Russia Invades

[JarrowClaret]

Possibly only an RPG, and though they aimed it at the bit with the weakest armor, it still didn't go through

Probably a good job for the lads who fired it, as it would have detonated the ammo for sure and they'd have been blown sky high as well

Nah NLAW and it needs to travel about 20 metres before it arms for the safe you of the firers.

[Lancasterclaret]

Nah NLAW and it needs to travel about 20 metres before it arms for the safe you of the firers.

Cheers!

I wonder if the Ukrainian were shouting something along the lines of "f**king hell, its too close"

[JarrowClaret]

Cheers!

I wonder if the Ukrainian were shouting something along the lines of "f**king hell, its too close"

Or maybe cancel the tractor

[elwaclaret]

There are flights patrolling the border every day by various countries. Ihave been watching them , I didn’t mean to be derogatory to anyone. I am just geek who watche crap like that.

Far from it, I think your contributions have been very valuable to the thread.

[Lancasterclaret]

Or maybe cancel the tractor

"Pyotr, the tractors are busy till next week with tanks and BUK missile systems, but they can fit one in next Wednesday"

[Lancasterclaret]

On the super positive side, Dmitri Medvedev (ex Russian President) has clarified the Russian criteria for using nuclear weapons, and it does look like nothing that can happen in Ukraine under the current situation will cause it

[elwaclaret]

There’s a couple of young lads in that group but in the main they look middle-aged men?

Just using Osints terminology, I noticed there were different ages involved.

[Lowbankclaret]

Far from it, I think your contributions have been very valuable to the thread.

Well maybe apart from being a complete dickhead that got it locked. 100% my bad that, embarrassed myself. I think a was lucky CT only banned me for a week and I owe him a major apology.

[NewClaret]

Just using Osints terminology, I noticed there were different ages involved.

Yep, realised you were just reporting the news. Just seemed one of those somewhat misleading headline on this one.

[NewClaret]

Or maybe cancel the tractor

[NewClaret]

Nah NLAW and it needs to travel about 20 metres before it arms for the safe you of the firers.

That’s annoying, if only they’d let it drive past a bit further!

[Vegas Claret]

Brave !
https://twitter.com/KremlinTrolls/statu ... Z2vn8x4cjA

[NewClaret]

Brave !
https://twitter.com/KremlinTrolls/statu ... Z2vn8x4cjA

Wouldn’t eat or drink anything he hasn’t made himself for a while, if I were him!

[Lowbankclaret]

Lots of military stuff flying just outside of Ukraine. Most interesting one went dark seconds after I did the screen grab.
Stratofortress

6AB69AAB-F39D-4339-B27B-1BE45BEE9988.jpeg (351.27 KiB) Viewed 3180 times

Stratotanker circling

C6F244CB-EC66-4427-AEB0-0C46315A77AF.jpeg (355.55 KiB) Viewed 3180 times

[Lowbankclaret]

Two Czechia Saab Gripens

EDA0E19C-FDD3-473C-8C89-BF4063977957.jpeg (344.53 KiB) Viewed 3173 times

And a black hawk to the south.

AD18F507-7CCB-49E2-BC3C-40A8A74BD778.jpeg (337.67 KiB) Viewed 3173 times

[Lowbankclaret]

Another Stratofortress has just taken off from the UK. Filtered by type and according to the site it’s the only one in the sky, the other earlier still dark.

7DEA3B56-830B-4872-BA92-121D5CB0E93C.jpeg (286.32 KiB) Viewed 3141 times

[Lancasterclaret]

Never knew the Czechs had Grippens

Going to be a lot of stuff on the border from NATO

I would imagine (just guessing here) that any cruise missile that heads toward L'viv is tracked by everything and if it flies past (almost certainly due to mechanical error) it will get targeted by everything as soon as it crosses the border and blown out of the sky

[Hipper]

https://www.navylookout.com/assessing-r ... n-ukraine/

Analysis from the Naval experts on what destroyed that Ukrainian ship in Berdyansk

So most likely munitions mishandling that destroyed that Russian ship. Pity.

I supposed the best way to judge is if the Russians are still using the port of Berdyansk freely or are restricting its use.

https://news.usni.org/2022/03/25/satell ... -berdyansk

[Lancasterclaret]

So most likely munitions mishandling that destroyed that Russian ship. Pity.

I supposed the best way to judge is if the Russians are still using the port of Berdyansk freely or are restricting its use.

https://news.usni.org/2022/03/25/satell ... -berdyansk

I think they have to use it, anything that cuts the distance from the front line to the supply bases is absolutely essential to them, and their truck shortage is only going to get worse

But there is clearly issues with Russian ammo handling and storage, and Berdyansk is still in the range of both drones and those short range ballistic missiles

Thats why I'm hugely sceptical of any Russian/Ukrainian ceasefire proposals at the moment, they want time to reorganise and resupply, and if the fighting continues at its current tempo, they will really struggle to do that. Ukraine know this, and want to push as hard as possible where they can.

[cbx750]

Lots of military stuff flying just outside of Ukraine. Most interesting one went dark seconds after I did the screen grab.

First B52 now on station over South East Romania.

B52.jpg (175.77 KiB) Viewed 3010 times

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Another Stratofortress has just taken off from the UK. Filtered by type and according to the site it’s the only one in the sky, the other earlier still dark.

7DEA3B56-830B-4872-BA92-121D5CB0E93C.jpeg

Stratofortress is a hefty bit of kit, why is one of those in the air?
Not so subtle reminder to Russia to stay within Ukraine?

[Lowbankclaret]

First B52 now on station over South East Romania.

B52.jpg

Second one that took off from the UK looks to be joining the first with also a NATO radar plane close by.

2E13A1CA-8D5E-46BB-839A-FABB1DFD9C11.jpeg (343.17 KiB) Viewed 2899 times

0D6102A4-D84E-4938-A89B-14000D823F83.jpeg (323.3 KiB) Viewed 2899 times

[Lowbankclaret]

Stratofortress is a hefty bit of kit, why is one of those in the air?
Not so subtle reminder to Russia to stay within Ukraine?

I have been looking on this site for about two weeks. First time Ihave seen one of those in the air, then there are two.

[Lowbankclaret]

First B52 now on station over South East Romania.

B52.jpg

I cannot find all military stuff on Flightradar24, how did you find that??

[cbx750]

I cannot find all military stuff on Flightradar24, how did you find that??

Put your cursor over the plane and it will show the call sign, RAF are usually RR followed by a number or sometimes the tankers are Kayak. USAF have names like Large25 for tankers or Duke for helicopters.

[Lowbankclaret]

Put your cursor over the plane and it will show the call sign, RAF are usually RR followed by a number or sometimes the tankers are Kayak. USAF have names like Large25 for tankers or Duke for helicopters.

I am using an iPad so it’s slightly different.

The helicopters I have found before, as you say they are normally Duke and a number.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/stat ... Hauyg&s=19

Reporting from a city recaptured from the Russians.

[bfcjg]

I think this is very big news coming from the leader of the people Russia were meant to be liberating.

Screenshot_20220329-125258_Samsung Internet.jpg (278.86 KiB) Viewed 2721 times

[Lancasterclaret]

Russia in full "bullshit" mode

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/15 ... 4940520448

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 3731590152

I want them to be genuine. More than anything else, I want them to be genuine

But Russia have said one thing, and done something else every single time so far

So treat with extreme caution

[Sottpark1 !]

Sadly bfcjg Alexandrov has had no role since 2015 he helped create the Donetsk Peoples Republic but has had no roles or elected office since 2015 living as a private citizen in Russia.Agree very interesting though

[Lancasterclaret]

Russia in full "bullshit" mode

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/15 ... 4940520448

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 3731590152

I want them to be genuine. More than anything else, I want them to be genuine

But Russia have said one thing, and done something else every single time so far

So treat with extreme caution

This also tells the Ukrainians were to attack, though of course Russia will then claim Ukraine is breaking trust

Course, Russia could cut back operations in Mariupol if it really wanted to send a positive message to Ukraine

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1 ... 8207678472

Jaw dropping

If this isn't a sham (and it has to be surely?) then just how screwed is Russia?

Can't be anything other than a sham

No way Russia would have crippled its economy, shown the whole world what a paper tiger it is, to basically allow Ukraine to join the EU

I mean, its not as good as them joining NATO, but its a huge security blanket for Ukraine, and essentially torpedoes any hope of the Russian influence in Ukraine

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1 ... 9631686663

If Russia is pulling forces away from Kyi'v, and they time it wrong, then that front could collapse

Whatever they are calling it, this is a retreat, and a retreat can turn into a rout really quickly, especially with badly trained, low morale and low supplied troops

[elwaclaret]

Link for last nights history podcast: Peter Craddock-Adams is joined by Al Murray and James Holland - discussing all things Ukraine

https://twitter.com/strangelyhappy/stat ... 2v1tIdUrQw

[Lowbankclaret]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1 ... 8207678472

Jaw dropping

If this isn't a sham (and it has to be surely?) then just how screwed is Russia?

Can't be anything other than a sham

No way Russia would have crippled its economy, shown the whole world what a paper tiger it is, to basically allow Ukraine to join the EU

I mean, its not as good as them joining NATO, but its a huge security blanket for Ukraine, and essentially torpedoes any hope of the Russian influence in Ukraine

We have been discussing this at length for a few weeks now, with lots of links etc.
My take on this is Russia does not have the troops or kit left due to its army being degraded by over 20% now.

They need, as I said before, to drop back and regroup or reinforce troops elsewhere or Ukraine are going to push them back.

I therefore see this as , they will pull back troops in the North to use them in the east, just keeping Donbas now is going to be a victory for Russia.

Another month of this and Russia would be down over ( based on estimates) 1000 tanks ( circa 5 million each) and could be 50,000 troops injured or dead. That would over 30% of the troop he used to invade.

[elwaclaret]

BBC Britain seizes first super yacht ‘Phi’ registered to an as yet unnamed Russian oligarch.

https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1508 ... BKcgsO8KJA

[elwaclaret]

REUTERS: The Ruble rallies to a month high against the $ and the stock market also shows some recovery as trading restarts in Russia

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1508 ... hgNjqgohFg

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA: Duma make ‘serious’ claim that their special operations are nearly complete

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... gYiqCGJVLQ

[elwaclaret]

Kyiv Independent - Russia again claims to be scaling down in Kyiv as Ukrainians force them back

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... sXWys_QlTg

[Lancasterclaret]

We have been discussing this at length for a few weeks now, with lots of links etc.
My take on this is Russia does not have the troops or kit left due to its army being degraded by over 20% now.

They need, as I said before, to drop back and regroup or reinforce troops elsewhere or Ukraine are going to push them back.

I therefore see this as , they will pull back troops in the North to use them in the east, just keeping Donbas now is going to be a victory for Russia.

Another month of this and Russia would be down over ( based on estimates) 1000 tanks ( circa 5 million each) and could be 50,000 troops injured or dead. That would over 30% of the troop he used to invade.

All the other evidence appearing does suggest that Russia might be serious

But again, this is a huge strategic defeat for them.

Seismic in fact

Biggest geo political defeat in my lifetime

[elwaclaret]

Peter Caddick-Adams retweet - Russian armour continues to drive streets unsupported, wit the same old results in Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/jimmysecuk/status/1 ... 20OOizlNMw

[elwaclaret]

Another Caddick-Adms retweet from the front - the Russians are looking to switch their forces East under pretence of a concessionary ceasefire around Kyiv.

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/statu ... S-eu-ELD-g

[Lancasterclaret]

Peter Caddick-Adams retweet - Russian armour continues to drive streets unsupported, wit the same old results in Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/jimmysecuk/status/1 ... 20OOizlNMw

Been discussed a lot last night that one!

Still mad, still can't get my head around watching a tank with p**r poor visibility issues for its crew to start with still doing that when they are 300 plus tanks down

I do wonder if they have an almost complete lack of training?

[Lowbankclaret]

All the other evidence appearing does suggest that Russia might be serious

But again, this is a huge strategic defeat for them.

Seismic in fact

Biggest geo political defeat in my lifetime

100% agree with that.

I just think having listened to many analysts on different channels. Russian army cannot win this. All the anti tank weapons are causing so much damage to his army, it could end up so weak Ukraine could take back Crimea. I think he needs a negotiated settlement.

I posted a link the other day which proposed the strategy for the NATO leaders was just to give Ukraine so much munitions Russia could not win. I know it’s guess but I think Russia are realising they are going to be so degraded in 4-6 weeks that Ukraine is unlikely to agree to a settlement as it will becoming apparent they are winning.

[Hipper]

Peter Caddick-Adams retweet - Russian armour continues to drive streets unsupported, wit the same old results in Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/jimmysecuk/status/1 ... 20OOizlNMw

Although that attack was linked earlier and appeared to be ineffective, it shows why the Russians want to destroy buildings.

[elwaclaret]

Been discussed a lot last night that one!

Still mad, still can't get my head around watching a tank with p**r poor visibility issues for its crew to start with still doing that when they are 300 plus tanks down

I do wonder if they have an almost complete lack of training?

Sorry, had a margarine last night which made reading virtually impossible - I spent the night instead listening to Alice Roberts talking about the dark ages, my first love.

[Lancasterclaret]

Although that attack was linked earlier and appeared to be ineffective, it shows why the Russians want to destroy buildings.

I'm trying to think just how much high explosive they would have to use to destroy all the buildings in one pretty small city in Ukraine, and I don't think they'd have enough

And then tanks would just get destroyed by NLAW shots from the rubble

I just remember reading about Stalingrad - the Germans pounded into the ground, threw in everything over a four month period, pretty much gutted an entire Army and left them completely powerless against a counter attack

Mariupol is their Stalingrad, and it must be eating up their troops and equipment

[Hipper]

We have been discussing this at length for a few weeks now, with lots of links etc.
My take on this is Russia does not have the troops or kit left due to its army being degraded by over 20% now.

They need, as I said before, to drop back and regroup or reinforce troops elsewhere or Ukraine are going to push them back.

I therefore see this as , they will pull back troops in the North to use them in the east, just keeping Donbas now is going to be a victory for Russia.

Another month of this and Russia would be down over ( based on estimates) 1000 tanks ( circa 5 million each) and could be 50,000 troops injured or dead. That would over 30% of the troop he used to invade.

In the latest ISW report:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... t-march-28

they assume that the Russians haven't abandoned their efforts on Kviv but are 'reconstituting' their forces, moving some units out and replacing with others.

Whatever the truth, I assume any activities like this - basically movement - leaves them exposed to attack by Ukrainian forces, if the Ukraines have them.

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA: Johnson and Johnson (finally) pullout of Russia

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... oVV5y1ct2w

[bpgburn]

Sorry, had a margarine last night which made reading virtually impossible - I spent the night instead listening to Alice Roberts talking about the dark ages, my first love.

Butter is much better for you nowadays