Covid-19

[Paul Waine]

Anyone got a link for "Independent SAGE" - David King's 12-strong group that is setting themselves up to "compete" with SAGE?

Apparently on YouTube today, sometime.

Apparently "Independent SAGE" will put their scientific advice into the public domain.

[Devils_Advocate]

Anyone got a link for "Independent SAGE" - David King's 12-strong group that is setting themselves up to "compete" with SAGE?

Apparently on YouTube today, sometime.

Apparently "Independent SAGE" will put their scientific advice into the public domain.

It was live this morning and I watched a very brief bit through Twitter. Will find the link and add to this post as will hopefully have a replay of the whole meeting

Try this https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqqwC5 ... Q/featured

[AndrewJB]

Hi Andrew, can we assume that Apple and Google already know all they need to know about us, so their "covid-19" contact app doesn't need to include this additional feature?

I've no idea, btw, what you mean by "going against science" - have Apple and Google found a way to build apps that don't use science?

The data doesn’t need to be centrally stored - and that is the science they’re going against. No other comparable countries are doing this. It has all the hallmarks of Cummings’ ideas of using big data to manipulate and control.

[tiger76]

If true this is worrying,but sadly not surprising.

Italy death toll may be far higher, report suggests.

Italy may be relaxing its lockdown but the death toll from coronavirus could be far higher than has currently been reported, a new report says.

The Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) says thousands of fatalities not officially attributed to Covid-19 could have been caused by the virus.

The official death toll in Italy stands at 28,884, the second highest total in the world after the US. But from 21 February, when the first Covid-19 deaths occurred in Italy, until March 31, nationwide deaths were up 39% compared to the average of the past five years.

Of the 25,354 excess deaths during the period, coronavirus was registered as the official cause for 13,710, leaving around 11,600 unaccounted for.

ISTAT said these people may either have died of coronavirus without being tested or that the extra pressure on the health system meant they died of other causes they were not treated for.

[Taffy on the wing]

And the population density in Singapore is 21,646 people per square mile. Deaths 18. Ponder that.

Or Seoul South Korea.....45000 per sq mile = 2 Deaths....

[tiger76]

Hancock addressing the privacy concerns at the briefing.It's up to you if you believe him or not.

Hancock says NHS app will respect privacy concerns

Hancock says the NHS track and trace app will take “full consideration" of privacy concerns, which have been raised in relation to the approach in the UK and elsewhere.

He says "proximity information" will be logged securely on people's mobile phones, and adds that the Bluetooth signal used to register people's interactions is designed to conserve battery life.

Tweaking the now-familiar slogan, Hancock urges Isle of Wight residents to "stay at home, install the app, protect the NHS and save lives".

[tiger76]

Analysis: Test numbers prompt questions

Nick Triggle

Health Correspondent

The number of tests done or sent out via the home-testing service yesterday was around 85,000. That is of course below the 100,000 target set by Matt Hancock.

But the government argues we should not expect 100,000 tests a day to be achieved. The important thing is that there is capacity for more so tests are available if people need them.

There is some logic to that - Germany is currently using just over half its capacity. But in Germany, the number of new infections is lower than it is here.

The government has certainly succeeded in rapidly increasing the number of tests, but there are still questions about whether the system is as efficient and easy-to-access as ministers would like it to be. We should pay close attention to what NHS staff and the care sector is saying about testing in the coming days.

It seems the government has finally seen sense and dropped the pointless 100k target,and they're concentrating on capacity and access,the coming days will tell whether this will prove more effective or not.

[taio]

People probably need to read the story rather than making random comments. No one is saying that a tracing app is a bad idea, but security experts are pointing out that the way the UK is developing one is taking and storing all the info centrally whereas it’s possible to leave the info on the phone and let the phone do the processing require to look at which other phones it has been near and therefore who needs contacting. The government is taking and storing data it doesn’t need to in order to develop a tracing app and that is what the security experts are flagging.

It has just been confirmed this is not the case.

[RingoMcCartney]

I am enjoying this concept that you can't validly criticise something unless one person has all of the facts and figures.

I'm looking forward to Ringo deleting his various criticisms on here or naming the one person who had all of the facts and figures about the Labour Party, Brexit, etc.

Brexit was a perfect example of what I'm talking about.

There were many on here who claimed they had "evidence" that leaving the EU would be bad for the UK. I pointed out that, at that stage we hadn't left yet, their view was not "evidence" but an opinion based on incomplete information. Which is conjecture.

Attempting to compare individual unique countries with all sorts of vastly differing variables , especially while we're still in the midst of the unprecedented global pandemic. Is quite simply a fools errand.

I know people who've recently morphed from being experts in global markets and world trade deals , to epidemiology and virology. Dont like to be reminded but, none of you have a tiny fraction the information required to make an informed and objective judgement as to which country has done relatively well or otherwise.

Apologies for the reality check.

[RingoMcCartney]

But you only wanted to use the available facts (your words not mine).

That's why I emphasised the word "suspected". Obesity, something, that the UK "leads" the way in , in western Europe may mean that we suffer disproportionately more deaths compared to a country with very low levels of obesity.

Lots of ifs, buts and maybe. Now is not the time to judge.

Unless, that is, you're the guy with all the information looking back on the 2020 Covid-19 global pandemic as we speak.

[Paul Waine]

The data doesn’t need to be centrally stored - and that is the science they’re going against. No other comparable countries are doing this. It has all the hallmarks of Cummings’ ideas of using big data to manipulate and control.

My point is that if you sign up to Apple or Google services you also sign up to give them access to lots and lots of your personal data.

So far as the NHS covid-19 tracker app, did you listen to Matt Hancock on today's briefing? Are you now re-assured?

[NewClaret]

It was live this morning and I watched a very brief bit through Twitter. Will find the link and add to this post as will hopefully have a replay of the whole meeting

Try this https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqqwC5 ... Q/featured

Was Cummings at that one, making everyone feel uncomfortable?

[aggi]

The data doesn’t need to be centrally stored - and that is the science they’re going against. No other comparable countries are doing this. It has all the hallmarks of Cummings’ ideas of using big data to manipulate and control.

France are doing it. I'm not sure whether that is because they want to do additional analysis or whether it's due to their mistrust of Google/Apple.

It's not necessarily a bad idea, it's just that the people involved in the UK haven't historically been on the side of confidentiality and data protection.

[Devils_Advocate]

Was Cummings at that one, making everyone feel uncomfortable?

No but I believe in the interest of balance Alistair Campbell was allowed to join

[NewClaret]

No but I believe in the interest of balance Alistair Campbell was allowed to join

Gold

[aggi]

Brexit was a perfect example of what I'm talking about.

There were many on here who claimed they had "evidence" that leaving the EU would be bad for the UK. I pointed out that, at that stage we hadn't left yet, their view was not "evidence" but an opinion based on incomplete information. Which is conjecture.

Attempting to compare individual unique countries with all sorts of vastly differing variables , especially while we're still in the midst of the unprecedented global pandemic. Is quite simply a fools errand.

I know people who've recently morphed from being experts in global markets and world trade deals , to epidemiology and virology. Dont like to be reminded but, none of you have a tiny fraction the information required to make an informed and objective judgement as to which country has done relatively well or otherwise.

Apologies for the reality check.

But you do know enough to be able to praise their reponse?

Surely if people don't know enough to criticise then they don't know enough to praise? Why are you an exception?

[NewClaret]

The data doesn’t need to be centrally stored - and that is the science they’re going against. No other comparable countries are doing this. It has all the hallmarks of Cummings’ ideas of using big data to manipulate and control.

“All the hallmarks of Cummings’ ideas of using big data to manipulate and control”

Cummings is like all all the Bond villains rolled in to one, isn’t he?

[RingoMcCartney]

But you do know enough to be able to praise their reponse?

Surely if people don't know enough to criticise then they don't know enough to praise? Why are you an exception?

I'm like the majority in this country, as usual. I feel overall the government has handled the unprecedented crisis well. I'm not comparing their performance to any other country not even to Scotland. That, given I dont have all the necessary information to make an objective and fair comparison, would be premature. Especially as we're still in the middle of it.

Time may prove that I was misguided to judge our government's performance as good. Once all the relevant data has been gathered and processed only then, can a judgement be made.

Only in the fullness of time.

[RingoMcCartney]

“All the hallmarks of Cummings’ ideas of using big data to manipulate and control”

Cummings is like all all the Bond villains rolled in to one, isn’t he?

I believe the bespectacled, evil genius even has a cat to, sinisterly, stroke.

[NewClaret]

I believe the bespectacled, evil genius even has a cat to, sinisterly, stroke.

Is this big pussy he sinisterly strokes called Boris?

[Paul Waine]

It was live this morning and I watched a very brief bit through Twitter. Will find the link and add to this post as will hopefully have a replay of the whole meeting

Try this https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqqwC5 ... Q/featured

Thanks for providing the link, DA.

I've viewed the post-"Independent SAGE" press conference. It seems a number of the journalists lost interest and had were not there when called to ask their questions. I also learnt that the "scientists" didn't have much science to provide and input into their meeting.

Then I watched the intro to the Independent SAGE meeting, discovered who the 12 (or so) scientists were - several from UCL - most had not met each other before - then learnt that David King only wanted to talk about from where the UK is today - and not to re-examine any past scientific advice over the past 2 or 3 months.

I'll look out for press reports.

[evensteadiereddie]

No axe to grind here but, of course, "in the fullness of time" excuses will be made and, even worse, the most serious, disastrous errors of judgement will be swept under the carpet.
Cummings is neither evil nor a genius but it's pretty widely recognised, even in the Tory party, that he holds far too much influence over Johnson.

[NewClaret]

I'm like the majority in this country, as usual. I feel overall the government has handled the unprecedented crisis well. I'm not comparing their performance to any other country not even to Scotland. That, given I dont have all the necessary information to make an objective and fair comparison, would be premature. Especially as we're still in the middle of it.

Time may prove that I was misguided to judge our government's performance as good. Once all the relevant data has been gathered and processed only then, can a judgement be made.

Only in the fullness of time.

Oddly enough, was chatting to three mates today from a variety of political allegiances. Have spoken to them all once during lockdown, early doors. They were all happy then, but was curious if that may have changed today. It hadn’t, but all said the same as you - will come out in the wash.

[CombatClaret]

85k tests on 65k people today.

Will the papers and news media give a big fanfare when we hit 100k AGAIN? I hope the government has enough stamps for that.

[evensteadiereddie]

Aye, Newclaret, a whitewash I suspect. i can't really see this government, maybe any government, being honest enough to look at the mistakes that have been made and the waste of human life caused by them.
They'll concentrate on what's gone well, write the disasters off as "unprecedented" and probably learn nothing.

[Grumps]

85k tests on 65k people today.

Will the papers and news media give a big fanfare when we hit 100k AGAIN? I hope the government has enough stamps for that.

Today? Or yesterday?

[taio]

Aye, Newclaret, a whitewash I suspect. i can't really see this government, maybe any government, being honest enough to look at the mistakes that have been made and the waste of human life caused by them.
They'll concentrate on what's gone well, write the disasters off as "unprecedented" and probably learn nothing.

There's absolutely no chance there won't be an inquiry that identifies mistakes made and lessons to be learned.

[martin_p]

Well bless my soul Public Health has nothing to do with health care.

Yep. Because if people don’t get sick because the government acted speedily they never get near the healthcare system.

[martin_p]

It has just been confirmed this is not the case.

Has it really? Where?

[taio]

Has it really? Where?

At the briefing and in the news.

[martin_p]

At the briefing and in the news.

Ok, well I’ve read the NHS defending the fact they’re storing the data centrally, so what did they say in the briefing?

[taio]

Ok, well I’ve read the NHS defending the fact they’re storing the data centrally, so what did they say in the briefing?

Can't remember precisely. Along the lines of highest level of privacy signed off by national cyber security centre; the app doesn't hold personal information; and the data is stored on an individual's phone. If symptomatic a person can opt-in to be connected centrally to NHS support.

[Devils_Advocate]

They are making all the right noises about the app and maybe the pressure they have come under from the tech science experts and the political journalists and commentators has had its influence

What we will see now as its rolled out for a trial is more scientific scrutiny and a better view of their contractual commitments around privacy and if the govt are true to their word then Im sure confidence and grow

Until ive seen some independent analysis and review I'll reserve judgement for now and watch this space

[Paul Waine]

They are making all the right noises about the app and maybe the pressure they have come under from the tech science experts and the political journalists and commentators has had its influence

What we will see now as its rolled out for a trial is more scientific scrutiny and a better view of their contractual commitments around privacy and if the govt are true to their word then Im sure confidence and grow

Until ive seen some independent analysis and review I'll reserve judgement for now and watch this space

Hi DA, do you really think that any group of IT developers could have been heading in one direction this morning and be releasing something totally different at 5pm today? Reports are that this app has been developed by NHSX. Brilliant if this is a bunch of NHS IT developers.... even more "brilliant" if NHSX has bought in some experienced, external, IT experience. I wonder what NHSX mean when they say “We’re working very closely with Apple and Google, this is not a competition.” as quoted in The Times report, below.

Extracts from article published by The Times online at 5pm today

"Developers insisted that privacy was “at the heart” of the app and even if hackers broke into a central database they would not be able to find out who was using it because only anonymised codes would be visible."

However, the Health Service Journal reported that “wobbly” performance meant the app had not passed privacy tests required for the NHS’s own app library.

A trial begins tonight on the Isle of Wight with NHS staff, and on Thursday a campaign will urge the island’s 140,000 residents to download it. The pilot is designed to iron out technical problems and test how the app links to a manual contact-tracing system before a national launch this month.

Each user is given a code and using Bluetooth the app collects a log of which other users it has been near and for how long, which is stored on the phone. If someone tests positive, their contacts are uploaded and can be automatically alerted without officials knowing anyone’s identity.

Mr Gould said that when the app was first used “some things might not work, there will inevitably be unintended consequences when we launch it, it won’t be perfect, it’ll definitely evolve. We’ll look to improve it and add features over time. If we think there is a better way of doing what we need to do we won’t hesitate to change.”

Efforts are under way to make the app interoperable with those being developed in other countries and in a joint venture by Apple and Google. Mr Gould said: “We’re working very closely with Apple and Google, this is not a competition.”

**********************************************

[android]

85k tests on 65k people today.

Will the papers and news media give a big fanfare when we hit 100k AGAIN? I hope the government has enough stamps for that.

Any chance you could explain that Z scores graph you posted yesterday evening?

[AndrewJB]

“All the hallmarks of Cummings’ ideas of using big data to manipulate and control”

Cummings is like all all the Bond villains rolled in to one, isn’t he?

Cummings is a poundshop Machiavelli, but using big data to target ads during elections has serious implications for our democracy. That someone like Cummings has so little respect for democracy judging from his actions so far, and has said to be pushing for data integration between government departments should ring alarm bells for everyone.

[Devils_Advocate]

Hi DA, do you really think that any group of IT developers could have been heading in one direction this morning and be releasing something totally different at 5pm today? Reports are that this app has been developed by NHSX. Brilliant if this is a bunch of NHS IT developers.... even more "brilliant" if NHSX has bought in some experienced, external, IT experience. I wonder what NHSX mean when they say “We’re working very closely with Apple and Google, this is not a competition.” as quoted in The Times report, below.

Extracts from article published by The Times online at 5pm today

"Developers insisted that privacy was “at the heart” of the app and even if hackers broke into a central database they would not be able to find out who was using it because only anonymised codes would be visible."

However, the Health Service Journal reported that “wobbly” performance meant the app had not passed privacy tests required for the NHS’s own app library.

A trial begins tonight on the Isle of Wight with NHS staff, and on Thursday a campaign will urge the island’s 140,000 residents to download it. The pilot is designed to iron out technical problems and test how the app links to a manual contact-tracing system before a national launch this month.

Each user is given a code and using Bluetooth the app collects a log of which other users it has been near and for how long, which is stored on the phone. If someone tests positive, their contacts are uploaded and can be automatically alerted without officials knowing anyone’s identity.

Mr Gould said that when the app was first used “some things might not work, there will inevitably be unintended consequences when we launch it, it won’t be perfect, it’ll definitely evolve. We’ll look to improve it and add features over time. If we think there is a better way of doing what we need to do we won’t hesitate to change.”

Efforts are under way to make the app interoperable with those being developed in other countries and in a joint venture by Apple and Google. Mr Gould said: “We’re working very closely with Apple and Google, this is not a competition.”

**********************************************

No but there has been pressure on for weeks and certain aspects can be tweaked through design and dev so yes where we are today might not have been exactly where we were heading a few weeks ago

Like I said I'll wait and see what the independent experts views are once it is more out in the open. I think thats a reasonable position to take

[Paul Waine]

No but there has been pressure on for weeks and certain aspects can be tweaked through design and dev so yes where we are today might not have been exactly where we were heading a few weeks ago

Like I said I'll wait and see what the independent experts views are once it is more out in the open. I think thats a reasonable position to take

Where's the "pressure on for weeks" been reported? I've only seen this "central database" v "cell phone" mentioned on this mb today and on R4 Today programme this morning.

BTW, there was a question asked in the "Independent SAGE" press conference about the app and data security. The professor responding totally misunderstood the question and provided an answer about US State Governors being better placed for "local" pandemic responses rather then "central" i.e. federal gov't response.

I mention iSAGE because (a) it was today's press question and (b) the professor's response suggested he'd not heard about the issue, hence his misunderstanding shown by his response - oh, and David King and none of the other participants jumped in to answer the question that had been asked. Surely, they can't all have missed the "data security" concerns "for weeks"?

[Devils_Advocate]

Where's the "pressure on for weeks" been reported? I've only seen this "central database" v "cell phone" mentioned on this mb today and on R4 Today programme this morning.

Loads of discussions and articles shared on Twitter for weeks. Im not gonna spend hours searching back through Twitter to try and find them all but I remember one I think I posted on here from the end of April.

I'm not sure you have Twitter but I'll share the thread but I havent got time to copy and paste every post and every article linked.

Again my position is I will be open minded and judge it when I see more info. What is the issue with that approach?

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/stat ... 8260868096

[martin_p]

Where's the "pressure on for weeks" been reported? I've only seen this "central database" v "cell phone" mentioned on this mb today and on R4 Today programme this morning.

The open letter was published on 29th April. If what has been reported above, that sending data to the central database is optional, that could certainly be turned round in those timescales, especially in what is effectively a public beta. Not saying it has, but it’s possible.

[aggi]

I'm like the majority in this country, as usual. I feel overall the government has handled the unprecedented crisis well. I'm not comparing their performance to any other country not even to Scotland. That, given I dont have all the necessary information to make an objective and fair comparison, would be premature. Especially as we're still in the middle of it.

Time may prove that I was misguided to judge our government's performance as good. Once all the relevant data has been gathered and processed only then, can a judgement be made.

Only in the fullness of time.

So praise is ok (even if retrospectively it may not be) but criticism isn't (even if retrospectively it may be)?

I'm just hoping you're not one of those people who has been criticising the WHO, that would be really hypocritical.

[1HappyClaret]

My concern with the app is the Information Commissioner Office are also against a centralised data base and with GDPR so relevant these days it must be a worry for the app. The other issue, although not verified, is the contract for the app did not go to tender but to a friend of Mr Cummings and a nice £250m.

[martin_p]

The open letter was published on 29th April. If what has been reported above, that sending data to the central database is optional, that could certainly be turned round in those timescales, especially in what is effectively a public beta. Not saying it has, but it’s possible.

Further to this it seems that the way the app is designed you need to send info to the central database in order for warning texts to be sent. So if you opt out of doing that no one will be warned if you have symptoms.

[AndrewJB]

I'm like the majority in this country, as usual. I feel overall the government has handled the unprecedented crisis well. I'm not comparing their performance to any other country not even to Scotland. That, given I dont have all the necessary information to make an objective and fair comparison, would be premature. Especially as we're still in the middle of it.

Time may prove that I was misguided to judge our government's performance as good. Once all the relevant data has been gathered and processed only then, can a judgement be made.

Only in the fullness of time.

It’s possible to critique the the time the government wasted between the end of the pandemic model Cygnet, and the arrival of the virus inthe U.K. Four years to address the significant shortcomings highlighted, and nothing appears to have been done. Panorama and the Sunday Times have investigated what took place before the virus hit, and have been fairly damning.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/big ... RPvf3VnwIQ

[jackmiggins]

Bit confused - this morning seem to be people viewing that they’re happy with reduced lockdown as the R value has come down. Might be missing something here, but isn’t this only because of the lockdown?
Personally think that we will need much more stringent isolation rules in place before this can be sanctioned. Otherwise I’m pretty certain R would take off again?

[NewClaret]

Cummings is a poundshop Machiavelli, but using big data to target ads during elections has serious implications for our democracy. That someone like Cummings has so little respect for democracy judging from his actions so far, and has said to be pushing for data integration between government departments should ring alarm bells for everyone.

Seems to have become the pantomime villain for the left. Don’t know him, so can’t really comment, other than to say you shouldn’t believe everything you read in the papers.

Clearly a very clever guy though, whichever way you look at it. Has masterminded two election wins.

[NewClaret]

Bit confused - this morning seem to be people viewing that they’re happy with reduced lockdown as the R value has come down. Might be missing something here, but isn’t this only because of the lockdown?
Personally think that we will need much more stringent isolation rules in place before this can be sanctioned. Otherwise I’m pretty certain R would take off again?

I think there is an acceptance R will increase as lockdown measures are lifted, Jack.

The task the government faces is to lift it slowly enough, and in phases, so that the impact of lifting each restriction can be monitored (and quickly reinstated) if R takes off.

Ultimately, until there is a vaccine/cure, the task of all governments will be finding the balance between allowing people to return to normal life and controlling the death rate/pressure on NHS. Not an enviable job, I have to say.

[evensteadiereddie]

There's absolutely no chance there won't be an inquiry that identifies mistakes made and lessons to be learned.

I doubt it but assuming you're correct the apportion of praise, blame and the need for lesson learning will be interesting, depending upon how "independent" the inquiry may be.

[evensteadiereddie]

Seems to have become the pantomime villain for the left. Don’t know him, so can’t really comment, other than to say you shouldn’t believe everything you read in the papers.

Clearly a very clever guy though, whichever way you look at it. Has masterminded two election wins.

Not just the left - some Tory MPs are have questioned the unelected role he's playing and the huge influence he appears to have on government decisions.
He'll come a cropper one day no doubt.

[NewClaret]

Not just the left - some Tory MPs are have questioned the unelected role he's playing and the huge influence he appears to have on government decisions.
He'll come a cropper one day no doubt.

I get the impression, judging from afar, he has a very unconventional and probably confrontational style. Suspect that rubs up all those cosy “I’ve been elected, don’t you know” politicians the wrong way - maybe more so the stories because they have to interact with him more.

When I said “the left”, I meant the media. But agree, he will have to be very, very careful to survive a full term because they will be watching him from the moment he starts his cornflakes until he second he falls asleep. Imagine the promotion for the Guardian hack that gets the big story on Cummings? I would imagine he’s the type of guy who likes to push the envelope, so quite possible they’ll find some dirt eventually.