Russia Invades

[Lowbankclaret]

https://youtu.be/09x-9c_6GAg

Well worth a watch, gives you all the detail of the current area being fought over.
If the reports and maps are correct. Izyum is now cut off from supplies and any ability to retreat.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/sta ... 0487960576

Moveable map showing the advance, and clearly showing the Oskil River that the Russians are now in serious danger of being trapped against

[LeadBelly]

There are a load of maps around, but the two key points are that the only railway line to Izyum that isn't cut by Ukrainian positions is through Kupyansk, and the River from Kupyansk down to Izyum has only five crossing points, and all are in artillery range of the Ukrainian army

The key is just how much armor, artillery and highly trained troops Russia has at the edges of the breakthrough

If they have enough, then they could close the pocket at the breakthrough point

It does look like they don't have anywhere near enough, but the Ukrainians will want to widen the penetration as much as possible

The Russians have posted pictures of a reinforcement column supposedly making it's way towards the area - but no clue as to where it is. Could be in Vladivostok for all we know, could even be old pictures from earlier in the war. https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1568187754894315521
You'd think they had reserves somewhere behind the front lines but maybe mostly moved to the southern battle zone.

Also- is it likely the Ukrainians will try & destroy bridges over the river Oskil? That would make reinforcement/supplies more difficult. I presume they could use artillery on the bridge at Kupyansk without having to battle for the town + they seem to be close to (if not in) Senkove which is the next bridge southwards.

[Lancasterclaret]

The Russians have posted pictures of a reinforcement column supposedly making it's way towards the area - but no clue as to where it is. Could be in Vladivostok for all we know, could even be old pictures from earlier in the war. https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1568187754894315521
You'd think they had reserves somewhere behind the front lines but maybe mostly moved to the southern battle zone.

Also- is it likely the Ukrainians will try & destroy bridges over the river Oskil? That would make reinforcement/supplies more difficult. I presume they could use artillery on the bridge at Kupyansk without having to battle for the town + they seem to be close to (if not in) Senkove which is the next bridge southwards.

That video is interesting - you'd expect what is a propaganda video to show tanks, SAM missile systems, Grad launchers etc etc - it looks like some engineering units (to build bridges over the Oskil?), some 155mm artillery (presumably to mass artillery like they managed to do in Sieverdonestk) and lorried infantry (which would be next to useless if the Ukrainian continue to break through with well co ordinated tank and mechanized infantry

Be interesting to see what happens next

Essentially you have trapped Russian forces on the wrong side of the Dnipro around Kherson, including reinforcements and the best available troops and an unspecified number of Russian units essentially with nowhere to go, no viable supply line (everything has to come and go over road bridges over the Oskil)

And I'd be really surprised if the Ukrainian army are not launching localized counter attack all down the line as the Russians will have to withdraw troops from those areas to reinforce this one

[Colburn_Claret]

I had read the officer in charge of Izyum fled 2 days ago. So he was not too confident.

Then I came across this, if this is true, the Troops in Izyum will very quickly get surrounded.

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/ ... xj1Fa9VRww

That would be brilliant if it turns out to be true.

[Lowbankclaret]

That video is interesting - you'd expect what is a propaganda video to show tanks, SAM missile systems, Grad launchers etc etc - it looks like some engineering units (to build bridges over the Oskil?), some 155mm artillery (presumably to mass artillery like they managed to do in Sieverdonestk) and lorried infantry (which would be next to useless if the Ukrainian continue to break through with well co ordinated tank and mechanized infantry

Be interesting to see what happens next

Essentially you have trapped Russian forces on the wrong side of the Dnipro around Kherson, including reinforcements and the best available troops and an unspecified number of Russian units essentially with nowhere to go, no viable supply line (everything has to come and go over road bridges over the Oskil)

And I'd be really surprised if the Ukrainian army are not launching localized counter attack all down the line as the Russians will have to withdraw troops from those areas to reinforce this one

I am seeing several reports that Ukrainians have taken out most of the bridges, if not all. If there are 20,000 troops in Izyum, they will be starved out in the end. No need to attack them and lose valuable troops..
Interestingly I think Russia is running out of troops. It’s widely reported they started with 180,000 troops , 60,000 KIA reported so probably the whole number they started with are either 200’s or 300’s now.

I honest think the whole thing is going to fold like a pack of cards.

Probably 80% of the troops now are either kids or old men, against an army of highly motivated people, 20% of which are now women in the Ukrainian army.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/stat ... 6373059586

Russian tank driving needs some work

[Vegas Claret]

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/stat ... 6373059586

Russian tank driving needs some work

that's like me on GTA

[Lowbankclaret]

Reports of fighting inside Izyum coming out now. Very surprised if true.
However it’s being said by people on Twitter who normally know this stuff and get it right.

[welsbyswife]

It's been said before but many thanks to those who contribute to this thread. It's a bit morbid but I find the warfare fascinating. However, I'm not a twitterer so having people who know where to look for the information is invaluable, especially as mainstream media seems hopelessly behind the curve with reporting these days, at least in terms of timescales when things are unfolding so quickly. Really rooting for the Ukranians and hoping they can maintain this momentum.

[Cubanforever]

It's been said before but many thanks to those who contribute to this thread. It's a bit morbid but I find the warfare fascinating. However, I'm not a twitterer so having people who know where to look for the information is invaluable, especially as mainstream media seems hopelessly behind the curve with reporting these days, at least in terms of timescales when things are unfolding so quickly. Really rooting for the Ukranians and hoping they can maintain this momentum.

Got to agree with this, seen a few posts like this and always meant to pay the same sentiment....Thank-you chaps

[NewClaret]

Reports of fighting inside Izyum coming out now. Very surprised if true.
However it’s being said by people on Twitter who normally know this stuff and get it right.

Why’s this surprising Lowbank? I thought that was the next territory to take?

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 7757978624

Russian BMP-3 filming itself firing at Ukrainian forces until......

[Lancasterclaret]

Why’s this surprising Lowbank? I thought that was the next territory to take?

There is no way that the Russians should be so weak around this area

It took them about four months to take it, and at a very heavy cost

A quick look at a map (certainly if you are a Russian General) should highlight this area as one not to weaken your forces in

Some realism need applying though, this is now Day four or five, which should be ample time for Russian artillery to start to have a serious impact on the offensive

[Lowbankclaret]

Why’s this surprising Lowbank? I thought that was the next territory to take?

Because it’s supposed to be heavily fortified and have 20,000 troops. Around 2-4000 Ukrainians held out at Avostol for a couple of months when the Russians threw everything at them.

[NewClaret]

Russian troops not happy:

https://mobile.twitter.com/VolodyaTrety ... 3172363264

Just look at them though. That’s not an army, it’s just a bunch of reprobates. Or maybe Dad’s Army! If that’s the forces they’re up against, or an indication of true morale, I think Ukrainian prospects are very good!

[NewClaret]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 7757978624

Russian BMP-3 filming itself firing at Ukrainian forces until......

There was a post underneath saying:

Russia: blatblatblatblatblat.
Ukraine: BOOM

[elwaclaret]

Regarding Twitter, I notice that O'Brian and other Twitterers that were regularly quoted earlier in the thread are no longer being mentioned???

Normally me that has put up O’Brian stuff, I’ve not been on Titter much tbh over recent weeks, been busy tying up loose ends ready for my return to University. I’ll be sporadic from now as I am back reading.

[elwaclaret]

On the subject of Phillips O’Brien…

Ok, some people have asked for a summary of my views on war (why my analysis of the Ukraine war has been so pointed), so I thought I would make this thread with reference to my research (where possible free or library access material).

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... Lb9aarNDVw

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1568493582549680129

Kupyansk apparently under Ukrainian control according to these pics

If true, that is nothing short of remarkable

[bfcjg]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1568311440846589952
The people of Ukraine are so stoic, these humble gestures showcwhat liberation really means.

[Lowbankclaret]

Russian soldiers have fled Izyum. As Lancs said they did the same in Kupyansk.
Remarkable.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 6bL4NjaHqQ

[Lowbankclaret]

This video brought a tear to my eye. Ukrainian soldiers singing the national anthem prior to battle.
Lots of references to Lord of the rings on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/georgian_legion/sta ... 6bL4NjaHqQ

[Lancasterclaret]

Key now will be pressing this attack as far as they can without giving the Russians a chance or an opening to counter attack (historical context being Mainstein counter blow in the Ukraine in January 1943)

Safe to say though the Ukrainians appear to be pretty good at judging when not to push too far and by capturing Izyum and Kupyansk they have also made it difficult (if not impossible) for Russia to push further in Donestk oblast

And bear in mind that the Russian pulled troops out from in front of Kyi'v so they could concentrate on this region, and they have just lost a huge chunk of territory that it took them months (and a lot of men and equipment) to take

If you bear in mind that the only Russian successes since the opening days have been backed by massive numerical superiority in men, tanks and artillery in very selected locations (Sieverdonestk essentially), you do wonder if they can come even close to matching that again, certainly this year

[NewClaret]

Just reading about Izium falling/being surrendered.

Great news.

Presumably the strategy now is to break up the Russian forces in to parcels & pin them back in to concentrated areas they can hot with artillery?

[NewClaret]

If you bear in mind that the only Russian successes since the opening days have been backed by massive numerical superiority in men, tanks and artillery in very selected locations (Sieverdonestk essentially), you do wonder if they can come even close to matching that again, certainly this year

According to the Ukrainian figures, they’ve lost 7-8000 piece’s of kit. There’s rumours the Russians have abandoned their kit in Izium too. I know you don’t believe the Ukrainian numbers, but they’re substantial either way. By the looks of things they don’t have the troops, kit or supplies to hold ground - never mind go again.

I may be underestimating Putins stupidity but I can’t see Russia trying another offensive anywhere. I do hope, that Ukraine have shown no mercy and killed off as much ongoing threat as possible though; I still can’t understand why they didn’t take out the whole 40 mile column that was stuck in the mud in February!

[Lowbankclaret]

According to the Ukrainian figures, they’ve lost 7-8000 piece’s of kit. There’s rumours the Russians have abandoned their kit in Izium too. I know you don’t believe the Ukrainian numbers, but they’re substantial either way. By the looks of things they don’t have the troops, kit or supplies to hold ground - never mind go again.

I may be underestimating Putins stupidity but I can’t see Russia trying another offensive anywhere. I do hope, that Ukraine have shown no mercy and killed off as much ongoing threat as possible though; I still can’t understand why they didn’t take out the whole 40 mile column that was stuck in the mud in February!

They didn’t have the means to destroy that column. We have to remember Ukraine was mainly Farmers and peaceful people who had very little.
In 7 months the Army has become battle hardened, trained by soldiers from all over the world. Plus been given some amazing pieces of kit that turns the tide of a battle. NLAW ‘s , Javelins, stingers etc.

Watching the blog, speak the truth and the American talking about how he travelled virtually the length of Ukraine training Ukrainians how to fire Javelins.

Go back 7 months, Russia would be rolling in with 6 tanks and 6 BTR’s facing Ukrainians withs AK47’s.

Now that same column is facing a completely different Ukrainian Soldier.

[Colburn_Claret]

We can expect a massive bombing campaign to be rained on Kupyansk and Izyum, it's the only response the Russians can make.
I'm hoping the Ukrainians are prepared and ready for it. It will probably be safer to keep chasing the Russians into the countryside all the way to the border. It's wonderful reading, but my prayers remain with them. Putin just cannot allow this without a big response, just for the sake of his face on the home front. If he does nothing he's finished.

[Lancasterclaret]

According to the Ukrainian figures, they’ve lost 7-8000 piece’s of kit. There’s rumours the Russians have abandoned their kit in Izium too. I know you don’t believe the Ukrainian numbers, but they’re substantial either way. By the looks of things they don’t have the troops, kit or supplies to hold ground - never mind go again.

I may be underestimating Putins stupidity but I can’t see Russia trying another offensive anywhere. I do hope, that Ukraine have shown no mercy and killed off as much ongoing threat as possible though; I still can’t understand why they didn’t take out the whole 40 mile column that was stuck in the mud in February!

Oh, there will be substantial equipment losses, but it does look like the Russians/LNR/DNR troops are not hanging around so they will keep a lot of their equipment.

What they won't be able to do is move the stuff that has to be stockpiled, so that ammo, fuel and food dumps will be captured, and any maintenance centres will be taken as well

A good, motivated and trained army will make sure this kind of stuff gets blown up, but I'm not sure this have managed to do that

Also, if you have even just a few platoon or companies of well trained troops, with anti tank missiles and a few tanks, you should be able to withdraw in good order and slow down the attacking troops as they won't really know what they are facing, but there isn't any evidence of any of that

The bigger the penetration gets, the harder it is for Russia to stabilise, and as long the Ukrainians maintain tactical superiority and don't over reach themselves, then it will be interesting to see how far this could go

Put it one way, if Ukraine has reserves spare then they will be heading here to exploit, and Russia will have to be abandoning positions on the flanks to try to block the advances

What you might also see if more Russian air losses, as they have to intervene here to help slow down the attack

If they don't, then you wonder if they ever will

[Lowbankclaret]

Some very worried troops out there today, I would guess that whole pocket is encircled now. You need to zoom in to the region to see it.

https://twitter.com/kamil35148325/statu ... UVNnJq4M4g

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/DylanFrank21/status ... 6323277826

Russian BMP are supposed to have amphib ability.......

[Lowbankclaret]

We can expect a massive bombing campaign to be rained on Kupyansk and Izyum, it's the only response the Russians can make.
I'm hoping the Ukrainians are prepared and ready for it. It will probably be safer to keep chasing the Russians into the countryside all the way to the border. It's wonderful reading, but my prayers remain with them. Putin just cannot allow this without a big response, just for the sake of his face on the home front. If he does nothing he's finished.

There re clips of state TV in Russia, those people spouting all the crap they have suddenly don’t know what to say, except it’s time to turn to Nukes.

Not sure slow bombers are going to be effective. Ukraine still has some fighters and air defences.

[Lowbankclaret]

https://twitter.com/DylanFrank21/status ... 6323277826

Russian BMP are supposed to have amphib ability.......

As this war has proved, lots of Russian equipment was thought to do things, it’s turned out not be capable of.

[NewClaret]

https://twitter.com/DylanFrank21/status ... 6323277826

Russian BMP are supposed to have amphib ability.......

Unfortunately this is actually Ukrainian and video is 4 years old.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eqBMm08Zy ... e=youtu.be

[Goalposts]

Russian propagandalfs are now calling for a general mobilisation as only way to prevent complete collapse in coming months, also strong suggestion that something similar is going to happen in Kherson soon

[NewClaret]

We can expect a massive bombing campaign to be rained on Kupyansk and Izyum, it's the only response the Russians can make.
I'm hoping the Ukrainians are prepared and ready for it. It will probably be safer to keep chasing the Russians into the countryside all the way to the border. It's wonderful reading, but my prayers remain with them. Putin just cannot allow this without a big response, just for the sake of his face on the home front. If he does nothing he's finished.

Yes, if they’re running they presumably cannot organise a bombing campaign.

But also, as they presumably retreat to areas where there’s safety in numbers, also greatly expose themselves to bombing campaigns?

[NewClaret]

They didn’t have the means to destroy that column. We have to remember Ukraine was mainly Farmers and peaceful people who had very little.
In 7 months the Army has become battle hardened, trained by soldiers from all over the world. Plus been given some amazing pieces of kit that turns the tide of a battle. NLAW ‘s , Javelins, stingers etc.

Watching the blog, speak the truth and the American talking about how he travelled virtually the length of Ukraine training Ukrainians how to fire Javelins.

Go back 7 months, Russia would be rolling in with 6 tanks and 6 BTR’s facing Ukrainians withs AK47’s.

Now that same column is facing a completely different Ukrainian Soldier.

I get the army point, but presumably they had a trained airforce who could launch some missiles at that column from distance? Before they laid down their air defences, etc?

I understand they may’ve lost some planes/pilots but I would’ve personally sacrificed that to end the war before it began (and saved far more civilian and military lives in the process)?

They just seemed to completely leave it? The only reason I could see at the time and now is that the barbarism may have been frowned upon globally and they’d then struggle to get western support.

It was of course funny to see them score such a spectacular own goal - it just feels like a huge missed opportunity.

[NewClaret]

Lyman also liberated

[Lowbankclaret]

I get the army point, but presumably they had a trained airforce who could launch some missiles at that column from distance? Before they laid down their air defences, etc?

I understand they may’ve lost some planes/pilots but I would’ve personally sacrificed that to end the war before it began (and saved far more civilian and military lives in the process)?

They just seemed to completely leave it? The only reason I could see at the time and now is that the barbarism may have been frowned upon globally and they’d then struggle to get western support.

It was of course funny to see them score such a spectacular own goal - it just feels like a huge missed opportunity.

Just imagine if they had some HIMARS back then, that whole column would have been smoked.

[Vino blanco]

If I were Putin, I would be planning my escape route from Russia.

[Elbarad]

Amazing news to wake up to!

It's turning into The Great Skedaddle to borrow a headline from the US Civil War.

[Colburn_Claret]

A lot of unconfirmed reports, that just go deeper and deeper into Russian held territory. It's WWII Blitzkrieg proportions.
It looks as though Russians are fleeing, and trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets River, where presumably they'll try and regroup to maintain a defence. If they have abandoned all heavy equipment that would slow them down, they aren't going to have much left to defend with.

[Lowbankclaret]

A lot of unconfirmed reports, that just go deeper and deeper into Russian held territory. It's WWII Blitzkrieg proportions.
It looks as though Russians are fleeing, and trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets River, where presumably they'll try and regroup to maintain a defence. If they have abandoned all heavy equipment that would slow them down, they aren't going to have much left to defend with.

That’s what I am reading too, let’s hope they have left most of their equipment.

[NewClaret]

Just imagine if they had some HIMARS back then, that whole column would have been smoked.

Toast.

But presumably they had some level of medium range capability and airforce as I said earlier. I just can’t see how they didn’t have some means of taking out all or some of the column.

As I say, I can only imagine that there was no political support to be so barbarous at that stage when they hadn’t done much wrong.

[NewClaret]

If I were Putin, I would be planning my escape route from Russia.

I’d be planning to wave the white flag. I sense he doesn’t like being humiliated, but also that he might prefer a short, sharp humiliation over a drawn out one.

[Vino blanco]

I wonder if the Kremlin and army will allow him a humiliation though.

[Goalposts]

Wow fighting at Donetsk airport now and Ukrainian troops in lyscishank. This is nothing short of remarkable. This is actually pushing the russians back beyond the 2014 invasion lines

[Goalposts]

https://t.co/YQRVTyCN1b

Really interesting read and analysis

[Goalposts]

Bloody hell they have now advanced to volchnansk, the whole northern flank has totally collapsed.. the last 36 hours have been nothing short of remarkable, they have recovered over 3k of sq kilometres

[Goalposts]

Russian ministries now conforming retreats as a tactical withdrawal to donetsk… its a total rout however they try to spin https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-septem ... tates-that