Russia Invades

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:07 pm

Phillips OBrien - Russian troops do seem to be moving out of Kyiv region.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... XU8D20oiYA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:40 pm

NEXTA: Pentagon recognise Russian movements are not ceasefire but redeployments.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... hmr80PEjxg

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:12 pm

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:44 pm

ROB LEE - footage of Russian Zala UAV footage of missile targeting on Ukrainian forces.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1508 ... 4oYTJXcp4A

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:46 pm

NEW YORK TIMES - Saying what we already know, but with a handy map of troops stationed around Ukraines borders.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1508 ... QkT0zwdrDQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:59 pm

TASS suggesting the Explosion of ammunition inside Russia was due to Ukrainian missiles (rather that than admit to lax training, the sceptical might say) and less ridiculous than earlier claims to be celebratory fireworks.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1508 ... 7PdSLOj0hg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:39 pm

REUTERS: Western leaders united stand on remaining firm over Ukraine

https://twitter.com/reutersuk/status/15 ... mfMTZAM4Iw

NewClaret · Post by **NewClaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:54 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:39 pm
REUTERS: Western leaders united stand on remaining firm over Ukraine

https://twitter.com/reutersuk/status/15 ... mfMTZAM4Iw

So they should. I’ve just watched the ITV news and the destruction and pain they’ve caused is unforgivable. I really hope the Ukrainians can get some success in the North and East.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 11:58 pm

NewClaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:54 pm
So they should. I’ve just watched the ITV news and the destruction and pain they’ve caused is unforgivable. I really hope the Ukrainians can get some success in the North and East.

The fact that Russian forces seemed to be confirmed as moving out, the problem is it could yet be a feint to pull the Northern defenders down towards the south before hitting it again. It seems logical the wars next phase will be staged around the ports; while the Russian support their Eastern gains… but Russia and logic are rarely harmonious bedfellows, they could easily have them all headed north by the end of any ceasefire.

It is why partial ceasefires are nonsensical and absolutely a non-starter for any serious commentators and academics alike (bar a few bored journalists). There is no prospect of Russia pulling out now, simply because for them to claim the victory, they need Ukraine to give up areas they are still actively contesting (and doing rather well in). Zelenskiy reads the room very well, they have to make all the agreed noises, but I expert little but Russian surrender, little short of unconditional, is the feeling around Ukraine. Nobody will say it without it ‘slipping out’ but no one has the stomach to watch Putin walk away from this.

dermotdermot · Post by **dermotdermot** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:01 am

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:29 pm
OTHER NEWS (BBC) - Max Moseley, F1 main player and youngest son of Fascist Black shirt leader Oswald Moseley committed suicide by shooting himself after he was given a ‘terminal cancer’ diagnosis.

https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1508 ... GNziGVk3ig

But that was nearly a year ago.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:02 am

dermotdermot wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:01 am
But that was nearly a year ago.

Inquest came back today

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:07 am

ROB LEE: Elite Russian Motorised Rifle brigade serviceman killed in Ukraine today

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1508 ... c059u9leNg

And another from same unit.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1508 ... PDle2zVtfw

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:12 am

REUTERS: Macron tells Putin in conversation paying in Rubles is impossible.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1508 ... kBZnW9D11w

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:15 am

ROB LEE - looks at todays Russian Naval casualties

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1508 ... nH37XHHcew

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1508 ... K6sYi-ydcg

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:31 am

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 11:58 pm
The fact that Russian forces seemed to be confirmed as moving out, the problem is it could yet be a feint to pull the Northern defenders down towards the south before hitting it again. It seems logical the wars next phase will be staged around the ports; while the Russian support their Eastern gains… but Russia and logic are rarely harmonious bedfellows, they could easily have them all headed north by the end of any ceasefire.

It is why partial ceasefires are nonsensical and absolutely a non-starter for any serious commentators and academics alike (bar a few bored journalists). There is no prospect of Russia pulling out now, simply because for them to claim the victory, they need Ukraine to give up areas they are still actively contesting (and doing rather well in). Zelenskiy reads the room very well, they have to make all the agreed noises, but I expert little but Russian surrender, little short of unconditional, is the feeling around Ukraine. Nobody will say it without it ‘slipping out’ but no one has the stomach to watch Putin walk away from this.

In these days of satellites and other intelligence it seems to me it would be pretty hard to hide anything but small units. I would therefore think that if the Russians withdrew south and south east from the Kviv-Chernihiv-Sumy areas into Belarus/Russian territory they could still be easily monitored (as they were in the preparation before the invasion). As a result, if the Ukrainians are capable, they could keep an appropriate force available in these areas to deter any future Russian incursions. Any Ukrainian forces not needed could be rested (they'll be knackered too) and moved to Luhansk-Donetsk regions.

The big worry for the Ukrainians is that, like the Russians, they may be running out of weapons. Although they have a bigger set of suppliers, there are reports that NATO are running low on some stocks too.

That's another way a war can end - both sides are exhausted and can no longer fight.

Hopefully we are seeing the end game of this war, for the time being at least, and that when an agreement is reached, or it is arrived at by default, the rest of the world - most of it anyway - will keep up sanctions on Russia and its ruling mafia until it withdraws completely from Ukraine's contested regions and Crimea too. Russia then becomes a pariah state and untenable to run in its current form and they will look to a Yeltsin type figure (without the alcohol) to lead them into the sunshine of the western way of doing things! (I can dream a bit)

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 9:43 am

Reports coming in that the Russians have lost another Colonel

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:20 am

It’s difficult to what’s real, what’s not, but it seems real. Worth watching the video.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... tline.html

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:26 am

Phillips OBrien - Is Russia running out of troops? Forwarded article

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... HbfuCtmJmg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:28 am

OSINTtechnical - Captured 2K22 Russian Tunguska

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... gwxNjVkZ5w

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:32 am

It sounds as though Russia in boxing terms are on the ropes, Ukraine could do themselves and the West a favour by carrying on, but carefully, people in other regions under Russian occupation could also see this as an opportunity.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:42 am

Peter Caddick-Adams - The EU defence, has been in the past, been largely created by collecting different wide ranging systems, rather than a coherent force.

https://twitter.com/dbdesroches/status/ ... yLa5uU--2A

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:50 am

After all our hope of Russia withdrawing troops from northern areas. I just watched a CNN report with an interview of the mayor of chernihiv, hope that’s correct spelling. He said the shelling has intensified over the last 12 to 24 hours.

Now this might just be to shield retreating troops which will be very vulnerable to attack.

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:54 am

https://twitter.com/innasovsun/status/1 ... 8WPqNVbdyg

Comments on heavy shelling.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:22 pm

https://www.ft.com/content/0706d6f4-666 ... pe=blocked

Germany taking first steps towards gas rationing

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:26 pm

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... ium=social
Not sure if this has been posted, just some American commentators view regarding regime change.

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:29 pm

Link to Ukraines estimated Russian losses.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... 8WPqNVbdyg

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:40 pm

Russia still heading into the room marked "Bigger version of North Korea" at a rate of knots

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/statu ... 5236776968

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:58 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:40 pm
Russia still heading into the room marked "Bigger version of North Korea" at a rate of knots

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/statu ... 5236776968

Almost like they are determined on a year zero/great leap forward type re-creation. Incredible, like the post says a quick leap to pirate state.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 3:07 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:58 pm
Almost like they are determined on a year zero/great leap forward type re-creation. Incredible, like the post says a quick leap to pirate state.

Its going into law, which means that any foriegn company trading in Russia can have its stuff stolen and copied

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 3:53 pm

Two UK euro fighters over Romania.

: D523B84B-2033-47EB-9F8F-03EC2AB736E2.jpeg (301.61 KiB) Viewed 3235 times

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 4:37 pm

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status ... 0148881409

Russians improving their communication security (still not great btw)

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 5:03 pm

Russian jets that violated Swedish airspace 'were equipped with NUKES' https://mol.im/a/10668961 via https://dailym.ai/android

Erm....

jos · Post by **jos** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 5:57 pm

Analysis of Russian Ground Force Deployment Capabilities and Limitations

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/p ... RR2563.pdf

Published in 2020

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:14 pm

ROB LEE - Three T72B3 tanks; one destroyed two captured, thought to be around Mariupol

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1509 ... 5-aOTdX9Jg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:19 pm

NEXTA - Germany searches German Gazprom premises. No further detail released yet.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 5-aOTdX9Jg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:22 pm

ROB LEE - Another T72B3, this one taken out by the Ukrainian 128th Mountain Assault Brigade

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1509 ... 5-aOTdX9Jg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:32 pm

ROB LEE - Captured Russian BTR-82A

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1509 ... J10b0kGr9A

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:45 pm

ROB LEE - TOS-1A Thermobaric MRLS TZM-T transloader captured in Kharkiv Oblast

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1509 ... J10b0kGr9A

NewClaret · Post by **NewClaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:05 pm

Do they destroy all this Russian equipment or reuse it against them?

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:13 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 30, 2022 6:45 pm
ROB LEE - TOS-1A Thermobaric MRLS TZM-T transloader captured in Kharkiv Oblast

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1509 ... J10b0kGr9A

As somebody further down said, turning roundcand aim it at Russians ( soldiers not civilians) and see how they like it.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:20 pm

bfcjg wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:13 pm
As somebody further down said, turning roundcand aim it at Russians ( soldiers not civilians) and see how they like it.

Depends on how badly damaged it is, if they have the time to tow it away, and if they have the ammo or available crew for stuff

I would think they would save as much as they can, because they can repair quite a lot, and realistically they are not going to be getting many replacements for tanks and armoured vehicles

But they certainly will blow it up to make sure the Russians can't re use them if they can't tow them back to safe areas in Ukraine

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:31 pm

Rumours of tension between Putin, the military and his economic advisors.
https://mobile.twitter.com/KenDilanianN ... s-12541713

KRBFC · Post by **KRBFC** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:34 pm

with the Russians regrouping and moving South, will be a great time for Ukraine to attack with likely large gatherings of troops and equipment.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:11 pm

KRBFC wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:34 pm
with the Russians regrouping and moving South, will be a great time for Ukraine to attack with likely large gatherings of troops and equipment.

my concern is Putin pulling his troops well out of the way of Kyiv so he can launch devastating attacks from long range ? Nothing is simple with Putin that's for sure

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:20 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:11 pm
my concern is Putin pulling his troops well out of the way of Kyiv so he can launch devastating attacks from long range ? Nothing is simple with Putin that's for sure

He's just going to use artillery from long range to damage as much as Ukraine as possible

Not sure how much longer the Russians are going to be in artillery range of Kyi'v though

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 9:13 pm

if these are "live" then this is beyond mental https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/150 ... KgPsP7CSIg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 9:26 pm

Rob LEE - with more captured Russian kit

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1509 ... 0NJ1ppMTGQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 9:34 pm

Kyiv Independent - Russian missiles hit clearly marked Red Cross hospital in Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... 0NJ1ppMTGQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 9:35 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 30, 2022 9:13 pm
if these are "live" then this is beyond mental https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/150 ... KgPsP7CSIg

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Wed Mar 30, 2022 10:11 pm

GCHQ's take on events.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... l-12578490