16 points clear of third

[Big Vinny K]

VK will quite rightly take the one game at a time approach until we are guaranteed promotion so we do not need to worry about complacency from the players or management for sure. Even when we are up I don’t think we will see much of a drop off.

But the best basis for what is going to happen in the rest of the season for all of the teams has got to be what has happened up to now. And on that evidence it could well be that 72 or 73 points will be enough.

Of course Watford, West Brom, Watford, Boro could in theory all go on incredible runs like Burnley and Sheffield United have been on but I can’t see any of these teams changing their players to any great degree so they are reliant on their new managers making a massive difference…..but the other thing they are reliant on which is even less likely is Burnley and Sheff United collapsing and we know in our case we already have a fantastic manager and we are bringing in new players to make us even stronger.

No counting chickens yet but I’ve got them all lined up and switched my calculator on ready

[Bosscat]

As I can't edit, the figures are based on the best case scenario for another side going on a fantastic run.

When we last went up we'd got 51 points out of the last 22 matches. That's 2.32 pts per game or 106 points over the season. If Watford were to replicate that form for here it would leave them on 87.

Likewise WBA on 85.

Can anyone realistically see any of the chasing pack accumulating 2 points a game (or better) over the last 19 matches because I certain
ly can`t.
At 2 points average per game, Watford would finish on 81 points meaning we only need 23 points from our 19 matches to be above that (1.2 points per game).

Yes its not cut and dried ... but we would have to have a catastrophic run to do that.

Yes we will lose a couple of games in those 19 matches but bloody hell we have only lost 2 in the 1st 27 games (and just won 7 on the bounce)...

[RVclaret]

Can anyone realistically see any of the chasing pack accumulating 2 points a game (or better) over the last 19 matches because I certain
ly can`t.
At 2 points average per game, Watford would finish on 81 points meaning we only need 23 points from our 19 matches to be above that (1.2 points per game).

Yes its not cut and dried ... but we would have to have a catastrophic run to do that.

Yes we will lose a couple of games in those 19 matches but bloody hell we have only lost 2 in the 1st 27 games...

I think West Brom and Boro are averaging over 2 points a game since Corberan and Carrick were appointed.

[RVclaret]

Yes Brom are at 2.45 points a game under Corberan and Boro 2.27 points a game under Carrick

[Bosscat]

Carrick joined in October as did Corberan

Middlesbrough 24 October 2022 12 8 1 3 66.7
Burnley ........................... 12 11 0 1 91.6
West Brom 25 October 2022 ..... 12 9 1 2 75.00

[Spijed]

Yes Brom are at 2.45 points a game under Corberan and Boro 2.27 points a game under Carrick

So that would leave WBA on 88 points.

[Commy]

Yes Brom are at 2.45 points a game under Corberan and Boro 2.27 points a game under Carrick

Hopefully West Brom will be less after Friday

Sheff Utd have similar games to us against the top of the table.

[taio]

With the bookies we are 1/20 for promotion for a reason.

[Spijed]

With the bookies we are 1/20 for promotion for a reason.

I think the bookies think automatic promotion is pretty much sorted with Sheff United at 1/5 as well.

[Bosscat]

this was Jan 3rd

2022-23 Championship winner odds – favourites
Burnley @ 4/11
Sheffield United @ 5/2
Middlesbrough @ 50/1
West Brom @ 66/1
80/1 bar

[Ampth7]

Final points haul for the 3rd place teams over the past 4 years are as follows -
2021-2022 - Huddersfield- 82
2020-2021 - Brentford - 87
2019-2020 - Brentford - 81
2018-2019 - Leeds - 83

Average that out and you get 83.25. Therefore, even if a team were to match Brentford’s 87 points we would need 29 more points to get to 88 which is 9 more wins plus 2 draws. Nearest place Watford would therefore have to accumulate 44 points from 57 to hit 87 which essentially means they would have to win 14 games, draw 2 leaving only 3 defeats left to play with.

Basically, the odds are, if we win 9/10 more games from the last 19 this should be enough for promotion, hence the one-game at a time mantra regardless of what anyone else does. Coincidentally, the next game is absolutely huge as West Brom are flying right now and we will need to be on it for the full 90 to get a good result.
UTC!!!

[Dingo]

Whatever happens this season will be one to remember for life. In terms of the three major outcomes left, we either continue as we are and gain automatic promotion (highly likely), we drop into the playoffs and go up (that’ll be a rollercoaster of fun), or we have a spectacular downturn in form, dropping out of the top two and not going up via the playoffs or otherwise, in which case that’ll certainly be a memorable collapse. So memories being made whatever happens.

[tiger76]

I understand the natural caution from some fans, but let's be realistic our form would have to fall off a cliff for the next 19 games, and someone in the chasing pack would equally have to go on a remarkable run.

Both could happen but it's not very likely is it.

Even say another 30 points would take us 89, which would mean with our vastly superior GD, Boro, Watford or West Brom who look the most likely challengers would have to win 16/17 of their remaining fixtures, and both still have to play each other I think, plus both have to also visit Turf Moor.

Good thing for us that Boro, Watford and West Brom appointed the wrong managers at the start of the campaign therefore allowing us to build a nice head start on them, and Norwich after showing early promise have also faded leading to Dean Smith getting the push.

[Spijed]

I understand the natural caution from some fans, but let's be realistic our form would have to fall off a cliff for the next 19 games, and someone in the chasing pack would equally have to go on a remarkable run.

Both could happen but it's not very likely is it.

Even say another 30 points would take us 89, which would mean with our vastly superior GD, Boro, Watford or West Brom who look the most likely challengers would have to win 16/17 of their remaining fixtures, and both still have to play each other I think, plus both have to also visit Turf Moor.

Good thing for us that Boro, Watford and West Brom appointed the wrong managers at the start of the campaign therefore allowing us to build a nice head start on them, and Norwich after showing early promise have also faded leading to Dean Smith getting the push.

The one thing I'd say about GD is that it becomes irrelevant if teams do manage to close the gap. A big upturn in points tends to lead to a dramatic improvement in goal difference.

[Spijed]

I'd put this in the WBA thread, but more relevant here perhaps:

Without doing more analysis it's hard to work out why the current points total in the play-off positions is lower than in previous seasons.
That and the fact that ourselves and Sheff United are over performing has created such a big gap between the top two and the rest.
Probably just a one-off this season and at the very least the play-off teams doing better next year.
Therefore hard to say whether the league in general is getting more competitive with more teams at the bottom getting points.

On current performance we certainly won't be needing anymore than 23-24 points from 18 matches to secure promotion as it's looking like the teams below the promotion places simply aren't putting any runs together that are consistent enough to get them in the high 80's.

[FulledgeClaret]

In the Championship? Mathematically I don't think so. I read recently that only 1 team has had more points than what we have at this stage of the season.

it was Reading in 05/06 when they set the record for points in the championship at 106, they finished the season with a points per game of 2.30 we are currently on 2.21 doubt we will top 106pts but we may well run it very close, getting to 100 points isnt too far fetched for this team. after game week 28 they had 69 points and were 18pts clear of Leeds in 3rd. funnily enough Sheff utd were 2nd with 62 points and were promoted with 90 pts. that season was a lot like this season looking at league tables and points gap between the top 3.

[Commy]

Will be interesting to see how the current points total for the team in third compares to last few seasons as that's the only figure that really matters.

https://www.transfermarkt.com/champions ... n=1&max=28

[Rileybobs]

On current trajectories if we lost our next 12 games we would still be in the top two going into the final six games of the season.

[Spijed]

https://www.transfermarkt.com/champions ... n=1&max=28

Good link

[Spijed]

On current trajectories if we lost our next 12 games we would still be in the top two going into the final six games of the season.

We need 11 more points to be promoted.

[tiger76]

The win last night and others dropping points today have all but sealed the deal in reality, yes we need to stay professional and play each game on it's merits, however it would take such a bizarre run of results to deny us promotion now.

[roperclaret]

7 more wins will pretty much guarantee it

[wilks_bfc]

It’s frustrating we dropped those 6pts late in those 3 games against WBA, Cardiff & Birmingham earlier in the season on top of the 2 lower in the 2 minutes of madness against Blackpool as the gap would have been even bigger

[Spijed]

With Watford, West Brom and now Boro all faltering five wins and a few draws is all we require.

[Wokingclaret]

It’s frustrating we dropped those 6pts late in those 3 games against WBA, Cardiff & Birmingham earlier in the season on top of the 2 lower in the 2 minutes of madness against Blackpool as the gap would have been even bigger

Not really, that was part of the learning curve

[tiger76]

It’s frustrating we dropped those 6pts late in those 3 games against WBA, Cardiff & Birmingham earlier in the season on top of the 2 lower in the 2 minutes of madness against Blackpool as the gap would have been even bigger

Swings and roundabouts, and we've recently gained a lot of points late on to make up for those ones we spilled earlier in the season.

[bfcmik]

As it stands, if either Millwall or Luton win their game in hand it would take them into 3rd, a point in front of Watford. Neither are playing it before 4th Feb though. A pessimist would say that we are technically only 17 points clear of 3rd with 18 still to play.

Personally, I believe that, once you are a point per game in front, you ain't being caught, so 18 in front with 18 to play looks REALLY good.

[Jakubclaret]

I'm pretty much amazed how well we've done considering the transition after SD left it's a testament to how far we've come in a short space of time, barring some freak collapse we can more or less pop the corks out of the champagne bottles now, it's not 100% no but you just can't see anything other than promotion on the horizon.

[Spijed]

This was taken from twitter apparently:

3rd-placed #WatfordFC are closer to yesterday's opponents, 20th-placed #RUFC, in the Championship table, than they are to 2nd-placed #SUFC. That's how far clear the top 2 are. Rotherham to Watford: -13pts, -12GD; Watford to Sheffield United: -13pts -19GD. Automatic has gone.

[Duffer_]

Every day seems to offer a new front runner for 'best of the rest' that might be capable of putting together a run of form. West Brom have certainly picked up but we are 21 points clear of them and they were soundly beaten on Friday. Likewise Boro, beaten by a decent Sunderland team today and 20 points adrift. The only other team I can see getting 2+ points per game in the run in is Norwich, who may also benefit from a new manager bounce. That bounce might be sustained under Wagner.

I reckon 20 points gets it done and maybe less if we beat Norwich. Plenty of teams slitting each other's throats in the battle to reach the playoffs. We might even be seen as the team to rest/rotate players against to focus on more winnable games, or is that a bit too cocky?

[Spijed]

I reckon 20 points gets it done and maybe less if we beat Norwich. Plenty of teams slitting each other's throats in the battle to reach the playoffs. We might even be seen as the team to rest/rotate players against to focus on more winnable games, or is that a bit too cocky?

I think those in the play-offs will have given up on automatic promotion and will be looking to cement a play-off spot. That's to say they won't take any undue risks from hereon in. I doubt any of those sides will risk a defeat in trying to get wins if a draw is there for the taking.

That's why I think Sheff United are doing us a favour by keeping up with us as it's draining any confidence from those below us.

[claretspice]

It'd take the mother of all collapses from here, but the only note of caution is that we've 10 of 18 games remaining away, and apart from Watford and Sheff U which we've lost, those 10 games include the current top 8. Indeed of the current top half, we've played 5, lost those two, only beaten Swansea (12th) and Sunderland (9th) and drawn at WBA having been outplayed.

Starting at Norwich, the last frontier for this team is to prove it can win (and replicate those home performances) at those venues. If we can, and I'm optimistic, then we can start dreaming of records. Until then there's still a job to do, however promising its looking.

[Commy]

Sheff Utd have West Brom, Middlesbrough and Watford at home and Norwich away.

[RVclaret]

Starting at Norwich, the last frontier for this team is to prove it can win (and replicate those home performances) at those venues. If we can, and I'm optimistic, then we can start dreaming of records. Until then there's still a job to do, however promising its looking.

Agree spice. We’ve not yet delivered in one of those games like you say, albeit worth mentioning we’ve improved significantly since both of those at the start of the season (we were still starting with Costelloe at Watford, had no Jay, Tella etc.) I think even a point at Norwich would be good. Keep them 20 points behind us as we head into 2 home fixtures (including a big one v Watford midweek under the lights).

[AfloatinClaret]

Perhaps not so surprising: This morning I watched (unusually) ITV's equivalent of Match of the Day covering the Championship and for the first time fully appreciated just how many ex-Burnley players are not simply plying their trade with other Championship teams, but are seemingly important/key players for them; those are all players who we considered not good enough/past their sell by dates to be considered for our team. It might've been assembled on a budget, but our starting eleven are a match for anyone and better than most, while our substitutes' bench is streets ahead of everybody else; while we were bringing on Manuel Benson, Robbie Brady was still tramping up and down the wing at St Andrews.

[arise_sir_charge]

All the teams below have to play each other as well, starting on Saturday with Boro V Watford. They can’t all keep winning. If one team is going to come out of the pack they need to get a move on as we aren’t hanging round!

[Carwin261]

It'd take the mother of all collapses from here, but the only note of caution is that we've 10 of 18 games remaining away, and apart from Watford and Sheff U which we've lost, those 10 games include the current top 8. Indeed of the current top half, we've played 5, lost those two, only beaten Swansea (12th) and Sunderland (9th) and drawn at WBA having been outplayed.

Starting at Norwich, the last frontier for this team is to prove it can win (and replicate those home performances) at those venues. If we can, and I'm optimistic, then we can start dreaming of records. Until then there's still a job to do, however promising its looking.

We’ve to play 8 of the bottom 11,& none of them are in a false position ,I reckon we’ll get at least 18 points out of that lot,that gives us 80 points,Watford would have to win at least12 matches even if we don’t get a point out of the other 8 games.

[claretspice]

Agree spice. We’ve not yet delivered in one of those games like you say, albeit worth mentioning we’ve improved significantly since both of those at the start of the season (we were still starting with Costelloe at Watford, had no Jay, Tella etc.) I think even a point at Norwich would be good. Keep them 20 points behind us as we head into 2 home fixtures (including a big one v Watford midweek under the lights).

Nothing wrong with a point, in an assured performance, at Norwich. The point about Watford is fair but the WBA and Sheff U performances remain the outliers this season after that initial bedding period- mitigating factors for both, but still the challenge for this team remains to prove it can go to those places and impose itself. Good challenge to have.

[claretspice]

We’ve to play 8 of the bottom 11,& none of them are in a false position ,I reckon we’ll get at least 18 points out of that lot,that gives us 80 points,Watford would have to win at least12 matches even if we don’t get a point out of the other 8 games.

Yes I'm not worrying about promotion- as I say its thr mother of all collapses from here - but more checking the stuff about setting records. Focus on proving ourselves in those away games first amd showingwe really are the resl deal. Do that and everything takes care of itself.

[AfloatinClaret]

Nothing wrong with a point, in an assured performance, at Norwich. The point about Watford is fair but the WBA and Sheff U performances remain the outliers this season after that initial bedding period- mitigating factors for both, but still the challenge for this team remains to prove it can go to those places and impose itself. Good challenge to have.

But easier for players to relax and play to their best when a result means the opposition 'get just a bit closer' rather than in previous seasons when they were thinking 'we need something to avoid relegation'

[Spijed]

95% chance of promotion

[boatshed bill]

It'd take the mother of all collapses from here, but the only note of caution is that we've 10 of 18 games remaining away, and apart from Watford and Sheff U which we've lost, those 10 games include the current top 8. Indeed of the current top half, we've played 5, lost those two, only beaten Swansea (12th) and Sunderland (9th) and drawn at WBA having been outplayed.

Starting at Norwich, the last frontier for this team is to prove it can win (and replicate those home performances) at those venues. If we can, and I'm optimistic, then we can start dreaming of records. Until then there's still a job to do, however promising its looking.

Not arguing the point you are making here, but the league positions of most clubs are fluctuating so much we can't be sure any that we play will be top or bottom half of the table.
Win 9 and lose 9 would put us on 89pts, looks pretty good to me.

[claretspice]

That's true about the middle of the table, although it's beginning to look as though the core play-off contenders are Watford, West Brom, Boro, Norwich, Millwall, Luton and possibly Blackburn. That middle grouping that has been fluctuating looks a notch down on quality to me.

I'd be more than happy with 89 points, with the caveat that it'd be great to keep momentum towards the end of the season to build towards the Premier League. But the first objective is getting over the line.

[boatshed bill]

That's true about the middle of the table, although it's beginning to look as though the core play-off contenders are Watford, West Brom, Boro, Norwich, Millwall, Luton and possibly Blackburn. That middle grouping that has been fluctuating looks a notch down on quality to me.

I'd be more than happy with 89 points, with the caveat that it'd be great to keep momentum towards the end of the season to build towards the Premier League. But the first objective is getting over the line.

It certainly would.
I guess (expecting us to blood our new signings) we may see a little inconsistency for a few weeks, but we look so far ahead of third now.

[tiger76]

Boro beating Watford another result which aids us, Boro 17 points adrift but we still have a game in hand, that win also pushes Rovers down to 5th.

[HiThere]

Boro beating Watford another result which aids us, Boro 17 points adrift but we still have a game in hand, that win also pushes Rovers down to 5th.

Friends were surprised when I said a few weeks ago that Boro would make the playoffs. I think they were something like 15th at the time. Look at how well they have done overall outside us beating them.

[Rick_Muller]

Friends were surprised when I said a few weeks ago that Boro would make the playoffs. I think they were something like 15th at the time. Look at how well they have done overall outside us beating them.

They only had to make up something like 4 points to jump from 15th to playoffs though as it’s so congested in the middle

[HiThere]

They only had to make up something like 4 points to jump from 15th to playoffs though as it’s so congested in the middle

Crazily tight isn't it. But at the time they were just outside the relegation zone and I was just impressed with what Carrick was doing. I expected a tougher test when we played them but it wasn't to be.