Covid-19

[quoonbeatz]

That's exactly what you're doing

Make your mind up, you said it was personal a minute ago

[taio]

Make your mind up, you said it was personal a minute ago

No I didn't. It's both.

[quoonbeatz]

No I didn't. It's both.

It's neither. The only thing I care about on this situation is the health and lives of my family and friends. I want everything possible to be done to protect them and that is not happening, although I'm doing as much as I can.

It's irrelevant who the government is because there is only one of them so whoever it was I'd hold them to the same standards.

Like I said, grow up.

[Lowbankclaret]

This is not news.

And it’s also not news that you are not

[taio]

It's neither. The only thing I care about on this situation is the health and lives of my family and friends. I want everything possible to be done to protect them and that is not happening.

It's irrelevant who the government is because there is only one of them so whoever it was I'd hold them to the same standards.

Like I said, grow up.

You are totally underestimating the complexities and variables. Johnson has given some very clear and stark messages today but you cant see it because you dont want to. Keep saying grow up all you like - it's meaningless and weak.

[Blackrod]

This could be a good thread with news updates and helpful info. Having spats about Boris and making it political isn’t actually helpful to anyone.

[Lowbankclaret]

There is probably a higher chance she hasn't got it, especially if those are the only symptoms, either way hope she's OK

She has the high Temperature and the dry cough too., sorry should have said.

[lakedistrictclaret]

There is no problem going out for a walk, as long as we observe the two metre rule. I went on a three mile walk along the shore of Bassenthwaite Lake today with my dog.

The trouble is, too many people are simply ignoring the social distancing advice, and it is these selfish people who will bring about a lockdown, which I think is now inevitable, probably in the next few days.

[thatdberight]

And it’s also not news that you are not

I always have. Right back on the first page of this thread.

It's a free country. You're entitled to go as far past any advice or science anywhere as you want.

[quoonbeatz]

You are totally underestimating the complexities and variables. Johnson has given some very clear and stark messages today but you cant see it because you dont want to. Keep saying grow up all you like - it's meaningless and weak.

Unsurprisingly given your form you are totally missing the point.

He has given some clear an stark messages today, agreed. I do see them and i totally understand them. But I'm not the problem here. There have been clear and stark messages already and there are still thousands, if not millions still ignoring those messages.

The time for messages has past and proper action is needed although to an extent it's already too late. I work with doctors and what's coming is going to be horrific. That's the point but you keep wazzing on about politics if you want.

[ksrclaret]

You are totally underestimating the complexities and variables. Johnson has given some very clear and stark messages today but you cant see it because you dont want to. Keep saying grow up all you like - it's meaningless and weak.

Arguments and empty rooms spring to mind.

Pipe down lad. You're the only one trying to politicise this.

[thatdberight]

There is no problem going out for a walk, as long as we observe the two metre rule. I went on a three mile walk along the shore of Bassenthwaite Lake today with my dog.

The trouble is, too many people are simply ignoring the social distancing advice, and it is these selfish people who will bring about a lockdown, which I think is now inevitable, probably in the next few days.

The issue is that most people are so ******* thick. It's a wonder they remember to breathe in after breathing out.

[Zlatan]

Hindsight, or just plain common sense

Can’t be “common sense” if only 1 person mentioned it, in a scatter gun approach. Are you telling me that after the first person died in China common sense tells you that we’d be in a lockdown now? Didn’t think so.

[taio]

Unsurprisingly given your form you are totally missing the point.

He has given some clear an stark messages today, agreed. I do see them and i totally understand them. But I'm not the problem here. There have been clear and stark messages already and there are still thousands, if not millions still ignoring those messages.

The time for messages has past and proper action is needed although to an extent it's already too late. I work with doctors and what's coming is going to be horrific. That's the point but you keep wazzing on about politics if you want.

No, the point I have continuously made on here is it's a complex and fast changing situation and the government has to make decisions based on the advice of experts. There are wider considerations too. You might have wanted a lockdown enforced a couple of weeks ago. Up to now I dont think it has been the right time to do that. It was fine for me to have a walk out today. I and will continue to do so for my own mental wellbeing because I'm working at home for the foreseeable future as of tomorrow.

[Elizabeth]

That graph is scary lowbank for the high number of deaths following lock down in China, Italy and France.

I am against lock down because of all those people who are behaving responsibly when they go out.

That is not to say that I would be surprised if one came soon because of those in the population making a complete mess of things for others

[Spijed]

In terms of social distancing there seems to be a difference between the World health organisation who say 1 metre (approx 3 feet) and the UK who say six feet.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... for-public

[quoonbeatz]

You really don't get it so never mind. Enjoy your walk, it's good for you. Hopefully you won't encounter any of the ******** who haven't been following the advice. Best wishes.

[Murger]

It's time he got tough. It's obvious there's too many selfish ***** about.

[NottsClaret]

Mad how much we’re stressing about families walking in the countryside and then tomorrow thousands of kids will be in school (essential workers is a hell of a list) and millions of workers will be mixing at sites, depots and factories across the country.

In other news, Italy had its smallest percentage increase in cases since they discovered their outbreak. Good news, surely.

[ClaretAndJew]

[Elizabeth]

I was taken out to a lovely little cafe beside the canal in Foulridge today. The cafe was able to operate a takeaway service and there was no more than four people spread out widely on the tables outside the cafe.
By the side of the cafe people passed either on foot or bicycles, no more than two together.
I could see about 100 yards up the canal a group of about 6 people walking their dogs but who had stopped to talk for about 20 mins.
Please tell me Murger which of these people are selfish *****?

[Murger]

I was taken out to a lovely little cafe beside the canal in Foulridge today. The cafe was able to operate a takeaway service and there was no more than four people spread out widely on the tables outside the cafe.
By the side of the cafe people passed either on foot or bicycles, no more than two together.
I could see about 100 yards up the canal a group of about 6 people walking their dogs but who had stopped to talk for about 20 mins.
Please tell me Murger which of these people are selfish *****?

Are you actually being serious? Just take a look at all the pictures on social media of people cramming into parks and supermarkets.

[taio]

Boris Johnson has given his most explicit warning yet that the UK might face an Italian-style lockdown to curb coronavirus amid mounting criticism of a mixed message from No 10.

(Guardian)

[Lowbankclaret]

Snowdonia national park has said it’s just had its busiest day in living memory.

What’s up with people!!!

[Rileybobs]

Snowdonia national park has said it’s just had its busiest day in living memory.

What’s up with people!!!

Presumably people thought that it would be safe to take a walk in a vast, isolated place, but a lot of people had the same thought.

[Elizabeth]

Yes I'm being very serious. I've seen those pictures.

What are the tough measures you want taking and how would those measures affect those people I saw today going about their lives on the canal?

[Murger]

Yes I'm being very serious. I've seen those pictures.

What are the tough measures you want taking and how would those measures affect those people I saw today going about their lives on the canal?

We as a society need to have it imposed on us, like Italy and Spain.

[Zlatan]

We as a society need to have it imposed on us, like Italy and Spain.

are you suggesting taking my liberty away on the account of selfish stupid people who cannot appear to follow clear instructions? Where does it stop? When does it return to normal?

[Murger]

are you suggesting taking my liberty away on the account of selfish stupid people who cannot appear to follow clear instructions? Where does it stop? When does it return to normal?

So we carry on as it is?

[thatdberight]

are you suggesting taking my liberty away on the account of selfish stupid people who cannot appear to follow clear instructions? Where does it stop? When does it return to normal?

Sadly, it's easier to police an absolute restriction than something more nuanced.

[Zlatan]

So we carry on as it is?

Actually no, I agree that a state imposed lockdown is unfortunately necessary. I wanted to highlight that it wouldn’t be necessary if people could actually do as requested.

[Murger]

Actually no, I agree that a state imposed lockdown is unfortunately necessary. I wanted to highlight that it wouldn’t be necessary if people could actually do as requested.

Fair enough, just mis-read it.

[Lowbankclaret]

A lockdown or not will unfortunately be determined by the number of dead people this week.

I really cannot understand people’s actions today.

They will be the ones moaning when we are in total lockdown.

[Zlatan]

Fair enough, just mis-read it.

Nah you didn’t mate, I inferred it badly, apologies

[joey13]

Can’t be “common sense” if only 1 person mentioned it, in a scatter gun approach. Are you telling me that after the first person died in China common sense tells you that we’d be in a lockdown now? Didn’t think so.

3 weeks ago Johnson said he shook hands with infected patients in hospital, hindsight or common sense ?

[Zlatan]

3 weeks ago Johnson said he shook hands with infected patients in hospital, hindsight or common sense ?

You answered that for yourself...

[joey13]

You answered that for yourself...

Whereas you conveniently didn’t

[tiger76]

Unfortunately, I think some people will only take notice, when someone close to them has died.

Hopefully it won't come to that,but i fear you're right,either someone close to them dying or becoming seriously ill,no-one is saying you have to be chained to the sofa,just exercise common sense when you're outdoors as while as your limbs.

[thatdberight]

Hopefully it won't come to that,but i fear you're right,either someone close to them dying or becoming seriously ill,no-one is saying you have to be chained to the sofa,just exercise common sense when you're outdoors as while as your limbs.

But your definition of common sense includes, when out for a walk, standing 6 foot away from the person you sleep beside and share the house with? I don't think that's common, or any other kind of, sense.

[Zlatan]

3 weeks ago Johnson said he shook hands with infected patients in hospital, hindsight or common sense ?

Whereas you conveniently didn’t

No, I didn’t. I didn’t have to point out that Johnson clearly had no common sense at all. I also don’t have to point out that hindsight has f#ck all to do with common sense or what Johnson did 3 weeks ago.

[tiger76]

Are you social distancing from your other half?

I don't have one,i'm limiting my activity as much as reasonably possible,and now that my work has ordered staff to work from home,i'll be distancing myself even more,look i understand this is not normal behaviour for humans,we're a sociable breed,but if this is what it takes to halt the spread of this wretched disease,it's a small price to pay surely?

[FactualFrank]

FB_IMG_1584909280846.jpg (36.49 KiB) Viewed 3724 times

[tiger76]

You seem very quick to have a pop at what everyone else is doing from your lofty position on the, erm, bus. Top deck presumably?

I was going to work,otherwise i probably wouldn't have ventured out today,there was 4/5 people on the bus,as it happens i walked home,but that's got it's own risks,as you have to ensure you keep your distance from other people,you clearly don't feel these measures are needed or am i wrong?

[TsarBomba]

Sadly, it's easier to police an absolute restriction than something more nuanced.

I have no idea how we would Police an absolute lockdown, and enforce it. Not a clue.

From what I’ve seen in London, we need a lockdown ASAP, but enforcing it is another matter altogether.

We can’t meet our call demand as it is, without rounding up thousands of people ignoring quarantine.

The only way I can see it being done is with the help of the Army.

Edit- And we get slammed with domestics as it is, without people being forced to be together for the next 12 weeks+

[tiger76]

But your definition of common sense includes, when out for a walk, standing 6 foot away from the person you sleep beside and share the house with? I don't think that's common, or any other kind of, sense.

Normally i'd agree.but we are hardly in normal times,do you agree with the government's advice or not? because that's their recommendations,as far as i can see.

[NewClaret]

A lockdown or not will unfortunately be determined by the number of dead people this week.

I really cannot understand people’s actions today.

They will be the ones moaning when we are in total lockdown.

To be fair:

- Exacerbated by the fact it’s Mothers Day and many other family meals/events were effectively cancelled at late notice on Friday, so families decided to arrange family walks instead. No doubt in my mind it would have been less busy if it weren’t Mother’s Day.

- The nice weather didn’t help.

- I agree it was busy out today, but on my walk I certainly didn’t see anyone in 2 meters of each other (outside immediate family). I did see lots of people deliberately distancing themselves from one another as they passed in the walk.

- The pictures in the media are taken from completely misleading angles. I think if you had drone footage you would see that the vast majority are 2m apart (outside immediate family).

[Rileybobs]

Normally i'd agree.but we are hardly in normal times,do you agree with the government's advice or not? because that's their recommendations,as far as i can see.

The government has not advised people to keep 2m apart from people they share a house with. That would be totally ridiculous.

[Paul Waine]

Are We Destroying Society In Order to Save It?

A blog by Prof Craig Pirrong: https://streetwiseprofessor.com/2020/03/

In 1968, journalist Peter Arnett claimed that a U.S. major had told him that a particular village in Vietnam, Ben Tre, had to be extirpated: “It became necessary to destroy the town to save it” (from the Vietcong), sayeth the major (according to Arnett). This has entered American discourse as “we had to destroy the village to save it.”

That phrase came to mind when contemplating the havoc wreaked by the CCP Virus. Europe is shutting down, country by country. Parts of the US have shut down. Others are on the verge of shutting down. The economic carnage is immense. Governments talk of spending trillions of dollars in various forms of relief: the loss of output/income will probably be measured in trillions.

Contra Hayek, it is the curious task of an economist to ask whether it’s worth it. That is, economics is predicated on the concept of scarcity, which in turn implies that every choice involves a trade-off. You want more of a good–or in the present instance, less of a bad–you have to give up something.
What price are you willing to pay? How much is saving 1000 lives worth? 10,000?

Orders of magnitude. Let’s say that shutting down the US economy through radical social distancing, quarantines, etc., saves 1000 lives, and costs $1 trillion. That works out to $1 billion per life. Moreover, the lives saved are most likely aged, infirm, sick individuals with short life expectancies and poor life quality.

Is that a price you are willing to pay? There is no right answer: the answer is subjective. Your answer may differ from mine. But when making decisions, it is a question we have to answer.

Increase the death toll by 10, and you are still at $100 million/life. This is far beyond any value of life estimate used in other regulatory and policy decisions.

If the cost of an economic shutdown is $1 trillion, you would have to save on the order of 100,000 lives to approximate the value of a statistical life (around $10 million) the US government uses for other policy making purposes.

I know that most people recoil at such calculations. The idea of valuing lives in dollars violates most people’s moral intuitions.

So let’s focus on lives. A major recession–or depression, which is not inconceivable–costs lives. Suicide rates go up. Substance abuse goes up, which costs lives in the near term (overdoses, fatal vehicle accidents) and the long term (substance abuse shortens lives). Stress-related fatalities (heart attack, stroke) go up. Murder rates go up. Consumption of health care declines, leading to premature deaths.

And then we can start talking about quality of life.

Pretty soon it adds up. We are not just evaluating the trade-off of lives for money. We are evaluating the trade-off of lives for lives.
That is, always remember Bastiat: think of the unseen. There is an unseen public health cost associated with major economic dislocation. That unseen cost has to be weighed against the cost that is right in front of our faces at present, i.e., the death toll from CPCV-19/20.

It is of course difficult to estimate, or even approximate, the various costs. Our radical ignorance about the virus makes it difficult to assess what the death toll would be under various policies. Similarly, we are operating in completely unexplored territory in trying to estimate the economic cost, let alone the health cost, of more or less draconian restrictions on our lives and movement.

But we have to at least confront the trade-off. Acknowledge it. Grapple with it. My strong sense is that the monomaniacal focus on controlling spread of the virus, the costs be damned, is operating according to the logic of destroying society in order to save it. That logic was absurd in 1968. It is absurd in 2020.

The comments accompanying this blog are also worth a read, if you find this interesting.

EDIT: Also posted on "Boris - Discuss" Thread (or whatever it is called.

[Paul Waine]

There is no problem going out for a walk, as long as we observe the two metre rule. I went on a three mile walk along the shore of Bassenthwaite Lake today with my dog.

The trouble is, too many people are simply ignoring the social distancing advice, and it is these selfish people who will bring about a lockdown, which I think is now inevitable, probably in the next few days.

Kew Garden, 8,000 visitors Saturday.

Kew Garden, Sunday - closed - they'd estimated 12,000 visitors - too many to maintain "social distancing."

All the indoor glasshouses etc were already closed before this w/end.

I think all London's Royal Parks may also be closed - I think they were open today, though Sunday afternoon traffic was stopped from entering Richmond Park. I hope pedestrians and, maybe cyclists, can still get in the parks.

EDIT: Earlier last week National Trust has closed all buildings, but was keeping all its gardens etc open - and was allowing free admission. As a result of the numbers visiting - and not social isolating - the gardens are now closed.

[thatdberight]

Normally i'd agree.but we are hardly in normal times,do you agree with the government's advice or not? because that's their recommendations,as far as i can see.

Not as I read them. I've heard no-one (bar you) suggest this.