Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:43 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:followed by

Its okay to be a Brexit backer, its not okay to try to pretend that you are not.

Far from it. I am for brexit and voted for it. I did so for the very reasons I am discussing.
I.e. the constitution of our country, there has been an election when both parties stood on the leave platform, and the signs that Europe was going to turn into a bear pit if the Nationalists of Europe radical left and right took control. Three years on all still seem to be reasonable arguments, with even more weight than at the time the vote was talked. Europe shows all the signs of a MAJOR shakeup politically and I don’t want to be in it when the **** hits the fan.

People will ignore this too, but hey ho...

SmudgetheClaret · Post by **SmudgetheClaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:43 am

If May does go (and lets be fair shes a compulsive liar) whos your choice mine..

1, Dominic Raab
2, Boris
3,Gove (dont trust him much)
4,Shaun Dyche

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:43 am

elwaclaret wrote:Really. Are we not a first past the post democracy?

It was the largest voter turn out in history. A mandate was given and the findings accepted. Unless I’ve missed some law being passed you are calling the constitution nonsense again.

Think I’ll leave this thread. People are too intrentched to even consider anything they don’t want to hear.

Like I say we’ll see.

I don't blame you, everybody needs a cut off point & it can make you weary, it seems to be a constant battle debating fact over fiction, best hopping in & out.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:45 am

summitclaret wrote:I don't think she will take mv3 anytime soon. It looks like her only chance is an 11 april choice between May's deal and no deal and if Labour don't back her deal then they will be responsible for no deal.

Yes of course they will. Despite the fact that on current numbers May could win the vote if her whole party backed her, even without the DUP, it will be Labours fault.

Rick_Muller · Post by **Rick_Muller** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:47 am

SmudgetheClaret wrote:If May does go (and lets be fair shes a compulsive liar) whos your choice mine..

1, Dominic Raab
2, Boris
3,Gove (dont trust him much)
4,Shaun Dyche

Its like deciding which sauce you want to dip your own testicles in before you eat them...

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:47 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:I'd be able to take your posts with a lot more seriousness if you stopped the hyperbole.

But anyway, if the technical solutions are not an issue and they are bound to be found asap, then the backstop isn't an issue.

You know this. I know this.

The problem is the technical solutions are not available without some sort of infrastructure, which because of the GFA (and the situation on the ground) are not an option.

So its a customs union (type of) which would get passed, and would solve the issue.

And that would get through parliament and would mean we leave the EU.

Its actually not that hard if you don't have red lines.

Not a word of hyperbole in what I said. Protectionist? Tick. Gravy train? Tick. Racket? Well, ok, maybe I’ll give you that one, but only because I can’t prove it.

I fully appreciate the border problems. Yesterday I was marched by officials across the Gibraltar / Spain border to get a bus to Malaga airport for my diverted plane. The border was chaos then. I can only imagine what it will be like if we have goods checks or no free movement.

So I’m all for recognising the Irish issue - but, for the sectors where we don’t have regulatory alignment in the future, there must be other options (trusted traders, number plate recognition etc). Any low level smuggling outside this won’t exactly dent the EU or U.K. finances. If the Irish are so twitchy that they can’t handle a camera on a stick at each crossing point, they need to be told by both Brussels and Westminster to give their heads a wobble - the GFA doesn’t prevent that, and if it does, it needs reviewing.

Thus as I have said many times I conclude that this whole thing is a Brussels tactic to get us in a CU and maintain (mainly) German domination of the economy. Why, oh why, are some supposedly clever people in favour of this CU on our side? All it would do is prevent the loss of some jobs in the short term. It would gain us nothing. We would be on a steady decline for decades. Idiocy, idiocy, idiocy.

But yes, vote for the deal, backstop risks notwithstanding.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:51 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:Mays Deal needs to go through.

But it won't.

So something else needs to go through.

Parliament is absolutely opposed to "No Deal" and the harder forms of Brexit.

Mays Deal + customs union would walk it, Mays Deal with confirmatory referendum would as well.

Up to those MPs who are of the same mind set on Brexit as Dsr, Crosspool and Colburn to compromise now.

Why do I need to compromise.
I dont want the CU, or a second referendum.
Personally, I dont think the country gives a **** about what Parliament wants or doesn't want, it just wants them to deliver on the referendum. Leave on the 12th, with no deal, trade under WTO, I'm fine with that. MPs can go sit on the naughty step.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:54 am

SmudgetheClaret wrote:If May does go (and lets be fair shes a compulsive liar) whos your choice mine..

1, Dominic Raab
2, Boris
3,Gove (dont trust him much)

I'll go with my 6 old nephew over any of those.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:57 am

martin_p wrote:Wow, that’s some seriously selective maths you’ve used there! What nonsense!

https://twitter.com/awstojanovic/status ... 78688?s=21

The graph linked to this tweet from the Institute for Government proves my maths are spot on. Fewer Tories oppose her deal than any of these options, even fewer if they brought it back for MV3.

I know there is a temptation to hope Labour whip their MPs to a soft Brexit, that could happen, but the Tories are in government and hold the power. Parliament won’t be able to legislate without the government, and were it to come to it, the Tories would be whipped too.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:03 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:Why do I need to compromise.
I dont want the CU, or a second referendum.
Personally, I dont think the country gives a **** about what Parliament wants or doesn't want, it just wants them to deliver on the referendum. Leave on the 12th, with no deal, trade under WTO, I'm fine with that. MPs can go sit on the naughty step.

No **** mate, you've made it perfectly clear that you will only settle for what you want and you still talk as if you represent 17.4 million people.

Colossal arrogance.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:09 pm

elwaclaret wrote:Really. Are we not a first past the post democracy?

Not really.We use a whole variety of different voting methods. Mayoral elections are on a STV basis for instance.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:12 pm

Mayoral elections are not national elections, but you may have a point

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:14 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:https://twitter.com/awstojanovic/status ... 78688?s=21

The graph linked to this tweet from the Institute for Government proves my maths are spot on. Fewer Tories oppose her deal than any of these options, even fewer if they brought it back for MV3.

I know there is a temptation to hope Labour whip their MPs to a soft Brexit, that could happen, but the Tories are in government and hold the power. Parliament won’t be able to legislate without the government, and were it to come to it, the Tories would be whipped too.

It will take 75 Tories to change their minds for May’s deal to get through. It will take four Tories to change their mind for the Customs Union amendment to get through. Which do you think is closer?

South West Claret. · Post by **South West Claret.** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:18 pm

Pardon me for asking but is the weather up there in the grim north still peeing down as some of you lot who are not inside and working seem to be spending an awful lot of time indoors on here and on this thread.

PS: No bad language in your answers please as this is a family board you know

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:22 pm

South West Claret. wrote:Pardon me for asking but is the weather up there in the grim north still peeing down as some of you lot who are not inside and working seem to be spending an awful lot of time indoors on here and on this thread.

PS: No bad language in your answers please as this is a family board you know

No beautiful day up here, actually. I have my Work hat on today, rather than student hat but I’m on the iPad while the work computer backs up lol

South West Claret. · Post by **South West Claret.** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:25 pm

elwaclaret wrote:No beautiful day up here, actually. I have my Work hat on today, rather than student hat but I’m on the iPad while the work computer backs up lol

That sounds like a good job any vacancies?

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:32 pm

South West Claret. wrote:That sounds like a good job any vacancies?

Sadly not... l’m self employed and work my week to allow for my full time studies, so a bit of down time is welcome

claretonthecoast1882 · Post by **claretonthecoast1882** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:32 pm

Rick_Muller wrote:Its like deciding which sauce you want to dip your own testicles in before you eat them...

In that case Dyche

South West Claret. · Post by **South West Claret.** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:42 pm

elwaclaret wrote:Sadly not... l’m self employed and work my week to allow for my full time studies, so a bit of down time is welcome

Most certainly you want some downtime

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:53 pm

martin_p wrote:It will take 75 Tories to change their minds for May’s deal to get through. It will take four Tories to change their mind for the Customs Union amendment to get through. Which do you think is closer?

I think more significantly, if May's deal doesn't get through this week, at the 2nd set of indicative votes on Monday, MPs like Umunna, Heidi Allen, Woolaston, Gapes, Lee etc who didn't vote for Clarke's Customs Union compromise yesterday because they wanted to throw all their weight behind a People's Vote, will vote for it once the options are narrowed down.
There was more support for Clarke's proposal than for May's deal, and there are a lot more MPs who will support it, if it comes to a choice between it and a harder brexit.
It seems to me it's all down to the DUP and ERG now. If they can sneak May over the line, then that's what we get- otherwise Clarke's proposal will almost certainly carry the day.
As I type: DUP have confirmed again that they won't support May.

Jakubclaret · Post by **Jakubclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:58 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote:Why do I need to compromise.
I dont want the CU, or a second referendum.
Personally, I dont think the country gives a **** about what Parliament wants or doesn't want, it just wants them to deliver on the referendum. Leave on the 12th, with no deal, trade under WTO, I'm fine with that. MPs can go sit on the naughty step.

I agree, it's not unreasonable to expect something you've voted for to be delivered, a no deal in my opinion wouldn't hit the working class despite people claiming it would.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:59 pm

summitclaret wrote:If I was PM i would now take mv3 tomorrow on this basis
3 line whip plus i.e. vote for it or you will not be allowed to stand as a tory at the next GE

When Labour Party members were talking about deselecting some MPs for supporting Tory austerity and being disloyal that was described as outrageous and stalinist, yet here you are advocating the same thing over just one bill.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:03 pm

Europe shows all the signs of a MAJOR shakeup politically and I don’t want to be in it when the **** hits the fan.

People will ignore this too, but hey ho...

We have a border with it. What affects them, affects us.

South West Claret. · Post by **South West Claret.** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:15 pm

AndrewJB wrote:When Labour Party members were talking about deselecting some MPs for supporting Tory austerity and being disloyal that was described as outrageous and stalinist, yet here you are advocating the same thing over just one bill.

I think they call that double standards.

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:17 pm

Or whataboutery.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:20 pm

martin_p wrote:It will take 75 Tories to change their minds for May’s deal to get through. It will take four Tories to change their mind for the Customs Union amendment to get through. Which do you think is closer?

Seriously. What about those that did not vote? Such as the cabinet. Anyway in the next round the tories whip against CU etc.

You need to get about 313 votes to win it won't happen.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:21 pm

You sound a lot more confident than you probably should be Summit.

That would be a Brexit that most could live with to be fair as well.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:23 pm

AndrewJB wrote:When Labour Party members were talking about deselecting some MPs for supporting Tory austerity and being disloyal that was described as outrageous and stalinist, yet here you are advocating the same thing over just one bill.

Just onw Bill! Its the biggest issue for 70 years for the country and something that could be the end of the party. So course you would do it.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:24 pm

Darthlaw wrote:Or whataboutery.

The anti-intellectual retort. You're not a moron, Darthlaw, so why are you posting like you are?

Pointing out hypocrisy is not "whataboutery". It is pointing out a double standard.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:41 pm

martin_p wrote:It will take 75 Tories to change their minds for May’s deal to get through. It will take four Tories to change their mind for the Customs Union amendment to get through. Which do you think is closer?

“Get through” wouldn’t be the case anyway - it is an indicative vote, nothing more. Like I said, if there was a chance of it becoming law, there would be more whipping involved. This was an attempt to find out the independant will of MPs - then Labour chose to whip it.

But 235 Tory MPs voted against the Customs Union amendment. The Tories are the sitting government. This is the most important bill for decades. So, do I think May’s deal is closer to being approved than the Customs Union despite what you say above? Yes.

I’m not actually convinced Labour want a CU. They are being political, trying to sit on the fence if there is a GE.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:48 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:“Get through” wouldn’t be the case anyway - it is an indicative vote, nothing more. Like I said, if there was a chance of it becoming law, there would be more whipping involved. This was an attempt to find out the independant will of MPs - then Labour chose to whip it.

But 235 Tory MPs voted against the Customs Union amendment. The Tories are the sitting government. This is the most important bill for decades. So, do I think May’s deal is closer to being approved than the Customs Union despite what you say above? Yes.

I’m not actually convinced Labour want a CU. They are being political, trying to sit on the fence if there is a GE.

So essentially your argument is that May’s deal is closest because it’s the only one the government are offering. Nothing to do with the numbers.

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:50 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:The anti-intellectual retort. You're not a moron, Darthlaw, so why are you posting like you are?

Pointing out hypocrisy is not "whataboutery". It is pointing out a double standard.

I neglected the smiley, safe to say it was meant to be a tongue in cheek comment.

The only difference I would suggest, however, is that Labour MP's supporting Tory austerity is different to Tory MP's, who's constituencies have voted Leave, failing to support Brexit.

In the most case it is of course hypocrisy though.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:25 pm

A nice representation of which MPs are voting for which deals

Zoomable version here https://surfdrive.surf.nl/files/index.p ... AWUNavenYs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:26 pm

Tomorrows Government plan sounds absolutely the worst thing to try now.

Its almost like they don't want this to work.

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:36 pm

Like i said, the chances of No Deal are high.

https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/11 ... 3362661376" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Rick_Muller · Post by **Rick_Muller** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:40 pm

aggi wrote:A nice representation of which MPs are voting for which deals

Zoomable version here https://surfdrive.surf.nl/files/index.p ... AWUNavenYs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

would be nice to see the changes over the past few weeks, which have grown, and which have receded

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:42 pm

AndyClaret wrote:Like i said, the chances of No Deal are high.

https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/11 ... 3362661376" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Read the same thing Andy, but mine is based on UK decisions.

And France would have to persuade a lot more countries to back its stance, and it won't do that over this. Would cost too much political capital.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:44 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:No **** mate, you've made it perfectly clear that you will only settle for what you want and you still talk as if you represent 17.4 million people.

Colossal arrogance.

As usual you miss the point completely.

If there were any compromises to be made, they should be between Britain and the EU. Not between the British public and the HOC.
Who the hell do they think they are, dont tell us what you want, we'll tell you what's good for you.

The EU offered us a shite deal, and you seriously want to offer them a deal that they haven't even asked for. A deal even worse for Britain, and even better for the EU.
You're living in the wrong Universe, never mind the wrong planet.

I know you are desperate, but even by your standards that's pathetic.

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:48 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Read the same thing Andy, but mine is based on UK decisions.

And France would have to persuade a lot more countries to back its stance, and it won't do that over this. Would cost too much political capital.

only takes France to veto.....

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:51 pm

As usual you miss the point completely.

If there were any compromises to be made, they should be between Britain and the EU. Not between the British public and the HOC.
Who the hell do they think they are, dont tell us what you want, we'll tell you what's good for you.

The EU offered us a shite deal, and you seriously want to offer them a deal that they haven't even asked for. A deal even worse for Britain, and even better for the EU.
You're living in the wrong Universe, never mind the wrong planet.

I know you are desperate, but even by your standards that's pathetic.

Cheers.

You really do need to do some research on stuff. It would help your argument immensely......well it wouldn't, but you might not make it in the first place.

Learnt about Operation Stack yet?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:52 pm

only takes France to veto.....

Huge political and economic cost Andy. They have to decide whether its worth it.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:53 pm

Still think there is something left to get from the EU as Ireland is desperate to avoid no deal.

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:59 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Huge political and economic cost Andy. They have to decide whether its worth it.

They do, but it's their decision, nothing our MP's can do to stop them.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:01 pm

AndyClaret wrote:They do, but it's their decision, nothing our MP's can do to stop them.

Which will give them an excuse when we revoke article 50.

AndyClaret · Post by **AndyClaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:16 pm

martin_p wrote:Which will give them an excuse when we revoke article 50.

That won't happen.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:20 pm

martin_p wrote:Which will give them an excuse when we revoke article 50.

I tell you what let them force us to revoke. A GE will follow once May goes and any party committing to leave properly next time will smash it

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:21 pm

summitclaret wrote:I tell you what let them force us to revoke. A GE will follow once May goes and any party committing to leave properly next time will smash it

Unless its a Corbyn headed Labour.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:26 pm

He won't commit to anything clear on brexit

ŽižkovClaret · Post by **ŽižkovClaret** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:37 pm

Brexit won't happen

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:54 pm

aggi wrote:A nice representation of which MPs are voting for which deals

Zoomable version here https://surfdrive.surf.nl/files/index.p ... AWUNavenYs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

That’s quite a cool drawing but it ignores the distinction between the options by showing them all on one page. Some are about withdrawal (revoke, no deal), and some are about future trade (preferential trade deal [though that wasn’t on the list yesterday], Customs Union etc), and some are about both (second ref). With all of them there are thus unanswered questions which if answered could dramatically change the appeal of that option.

That mess just goes to show that the MPs haven’t a clue what they are voting on and how to structure it. I am starting to think Letwin is the ultimate example of looking clever and sounding clever but being thick underneath.

Following Letwin’s intervention last week, Bercow has selected a random set of choices, mainly on the soft side. What they should have done is voting in two strands, a) how to withdraw, b) how to trade afterwards.

In 2016 I would have said the withdrawal bit should have been done carefully and gradually over, say, 5 years, and the future trade should be a FTA sitting alongside cooperation in many non-trade areas with no quid pro quo connecting them. I predict if we had done that, everyone would have been happier.