Covid-19

[thatdberight]

We scientists said lock down. But UK politicians refused to listen

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... who-advice

Slightly twisted headline for effect (in a newspaper - who'd have thought it!); "Scientists like us" (one group of scientists) as quoted. "We scientists" (implying all scientists) as headlined.

Still, interesting views from the left-wing Prof. Ward (don't blame me - she combines her political views and undoubted scientific credentials into her Twitter profile).

[Spijed]

It’s a well known fact that the U.K. is currently under reporting both cases and deaths as we don’t test everyone and only report hospital deaths. It’ll take a while to get to a better representation of the true figures. Why are we getting so snotty about the same being true in China?

On the flip side I suppose, Germany is not attributing every death to Covid19 even though the person has the virus. They are looking at whether other causes are more likely to have killed someone.

[martin_p]

On the flip side I suppose, Germany is not attributing every death to Covid19 even though the person has the virus. They are looking at whether other causes are more likely to have killed someone.

So presumably we’ll be having a go at the Germans as well.

[Spijed]

So presumably we’ll be having a go at the Germans as well.

Take Eddie Large, it seems that he'd had a massive heart attack and wasn't going to survive but because he'd picked up the virus in hospital that'll go on his death certificate as cause of death.

[martin_p]

Take Eddie Large, it seems that he'd had a massive heart attack and wasn't going to survive but because he'd picked up the virus in hospital that'll go on his death certificate as cause of death.

Which is sort of the point I’m making. There isn’t a consistent international method of measuring this so why are we having a go at the Chinese?

[dsr]

We scientists said lock down. But UK politicians refused to listen

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... who-advice

Is she saying that all scientists said the same thing, or that some scientists said one thing and others said another and that the government listened to the wrong ones?

[Quicknick]

It appears around 70% of deaths in the UK are male and it seems for no known reason. Does this apply across Europe or is it just the UK?

Probably for the same reasons that men die earlier than women.

[CombatClaret]

Is she saying that all scientists said the same thing, or that some scientists said one thing and others said another and that the government listened to the wrong ones?

It seems this comes after that point. They consulted many scientists, chose to go along with some but not other but then were shown how devastating the results could be if they continued down that path.
On March 9th a report showed that at that time the biggest impact on cases and deaths would come from social distancing and the protection of vulnerable groups.
On the 12th the Government came out with it's advise, which didn't include the social distancing recommended, flying in the face of almost every other country, WHO, CDC etc. Then eventually they had to enforce did enforce it but 11 days later.
And in that time hundreds of thousands of people will have spread the virus than thousands of those died as a result.

[NottsClaret]

It appears around 70% of deaths in the UK are male and it seems for no known reason. Does this apply across Europe or is it just the UK?

I read one suggestion that perhaps women's immune's systems are boosted during pregnancy and this leaves them more able to fight it off. Not sure what sort of scientist said it now, can't find the article.

Unfortunately, as this is actual biological science, identifying as a woman makes no difference. You actually have to be one.

[dsr]

It seems this comes after that point. They consulted many scientists, chose to go along with some but not other but then were shown how devastating the results could be if they continued down that path.
On March 9th a report showed that at that time the biggest impact on cases and deaths would come from social distancing and the protection of vulnerable groups.
On the 12th the Government came out with it's advise, which didn't include the social distancing recommended, flying in the face of almost every other country, WHO, CDC etc. Then eventually they had to enforce did enforce it but 11 days later.
And in that time hundreds of thousands of people will have spread the virus than thousands of those died as a result.

I take it that it is established beyond all possible doubt that the lockdown strategy, if and when coronavirus is settled, will have resulted in fewer deaths than any alternative. But where is the proof?

It appears that approx 2,000 extra deaths last week over and above the average were not caused by coronavirus. Do these get offset? This particular scientist is clearly certain that she was right - has she taken all events, both past and future, into account?

[thatdberight]

I take it that it is established beyond all possible doubt that the lockdown strategy, if and when coronavirus is settled, will have resulted in fewer deaths than any alternative. But where is the proof?

It appears that approx 2,000 extra deaths last week over and above the average were not caused by coronavirus. Do these get offset? This particular scientist is clearly certain that she was right - has she taken all events, both past and future, into account?

I think when you get to Prof. Ward's conclusions at to what should happen next, which are largely not medical but socio-political, you can see where she comes from on this issue (and presumably all other issues).

[RingoMcCartney]

Genuine question. Are there any countries you would be happy to see us interdependent with?

Genuine answer.

There are many. However, interdependence assumes something of a level playing field.

Over reliance, which is how I see our relationship with China, a brutal , tyrannical and murderous, communist dictatorship lets not forget. Is an entirely different thing.

[CombatClaret]

I think when you get to Prof. Ward's conclusions at to what should happen next, which are largely not medical but socio-political, you can see where she comes from on this issue (and presumably all other issues).

She probably also biases her opinions by being Professor of Public Health at a top university.

[tim_noone]

Genuine answer.

There are many. However, interdependence assumes something of a level playing field.

Over reliance, which is how I see our relationship with China, a brutal , tyrannical and murderous, communist dictatorship lets not forget. Is an entirely different thing.

Throw in a Good takeaway...done deal

[Zlatan]

I am shocked to see that the rules apply to some yet not others...

This video is doing the rounds on Facebook and it clearly show masses of deranged people who think that its OK to mingle in public and they appear to be permitted to do so by the Met Police. https://www.facebook.com/stu.hirst.priv ... 807288208/

News article here https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... WzifvUVtxw

[TVC15]

Given the last decade has seen more British companies move their manufacturing to China than any other period in history and more companies than ever import components / parts from China than ever I’m guessing it could be quite difficult to reverse a lot of this without our government providing some very hefty (and now not affordable) subsidies and incentives to bring back this work to the UK.

[thatdberight]

She probably also biases her opinions by being Professor of Public Health at a top university.

I already acknowledged her undoubted academic credentials. But if your left-wing tendencies are important enough to make your very short Twitter bio, I think it's reasonable to assume they inform your opinions.

"Prof Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Director of Education, Imperial School of Public Health. Left wing, LFC, cats. Views my own."

[Paul Waine]

I am shocked to see that the rules apply to some yet not others...

This video is doing the rounds on Facebook and it clearly show masses of deranged people who think that its OK to mingle in public and they appear to be permitted to do so by the Met Police. https://www.facebook.com/stu.hirst.priv ... 807288208/

News article here https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... WzifvUVtxw

Quote from Sky News: "Met Police Commissioner Cressida Dick was also present but appeared to be more than two metres from other people."

Was she in charge - and observing everyone else breaking the "social distancing" rules?

It seems a very strange way to express support for NHS, by doing exactly what we've all been asked not to do in order to "protect the NHS."

Looks like it's time to knock this Thurs 8pm stuff "on the head" - everywhere other than on your own door step.

[Lowbankclaret]

My best estimate was 20,000 to 40,000 deaths, need to increase my upper limit to 60,000. Based on the office of national statistics looking back at old figures. We have already bust 20,000 and we have not hit the peak, or the top of the plateau .

Plus we are still on course for another 5-6 weeks of lockdown.

[Lowbankclaret]

Nothing to hide here

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ients.html

[tim_noone]

I am shocked to see that the rules apply to some yet not others...

This video is doing the rounds on Facebook and it clearly show masses of deranged people who think that its OK to mingle in public and they appear to be permitted to do so by the Met Police. https://www.facebook.com/stu.hirst.priv ... 807288208/

News article here https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... WzifvUVtxw

Sorry but already mentioned this on another thread regards the same outside chelsea and westminster hospital...only ringo responded. Obviously it's not a big deal......

[Burnley1989]

My mother works in Intensive Care and has just finished a 13 hour shift with a 30 minute break, she said it’s like nothing you could ever imagine in there. It’s not full at all but everyone that’s in has COVID and are very sick. They want them on Wards but at the moment it’s difficult to make that decision to move them.

[Spijed]

Nothing to hide here

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ients.html

That's probably if it isnt the cause of death, which it wont be in a number of cases.

[Lowbankclaret]

Care homes are ringing me for PPE as Covid is like a Tsunami.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... gures.html

[thatdberight]

My best estimate was 20,000 to 40,000 deaths

To be honest your best estimate doesn't count for **** all because that's the sum of what you know that anybody else doesn't and how reliable you are.

[Spijed]

Care homes are ringing me for PPE as Covid is like a Tsunami.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... gures.html

If that's the case does that mean Germany is under reporting their numbers?

[Taffy on the wing]

I read one suggestion that perhaps women's immune's systems are boosted during pregnancy and this leaves them more able to fight it off. Not sure what sort of scientist said it now, can't find the article.

Unfortunately, as this is actual biological science, identifying as a woman makes no difference. You actually have to be one.

You just ruined Ringo’s day!

[Taffy on the wing]

I read one suggestion that perhaps women's immune's systems are boosted during pregnancy and this leaves them more able to fight it off. Not sure what sort of scientist said it now, can't find the article.

Unfortunately, as this is actual biological science, identifying as a woman makes no difference. You actually have to be one.

You just ruined Ringo’s day!

[RingoMcCartney]

Care homes are ringing me for PPE as Covid is like a Tsunami.

Is that right?

Well, I was trying to get PPE from you for Woodside care home in padiham exactly a week ago.

However, Id previously said that the border posts that had been allowed to fall into disrepair because of the European union's freedom of movement rules. Could have been used to help slow the spread of the virus. Subsequently every nation in Europe did exactly what I'd suggested. However, you branded me a "racist" for suggesting it. You refused to retract your hysterically embarrassing claim and instead put me on your foe list.

Had you been a grown up , and not had the face on , youd have seen my posts. You probably pretend not to see this. You can always click on reveal but to save further embarrassment you wont.

Anyway, you stick to what you're best at. Indulging what seems to be a rather ghoulish obsession with mortality rates.

Glad to see those regular shots of your computer screen with the latest figures on deaths have now gone.

Along with your regular updates on just how accurate your predictions had been were , in my opinion, distastefully morbid. Your spread sheet wasnt some profit and loss account. Each one of your numbers was a loved one. Someone's dad, someone's mum, someone's grandma or grandad , someone's brother or sister and someone's child.

Everyone of your, "I told you so" moments has been a personal loss for someone, somewhere.





Just my opinion, others will disagree. That's what this board is all about.....

[tiger76]

The BBC forced to correct themselves.

Earlier on Friday we reported that a boss of an NHS trust had contacted the BBC with concerns about the provision of gowns for staff during the coronavirus crisis.

He had asked the BBC for the phone numbers of Burberry and Barbour - two companies which have become involved in making gowns - because he was concerned about supply shortages.

We should clarify that the person concerned is not the boss of an NHS trust but is part of a network of organisations helping to source personal protective equipment for some NHS trusts.

The mistake was caused by a misunderstanding of the person's role in the fight against the pandemic.

Still doesn't excuse the PPE shortage,if there is one at that trust and others,but it's important to put this info into context.

[thatdberight]

He had asked the BBC for the phone numbers of Burberry and Barbour - two companies which have become involved in making gowns - because he was concerned about supply shortages.

What a strange way to go about getting their numbers. If I was going to the BBC it would be because I wanted publicity - not to get the phone numbers.

If he's short of PPE and wants to publicise that further (I think to be fair that's already in the public domain) then I guess that's OK. Making up a BS story to back it up is actually unhelpful as it may give the impression it's all BS.

[Paul Waine]

BBC correction on Burberry coronavirus plea

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52333540

"Earlier on Friday we reported that a boss of an NHS trust had contacted the BBC with concerns about the provision of gowns for staff during the coronavirus crisis."

"We should clarify that the person concerned is not the boss of an NHS trust but is part of a network of organisations helping to source personal protective equipment for some NHS trusts."

Not like the BBC to get something wrong, is it? This "boss of NHS Trust" has been major item on every news bulleting I've heard (R4) or seen (BBC TV News) from 7 a.m. this morning up to 6 p.m. this evening.

[Paul Waine]

The BBC forced to correct themselves.

Earlier on Friday we reported that a boss of an NHS trust had contacted the BBC with concerns about the provision of gowns for staff during the coronavirus crisis.

He had asked the BBC for the phone numbers of Burberry and Barbour - two companies which have become involved in making gowns - because he was concerned about supply shortages.

We should clarify that the person concerned is not the boss of an NHS trust but is part of a network of organisations helping to source personal protective equipment for some NHS trusts.

The mistake was caused by a misunderstanding of the person's role in the fight against the pandemic.

Still doesn't excuse the PPE shortage,if there is one at that trust and others,but it's important to put this info into context.

You beat me to it, tiger.

The last sentence ("still doesn't excuse...), of course, is your own. Just as my last sentence is my own.

[Paul Waine]

My best estimate was 20,000 to 40,000 deaths, need to increase my upper limit to 60,000. Based on the office of national statistics looking back at old figures. We have already bust 20,000 and we have not hit the peak, or the top of the plateau .

Plus we are still on course for another 5-6 weeks of lockdown.

Have I missed something, Lowbank?

"We have already bust 20,000....?"

Last I heard earlier today was that UK deaths (all regrettable) are somewhere around 14,500...

[Paul Waine]

From BBC:

The World Health Organization (WHO) has cautioned countries against investing too much in antibody tests. A number of nations intend to purchase them in the hope of identifying who can return to work. However the WHO says there is "no evidence" that having had the virus would guarantee immunity

Bit of a downer for everyone's plans if this is correct.

[Zlatan]

Have I missed something, Lowbank?

"We have already bust 20,000....?"

Last I heard earlier today was that UK deaths (all regrettable) are somewhere around 14,500...

When you factor in 26% and a gazillions of viral spread we’re exposed to numpty nine more cases that the next person...

[thatdberight]

Have I missed something, Lowbank?

"We have already bust 20,000....?"

Last I heard earlier today was that UK deaths (all regrettable) are somewhere around 14,500...

I think we might be in the region of 20k - don't forget the non-hospital deaths which are only in the later ONS stats. Of all the nonsense he's posted on here, that's certainly not one of the standouts.

[NewClaret]

The BBC forced to correct themselves.

Earlier on Friday we reported that a boss of an NHS trust had contacted the BBC with concerns about the provision of gowns for staff during the coronavirus crisis.

He had asked the BBC for the phone numbers of Burberry and Barbour - two companies which have become involved in making gowns - because he was concerned about supply shortages.

We should clarify that the person concerned is not the boss of an NHS trust but is part of a network of organisations helping to source personal protective equipment for some NHS trusts.

The mistake was caused by a misunderstanding of the person's role in the fight against the pandemic.

Still doesn't excuse the PPE shortage,if there is one at that trust and others,but it's important to put this info into context.

Unbelievable. Don’t doubt there are shortages of PPE but this sort of shoddy, sensationalist reporting by the BBC is a disgrace. Not helpful at all.

[thatdberight]

From BBC:

The World Health Organization (WHO) has cautioned countries against investing too much in antibody tests. A number of nations intend to purchase them in the hope of identifying who can return to work. However the WHO says there is "no evidence" that having had the virus would guarantee immunity

Bit of a downer for everyone's plans if this is correct.

This eventually leads to healthcare systems geared up for a year of dealing with cases, the old, the ill and the very concerned lock themselves away, the rest of us get on with it, we try to limit the damage to health and continue to be productive while we wait for a vaccine.

[tiger76]

You beat me to it, tiger.

The last sentence ("still doesn't excuse...), of course, is your own. Just as my last sentence is my own.

It's hardly a secret that there is issues in the PPE supply in some areas,but misinformation like the BBC have been peddling all day isn't helpful,this whole episode is weird to be honest.

[dsr]

Nothing to hide here

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ients.html

You disagree with the concept that some doctors would put coronavirus on the death certificate if they suspect it might be there but they don't know, and some wouldn't? I take it you would prefer for all deaths to include coronavirus on the certificate if there is the slightest chance it contributed?

[Jakubclaret]

Hi Jakub, but the science says not; face masks don't stop the wearer breathing in air and they don't stop us breathing in infected air. In the countries where people have been wearing face masks for many years it's the people who are infected that wear the masks - to stop/limit them infecting other people. I understand the science supports that. Sadik Khan is arguing for people to wear face masks in case they are infected but are asymptomatic. He's then trying to say that we all may be asymptomatic with the infection and just don't know it, yet.

The other issue is how people would use the mask. I heard someone on the radio this morning saying: i) we'd put it on with "dirty" hands, ii) we'd take it off with "dirty" hands, iii) we'd put it in our pocket and then get it out and put it on again and iv) we'd feel as though we were safe while wearing the mask and so forget about social distancing, which is the most effective way of avoiding infection. Wearing a face mask will not stop us getting infected - unless we are trained, as health workers are, how to avoid infection.

So, maybe, as a courtesy to others, we should all wear face masks (if we can get them), but we should remember that it won't provide much protection.

I understand that but despite what the experts say I won't be taking any chances, what you've also got to think about & remember we will be hitting peak hayfever soon where people sneeze all the over place & unexpectedly, tweaking cultural & behavioural traits will have a massive impact upon controlling the virus, literally programming yourself into a different system of doing things when's it's repeated often enough it will become habitual.

[tiger76]

You disagree with the concept that some doctors would put coronavirus on the death certificate if they suspect it might be there but they don't know, and some wouldn't? I take it you would prefer for all deaths to include coronavirus on the certificate if there is the slightest chance it contributed?

We've got an elderly relative in hospital,he's in his 90's,been in for about 5 weeks,diagnosed with various ailments,as you'd expect in someone of his vintage,he was tested negative for CV a couple of weeks ago,then he contracted pneumonia,which he's now recovered from,however he's now tested positive for CV,when he passes away in the next few days probably,it'll be interesting what's certified as his cause of death,but the sad reality is he'd have probably passed away soon even without contracting CV,as would many of the others,their deaths are sad of course,but let's not get hysterical,and start attributing ever death in care homes and hospitals to CV,when we don't definitively know.

[Paul Waine]

I think we might be in the region of 20k - don't forget the non-hospital deaths which are only in the later ONS stats. Of all the nonsense he's posted on here, that's certainly not one of the standouts.

Yes, I was forgetting about the deaths in care/nursing homes and in the community. But, really, more than 30% of the covid-19 tested positive deaths in hospitals? Were the ONS figures up to 3rd April so high?

[Spijed]

From BBC:

The World Health Organization (WHO) has cautioned countries against investing too much in antibody tests. A number of nations intend to purchase them in the hope of identifying who can return to work. However the WHO says there is "no evidence" that having had the virus would guarantee immunity

Bit of a downer for everyone's plans if this is correct.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... t-covid-19

“It is clear that immune responses are being mounted against Covid-19 in infected people,” says virologist Mike Skinner of Imperial College London. “And the antibodies created by that response will provide protection against future infections – but we should note that it is unlikely this protection will be for life.”

[thatdberight]

Yes, I was forgetting about the deaths in care/nursing homes and in the community. But, really, more than 30% of the covid-19 tested positive deaths in hospitals? Were the ONS figures up to 3rd April so high?

Could be 6,000 now (FT) or 7,500 (Telegraph) today.

Whatever if is, on top of the 14,000 on hospitals it's enough to get towards 20,000.

[dsr]

It'll be hard to assess however you do it. Obviously there will be more deaths in nursing homes than usual, and the estimated numbers can be found out. (Though not on google that I can find.)

But then they need to assess how many are coronavirus, how many are people who would have gone to hospital to die there of other causes but were kept at home instead, how many would have gone to hospital to recover there but were kept at home and died, and how many are just extra deaths caused by the lockdown and its side effects, specifically the effect on people who don't understand why they have been abandoned, or have decided (consciously or subconsciously) that life isn't worth living any more.

[Taffy on the wing]

You disagree with the concept that some doctors would put coronavirus on the death certificate if they suspect it might be there but they don't know, and some wouldn't? I take it you would prefer for all deaths to include coronavirus on the certificate if there is the slightest chance it contributed?

I think the biggest clue to wether they died of Coronavirus or not..... is they can't fckin" breathe!
Daily Mail / Conservative apologist!........

[Grumps]

I think the biggest clue to wether they died of Coronavirus or not..... is they can't fckin" breathe!
Daily Mail / Conservative apologist!........

Thankyou doctor taffy.

[taio]

I think the biggest clue to wether they died of Coronavirus or not..... is they can't fckin" breathe!
Daily Mail / Conservative apologist!........

These days older people typically live in care homes for relatively short periods of time - average length of stay is just 18 -24 months and many only a few months So they are places where people are sadly at the end of their life - they often have comorbidities including respiratory conditions such as COPD. 'Cant fckin breathe' does not mean they have had coronavirus - many people have died in care homes due to respiratory failure prior to coronavirus and the same applies to some people not infected during this pandemic.