Three Tier Lockdown

[CrosspoolClarets]

Reminder too re: ICU beds, even at R1 (which we are now above) ICU beds will fill at a constant rate, it can be 6-7 weeks for patient recovery.

So if you achieve R=1 when 100 people a week are being put in ICU then week you have 100 in ICU, next week 2 its 200, week 3 it's 300, week 4 it's 400 etc.
To clear beds takes a long lag time and ideally a reclining R rate.
And we're above R=1 one and growing fast. Remember too it's not death or fine, it can cause long lasting problems. And if you'd rather see the NHS dealing with non-Covid issues like cancer etc. The fastest way to do that would be to implement a Circuit Breaker lockdown for a set period. Then the normal procedures can take place while the rates slowly climb again from a very low number.

You may say that's just kicking the can down the road, yes it is, until this shower sorts out an effective track and trace system or a vaccine is put into public use.

It CAN take that long for recovery from ICU but the median LOS (mean is inappropriate) is in the 5-20 day range depending on which set of data or study you choose. I’ve seen lots of data the public aren’t privy to, and I’ve helped a few hospitals to model ICU capacity and demand, the figures I tend to see are in the 1-2 week bracket, not 6-7 weeks, those are the outliers. Obviously I can’t go into details.

When talking about overall capacity as in the above post, we have to look at aggregates, not individual patients.

The broad point I agree with though, its just that when correcting the bed figures it makes the circuit break argument more 50/50. Personally I would support Tier1-3 nationwide and local decisions made by local NHS leaders and council chiefs to go further, all the way up to a local circuit break or full local lockdown. Local NHS bed availability would play a big part in that. Nobody with any sense proposes a national lockdown - why bankrupt loads of businesses in, say, Cornwall, when their viral levels are very low? Similarly, why lock them down when their hospital bed status is OK?

Starmer knows this of course - that’s why I think he is being opportunistic.

That way, we save most of the lives we can, while most of the country can continue at normal (pandemic rule of 6 normal) economic and social levels.

[Wellsy1882]

Tier 3 imminent?

[CFS]

Yup afraid so guys.

[Wile E Coyote]

nobody claps for nhs anymore, most just get ****** and stick two fingers up . and that's why we are due another lengthy lockdown.

[ClaretDiver]

I believe that, reading several reports today, that BJ could sign off on Manchester and Lancashire will be moved to Tier 3 later today. How in the hell the North East is not included in that I will never know!

[TheFamilyCat]

I believe that, reading several reports today, that BJ could sign off on Manchester and Lancashire will be moved to Tier 3 later today. How in the hell the North East is not included in that I will never know!

What's changed since Monday to change the tier? Changing things so soon just makes it look like something else they've got wrong.

[ClaretDiver]

What's changed since Monday to change the tier? Changing things so soon just makes it look like something else they've got wrong.

Agreed but I think there have been discussions going on in the background to determine whether they should be in Tier 3. Evidently Gold Commander signed off on it last night that things were bad enough after all.

[arise_sir_charge]

Agreed but I think there have been discussions going on in the background to determine whether they should be in Tier 3. Evidently Gold Commander signed off on it last night that things were bad enough after all.

This is right, we should have been Tier 3 on Monday but the likes of Andy Burnham were fighting it and so discussions had to continue. As early as Monday night the LET we’re running articles suggesting that our Tier 2 was merely a stay of execution.

[claret2018]

So the advice is changing on a weekly basis now. Is anyone still taking any notice?

[martin_p]

So the advice is changing on a weekly basis now. Is anyone still taking any notice?

I would hope so! If the majority aren’t this is going to last a long, long time.

[Grumps]

I would hope so! If the majority aren’t this is going to last a long, long time.

Nearly everyone breaks the rules one way or another, from what I've seen

[aggi]

I can't see Serco sorting out track and trace before this things runs its course or we get a vaccine. It's a private company, they're making vast amounts of cash, handed out by pals in government. Where's the incentive to get it working? It won't make them any richer.

I guess they could use the contractual penalties for underperformance.

Oh, hang on ‘Contractual penalties are often unenforceable under English law so they were not included in test and trace contracts with Serco or Sitel’- Helen Whatley, Health Minister

[SingaporeClarets]

This is right, we should have been Tier 3 on Monday but the likes of Andy Burnham were fighting it and so discussions had to continue. As early as Monday night the LET we’re running articles suggesting that our Tier 2 was merely a stay of execution.

Burnham thinks the whole UK can go into an indefinite lockdown paid for with the massive invisible surplus we have in our countries finances.

Given we know Boris makes last minute decisions, wouldn't agreeing to tier 3 in the interim make sense, only once the NHS nationally is on the brink of collapse will a national lockdown happen.

Burnham's playing games hoping Boris will give in even though it isn't going to happen anytime soon while the virus spreads in Manchester under conditions which even the CMO has said that even tier 3 is not good enough to contain. Listening to the sound of his own voice on TV is not helping.

Burnham should just agree to Tier 3 and then campaign with all local leaders for a national lockdown instead of wasting precious time in at least introducing some stricter measures. If Burnham agrees to Tier 3 next week after the **** hits the fan in the local hospitals then he's as guilty as Boris for sitting back and waiting and have learnt nothing from the first lockdown not only in the UK but in Italy and Spain.

The sooner people realise that we wasted our first and only chance at lockdown with financial compensation the better. Future lockdowns will not have the same financial backing and that's why there is no national lockdown forthcoming and contrary Keir knows that if he was the PM with empty pockets he would do the same.

I think what could be one outcome of this latest wave is the analysis suggesting that the initial lockdown ended to early, looking only at cases in the south and not the north which meant the virus within the population was still too high when restrictions were lifted. The economic impact of this as northern areas face tougher restrictions coupled with very limited financial support in the event a national lockdown does occur will make anything Thatcher did to the north pale into insignificance. Given the blue wave across northern working class towns, nobody would have thought a single decision from Boris 6 months after being elected would have such an impact on the north.

When are we going to mandate that outside your own home you wear a mask both indoors and outdoors, every other European country is going in this direction because of its success in the Far East.

This is what effective one off Circuit Breaker leads to:

Code: Select all

[Sent by Gov.sg – 15 Oct]
 
As of 12pm, MOH has preliminarily confirmed 1 new case of locally transmitted COVID-19 infection.
 
Based on investigations so far, the case resides in a dormitory and there are no new cases in the community.
 
In addition, there are 2 imported cases who had been placed on Stay-Home Notice upon arrival in Singapore. In total, there are 3 new cases of COVID-19 infection in Singapore today.
 
MOH will share further updates in its press release that will be issued later tonight.
 
go.gov.sg/moh15octupdate

[Top Claret]

All these tiers mean jack sh!t to the majority, most go about seeing family and ignore them.

[martin_p]

Burnham thinks the whole UK can go into an indefinite lockdown paid for with the massive invisible surplus we have in our countries finances.

I assumed the rest of your post was equally as uninformed so stop reading after that.

[martin_p]

All these tiers mean jack sh!t to the majority, most go about seeing family and ignore them.

Most don’t.

[Awayfromburnley]

I guess they could use the contractual penalties for underperformance.

Oh, hang on ‘Contractual penalties are often unenforceable under English law so they were not included in test and trace contracts with Serco or Sitel’- Helen Whatley, Health Minister

She's technically not wrong but being a moron (or maybe very smart) with words.

Liquidated damages are the way to address, contractual penalties are near impossible to enact.

[Grumps]

Most don’t.

Maybe it's just where I live, but most do..

[SingaporeClarets]

I assumed the rest of your post was equally as uninformed so stop reading after that.

That's a shame because you missed the bit where I discuss Boris potentially doing more damage to the north than Thatcher which I thought you might like.

Maybe this is the issue with the virus spread in the UK. People get so delicate and see something they don't like such as the Covid 19 recommendations and stop reading further, continue their lives and then hope the government will bail you out for second, third, fourth time when more lockdowns are required.

[Wellsy1882]

Gym in liverpool
£1k fine
Armed police attending to issue fine

Sets up gofundme and raises 30k to stay open

Good on him. People need to stick together and tell this governement where to go

[martin_p]

Gym in liverpool
£1k fine
Armed police attending to issue fine

Sets up gofundme and raises 30k to stay open

Good on him. People need to stick together and tell this governement where to go

£30k won’t last him long if he stays open, they’ll very quickly put the fine up to £10k and he’ll get fined every day he’s open.

He needs to close but I can understand why he’s doing it.

[SingaporeClarets]

Gym in liverpool
£1k fine
Armed police attending to issue fine

Sets up gofundme and raises 30k to stay open

Good on him. People need to stick together and tell this governement where to go

Maybe they should organise a massive protest outside as a show of support, loads of strangers stood next to each other showing their unhappiness by shouting very loudly over each other and ensuring they show they police they are not scared by not wearing masks.

[FactualFrank]

If they hadn't packed out the city centre when they won the Premier League, there may have been no need to go into Tier 3.

[Boss Hogg]

There’ll always be idiots and we need more draconian measures. Populations of some other countries do what they are told. Was a stronger supporter of the government but I’m beginning to think they’ve made a pigs ear of things. This started with their credibility being undermined by retaining Cummings.

[Grumps]

If they hadn't packed out the city centre when they won the Premier League, there may have been no need to go into Tier 3.

As much as I dislike scousers, iam not sure we can blame that for the current rise in positive tests, it's too long ago.

[dsr]

All these tiers mean jack to the majority, most go about seeing family and ignore them.

Good. I hope they continue to do so whatever tier we reach.

Young people who are going out to work and living life almost as normal with relatively minor changes to their social habits - no need to visit them. But if you have an elderly parent and you have the choice of the tiny risk of spreading coronavirus or the certainty of standing at the end of the garden watching him or her crumble before your eyes - then get with the visiting. With what we know now about this virus, especially that it's not as deadly as we once thought, then it would be a poor son or daughter who chose to turn their back IMO.

There are a load of old people whose life is not worth living without any social interaction. It's all they have. There is a tale in today's Telegraph about a woman with Alzheimer's who can't understand why her husband can't visit, with him sitting outside her window in the rain so they can at least see each other. There is no point preserving this sort of existence.

Imagine life if, for no reason that you could see, you were living in a single room and couldn't go about as you pleased. And then, again for no reason that you could see, your family stopped visiting, everyone around you wore masks and you could never see anyone smile, and you were not given an explanation that you could understand. That is the life of an old person with dementia. What is the point?

All family restrictions on visiting the housebound should be abolished now.

[Wellsy1882]

£30k won’t last him long if he stays open, they’ll very quickly put the fine up to £10k and he’ll get fined every day he’s open.

He needs to close but I can understand why he’s doing it.

30ks in 24 hours

[martin_p]

Good. I hope they continue to do so whatever tier we reach.

Young people who are going out to work and living life almost as normal with relatively minor changes to their social habits - no need to visit them. But if you have an elderly parent and you have the choice of the tiny risk of spreading coronavirus or the certainty of standing at the end of the garden watching him or her crumble before your eyes - then get with the visiting. With what we know now about this virus, especially that it's not as deadly as we once thought, then it would be a poor son or daughter who chose to turn their back IMO.

There are a load of old people whose life is not worth living without any social interaction. It's all they have. There is a tale in today's Telegraph about a woman with Alzheimer's who can't understand why her husband can't visit, with him sitting outside her window in the rain so they can at least see each other. There is no point preserving this sort of existence.

Imagine life if, for no reason that you could see, you were living in a single room and couldn't go about as you pleased. And then, again for no reason that you could see, your family stopped visiting, everyone around you wore masks and you could never see anyone smile, and you were not given an explanation that you could understand. That is the life of an old person with dementia. What is the point?

All family restrictions on visiting the housebound should be abolished now.

Then thousands more people die before their time, not just from COVID but from the missed diagnosise and treatments caused by an overstretched NHS.

[dsr]

Then thousands more people die before their time, not just from COVID but from the missed diagnosise and treatments caused by an overstretched NHS.

If you say so. I'm by no means convinced that it's the housebound who are spreading this disease more than people going to work, school and college. But if you're sure...

[martin_p]

If you say so. I'm by no means convinced that it's the housebound who are spreading this disease more than people going to work, school and college. But if you're sure...

You’re telling families to go and visit the housebound, that’s how it will help the spread!

[dsr]

You’re telling families to go and visit the housebound, that’s how it will help the spread!

People are still going to work and university, for crying out loud! What's the thinking behind all this? Oxford University and Mrs Smith are both seeing people and there's a risk of transmitting the disease - let's cut the transmission rate by shutting Mrs Smith in?

How much do all the housebound Mrs. Smiths contribute to the spread of coronavirus? Is it more or less than all the universities and workplaces? I know Mrs Smith is an old lady who is gong to die soon anyway, but all the more reason to make her last year or two on earth be at least bearable.

If by banning family visits they have ensured that the R rate is 1.4 where it would have been 1.401, then it is not worth it. Not to make hundreds of thousands of people's live close to unbearable.

[martin_p]

People are still going to work and university, for crying out loud! What's the thinking behind all this?

It’s where the money is. But it should stop if we’re serious about reducing infections, hence the call for a short full lockdown.

[dsr]

It’s where the money is. But it should stop if we’re serious about reducing infections, hence the call for a short full lockdown.

A short full lockdown is logical and rational. Not necessarily correct, but there is reason behind it. But it must be a full lockdown - maybe with a week's notice - but two weeks full lockdown, no school, no work unless from home or for emergencies, even no parcel delivery.

It's this pratting about with trivial bans that make no practical difference to coronavirus but make a huge practical difference to old people - that's what is so unbearable.

[martin_p]

A short full lockdown is logical and rational. Not necessarily correct, but there is reason behind it. But it must be a full lockdown - maybe with a week's notice - but two weeks full lockdown, no school, no work unless from home or for emergencies, even no parcel delivery.

It's this pratting about with trivial bans that make no practical difference to coronavirus but make a huge practical difference to old people - that's what is so unbearable.

I’m not sure parcel deliveries will make much of a difference, but yes a full lockdown. But the reasoning behind the current anomalies are clear whether you agree with them or not and do have a thin layer of logic applied to them, it’s about minimising the impact on the economy. The more you open up the higher the transmission rates, so anything not directly contributing to the economy remain locked down.

[dsr]

I’m not sure parcel deliveries will make much of a difference, but yes a full lockdown. But the reasoning behind the current anomalies are clear whether you agree with them or not and do have a thin layer of logic applied to them, it’s about minimising the impact on the economy. The more you open up the higher the transmission rates, so anything not directly contributing to the economy remain locked down.

I'm a great fan of keeping the economy running. But the current rules have little effect on the young and a devastating effect on the old. It's far too disproportionate. Basically the world of work carries on as normal and the social world comes to a stop; if all you have is social world, then you're stuck with the goggle box for the next 6 months.

I'm sure it's not your intention, but I'm also sure that "anything not directly contributing to the economy" is a description of how the government sees pensioners in this crisis. Not as people.

[martin_p]

I'm a great fan of keeping the economy running. But the current rules have little effect on the young and a devastating effect on the old. It's far too disproportionate. Basically the world of work carries on as normal and the social world comes to a stop; if all you have is social world, then you're stuck with the goggle box for the next 6 months.

I'm sure it's not your intention, but I'm also sure that "anything not directly contributing to the economy" is a description of how the government sees pensioners in this crisis. Not as people.

The social world has come to a stop for about 50% of England, young or old. Also worth noting that for the other 50% of the country the housebound continue to have visitors.

[SingaporeClarets]

What a shambles that press conference was.

The Deputy Mayor of Manchester basically saying if the government don't give more money when you can't work then don't follow the rules and giving excuses to those who persist in doing as they please.

The standout part has to be the end bit where the leader of Manchester City Council interjected saying that tier 3 or a national lockdown is not necessary and that he's quoting the DCMO. EIther a Biden moment or the fact he's live on TV went to his head. Completely irresponsible statement followed by Burnham himself saying "Well Said". I was utterly shocked given it completely contradicted Andy's earlier calls for a national lockdown.

Burnham also unable to answer Sky News question about the fact the government don't need his blessing to introduce tier 3 so why delay things while the virus marches on.

All this while the deputy mayor blamed mixed messages from the government - pot, kettle, black.

The only message I got from that press conference was that this trio don't mind 60% on the furlough scheme in a lockdown as long as any lockdown applies to the whole country and not the areas with high number of cases. It will come across as selfish to the rest of the country where those leaders were not encouraging law breaking and did the North who he claims to represent no favours. "If our ship is sinking we are dragging you down with us"

Boris maybe screwing over the north but if you are living in Manchester, it's not being made any better by that incompetent trio.

Maybe if they just told the people of Manchester that if they actually do as they're told for a change, the virus won't spread and further restrictions won't be necessary. However Burnham despite saying many times he is not playing politics was at the same time just pouring fuel on the fire rather than leading the people he claims to represent.

[Mala591]

The virus is spreading like wildfire through schools, collages and universities. The spread then passes on to parents and grandparents. The only way of stopping the virus spread is to close down all educational establishments which isn't going to happen.

"...the young will destroy the old..................and inherit the earth..."

[CombatClaret]

Remember schools are childcare facilities for the 20% of the working population who make the money at any one time.
Remember collages and Universities are businesses.
The government does not want to be helping Universities If they had to refund students several thousands of pounds for a product not delivered.

[Steve-Harpers-perm]

What a shambles that press conference was.

The Deputy Mayor of Manchester basically saying if the government don't give more money when you can't work then don't follow the rules and giving excuses to those who persist in doing as they please.

The standout part has to be the end bit where the leader of Manchester City Council interjected saying that tier 3 or a national lockdown is not necessary and that he's quoting the DCMO. EIther a Biden moment or the fact he's live on TV went to his head. Completely irresponsible statement followed by Burnham himself saying "Well Said". I was utterly shocked given it completely contradicted Andy's earlier calls for a national lockdown.

Burnham also unable to answer Sky News question about the fact the government don't need his blessing to introduce tier 3 so why delay things while the virus marches on.

All this while the deputy mayor blamed mixed messages from the government - pot, kettle, black.

The only message I got from that press conference was that this trio don't mind 60% on the furlough scheme in a lockdown as long as any lockdown applies to the whole country and not the areas with high number of cases. It will come across as selfish to the rest of the country where those leaders were not encouraging law breaking and did the North who he claims to represent no favours. "If our ship is sinking we are dragging you down with us"

Boris maybe screwing over the north but if you are living in Manchester, it's not being made any better by that incompetent trio.

Maybe if they just told the people of Manchester that if they actually do as they're told for a change, the virus won't spread and further restrictions won't be necessary. However Burnham despite saying many times he is not playing politics was at the same time just pouring fuel on the fire rather than leading the people he claims to represent.

Would you trust this government? They seem to have one goal make themselves and pals rich. Shame they haven’t spent the last 6 months setting up localised effective track and trace systems rather than ‘spaffing’ money up a wall. If they’d done so there would be no need for this three tier nonsense.

[joey13]

What a shambles that press conference was.

The Deputy Mayor of Manchester basically saying if the government don't give more money when you can't work then don't follow the rules and giving excuses to those who persist in doing as they please.

The standout part has to be the end bit where the leader of Manchester City Council interjected saying that tier 3 or a national lockdown is not necessary and that he's quoting the DCMO. EIther a Biden moment or the fact he's live on TV went to his head. Completely irresponsible statement followed by Burnham himself saying "Well Said". I was utterly shocked given it completely contradicted Andy's earlier calls for a national lockdown.

Burnham also unable to answer Sky News question about the fact the government don't need his blessing to introduce tier 3 so why delay things while the virus marches on.

All this while the deputy mayor blamed mixed messages from the government - pot, kettle, black.

The only message I got from that press conference was that this trio don't mind 60% on the furlough scheme in a lockdown as long as any lockdown applies to the whole country and not the areas with high number of cases. It will come across as selfish to the rest of the country where those leaders were not encouraging law breaking and did the North who he claims to represent no favours. "If our ship is sinking we are dragging you down with us"

Boris maybe screwing over the north but if you are living in Manchester, it's not being made any better by that incompetent trio.

Maybe if they just told the people of Manchester that if they actually do as they're told for a change, the virus won't spread and further restrictions won't be necessary. However Burnham despite saying many times he is not playing politics was at the same time just pouring fuel on the fire rather than leading the people he claims to represent.

Do you live in Manchester?

[Bordeauxclaret]

This “circuit break” is inevitable. Everyone knows it, might as well just cut the bullshit and admit it.

[boatshed bill]

"Pubs shut unless they can operate as restaurants" so where do Wetherspoons stand in this?

[CombatClaret]

Remember when we were told this would solve things and make it all clear, we've tried this once, plus local lockdowns and it didn't' work.

page1-400px-Slides_to_accompany_UK_coronavirus_press_conference-_11_May_2020_-_UK_COVID_Alert_Levels.pdf.jpg (25.16 KiB) Viewed 2837 times

[Quickenthetempo]

What a shambles that press conference was.

The Deputy Mayor of Manchester basically saying if the government don't give more money when you can't work then don't follow the rules and giving excuses to those who persist in doing as they please.

The standout part has to be the end bit where the leader of Manchester City Council interjected saying that tier 3 or a national lockdown is not necessary and that he's quoting the DCMO. EIther a Biden moment or the fact he's live on TV went to his head. Completely irresponsible statement followed by Burnham himself saying "Well Said". I was utterly shocked given it completely contradicted Andy's earlier calls for a national lockdown.

Burnham also unable to answer Sky News question about the fact the government don't need his blessing to introduce tier 3 so why delay things while the virus marches on.

All this while the deputy mayor blamed mixed messages from the government - pot, kettle, black.

The only message I got from that press conference was that this trio don't mind 60% on the furlough scheme in a lockdown as long as any lockdown applies to the whole country and not the areas with high number of cases. It will come across as selfish to the rest of the country where those leaders were not encouraging law breaking and did the North who he claims to represent no favours. "If our ship is sinking we are dragging you down with us"

Boris maybe screwing over the north but if you are living in Manchester, it's not being made any better by that incompetent trio.

Maybe if they just told the people of Manchester that if they actually do as they're told for a change, the virus won't spread and further restrictions won't be necessary. However Burnham despite saying many times he is not playing politics was at the same time just pouring fuel on the fire rather than leading the people he claims to represent.

I haven't watched it but fair play to them.

Sticking up for their area like they should be.

[CombatClaret]

"Pubs shut unless they can operate as restaurants" so where do Wetherspoons stand in this?

They stand to benefit massively from the Wetherspoons shaped loophole that comes from donating £50k to the conservative party and £200k to VoteLeave.

I'm hearing football fans will be allowed back in stadiums but they will have to be carrying a Dyson.

[Quickenthetempo]

Forever and ever
we've been going the pub
for a few pints
and some grub.
We'll never get mastered
by no Tory *******.
We'll keep the pubs open in the North.

[Grumps]

They stand to benefit massively from the Wetherspoons shaped loophole that comes from donating £50k to the conservative party and £200k to VoteLeave..

Or just the fact they serve meals, plenty of other pubs will benefit in exactly the same way. I've been in a couple of wetherspoons in the past month, and they feel completely safe.

[CombatClaret]

Or just the fact they serve meals, plenty of other pubs will benefit in exactly the same way. I've been in a couple of wetherspoons in the past month, and they feel completely safe.

They are the largest nationwide company to which the new exception will apply and will hoover up the daily drinkers who should by the spirit of the law not be in pubs, but now can be because Wetherspoons will be able to offer the cheapest food available so they can have 7 pints with their pie over the afternoon and evening.
I expect staff will be told not to clear plates until customers leave.

[ClaretMoffitt]

Good. I hope they continue to do so whatever tier we reach.

Young people who are going out to work and living life almost as normal with relatively minor changes to their social habits - no need to visit them. But if you have an elderly parent and you have the choice of the tiny risk of spreading coronavirus or the certainty of standing at the end of the garden watching him or her crumble before your eyes - then get with the visiting. With what we know now about this virus, especially that it's not as deadly as we once thought, then it would be a poor son or daughter who chose to turn their back IMO.

There are a load of old people whose life is not worth living without any social interaction. It's all they have. There is a tale in today's Telegraph about a woman with Alzheimer's who can't understand why her husband can't visit, with him sitting outside her window in the rain so they can at least see each other. There is no point preserving this sort of existence.

Imagine life if, for no reason that you could see, you were living in a single room and couldn't go about as you pleased. And then, again for no reason that you could see, your family stopped visiting, everyone around you wore masks and you could never see anyone smile, and you were not given an explanation that you could understand. That is the life of an old person with dementia. What is the point?

All family restrictions on visiting the housebound should be abolished now.

High IQ post