Are we still going down?

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 11:11 am

I don't really get why people think we've left ourselves too much to do. We're 7 points behind the team in 14th and we have 4 games in hand on them, so 5 more points are available to us than them.

We've got just under half the season to play yet with a myriad of permutations in terms of our results, everyone else's results and the number of games we all have left.

Plenty of twists and turns to come yet.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 11:21 am

Great win yesterday, but we still have plenty to do, however if we can keep in the pack until the run-in, when we play Norwich, Watford & Newcastle you never know, I expect Newcastle will be safe by the time of their visit to TM.

Since the Leeds game, when we were dire, we've only lost 1 in 5, and that was narrowly to Liverpool, so we've definitely became harder to beat again, now we just need to turns these draws into wins, yesterday was a welcome step in that direction, and we're now off the bottom, plus our GD is a huge advantage if it gets really tight, I only hope we've not left it too late to make our move.

bodge · Post by **bodge** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 1:05 pm

We have 16 games left, that's a lot of football and we've got Man U, Arsenal and Liverpool out of the way. As quoonbeatz says lots of twists and turns yet and a massive 3 games coming up for Brentford, let's see how they cope with the pressure.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 1:40 pm

I have several neighbours who support Rovers… they stopped trying to tease me a few weeks ago; they could see it was pointless, I just smiled and said… yes we need to find some form, but Burnley will recover and Rovers will fall away, so be careful taking the p1ss… I have always had the feeling, bad as things got… this was not out season to go down. One swallow doesn’t bring summer but I remain confident we can end up lower mid table, about three places lower than I hoped, but staying up with plenty to spare. Still confident, perhaps a little more so now.

Bosscat · Post by **Bosscat** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 1:51 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Sun Feb 20, 2022 1:40 pm
I have several neighbours who support Rovers… they stopped trying to tease me a few weeks ago; they could see it was pointless, I just smiled and said… yes we need to find some form, but Burnley will recover and Rovers will fall away, so be careful taking the p1ss… I have always had the feeling, bad as things got… this was not out season to go down. One swallow doesn’t bring summer but I remain confident we can end up lower mid table, about three places lower than I hoped, but staying up with plenty to spare. Still confident, perhaps a little more so now.

leelad · Post by **leelad** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 2:08 pm

Yesterday was a step forward in the right direction and should give the squad a huge boost. Now we need to aim for back to back wins. It might not come on Wednesday, but I think we will have to do this at some point. I think we will need another 6 wins from the remaining 16 games and a couple of draws.

Culmclaret · Post by **Culmclaret** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 2:15 pm

Was sure a few weeks ago that we were dead and buried but we have left ourselves enough time (just) to have a shot at it. As in previous tough campaigns we have managed to tighten up at the back and in the past two or three games there is evidence that we are giving the opposition much more to think about when we attack. It is still a massive ask and we only stand a chance if we can keep substantially injury free, but at least it looks like it is not going to be a meek surrender

jos · Post by **jos** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 2:36 pm

As long as our fate doesn’t come down to the last game of the season, I’d hate it if Newcastle sent us out of the league.

yorkyclaret · Post by **yorkyclaret** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 3:25 pm

Got to keep Weghorst and Cornet playing, both look injury prone but with them playing, we stay up.

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 3:54 pm

Yes. Yesterday was brilliant and an example of us doing exactly what we've been doing for 6/ 7 years, but we need to be doing it every single week from now on and that's just too big an ask I fear. All slightly too late, sadly. Hope I'm wrong.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 4:05 pm

Dark Cloud wrote: ↑
Sun Feb 20, 2022 3:54 pm
Yes. Yesterday was brilliant and an example of us doing exactly what we've been doing for 6/ 7 years, but we need to be doing it every single week from now on and that's just too big an ask I fear. All slightly too late, sadly. Hope I'm wrong.

We don't need to do it every single week though do we, 16 games left and 5/6 wins needed at the most along with a few draws could well be enough.

What works in our favour is we're used to this pressure scenario, battle hardened if you will, whereas teams like Brentford, Everton and Leeds are not.

jojomk1 · Post by **jojomk1** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 4:21 pm

Four matches in the next two weeks will see our "games in hand" almost cleared against all sides except Brentford

Ask the same question then

NewClaret · Post by **NewClaret** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 4:34 pm

quoonbeatz wrote: ↑
Sun Feb 20, 2022 11:11 am
I don't really get why people think we've left ourselves too much to do. We're 7 points behind the team in 14th and we have 4 games in hand on them, so 5 more points are available to us than them.

We've got just under half the season to play yet with a myriad of permutations in terms of our results, everyone else's results and the number of games we all have left.

Plenty of twists and turns to come yet.

I think my pessimism is based on past results. Not sure what the stat is, but sure we only won 2 in 12 months or something like that. We need a lot of wins now and our recent form (being last 12 months) vs last game, doesn’t suggest we will have enough in attack to get us those goals/wins.

All this said, I do think our strongest eleven is very solid defensively - a top half team. That’s backed by the stats - the draws, GD, etc. I can see us getting draws. We just need the wins hence my “caution to the wind” post the other day. Our GD is massively ahead of our competition - that “extra point effectively in the bag - so I think we need to take some risks to turn wins to draws.

Not on Wednesday though. I’d be over the moon with 0-0 and another solid defensive performance.

Roosterbooster · Post by **Roosterbooster** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 8:12 pm

I'm pretty worried. But when you look at points differences, and games in hand, and who we still have to play... if we get decent results against our rivals, we could be fine

Norwich
0 pts, 3 games
Still to play? Away

Watford
1 pt, 2 games
Still to play? Away

Newcastle
5 pts, 2 games
Still to play? Home

Everton
5 pts, 1 game
Still to play? Home

Leeds
6pts, 2 games
Still to play? No

Brentford
7pts, 4 games
Still to play? Away

Crystal Palace
9pts, 3 games
Still to play? Away

Aston Villa
10pts, 2 games
Still to play? Home

Roosterbooster · Post by **Roosterbooster** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 8:13 pm

Brentford could be the team to chase

Newcastleclaret93 · Post by **Newcastleclaret93** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 8:15 pm

Roosterbooster wrote: ↑
Sun Feb 20, 2022 8:12 pm
I'm pretty worried. But when you look at points differences, and games in hand, and who we still have to play... if we get decent results against our rivals, we could be fine

Norwich
0 pts, 3 games
Still to play? Away

Watford
1 pt, 2 games
Still to play? Away

Newcastle
5 pts, 2 games
Still to play? Home

Everton
5 pts, 1 game
Still to play? Home

Leeds
6pts, 2 games
Still to play? No

Brentford
7pts, 4 games
Still to play? Away

Crystal Palace
9pts, 3 games
Still to play? Away

Aston Villa
10pts, 2 games
Still to play? Home

Brentford have got to be the team to target

boatshed bill · Post by **boatshed bill** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 8:21 pm

No reason to pick on individual targets to overtake.
We need something like 1.4 points per game and we'll be fine,
I don't give a monkey's who we relegate if we can do that.

dougcollins · Post by **dougcollins** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 8:31 pm

I haven't received any texts from my Leeds supporting colleagues this weekend. And that hasn't happened for some time.

I sense a disturbance in The Force.

Bin Ont Turf · Post by **Bin Ont Turf** » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:26 pm

Just heard Gary Neville say that it would be the greatest of escapes if we stay up. I agree.

If we do stay up make sure you all get your season ticket for next season, because we'll be finishing in the top 10, guaranteed.

Bullabill · Post by **Bullabill** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:50 am

The fat lady has Tonsillitis.

SydneyClaret · Post by **SydneyClaret** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:11 am

Bin Ont Turf wrote: ↑
Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:26 pm
Just heard Gary Neville say that it would be the greatest of escapes if we stay up. I agree.

If we do stay up make sure you all get your season ticket for next season, because we'll be finishing in the top 10, guaranteed.

I genuinely believe this. With another 3-4 shrewd signings the future would look rosy. Similar to Leicesters transformation. Just a shame a few bad transfer windows took us to this position. I still think it wouldn’t be disastrous though if we did go down. We have some very very good championship players, some good academy players would get a chance and we would have a strong chance of returning at the first attempt.

lakedistrictclaret · Post by **lakedistrictclaret** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:17 am

We have sixteen games left.
That's four groups of four matches. If we can get five points from each of those four groups, that would take us to 37 points, which may be enough.

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:25 pm

Have always been the eternal optimist and thought the team & manager had enough to make sure we didn't go down a couple of months ago, but games came and watching them at Leeds & Watford I thought, well I might believe in you but if you don't believe in yourselves then we really are going down, genuinely worried. Yet since Arsenal I sensed a change to what I believe in yet they were still just draws when we needed wins, yes I know, one swallow and all that but I'm feeling more confident, as others have said GD could be the reason we stay up.

I'm going for the great escape but we will soon know as we will eat our games in hand relatively soon and I would always rather have the points but...........

dibraidio · Post by **dibraidio** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:54 pm

38 points from 38 games is normally enough. Interesting to look who is behind the point a game target.

Leeds -1
Everton -1
Brentford -2
Newcastle -2
Burnley -5
Watford -6
Norwich -8

Mathematically we could get to 38 points with as few as 3 more wins but that would only allow us to lose one more game and we've got City and Chelsea to play. A more likely target might be 5 wins and 6 draws. If we can keep it tight at the back like we have for the last 5 games and start scoring a few more we are definitely in with a shout. Hopefully that victory at Brighton has given the lads the belief that they can start turning draws into wins.

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:57 pm

lakedistrictclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:17 am
We have sixteen games left.
That's four groups of four matches. If we can get five points from each of those four groups, that would take us to 37 points, which may be enough.

Right now, I'd sell my footballing soul for 37 points.
And gamble on it being enough.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:04 pm

yorkyclaret wrote: ↑
Sun Feb 20, 2022 3:25 pm
Got to keep Weghorst and Cornet playing, both look injury prone but with them playing, we stay up.

Weghorst is not at all injury prone.

BleedingClaret · Post by **BleedingClaret** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:07 pm

Roosterbooster wrote: ↑
Sun Feb 20, 2022 8:12 pm
I'm pretty worried. But when you look at points differences, and games in hand, and who we still have to play... if we get decent results against our rivals, we could be fine

Norwich
0 pts, 3 games
Still to play? Away

Watford
1 pt, 2 games
Still to play? Away

Newcastle
5 pts, 2 games
Still to play? Home

Everton
5 pts, 1 game
Still to play? Home

Leeds
6pts, 2 games
Still to play? No

Brentford
7pts, 4 games
Still to play? Away

Crystal Palace
9pts, 3 games
Still to play? Away

Aston Villa
10pts, 2 games
Still to play? Home

Still to play Villa Away too

Definately still in our own hands

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:08 pm

If you extrapolate the form of the last 6 matches, or even last 10, across the league for the rest of the season we'd be staying up. There's certainly still a chance and always has been, just some people got a bit carried away and seemed to view it as a badge of honour to declare with more and more hyperbole how we were definitely going down.

Devils_Advocate · Post by **Devils_Advocate** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:14 pm

aggi wrote: ↑
Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:08 pm
If you extrapolate the form of the last 6 matches, or even last 10, across the league for the rest of the season we'd be staying up. There's certainly still a chance and always has been, just some people got a bit carried away and seemed to view it as a badge of honour to declare with more and more hyperbole how we were definitely going down.

Is the hyperbole and different from those who say we are definitely staying up as in my book they are just two sides of the same arse cheek?

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:32 pm

BleedingClaret wrote: ↑
Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:07 pm
Still to play Villa Away too

Definately still in our own hands

And we are more than capable of getting points against Wolves, West Ham & Leicester, considering we have already done so against all three this season.

That just leaves Man City, Chelsea & Spurs (x2)

Newcastleclaret93 · Post by **Newcastleclaret93** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:33 pm

It will be a mighty turn around but that result against a very good Brighton team gives us all hope.

Let’s take it one game at a time and try get three points against spurs on Wednesday.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:41 pm

Bosscat · Post by **Bosscat** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:06 pm

Super Computer has changed its predictions...

: 20220221_160506.jpg (576.66 KiB) Viewed 2651 times

Bosscat · Post by **Bosscat** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:12 pm

Bosscat wrote: ↑
Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:06 pm
Super Computer has changed its predictions...

20220221_160506.jpg

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/s ... er-league/

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:13 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote: ↑
Mon Feb 21, 2022 3:14 pm
Is the hyperbole and different from those who say we are definitely staying up as in my book they are just two sides of the same arse cheek?

Those haven't been too bad this season that I've noticed but there definitely used to be some comedy posts with us as an established premier league club who shouldn't be anywhere near relegation.

Devils_Advocate · Post by **Devils_Advocate** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:25 pm

aggi wrote: ↑
Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:13 pm
Those haven't been too bad this season that I've noticed but there definitely used to be some comedy posts with us as an established premier league club who shouldn't be anywhere near relegation.

I know what you are saying but I think you just notice more when someone is being overly negative/pessimistic than if they are being uber positive (and it is less likely to annoy you).

I would say on balance more people over the season have stated we will definitely stay up than have stated we will definitely go down which given our position for a lot of the season makes me think that if you are gonna call being certain of something (either way) hyperbole than there is more hyperbole from people stating we wont go down.

Now this is to be expected on a football fans messageboard so no shock there but I dont think it makes for an environment where you can have good objective discussions free from name calling and bickering. This thread has done pretty well but maybe it was because I framed it as a thread for people to share their more pessimistic viewpoints people seem to have offered them sensibly and the optimists seem to have accepted them in good faith and discussed them in a constructive manner

MT03ALG · Post by **MT03ALG** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:35 pm

I have us to finish on 55 points but I guess I was feeling optimistic even before the Brighton result

Elizabeth · Post by **Elizabeth** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 6:22 pm

Yes we are still going down , the difference is we are going to go down fighting which didn't look the case a few weeks ago

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 6:49 pm

Saturday was the first game that all 4 of the summer's transfer window new signing outfield players started. Alongside them we had Wout Weghorst, signed less than 3 weeks earlier. Half the team were, in effect, new. Based on how all these "new" signings performed, with other team members putting in good performances - special "shout out" to Josh Brownhill - the team is in great form and no reason why this form can't continue.

The interesting question for Wednesday: does James Tarkowski come back in for Nathan Collins? Which one will be better up against a resurgent Harry Kane? That should be a tough call for Sean Dyche to make.

UTC

jojomk1 · Post by **jojomk1** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:06 pm

Paul Waine wrote: ↑
Mon Feb 21, 2022 6:49 pm

The interesting question for Wednesday: does James Tarkowski come back in for Nathan Collins? Which one will be better up against a resurgent Harry Kane? That should be a tough call for Sean Dyche to make.

UTC

Kane looked very sharp on Sunday, current England striker and Capt

Match him up against a 21yr old with 9 apps or a 29 yr old with over 200 apps ?

Collins is going to be very good, one of our best ever signings potentially

But results needed at the moment suggest JT starting for me

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:09 pm

Paul Waine wrote: ↑
Mon Feb 21, 2022 6:49 pm
Saturday was the first game that all 4 of the summer's transfer window new signing outfield players started. Alongside them we had Wout Weghorst, signed less than 3 weeks earlier. Half the team were, in effect, new. Based on how all these "new" signings performed, with other team members putting in good performances - special "shout out" to Josh Brownhill - the team is in great form and no reason why this form can't continue.

The interesting question for Wednesday: does James Tarkowski come back in for Nathan Collins? Which one will be better up against a resurgent Harry Kane? That should be a tough call for Sean Dyche to make.

UTC

Yes since the Leeds game, and the lengthy break there appears a freshness to the squad, it does make you wonder how much Wood's departure has changed the dynamic in the dressing room.

Weghorst has definitely provided everyone with a huge lift, and his introduction has also brought out the best in others, Brownhill & Lennon notably.

Tough call for SD between Collins and Tarkowski, but I'm sure he'd rather have that dilemma than be scrambling around for centre backs as we were at the start of last season, when we lined up with Dunne and Long at Leicester.

FeedTheArf · Post by **FeedTheArf** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:12 pm

Friday night I was convinced we were down. I’d made my peace with it and looking forward to some decent local derbies.

Saturday night…

AfloatinClaret · Post by **AfloatinClaret** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:39 pm

Bosscat wrote: ↑
Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:06 pm
Super Computer has changed its predictions...

Computer says No.

Tall Paul · Post by **Tall Paul** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:49 pm

Bosscat wrote: ↑
Mon Feb 21, 2022 4:06 pm
Super Computer has changed its predictions...

20220221_160506.jpg

Not really, fivethirtyeight has consistently been predicting a 17th place finish, although the 34% chance of relegation is the lowest it's been for a while.

Caernarfon_Claret · Post by **Caernarfon_Claret** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 8:58 pm

Remember this from 2018/19 season?

: Screenshot_20220221-205718.png (246.15 KiB) Viewed 2289 times

: Screenshot_20220221-205655.png (253.67 KiB) Viewed 2289 times

: Screenshot_20220221-205551.png (235.97 KiB) Viewed 2289 times

Caernarfon_Claret · Post by **Caernarfon_Claret** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:00 pm

If we could get to 40 points then it's possible now.

Mind you 40 points might not be enough.

Caernarfon_Claret · Post by **Caernarfon_Claret** » Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:00 pm

And I know the problem then was conceding goals rather than not scoring.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Feb 22, 2022 9:11 am

Devils_Advocate wrote: ↑
Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:25 pm
I know what you are saying but I think you just notice more when someone is being overly negative/pessimistic than if they are being uber positive (and it is less likely to annoy you).

I would say on balance more people over the season have stated we will definitely stay up than have stated we will definitely go down which given our position for a lot of the season makes me think that if you are gonna call being certain of something (either way) hyperbole than there is more hyperbole from people stating we wont go down.

Now this is to be expected on a football fans messageboard so no shock there but I dont think it makes for an environment where you can have good objective discussions free from name calling and bickering. This thread has done pretty well but maybe it was because I framed it as a thread for people to share their more pessimistic viewpoints people seem to have offered them sensibly and the optimists seem to have accepted them in good faith and discussed them in a constructive manner

Possibly less noticeable. I'd put a lot of the current relegation certainty doom-mongers in with the "In Dyche we trust" brigade who refuse to countenance any questioning or negativity.

There's a lot of the season to go, we're looking fairly solid and we have games in hand but we've only won two all season. We might go down, we might stay up. It's all still open.

EarbyClaret · Post by **EarbyClaret** » Tue Feb 22, 2022 10:21 am

If you include Lennon - whilst acknowledging we re-signed him - that was 5 outfield players 'new' to this season.

Lennon's contribution over the last 4/5 games has been outstanding he seems perfectly suited to the change of style brought about by Weghorst replacing Wood. There's lots of talk about energising the side with younger players and in addition to McNeil we're now seeing more intensity from Roberts and Brownhill in particular - but releasing Lennon from predominantly defensive duties has been a revelation. He looks in peak physical (and seemingly mental) condition and his pace is enabling us to get further up the pitch and into more dangerous areas

Ric_C · Post by **Ric_C** » Tue Feb 22, 2022 10:56 am

The biggest change for me recently is that we have obviously improved, due to the new signings bedding in and our pep talk after the Leeds game.

Also some of the lower mid table teams (who we have to play quite a few of) are now faltering or in really bad form.

Leicester
Everton
Leeds
Palace
Brentford
Villa

In five games time it could be in a situation where the bottom teams find a bit of form and the mid table teams get dragged into it and it could be any 3 from 10.

But as others have said, concentrate on our results and everything will take care of itself.