The most concerning financial journo article yet!

[RVclaret]

Fair points DA. This is why I feel they stick with Dyche even if we go down, as he’s proven twice that he can deliver promotion. If you are right and they are a touch more aggressive in their attempt to go straight back up, you only have to look at Fulham this year to see their squad and think we could definitely replicate that with the right players in, while retaining our ‘core’.

[aggi]

Indeed so over three years the club loses over a £100 million quid in Premiership money. At the same time it has to pay off at least £128 million quid's worth of debt because no club can pay that debt off interest only on a turnover of £20 million.

Sell it's best players and replace them with contracts that can be lived on with on a Turnover of around £20 million. if you calculate players wages at 50 per cent of turnover - the entire squad would cost £10 million quid or less.

In other words, the club has to pay out at least £228 million quid less what we can generate in sales while losing over £100 million quid's worth of revenue and at the end of it will have a playing squad worth less than £10 million on a turnover of £20 million.

3 years ago we had £80 million quid in the bank.

I stood on the Bee Hole with my Dad - he is 87 now....! I grew up with this club.

You must be mildly irritated at least?

Again, like a lot of posts on the topic, this has plenty of assumptions.

You seem to have decided that all of the potential money owed by ALK to MSD, Garlick, John B, etc is all going to become Burnley's debt and have to be repaid straight off with no attempt to go back up.

In reality we have no idea what other financing has happened with ALK and what proportion of the remaining purchase price still needs to be funded and how it is proposed to fund it.

[NewClaret]

Again, like a lot of posts on the topic, this has plenty of assumptions.

You seem to have decided that all of the potential money owed by ALK to MSD, Garlick, John B, etc is all going to become Burnley's debt and have to be repaid straight off with no attempt to go back up.

In reality we have no idea what other financing has happened with ALK and what proportion of the remaining purchase price still needs to be funded and how it is proposed to fund it.

This.

DA - will reply properly to your post when I get moment mate.

[Chester Perry]

In response to DA

There is also the element that it is statistically far easier to stay in the Premier League if you have been there for a few seasons or more than it is if you have just been promoted.

relegation and promotion can theoretically enable a financial reset, but it usually removes much of the knowledge and experience 'know how' both on the pitch and in the back room of coaches and analysts as costs are trimmed. Building that back up is distracting and often includes 'learning curves' and 'growing pains'.

The amount of monies now available to Premier League clubs via central distribution is about to get bigger, this will not be reflected in Parachute Payments as the growth is coming from overseas income, their value will be the same as this cycle which is actually less than cycle prior to that. Parachutes still provide a distinct advantage though, particularly when combined with sustained development spend while in the Premier League. We are now in a situation where there are only around 25 or so clubs have a realistic opportunity to benefit from Premier League monies on a regular basis - with at least half that amount looking like being permanent fixtures going forward given the funds being lavished on them to try and ensure that end.

So far we have managed to escape the churn, we are currently being pulled back towards it and it is only ever getting harder to escape it by doing what we have done for the last 6 seasons. We are the only club in the last two decades to do this from self generated funds. Add the weight of facilitating the takeover financing and that makes life even more difficult if significant additional revenues and/or investment are not found

[Chester Perry]

Is there anyone else like me wo thinks this should be merged with the "Grim" thread, there is much discussion being repeated here that was either clearly and factually answered on that thread or had the range of it's possibilities clearly defined.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Is there anyone else like me wo thinks this should be merged with the "Grim" thread, there is much discussion being repeated here that was either clearly and factually answered on that thread or had the range of it's possibilities clearly defined.

They should go on the takeover thread, because most of what's said since then on numerous threads is just being regurgitated.

[NewClaret]

They should go on the takeover thread, because most of what's said since then on numerous threads is just being regurgitated.

Yep. Grim and this (which I’ll call “Grimmer” given its title) should go in the ALK takeover thread (renamed to remove the Egyptians).

[ClaretPete001]

Again, like a lot of posts on the topic, this has plenty of assumptions.

You seem to have decided that all of the potential money owed by ALK to MSD, Garlick, John B, etc is all going to become Burnley's debt and have to be repaid straight off with no attempt to go back up.

In reality we have no idea what other financing has happened with ALK and what proportion of the remaining purchase price still needs to be funded and how it is proposed to fund it.

To argue that we are making poor assumptions about something that is known and which the evidence points to better assumptions seems to me to be a legitimate criticism.

To argue that we cannot make assumptions based on the assumption that something maybe happening that we don't know about - seems to me to be a logical fallacy.

[Devils_Advocate]

In response to DA

There is also the element that it is statistically far easier to stay in the Premier League if you have been there for a few seasons or more than it is if you have just been promoted.

relegation and promotion can theoretically enable a financial reset, but it usually removes much of the knowledge and experience 'know how' both on the pitch and in the back room of coaches and analysts as costs are trimmed. Building that back up is distracting and often includes 'learning curves' and 'growing pains'.

The amount of monies now available to Premier League clubs via central distribution is about to get bigger, this will not be reflected in Parachute Payments as the growth is coming from overseas income, their value will be the same as this cycle which is actually less than cycle prior to that. Parachutes still provide a distinct advantage though, particularly when combined with sustained development spend while in the Premier League. We are now in a situation where there are only around 25 or so clubs have a realistic opportunity to benefit from Premier League monies on a regular basis - with at least half that amount looking like being permanent fixtures going forward given the funds being lavished on them to try and ensure that end.

So far we have managed to escape the churn, we are currently being pulled back towards it and it is only ever getting harder to escape it by doing what we have done for the last 6 seasons. We are the only club in the last two decades to do this from self generated funds. Add the weight of facilitating the takeover financing and that makes life even more difficult if significant additional revenues and/or investment are not found

All very true and I guess the crux of my point was the dire problems that teams like Sunderland and Derby have encountered was not due to relegation from the Premier League but the betting of the ranch to chase promotion to get into the Premier League

If ALK bet the ranch and chase promotion which from their financial perspective is not a daft strategy then Burnley FC could be about to embark on a very bumpy journey. You make the point that even if they are successful then that does not necessarily return us back to where we are today because as you rightly say the newly promoted teams tend to be the most vulnerable

[ClaretPete001]

All very true and I guess the crux of my point was the dire problems that teams like Sunderland and Derby have encountered was not due to relegation from the Premier League but the betting of the ranch to chase promotion to get into the Premier League

If ALK bet the ranch and chase promotion which from their financial perspective is not a daft strategy then Burnley FC could be about to embark on a very bumpy journey. You make the point that even if they are successful then that does not necessarily return us back to where we are today because as you rightly say the newly promoted teams tend to be the most vulnerable

Indeed, but in our scenario no one would want to take the bet on the ranch because the last thing you want after winning a ranch in a gambling den is lots of smart New York financiers and lawyers waving papers telling you the ranch you just won is theirs.

That would sober you up double quick....

[Paul Waine]

Is there anyone else like me wo thinks this should be merged with the "Grim" thread, there is much discussion being repeated here that was either clearly and factually answered on that thread or had the range of it's possibilities clearly defined.

"Clarets: all things financial aka Clarets Magic Money Tree" would be my pick of names.

"Grim" and "Most concerning...." are a little biased.

Just like a thread titled "Exciting Times" might be felt a little biased in the other direction.

UTC

[ClaretPete001]

So the squad is only worth what the wage bill is.

Interesting.

The value of a squad can go up and down so if you take the cost of the squad as a reasonable assumption then...

Of course, we may unearth a Messi.....

[aggi]

To argue that we are making poor assumptions about something that is known and which the evidence points to better assumptions seems to me to be a legitimate criticism.

To argue that we cannot make assumptions based on the assumption that something maybe happening that we don't know about - seems to me to be a logical fallacy.

It's fine to make assumptions, but it should be clear that they are assumptions.

The situation is murky enough without having to work out whether someone's post is fact or just what they think might be the case based on a gut feeling.

[ClaretTony]

When ALK were negotiating this deal with the current chairman and directors didn't the likes of Clive Holt get involved in the negotiations to make sure that the club wouldn't be put in jeopardy?

No - they didn't negotiate in those terms with the directors who departed.

[ClaretPete001]

It's fine to make assumptions, but it should be clear that they are assumptions.

The situation is murky enough without having to work out whether someone's post is fact or just what they think might be the case based on a gut feeling.

To be fair, Aggi you called the article "shonky" and then conjectured about Watford.

I tend to disagree I think the thread remains murky because of a bit of a desire to argue over minutiae and an inability to synthesise basic facts into a narrative of the direction of the club.

I don't think you need to be a financial wiz to argue that after 6 years in the Prem' and with an ageing squad - relegation would look a whole lot better with £80 million quid in the bank than whatever amount of debt you feel isn't supposition. Of course, ALK may have something up their sleeves but that is conjecture so ......

It's a bit like falling off a liner in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and shouting "help help I'm going to drown" and someone says "how do you know?" I mean you might feel that the exact depth of the ocean does not need to be determined before the rescue dinghy is launched.

Of course, it well be the case that you fall on a passing whale, which transports you to safety but my guess is that until that happens you want the dinghy.

[Chester Perry]

Clarets Magic Money Tree

I think we all suspect that VSL have this as an end goal in terms of what they are looking to actually create - getting to that stage will require something very different indeed and as yet we have seen little of any real note.

For all the noise of their technological credentials that side of things has proven to be a particularly damp squib to date

- AiScout - fractional shareholding - currently led to no new players in the Academy
- PlayerLens - fractional shareholding and not heard anything about our use
- TikTok - our number of registered followers has quadrupled since the announcing the partnership but is still less than 200k
- YellowHeart - all quiet
- Asset Match all quiet, it feels like they want first crack at your shares (so they can try and flip for a profit) rather than allow others to make you an offer
- INX securities - all quite, I admit this will take some time to put together, not least because their is so little to offer a "bond against"

Meanwhile the Online ticketing and club shop appear from anecdotal evidence on this board to actually be worse 13 months on, a situation most would have though impossible in Jan 2021

Then you look at the new investment side of things - Malcolm Jenkins - just how minor is his minor stake and was it offered at a preferential rate for the publicity he generated.

Where are the major commercial deals and new revenue streams, beyond electronic billboards that for all we know may have been on the Garlick roadmap.

Where are the launch plans for new initiatives that really should be in development, saying you have a few ideas 12 months after the takeover - 4 years after launching a company with the purpose of owning a club and 3 years (at least) after first entering into negotiations for an English club and at least 2 years after entering into negotiations for our club.

[Paul Waine]

I think we all suspect that VSL have this as an end goal in terms of what they are looking to actually create - getting to that stage will require something very different indeed and as yet we have seen little of any real note.

For all the noise of their technological credentials that side of things has proven to be a particularly damp squib to date

- AiScout - fractional shareholding - currently led to no new players in the Academy
- PlayerLens - fractional shareholding and not heard anything about our use
- TikTok - our number of registered followers has quadrupled since the announcing the partnership but is still less than 200k
- YellowHeart - all quiet
- Asset Match all quiet, it feels like they want first crack at your shares (so they can try and flip for a profit) rather than allow others to make you an offer
- INX securities - all quite, I admit this will take some time to put together, not least because their is so little to offer a "bond against"

Meanwhile the Online ticketing and club shop appear from anecdotal evidence on this board to actually be worse 13 months on, a situation most would have though impossible in Jan 2021

Then you look at the new investment side of things - Malcolm Jenkins - just how minor is his minor stake and was it offered at a preferential rate for the publicity he generated.

Where are the major commercial deals and new revenue streams, beyond electronic billboards that for all we know may have been on the Garlick roadmap.

Where are the launch plans for new initiatives that really should be in development, saying you have a few ideas 12 months after the takeover - 4 years after launching a company with the purpose of owning a club and 3 years (at least) after first entering into negotiations for an English club and at least 2 years after entering into negotiations for our club.

Hi CP, you might have read a little more into my suggestion of "Clarets MMT" than I intended. It was merely paying respect to our existing "MMT" thread, which, by and large, exists only through your tremendous efforts.

I'm not sure what you are saying re "technological credentials." You list a wide range of "things."

AIScout - ALK are only one of many investors in AIScout. As clubs have been signing up youngsters from 7 years old, I'm not sure how many are left to be "discovered" via any app. There's nothing "exclusive" to Burnley, so if it identifies 1 academy player every 10 years it will probably have more than paid its way. In other words, scouting will still be a human activity, just as it should be.
PlayerLens - ditto.
TikTok - it's just social media. Nice idea to put BFC Women's games on there, assuming that is happening. (I've not of the tiktok generation).
YellowHeart - was that a NFT thing? Better that the idea of nfts is kicked into touch by everyone.
Asset Match - share trading between shareholders in private limited companies. I doubt there is any demand. The existing small shareholders were either very happy to sell to ALK or not interested in selling - based on the posts on here. I doubt any of us who aren't shareholders in BFC will be rushing to buy shares in the club from other small shareholders.
INX Securities - how many weeks is it since this was first mentioned? How many games have Burnley played since then? I'd expect these things take time to set up. I'd also expect that nothing will happen with this regard until Burnley have secured Premier League status for another season.

On-line ticketing and club shop: I've no idea what the issues are. Some appear to say it works fine. Others report it never works. I wonder if there's any correlation with devices used to stream games, possibly using "other country" vpn and similar? Or, maybe just the very simple "compatible with version X and later...."

Malcolm Jenkins? I don't see investing in ALK Capital as a "retail" thing. So, I don't see any target investors being "won over" because Jenkins has invested. I'd expect them all to be "high net worth" people.

"4 years after launching....3 years after Sheff Utd...and at least 2 years after entering into negotiations for our club?" Wasn't it Sept-2022 when we first learnt of ALK Capital negotiating with Mike Garlick? Yes, I'm sure discussions started some time earlier... But, I'd have expected all these new initiatives to be specific to Burnley's situation and, putting covid-19 aside, could only commence development after the takeover and getting to know the club etc etc.

UTC

[arise_sir_charge]

The value of a squad can go up and down so if you take the cost of the squad as a reasonable assumption then...

Of course, we may unearth a Messi.....

I don’t follow your logic at all.

Wage bills and squad values are totally different yet you pass one off as the other. Why use £10m as our squad value? It’s ridiculously low.

This is my issue with these threads, lots of guess work and supposition but in the eyes of those that don’t know and rely on others on here to explain it becomes fact.

Also agree all these threads should be merged into one.

[ClaretPete001]

I don’t follow your logic at all.

Wage bills and squad values are totally different yet you pass one off as the other. Why use £10m as our squad value? It’s ridiculously low.

This is my issue with these threads, lots of guess work and supposition but in the eyes of those that don’t know and rely on others on here to explain it becomes fact.

Also agree all these threads should be merged into one.

I may not have made myself very clear.

My point was based the fact that Blackburn Rovers/ Preston / Forest have non-parachute turnovers of in the region of 15 to 25 million (Forest are a slightly bigger club).

If you believe what you read Burnley's turnover is £135 million and the current wage bill is 100 million quid.

Can you see where I am going? If Burnley get relegated and do not get promoted then after 3 years the turnover will likely drop over a £100 million to £20 million and if Players wages are 50 per cent of turnover then that equates to £10 million. These are figures that are also quoted in the article.

The point I am making is that the club will go from one that has the ability to attract players of the kind of value that earn a salary of £100 million to one that can attract players worth £10 million.

It's not in the minutiae that I make my point but in the big picture. The club could potentially have debts of £128 million plus and a turnover of less than £20 million. And of you want to see what that looks like then check out Blackburn Rovers accounts albeit their wage bill is dangerously high.

https://www.lancs.live/sport/football/f ... l-18056783

The difference between Burnley FC and Rovers is that the Venkys are billionaires.

This is no different to any scientific or mathematical way of looking at a multi-variant complex problem. You fit in what you know and hypothesise the rest and test your hypothesis as new data comes in.

The problem I think a number have is that they do not want to accept the reality of the situation.

[ClaretPete001]

And this is the accompanying quote from Macguire to the article above

"It leaves Blackburn falling off a cliff because they are reliant on the Venky's writing out that cheque on a weekly or monthly basis to cover a wage bill," Maguire told LancsLive.

"I appreciate that Venky's took a lot of criticism from Blackburn fans but if it weren't for the Venky's I would hate to think where the club would be

[Spijed]

No - they didn't negotiate in those terms with the directors who departed.

What was Clive Holt's role?

[ClaretPete001]

Hi CP, you might have read a little more into my suggestion of "Clarets MMT" than I intended. It was merely paying respect to our existing "MMT" thread, which, by and large, exists only through your tremendous efforts.

I'm not sure what you are saying re "technological credentials." You list a wide range of "things."

AIScout - ALK are only one of many investors in AIScout. As clubs have been signing up youngsters from 7 years old, I'm not sure how many are left to be "discovered" via any app. There's nothing "exclusive" to Burnley, so if it identifies 1 academy player every 10 years it will probably have more than paid its way. In other words, scouting will still be a human activity, just as it should be.
PlayerLens - ditto.
TikTok - it's just social media. Nice idea to put BFC Women's games on there, assuming that is happening. (I've not of the tiktok generation).
YellowHeart - was that a NFT thing? Better that the idea of nfts is kicked into touch by everyone.
Asset Match - share trading between shareholders in private limited companies. I doubt there is any demand. The existing small shareholders were either very happy to sell to ALK or not interested in selling - based on the posts on here. I doubt any of us who aren't shareholders in BFC will be rushing to buy shares in the club from other small shareholders.
INX Securities - how many weeks is it since this was first mentioned? How many games have Burnley played since then? I'd expect these things take time to set up. I'd also expect that nothing will happen with this regard until Burnley have secured Premier League status for another season.

On-line ticketing and club shop: I've no idea what the issues are. Some appear to say it works fine. Others report it never works. I wonder if there's any correlation with devices used to stream games, possibly using "other country" vpn and similar? Or, maybe just the very simple "compatible with version X and later...."

Malcolm Jenkins? I don't see investing in ALK Capital as a "retail" thing. So, I don't see any target investors being "won over" because Jenkins has invested. I'd expect them all to be "high net worth" people.

"4 years after launching....3 years after Sheff Utd...and at least 2 years after entering into negotiations for our club?" Wasn't it Sept-2022 when we first learnt of ALK Capital negotiating with Mike Garlick? Yes, I'm sure discussions started some time earlier... But, I'd have expected all these new initiatives to be specific to Burnley's situation and, putting covid-19 aside, could only commence development after the takeover and getting to know the club etc etc.

UTC

I think the substance of Chester's point, albeit I hesitate to put words in his mouth, is that if there was a corporate strategy it seems not to have much substance up to this point.

Each point Chester makes can be argued to infinity but the substantive point he is making seems to be entirely justified.

[arise_sir_charge]

I may not have made myself very clear.

My point was based the fact that Blackburn Rovers/ Preston / Forest have non-parachute turnovers of in the region of 15 to 25 million (Forest are a slightly bigger club).

If you believe what you read Burnley's turnover is £135 million and the current wage bill is 100 million quid.

Can you see where I am going? If Burnley get relegated and do not get promoted then after 3 years the turnover will likely drop over a £100 million to £20 million and if Players wages are 50 per cent of turnover then that equates to £10 million. These are figures that are also quoted in the article.

The point I am making is that the club will go from one that has the ability to attract players of the kind of value that earn a salary of £100 million to one that can attract players worth £10 million.

It's not in the minutiae that I make my point but in the big picture. The club could potentially have debts of £128 million plus and a turnover of less than £20 million. And of you want to see what that looks like then check out Blackburn Rovers accounts albeit their wage bill is dangerously high.

https://www.lancs.live/sport/football/f ... l-18056783

The difference between Burnley FC and Rovers is that the Venkys are billionaires.

This is no different to any scientific or mathematical way of looking at a multi-variant complex problem. You fit in what you know and hypothesise the rest and test your hypothesis as new data comes in.

The problem I think a number have is that they do not want to accept the reality of the situation.

We are a long way from the scenario you are hypothesising using guessed numbers.

So far on this thread we’ve seen people suggest some payments disappear, others suggest that payments are due immediately, suggestions MSD will want capital payments along with interest payments (this seems nonsensical to me but never mind), suggestions John B gets his money between now and 2025.

Nobody knows any of the facts bar those involved yet all the scenarios suggested work on worst case.

The problem is, as I said above, people who don’t know/understand look here for info and your hypothesis becomes bar room fact.

There has always been an element of high suspicion of foreign owners on this board and an immediate expectation that it inevitably turns bad…..the number of clubs here this has come to pass is minimal.

Another fact completely overlooked is that the two clubs that I would suggest that have come closest to complete capitulation are Bolton and now it seems Derby…….an interesting fact for you, both were owned by lifelong fans at the point it went tits up!

So stop worrying, what will be, will be and there is an awful lot of water to flow under many bridges before any of it comes to pass.

[ClaretTony]

What was Clive Holt's role?

He was a director of the club from summer 1986 to the end of 2020.

[ClaretTony]

Another fact completely overlooked is that the two clubs that I would suggest that have come closest to complete capitulation are Bolton and now it seems Derby…….an interesting fact for you, both were owned by lifelong fans at the point it went tits up!

That's very much the case. As much as you would prefer fans owning the club, there is always the risk that they sometimes behave too much like fans. I'm not saying that was the case with Davies and Morris but it is certainly a risk.

[Jakubclaret]

And this is the accompanying quote from Macguire to the article above

"It leaves Blackburn falling off a cliff because they are reliant on the Venky's writing out that cheque on a weekly or monthly basis to cover a wage bill," Maguire told LancsLive.

"I appreciate that Venky's took a lot of criticism from Blackburn fans but if it weren't for the Venky's I would hate to think where the club would be

Side by side given a choice, alk or venkys who would you choose to plug that gaping hole? The idiots down the M65 corridor was spoilt for so long with JW they didn’t know any different, fan protests & snowballs pelted the venkys have always subsidised I’d have them here in a shot over ALK.

[Vegas Claret]

Given how ridiculous the financing in the PL has got with all the takeovers by countries and billionaires I think the best teams like us, WBA, Norwich etc can hope for is to be some sort of yo-yo club. We realistically are in a division that has 7 clubs trying to squeeze into the top for, 13-15 into the top 6, and the rest.

[Newcastleclaret93]

Tariq Panja tweeting about Burnley again.

“ Tried to ask Burnley owner Alan Pace what happens to Burnley should the team be relegated. Remember he used the club’s own cash reserves as well as a high interest loan secured against the club to buy it from its former owners. His reply: I don’t want to talk about it.”


Keiran Maguire also commenting.

“Any LBO has risk, an LBO where there’s a 30% chance each year of losing your prime revenue source is very risky.”

Very concerning times ahead by the looks of it

[RVclaret]

Tariq Panja tweeting about Burnley again.

“ Tried to ask Burnley owner Alan Pace what happens to Burnley should the team be relegated. Remember he used the club’s own cash reserves as well as a high interest loan secured against the club to buy it from its former owners. His reply: I don’t want to talk about it.”


Keiran Maguire also commenting.

“Any LBO has risk, an LBO where there’s a 30% chance each year of losing your prime revenue source is very risky.”

Very concerning times ahead by the looks of it

Again I find it incomprehensible that Pace and co, along with Garlick and co, have not got a structured plan in place in the event of relegation, given how we are one of the bookies favourites to go down every year. Tariq or Keiran neither know the terms of the deal and we can only go off Pace’s comments that it’s not a concern. Keiran also got quite a bit wrong / not accurate in his recent article. As for Tariq, why would Pace give him any details - particularly when we’ve still got a chance of stopping up? It would look a bit daft to start talking about relegation and create headlines with 18 games still to play and 4 points off survival with games in hand.

[Newcastleclaret93]

Again I find it incomprehensible that Pace and co, along with Garlick and co, have not got a structured plan in place in the event of relegation, given how we are one of the bookies favourites to go down every year. Tariq or Keiran neither know the terms of the deal and we can only go off Pace’s comments that it’s not a concern. Keiran also got quite a bit wrong / not accurate in his recent article. As for Tariq, why would Pace give him any details - particularly when we’ve still got a chance of stopping up? It would look a bit daft to start talking about relegation and create headlines with 18 games still to play and 4 points off survival with games in hand.

Would it look silly? It’s just conjecture. To me it looks like Pace doesn’t have a plan and that is what the journalists are alluding to in my opinion.

[Quickenthetempo]

Tariq Panja tweeting about Burnley again.

“ Tried to ask Burnley owner Alan Pace what happens to Burnley should the team be relegated. Remember he used the club’s own cash reserves as well as a high interest loan secured against the club to buy it from its former owners. His reply: I don’t want to talk about it.”


Keiran Maguire also commenting.

“Any LBO has risk, an LBO where there’s a 30% chance each year of losing your prime revenue source is very risky.”

Very concerning times ahead by the looks of it

Are you surprised a man, who always appears positive, who is trying to sell the club to people to invest/purchase things etc.. doesn't want to talk about worst case scenarios all the time?

[arise_sir_charge]

Would it look silly? It’s just conjecture. To me it looks like Pace doesn’t have a plan and that is what the journalists are alluding to in my opinion.

FFS, Bore off.

[RVclaret]

Would it look silly? It’s just conjecture. To me it looks like Pace doesn’t have a plan and that is what the journalists are alluding to in my opinion.

Fair enough, my opinion is that it’s borderline impossible there’s no plan if we go down. I mean, even at the point of takeover in Jan 2021 we were hovering near the relegation places weren’t we? It very well could have happened that season. And yeah I do think i wouldn’t want our owner coming out and creating headlines about relegation, divulging contract status and terms of the staff, as well as players who would need to be sold - particularly when still have a fine chance at staying up!

[aggi]

To be fair, Aggi you called the article "shonky" and then conjectured about Watford.

I tend to disagree I think the thread remains murky because of a bit of a desire to argue over minutiae and an inability to synthesise basic facts into a narrative of the direction of the club.

I don't think you need to be a financial wiz to argue that after 6 years in the Prem' and with an ageing squad - relegation would look a whole lot better with £80 million quid in the bank than whatever amount of debt you feel isn't supposition. Of course, ALK may have something up their sleeves but that is conjecture so ......

It's a bit like falling off a liner in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and shouting "help help I'm going to drown" and someone says "how do you know?" I mean you might feel that the exact depth of the ocean does not need to be determined before the rescue dinghy is launched.

Of course, it well be the case that you fall on a passing whale, which transports you to safety but my guess is that until that happens you want the dinghy.

I stand by it being shonky given the omission around the 13 month period, relegation clauses, not mentioning Watford's new £50m loan, etc. I was only building on the conjecture about Watford in the article, I said it was guesswork.

Just to illustrate, we've had Paul suggesting that £60m of debt from ALK to the old owners will be written off if we go down and you suggesting it will be payable by BFC if we go down. Obviously both can't be true but both were presented as something that was going to happen. £60m probably isn't classed as minutiae.

I wouldn't dispute that going down with cash in the bank (although it obviously wouldn't be £80m) is a better position than we will likely be in if we go down now but it isn't really necessary to add unfounded "facts" to the scenario.

[Jakubclaret]

Would it look silly? It’s just conjecture. To me it looks like Pace doesn’t have a plan and that is what the journalists are alluding to in my opinion.

I’ve never ever known somebody who’s supposed to be running a business remain so quiet when faced with a barrage of criticism & that’s without expecting detailed business plans or life stories, the questions are just normal & valid.

[joey13]

Fair enough, my opinion is that it’s borderline impossible there’s no plan if we go down. I mean, even at the point of takeover in Jan 2021 we were hovering near the relegation places weren’t we? It very well could have happened that season. And yeah I do think i wouldn’t want our owner coming out and creating headlines about relegation, divulging contract status and terms of the staff, as well as players who would need to be sold - particularly when still have a fine chance at staying up!

You assume Americans understand the concept of relegation.

[Lancasterclaret]

When the vast majority of your income is based on premier league TV money, then relegation from that league will inevitable be really, really bad

And the longer you are out of that league, then the worse that will become

I'm fairly chilled out about it, simply because we'd be in deep s**t in the event of relegation if we don't go back up, and whoever is in charge has to judge that very carefully about just how much we can go to get back before it gets to the Derby stage

[Newcastleclaret93]

Fair enough, my opinion is that it’s borderline impossible there’s no plan if we go down. I mean, even at the point of takeover in Jan 2021 we were hovering near the relegation places weren’t we? It very well could have happened that season. And yeah I do think i wouldn’t want our owner coming out and creating headlines about relegation, divulging contract status and terms of the staff, as well as players who would need to be sold.

Fair point, maybe the wording could be different. As you say maybe it would pay to say we have plans in place for every eventuality but right now we are focusing on staying in this league.

I just don’t like the constant hiding away

[RVclaret]

You assume Americans understand the concept of relegation.

Why wouldn’t they? They will have done due diligence and had a first hand look at the ins and outs of all finances when we last went down. With careers in investment banking, which is basically heavily focused on mergers, acquisitions and LBO’s, I’d be gobsmacked if they haven’t done a ‘grey sky’ scenario analysis - particularly when at the time of the takeover, we were looking like a genuine candidate for relegation 4 months later!!

[bobinho]

The value of a squad can go up and down so if you take the cost of the squad as a reasonable assumption then...

Of course, we may unearth a Messi.....

We may well unearth a Messi, but after four years of “trap it back to the keeper” in the academy he’ll be worth sod all….

[RVclaret]

Fair point, maybe the wording could be different. As you say maybe it would pay to say we have plans in place for every eventuality but right now we are focusing on staying in this league.

I just don’t like the constant hiding away

That’s basically what he said when asked about it by BBC Lancs in an interview recently isn’t it?

[dsr]

Again I find it incomprehensible that Pace and co, along with Garlick and co, have not got a structured plan in place in the event of relegation, given how we are one of the bookies favourites to go down every year. Tariq or Keiran neither know the terms of the deal and we can only go off Pace’s comments that it’s not a concern. Keiran also got quite a bit wrong / not accurate in his recent article. As for Tariq, why would Pace give him any details - particularly when we’ve still got a chance of stopping up? It would look a bit daft to start talking about relegation and create headlines with 18 games still to play and 4 points off survival with games in hand.

Pace's plan is (certainly in part, if not in full) to make large amounts of money while risking relatively little capital. If he has spent £15m to buy a £100m asset, and the asset doubles in value, he makes £100m, but if it goes belly up he loses £15m. High risk, high reward. It may be that the plan has always included the likelihood that if it all goes belly up (ie. relegation) then the money is written off as a bad investment. When you're making such high reward investments, you must expect to lose one now and then.

If BFC is in desperate financial trouble, then the owners may be planning to shrug their shoulders and chalk one up in the losses column. There is no guarantee that they have any long term plans for the club.

[spt_claret]

Tariq Panja tweeting about Burnley again.

“ Tried to ask Burnley owner Alan Pace what happens to Burnley should the team be relegated. Remember he used the club’s own cash reserves as well as a high interest loan secured against the club to buy it from its former owners. His reply: I don’t want to talk about it.”


Keiran Maguire also commenting.

“Any LBO has risk, an LBO where there’s a 30% chance each year of losing your prime revenue source is very risky.”

Very concerning times ahead by the looks of it

The article in the top of the thread didn't especially concern me, it told us nothing new beyond vague unsubstantiated insinuations about the Dell loan and was mostly just playing to (my and others) fears of a relegation fire sale and freefall.
Pace's comment here, if true, is more concerning. "I don't want to talk about it" isn't positive selling the club, it smacks of burying his head in the sand or ducking the answer. If he was out for a positive sell and has a plan there's answers you can give, even just a simple comment on squad wage structure and parachute payments. To be charitable maybe he was jumped on unexpectedly and just didn't want to talk and the journalist leaves that out for the tweet.
Ultimately though, I understand that private business deals have privacy but there is a fundamental difference between American sports franchises and British football clubs, the latter have always been and still are much more part of their community. US franchises relocate States let alone cities, while even moving ground can be contentious here. People have a lot more personal and communal attachment to their clubs so a bit of greater transparency and communication over finances would go a long long way.

[bobinho]

I’ve never ever known somebody who’s supposed to be running a business remain so quiet when faced with a barrage of criticism & that’s without expecting detailed business plans or life stories, the questions are just normal & valid.

Bloody hell! Garlick hasnt been gone long and you’ve forgotten him already?

[Jakubclaret]

Bloody hell! Garlick hasnt been gone long and you’ve forgotten him already?

When you’ve got a steady hand at the tiller I don’t mind somebody losing the power of speech. When things are going sh1tshaped odds words & sentences come in handy, a Buddhist monk with a khakkhara would give pace a close run on the chatty front when it comes down to tricky questions being answered.

[claretonthecoast1882]

barrage of criticism

Love this weird notion if some journo decides he wants to ask a question he must be answered. I would have preferred to read that Pace told the journo to **** off.

[Jakubclaret]

You wouldn’t get 2 words out of the bloke.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Good to see we've gone back round to demanding the owner lay out his entire business model, or even spend his time answering inane questions instead of getting on with running the business and then deciding he has no plan as a result of not answering said inane question

Not even sure why people are still of the belief that the owner of any business should be wasting his time this way.

I'm fairly certain if he spent a lot of time doing it, some people on here would the complain that he's spending a lot of time answering questions from the media instead of trying to sign players etc.

[arise_sir_charge]

I’ve heard more from Alan Pace in 13
Months than I heard from Mike Garlick in the best part of 10 years.

Another point, there appears to be a finality around relegation in all the scenarios presented. Why’s that?

[ClaretPete001]

I stand by it being shonky given the omission around the 13 month period, relegation clauses, not mentioning Watford's new £50m loan, etc. I was only building on the conjecture about Watford in the article, I said it was guesswork.

Just to illustrate, we've had Paul suggesting that £60m of debt from ALK to the old owners will be written off if we go down and you suggesting it will be payable by BFC if we go down. Obviously both can't be true but both were presented as something that was going to happen. £60m probably isn't classed as minutiae.

I wouldn't dispute that going down with cash in the bank (although it obviously wouldn't be £80m) is a better position than we will likely be in if we go down now but it isn't really necessary to add unfounded "facts" to the scenario.

To be fair, I didn't contradict Paul others did. In fact, I got pulled up on it and issued a mea culpa. I have always used Paul's figures to cast ALK in the best light.

You also conjectured on ALK being able to sell the ground at a profit and a number of other things. And again I gave you a fact - £80 million quid in the bank - and you speculate it is going to be less than that...! You do it without realising.

The reality is that the facts as we know them are troubling. Your speculation that ALK can sell the ground or find revenue from other sources is just that ... speculation. From my perspective, it is that speculation, which distorts the debate. The media has latched onto the club it because it is self evidently problematic.

With all due respect your assertions the article is "shonky" based on what Watford are doing is not helpful. From my perspective, the article is self evidently, at least, justifiable - Burnley probably are the least best prepared to cope with relegation - you night disagree but you can hardly say that with the certainty that would let you describe it as "shonky".