof…

yep, staggering turn of events - one thing we don't want is Prigozhin being anywhere near the big weapons though ! Lots of things going on that we will never find out about. The fact Putin has fled is also pretty spectacular imho.

[TsarBomba]

And regarding Utkin- he is a Neo-Nazi psychopath with SS tattoos, and gave Wagner its name after Hitler’s favourite composer.

[yTib]

has it been confirmed that putin has indeed fled?

i'd be rather sceptical about that one.

[AlargeClaret]

There’s at least 2 columns.

Prigozhin has set up base in a deep bunker in Rostov.

Utkin is heading another from Voronezh through Lipetsk towards Moscow.

Are there any reports of RUS vs RUS contact yet? It’s hard to see Putin putting together a fully battle ready division or 2 to stop this . Though by rights you’d have expected a huge Air threat to Wagner .

[Vegas Claret]

has it been confirmed that putin has indeed fled?

i'd be rather sceptical about that one.

well the Russian equivalent of AF1 100% left Moscow and turned off the transponder, that's undeniable. For him to not be on it would be very strange.

[yTib]

well the Russian equivalent of AF1 100% left Moscow and turned off the transponder, that's undeniable. For him to not be on it would be very strange.

or typical subterfuge.

regardless, it's good to see that little brat flustered.

[Vegas Claret]

Are there any reports of RUS vs RUS contact yet? It’s hard to see Putin putting together a fully battle ready division or 2 to stop this . Though by rights you’d have expected a huge Air threat to Wagner .

that plays into where the orders are coming from though, if it's from the higher ups in Russia as rumoured then maybe not - look how easy they've walked through Russia so far. I don't know obviously just putting things out there !

[Vegas Claret]

or typical subterfuge.

regardless, it's good to see that little brat flustered.

well one of the IL96PU's left for certain, I think there are two so who knows. I'd be surprised if he's sitting in the Kremlin as he's been beyond paranoid for decades, today must feel like he's smoked 10 big bags of weed for Putin !

[elwaclaret]

Sergej Sumlenny:
My working hypothesis (!): Prigozhin is a face of a mighty FSB-led anti-Putin coup, with a goal to exit the war by selling Putin to The Hague as a freedom token, and to sign a peace deal. It is Stauffenberg 2.0: saving the Reich from losing a war by eliminating a toxic Führer.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/167 ... XbpxEsmRVg

[Vegas Claret]

Russian Mayor has declared Monday is a "non working day" - He declared Monday to be a nonworking day for most residents except public servants and some industrial enterprises.

[elwaclaret]

Kyiv Independent:

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin declared a state of emergency in Russia’s capital, adding that counter-terrorist operation measures have been declared. Sobyanin said Moscow residents, with the exception of authorities, must stay home.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... XbpxEsmRVg

[yTib]

well one of the IL96PU's left for certain, I think there are two so who knows. I'd be surprised if he's sitting in the Kremlin as he's been beyond paranoid for decades, today must feel like he's smoked 10 big bags of weed for Putin !

the thought of vlad sitting in a corner with a bong in one hand and a kebab in the other is very amusing.

[Vegas Claret]

Sergej Sumlenny:
My working hypothesis (!): Prigozhin is a face of a mighty FSB-led anti-Putin coup, with a goal to exit the war by selling Putin to The Hague as a freedom token, and to sign a peace deal. It is Stauffenberg 2.0: saving the Reich from losing a war by eliminating a toxic Führer.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/167 ... XbpxEsmRVg

pretty much summarizes what i've read on a few feeds, given the ease of progress (so far) towards Moscow it makes sense. I don't see a way that Putin wouldn't be bombarding the Wagner convoys if he had the control he thought he had, something is afoot !!

[elwaclaret]

pretty much summarizes what i've read on a few feeds, given the ease of progress (so far) towards Moscow it makes sense. I don't see a way that Putin wouldn't be bombarding the Wagner convoys if he had the control he thought he had, something is afoot !!

That much is certain… at least.

[elwaclaret]

OSINTTechnical: Russian Rosgvardiya forces deploy along a road embankment in Moscow

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 25664?s=12

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA: Shots can be heard again near the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/167 ... XbpxEsmRVg

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA: A member of the Wagner PMC opened fire at the entrance to the Rostelekom building in Rostov-on-Don.

It is not yet clear what caused the shooting.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/167 ... XbpxEsmRVg

[AlargeClaret]

Could Vlad end up like Gadaffi ? When his forces swapped sides when it looked like they were losing . Though Putin being caught with a golden pistol , having a sharp implement rammed up his ar@e and breathing his last in a flat bed pickup truck would be quite a thing .

[yTib]

Could Vlad end up like Gadaffi ? When his forces swapped sides when it looked like they were losing . Though Putin being caught with a golden pistol , having a sharp implement rammed up his ar@e and breathing his last in a flat bed pickup truck would be quite a thing .

seeing putin getting sexually assaulted by an angry mob would have me stuffing my face with popcorn.

[Vegas Claret]

OSINTTechnical: Russian Rosgvardiya forces deploy along a road embankment in Moscow

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 25664?s=12

that'll stop them

[elwaclaret]

that'll stop them

Shows they either think they are imminent… or that the populace is in need of reassurance, either way a hell of a shock for those millions who believed everything they were being told from Moscow.

[Vegas Claret]

this seems like a good time to once again thank all of you for keeping this thread so informative, even though I don't post on it much I do read a lot of it - you've all done a great job in collating as much accurate information as you can and have given some great insight. Truly top work lads

[elwaclaret]

OSINTTechnical: Images of part of the Wagner convoy outside of Voronezh earlier today, with a few thoughts.

- T-72B3 on a heavy equipment transporter, with the crew riding in the tank, theoretically they could roll off very quickly or even engage a target from the transporter.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... XbpxEsmRVg

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA: Opposition politician Mikhail Khodorkovsky urged Russians to arm themselves

"1) Now we see that only armed people can resist a dictatorship.

2) Prigozhin's mutiny will end with his or Putin's personal elimination. After that, there will be a reaction and tightening of the screws anyway.

3) So now there is a small window of opportunity when there is chaos in the streets and the security forces are not in control.

4) If you see in yourself the power in the future to become the armed men who will oppose Putin or Prigozhin, then it's time to arm yourselves.

5) Prigozhin is not our friend or even ally. He is a thug and a war criminal. But his rebellion is a unique opportunity, and there won't be another like it for a long time," wrote Khodorkovsky in his telegram channel.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/167 ... XbpxEsmRVg

[NewClaret]

Been at a football tournament today but have been following this thread avidly. Thanks to all who’ve been posting the twitter links and keeping us updated.

Incredible news. When Lancaster first started posting this last night I thought we’d heard it all before from Wagner and it was more hot air but today has been quite remarkable.

I’m desperate to see if they do make a proper push on Moscow and intrigued as to why they haven’t been taken out by air already.

But whatever the outcome here, I don’t see how this can be anything other than good news for Ukraine. Presumably they now have 25k less Wagner troops to contend with, who’ll likely either be killed attempting a coup or be needed for the foreseeable to secure their position in Russia. Plus the likelihood that the mutiny spreads to the Russian troops must be really high. I can see this being the end of the war.

[elwaclaret]

Wow 24 hours ago they were saying all is going to plan, now they are blowing up their own bridges to Moscow and using it for propaganda…

NEXTA: Russian propagandists wrote that a bridge between the village of Anna and the town of Borisoglebsk in the Voronezh region was blown up.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/167 ... XbpxEsmRVg

[elwaclaret]

New Voice of Ukraine:

Russia's Wagner mercenary forces had reportedly crossed the borders of Moscow Oblast as of 1700 local time on June 24 and have advanced closer to the Russian capital, Russian Telegram channels reported on June 24.

https://twitter.com/newvoiceukraine/sta ... XbpxEsmRVg

[Vegas Claret]

this is such a huge opportunity for Ukraine to push Russia further out of their country

[dermotdermot]

God knows how this is all going to end.

[Vegas Claret]

BBC saying Belarus leaders office claims Prigozhin has agreed to de-escalate the situation........

[Taffy on the wing]

This could be like the police chasing OJ Simpson live ! It’s almost too hard to believe .

That was the night i met my wife!