Russia Invades

[Corky]

I've just watched it on Netflix, and if you want a sense of how determined the Ukranian people are about keeping their independence and being a part of Europe, then watch the documentary Winter On Fire. I found it absolutely amazing.

[Somethingfishy]

I'm starting to get a little worried....snd irritated by Zelensky. His resolve and spirit are unquestionable but his lack of genuine political knowhow and background are perhaps starting to show.
He seems determined to get Nato involved in this war despite the clear geopolitical no no of that. First with the no fly zone and now tonight with the nuclear power plant fire.
If Russia was genuinely targetting this they would surely have hit more than a training centre. His claims tanks were using thermal imagining to target the plant just sound far fetched. How would he even know that?

[bfcjg]

This is the most mental thing ive seen on social media
IMG_20220304_052742.jpg
It's a sad indictment of how easily people are controlled by what they read on the Internet.
We really are f***ed

We can chose not to drive,to drive slower or use public transport. The Ukrainian people have 2 choices survive or die, if the West refuses Russian oil etc and it shortens the war I'll take the minuscule discomfort thank you.

[Indecisive]

I'm starting to get a little worried....snd irritated by Zelensky. His resolve and spirit are unquestionable but his lack of genuine political knowhow and background are perhaps starting to show.
He seems determined to get Nato involved in this war despite the clear geopolitical no no of that. First with the no fly zone and now tonight with the nuclear power plant fire.
If Russia was genuinely targetting this they would surely have hit more than a training centre. His claims tanks were using thermal imagining to target the plant just sound far fetched. How would he even know that?

On the basis he’s getting real time info from the Americans, it’s probably safe to say he’s getting a decent amount of guidance and advice from them as well. They could be having a large influence on the communications coming out from Zelenkskyj

[claretonthecoast1882]

I read it and liked it because I think putting up with some disruption to what we normally do is worth it

I assume (well hope to be honest) that you think its profiteering and isn't necessary, rather than the slightly more darker explanation

Let's hope it is the profiteering he doesn't like rather than someone seeming annoyed at things might cost a bit more in the short term while another country is invaded and people living there are forced to flee the country while losing everything they have.

[gandhisflipflop]

BBC iPlayer - Panorama - Putin's War in Ukraine
BBC
3 days ago

Don't think it will come through as a link but it's on iplayer and worth a watch

Wouldn’t trust them as far as I could throw them to give a reasonable balanced viewpoint

[gandhisflipflop]

Sounds like I'd better get myself a moped for work then, as it's slowly becoming unviable to run my car like I have been.

Just to give you an indication. The crude oil has shot up to over 110 dollars a barrel, and the local price shot up 10p overnight. The only suggestion I can think of is to see if you can try and look into getting a fuel card, as them companies try and give you lower prices than pumps.

[Billy Balfour]

He's not the Iranian president anymore.

Nearly a decade since he was in power. He certainly doesn't speak for the current regime, and he's barred from running for office. In the recent past, he has criticised them for their harsh crackdown on protestors.

[Billy Balfour]

Abramovich still isn't under UK sanctions. He's probably one of the most prominent oligarchs in the world, given his association/ownership of Chelsea, yet we hit the low-hanging fruit, rather than him. Aye, a guy who has privileged access to Putin, and even bangs on about being able to organise 'peace talks' at the drop of a hat through his privileged access to Putin, yet he remains untouched. It stinks.

[Lancasterclaret]

I'm starting to get a little worried....snd irritated by Zelensky. His resolve and spirit are unquestionable but his lack of genuine political knowhow and background are perhaps starting to show.
He seems determined to get Nato involved in this war despite the clear geopolitical no no of that. First with the no fly zone and now tonight with the nuclear power plant fire.
If Russia was genuinely targetting this they would surely have hit more than a training centre. His claims tanks were using thermal imagining to target the plant just sound far fetched. How would he even know that?

I don't know to be honest

But the fact that the Russians were willing to fire inside a Nuclear Plant complex isn't a good sign

I think you have to remember something though, Ukraine is fighting for its survival as an independent country, free to do what it wants and have no one to tell it what to do.

How much would you do if it was your country?

[RicardoMontalban]

I don't know to be honest

But the fact that the Russians were willing to fire inside a Nuclear Plant complex isn't a good sign

I think you have to remember something though, Ukraine is fighting for its survival as an independent country, free to do what it wants and have no one to tell it what to do.

How much would you do if it was your country?

That’s the thing isn’t it? What do people expect of him? How would other leaders around the world respond in identical an identical situation? Ukraine is fighting for its very survival and if reports in The Times are accurate he’s been the target of three assassination attempts this week. I’d suggest he’s not doing too bad in an almost unimaginably awful situation.

[Hipper]

More on the air war from here:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... nt-march-3

Ukrainian Airspace Remains Contested

Russia has not achieved air superiority over Ukraine as of March 3. The Ukrainian Air Force continues operating a week after the invasion began, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting that Ukrainian Su-24s and Su-25s conducted airstrikes in Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv oblasts in the last 24 hours.[4] Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted a Russian missile targeting Kyiv’s main railway station, which remains packed with refugees, the night of March 2.[5] Russian failures to secure air superiority likely reduce the effectiveness and extent of Russian air and missile attacks, increase the risk to Russian airborne and air assault operations, and force Russian ground combat units to face periodic air attack, likely degrading their operations to some extent. Russia’s failures in the air superiority fight are very surprising; ISW cannot offer any explanations for them at this time.

'Russia’s failures in the air superiority fight are very surprising; ISW cannot offer any explanations for them at this time.'

[Lancasterclaret]

More on the air war from here:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... nt-march-3

Ukrainian Airspace Remains Contested

Russia has not achieved air superiority over Ukraine as of March 3. The Ukrainian Air Force continues operating a week after the invasion began, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting that Ukrainian Su-24s and Su-25s conducted airstrikes in Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv oblasts in the last 24 hours.[4] Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted a Russian missile targeting Kyiv’s main railway station, which remains packed with refugees, the night of March 2.[5] Russian failures to secure air superiority likely reduce the effectiveness and extent of Russian air and missile attacks, increase the risk to Russian airborne and air assault operations, and force Russian ground combat units to face periodic air attack, likely degrading their operations to some extent. Russia’s failures in the air superiority fight are very surprising; ISW cannot offer any explanations for them at this time.

'Russia’s failures in the air superiority fight are very surprising; ISW cannot offer any explanations for them at this time.'

The other two articles did try to offer reasons for failures, which the chief one appears to be lack of pilot training

See that Russian aircraft bombed a railway station at Korosten overnight, which is one of evacuation (and presumably resupply) routes out of Kyi'v

[Lancasterclaret]

An idea of the disinformation war being waged by Russia

First clip, an interview at a very tidy looking Hostomel airbase now under Russian control

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499643176998641664

Second clip, taken at a not so tidy looking Hostomel airbase the day before while the fighting was going on

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 0033240065

[Hipper]

Iranian President not too happy with Putin

https://twitter.com/Ahmadinejad1956/sta ... 5803579402

Aren't Iran currently messing about in Yemen and Syria, perhaps Lebanon too plus of course a permanent threat to annihilate Israel.

[CrosspoolClarets]

I’m not going to comment on this Twitter thread given our twitchiness of political debate other than to say that it gives video commentary from Corbyn, Abbott and others about Ukraine. You know, the ones who could have been leading us through this crisis. If you wish to, feel free to click and have a look…….

https://twitter.com/hurryupharry/status ... 90081?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

Aren't Iran currently messing about in Yemen and Syria, perhaps Lebanon too plus of course a permanent threat to annihilate Israel.

Oh, its like the Taliban calling for restraint but as has been pointed out, he's not been the President for a while

Still, I'm grabbing anything that might point towards a way out of this

[Ipreferaflan]

I don't know to be honest

But the fact that the Russians were willing to fire inside a Nuclear Plant complex isn't a good sign

I think you have to remember something though, Ukraine is fighting for its survival as an independent country, free to do what it wants and have no one to tell it what to do.

How much would you do if it was your country?

Exactly this - before being critical of him, let's for a second think of what he and his country is going through. If we were in the same situation we would be asking and expecting the same from other countries (obviously we would have the support from NATO).

[Hipper]

Nuclear Power Stations in Ukraine.

Nuclear Power Stations.jpg (77.22 KiB) Viewed 2575 times

This map seems to show that in the north there are two movements towards the western plants and in the south progress there too.

Disabling these seems like a good strategy to force the country to surrender as they apparently supply 22% of their energy (The Sun says 50% of their electricity). They don't have to destroy them, just force them to be closed down, as the BBC suggests.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60532634

See post at 0814.

[Lancasterclaret]

Nuclear Power Stations in Ukraine.


Nuclear Power Stations.jpg

This map seems to show that in the north there are two movements towards the western plants and in the south progress there too.

Disabling these seems like a good strategy to force the country to surrender as they apparently supply 22% of their energy (The Sun says 50% of their electricity). They don't have to destroy them, just force them to be closed down, as the BBC suggests.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60532634

See post at 0814.

Worth mentioning that the areas they occupy are not the same as the areas they control. They just don't have the manpower.

That is crucial to how and what they can do from here

[IanMcL]

I get confused as to who are the really bad folk.
RasPutOUT or Boris Johnsonsky and his shirtless of all governments.

[Lancasterclaret]

Russian passenger aircraft getting directed by a member of the ground crew using a Ukrainian flag in Israel

https://twitter.com/TheBelaaz/status/14 ... 8870435842

[elwaclaret]

Hope this is true and they start to sense the way the wind is blowing on this.

There’s a post below saying the Russians/military should overthrow Putin, and I could see that, but only really if China back the West.

I can’t see why they wouldn’t. They need the West and our consumers a lot more than they need Russia.

China backing the West is seriously dangerous, China has no love for the west - and in fairness has little reason to since Truman turned his back on Mao ( who first looked West for help)… Eisenhower, JFK, LBJ and Nixon all continued the same Anti-China campaign and American ‘covert’ operations got increasingly outrageous (why Britain refused to fight in Vietnam after Laos for example).

It is a huge call for China who have been building bridges throughout the Cold War with their traditional enemy Russia as communal protection from Western interference, and of late reverted to a more dictatorial leadership themselves. China really is between a rock and a hard place.

[atlantalad]

Would it be unreasonable for the international community to place a bounty on the head of Putin ( and cronies if possible). Say $1billion bounty. This is a cheap option compared to the money expended already. Bounty could be via UN ( I know unlikely as it sanctions violence) or via Ukraine govt itself ( funded by the western countries) hence not directly NATO. Later option more acceptable as it's rumoured Zelenskyy has assassination squads after him. Sure that amount of money on offer would entice competing militia gangs in / outside Russia to take him and his cronies out. Competing gangs trying to get the bounty prize would undoubtedly lead to potential success as there would create multiple methods/ opportunities to eliminate him. May be I have been watching too many 007 films.

Another thought - if Russian did indeed attack the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station isn't that act in itself an act of nuclear war? Doesn't necessarily need to be a conventional nuclear armed IBM.

[elwaclaret]

Would it be unreasonable for the international community to place a bounty on the head of Putin ( and cronies if possible). Say $1billion bounty. This is a cheap option compared to the money expended already. Bounty could be via UN ( I know unlikely as it sanctions violence) or via Ukraine govt itself ( funded by the western countries) hence not directly NATO. Later option more acceptable as it's rumoured Zelenskyy has assassination squads after him. Sure that amount of money on offer would entice competing militia gangs in / outside Russia to take him and his cronies out. Competing gangs trying to get the bounty prize would undoubtedly lead to potential success as there would create multiple methods/ opportunities to eliminate him. May be I have been watching too many 007 films.

Another thought - if Russian did indeed attack the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station isn't that act in itself an act of nuclear war? Doesn't necessarily need to be a conventional nuclear armed IBM.

Because that sets an impossible precedent to contain- how many signatures would be needed? Whose say carries what weight?
Until lately state leaders had immunity from prosecution… for life. That changed with Pinochet in Chile but it has to be done legally or it will quickly lead to every difficult situation being solved by assassination, destabilising every country in the world - making it very like Central America or South America in the 80’s and 90’s

[elwaclaret]

… just to add there will be many people covertly looking at options, but it will not be announced and the World hopes it will come first from the Russians themselves.

[TheFamilyCat]

Would it be unreasonable for the international community to place a bounty on the head of Putin ( and cronies if possible). Say $1billion bounty. This is a cheap option compared to the money expended already. Bounty could be via UN ( I know unlikely as it sanctions violence) or via Ukraine govt itself ( funded by the western countries) hence not directly NATO. Later option more acceptable as it's rumoured Zelenskyy has assassination squads after him. Sure that amount of money on offer would entice competing militia gangs in / outside Russia to take him and his cronies out. Competing gangs trying to get the bounty prize would undoubtedly lead to potential success as there would create multiple methods/ opportunities to eliminate him. May be I have been watching too many 007 films.

Another thought - if Russian did indeed attack the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station isn't that act in itself an act of nuclear war? Doesn't necessarily need to be a conventional nuclear armed IBM.

I'd do it for much less than a billion.

[elwaclaret]

Belarusia President starting to try to distance himself and Putin? He maybe a little late to the party.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1499 ... 27939?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

Belarusia President starting to try to distance himself and Putin? He maybe a little late to the party.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1499 ... 27939?s=21

Two ways of looking at this

1) He's seen the way the wind is blowing and is pulling out quickly

2) He knows he's not going to be needed

What it does do for sure is make it very hard for Russia to cut off Ukraine from the West now

The next key move is if he refuses to let Russian troops and aircraft use Belarussian airspace and land to launch ops

That would be huge, and a clear sign that things are not going well

[claretonthecoast1882]

Belarusia President starting to try to distance himself and Putin? He maybe a little late to the party.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1499 ... 27939?s=21

Way too late, his actions and the turning of a blind eye should never be forgot

[fatboy47]

I’m not going to comment on this Twitter thread given our twitchiness of political debate other than to say that it gives video commentary from Corbyn, Abbott and others about Ukraine. You know, the ones who could have been leading us through this crisis. If you wish to, feel free to click and have a look…….

https://twitter.com/hurryupharry/status ... 90081?s=21

Grow up.

[elwaclaret]

Grow up.

Quite right

Did Starmer no harm at all. He did not mess around and got them all on message pretty quickly. THIS IS NOT THE TIME For party politics.

[aggi]

I’m not going to comment on this Twitter thread given our twitchiness of political debate other than to say that it gives video commentary from Corbyn, Abbott and others about Ukraine. You know, the ones who could have been leading us through this crisis. If you wish to, feel free to click and have a look…….

https://twitter.com/hurryupharry/status ... 90081?s=21

Strange when Nigel Farage is making the same arguments as Diane Abbott (albeit it seems that Abbott's comments were before the invasion and she's now withdrawn them whereas Farage's were after the invasion).

(Also, obviously I have no idea how reliable that fairly small twitter account is.)

[elwaclaret]

Russian Lower house pass bill meaning anyone protesting about the war faces a 15 stretch in Prison. No obvious sign of a split opening there.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1499 ... 04580?s=21

[GodIsADeeJay81]

China will not be broadcasting this weekends PL games, due to the show of support for the Ukraine.

[Mala591]

If NATO ‘stands by’ and doesn’t intervene Russia will succeed in their illegal occupation of Ukraine. To save thousands of lives Ukraine should accept the inevitable and surrender. Europe will have changed drastically and will be a much more unstable and dangerous place to live.

If NATO do intervene with ‘overpowering force’ to liberate Ukraine then all hell will be let loose for a few weeks but in the medium/long term Europe will be a much more stable and safe place to live.

[elwaclaret]

China clearly worried about the impact of the war for them.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1499 ... 61860?s=21

[Colburn_Claret]

Way too late, his actions and the turning of a blind eye should never be forgot

Whether he changes tack or not, he needs punishing for his crimes against Belarusians.

[elwaclaret]

If NATO ‘stands by’ and doesn’t intervene Russia will succeed in their illegal occupation of Ukraine. To save thousands of lives Ukraine should accept the inevitable and surrender. Europe will have changed drastically and will be a much more unstable and dangerous place to live.

If NATO do intervene with ‘overpowering force’ to liberate Ukraine then all hell will be let loose for a few weeks but in the medium/long term Europe will be a much more stable and safe place to live.

For NATO to end the War by force would require a massive undertaking, with little reason to expect success. It would mean mass targeted attacks of bases and infrastructure within Russia itself and history tells us this is a really, really bad idea - the Russian Civil War, Napoleon’s retreat from Moscow and Histler stalling at Stalingrad… all suggest it would not end well.

[AlargeClaret]

The most surprising element is “ why is Russias huge Air Force mainly grounded “ They’ve a staggering numerical advantage and why they haven’t smashed the UKR air power to pieces is a huge mystery . It’s unthinkable that they’d invade without enabling this. I can only think that they’ve either been telling porkies about their operational strength / lacking ground crew hardware or are purposely holding back ( unlikely surely )

[Lancasterclaret]

If NATO ‘stands by’ and doesn’t intervene Russia will succeed in their illegal occupation of Ukraine. To save thousands of lives Ukraine should accept the inevitable and surrender. Europe will have changed drastically and will be a much more unstable and dangerous place to live.

If NATO do intervene with ‘overpowering force’ to liberate Ukraine then all hell will be let loose for a few weeks but in the medium/long term Europe will be a much more stable and safe place to live.

I don't see how that doesn't result in Russia using nukes

Their battlefield doctrine suggests that they will

Its not something that can be risked (unless things change drastically in the Ukraine)

[AlargeClaret]

I bloody hope NATO does “ stand by” or were in a nuclear war . Though must be said China are no bosom buddy of Russia

[bfcjg]

I think Putin is trying to drag the west in and tell the people I told you so look at the aggressive West. It's hard to watch but let the Ukraine army destroy the Russians by proxy,arm them to the teeth,give intelligencecand drones, let them fly from NATO countries as per Russians are in Belarus. It needs a regime change.

[elwaclaret]

Russians voting with their feet (and trains)…

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1499 ... 33793?s=21

[CrosspoolClarets]

Strange when Nigel Farage is making the same arguments as Diane Abbott (albeit it seems that Abbott's comments were before the invasion and she's now withdrawn them whereas Farage's were after the invasion).

(Also, obviously I have no idea how reliable that fairly small twitter account is.)

I tend to agree. Farage is equally accused of allegedly having associations with Russia as are Corbyn, Abbott and co.

The smallish Twitter account was retweeted by Andrew Neil so it went to a large audience.

The issue here isn’t party political (though Neil’s retweet, which I didn’t share, was). The issue in my mind is more to do with showing the lack of solidarity in the west about what to do, given the media backdrop in recent days is about how surprisingly united we all are. That lack of solidarity is undoubtedly making Putin feel emboldened so I think it is highly relevant.

[Lancasterclaret]

I tend to agree. Farage is equally accused of allegedly having associations with Russia as are Corbyn, Abbott and co.

The smallish Twitter account was retweeted by Andrew Neil so it went to a large audience.

The issue here isn’t party political (though Neil’s retweet, which I didn’t share, was). The issue in my mind is more to do with showing the lack of solidarity in the west about what to do, given the media backdrop in recent days is about how surprisingly united we all are. That lack of solidarity is undoubtedly making Putin feel emboldened so I think it is highly relevant.

Haway man, they are what, 11 MPs and a very small % of the electorate

If Putin thinks that shows "splits in the West" then he's even madder than I thought he was

[elwaclaret]

One begins to wonder however if the logistical incompetence being shown by the Russian commanders is a form of opposition to what they are being asked to do.

[Lancasterclaret]

Kharki'v today

I think the days of driving around trying to act as normally as possible are gone

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/statu ... 4720860161

[Lancasterclaret]

One begins to wonder however if the logistical incompetence being shown by the Russian commanders is a form of opposition to what they are being asked to do.

I doubt it

Russia is one of the most corrupt societies on the planet, and that will have percolated all through society, and that will include falsifying stuff like readiness reports and stock levels (and then selling the excess on the black market)

[elwaclaret]

Kharki'v today

I think the days of driving around trying to act as normally as possible are gone

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/statu ... 4720860161

Clearly strategic and carefully targeted attacks, either that of those fascist Ukrainian’s blowing up their own cities so they can blame Russia. Either way the West hands are clearly dirty