Russia Invades

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1 ... 5611779076

ISW calling it

Well, saying that the original Russian war aims have failed, which is pretty huge

[Lancasterclaret]

I do but only one side is threatening it - we offer nothing back at all. That's the point.

Nothing back at all?

Come off it Vegas, the last three weeks have seen the strongest Western allied response to anything since WWII

[TsarBomba]

https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1 ... 5611779076

ISW calling it

Well, saying that the original Russian war aims have failed, which is pretty huge

Huge news.

It’ll be very interesting to see if/how the war pivots from here.

Also telling that today sees the first documented footage of thermobaric weapons being deployed by Russia.

[TsarBomba]

https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1 ... 5611779076

ISW calling it

Well, saying that the original Russian war aims have failed, which is pretty huge

I have seen mention of two huge columns of armour being sighted near Gomel, moving south towards the border with Ukraine.

Perhaps the pivot is the use of hypersonic/thermobaric weapons and Belarus joining the conflict.

[Lancasterclaret]

I have seen mention of two huge columns of armour being sighted near Gomel, moving south towards the border with Ukraine.

Perhaps the pivot is the use of hypersonic/thermobaric weapons and Belarus joining the conflict.

The hypersonic missiles won't make a difference - cruise missiles are hard to stop anyway, certainly with the stuff that Ukraine has, and they have to be Russia weapon v NATO, and how many can they realistically have?

Two huge columns of armor - coming through Belarus - has all the hall marks of yet another stalled Russian column (certainly not a war changing one)

And I think Russia admitted using thermobaric missiles in the first week of the war

I mean, to be honest, those interactive maps that show the movement of Russian forces during the war haven't really moved the past two weeks, and it looks like Russia is still trying to do far too much without the forces or the logistics to do it.

I don't see Belarus entering the war now. They have everything to lose and nothing to gain

[TsarBomba]

The hypersonic missiles won't make a difference - cruise missiles are hard to stop anyway, certainly with the stuff that Ukraine has, and they have to be Russia weapon v NATO, and how many can they realistically have?

Two huge columns of armor - coming through Belarus - has all the hall marks of yet another stalled Russian column (certainly not a war changing one)

And I think Russia admitted using thermobaric missiles in the first week of the war

I mean, to be honest, those interactive maps that show the movement of Russian forces during the war haven't really moved the past two weeks, and it looks like Russia is still trying to do far too much without the forces or the logistics to do it.

I don't see Belarus entering the war now. They have everything to lose and nothing to gain

Also quite a lot of activity reported around Brest, with (unsubstantiated) rumours that there may be some sort of drive to cut off Western Ukraine and stop the flow of supplies.

Difficult to see how the Russians are capable of opening up another front bearing in mind the challenges they already have.

Certainly one to keep an eye on.

And personally, I think Lukashenko is too far down the road to do any sort of u-turn now. He’s thrown his lot in with Russia, by allowing their forces to launch the invasion and missiles from Belarusian territory. Lukashenko’s fate is tied up with that of Putins. If Putin wants Belarus to commit troops, I can’t see Lukashenko saying no, can you?

[Vegas Claret]

...

[Vegas Claret]

my mate Tyler calling bull crap
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... in-ukraine

[Lancasterclaret]

Also quite a lot of activity reported around Brest, with (unsubstantiated) rumours that there may be some sort of drive to cut off Western Ukraine and stop the flow of supplies.

Difficult to see how the Russians are capable of opening up another front bearing in mind the challenges they already have.

Certainly one to keep an eye on.

And personally, I think Lukashenko is too far down the road to do any sort of u-turn now. He’s thrown his lot in with Russia, by allowing their forces to launch the invasion and missiles from Belarusian territory. Lukashenko’s fate is tied up with that of Putins. If Putin wants Belarus to commit troops, I can’t see Lukashenko saying no, can you?

I don't see how having more units with poor morale, poor training and poor logistics helps Russia at this stage

[Lancasterclaret]

I'm talking specifically in terms of nuclear threat we've offered nothing - that's all I'm talking about (I assumed that's what you meant by elephant in the room?), so far we've given him no deterrent to him continuing his war - in fact we've done completely the opposite. Sanctions are a long ball game (and welcome obviously)

We've told him where the red line is

We can't do more than that

[Vegas Claret]

We've told him where the red line is

We can't do more than that

of course we can, Biden saying Putin had free reign to do whatever he wanted to do in Ukraine without fear of being met with a forceful response was about as amateurish as you could possibly get - the absolute definition of a badly placed red line !

[Vegas Claret]

MOD update

[Lancasterclaret]

of course we can, Biden saying Putin had free reign to do whatever he wanted to do in Ukraine without fear of being met with a forceful response was about as amateurish as you could possibly get - the absolute definition of a badly placed red line !

I don't think it is

And he can do what he wants in Ukraine as much as he wants, but he'll pay a very heavy price for it

Essentially we are lucky that an experienced cold war hand is in charge. He's not going to be flustered by the Russians being Russians, he's seen all this before.

[Vegas Claret]

And he can do what he wants in Ukraine as much as he wants, but he'll pay a very heavy price for it

Nail on the head (and that's the entire issue), we are letting him massacre an entire nation because their name isn't on a piece of paper. Ukrainian's will pay the biggest price of all not Russia

[bfcjg]

Russian Orthodox church starting to split ranks with the leader who's Putin's buddy.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/ ... esy-a76922

[Taffy on the wing]

NY Times reporting suggests Russia had advanced quite a lot today!

I think following all this is starting to get me down......it's a feeling of helplessness.

A photo of Putin's head on a metal spike would cheer me up no end.

[Vegas Claret]

...

[mkmel]

Idiotic comparison made by Johnson

BBC News - Ukraine war: Boris Johnson sparks fury after comparison to Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60809454

[Vegas Claret]

Idiotic comparison made by Johnson

BBC News - Ukraine war: Boris Johnson sparks fury after comparison to Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60809454

I saw that earlier, astonishing

[Colburn_Claret]

I'm talking specifically in terms of nuclear threat we've offered nothing - that's all I'm talking about (I assumed that's what you meant by elephant in the room?), so far we've given him no deterrent to him continuing his war - in fact we've done completely the opposite. Sanctions are a long ball game (and welcome obviously)

It might be possible to threaten a sane man with carnage of a nuclear war, but Putin......Added to which he would just use any threat from NATO as proof positive, that he was right about the threat to Russia all along. Our best bet is still to arm the Ukrainians as quickly as we can, with the best technology we can, to prolong this sad state of affairs, and pray the Russian people wake up and remover Putin themselves.

[Colburn_Claret]

Also quite a lot of activity reported around Brest, with (unsubstantiated) rumours that there may be some sort of drive to cut off Western Ukraine and stop the flow of supplies.

Difficult to see how the Russians are capable of opening up another front bearing in mind the challenges they already have.

Certainly one to keep an eye on.

And personally, I think Lukashenko is too far down the road to do any sort of u-turn now. He’s thrown his lot in with Russia, by allowing their forces to launch the invasion and missiles from Belarusian territory. Lukashenko’s fate is tied up with that of Putins. If Putin wants Belarus to commit troops, I can’t see Lukashenko saying no, can you?

There may be slightly more chance of Belarusian soldiers saying no, than Russian. The Belarusians are hopefully better informed than Russians, if they can see the issues the Russians have faced, in an illegal war against people they consider to be neighbours and fellow slavs, they might just down tools.
Wishful thinking maybe, but wouldn't it be nice.

[Lancasterclaret]

Russia has a lot of T-72s MBT

Problem is, they can be taken out by 30 mm cannon fire from a APC, which I think is safe to say makes it practically useless and a very serious design flaw

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505464350164848643

[Colburn_Claret]

Idiotic comparison made by Johnson

BBC News - Ukraine war: Boris Johnson sparks fury after comparison to Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60809454

That's typical Boris, he isn't a diplomat, and never will be, and as daft a comparison that it is, I fail to see why people get upset by it. Just laugh at him

MODERATOR - I spoke to a couple of posters about this and we decided to avoid the debate it would draw - but I’m going to leave this because it is VERY much on topic. However, I ask posters to refrain from further replies from this point, please. (any further comment will be deleted without explanation - it is what it is)

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Reports coming through that a senior Russian naval officer has been shot/killed.
Interestingly he's Ukrainian born, but in 93 joined the Russian navy instead of Ukrainian.

[Hipper]

It never is, but unlike anything we’ve seen in years, this conflict is the result of little more than Putin’s paranoia - most experts agree on this at least.

How we got here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60767454

[dermotdermot]

It might be possible to threaten a sane man with carnage of a nuclear war, but Putin......Added to which he would just use any threat from NATO as proof positive, that he was right about the threat to Russia all along. Our best bet is still to arm the Ukrainians as quickly as we can, with the best technology we can, to prolong this sad state of affairs, and pray the Russian people wake up and remover Putin themselves.

Fat chance of that. Russians obviously have an extremely over inflated idea of their own importance looking at the ridiculous spectacle of that rally the other day.

[box_of_frogs]

Russia has a lot of T-72s MBT

Problem is, they can be taken out by 30 mm cannon fire from a APC, which I think is safe to say makes it practically useless and a very serious design flaw

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505464350164848643

Given that the T72s turret doesn’t move in order to engage the APC actually firing, I’d wage some money in it already being disabled.

[elwaclaret]

Yeh I get you about Putin 100%, but at some point you have to take things at face value and get rid of the lack of trust from both side and try to move forward.

I disagree about the tech side of things I served through the 90s and the threat from Russia was never about technologically advanced hardware it was about sheer volume of the hardware and manpower they had. It seems from the outside looking in they have steeped away from having mass and moved towards tech which doesn’t currently look overly great.

Given what I said earlier here is a sobering and totally devastating update I saw today from the guy I served with who is fighting in Ukraine.

“grim day this afternoon, had to put in an emergency casevac for 12 civilians trying to escape from the south 9 KIlled, 3 seriously wounded. Who the **** does this, 5 children in the 9 killed, I'm raging.”

Disgusting

No argument at all from me, but without having looked closely at the end of the Cold War (nay as part of a general understanding of how things developed - I specialised in South East Asia (mainly Truman/Eisenhower/JFK/LBJ and some Nixon) so I am far from a Russia-file. I could tell you in-depth (another time) of how America even managed to alienate both Tory and Labour Governments, then. My view was caution it’s Putin was advisable - Russia had gone from Gorbachev’s glasnost to Yeltsin’s alcohol reign and a massive leap in corruption that helped Putin take power. I think this caution was justified (if disappointing) and always hoped Putin would use his power to sort Russia, instead he soon embraced the power it gave him and never really tried to look west other than for gain.

[Mala591]

Putin has decided that he’s going to win this illegal occupation of an independent democratic country whatever the cost to Ukraine or to Russia.

As I said right at the beginning, the only way to stop him is for Ukraine to immediately join NATO and then for NATO to give Russia three weeks to leave Ukraine or be forcibly removed.

Putin and Russia won’t stop until every Ukrainian city has been surrounded and gradually destroyed.

We either go in or let them die, that’s the stark choice facing the politicians of Europe and the U.S.

[Billy Balfour]

If Nato started a ground war, or indeed an air war, it would quickly descend into nuclear conflict. We wouldn't have to worry about fighting any more wars, that's for sure.

[Lancasterclaret]

Would never happen, you realise Russia aren't the only ones with nuclear power right? and they are significantly outnumbered.

I've unmuted this just to tell you that both sides have enough nukes to wipe out civilisation

You have to factor that into every decision you make, whether you want to or not

[Lancasterclaret]

Given that the T72s turret doesn’t move in order to engage the APC actually firing, I’d wage some money in it already being disabled.

Think the tank reversed after the first hit, and then was taken out by the second volley

Either way, still a very serious decision flaw

[elwaclaret]

If Nato started a ground war, or indeed an air war, it would quickly descend into nuclear conflict. We wouldn't have to worry about fighting any more wars, that's for sure.

That is debatable. There have been a few close calls between Russia and America - but lets not forget America and Russia were fighting by proxy throughout the Cold War- In SE Asia, Central and South America (mainly). The West is in effect employing an extreme version of Cold War tactics - Ukraine sadly has become the West’s ‘proxy’ - I believe the West will be looking to create counter-insurgencies from within Russia (the Cossacks would historically be among those) but obviously we wont hear anything about that. Nuclear war is not (traditionally) a fall back position (but the threat of it, certainly is). Therefore Nuclear war is not an inevitable result, but is certainly a highest stakes gamble there is.

[elwaclaret]

Would never happen, you realise Russia aren't the only ones with nuclear power right? and they are significantly outnumbered.

Bravado is great but just to add some perspective - Nuclear War would mean London and Manchester would be first strikes, here in East Lancashire there would be little left and few alive to resist after such an attack

[elwaclaret]

You have to admire the people of Kherson - they are out on the streets protesting (God bless them). NEXTA

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 75779?s=21

[KRBFC]

Bravado is great but just to add some perspective - Nuclear War would mean London and Manchester would be first strikes, here in East Lancashire there would be little left and few alive to resist after such an attack

Let's aim the nukes at Putin's house and play poker with the magic red button.

[bfcjg]

I don't want my children and grandchildren wiping out or becoming seriously ill because we gambled on Putin not being mad enough to order a strike, likewise the chain of command in Russia could be just as insane, my emotion will be reflected by the Russian people, they just cannot express it on forums like we can. Our tactics have to be watch Russia slowly die due to sanctions and the Ukraine army backed by no doubt Western mercenaries armed to the teeth by us destroy the Russian army bit by bit, civilian casualties are dreadful and a lot are getting out but if it became nuclear what is happening now in Ukraine is a tea party.
Some of the excellent links put on here by Lancasterclaret, elwaclaret and others have highlighted the extreme difficulty for occupying armies trying to contain a well organised and determined defence and the ratio of soldiers required would mean Putin would be handing out guns to junior school children, rather like his role model Hitler did.

[elwaclaret]

Let's aim the nukes at Putin's house and play poker with the magic red button.

The button is pressed by four men spread across Russia. Putin gives the order others have to agree to fire - the others are FAR more likely to agree if they feel NATO is about to bomb Russia.

[elwaclaret]

It's never going to happen, It's not like in the cartoons where a button is pressed and the world ends. I'm actually amazed this amateur attempt at intimidation by nuclear threat is working, maybe we should be the ones making the nuclear threats instead, 1 country v 30+, he's severely out numbered and out gunned in this potential war yet has the west treading on egg shells and scared shitless to act.

Maybe you should stress what level of Nuclear War you mean. Nuclear weapons can be anything from tank busters to Warheads… no one walks away from Warheads.

[Billy Balfour]

Thing is, we never went toe-to-toe with 'Russia' during the Cold War because the risk was too great. Both sides had far more sense, but now we have a madman, and he's quite capable of starting a nuclear war. This is why we haven't implemented a 'no-fly zone'. We are too sensible to risk an all out conflict.

My point is basically to those who are saying we should send armed forces into Ukraine. I, for one, don't have a death-wish, but I think that Putin does. Let's face it, he doesn't look in good shape, and he might not have long left. This might be why he invaded Ukraine. He wants to go down in the Russian history books as a hero, like Catherine/Peter the Great. If we gave him the opportunity, then I bet he'd be up for Gotterdammerung, just like that other nutter back in 1945, but this time, with nukes.

[KRBFC]

The US needs a night time raid of Putin's mansion, Saddam Hussein style.

MODERTOR - Please be careful to keep points ‘source-able’ where possible, as quite frankly this comparison is nonsensical.

[elwaclaret]

Interesting piece from Sergej Sumlenny - about Russian class system and their view of Ukrainians.

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/150 ... 37569?s=21

[Billy Balfour]

I've unmuted this

I bet you now wish you hadn't.

[elwaclaret]

Caddick-Adams - Russian ambassador to Bosnia, “How do you know we don’t have plans for Croatia, Hungary and Poland?”

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 29863?s=21

[elwaclaret]

ROB LEE - Ukrainian attack on Russian convoy.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1505 ... 25664?s=21

[elwaclaret]

We can identify War Crimes like never before on security cameras and mobile phone footage - prosecutions should be easiest ever - Stuart Steven’s (advisor to 5 Republican campaigns).

https://twitter.com/stuartpstevens/stat ... 52165?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Pope Francis - ‘slaughters and atrocities’ are committed daily in Ukraine. REUTERS

https://twitter.com/reutersuk/status/15 ... 66145?s=21

[NewClaret]

ROB LEE - Ukrainian attack on Russian convoy.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1505 ... 25664?s=21

That was very pleasing to see. Particularly because it seems to take out a big line of the column. I’ve only dream drone strikes on handfuls of vehicles previously. I’d been wondering why they hadn’t been deploying mines (or whatever) and it looks like they have.

Any idea what the gunfire is after? Ukrainian troops firing while the dust settles or Russia opening fire?

[elwaclaret]

Yemen Houthis attack Saudi refinery - output hit. REUTERS

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1505 ... 24612?s=21

[elwaclaret]

That was very pleasing to see. Particularly because it seems to take out a big line of the column. I’ve only dream drone strikes on handfuls of vehicles previously. I’d been wondering why they hadn’t been deploying mines (or whatever) and it looks like they have.

Any idea what the gunfire is after? Ukrainian troops firing while the dust settles or Russia opening fire?

No more than you on this one, I’m afraid.