Covid-19

[UnderSeige]

"High fives all around for fans of quality science! Our months' long position that hydroxcholorquine+azithromycin+zinc and ivermectin showed strong promise as cheap, effective treatments vs covid-19 now appears to be proven correct.

Of course, up until this point, the media has parroted "junk science" talking points designed to malign and vilify these treatment candidates, very likely on behalf of Big Pharma who can't reap $billions off of them. And in the meantime, millions of sick patients worldwide have likely been denied these drugs as a result". (Chris Martenson) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1plkwhi5KUE
https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/l ... 365090002/

[UnderSeige]

Keep an eye on Spain. They had 1,572 cases today. Their 7 day moving average is now 1,027. This is the highest since the end of May.

Second peak or false alarm?

[bfcjg]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/coronav ... ccine.html
This sort of money isnt invested in duds.

I suggested in May that this vaccine would be a winner.

[dsr]

Does this mean that cases have been under reported prior to this then?

The seven day moving average for the UK cases is little changed over the last week. It has increased from 598 to 628.

Cases have always been underreported. Unless they test everyone at least twice a week, there will be asymptomatic people with no reason to suspect they have coronavirus who are not tested and are not part of the official figures.

[cricketfieldclarets]

[FactualFrank]

Wear glasses and a mask?
You may be entitled to condensation.

[UnderSeige]

Spain is looking dodgy. The daily case rate (7 day average) has almost doubled in the last seven days.

Spain’s coronavirus rate went up three-fold over the last three weeks as its authorities struggle to contain the rash of fresh clusters, Health Ministry data showed on Monday...Over the weekend 4,581 new cases were recorded, bringing the total to 264,836, she added. More than 28,000 people have died..."Where measures have been relaxed is where these clusters appear," Health Minister Salvador Illa said. "We're talking about gatherings of extended family and spaces associated with nightlife." https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/spain ... 07329.html

Spain has identified 5,695 cases of Covid-19 in the last week, up from 2,944 the week before. As a result of outbreaks in Catalonia, up to 96,000 residents of three Catalan towns have been advised to stay at home.

This comes after residents in Barcelona were on Friday advised to leave their home only for essential trips. Local authorities in Spain have been given the power to take emergency measures, such as closing beaches and imposing curfews, if necessary. The UK government is constantly reviewing its Foreign Office advice on where you can travel to (currently,

France and Spain are both ‘green'), and which countries will require quarantine on return (currently, there are no restrictions on France and Spain for travellers from most of the UK, although Scots will have to go into quarantine on return from Spain). https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... stay-home/

[FactualFrank]

I hope the UK are prepared to close the borders if nearby countries start shooting up in rates.

When something like this happens, it's your responsibility to look after your own country and do whatever it takes to stop external cases coming in.

[UnderSeige]

I hope the UK are prepared to close the borders if nearby countries start shooting up in rates.

When something like this happens, it's your responsibility to look after your own country and do whatever it takes to stop external cases coming in.

It just seems to be just Spain at the moment. Scotland still look to be wary and are making people returning from Spain go into quarantine.

A lot of people say that the Cheltenham Festival along with the Liverpool Match and Stereophonics concerts were the catalyst to the spike in April. I wonder if it was more likely the allowing of air passengers to fly in unchallenged from China and Northern Italy and then to board public transport into the cities?

There is a pattern emerging. Recent outdoor events and local spikes are beginning to indicate that outdoor mass events may not be quite the catalyst first thought (but this could yet be proved wrong). The local outbreaks seem to be starting in manufacturing and food processing plants. In particular indoors, cool environments and where employees work close together. The virus then attempts to spread outwards into the community. Especially where the community live close together.

[Grumps]

It just seems to be just Spain at the moment. Scotland still look to be wary and are making people returning from Spain go into quarantine.

A lot of people say that the Cheltenham Festival along with the Liverpool Match and Stereophonics concerts were the catalyst to the spike in April. I wonder if it was more likely the allowing of air passengers to fly in unchallenged from China and Northern Italy and then to board public transport into the cities?

There is a pattern emerging. Recent outdoor events and local spikes are beginning to indicate that outdoor mass events may not be quite the catalyst first thought (but this could yet be proved wrong). The local outbreaks seem to be starting in manufacturing and food processing plants. In particular indoors, cool environments and where employees work close together. The virus then attempts to spread outwards into the community. Especially where the community live close together.

Bournemouth and Southend are difficult to comment on, as most people on the beach will be from other towns and cities
The Liverpool pier head gathering, and the Manchester raves which will have been more local, don't appear to have resulted in spikes. So I would agree outdoor events don't seem to create mass infections

[cricketfieldclarets]

Spain is looking dodgy. The daily case rate (7 day average) has almost doubled in the last seven days.

They need to keep an eye on it but hopefully isolated cases. Also when it’s dropped as much as it has any uptick looks dramatic. 100 more at 100 a day is double. 100 more at 10,000 a day is nothing.

I imagine could be to do with bars opening and brits arriving. But we have to learn from last time.

[UnderSeige]

It's not 100 more. Yesterday's new cases was 1,358. The seven day moving average has doubled in a week.

It's several clusters in the Catalonia region and Barcelona. Nightclubs, bars and restaurants are back in lockdown. They have had a lot of trouble with British covidiots who have been getting drunk and ignoring social distancing rules.

[mdd2]

Bournemouth and Southend are difficult to comment on, as most people on the will be from other towns and cities
The Liverpool pier head gathering, and the Manchester raves which will have been more local, don't appear to have resulted in spikes. So I would agree outdoor events don't seem to create mass infections

That may be different in winter and some spiking may yet to come from the Liverpool and Manchester gatherings

[mdd2]

https://lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/v ... risonGroup

If you want to see how your area compares.

[cricketfieldclarets]

It's not 100 more. Yesterday's new cases was 1,358. The seven day moving average has doubled in a week.

It's several clusters in the Catalonia region and Barcelona. Nightclubs, bars and restaurants are back in lockdown. They have had a lot of trouble with British covidiots who have been getting drunk and ignoring social distancing rules.

Sorry I didnt explain it properly, was just trying to add context at how doubling can sound scary but reality is its still low.

[cricketfieldclarets]

It's several clusters in the Catalonia region and Barcelona. Nightclubs, bars and restaurants are back in lockdown. They have had a lot of trouble with British covidiots who have been getting drunk and ignoring social distancing rules.

And not surprised. Someone I know in Ibiza at the minute sent some videos. Looks normal!!! (With exception of waiters in masks)

[cricketfieldclarets]

In better (more good) news

[UnderSeige]

That may be different in winter and some spiking may yet to come from the Liverpool and Manchester gatherings

Yes that is one of the unknowns so far. Will the virus spread outside on cold days in winter when there is also less light? It won't be good news for football if it does. It will survive on surfaces longer in those conditions. Apparently it can't survive long outdoors when it's light or warm.

Currently it seems to thrive indoors where people are in close proximity to one another. Especially so in cold indoor areas such as food processing plants.

If they were using air conditioning in the clubs and cafes in Spain this would also help the virus to spread.

Not sure about the 'summer mass gatherings'. It's been nearly eight weeks since lockdown started to be released and all the covidiotary started to take place in the UK. You would have expected some sort of spike to be beginning by now. All we have had is a 'grind to halt' in the decline of cases. It looks like UK outbreaks are starting indoors rather than outdoors.

The current Spanish increases started around ten days ago. This is bang on schedule from their release from lockdown with them being two or three weeks ahead of us. France looks slightly dicey but other European countries such as Germany, Italy and Belgium look to be doing OK.

[UnderSeige]

Oxford Vaccine chief reveals the real timescale for a coronavirus jab
Err Um we don't know really.

The chief investigator of the Oxford Vaccine Trial told LBC that newspaper reports that we will have a coronavirus vaccine by Christmas are optimistic. https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/ ... virus-jab/

He seems to be saying that we need another outbreak of Covid to test the vaccine. He also mentions that it is being trialed in the US and Brasil.

[FactualFrank]

Police force announces they won't crack down on shoppers not wearing masks after retailers also said their staff would not intervene

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... masks.html

[dsr]

Police force announces they won't crack down on shoppers not wearing masks after retailers also said their staff would not intervene

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... masks.html

It's such a nonsense law. I was in Wild's with my mother this morning. Under the new law, if we had gone in and stood at the counter and ordered our bacon butties and left, we would have had to wear a mask. If we had gone in a stood at the counter and ordered our bacon butties and sat down at the cafe tables to eat them, we wouldn't have had to wear a mask.

Except I wouldn't have had to wear a mask anyway because she is deaf and lip=reads. She would wear a mask, I wouldn't. In theory.

[UnderSeige]

Police force announces they won't crack down on shoppers not wearing masks after retailers also said their staff would not intervene

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... masks.html

Get ready for the winter lockdown.

[FactualFrank]

Get ready for the winter lockdown.

I got the link as it was shared on Facebook - with the person who shared it saying, "Brilliant news!"

It's difficult to know what these people are thinking. They say the virus was started by government to control people. They say they won't have the vaccine when it becomes available. They say they shouldn't be forced into wearing a mask, even though it's about them not passing it onto others, as opposed to them catching it from anybody else.

Yet, they'll keep their kids off school to avoid something they don't believe is serious.

They're nutters.

[Quicknick]

Keep an eye on Spain. They had 1,572 cases today. Their 7 day moving average is now 1,027. This is the highest since the end of May.

Second peak or false alarm?

False alarm. Down to better and more testing.

[tiger76]

Coronavirus: Scottish deaths fall to 'lowest level' of pandemichttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53485648

We're still getting the odd local outbreak up here, but the worst has passed for now anyway.

They've even put tickets on sale for Hogmanay, that might be optimistic.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... -53500183

[mkmel]

Police force announces they won't crack down on shoppers not wearing masks after retailers also said their staff would not intervene

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... masks.html

And retail staff do not have to wear masks!
Wtf is that about!

Here in the Philippines shop staff wear masks and some also have face shields as well as masks

[FactualFrank]

Here in the Philippines shop staff wear masks and some also have face shields as well as masks

Yes, but overall as a nation, we're a bit thick.

[mdd2]

More than a bit

[bfcmik]

The current Spanish increases started around ten days ago. This is bang on schedule from their release from lockdown with them being two or three weeks ahead of us. France looks slightly dicey but other European countries such as Germany, Italy and Belgium look to be doing OK.

The Spaniards implemented such a strict lockdown that there was almost zero chance of any immunity happening. Once they released/relaxed their rules so that people from different homes could meet each other the natural outcome would be more cases.

[bfcmik]

What seems strange is the death rate per identified case around the world. The UK, France, Netherlands, Belgium and Italy are at more than 1 death per 7 reported/identified cases. Nowhere else gets anywhere close to that ratio - most are around 1 in 20 or more.

[Mala591]

Before booking holiday/work flights it might be prudent to check if your chosen airline sterilise (kill/remove all bacteria and viruses) the recycled cabin air.

[dsr]

What seems strange is the death rate per identified case around the world. The UK, France, Netherlands, Belgium and Italy are at more than 1 death per 7 reported/identified cases. Nowhere else gets anywhere close to that ratio - most are around 1 in 20 or more.

We were notoriously testing very few people when the virus was at its peak and therefore missed probably hundreds of thousands of asymptomatic or mild cases.

[NottsClaret]

What seems strange is the death rate per identified case around the world. The UK, France, Netherlands, Belgium and Italy are at more than 1 death per 7 reported/identified cases. Nowhere else gets anywhere close to that ratio - most are around 1 in 20 or more.

I'd guess it's just because the virus was ripping through those countries before the rest of the world and weren't mass testing as it happened.

For a long time we were only testing people who turned up seriously ill at hospital. Our rate will continue to fall as we continue to do huge numbers of tests and record relatively low deaths. The death rate is 0.6 - 1.0% everywhere.

[cricketfieldclarets]

What seems strange is the death rate per identified case around the world. The UK, France, Netherlands, Belgium and Italy are at more than 1 death per 7 reported/identified cases. Nowhere else gets anywhere close to that ratio - most are around 1 in 20 or more.

I cant see that being anywhere near the true mortality rate tbh

[Blackburn_Claret]

I cant see that being anywhere near the true mortality rate tbh

Why

[bfcjg]

Great praise for our scientists despite our useless politicians.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/u-k-response- ... 03211.html

[tiger76]

Great praise for our scientists despite our useless politicians.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/u-k-response- ... 03211.html

We shouldn't be the UK has often been at the forefront of scientific research, thank heavens for the scientists because the politicians have been about as much use as a chocolate teapot.

This crisis shows that experts do have their place despite what Michael Gove might think.

[UnderSeige]

False alarm. Down to better and more testing.

Is there a link to this? The links in my previous posts said that it was down to several clusters in Catalonia and Barcelona. Spain are actually testing a lot less than the UK. 135,188 per million of the population compared with 202,680 in the UK.

The Spanish authorities are thinking that it is down to nightclubs, cafe's, pubs and possibly overcrowded beaches. They are now shutting down the nightclubs and such and limiting the number of people on beaches. Seems a bit extreme if it's just due to better and more testing.

Spain has posted another 1,357 new cases today.

[UnderSeige]

Coronavirus: Scottish deaths fall to 'lowest level' of pandemichttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53485648

We're still getting the odd local outbreak up here, but the worst has passed for now anyway.

They've even put tickets on sale for Hogmanay, that might be optimistic.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... -53500183

Nicola Sturgeon for UK PM until end of the pandemic.

[tiger76]

Nicola Sturgeon for UK PM until end of the pandemic.

Scotland will probably be independent by then if the polling's anywhere near accurate.

NS hasn't been perfect by any means, and she'll admit that herself, but compared to the WM shambles she shines out like a beacon.

Clear unequivocal advice, and treating the CV with the respect it merits, not blustering and pretending everything's going to be back to normal by Xmas.

[UnderSeige]

And retail staff do not have to wear masks!
Wtf is that about!

Here in the Philippines shop staff wear masks and some also have face shields as well as masks

Philippines Number of cases 72,269 Fatalities: ..1,843.......Population 109 million Total tests:.. 1,216,733
UK Number of cases.........296,377 Fatalities: 45,501........Population 68 million. Total tests: 13,763,289

[UnderSeige]

The Spaniards implemented such a strict lockdown that there was almost zero chance of any immunity happening. Once they released/relaxed their rules so that people from different homes could meet each other the natural outcome would be more cases.

So you expect that to happen in Germany, Italy, Belgium, UK etc?

Spain had 314,631 cases - that is more cases than the UK.

[bfcmik]

Spain had 314,631 cases - that is more cases than the UK.

Started started mass testing much earlier in the cycle than the UK did. UK has now done way more testing, practically 1 test for every 5 people, than any other large country

[cricketfieldclarets]

[cricketfieldclarets]

Why

Just doesnt seem remotely possible.

[UnderSeige]

Started started mass testing much earlier in the cycle than the UK did. UK has now done way more testing, practically 1 test for every 5 people, than any other large country

I'm not sure what you are trying to prove. Is it that the UK has a greater deal of 'herd immunity' than Spain because Spain introduced mass testing earlier and dealt with the virus more effectively?

I think that you might have got it a bit wrong that "Spain started mass testing much earlier in the cycle than the UK did". Both Spain and the UK moved into mass testing around 20th April when much of the April spike had already taken place. Spain also had problems with early testing kits that they had bought from China.

Spain started mass testing towards the end of April. Prior to this they were doing an average of 200,000 per week.

Spain passes 200,000 Covid-19 cases, as mass testing is introduced. 20 April 2020http://www.surinenglish.com/national/20 ... 32755.html

The UK also moved into mass testing at the end of April. From 140,000 per week around the 20th April, 210,000 by 27th Apr. May 1st was the day that the press were reporting that the UK had first breached 100,000 cases in a day.

Coronavirus: Target reached as UK tests pass 100,000 a day May 1st 2020
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52508836

Spain have carried out 6,320,836 tests so far (135,188 per million of the population). The UK have carried out 13,763,289(202,677 per million of the population). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[UnderSeige]

More on the Spain situation

Spain to cull 90,000 mink after farmworkers test positive for COVID-19

Authorities in northern Spain have said that over 90,000 mink must be culled at a farm after around 90 animals tested positive for the coronavirus....The region's chief of agriculture and environment, Joaquin Olona, said there is no evidence of whether the virus was transmitted from the workers to the animals or the other way around.

"We are absolutely certain that the virus is present in these animals and community transmission between animals is taking place," Olona said, according to Spanish private news agency Europa Press. He added the goal of the culling was to avoid "risks to public health."

While previous studies have found that COVID-19 is contagious among some animals, like cats and dogs, far less is known about the possibility of animal-to-human transmission and researchers are looking into the subject. https://www.euronews.com/2020/07/17/cor ... t-positive

[UnderSeige]

More on Possible Spanish second spike.

It looks like the virus is starting to spread in the Andalusia region in the South. The last few days has seen a spike in the Catalonia region in the North East. Marbella, Malaga and Almeria (tourist regions) are all becoming a worry.

COSTA HELL SOL Thousands of Brits on holiday in Spain face threat of quarantine on return – as country sees coronavirus cases TRIPLE https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12188250/ ... uarantine/

"Spain wrestles with fresh wave of coronavirus as tourists return" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... -tourists/.

Spain could be taken off safe travel list within days as coronavirus cases spike
The country has been hit with a fresh outbreak of the virus with cases tripling since lockdown measures were lifted. It means anyone who goes there will need to quarantine for 14 days when they return. On Monday (July 20), Spain recorded 4,581 new cases from the weekend period with 201 local outbreaks. https://www.hertfordshiremercury.co.uk/ ... el-4351513

[cricketfieldclarets]

More on Possible Spanish second spike.

It looks like the virus is starting to spread in the Andalusia region in the South. The last few days has seen a spike in the Catalonia region in the North East. Marbella, Malaga and Almeria (tourist regions) are all becoming a worry.

COSTA HELL SOL Thousands of Brits on holiday in Spain face threat of quarantine on return – as country sees coronavirus cases TRIPLE https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12188250/ ... uarantine/

"Spain wrestles with fresh wave of coronavirus as tourists return" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... -tourists/.

Seen videos from someone i know in ibiza yesterday. Looks like last summer!

[Mala591]

Can anyone point me to any reliable scientific evidence that Covid transmission is likely in supermarkets and shops.