Russia Invades

[Hipper]

1. Aim to cut off Russian oil from Europe
2. UK needs Iranian oil
3. UK pays off long standing £300 million debt to Iran
4. Nazinin released
5. UK buys Iranian oil

Am I being too cynical?

I think it's not being cynical but practical.

Probably unconnected.

Russia is not going to turn off the oil.

It needs the money to fund the war.

You are right from the Russian position but the point is this will give us the choice to cut off the Russian oil. It will put us in control.

[bfcjg]

If they haven’t turned at the barbarity to date, I can’t see what would.

I think there is more resistance then we know about I'm still mightily impressed and humbled by the bravery of the mothers who protested.

[Colburn_Claret]

I think there is more resistance then we know about I'm still mightily impressed and humbled by the bravery of the mothers who protested.

I often try to put myself in the shoes of others before making judgement, but it's very difficult to put oneself in the shoes of the average Russian. To live with those levels of depression, for generations, you can't compare them to anyone we know. All the more credit to those who do protest, but they need to speak to neighbours, friends, work mates. Their greatest safety would come in numbers, the more protestors the safer they are. The more protestors, the more confident Putins potential nemesis will grow.

[Mala591]

I often try to put myself in the shoes of others before making judgement, but it's very difficult to put oneself in the shoes of the average Russian. To live with those levels of depression, for generations, you can't compare them to anyone we know. All the more credit to those who do protest, but they need to speak to neighbours, friends, work mates. Their greatest safety would come in numbers, the more protestors the safer they are. The more protestors, the more confident Putins potential nemesis will grow.

I agree, hundreds of thousands (millions would be better) of brave and peaceful protesters need to bring Moscow to a complete standstill for several days/weeks. Their goal must be a totally free and democratic Russia. Ironically, as the country becomes more difficult to manage, now is probably the best chance of achieving change.

Imo it’s the only way that Putin will be removed.

[elwaclaret]

I was talking to a friend last night (long time interest in Russian Armour - and wargaming) who pointed out to me - the separatists were supposed to guide the best Russian troops into the areas of resistance - but in Ukraine there simply not enough of them so Russia set off like a disoriented Bear. Now the Syrians will be used as grunts - pushing on getting shot up and sending back coordinates for missile strikes or elite hit squads to deal with the toughest resistance. It sounded like a reasonable synopses to me; making it a recruitment built on desperation.

[elwaclaret]

Shock, horror a UN delegation has reported back that there is no substance to the Russian claim America and Ukraine were developing biological warfare facilities in Ukraine. Who would have thought it, the Kremlin telling porkies? NEXTA REPORT:

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 58720?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Russian Cosmonauts who have just arrived on the International Space Station chose to wear uniforms of Bright Yellow with a definite accent of blue…

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 67877?s=21

[elwaclaret]

THE ECONOMIST looks at the massive miscalculation of Putin and the increased danger such catastrophic failure brings.

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status ... 15778?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Google fast internet cables reach Togo in their first step to connecting Africa to the latest high speed technology. While this is connected to a long term strategy to turn to Africa’s largely untapped resources (many food producers are looking to Africa as a major potential source for development (beef farms for example are expecting to supplement the traditional supplies from Argentina, and much work already done around Rwanda etc.). It also arrives as South Africa and other regions have shown they are behind the curve on condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1505 ... 67523?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Russians fleeing Putin’s atrocities are finding it far more difficult to cross into America than their Ukrainian neighbours who are waved through at the Mexican border. REUTERS

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1505 ... 46661?s=21

[JarrowClaret]

Some good analysis here along the lines of a lot we have already read.

https://twitter.com/jominiw/status/1505 ... 27393?s=21

I will add Ukraine are definately winning the International information War but I don’t think Putin cares about that he is winning the internal information war which is all he cares about. I am also a little sceptical of all the atrocities linked to the Russians not saying they aren’t doing some maybe all but I am concerned some are stunts or worse as we have seen in the Middle East fairly often.

[elwaclaret]

UN confirms Belarus used sexual violence of detainees (both men and women) against anti Government protestors in 2020.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 10240?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Some good analysis here along the lines of a lot we have already read.

https://twitter.com/jominiw/status/1505 ... 27393?s=21

I will add Ukraine are definately winning the International information War but I don’t think Putin cares about that he is winning the internal information war which is all he cares about. I am also a little sceptical of all the atrocities linked to the Russians not saying they aren’t doing some maybe all but I am concerned some are stunts or worse as we have seen in the Middle East fairly often.

Stunts? I doubt it - During the Syrian conflict Russia was given the co-ordinates of Civilian safe places - hospitals, schools, designated emergency food depots etc. the Russians bombed them all. Russia’s tactic of breaking resistance hearts until they are unwilling to resist seems to be at play again in Ukraine.

[elwaclaret]

THE ECONOMIST - Former Political prisoner Mikhail Khordorkovsky believes Western leaders explaining their actions as ‘defesive’ will only be received as weakness by Putin a bully who recognises and respects nothing but raw power as strength.

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status ... 05827?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Russia is shipping the wounded to Belarus at night to avoid their own journalists seeing the numbers pouring out of the conflict due to the strength of opposition. ELINT NEWS retweet.

https://twitter.com/asluhn/status/15051 ... 30528?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Another Russian unit destroyed near Kyiv (precise location not revealed, but new ‘kills’) ELINT NEWS RETWEET

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... 66919?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Biden reveals he again warned Chinese leader Jinping of the consequences of supplying Russia and illicited agreement that a diplomatic locution was needed. REUTERS

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1505 ... 36452?s=21

[JarrowClaret]

Stunts? I doubt it - During the Syrian conflict Russia was given the co-ordinates of Civilian safe places - hospitals, schools, designated emergency food depots etc. the Russians bombed them all. Russia’s tactic of breaking resistance hearts until they are unwilling to resist seems to be at play again in Ukraine.

I don’t doubt that Elwa at times of war the line between right and wrong gets blurred and when that happens there is always a human cost normally the innocents children etc is all I am saying. We are being fed information and it is information someone else wants us to see. as I said I have no doubt the Russians are doing most of what is being said maybe even all of it but it wouldn’t surprise also if some of it wasn’t as black and white as it is being presented.

[elwaclaret]

Belarussian Embassy evacuates Ukraine NEXTA

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 71812?s=21

[GodIsADeeJay81]

THE ECONOMIST - Former Political prisoner Mikhail Khordorkovsky believes Western leaders explaining their actions as ‘defesive’ will only be received as weakness by Putin a bully who recognises and respects nothing but raw power as strength.

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status ... 05827?s=21

Yet if the West went on the offensive he'd use that to justify his invasion...

Rock and a hard place there for the west

[elwaclaret]

I don’t doubt that Elwa at times of war the line between right and wrong gets blurred and when that happens there is always a human cost normally the innocents children etc is all I am saying. We are being fed information and it is information someone else wants us to see. as I said I have no doubt the Russians are doing most of what is being said maybe even all of it but it wouldn’t surprise also if some of it wasn’t as black and white as it is being presented.

It never is, but unlike anything we’ve seen in years, this conflict is the result of little more than Putin’s paranoia - most experts agree on this at least.

[elwaclaret]

ANDREW NEIL: Russian soldiers are arriving in Belarus with some horrific injuries. Many are dying due to gangrene infractions resulting from lack of support care.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/15052 ... 51719?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

Yet if the West went on the offensive he'd use that to justify his invasion...

Rock and a hard place there for the west

he's already invaded, be hard to swing that as a justification to anyone other than himself

[elwaclaret]

he's already invaded, be hard to swing that as a justification to anyone other than himself

And to his own people would still use it as I told you so - we’ve made them show their true intention…

[Vegas Claret]

And to his own people would still use it as I told you so - we’ve made them show their true intention…

and none of that justifies us seeing him destroy a country, it's people and his further march west. The West is showing incredible weakness, nothing I've read or seen will convince me otherwise. Biden with his "we won't have a war in Ukraine" was a green light for Putin to murder thousands of people. I'm not ok with that and never will be.

[TsarBomba]

what's happened to Tsar Bomba ? Not seen him on here this week

Hello Vegas!

Still here following the thread, just been a very busy few weeks at my end.

Cracking effort by everyone to stay abreast of what is going on!

[Vegas Claret]

Hello Vegas!

Still here following the thread, just been a very busy few weeks at my end.

Cracking effort by everyone to stay abreast of what is going on!

good stuff

[elwaclaret]

ELINT NEWS (retweet): Drone footage of more Russian destroyed/abandoned armour

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1505 ... 74474?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Ukrainian Tochka-U Ballistic missiles, still in shoot and scoot operations, here are two ELINT retweet

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1505 ... 74474?s=21

[elwaclaret]

BBC News reporting Russian claims to have fired the first hypersonic Kinzhal Missile in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1505 ... 02763?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/SangerNYT/status/15 ... 3056380928

US suggesting to Turkey that if it gives Ukraine its S-400 SAM systems, they can resume deliveries of F-35s

Interesting

[Vegas Claret]

https://twitter.com/SangerNYT/status/15 ... 3056380928

US suggesting to Turkey that if it gives Ukraine its S-400 SAM systems, they can resume deliveries of F-35s

Interesting

the world and it's alliances are changing at a pace towards the "lesser of 100 evils" which puts China in a difficult position about who they back. Given how quickly the West has come together they must be nervous right about now

[NewClaret]

the world and it's alliances are changing at a pace towards the "lesser of 100 evils" which puts China in a difficult position about who they back. Given how quickly the West has come together they must be nervous right about now

To be honest, they’d be daft to back Putin. It’s a case of alienating him or a much, much larger, economically active/diverse, influential part of the world. But if they do, so be it, let’s just cut them off too.

I’ve long thought we should be a) accelerating our move to renewable energy/achieving energy independence, and b) rebuilding our manufacturing capabilities such that we’re self-sufficient. Successive Governments have been negligent in not doing much on either front, in my opinion. If this accelerates that process and the West let Russia sit on their gas & oil, and China close all their factories, it would give this awful cloud a silver lining.

[bfcjg]

ANDREW NEIL: Russian soldiers are arriving in Belarus with some horrific injuries. Many are dying due to gangrene infractions resulting from lack of support care.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/15052 ... 51719?s=21

Putin and his cronies can't keep a lid on all this bad news, it must be simmering under the surface in Moscow. The idiots in Syria who are coming to fight must be aware as well they will be cannon fodder and for what ?

[NewClaret]

Russian Cosmonauts who have just arrived on the International Space Station chose to wear uniforms of Bright Yellow with a definite accent of blue…

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 67877?s=21

Surely this is massively embarrassing for Putin after his big party yesterday? And symbolic to Russians! Let’s hope the combination of things like this and the general deaths build pressure on Putin from his own military.

[JarrowClaret]

It never is, but unlike anything we’ve seen in years, this conflict is the result of little more than Putin’s paranoia - most experts agree on this at least.

Agreed there is huge amounts of paranoia Putins mostly but there is also some in our side as well. I read recently that Putin asked the US Clinton I think if Russia could join NATO in the early days of his tenure he got a blank response.

[elwaclaret]

Agreed there is huge amounts of paranoia Putins mostly but there is also some in our side as well. I read recently that Putin asked the US Clinton I think if Russia could join NATO in the early days of his tenure he got a blank response.

I think it was the kind of response I would give too to a former KGB Boss with no track record and tech light years away from NATO. Remember part of the reason Russia was not taken seriously is we’d lived under the illusion Russia was far far in advance of where they had reached in reality, pretty much all through the Cold War. The West’s intelligence had massively over-predicted Russian capability.

[elwaclaret]

Livi’s council put a symbolic display of 109 empty prams lined up on tweets today… one for each child the Russians have killed since the start of the war BBC

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/150 ... 06243?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

this is the point where I'd say all bets are off
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/15 ... 0N_0yiExQQ

[elwaclaret]

Signs that Belarus would struggle if the order came from Putin to attack. Railway workers have been deliberately been missing connections to prevent sending provisions into Ukraine. The head of railways instead of reprimanding them thanked his Belarussian heroes! (Phillips OBrian retweet)

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 84480?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Extremely rare for Professor Suzannah Lipscomb to tweet anything political, she clearly thinks people need to know - Boris Johnson was at a Conservative fundraiser with a Russian donor the same night Russia had attacked Ukraine. Story by The TIMES

https://twitter.com/dalrymplewill/statu ... 75429?s=21

[elwaclaret]

At least 50 bodies have been recovered from the 200 on site of the military training base in Nikolaev, targeted by Russia on Friday. NEXTA

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 26535?s=21

[bfcjg]

this is the point where I'd say all bets are off
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/15 ... 0N_0yiExQQ

Don't want NATO to get involved as that could lead to WW3 but how long can the west stand by and watch genocide in action.

[elwaclaret]

Pope Francis visits 19 Ukrainian children recovering in the Vatican’s hospital

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 12485?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

Need it to be confirmed, but Ukrainian railways chairman has claimed that Belorussian railway workers have sabotaged the railways leading to Ukraine in their country

That would be the main supply line for the already under supplied Russian troops North and North West of Kyi'v

Plus their is footage of Ukrainian troops blowing up a bridge on a railway line near Kharki'v, which again, will affect supplies into a sector where the Russians are really struggling with supply issues already

Course, the railway lines on the Ukrainian side are absolutely vital for the resupply and quick troop movements and are probably very vulnerable at the bridges and crossing points the further east you go

Be interesting to see if the Russians target them soon

[Lancasterclaret]

Don't want NATO to get involved as that could lead to WW3 but how long can the west stand by and watch genocide in action.

As long as it takes for this war to end

All we can do is supply Ukraine with the weaponry it needs, and in enough quantity so that they don't run out, while making sure that the NATO eastern border is as strong as it can be so Russia doesn't do anything dafter than it has already

Bundeswehr Patriots moving up to the Slovakian border being a case in point

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1505265486724059140

[Vegas Claret]

As long as it takes for this war to end

All we can do is supply Ukraine with the weaponry it needs, and in enough quantity so that they don't run out, while making sure that the NATO eastern border is as strong as it can be so Russia doesn't do anything dafter than it has already

Bundeswehr Patriots moving up to the Slovakian border being a case in point

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1505265486724059140

at the cost of complete obliteration to an entire country - I can't get my head around that and the lack of action and never will. If Putin drops a rocket in Zurich it wouldn't even be a "NATO" conversation and I'm not a one rule for one and one rule for another person. The whole thing is immoral

[bfcjg]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/tensions-rise ... 35139.html
Germany talking the talk only.

[Lancasterclaret]

at the cost of complete obliteration to an entire country - I can't get my head around that and the lack of action and never will. If Putin drops a rocket in Zurich it wouldn't even be a "NATO" conversation and I'm not a one rule for one and one rule for another person. The whole thing is immoral

Yes, 100% couldn't agree with you more

But you know as well as I do the elephant in the room sadly

[JarrowClaret]

I think it was the kind of response I would give too to a former KGB Boss with no track record and tech light years away from NATO. Remember part of the reason Russia was not taken seriously is we’d lived under the illusion Russia was far far in advance of where they had reached in reality, pretty much all through the Cold War. The West’s intelligence had massively over-predicted Russian capability.

Yeh I get you about Putin 100%, but at some point you have to take things at face value and get rid of the lack of trust from both side and try to move forward.

I disagree about the tech side of things I served through the 90s and the threat from Russia was never about technologically advanced hardware it was about sheer volume of the hardware and manpower they had. It seems from the outside looking in they have steeped away from having mass and moved towards tech which doesn’t currently look overly great.

Given what I said earlier here is a sobering and totally devastating update I saw today from the guy I served with who is fighting in Ukraine.

“grim day this afternoon, had to put in an emergency casevac for 12 civilians trying to escape from the south 9 KIlled, 3 seriously wounded. Who the **** does this, 5 children in the 9 killed, I'm raging.”

Disgusting