Russia Invades

[elwaclaret]

Barbashovo, one of Eastern Europe’s largest market has been attacked and fires raging. NEXTA

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 74737?s=21

[Gunfury]

This is quite a moving speech from Arnie Schwarzenegger and well worth watching the whole video.

I love the Russian people. That is why I have to tell you the truth. Please watch and share.


https://twitter.com/attn/status/1504423551717163008

I’d be checking that coffee cup every time I took a sip now if I was Arnie

[elwaclaret]

REUTERS: Russian payment towards their national debt now received confirms JP Morgan bank.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1504 ... 93379?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Joe Biden twitter account - We will stay the course, we will defend freedom over tyranny, and we always will.

https://twitter.com/joebiden/status/150 ... 81059?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Powerful speech by President Zelenskiy comparing Ukraine to the Berlin Wall separating East and West

https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status ... 85729?s=21

[Spiral]

Garry Kasparov has little doubt ‘peace talks’ are just Russia playing games to buy time.

https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/1 ... 77092?s=21

Aye. When it comes to Putin I've got into the habit of always asking the question, "in what way does such and such an act or statement serve Putin personally, and in what way, or to what extent, is any single thing done or said by Putin and his 'diplomats' done primarily for Russian domestic consumption?"

I reckon he feels as thought he's clinging on to power by his fingernails, and talk of a peace settlement is done to pour cold water on the plans of any would-be conspirators. Daggers might stay in sheaths if the military sees an end in sight. He's operating on two-day narrative cycles. There's no long term planning. He's just trying to put out the fires he started. The Russians will not achieve their 'strategic goals', such as they are. He cannot defeat the Ukrainian military. Pure murder is all he has left, and that only makes a peace settlement more impossible by the casualty. He will never sue for peace on terms the Ukrainians would tolerate because it'd humiliate him personally, and the Ukrainians ought not to surrender a single inch of their soil. His performance over the last few days are about giving Russians hope it will all end, I think. He's telling Russians, "look, just hold out a bit more and the sanctions will be lifted. Don't kill me. And also, if you disagree with me, I'm going to murder you." Pretending to be a statesman in one breath, and a tyrant in the next. He's just giving himself time to think, nothing more.

[LeadBelly]

This is quite a moving speech from Arnie Schwarzenegger and well worth watching the whole video.

I love the Russian people. That is why I have to tell you the truth. Please watch and share.


https://twitter.com/attn/status/1504423551717163008

Yes that's very well put together and delivered.

[elwaclaret]

Aye. When it comes to Putin I've got into the habit of always asking the question, "in what way does such and such an act or statement serve Putin personally, and in what way, or to what extent, is any single thing done or said by Putin and his 'diplomats' done primarily for Russian domestic consumption?"

I reckon he feels as thought he's clinging on to power by his fingernails, and talk of a peace settlement is done to pour cold water on the plans of any would-be conspirators. Daggers might stay in sheaths if the military sees an end in sight. He's operating on two-day narrative cycles. There's no long term planning. He's just trying to put out the fires he started. The Russians will not achieve their 'strategic goals', such as they are. He cannot defeat the Ukrainian military. Pure murder is all he has left, and that only makes a peace settlement more impossible by the casualty. He will never sue for peace on terms the Ukrainians would tolerate because it'd humiliate him personally, and the Ukrainians ought not to surrender a single inch of their soil. His performance over the last few days are about giving Russians hope it will all end, I think. He's telling Russians, "look, just hold out a bit more and the sanctions will be lifted. Don't kill me. And also, if you disagree with me, I'm going to murder you." Pretending to be a statesman in one breath, and a tyrant in the next. He's just giving himself time to think, nothing more.

Agree it rings a little false when two days ago Putin’s main propagandist was telling Russian TV it was only the first step in an expansion West.

[Colburn_Claret]

You judge a dog by its bite, not its bark.
Anything Putin says is meaningless, until we see the actions.
He might think he can con the Russian people, but he has to be mad if he thinks the West or Ukraine are going to take him at his word.

[jos]

Peter Caddick-Adams - Breaking reports of a 4th Major General, further demonstrates Russian inadequacy.

https://twitter.com/rentaquill/status/1 ... 35810?s=21

Tweet has been removed!

[elwaclaret]

Tweet has been removed!

OOps. Looks like Mr Caddick-Adams shouldn’t have posted something on that tweet. I read it and there was quite a bit it could relate to, so I’m not hazarding a guess.

[JarrowClaret]

Worth mentioning as well, as the front lines settle down and there is more time to (for want of a better word) to do things that a proper army should, then the Russians have a lot of very capable equipment and munitions that will enable them to degrade Ukrainian equipment in a set piece battle format

Ukraine will have to be very careful with artillery batteries, that kind of thing, and making sure that they fire and then move to avoid counter battery fire (same is true of the Russians, but they have more equipment to lose)

Course, if the Russians can't rebuilt their morale and supply issues, then its not going to make enough of a difference

Counter battery fire is an issue for them Lancaster but fire and move is not really something Guns do quickly. With good displacement we can limit the effectiveness of it. They will need to move a fair bit though agreed.

[Lancasterclaret]

Us reporting that the Russians now control Izyum (South of Kharki'v)

Ukrainians will have to be careful of that eastern flank between there and the line north of Mariupol

Might have to do some strategic withdrawals

[elwaclaret]

Looking like China are starting to pick sides. Their state TV showed ‘the bread queue massacre’ and made it plain they were civilians murdered by Russian troops.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 63200?s=21

[bfcjg]

Looking like China are starting to pick sides. Their state TV showed ‘the bread queue massacre’ and made it plain they were civilians murdered by Russian troops.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 63200?s=21

I hope the Chinese leadership are shocked and disgusted not just reading the room and siding with the West for financial reasons. Somehow I suspect the latter.

[turbo5]

Looks like the French have been supplying military equipment post 2014 to Russia which is being used in this war
https://disclose.ngo/en/article/war-in- ... until-2020

[Lowbankclaret]

Looks like the French have been supplying military equipment post 2014 to Russia which is being used in this war
https://disclose.ngo/en/article/war-in- ... until-2020

Not a good for the French!

[elwaclaret]

REUTERS: Although JPMorgan confirmed their debt had been serviced, Russia is still looking like it will be the first nation in over 100 years to default on a National Debt payment.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1504 ... 10284?s=21

[elwaclaret]

I hope the Chinese leadership are shocked and disgusted not just reading the room and siding with the West for financial reasons. Somehow I suspect the latter.

I find it had to argue. Not got a great record of giving a shite for the little people there either.

[elwaclaret]

U.S. House formalising the decision to remove Preferential Trade Status from Russia - Russia will now pay standard World tariff on ALL food and medicines (and everything else). This will hurt. NEW YORK TIMES

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1504 ... 02914?s=21

[bfcjg]

Looks like the French have been supplying military equipment post 2014 to Russia which is being used in this war
https://disclose.ngo/en/article/war-in- ... until-2020

What equipment, white flags ?

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Looks like the French have been supplying military equipment post 2014 to Russia which is being used in this war
https://disclose.ngo/en/article/war-in- ... until-2020

Doubt the EU will do much, they've failed to ensure arms sales that were signed before a certain date were included in the export ban.

France could get in trouble over that Common position part at the end of that article, but even then I doubt they'll receive much of a punishment.

[Vegas Claret]

Missile strikes on Lviv airport
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/15 ... eNV56AFaKA

[Lancasterclaret]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60785679

Another excellent report from inside Kharki'v

[Hipper]

REUTERS: Although JPMorgan confirmed their debt had been serviced, Russia is still looking like it will be the first nation in over 100 years to default on a National Debt payment.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1504 ... 10284?s=21

It would be Russia's first default in 100 years. Other countries have defaulted - for example Argentina a few times, most recently in 2020.

[upanatem]

Latest musings from David Murrin, who calls himself a 'global forecaster'. The link shows a Beth Rigby Sky video interview (providing insight into Putin's mind from someone who knows him well) and David's commentary of the state of play to date, at the end of which are David's recommendations on what the west should be doing now.

https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/arkite-al ... ead-to-ww3

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... 6812792833

Usual great thread from Philip O'Brien

[summitclaret]

Latest musings from David Murrin, who calls himself a 'global forecaster'. The link shows a Beth Rigby Sky video interview (providing insight into Putin's mind from someone who knows him well) and David's commentary of the state of play to date, at the end of which are David's recommendations on what the west should be doing now.

https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/arkite-al ... ead-to-ww3

Bloody hell. He says not only will Nato soon be at proper war with Russia, but with China as well.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 9022230548

Well, Russia pumping the maximum amount of gas through the pipelines of Ukraine to Western Europe, to raise funds to continue fighting the war

Considering the situation, this is remarkable

[Lancasterclaret]

Bloody hell. He says not only will Nato soon be at proper war with Russia, but with China as well.

how can China be at war with NATO would be my first take from that

I'm increasingly confident that this will remain a Ukraine v Russia war btw

My concern will be how easy it will be for Ukraine to manage to fight Russia off as the weather improves and whether or not Russia and Ukraine have realistic goals for any peace talks

[GodIsADeeJay81]

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1 ... 0JYDQ&s=19

Interesting thread about energy import bans.

[upanatem]

how can China be at war with NATO would be my first take from that

I'm increasingly confident that this will remain a Ukraine v Russia war btw

My concern will be how easy it will be for Ukraine to manage to fight Russia off as the weather improves and whether or not Russia and Ukraine have realistic goals for any peace talks

I agree that the likely scenario will be for the war to remain a Russia/Ukraine affair. Putin dare not put 1 boot on NATO territory because we have established a very clear boundary; so the bully knows his limits. Additionally, it would be suicide for Russia to take on NATO now with his forces severely depleted by the brave Ukrainians. I fear that the war will go on for some time in Ukraine, sadly.

My view re China is that, notwithstanding Xi's well-documented strong desire to annex Taiwan, he will have been deterred somewhat by the West's strong and united stance, particularly regarding sanctions, against Russia's aggression. I'm sure he will have considerable doubts now as to whether to proceed.

[Lancasterclaret]

I agree that the likely scenario will be for the war to remain a Russia/Ukraine affair. Putin dare not put 1 boot on NATO territory because we have established a very clear boundary; so the bully knows his limits. Additionally, it would be suicide for Russia to take on NATO now with his forces severely depleted by the brave Ukrainians. I fear that the war will go on for some time in Ukraine, sadly.

My view re China is that, notwithstanding Xi's well-documented strong desire to annex Taiwan, he will have been deterred somewhat by the West's strong and united stance, particularly regarding sanctions, against Russia's aggression. I'm sure he will have considerable doubts now as to whether to proceed.

Its not really the remit of this thread, but I had a quick look at Taiwan v China

On the plus side for Taiwan, they are ridiculously well armed and very tech heavy, and are an island which means a very dangerous amphibious assault

On the negative side for Taiwan, very hard for any aid to reach them as they are an island, and China is, well, bloody massive

But I do agree that China will have been really thinking about how to act over the past three weeks, and they will have looked with horror at the West deciding to cut what bits of their economy rely on Russian imports.

The calculation will be (I think) that they will start to wonder if its worth relying so much on other countries for stuff, and how that affects China

There is no way that calculation lead China to backing Russia (they will certainly buy their oil though, but as I've already said on the thread, that just turns Russia into being economically dependent on China)

[Lowbankclaret]

I agree that the likely scenario will be for the war to remain a Russia/Ukraine affair. Putin dare not put 1 boot on NATO territory because we have established a very clear boundary; so the bully knows his limits. Additionally, it would be suicide for Russia to take on NATO now with his forces severely depleted by the brave Ukrainians. I fear that the war will go on for some time in Ukraine, sadly.

My view re China is that, notwithstanding Xi's well-documented strong desire to annex Taiwan, he will have been deterred somewhat by the West's strong and united stance, particularly regarding sanctions, against Russia's aggression. I'm sure he will have considerable doubts now as to whether to proceed.

I will stay away from the China Taiwan debate, but just say go and read Mr Zeihans thoughts on it.

I disagree with your thoughts that Putin will not put 1 boot on NATO land. I think he would and he might do it to draw NATO into the fight so he can escalate the types of weapons he can employ. I just hope if he goes down that route, one of his own does something about him.

[Lowbankclaret]

The site linked often on here is now detailing over 1500 pieces of equipment destroyed or captured. Whilst we don’t know how many pieces they started with. That’s got to be over 10% of the kit they sent over the border.
I wonder what amount of loss of kit starts to really impact an armies ability to move forward and when does it start to have to retreat?

[upanatem]

I will stay away from the China Taiwan debate, but just say go and read Mr Zeihans thoughts on it.

I disagree with your thoughts that Putin will not put 1 boot on NATO land. I think he would and he might do it to draw NATO into the fight so he can escalate the types of weapons he can employ. I just hope if he goes down that route, one of his own does something about him.

I take your point, and assessing Putin's devious nature, it would not be beyond him to engineer something that escalates the situation. His war is going badly, and a desperate man cornered could be capable of all sorts of horrors, including opening the cupboard to his 'nasty' weapons. But on balance, at this stage, I believe he knows he is seriously compromised, and dealing with yet another adversary with, in particular, superior air power, would cause him to refrain for the time being. Maybe this is also wishful thinking on my part. We'll see.

[Lancasterclaret]

I will stay away from the China Taiwan debate, but just say go and read Mr Zeihans thoughts on it.

I disagree with your thoughts that Putin will not put 1 boot on NATO land. I think he would and he might do it to draw NATO into the fight so he can escalate the types of weapons he can employ. I just hope if he goes down that route, one of his own does something about him.

He hasn't got any boots spare for starters

Russia does not win a conflict with NATO. Period. Full stop.

They can only guarantee that everyone dies

I don't think that is going to enthuse everyone in Russia to put it mildly

You have to bear in mind that the people who are talking about taking on the whole world with the mighty Red Army on Russian TV are doing it 100% for domestic consumption, to back up the claims that Russia is winning in Ukraine. They know the West know what they have left in reserve during the fighting in Ukraine, and its not a lot.

Putin is relying on something he no longer has to give him the clout he still thinks he has

[Vegas Claret]

Latest musings from David Murrin, who calls himself a 'global forecaster'. The link shows a Beth Rigby Sky video interview (providing insight into Putin's mind from someone who knows him well) and David's commentary of the state of play to date, at the end of which are David's recommendations on what the west should be doing now.

https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/arkite-al ... ead-to-ww3

exactly what I've been saying about the West for the last 10 days, weak response to an inevitable situation. I'm not having his impending war with China though

[Lowbankclaret]

He hasn't got any boots spare for starters

Russia does not win a conflict with NATO. Period. Full stop.

They can only guarantee that everyone dies

I don't think that is going to enthuse everyone in Russia to put it mildly

You have to bear in mind that the people who are talking about taking on the whole world with the mighty Red Army on Russian TV are doing it 100% for domestic consumption, to back up the claims that Russia is winning in Ukraine. They know the West know what they have left in reserve during the fighting in Ukraine, and its not a lot.

Putin is relying on something he no longer has to give him the clout he still thinks he has

So how much of the truth do we think is getting to Putin? Honest question.

Would any of us walk in and tell him it’s all going really badly, when you surround yourself with yes men. That’s what you get men and people who tell you what you want to hear.

That’s my worry hear, we believe the words we are being told, if he believes what’s being told to him ie what’s on Russian TV etc. does that not embolden him to carry on pushing forward. Or is there a point he realises it going badly and ramps it up, because we don’t see him retreating having lost to Ukraine.

[Lancasterclaret]

So how much of the truth do we think is getting to Putin? Honest question.

Would any of us walk in and tell him it’s all going really badly, when you surround yourself with yes men. That’s what you get men and people who tell you what you want to hear.

That’s my worry hear, we believe the words we are being told, if he believes what’s being told to him ie what’s on Russian TV etc. does that not embolden him to carry on pushing forward. Or is there a point he realises it going badly and ramps it up, because we don’t see him retreating having lost to Ukraine.

Enough for him to pull troops out of areas that he can't really afford to

Enough for him to authorise hiring 50,000 Arab mercenaries

Enough for him to offer peace terms to Ukraine (certainly not what he had in mind at the start)

I think the Russian Army is going to be very hard to shift from its positions in Ukraine, they might have to pull back in some areas, but unless they have a complete logistics collapse (possible based on current performance) it will be very tough for the Ukrainians to kick them out fully, and that gives him a strong hand

Course, he has to come out of this with a "win", while Ukraine has to come out of this with a "win" but that Russia can spin as a defeat

I don't think Putin is mad btw, and that is key here

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Diesel now £.1.82 near me, jumped 11p at my local Sainsbury's compared to earlier this week, despite an apparent drop in oil prices.

Now I've done my CBT, time to switch to a moped.

[elwaclaret]

Arnold Swartzanigar appeal to Russia trends on social media in Russia

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/150 ... 60257?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Britain revoking Russian TY Chanel RT’s licence is described as ‘madness’ by the Kremlin. REUTERS

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1504 ... 91633?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Caddick-Adams writing in HISTORY EXTRA, at the start of the conflict some Ukrainian defenders took war relics from World War 2 - including firearms, that they in truth never expected they’d have to use.

https://twitter.com/historyextra/status ... 03882?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

Britain revoking Russian TY Chanel RT’s licence is described as ‘madness’ by the Kremlin. REUTERS

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1504 ... 91633?s=21

they also just said that Fox News was the only station in the USA that offers "an alternative view from the propaganda". I nearly spat my coffee out

[elwaclaret]

Pro-War rally held in World Cup final stadium as Russia ‘celebrate’ the annexation of Crimea.

https://twitter.com/zagrebista/status/1 ... 23553?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

Pro-War rally held in World Cup final stadium as Russia ‘celebrate’ the annexation of Crimea.

https://twitter.com/zagrebista/status/1 ... 23553?s=21

and Putin was there giving a speech

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/CGTNEurope/status/1 ... 3596096521

China after talking to Biden

Worth mentioning as well that Lavrov was on his way to China yesterday and turned around mid flight

Not sure China won't be sympathetic to Russia up to a point, but actual assistance is almost certainly not on the agenda

[Vegas Claret]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 9022230548

Well, Russia pumping the maximum amount of gas through the pipelines of Ukraine to Western Europe, to raise funds to continue fighting the war

Considering the situation, this is remarkable

that's insane

[Hipper]

Latest musings from David Murrin, who calls himself a 'global forecaster'. The link shows a Beth Rigby Sky video interview (providing insight into Putin's mind from someone who knows him well) and David's commentary of the state of play to date, at the end of which are David's recommendations on what the west should be doing now.

https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/arkite-al ... ead-to-ww3

Bloody hell. He says not only will Nato soon be at proper war with Russia, but with China as well.

I read that and took from it that Murrin is not predicting the war but wants it.