This Forum is the main messageboard to discuss all things Claret and Blue and beyond
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dandeclaret
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by dandeclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 1:38 pm
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 1:21 pm
“2 bad decisions I reckon is all it takes to break years & years of good work” & 1 courageous & wise decision to stop the rot & bring some fans some hope & belief back & more encouragement towards the future, everything’s got a shelf life & a expiry date.
It's a courageous and wise decision to buy a winning lottery ticket that allows you to change your life. It's reckless and stupid when you spend your last £50 on losing lottery tickets.
In my opinion, decisions are often more prudent when anchored in logic and data, than emotional aspects.
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randomclaret2
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by randomclaret2 » Mon Feb 07, 2022 1:54 pm
dandeclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 1:38 pm
It's a courageous and wise decision to buy a winning lottery ticket that allows you to change your life. It's reckless and stupid when you spend your last £50 on losing lottery tickets.
In my opinion, decisions are often more prudent when anchored in logic and data, than emotional aspects.
Good to have the Dalai Lama on the board

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Jakubclaret
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by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 1:54 pm
dandeclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 1:38 pm
It's a courageous and wise decision to buy a winning lottery ticket that allows you to change your life. It's reckless and stupid when you spend your last £50 on losing lottery tickets.
In my opinion, decisions are often more prudent when anchored in logic and data, than emotional aspects.
Yes I can certainly see the sense in that resembling where we are currently

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dandeclaret
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by dandeclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 1:58 pm
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 1:54 pm
Yes I can certainly see the sense in that resembling where we are currently
That's the problem with your reductive way of responding to discussion points.
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Jakubclaret
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by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 2:05 pm
dandeclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 1:58 pm
That's the problem with your reductive way of responding to discussion points.
Or not recognising any sort of relation/correlation to squandering money on losing lottery tickets to changing managers.
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Spijed
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by Spijed » Mon Feb 07, 2022 2:14 pm
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 2:05 pm
Or not recognising any sort of relation/correlation to squandering money on losing lottery tickets to changing managers.
Impossible not to squander money in any sport where there is an element of risk involved.
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Jakubclaret
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by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 2:33 pm
Spijed wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 2:14 pm
Impossible not to squander money in any sport where there is an element of risk involved.
Sometimes the risk can reward itself, if Roy hodgson keeps Watford up (don’t think he will due to Newcastle) do you think the pozzo family will regret sacking CR I don’t, if you never take the risk you never know, it can work both ways sometimes things can get even worse but it’s not a reason to stay with something that’s not working because you fear taking that risk.
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JTClaret
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by JTClaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 2:35 pm
I've not read through the other posts (I don't have time, sorry).
It must have been mentioned that if we were to sack Dyche, the best possible replacement we could dream of, would be Dyche ?
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Spijed
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by Spijed » Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:39 pm
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 2:33 pm
Sometimes the risk can reward itself, if Roy hodgson keeps Watford up (don’t think he will due to Newcastle) do you think the pozzo family will regret sacking CR I don’t, if you never take the risk you never know, it can work both ways sometimes things can get even worse but it’s not a reason to stay with something that’s not working because you fear taking that risk.
Have we not taken a risk by signing Weghorst after losing Wood, unproven in the PL?
Who knows from this point onwards which club has got the better deal?
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gawthorpe_view
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by gawthorpe_view » Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:49 pm
JTClaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 2:35 pm
I've not read through the other posts (I don't have time, sorry).
It must have been mentioned that if we were to sack Dyche, the best possible replacement we could dream of, would be Dyche ?
Quite.
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Shaggy
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by Shaggy » Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:50 pm
Again wrong time to sack Dyche should have been done before the transfer window but whatever happens we need to moving him on after the final whistle sounds against Newcastle.
There’s no point in tainting another manager with Dyches mess this season. What’s done is done, I’m 99.9% certain we will be plying our trade in the EFL next season.
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dandeclaret
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by dandeclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 4:08 pm
Shaggy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:50 pm
Again wrong time to sack Dyche should have been done before the transfer window but whatever happens we need to moving him on after the final whistle sounds against Newcastle.
There’s no point in tainting another manager with Dyches mess this season. What’s done is done, I’m 99.9% certain we will be plying our trade in the EFL next season.
The bookmakers make it a 63.63% chance. You've just found a way of increasing your wealth by 32.27% in 3 months.
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KRBFC
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by KRBFC » Mon Feb 07, 2022 4:16 pm
Vegas Claret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:46 am
we failed to make the group stages, we absolutely qualified for Europe
We qualified for the qualifying rounds
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by Lancasterclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 4:17 pm
The idea that people could dis us finishing 7th in a 38 game season in the premier league is beyond baffling
It is, and remains, a remarkable achievement for us
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Rombald
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by Rombald » Mon Feb 07, 2022 4:20 pm
KRBFC wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 4:16 pm
We qualified for the qualifying rounds
Played in Europe and qualified. However you want to try and dumb it down its still a fantastic achievement.
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KRBFC
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by KRBFC » Mon Feb 07, 2022 4:25 pm
Rombald wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 4:20 pm
Played in Europe and qualified. However you want to try and dumb it down its still a fantastic achievement.
I just said we qualified for the qualifying rounds, which is the truth.
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yTib
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by yTib » Mon Feb 07, 2022 4:29 pm
some world class guff being spouted on this thread.
whether or not you like or want dyche, to denigrate what he has achieved for our club is just hysterical crap.
grow up.
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evensteadiereddie
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by evensteadiereddie » Mon Feb 07, 2022 4:34 pm
KRBFC wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 4:25 pm
I just said we qualified for the qualifying rounds, which is the truth.
Quality.

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Shaggy
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by Shaggy » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:05 pm
dandeclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 4:08 pm
The bookmakers make it a 63.63% chance. You've just found a way of increasing your wealth by 32.27% in 3 months.
It doesn’t quite work like that…
You know that bookies have to cover all sides..
In the cold light of day we have to win a minimum of 7 games, more than likely 8 or 9 wins.. that’s going to be top top 6 form for the rest of the season.
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Jakubclaret
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by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:13 pm
Spijed wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:39 pm
Have we not taken a risk by signing Weghorst after losing Wood, unproven in the PL?
Who knows from this point onwards which club has got the better deal?
Yes of course I’m not sure where this has come from? We are supposed to be discussing dyche now you want to discuss wood & weghorst, it doesn’t matter who’s got the better deal from a Newcastle perspective I don’t know what I can say or when this will sink in to you, Newcastle FC are being run by billionaires & signing somebody like messi/neymar ect is loose change to them. We can’t be 100% sure on weghorst but it stands to logical reason that wood is more likely to do better based on what he’s done previously & what weghorst hasn’t. It’s been mentioned logically if wood starts to do well for Newcastle that they’d be be no guarantee he would have done that here which is true but that simply points to a chance supply problem & weghorst will face the same difficulties wood faced & arguably even convert less.
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dandeclaret
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by dandeclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:16 pm
Shaggy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:05 pm
It doesn’t quite work like that…
You know that bookies have to cover all sides..
In the cold light of day we have to win a minimum of 7 games, more than likely 8 or 9 wins.. that’s going to be top top 6 form for the rest of the season.
Unfortunately, That's exactly how it works. The bookmakers have assessed that it's around a 36% chance that the required scenario will happen. You have assessed that it's a 0.1% chance of happening, therefore, if you believe that is really the correct chance, then you should rinse the bookies for everything you can, as they've clearly got it wrong.
Or you have*. You pays your money, and takes your chance.
*Not in terms of could Burnley be relegated, but in the actual chance of it happening.
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Jakubclaret
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by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:20 pm
Odd are made attractive so bets are placed even if the bookies know there’s no hope in hell, hardly anybody would place a bet if it didn’t look enticing.
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Jakubclaret
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by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:28 pm
No but i what do understand is the common sense principles in extracting money from peoples pockets in boosting profitability, let’s leave it there shall we

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dandeclaret
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by dandeclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:33 pm
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:28 pm
No but i what do understand is the common sense principles in extracting money from peoples pockets in boosting profitability, let’s leave it there shall we
No, you really don't. And I mean, really really don't. Bookmakers who get % chance of things happening and pricing them accordingly wrong go bankrupt, because there's enough smart people to take advantage of it. The bookmaker who makes heads 2/1 because "Tails never fails", and therefore nobody backs heads because they know it's not going to happen won't have too many funds for too often. Similar to the casino that offers 100/1 about unlucky 13 because it needs to be enticing for people to back it.
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Jakubclaret
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by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:40 pm
dandeclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:33 pm
No, you really don't. And I mean, really really don't. Bookmakers who get % chance of things happening and pricing them accordingly wrong go bankrupt, because there's enough smart people to take advantage of it. The bookmaker who makes heads 2/1 because "Tails never fails", and therefore nobody backs heads because they know it's not going to happen won't have too many funds for too often. Similar to the casino that offers 100/1 about unlucky 13 because it needs to be enticing for people to back it.
There's plenty on this board who will back up my credentials when it comes to how bookmaking works.
You wouldn’t get enough people putting bets on & if enough people did red flags would be raised & the odds would fluctuate rapidly to protect against that, it’s only the same principle as loss leaders in supermarkets where a small loss is made or breaking even it’s unlikely that single bets would be made akin to single purchases, loss lead products are strategically placed to minimise single purchases.
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Rileybobs
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by Rileybobs » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:42 pm
God love him.
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Vegas Claret
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by Vegas Claret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:43 pm
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dandeclaret
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by dandeclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:43 pm
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:40 pm
You wouldn’t get enough people putting bets on & if enough people did red flags would be raised & the odds would fluctuate rapidly to protect against that, it’s only the same principle as loss leaders in supermarkets where a small loss is made or breaking even it’s unlikely that single bets would be made akin to single purchases, loss lead products are strategically placed to minimise single purchases.
The odds would fluctuate, but the damage is already done, as bets are struck at the odds taken. Just to lay it on the line here, I've spent the last 25 years betting fairly successfully, and the last 10 years working for one of the largest betting and gaming companies in the world. What you are saying is fundamentally wrong in each of the posts you have made.
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Rileybobs
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by Rileybobs » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:45 pm
dandeclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:43 pm
The odds would fluctuate, but the damage is already done, as bets are struck at the odds taken. Just to lay it on the line here, I've spent the last 25 years betting fairly successfully, and the last 10 years working for one of the largest betting and gaming companies in the world. What you are saying is fundamentally wrong in each of the posts you have made.
Something tells me you’re going to have to agree to disagree.
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dandeclaret
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by dandeclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:46 pm
Rileybobs wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:45 pm
Something tells me you’re going to have to agree to disagree.

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Jakubclaret
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by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:49 pm
dandeclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:43 pm
The odds would fluctuate, but the damage is already done, as bets are struck at the odds taken. Just to lay it on the line here, I've spent the last 25 years betting fairly successfully, and the last 10 years working for one of the largest betting and gaming companies in the world. What you are saying is fundamentally wrong in each of the posts you have made.
I don’t work in that industry & I’ve never claimed to but I know years ago I’ve counselled people who had gambling addictions & that’s what I got told used to happen by them, if you nip something in the bud early enough I don’t see how that damage can happen especially when strict markers would be placed ensuring it didn’t happen. I’m applying general common sense & not industry insider knowledge.
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Spijed
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by Spijed » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:50 pm
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:13 pm
Yes of course I’m not sure where this has come from? We are supposed to be discussing dyche now you want to discuss wood & weghorst, it doesn’t matter who’s got the better deal from a Newcastle perspective I don’t know what I can say or when this will sink in to you, Newcastle FC are being run by billionaires & signing somebody like messi/neymar ect is loose change to them. We can’t be 100% sure on weghorst but it stands to logical reason that wood is more likely to do better based on what he’s done previously & what weghorst hasn’t. It’s been mentioned logically if wood starts to do well for Newcastle that they’d be be no guarantee he would have done that here which is true but that simply points to a chance supply problem & weghorst will face the same difficulties wood faced & arguably even convert less.
Is your keyboard knackered?
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bfcjg
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by bfcjg » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:50 pm
I keep clinging to the hope that Dyche will be given the funds and that he himself wants to get back to playing like we did when we had Defour, Brady pre injury etc,we played some lovely stuff, so either by design or misfortune we have seriously regressed since that period and hopefully it's the latter.
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Safron
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by Safron » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:55 pm
The main problem is SD reluctance to try something different, he is his own worst enemy
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KRBFC
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by KRBFC » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:55 pm
San Marino play European sides in the qualifiers too.... We were in the qualifiers.
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boatshed bill
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by boatshed bill » Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:56 pm
Spijed wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 3:39 pm
Have we not taken a risk by signing Weghorst after losing Wood, unproven in the PL?
Who knows from this point onwards which club has got the better deal?
With Wood wanting out, and the release clause, we had no option.
signing any new player carries an element of risk.
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Vegas Claret
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by Vegas Claret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:03 pm
KRBFC wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 5:55 pm
San Marino play European sides in the qualifiers too.... We were in the qualifiers.
We qualified via our league position as set out by the UEFA rules, we then failed to make the group stages. I suggest you write to UEFA and explain how their rules and qualification work
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RVclaret
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by RVclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:03 pm
Vegas Claret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:03 pm
We qualified via our league position as set out by the UEFA rules, we then failed to make the group stages. I suggest you write to UEFA and explain how their rules and qualification work
This guy actually claims he’s a football expert too

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claretandy
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by claretandy » Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:15 pm
He was back to talking about automaticity again today.... no chance he's going to freshen it up.
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KRBFC
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by KRBFC » Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:16 pm
Vegas Claret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:03 pm
We qualified via our league position as set out by the UEFA rules, we then failed to make the group stages. I suggest you write to UEFA and explain how their rules and qualification work
I'm well aware how it works, we qualified for the qualification rounds via our league position. We failed to qualify for the group stages. I'm not even sure which point you're arguing against?
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Rileybobs
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by Rileybobs » Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:19 pm
KRBFC wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:16 pm
I'm well aware how it works, we qualified for the qualification rounds via our league position. We failed to qualify for the group stages. I'm not even sure which point you're arguing against?
I think he’s arguing against this;
KRBFC wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:16 pm
we didn't qualify for Europe
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taio
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by taio » Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:25 pm
KRBFC wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:16 pm
I'm well aware how it works, we qualified for the qualification rounds via our league position. We failed to qualify for the group stages. I'm not even sure which point you're arguing against?
Just logged on to see a notification that you had quoted my post at 2.29am. No idea why you'd want to undermine my original point at the early hours of a Monday morning. Particularly when I was making the point that we qualified for European competition by finishing 7th which after plenty of tooing and froing from you is what you are now saying. Desperate stuff as usual, it really is.
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Devils_Advocate
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by Devils_Advocate » Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:27 pm
KRBFC has been on the money a lot recently and usually offers some very good ideas and analysis which often goes over the heads of some of the happy clappers but he's had a shocker today.
I also see Jakub has well and truly schooled that Dandy fellow so not even the booby prize for KRBFC im afraid
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Jakubclaret
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by Jakubclaret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:36 pm
taio wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:25 pm
Just logged on to see a notification that you had quoted my post at 2.29am. No idea why you'd want to undermine my original point at the early hours of a Monday morning. Particularly when I was making the point that we qualified for European competition by finishing 7th which after plenty of tooing and froing from you is what you are now saying. Desperate stuff as usual, it really is.
“Desperate stuff as usual” I know next he’ll be coming back on & spouting some bo11ocks about abit of rain & wind & the Watford game, it’s actually not a bad excuse for our form it does rain a lot in the north west, all the managers mowbray, Lowe ect need to group together & use it.
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Vegas Claret
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by Vegas Claret » Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:36 pm
KRBFC wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:16 pm
I'm well aware how it works, we qualified for the qualification rounds via our league position. We failed to qualify for the group stages. I'm not even sure which point you're arguing against?
"we didn't qualify for Europe"
Take a few days off mate
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tiger76
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by tiger76 » Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:47 pm
I'm not trawling through all the thread, but now is precisely the wrong time to sack Dyche, if we were going to bin him we should have done it sooner.
Assuming we do drop then the summer is the time to reflect on his future.
However what I find bizarre is some posters not being satisfied with finishing 7th and qualifying for Europe, whichever way you slice it that was some achievement for a club of our stature, yet it doesn't appear to be appreciated enough by so called Burnley fans.
I genuinely despair at anyone who's not happy with that as you'll probably never be happy as a Burnley fan in that case.
The sad reality is it's pretty much impossible for clubs to compete at this level without the backing of a rich owner, and the fact we've survived for 6 successive years is commendable in itself, now suddenly times are getting hard some folk want shut of the manager & owners.
No things aren't great at the present moment, but that's the life of a football fan, unless you have the fortune to support a big club there will always be up's and downs, hence why we should enjoy the good times when they come around, as they don't happen that often.
And the last 10 years have easily been the most enjoyable during my lifetime as a Claret, mainly due to Sean Dyche.
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evensteadiereddie
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by evensteadiereddie » Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:47 pm
Devils_Advocate wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:27 pm
KRBFC has been on the money a lot recently and usually offers some very good ideas and analysis which often goes over the heads of some of the happy clappers but he's had a shocker today.
I also see Jakub has well and truly schooled that Dandy fellow so not even the booby prize for KRBFC im afraid
Very good, DA, very good indeed.

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taio
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by taio » Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:51 pm
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:36 pm
“Desperate stuff as usual” I know next he’ll be coming back on & spouting some bo11ocks about abit of rain & wind & the Watford game, it’s actually not a bad excuse for our form it does rain a lot in the north west, all the managers mowbray, Lowe ect need to group together & use it.
Desperate is also going on a Watford messageboard and then misrepresenting the content of a thread as some weak and weird attempt to support a viewpoint. Then doing what you often do when you have been rumbled on a plethora of subjects and saying you are no longer engaging and wishing the person a good day. You then have the audacity to go back over old ground like you have done here. I've never known anyone post as many strange things irrespective of the subject being discussed. As an aside it has been pointed out to you before by others that it's etc not ect. Have a good day

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KRBFC
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by KRBFC » Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:52 pm
Vegas Claret wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 6:36 pm
"we didn't qualify for Europe"
Take a few days off mate
I don't consider crashing out before the proper tournament gets underway as qualifying. Same as I don't consider Celtic qualifying for the UCL if they crash out in qualifying for the group stages. I take your point though, you consider the group stage qualifying rounds as the actual tournament despite zero prize money on offer and different TV deals.
By definition it's called ''UEFA Europa League qualifying phase and play-off round'' you are competing for qualification for that years tournament.