Russia Invades

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 1:54 pm

Alex Howlett (Naval historian) retweet of a regularly quoted Ukrainian source -

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/statu ... 32070?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 1:55 pm

Alex Howlett (Naval historian) retweet of a regularly quoted Ukrainian source - regarding Russian BTG’s

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/statu ... 32070?s=21

Billy Balfour · Post by **Billy Balfour** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 1:58 pm

The map below is the latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 12 March 2022

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/15 ... tmLQA&s=19

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 2:00 pm

Peter Caddick-Adams, why NATO expansion is not only likely but is now proved almost essential.

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 37793?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 2:04 pm

Kyiv International - Russia now telling its audience that foreign convoys are now being considered legitimate targets - including US convoys. - it seems Russia does not think it is losing well enough, yet.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... 23778?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 2:14 pm

A timely reminder of why the Balkans is such an important part of protecting Western values. (Archduke Ferdinand assassination related photos).

https://twitter.com/rosswcable/status/1 ... 44576?s=21

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 2:16 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 12, 2022 1:32 pm
http://k.uscnpm.org/wap/article.aspx?d=99&id=27365

Interesting article from within China of the strategic situation and how China should be reacting

Needs translating on my link.

ecc · Post by **ecc** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 2:20 pm

Hi burt,

I think this is the documentary you mentioned. I believe Netflix put it up on YT for free viewing a week back.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzNxLzFfR5w&t=15s

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 2:23 pm

Brynn Tannehill, (think tank analyst, former naval aviator) offers her observations.

https://twitter.com/brynntannehill/stat ... 87459?s=21

ecc · Post by **ecc** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 2:30 pm

Sorry if already mentioned but there are these reports of the Russians brining in Syrian and African troops. I'm not too sure of the ability of Syrian soldiers in terms of "military" fighting.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... st-ukraine

If these reports are true, I would take it as a good sign personally.

One think looks certain to me, based on my minimal knowledge of the situation, is that we may well see a latterday Stalingrad (the irony of it all) in Kiev.

It does not augur well.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 2:33 pm

Kyiv International - Italy seizes another oligarchs yacht

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... 89539?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 2:37 pm

DNR Separatists capture 5 Ukrainian tanks, their worse loss since Day one of the war (may have been already on here - retweeted)

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... 03052?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 2:40 pm

BBC look at possible Russian avenues for using chemical weapons

https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1502 ... 61056?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 2:43 pm

Caddick-Adams takes a sideswipe at Liz Truss

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 30850?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 2:46 pm

HISTORY TODAY - looking at the breakdown of East West relations (and yes, my old friend Truman gets a mention)

https://twitter.com/historytoday/status ... 88650?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 2:50 pm

NEXTA - Belarus seem to know it’s a little late to hide their colours, and so follow Russia’s lead on attacking social media

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 29027?s=21

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 3:52 pm

Ukrainians getting increasingly confident

Either they are doing really badly, or they are doing really well

Lots of potential threads on possible peace avenues

I think its safe to say that even if Ukraine agrees to never join NATO, Russia isn't going to try this again, so there is quite a lot of scope for a deal

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 4:02 pm

Sky news update.
Zelenskyy offers further hope of breakthrough after revealing 'concrete' topics being discussed in negotiations

Details are very brief at this stage but, further to our previous post, Ukraine's president appears to have offered another signal that there may have been some significant developments in negotiations.

We don't yet have the full quote from Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but Reuters is reporting him as saying Russian and Ukrainian teams have begun discussing "concrete" proposals rather than "exchanging ultimatums".

Again, these remarks closely follow news of a 75-minute conversation between Vladimir Putin, French president Emmanuel Macron and German leader Olaf Scholz about efforts to "end the war" - details of which all sides are being intriguingly coy about.

We will bring you more information on this all as soon as we get it.

Copy link

24m ago14:11

Putin holds 75-minute call with Macron and Scholz about how 'to end war in Ukraine'

In recent minutes, a couple of intriguing and potentially significant pieces of news have emerged around geopolitical efforts to bring the conflict in Ukraine to a halt.

While French president Emmanuel Macron has been speaking to the Russian leader almost every other day in recent weeks, the pair were joined in a 75-minute phone call today by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

A German government spokesperson said the conversation was "part of ongoing international efforts to end the war in Ukraine" - interestingly adding that the three men agreed to say nothing further about the substance of the phone call.

Perhaps also significantly, it emerged Mr Scholz had earlier spoken to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about the situation.

In a separate statement, the Kremlin said Mr Putin told the pair about the state of negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv and responded to their concerns about the humanitarian situation.

The Kremlin did not elaborate on the Russian leader's comments about the state of talks, but, as reported here at the time, he said yesterday that there had been "certain positive shifts" in the negotiations.

While it is impossible to accurately gauge exactly how meaningful these latest developments might be, the nature of the various statements will foster renewed hopes that key figures may be making progress in efforts to find a diplomatic resolution that could end the conflict.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 5:02 pm

Saltov Tram depot Kharkiv. OSINT technical

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 70881?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 5:11 pm

Ukraine Journalist’s view of the “referendum” the RU are planning for Kherson region

https://twitter.com/imatviyishyn/status ... 40648?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 6:31 pm

NEXTA: Latest images from Kharkiv

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 04097?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 6:38 pm

ELINT News - with Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol

https://twitter.com/elintnews/status/15 ... 40200?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:05 pm

Caddick-Adams musing on Western Values and Putin’s world view.

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 84098?s=21

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:09 pm

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:09 pm

A bit of light relief, a ‘why didn’t I think of that moment?’.

https://twitter.com/shippers999/status/ ... 08644?s=21

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:21 pm

question for those on here that have far more knowledge than I ever will - why haven't we seen the Ukrainian's use mines/IED's ?

claretandbluesky · Post by **claretandbluesky** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:22 pm

Haven’t land mines been banned

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:25 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:21 pm
question for those on here that have far more knowledge than I ever will - why haven't we seen the Ukrainian's use mines/IED's ?

Isn't there a very real danger that some get forgotten about and in a post war scenario they start to injure and kill people because they don't know where they are located.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:28 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:27 pm
I suspect they are loath to use land mines on their own land - and unnecessary as all the armour continues to travel across roads due to poor maintenance. However, the Black Sea ports, including Odessa is very heavily mined.

interesting

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:53 pm

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... 1464509443

Logistics 101

As my hobby is military stuff and my actual job for years was logistics this is right up my street

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:54 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:48 pm
Quite right - and I’ll admit it is something I always do. I can get a little dyslexic with names I’m afraid - I usually double check… I’ll have to try and ALWAYS double cheque… it’s not good and thanks for putting me on the straight and narrow

we all do, I used to like it when I could come and edit these posts 30 minutes later, this 5 minute edit has done nothing for my spelling credit !

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:55 pm

Mariupol.......just blowing **** up
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/150 ... umCWiROfGQ

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:07 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:04 pm
Hopefully their tanks are so poorly maintained they blow their barrels shooting nothing but masonry. From that footage it is even arguable they are setting out to show they were engaged and picking obviously abandoned buildings as proof (spent rounds).

There is a thread on Ukrainian troops in Mariupol (Ukrainian Marines)

Still high Morale, and I think they know how important holding on to the supply hubs are

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:35 pm

Honouring some of the glorious fallen in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/innasovsun/status/1 ... 88523?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:39 pm

Russia Central Bank decides against stock trading again next week. Clearly not as confident as their leader, then. REUTERS

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1502 ... 08930?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:46 pm

Armour fans - NEW YORK TIMES explain the next shipment of US Weaponry.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1502 ... 06697?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:49 pm

John Simpson’s (Newsreporter) view

https://twitter.com/johnsimpsonnews/sta ... 75434?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:58 pm

NEXTA: Serbian Airlines to reduce Russian flights, after pressure applied by ‘the West’ (make of that what you will)

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 74982?s=21

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:59 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:07 pm
There is a thread on Ukrainian troops in Mariupol (Ukrainian Marines)

Still high Morale, and I think they know how important holding on to the supply hubs are

This single city is the single most sign they can win this.
It was supposed to fall within a day according to all western analysts, it’s held out.

Plus signs the Ukrainians are taking land back to get to them .

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 9:15 pm

Phillips OBrian with a more factual map than is generally shown of Russian incursions.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 12423?s=21

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 9:37 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:39 pm
Russia Central Bank decides against stock trading again next week. Clearly not as confident as their leader, then. REUTERS

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1502 ... 08930?s=21

It would tank by 80% followed by the Rouble. They will have to open it eventually.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 9:43 pm

ecc wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 12, 2022 9:38 pm
What's the situation concerning the Ukranians' air force? They apparently had 225 planes prior to the invasion. I've not read too much about how they're faring. We've heard quite a lot about the Turkish drones.

There is a thread on it further up

80% still operational, flying 5-10 sorties a day

That, plus SAMs are effectively keeping Russian aircraft (who appear not to be capable of flying in large groups) away from the battlefields

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 9:46 pm

ecc wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 12, 2022 9:38 pm
What's the situation concerning the Ukranians' air force? They apparently had 225 planes prior to the invasion. I've not read too much about how they're faring. We've heard quite a lot about the Turkish drones.

Don't know where those numbers are from but they are wrong. Their entire active fixed wing AF was at or around 188, 20 of which where Let 29's (training aircraft). Not huge by any stretch of the imagination

edit: just checked - about 50 helicopters, so 225 is about right actually

ecc · Post by **ecc** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 9:47 pm

"NEXTA: Serbian Airlines to reduce Russian flights, after pressure applied by ‘the West’ (make of that what you will)"

My reading of that is as follows:

The Serbs and Russians are long-time allies. I don't think the Serbs could help Russia a great deal in terms of official support but I've read that there are some Serb volunteers fighting with the Russians.

However, Serbia is pretty desperate to join the EU so that would explain the "pressure" applied by the West.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 10:00 pm

ecc wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 12, 2022 9:51 pm
Footage on social media of a Russian tank firing indiscriminately at civilian target (tower blocks etc) in Mariupol.Quite sickening.

Fighting in a city in a tank, you basically can't see anything, and you will be getting fired at from everywhere

Its an absolute bonkers waste of armor

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 10:08 pm

Unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainians have broken the siege of Mariupol

See what else I can find out

ecc · Post by **ecc** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 10:28 pm

Many thanks, Lancaster and Vegas.

TBH I got the 225 figure from a quick Wiki search.

ecc · Post by **ecc** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 10:33 pm

Hi Lowbank,

I have indeed been following Russia's military policy. With all due respect, only people living Russia or caves elsewhere are not aware of what they're doing.

My comment was about tanks targeting tower blocks in Mariupol following Lancaster's comments about that city. I didn't put the link up because I thought it would be pulled.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 10:45 pm

and now this

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sat Mar 12, 2022 10:46 pm

further to which
https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/status/150 ... 4tDphbmXiA