Covid-19

[keith1879]

Sweden - worth a read:

Anders Tegnell, the man who convinced Sweden not to go into lockdown

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9dca ... 4c05fabbf9

Interesting . Unlike all the other countries I have looked at in any detail it's not clear that they have hit their peak for daily deaths yet....which to be fair is roughly what you would expect from this approach. Their cases per million of population suggest that they are miles short of any kind of herd immunity (again ...what you would expect at this point). I guess they will only be able to make a judgment in many months time as to how successful it was.

[tiger76]

BREAKING
Further 70 deaths from coronavirus
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon confirms 10,721 people have tested positive for Covid-19, an increase of 200 from yesterday.

1,754 patients are in hospital with a suspected or confirmed case (down eight), with 126 being treated in intensive care (also down eight).

2,448 people who tested positive have been released from hospital following recovery.

A further 70 people with coronavirus have died, taking the total to 1,332 deaths in Scotland.

And in the 1st case of divergence the Scottish Government are recommending face coverings in enclosed spaces,but it won't be mandatory yet.

Scottish government recommends use of face coverings on public transport and in food shops
The first minister pivots to face coverings and says guidance has just been published on the Scottish government website.

Ms Sturgeon says she is talking about face coverings not masks and says the current stay-at-home and social-distancing guidelines remain the most important.

She says science shows there may be some benefit to wearing a face covering, for example on public transport or in food shops.

The benefit comes in cases where someone has the virus and is unaware of that, she adds.

[tiger76]

From the daily briefing:Addressing deaths outside hospitals, Mr Hancock says 4,343 deaths in care homes have been recorded since Easter.

Deaths in care homes account for a sixth of the total death toll, he says, suggesting that they are in line with yearly averages.

He goes on to say that, from Wednesday, the government will publish daily figures of deaths in care homes and other non-hospital setting, something which he says was not possible before now.

He says the government wants to be as transparent as possible and save as many lives as possible.

He goes on to announce that all residents and care home staff will soon be tested, whether they have symptoms or not.

[Burnley1989]

From the daily briefing:Addressing deaths outside hospitals, Mr Hancock says 4,343 deaths in care homes have been recorded since Easter.

Deaths in care homes account for a sixth of the total death toll, he says, suggesting that they are in line with yearly averages.

He goes on to say that, from Wednesday, the government will publish daily figures of deaths in care homes and other non-hospital setting, something which he says was not possible before now.

He says the government wants to be as transparent as possible and save as many lives as possible.

He goes on to announce that all residents and care home staff will soon be tested, whether they have symptoms or not.

Sounds like a step in the right direction, we shall see....

[Zlatan]

I'm wondering why the advice in Scotland is different than it is in England...?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52457324

[tiger76]

Hancock: Care home 'top priority from start'
A reporter asks whether care homes will now be a priority given the number of deaths.

Matt Hancock says they have been "a top priority from the start".

He says the government issued their first guidance to care homes in February and "have been working with them throughout".

Mr Hancock adds: "By their nature, care homes look after some of the most vulnerable people anyway and the most vulnerable to the disease.

"But they have been a focus from the start, we have strengthened rules to improve infection control and making testing available throughout the care sector is incredibly important."

He also reveals he asked for daily data on care home deaths "a week or so ago" and that data is now available.

Prof John Newton also says that "intensive studies" in care homes showed the presence of symptoms "was not a very good marker" as there was a significant number of residents who were asymptomatic.

But testing is being increased.

If care homes have been a top priority from the get go heaven help us,if that was the case then where was all the PPE and testing weeks ago.

[tiger76]

Good to see Hancock being pressed for once.

Hancock asked to apologise for social care decisions
The health secretary faces two questions in quick succession about deaths in social care.

ITV's Paul Brand asks him why social care was not more of a priority earlier on while Sky's Nick Martin suggests the health secretary should take the opportunity to apologise to the British public, saying death is care homes is way, way higher than what should be expected.

Mr Hancock says social care is a "top priority" and defends the government's handling, saying it has been testing in care homes since March and issued guidance on what patients and workers should do,

Pressed whether he should issue an apology, he suggests that this is an "unreasonable question".

[Brucefanclaret]

If Care Homes have been a top priority since the outset, why are we only just getting figures for deaths? They have been telling us for days that Care Homes’ figures are difficult to collate. Since Care Homes are, by regulation, required to inform their regulator of any death in their Home, why have they not been collecting figures from CQC before now? They have only just amended the notification form to state that Coronavirus is implicated in the death. They could have done this weeks ago. It is nothing to do with the number of Homes or disparate ownership at all.

[Zlatan]

If Care Homes have been a top priority since the outset

Perhaps because they've been lying to us... just a thought.

Or perhaps they didn't have the level of understanding at the start of all this and are only realising they've screwed up and if they keep churning out the rhetoric people will eventually believe it... another thought.

They wont have to worry about their voters thought, even if 20M people die they'll still blindly vote for them... final thought.

Addendum: Of course these comments apply to any party that is the current incumbents, they will always spin and counter spin, getting tired of it all now and wish we had a leader like in NZ, she's a good 'un that one.

[evensteadiereddie]

It's to do with the grim milestone of 20,000 deaths which, even without care home deaths and so on, has come too soon. The magnitude of the disaster and, to some extent, government ineptitude, cannot be disguised any longer.
It will be interesting to see public/political reaction when the true figure, nudging 30,000 by then, is revealed.

[randomclaret2]

Belgians must be wishing they had a government doing as badly as ours

[Grumps]

Some care homes thought for themselves and closed to visitors before being forced to
They sourced PPE and had plenty. They test everyones temp every few hours, and now have the testing kits.
And guess what... They have had no outbreaks.
Sometimes you just have to think for yourself and not wait to be told what to do
A bit like those wanting a statement regarding face masks.... If you want one, get one and wear it.

[TVC15]

I doubt the number of deaths reported will ever be the true number.
The number of deaths in care homes this month are double the numbers in the same period last year - yet only part of the increase is being attributed to Covid.
I think it will be many months / and possibly years before the real truth and tragedy of what has happened in care homes comes to light.
The very places where by definition the most vulnerable in society who needed care and protection from Covid were also the last places to be recognised, the last place to get PPE, etc etc

[Grumps]

What people also need to take note of is that many care home residents have active DNRs attached to them
It was said very early on that these people, if having Covid-19 would be better cared for in the homes, as nothing would be done in hospital, so could be looked after, with dignity, at the place they call home.

[taio]

I doubt the number of deaths reported will ever be the true number.
The number of deaths in care homes this month are double the numbers in the same period last year - yet only part of the increase is being attributed to Covid.
I think it will be many months / and possibly years before the real truth and tragedy of what has happened in care homes comes to light.
The very places where by definition the most vulnerable in society who needed care and protection from Covid were also the last places to be recognised, the last place to get PPE, etc etc

They weren't the last place to get PPE.

[TVC15]

They weren't the last place to get PPE.

One of them - lots of care homes have been on the news almost every day talking about their struggle to get PPE and the lengths they have had to go to.
Who were the last place to get PPE then ?
And more importantly do you think that the care sector received adequate PPE when they should have done ?

[taio]

One of them - lots of care homes have been on the news almost every day talking about their struggle to get PPE and the lengths they have had to go to.
Who were the last place to get PPE then ?
And more importantly do you think that the care sector received adequate PPE when they should have done ?

Adequacy is a different argument to saying they were the last to get PPE.

[TVC15]

What people also need to take note of is that many care home residents have active DNRs attached to them
It was said very early on that these people, if having Covid-19 would be better cared for in the homes, as nothing would be done in hospital, so could be looked after, with dignity, at the place they call home.

And one of the things that community nurses in Burnley (and probably in the rest of the country but I know for a fact in Burnley) have been doing in the last couple of months is going round the Care Homes to get more people to sign DNRs.
And I’m not saying that is necessarily a bad thing as dying at “home” for many and their families will be better then dying in hospital.

[TVC15]

Adequacy is a different argument to saying they were the last to get PPE.

I know it is.
But who were the last place ?

[taio]

I know it is.
But who were the last place ?

Not care homes. Because flipping it on its head they were one of the first settings to get PPE.

[TVC15]

Not care homes. Because flipping it on its head they were one of the first settings to get PPE.

So do you think they got adequate PPE and do you think they got it early enough ?
Wondering why their trade body and individual care homes were on the news on virtually a daily basis talking about how they did not have any and couldn’t get hold of any either.

[Grumps]

And one of the things that community nurses in Burnley (and probably in the rest of the country but I know for a fact in Burnley) have been doing in the last couple of months is going round the Care Homes to get more people to sign DNRs.
And I’m not saying that is necessarily a bad thing as dying at “home” for many and their families will be better then dying in hospital.

Needs next of kin or resident themselves if able, to sign though

[taio]

So do you think they got adequate PPE and do you think they got it early enough ?
Wondering why their trade body and individual care homes were on the news on virtually a daily basis talking about how they did not have any and couldn’t get hold of any either.

Again different argument. I've said on here multiple times that PPE has been a major problem but at the same time recognised the huge and understandable challenge globally. But in my experience the majority of care homes have had sufficient PPE protection but some haven't. It's often a hand to mouth situation with care homes running low on stock - meaning managers and staff get understandably very worried - but they get supplies just in time. Some care homes aren't controlling their stock and ordering effectively.

[paulatky]

So do you think they got adequate PPE and do you think they got it early enough ?
Wondering why their trade body and individual care homes were on the news on virtually a daily basis talking about how they did not have any and couldn’t get hold of any either.

As 85% of care homes are privately owned wasnt it the care homes owners who were responsible for ordering and having plentiful stocks of PPE,

Why is the government getting all the flack.
The flack they could take is not taking it seriously enough early doors and not giving a warning to care homes.

[CombatClaret]

Again different argument. I've said on here multiple times that PPE has been a major problem but at the same time recognised the huge and understandable challenge globally.

If the government had followed the advise of it's own report last year or learned from the failings and recommendations of Exercise Cygnus plus any number of missed opportunities ranging from years ago to as late as February we would not have to rely on the currently overstretch global market for PPE.

[TVC15]

Needs next of kin or resident themselves if able, to sign though

Guessing the community nurses are arranging this via the owners and where residents are able to sign they do and where not not sure what is happening.
I just know that’s what our local community nurses have been doing recently.

[taio]

If the government had followed the advise of it's own report last year or learned from the failings and recommendations of Exercise Cygnus plus any number of missed opportunities ranging from years ago to as late as February we would not have to rely on the currently overstretch global market for PPE.

Yes more PPE should have been stockpiled. I'm sure this will be a key lesson learned.

[Loyalclaret]

Some areas of Spain may be back to a new normal by late June. Areas have to go through 4 phases.

Even after that it's doesn't mean international travel will be allowes

[taio]

Guessing the community nurses are arranging this via the owners and where residents are able to sign they do and where not not sure what is happening.
I just know that’s what our local community nurses have been doing recently.

Where someone doesn't have capacity it will be a best interests decsion in accordance with the mental capacity act.

[TVC15]

As 85% of care homes are privately owned wasnt it the care homes owners who were responsible for ordering and having plentiful stocks of PPE,

Why is the government getting all the flack.
The flack they could take is not taking it seriously enough early doors and not giving a warning to care homes.

Whether they are private or not how do they get hold of it if it’s not available ?
Why would a privately owned care home stock enough PPE to cover something as unpredictable and unprecedented as this.
It’s up to central government to plan for pandemic and as part of this they have to plan for public and private sectors - you can’t just let them fend for themselves during a national state of emergency.
And that doesn’t necessarily mean that the contingency plans are stockpiles of PPE sat in warehouses in case of the next pandemic. It also means putting in place the processes and supply lines so that care homes (and everyone else) know what to do in that situation.

[Damo]

If the government had followed the advise of it's own report last year or learned from the failings and recommendations of Exercise Cygnus plus any number of missed opportunities ranging from years ago to as late as February we would not have to rely on the currently overstretch global market for PPE.

Exercise Cygnus was carried out by the NHS.
Lack of ventilators, ppe and space for dead bodies were highlighted as being an issue.
Since then its army of procurement managers have failed to invest in ventilators, ppe and mortuary space.
The NHS still continues to waste millions of pounds per year on non jobs like arts curator's, diversity managers and PR staff.
It's all well and good blaming the government because you dont like them, but unless we work out what really went wrong then this will happen over and over again.
The NHS is a bloated mess, that needs urgent reform.
People need to stop treating it like a holy institution

[Grumps]

Whether they are private or not how do they get hold of it if it’s not available ?
Why would a privately owned care home stock enough PPE to cover something as unpredictable and unprecedented as this.
It’s up to central government to plan for pandemic and as part of this they have to plan for public and private sectors - you can’t just let them fend for themselves during a national state of emergency.
And that doesn’t necessarily mean that the contingency plans are stockpiles of PPE sat in warehouses in case of the next pandemic. It also means putting in place the processes and supply lines so that care homes (and everyone else) know what to do in that situation.

The one I have first hand knowledge of, ordered the PPE as soon as they saw what was happening, that has been stocked up by government provided equipment which meant they have never been short
Just needs good management, same as hospitals, which is why East lancs Trust hasn't had the same problems as elsewhere.

[mdd2]

Damo has a good point, but it is a bloated mess in part from interference by lawyers, politicians and certain well educated and ill informed members of the public who because they want to be fully informed about everything insist that everyone else does too.
I do think the bloated mess Damo refers to needs to be left alone as we have had far too many reforms since the Labour Government of 1974-79 kicked it off followed by umpteen rehashes from Thatcher Major, Blair, Cameron.
The best thing that could now happen is to keep the retired staff on, keep the Nightingale hospitals open and get through the back log of work that needs to be done by making some hospitals or parts of hospitals where Covid-19 free patients can be treated by Covid-19 free staff.

[Taffy on the wing]

What people also need to take note of is that many care home residents have active DNRs attached to them
It was said very early on that these people, if having Covid-19 would be better cared for in the homes, as nothing would be done in hospital, so could be looked after, with dignity, at the place they call home.

Apologist of the year finalist!......congratulations on your devotion to Boris.

[Taffy on the wing]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/28/uk/uk-de ... index.html
Go on let's hear how they're doing a great job again..........great job of messing around with figures!

[Elizabeth]

I agree that how a care home is managed could be a big factor in the number of deaths in that care home. I know of two examples to support my opinion.
I doubt the government bashers would be interested though.

[tiger76]

Trouble brewing in Germany?

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/merkel-faces- ... 8986.html

[tiger76]

Coronavirus: Royal Navy submarine lockdown party captain sacked.

A nuclear powered submarine commander who allowed his crew to hold a barbecue party has been sacked.

Cdr Jonathan Lewis, captain of hunter-killer submarine HMS Trenchant, allowed the party during the lockdown at Devonport dockyard in Plymouth.

A video shared on social media showed the crew dancing and laughing on the dockside after the submarine returned to the city for repairs.

The captain has been relieved of his command following a Royal Navy probe.

Naval sources told the BBC that Cdr Lewis had been advised both by his senior officers on shore and some of his own officers on the submarine not to go ahead with the party.

A senior defence source said it was one of a number of instances that had undermined trust and credibility in his command.

Cdr Lewis will remain in the Royal Navy but will be assigned another role.

[Paul Waine]

Trouble brewing in Germany?

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/merkel-faces- ... 8986.html

Thanks, tiger76. I wonder what lessons we can take from observing and comparing Germany with other countries?

[Paul Waine]

Looks like we will all by advised/recommended (but not "required") to wear "face covering" (but, not "medical masks") when shopping and using public transport.

Britain to stockpile masks for public to use while shopping and on transport

The Times online, 5pm today.

Britain is to build a stockpile of face masks for people to wear while shopping and on public transport, it was announced, after Nicola Sturgeon pre-empted what is expected to be UK-wide guidance.

The Scottish first minister confirmed that the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) had concluded that covering the face with a scarf or other cloth mask would probably help to slow the transmission of coronavirus in confined spaces as she recommended that people wore them “as a precautionary measure”.

Ms Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, said that face coverings were “not a substitute” for social distancing and hygiene rules, but guidance issued by the Scottish government advises that they “may provide some level of protection against transmission to other people in close proximity” in situations where keeping two metres apart is difficult.

Boris Johnson is preparing to make similar recommendations after receiving advice from Sage last week, but has delayed an announcement because of concerns that even advising cloth coverings might prompt people to buy up medical-grade masks needed by the NHS.

While medical masks protect the wearer when worn correctly, cloth coverings do not. Instead, they reduce the risk of infecting others by catching the droplets which spread disease. Experts have estimated that if used widely they could help to control the outbreak, and are now recommended by many other countries as part of measures to ease lockdowns.

***********************

Just first 5 paras of article. I expect it will be in print edition tomorrow.

[AndrewJB]

Within a few days we'll be testing 100K people per day, or was that another attention grabbing lie to be conveniently forgotten like the rest?

[tiger76]

Within a few days we'll be testing 100K people per day, or was that another attention grabbing lie to be conveniently forgotten like the rest?

I'll be if we're carrying out 100k tests per day,we may reach 100k capacity in a few days,but that wasn't what was promised,and what's the point of having 100k capacity if it's not being utilised,good factual article by the BBC here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51943612

This snippet caught my eye:However, on 22 April, Dominic Raab, standing in for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, said: "I've set the goal of 100,000 tests a day by the end of this month and I'm delighted to say that the expansion of capacity is ahead of plans, even though demand has, thus far, been lower than expected."

Rightly or wrongly that statement has given the government wriggle room if the 100k isn't hit,as if they reach capacity,they'll claim the target's been met,is this disingenuous absolutely,but that's how politicians absolve themselves of blame,whatever party their representing.

The press were more detailed and rigorous in their questioning today,let's hope this continues,as the government need to be held to account.

[AndrewJB]

I'll be if we're carrying out 100k tests per day,we may reach 100k capacity in a few days,but that wasn't what was promised,and what's the point of having 100k capacity if it's not being utilised,good factual article by the BBC here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51943612

This snippet caught my eye:However, on 22 April, Dominic Raab, standing in for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, said: "I've set the goal of 100,000 tests a day by the end of this month and I'm delighted to say that the expansion of capacity is ahead of plans, even though demand has, thus far, been lower than expected."

Rightly or wrongly that statement has given the government wriggle room if the 100k isn't hit,as if they reach capacity,they'll claim the target's been met,is this disingenuous absolutely,but that's how politicians absolve themselves of blame,whatever party their representing.

The press were more detailed and rigorous in their questioning today,let's hope this continues,as the government need to be held to account.

There's no wriggle room when in the beginning of April they said we'd have 100K tests per day.

[Taffy on the wing]

Trouble brewing in Germany?

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/merkel-faces- ... 8986.html

Nothing to see here really!........She's just being sensible, why spoil a good thing by jumping the gun?

[Grumps]

Apologist of the year finalist!......congratulations on your devotion to Boris.

Where on earth is there anything in my post that supports Boris or the tory party
Your post is offensive both to the residents of care homes and the fantastic people who work in them
You should be ashamed, but that takes brains, and a sense of decency. You seem to be missing both.

[taio]

Within a few days we'll be testing 100K people per day, or was that another attention grabbing lie to be conveniently forgotten like the rest?

The 100k figure was a serious and ambitious goal. And I think the government will achieve it or get very close to achieving it (say within a just a few days). If they don't they are going to be heavily criticised. But if they do I'm sure you and the others who have been critical will hold their hands up, say they got it wrong and give praise for delivering against an ambitious goal (to the extent that some thought it was undeliverable, the government was over-promising, or it was an attention grabbing lie).

[Zlatan]

Looks like we will all by advised/recommended (but not "required") to wear "face covering" (but, not "medical masks") when shopping and using public transport.

Britain to stockpile masks for public to use while shopping and on transport

The Times online, 5pm today.

Britain is to build a stockpile of face masks for people to wear while shopping and on public transport, it was announced, after Nicola Sturgeon pre-empted what is expected to be UK-wide guidance.

The Scottish first minister confirmed that the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) had concluded that covering the face with a scarf or other cloth mask would probably help to slow the transmission of coronavirus in confined spaces as she recommended that people wore them “as a precautionary measure”.

Ms Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, said that face coverings were “not a substitute” for social distancing and hygiene rules, but guidance issued by the Scottish government advises that they “may provide some level of protection against transmission to other people in close proximity” in situations where keeping two metres apart is difficult.

Boris Johnson is preparing to make similar recommendations after receiving advice from Sage last week, but has delayed an announcement because of concerns that even advising cloth coverings might prompt people to buy up medical-grade masks needed by the NHS.

While medical masks protect the wearer when worn correctly, cloth coverings do not. Instead, they reduce the risk of infecting others by catching the droplets which spread disease. Experts have estimated that if used widely they could help to control the outbreak, and are now recommended by many other countries as part of measures to ease lockdowns.

***********************

Just first 5 paras of article. I expect it will be in print edition tomorrow.

It’s about time to be honest

[Grumps]

The 100k figure was a serious and ambitious goal. And I think the government will achieve it or get very close to achieving it (say within a just a few days). If they don't they are going to be heavily criticised. But if they do I'm sure you and the others who have been critical will hold their hands up, say they got it wrong and give praise for delivering against an ambitious goal (to the extent that some thought it was undeliverable, the government was over-promising, or it was an attention grabbing lie).

It was an ambitious target, but to get people focused you should always set a high figure. Whilst aiming for 100k,they might reach 90k.had they set a target of 80k,we might only have reached 70k.
Its been a well known practice in business for years.

[AndrewJB]

The 100k figure was a serious and ambitious goal. And I think the government will achieve it or get very close to achieving it (say within a just a few days). If they don't they are going to be heavily criticised. But if they do I'm sure you and the others who have been critical will hold their hands up, say they got it wrong and give praise for delivering against an ambitious goal (to the extent that some thought it was undeliverable, the government was over-promising, or it was an attention grabbing lie).

It’s not the government failure that is the story, but your prediction of how I’ll react to it?

I didn’t make the claim of 100K tests per day. The government - who have been in power for ten years, and bear full responsibility for the state of the NHS made the claim. A government full of Diane Abbott’s would do far better than the clown show we’ve seen so far.

[evensteadiereddie]

Exercise Cygnus was carried out by the NHS.
Lack of ventilators, ppe and space for dead bodies were highlighted as being an issue.
Since then its army of procurement managers have failed to invest in ventilators, ppe and mortuary space.
The NHS still continues to waste millions of pounds per year on non jobs like arts curator's, diversity managers and PR staff.
It's all well and good blaming the government because you dont like them, but unless we work out what really went wrong then this will happen over and over again.
The NHS is a bloated mess, that needs urgent reform.
People need to stop treating it like a holy institution

A bloated mess - what absolute Tory ********.

Just as a matter of interest, where would this "army" of procurement managers have found the money, given the lack of funding from your government over the last ten years, to invest in ventilators, PPE and mortuary space ?
Ringo - style - out of thin air ?

Have you got figures for the total number of curator's (sic), diversity managers and PR staff and their salaries - I wouldn't mind betting they are insignificant in the grand, multi-billion pound scheme of things.

Tories now add the NHS to the long list of others to blame for a disastrous death toll. Who'd have thought it ?