We're up

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:02 pm

Another step towards promotion.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:04 pm

No, we won't, electro.
It will be slightly more likely, perhaps, but that is all. If we look at this again, after the next six games, none of them straightforward, and the relatively huge gap twixt us and 3rd is anywhere near the same then we'll have a much better picture.
Follow the Magic Numbers thread if you really want to gauge how it's going game by game.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:11 pm

Just back from my copper armor testing on the hill

Looking good

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:12 pm

Having said that, Sheff United have still to play Swansea, Boro and Watford at home and Millwall, Blackburn and WBA away.
I know we have to play most of these clubs too but if they nick enough points off each other, we only have to do reasonably well to go up. The other sides can't afford to lose too many to their rivals.

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:18 pm

10 wins and a few draws required, it is looking promising but take nothing for granted.

ksrclaret · Post by **ksrclaret** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:25 pm

Let’s leave poultry counting to those down the road and let’s just admire what a team we have.

Bosscat · Post by **Bosscat** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:26 pm

evensteadiereddie wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:12 pm
Having said that, *Sheff United have still to play Swansea, Boro and Watford at home and Millwall, Blackburn and WBA away.
I know we have to play most of these clubs too but if they nick enough points off each other, we only have to do reasonably well to go up. The other sides can't afford to lose too many to their rivals.

*Very true ... some on here should remember that everyone has to play each other twice

if we keep nicking three points like this its is going to be a great 2nd half of the season

Zom Zom · Post by **Zom Zom** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:27 pm

As of now, with 3rd needing 5 games to catch us on points, promotion could be done and dusted long before we play 40 games.

Elizabeth · Post by **Elizabeth** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:38 pm

We’re up !

Not surprised that certain posters who normally like to create the cool tough maverick image are now shyly stepping back into their safe shells. Just in case, eh ?

RVclaret · Post by **RVclaret** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:54 pm

This is a tricky run of games coming up, let’s revisit this thread after these

buzzclarets79 · Post by **buzzclarets79** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:55 pm

I’ll just say one word. Humility.

Imagine if this thread was on another teams fans forum we’d be calling out the arrogance of it, let’s just enjoy the football on show, and obviously the results, and leave giving it the big “we are up” until that little “P” appears on the league table.

Then we can celebrate

claretburns · Post by **claretburns** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:57 pm

RVclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:54 pm
This is a tricky run of games coming up, let’s revisit this thread after these

Burnley 3-1 Coventry
Burnley 2-2 West Brom
Millwall 0-2 Burnley
Norwich 1-1 Burnley
Burnley 2-0 Preston
Burnley 2-1 Watford
Luton 1-2 Burnley

Though I am doing shocking in the Predictor Game so best not listen to me

Ampth7 · Post by **Ampth7** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:08 pm

No, we are not up yet, despite another fantastic result today!

However, assuming we can win 10 of our 20 remaining games that would take us to 86 points, and therefore by my reckoning 3rd place Blackburn would have to win 15 of their remaining 20 games to overhaul 86 points!!!

I’m still sticking with the 1 game at a time mantra though, but the stats are increasingly showing that we would have to have a really poor last 20 games to even allow any team from 3rd to 6th a look in.

HiThere · Post by **HiThere** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:16 pm

RVclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:54 pm
This is a tricky run of games coming up, let’s revisit this thread after these

4 at home in the next 6. I'm not worried about any side in this division at home.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:22 pm

buzzclarets79 wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:55 pm
I’ll just say one word. Humility.

Imagine if this thread was on another teams fans forum we’d be calling out the arrogance of it, let’s just enjoy the football on show, and obviously the results, and leave giving it the big “we are up” until that little “P” appears on the league table.

Then we can celebrate

If you've read the thread from the start, its lots of people taking the p**s somewhat!

I don't think anyone is being serious!

We are looking very, very strong and I'm very, very confident, but that is based on our performances, not some message board bravado that some fans have after they win two on the trot or something equally daft

Its a tremendous feeling to have being this good and we should all be enjoying it while it lasts

Elizabeth · Post by **Elizabeth** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:22 pm

buzzclarets79 wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:55 pm
I’ll just say one word. Humility

Of course that’s an important human quality.

When is it right thought to do a bit of humble bragging?

Suppression is not healthy

1882Clarets1882 · Post by **1882Clarets1882** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:24 pm

West Brom , for me, are the the one to keep an eye on. Their form has been excellent recently. We play em soon , that'll be a big test .

Here's the current form table --

: Screenshot_20230102-183642_Chrome.jpg (396.28 KiB) Viewed 3347 times

fatboy47 · Post by **fatboy47** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:26 pm

There WILL be defeats....and at times we'll trail in games.
It'll really help if the usual suspects fetch their big-boy pants along to the match thread. The fans on the ground have got the hang of this...time for the keyboard chaps to step up now.

Hurstwood_Claret · Post by **Hurstwood_Claret** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:30 pm

I think the rest of the season will go like

Burnley 3-1 Coventry (59 pts)
Burnley 2-2 West Brom (60)
Millwall 0-2 Burnley (63)
Norwich 1-1 Burnley (64)
Burnley 2-0 Preston (67)
Burnley 2-1 Watford (70)
Luton 1-2 Burnley (73)
Burnley 3-0 Hudd (76)
Blackpool 3-4 Burnley (79)
Burnley 4-1 Wigan (82)
Hull 1-2 Burnley (85)
R*v*rs 0-5 Burnley (88)
Burnley 3-2 sunderland (91)
Middlesborough 0-2 Burnley (94)
Burnley 3-3 Sheff United (95)
Reading 2-3 Burnley (98)
Burnley 3-1 QPR (101)
Bristol 1 - 3 Burnley (104)
Burnley 4-0 Cardiff (107)

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:31 pm

https://twitter.com/secondtierpod/statu ... 6819596289

NottsClaret · Post by **NottsClaret** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:33 pm

1882Clarets1882 wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:24 pm
West Brom , for me, are the the one to keep an eye on. Their form has been excellent recently. We play em soon , that'll be a big test .

I think they need to go up or they go bust. Just taken another £20m loan out or something to keep them going. Look good for the play offs though, one of the better sides we’ve played, and that was when Bruce was still there.

fanzone · Post by **fanzone** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:38 pm

I think we only need 8 more wins

Hibsclaret · Post by **Hibsclaret** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:56 pm

I have just checked the Reading record. They had 20 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeat after 26 games. It will be going some but can we get near the record? Very difficult but definitely not impossible for this team. I think we are still in 3rd gear and one or two looked leggy today. A few nice 1 game weeks and we may get into 4th gear.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:00 pm

Elizabeth wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:38 pm
We’re up !

Not surprised that certain posters who normally like to create the cool tough maverick image are now shyly stepping back into their safe shells. Just in case, eh ?

Perhaps they know the game and how, however unlikely it seems, things can go awry, love that word, very quickly.
Well that and not being hypocritical enough to criticise other clubs' fans' arrogance and then indulge in it themselves.

Rileybobs · Post by **Rileybobs** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:04 pm

It’s not arrogance to suggest that we’re up, it’s using the balance of probability to make a statement with a very high level of certainty. Do you lot not sing the E-I-E-I-E-I-O chant?

And if things do go wrong, which they won’t because as it’s already been established we’re up, I will take solace in the fact that my words have had absolutely no effect on that outcome.

Elizabeth · Post by **Elizabeth** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:10 pm

evensteadiereddie wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:00 pm
Perhaps they know the game and how, however unlikely it seems, things can go awry, love that word, very quickly.
Well that and not being hypocritical enough to criticise other clubs' fans' arrogance and then indulge in it themselves.

Nice one eddie

1882Clarets1882 · Post by **1882Clarets1882** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:19 pm

NottsClaret wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 02, 2023 6:33 pm
I think they need to go up or they go bust. Just taken another £20m loan out or something to keep them going. Look good for the play offs though, one of the better sides we’ve played, and that was when Bruce was still there.

Yeah you're right. They just missed a financial deadline, yesterday I think it was . Off the field they're in a right old pickle but since the new manager arrived they've barely put a foot wrong.

dibraidio · Post by **dibraidio** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 8:12 pm

RVclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 02, 2023 5:54 pm
This is a tricky run of games coming up, let’s revisit this thread after these

Win them all and we'll be on 77 points. If you look at the last 10 games it's been predominantly teams in the top half of the table. I don't think those fixtures are anything to worry about.

I've never been more confident that a Burnley team will be able to maintain their good form, if anything we may get better.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 8:18 pm

With the sole exception of Sunderland in 1997-98 ( they got 90 points and finished 3rd, losing out to Charlton in the play-offs ), 89 points has always been enough to clinch automatic promotion since the formation of the Premier League.

The average 3rd place finish has been achieved on 84 points or so in that time, although this year may be an outlier. There are 10 points that separate Blackburn in 3rd place ( 42 ) and Birmingham in 17th ( 32 ). This indicates that these teams are fairly even and on any given day, could beat each other.

If our form was to drop off, and finish with say 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses, we'd finish on 83 points .... Middlesborough would then need 44 points from 20 games to tie with us eg: 13 wins, 4 draws & 3 losses, West Brom would need 45 ...

I don't like to count chickens, but it certainly looks promising ....

JimmyRobbo · Post by **JimmyRobbo** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 8:39 pm

It's against my nature to do this, as a Burnley fan.

If I wasn't, and I was analysing it purely from a neutral perspective then:

Most teams gain approx 2 points per game if they are on a promotion run.
That is about 40 more points.
We are 14 ahead so they need to gain 26 points on us.
Win 9 out of 20 and we are probably there.

Right, back to normality, nothing is sorted until it is sorted.

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 9:48 pm

We aren't up by any means, however it's definitely in our own hands now after our recent fantastic run of wins that has helped us pull clear of the pack.

And if anyone apart from Sheff Utd has any hope of catching us they'll have to go on a crazy run of form, and we'd have to suffer a severe dip in form, not out of the question, but extremely unlikely for both to occur, and we're almost at the stage where our points advantage matches the remaining games available to those chasing, which as a general rule of thumb means promotion.

I was concerrned whether the hectic Christmas schedule might see us stumble, however the complete opposite has transpired and we now look more likely to go further clear than for the gap to narrow.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 10:01 pm

We’re not up, but we will be.

The main rivals to burst into the top two, even if they get 2 pts per game (better than Blades so far) would only get to 80. One may achieve that.

We need 24 points to get to that level - from 20 games. That is form for a side who would finish about 19th. It won’t happen.

So we will be going up. We aren’t suddenly going to become one of the worst sides in the league.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 10:48 pm

Spiral wrote: ↑
Fri Dec 30, 2022 9:48 pm
We need to lose five and 3rd place needs to win five straight to knock us out of the automatic places. We aren't losing five between now and the end of the season. Rovers (or whoever finishes 3rd) aren't winning every one of those games we hypothetically lose. We have squad depth and a full transfer window.

We are already up. Promotion in the bag by Dec 31st. Just be professional for a few months and that's it. It's done. Absolutely effing unreal.

I'm not doctor but I think you are suffering from Premature celebration

Spiral · Post by **Spiral** » Mon Jan 02, 2023 11:23 pm

What if Blackburn are in a false position?

Blackburn are currently 15th in the form table. They've had a really weird season. What if their results begin to more closely match their, let's say, serviceable performances, and their ppg begins to average out with a few long-awaited draws? We're all looking at 3rd place to calculate the distance we currently have to the playoffs, but if some of us truly are of the belief that Blackburn are in a false position (as the form table might suggest), not because it's Blackburn, but because they look no better than Sunderland or Preston or Millwall, and are being chased by the likes of Middlesbrough and WBA who are both ascending (fourth and third respectively in the form table); in this scenario where Blackburn hypothetically cool off even just a tiny bit, the team that mathematically is closest to overtaking them, the one we need to look at to catch us, is Watford on 40pts, not Rovers on 42pts. And to top that off our GD is an absolute obscenity compared to the teams 3rd and below. You could contrive a 16pt gap, effectively 17 including GD, if you view Watford as the best placed of the chasing pack.

I know, I know, you can do these hypotheticals to the point of absurdity, and maybe doing it even once is absurd, but, like, come on? Can anyone actually see Rovers keeping this WLWLWL trend up?

Commy · Post by **Commy** » Tue Jan 03, 2023 1:39 am

Even with West Brom and Middlesbrough's results we have still pulled 3 points clear of them in 6 games and even if we draw or lose, they are going to as well at some point. Hopefully the losses will be against us.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:06 pm

Just listening to a podcast Second Tier, and apparently only 5 teams have picked up more points than Burnley, after 26 games, in the history of the Championship.
We really would want shooting if we managed to miss promotion from here.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:14 pm

Colburn_Claret wrote: ↑
Tue Jan 03, 2023 4:06 pm
Just listening to a podcast Second Tier, and apparently only 5 teams have picked up more points than Burnley, after 26 games, in the history of the Championship.
We really would want shooting if we managed to miss promotion from here.

We won’t.

The trouble is with those of us with superstitious minds or a nervous disposition who fill the above thread is that waiting until it is mathematical doesn’t leave much time for celebrating before we start losing more games in the Premier League. I’m enjoying now the feeling we are definitely going up - that is 7 months of pleasure before the worry about relegation starts.

Ok, at times that optimistic approach can come back to bite us in life, but this won’t be one of those times

yes, I’m aware of the confirmation bias that’s evident in that statement

simonclaret · Post by **simonclaret** » Tue Jan 03, 2023 5:07 pm

tiger76 wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 02, 2023 9:48 pm
it's definitely in our own hands now

I agree

Spiral · Post by **Spiral** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:01 pm

Still up.

Rileybobs · Post by **Rileybobs** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:02 pm

We’re more up than we were before, and even then we were up.

Croydon Claret · Post by **Croydon Claret** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:02 pm

We're up but the trophy is far from decided

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:02 pm

No doubt whatsoever.

HiThere · Post by **HiThere** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:06 pm

Croydon Claret wrote: ↑
Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:02 pm
We're up but the trophy is far from decided

If we do win the title, I hope they sort their **** out this time and get the trophy to the right destination.

Croydon Claret · Post by **Croydon Claret** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:09 pm

HiThere wrote: ↑
Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:06 pm
If we do win the title, I hope they sort their **** out this time and get the trophy to the right destination.

Think they have a "rule" that they will only present it at a home stadium. That wasn't the excuse they gave last time though

LoveCurryPies · Post by **LoveCurryPies** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:10 pm

Way too early to be calling this. It’s looking great but anything can happen.

Whitgord · Post by **Whitgord** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:37 pm

The teams in third place and below just can’t put any run of results together. Plus, we don’t look like losing many at all. Plus, we are SIXTEEN points clear of third. I really can’t see anybody but Sheffield catching us. Relax.

MACCA · Post by **MACCA** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:45 pm

We are 100% up

We won't lose 6 games

Flip.a coin for the title still at the minute, however IF we win the next 2, we will be champions imo

tiger76 · Post by **tiger76** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:50 pm

Croydon Claret wrote: ↑
Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:02 pm
We're up but the trophy is far from decided

Good that will keep the lads on their toes, Sheff Utd could still overhaul us, however they do have to visit TM which we are making into a fortress.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:51 pm

We could go 19 points clear on Friday

That is ridiculous

HiThere · Post by **HiThere** » Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:51 pm

MACCA wrote: ↑
Sat Jan 14, 2023 6:45 pm
We are 100% up
We won't lose 6 games

It's not about whether we'll lose 6 games. If we draw and 3rd place win then catch 2 points on us.
I often look at games and points. If we can be equal or more points ahead of 3rd place than games remaining that's when I'll think we've done it. 16 points clear and 19 games left so not quite there yet.