Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:25 pm

Because its not even remotely the same.

You are talking about stuff that changes a lot of things overnight.

And you reckon that will have little or no impact?

I'm very annoyed at Parliament at the moment, because this is just silly.

The only thing that makes any sense is a long extension till we sort ourselves out.

Greenmile · Post by **Greenmile** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:25 pm

dsr wrote:Too subtle, sorry.

What I was saying, in simple terms, is:

1. The economists made desperately gloomy forecasts about failing to join the Euro. They were wrong.
2. The ecomonists made desperately gloomy forecasts about crashing out of the ERM. They were wrong.

Does this mean they are certainly wrong about Brexit? No. Does it mean that we can take their advice about Brexit as if it was gospel truth? Well, you presumably think so. I don't.

So you only believe people who have never been wrong about anything? Must make it nice and easy to ignore anything that doesn’t match your preconceptions, I suppose.

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:26 pm

martin_p wrote:All four options rejected. Three of the very close though. Don’t think this helps the PM.

It needs to be more than very close. In fact, as we know, even if they could get a 25 majority in Parliament, that would only represent the kind of "they didn't really mean it" 52% vote that might get ignored if somebody else fancies it.

Greenmile · Post by **Greenmile** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:27 pm

“These so-called scientists who tell us gravity is a thing used to believe the sun revolves around the earth, so why should I believe them when they tell me it will hurt if I jump off this cliff?”

South West Claret. · Post by **South West Claret.** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:28 pm

Steve-Harpers-perm wrote:Nick Boles has resigned from the Tory Party.

Yes but I bet hes not going to resign as being a Tory MP and stand as an independent.

Typical money grabbing party oink.

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:29 pm

Greenmile wrote:So you only believe people who have never been wrong about anything? Must make it nice and easy to ignore anything that doesn’t match your preconceptions, I suppose.

I think it's reasonable to point to the track record on recent, related matters. Even if we've not "had enough of experts", it's certainly reasonable to consider just how expert they are before relying on their next pronouncements.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:31 pm

The "I've had enough of experts" has got some surprising adherents it has to be said.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:31 pm

Greenmile wrote:So you only believe people who have never been wrong about anything? Must make it nice and easy to ignore anything that doesn’t match your preconceptions, I suppose.

No. I'm afraid you have completely failed to understand. Sorry, but it was pretty simple and if you can't get it, you can't get it.

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:34 pm

Greenmile wrote:“These so-called scientists who tell us gravity is a thing used to believe the sun revolves around the earth, so why should I believe them when they tell me it will hurt if I jump off this cliff?”

It's more like a gravity expert who told you yesterday that gravity would pull your teeth out if you opened your mouth, told you today it would be so strong you wouldn't be able to lift your feet off the ground and is warning you that tomorrow it's going to pull you into the earth's molten core if you don't wear special anti-gravity pants.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:36 pm

thatdberight wrote:It's more like a gravity expert who told you yesterday that gravity would pull your teeth out if you opened your mouth, told you today it would be so strong you wouldn't be able to lift your feet off the ground and is warning you that tomorrow it's going to pull you into the earth's molten core if you don't wear special anti-gravity pants.

It isn't at all.

But hey, if thats the way you want to look at it, then whatever floats your boat.

Past caring to be honest.

We are in this position because we deserve to be, and we can't blame anyone but ourselves.

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:41 pm

Well that went well, not.

And there going to do it all again on Wednesday.

Why, for what. They cannot agree to anything.

Surely it has to be a GE now.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:42 pm

No party comes out of this with any credit it has to be said.

24 Lab MPs voted against Common Market 2.0, 26 Lab MPs against the conformational referendum, only 30 odd Conservatives broke ranks, Lib Dems split, Indy Group not sure yet, and the SNP ranted about independence (again)

DUP no idea, but it probably involves denying dinosaurs.

Something needs to change.

Pstotto · Post by **Pstotto** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:42 pm

You Muppet, Lancaster. If the idiots hadn't spent so much time trying to derail the democratic process and instead prepared with creative ideas on how to rise to the challenge of a new era, we'd have been out of the blocks and racing ahead of the world. Sheep like you led by a sheep like May...

I'm not one of your 'ourselves to blame,' I'm furious at your types.

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:46 pm

thatdberight wrote:I think it's reasonable to point to the track record on recent, related matters. Even if we've not "had enough of experts", it's certainly reasonable to consider just how expert they are before relying on their next pronouncements.

It's funny, but the same people who are extremely suspicious of experts don't seem to bat an eyelid at the chancers and spivs who campaigned to leave.

Maybe if more people scrutinised their track records we'd never have gotten ourselves into this mess in the first place.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:50 pm

Richard Burgon

Labour MP is as thick and as unsuitable for anything as that complete nutter Mark Francois is for the Tories.

A Plague on both your houses!

thatdberight · Post by **thatdberight** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:51 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: But hey, if thats the way you want to look at it, then whatever floats your boat.

Gravity would make your boat sink, not float.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:54 pm

thatdberight wrote:Gravity would make your boat sink, not float.

Not if I get an experts advice on how to build it properly.

**** it, we'll going down the tubes and the zealots are taking over.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:56 pm

People are forgeting that the cabinet did not vote. They are not going to vote for a referendum or single market and would be split on CU.

May's deal still not been beaten at 286 only by brady amendment at about 330.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:59 pm

Greenmile wrote:So you only believe people who have never been wrong about anything? Must make it nice and easy to ignore anything that doesn’t match your preconceptions, I suppose.

Hi Greenmile, just coming on here for a quick catch up - not read posts on earlier pages.

Is your statement logical? (Some) economists have been wrong about (a) UK and the euro; (b) UK and voting to leave brexit. Isn't it, therefore. logical about the ability of economists to also be wrong on the impact of leaving the EU? It's not a case of ignoring anything that doesn't match preconceptions. If you've seen economists be wrong on two previous occasions, it's not a "preconception" to suspect that they might also be wrong on another matter about the UK economy and the EU.

In my experience, it's important to understand the economic models the economists are using. If you understand the models - and the assumptions that they use in those models - then you've a chance of making a judgement on the chances that their latest forecasts may be right.

Anyway, just wanted to share that with you. I've no idea whether it will help the debate.

Mervyn King, previous governor of the Bank of England - and also an economist - was on the radio last week. He wasn't concerned about the effect of the UK leaving the EU with no deal. He said it was important to understand where the EU is and what is happening in EU economies. He said that since the referendum, the UK economy had grown a little more than the German economy. He also said it's not about economies, but rather politics.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:00 pm

Julie Cooper

Yes for both soft brexit options and abstained on referendum and revoke.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:01 pm

thatdberight wrote:Gravity would make your boat sink, not float.

If you think it’s lack of gravity that makes a boat float you definitely need to listen to more experts.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:01 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:No party comes out of this with any credit it has to be said.

24 Lab MPs voted against Common Market 2.0, 26 Lab MPs against the conformational referendum, only 30 odd Conservatives broke ranks, Lib Dems split, Indy Group not sure yet, and the SNP ranted about independence (again)

DUP no idea, but it probably involves denying dinosaurs.

Something needs to change.

The PM can't get a majority for her deal,so parliament takes back control and still we are no further forward.

I'm surprised at the TIG voting against the CU and CM 2.0 options,both would have gained a narrow majority otherwise.

What the hell does the HOC want because ATM we are sleepwalking into a no deal in 11 days,TBH i don't blame the EU for becoming exasperated at the UK.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:03 pm

94 MPs abstained in some of these.

I know its indicative votes, but thats about 1 in 7 who can't be arsed (or more likely, terrified of having to make a decision)

Not good, especially if they won't pass Mays Deal.

martin_p · Post by **martin_p** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:03 pm

Pstotto wrote:You Muppet, Lancaster. If the idiots hadn't spent so much time trying to derail the democratic process and instead prepared with creative ideas on how to rise to the challenge of a new era, we'd have been out of the blocks and racing ahead of the world. Sheep like you led by a sheep like May...

I'm not one of your 'ourselves to blame,' I'm furious at your types.

Whether you like it or not what you’re seeing IS the democratic process.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:05 pm

To stop a "No Deal", the SNP, Lab, Lib Dems, Ind Grp, Plaid Cymru have to vote through Mays Deal.

Will they though?

They are giving 65 ERG Tories all they want at the moment.

I guess we will know more by Wednesday but still this isn't good.

Murger · Post by **Murger** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:10 pm

MPs who abstain on matters like this should have their expenses taken away. That'd get their arse into gear.

bobinho · Post by **bobinho** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:11 pm

How did corbyn vote?

I haven’t looked, but I’ll bet an inch of me dick coopers votes won’t be a million miles away from corbyns votes.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:12 pm

Murger wrote:MPs who abstain on matters like this should have their expenses taken away. That'd get their arse into gear.

Sadly mate, I think you are not getting that these are the best we've got. Most of them are perfectly capable of surviving without their MPs salary.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:12 pm

martin_p wrote:If you think it’s lack of gravity that makes a boat float you definitely need to listen to more experts.

Interesting question, martin.

We have gravity on earth - and thank goodness for that. I understand that it is gravity that keeps the seas in their place. It is also gravity that pulls our boat down into the water. If you build a boat, rather than something that isn't a boat, I'd expect it will float rather than sink.

OK, that's when we have gravity.

What happens when we don't have gravity? Let's imagine our boat has been transported into space - where there is no gravity - and, also no water. Will our boat float in space? Again, I think the answer is yes, if we allow floating to be the absence of sinking. Of course, the floating in space may be a little aimless...

That's where I run out of "expertise." I'm not a rocket scientist.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:18 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:Nice wishful thinking that’d go down like a tonne of S**t, more people need to relax & embrace & plan for a no deal, I’ve got the champagne on ice in such a eventuality as many others will, winning the lottery well before attending a dignitas clinic, so much promise awaits for the working class the more vocal posters argue otherwise for a well known reason.

My wishfull thinking would be we had no referendum at all. My honest thinking is we'll have another referendum. If you engage you're own honest thinking, how else do you see it panning out?

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:20 pm

The EU are piling on the pressure tonight re no deal. Don't think we can assume that they will grant an extension.

These imo are where its going.

1. EU reject extension and HOC forced to revoke on the basis that we will be back. ECJ will try to stop this return in due course. This will mean that any later GE or referendum will result in the EU being the bogey man and deliver a proper brexit eventually.
Or
2. We do get an extension with a fudge of a reason and things are kicked into the long grass until the tories get a new leader. There will be a GE in October. If tories get a working majority a proper Brexit us back on. If labour do it's no brexit.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:23 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:To stop a "No Deal", the SNP, Lab, Lib Dems, Ind Grp, Plaid Cymru have to vote through Mays Deal.

Will they though?

They are giving 65 ERG Tories all they want at the moment.

I guess we will know more by Wednesday but still this isn't good.

Can't see the SNP/Plaid switching,some Labour MP'S in leave leaning seats might have a big decision to make.

There's only 2 valid options i can see now,either the PM'S deal squeaks through,or we revoke and have a long extension.

I have issues with MV4 as well but at least this passing gets us onto the next stage of the process.

The trade talks are going to be fun if the WA causes all this fuss.

Mala591 · Post by **Mala591** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:27 pm

MPs should now have a one-vote-each choice of:

1. No deal Brexit
2. May's deal Brexit
3. May's deal + customs union Brexit

Winner takes all

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:27 pm

I don't believe this.

Brexiteers are going to insist that May demands changes in the backstop. Again.

Reality is just not getting through here.

Its Mays Deal, or revoke, or No deal.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:29 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I don't believe this.

Brexiteers are going to insist that May demands changes in the backstop. Again.

Reality is just not getting through here.

Its Mays Deal, or revoke, or No deal.

You wanted compromise. This is an attempt to get the EU to compromise.

Hope it fails, because May's deal is a rotten deal without the backstop. It's an impossible deal with it.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:33 pm

Corbyn voted for all except revoke i.e. with his whip. So he is happy to leave softly, wants free movement but all subject to a referendum.

Good luck with that jessa in an election.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:33 pm

dsr wrote:You wanted compromise. This is an attempt to get the EU to compromise.

Hope it fails, because May's deal is a rotten deal without the backstop. It's an impossible deal with it.

No it isn't, and again, you are not that thick. You'll be pulling yourself into a frenzy if we leave with no deal. This is exactly what you want, a complete failure of democracy allowing a cadre of less than 10% to seize control of the country.

The most disappointing thing is that you think I'm thick enough not to see right through you, which doesn't reflect well on you.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:36 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I don't believe this.

Brexiteers are going to insist that May demands changes in the backstop. Again.

Reality is just not getting through here.

Its Mays Deal, or revoke, or No deal.

You are almost certainly right but Ireland really don't want no deal. Maybe in private Merkel and Macron could give something?

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:37 pm

So, even with the Tories offering a free vote (apart from a neutral cabinet) no option can get a majority.

That is, apart from the Brady Amendment from January (replace backstop with an altentative and May’s deal will be supported).

It is now clear her path is:

1. Say we are leaving on April 12th come what may.
2. Demand EU replace the backstop by the Council on the 10th.
3. Vote for her deal again on the 11th with her backstop wording.
4. Deal passes (if all goes wrong - no deal, which we would work through)

The trouble is, she hasn’t got the nerve to do it. That has been the problem all along. Negotiating with the EU is all about nerve. She has none. The BBC just showed a Kuenssberg documentary - May was there not even able to look HER in the eye, let alone Juncker.

I’m really impressed with the Steve Baker interview on Newsnight. Tore the interviewer apart, saying he is NOT a hard Brexiteer, he is NOT wanting no deal, he wants a deal he already agreed with the EU when a minister but No. 10 overruled DexEU. Suggested three minor changes then he would vote for it. Clever guy Baker, no silver spoon, comprehensive school then Southampton University aeronautical engineer. Brains and balls. Replied to me on Twitter numerous times with sensible comments in recent years. His enemies try to make him hardline but he isn’t.

Comes to the point you have to pick a couple of MPs who you trust (as much as you can). They don’t have to agree with each other, it just gives you a feel for where you are. Mine are Baker and Gove. Yes, I know. Don’t say it.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:38 pm

summitclaret wrote:You are almost certainly right but Ireland really don't want no deal. Maybe in private Merkel and Macron could give something?

What though?

They can't give in now. Its would destroy the EU project.

The Brexiteers know this. They want No Deal.

"No Deal" hits the SE the least, and the NW and NE the hardest.

We have to avoid it at all costs.

SmudgetheClaret · Post by **SmudgetheClaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:41 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I don't believe this.

Brexiteers are going to insist that May demands changes in the backstop. Again.

Reality is just not getting through here.

Its Mays Deal, or revoke, or No deal.

it's the EU who absolutely don't want no deal whereas there is decent support for it here so surely if TM insists we get a legally binding backstop end date the EU will surely give in when staring a no deal in the face ...

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:43 pm

SmudgetheClaret wrote:it's the EU who absolutely don't want no deal whereas there is decent support for it here so surely if TM insists we get a legally binding backstop end date the EU will surely give in when staring a no deal in the face ...

I admire your confidence.

Course, its not going to happen for the reasons I've just explained above.

Best bet for us is to ask for a long extension for an election (risky for govt) or a 2nd ref (just as risky)

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:44 pm

Anyway, thats it from me!

On holiday if we crash out with a "No Deal", which isn't remotely reassuring!

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:46 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:I don't believe this.

Brexiteers are going to insist that May demands changes in the backstop. Again.

Reality is just not getting through here.

Its Mays Deal, or revoke, or No deal.

Don't know. I think that Grieve has called it correctly.
He says that when some of these options are combined on Wednesday they should pass, so effectively it would be a run-off between
Boles + Kyle
and Clarke + Kyle
Kyle (Confirmatory vote) was the best supported tonight, (Far more support for it than May's deal), and if that's bolted on to either or both of the Customs Union type options then it probably has the best chance. It would certainly have more support than bolting May's deal onto it, and far more support than No deal or revoke.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:48 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:What though?

They can't give in now. Its would destroy the EU project.

The Brexiteers know this. They want No Deal.

"No Deal" hits the SE the least, and the NW and NE the hardest.

We have to avoid it at all costs.

If the "EU project" is so awful that the only way to keep people in it is by being making life hell for those outside - then is it a project worth having? Why not wave the flag for the EU project by saying how good it is? If they have to try and make the UK occupy the eighth circle of hell, it must be because they accept they're in the seventh.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:50 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Don't know. I think that Grieve has called it correctly.
He says that when some of these options are combined on Wednesday they should pass, so effectively it would be a run-off between
Boles + Kyle
and Clarke + Kyle
Kyle (Confirmatory vote) was the best supported tonight, (Far more support for it than May's deal), and if that's bolted on to either or both of the Customs Union type options then it probably has the best chance. It would certainly have more support than bolting May's deal onto it, and far more support than No deal or revoke.

Would the EU grant an extension for a second referendum between an as-yet-unagreed alternative deal, or no deal? Wouldn't they just say "sling your hook now"?

bobinho · Post by **bobinho** » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:58 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:So, even with the Tories offering a free vote (apart from a neutral cabinet) no option can get a majority.

That is, apart from the Brady Amendment from January (replace backstop with an altentative and May’s deal will be supported).

It is now clear her path is:

1. Say we are leaving on April 12th come what may.
2. Demand EU replace the backstop by the Council on the 10th.
3. Vote for her deal again on the 11th with her backstop wording.
4. Deal passes (if all goes wrong - no deal, which we would work through)

The trouble is, she hasn’t got the nerve to do it. That has been the problem all along. Negotiating with the EU is all about nerve. She has none. The BBC just showed a Kuenssberg documentary - May was there not even able to look HER in the eye, let alone Juncker.

I’m really impressed with the Steve Baker interview on Newsnight. Tore the interviewer apart, saying he is NOT a hard Brexiteer, he is NOT wanting no deal, he wants a deal he already agreed with the EU when a minister but No. 10 overruled DexEU. Suggested three minor changes then he would vote for it. Clever guy Baker, no silver spoon, comprehensive school then Southampton University aeronautical engineer. Brains and balls. Replied to me on Twitter numerous times with sensible comments in recent years. His enemies try to make him hardline but he isn’t.

Comes to the point you have to pick a couple of MPs who you trust (as much as you can). They don’t have to agree with each other, it just gives you a feel for where you are. Mine are Baker and Gove. Yes, I know. Don’t say it.

You were doing sooooo well. Then almost at the end you mentioned the “G” word in the same paragraph as the word “trust”. That equates to suggesting labour could form a government, with Diane Abbott as chancellor.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:01 am

bobinho wrote:You were doing sooooo well. Then almost at the end you mentioned the “G” word in the same paragraph as the word “trust”. That equates to suggesting labour could form a government, with Diane Abbott as chancellor.

I can’t help it. I do trust him. For an MP (important distinction). I see him as idealistic (but often strategically correct) but not untrustworthy. The Boris thing was unfortunate. I suspect Boris shot his bolt behind the scenes (so to speak).

bobinho · Post by **bobinho** » Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:18 am

Lancasterclaret wrote:I don't believe this.

Brexiteers are going to insist that May demands changes in the backstop. Again.

Reality is just not getting through here.

Its Mays Deal, or revoke, or No deal.

No deal.

Can we get on with it now please?

No deal.

Really. NO DEAL. If the EU are happy to sign a deal, we have made a weapons grade mistake. The EU know that the rest of their member states, and the big boys in particular (because the club is ram jammed with leeches that the big boys , including us subsidise) will have to make up the shortfall when we stop the funds we supply. They don’t want that. What better bargaining chip than that!? If they agree a deal, it’s good for them, and them alone. They aren’t interested in us or our future, just their own club.

No deal is bad right? ********. No deal is THE chip. Europe’s big hitters want to play here. When their exports to the UK look like diminishing due to the tariffs imposed, they will get involved just like UK businesses will get involved when it costs them. Business runs countries, NOT politicians. Money talks. Merit walks.

The delays are a plan to halt brexit entirely. The longer it goes on, The more fed up people will be. Force another referendum (which will probably end up ‘remain’ due to people being sick to the back teeth of it all), or revoke is the real plan here. No one is interested in “the backstop” or any other obstacle to the final outcome. Keep it going is the plan. **** off the people. Then when they have had enough, and apathy rules more than it already does, just mug everyone off and say it was too difficult. .

Blackrod · Post by **Blackrod** » Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:25 am

Fair points above. Seems to be all about what is good for the European Gravy Train and shows how embedded we are in it. One thing is for sure it is a shambles and politicians on both sides have not endeared themselves to the voting public.