Russia Invades

Firthy · Post by **Firthy** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:21 am

Maybe this has come about because Russia tried to take over Wagner and get them to sign contracts. Prigohzin would then be left with no army so this is his only option if his leadership has been put in doubt by these actions

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:26 am

All along I've been hoping someone on Russia's inside would see sense and an opportunity and topple Putin, but not bloody Progozhin!!! He's an absolute animal and clearly a nut job which makes him extremely scary!! Having said that he has been quoted as saying one thing which is absolutely true. The invasion of Ukraine was about one thing and one thing only. It was simply a vanity project for those at the top and it's gone horribly wrong.

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:27 am

Another, possibly relevant, move is that Lukashenko (or at least his family jet) has left Belarus. I saw a report last night that he'd left with the supposition he was going to be with his mate Vlad but he's evidently landed in Turkey.

Rats/ships etc (although the guy has had big health problems I believe) https://twitter.com/StarskyUA/status/16 ... 6341240832

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:28 am

https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status ... 0495180800

For those unaware of how Putin runs Russia and specifically people like Prigozhin, this is a good (and short) explainer

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:35 am

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672538291302813696

Ukrainian army are taking the p**s big style

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:36 am

Google maps helpfully telling everyone that the M-4 (Voronezh-Moscow) is closed along most of its length

https://twitter.com/alistaircoleman/sta ... 8903482368

TsarBomba · Post by **TsarBomba** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:38 am

Lukashenko will be watching on nervously. His fate is tied in with Putin.

Lots of Belarusians fighting for Ukraine, and there has been talk in recent days of Belarusians undergoing training in Poland to overthrow Lukashenko.

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:43 am

This could be like the police chasing OJ Simpson live ! It’s almost too hard to believe .

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:44 am

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status ... 9331767297

Air raid sirens and burning oil depots in Voronezh

There is clearly fighting going on

welsbyswife · Post by **welsbyswife** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:49 am

Wonder what level of contact our intelligence services have had with Wagner? If we have any understanding of what the guy would do if he toppled Putin. Get the sense that Russia really is on a knife edge.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:53 am

Tricky Trevor wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:30 am
I read an article recently where Putin falling is a scary option as the people queueing up behind him are even more extreme and might not be bothered by turning to nuclear weapons.
NATO cannot let Russia win as they will continue their expansionism. Too late now but they should have gone in on day one and shown Russia that Europe stands shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine.

I said the same on about page 2 of this thread.

welsbyswife · Post by **welsbyswife** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:57 am

Not sure how us piling in would have helped to make Russia more stable. More likely it would have had the opposite effect and reinforced their view that the west is against them, playing into the hands of the nut jobs even more.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:02 am

Jellybean wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:01 am
Is it not terrifying that this guy heading up Wagner may become president, he seems brutal. Do we think he is being backed by other nations perhaps, that he sees how ridiculous this invasion is from the front line and would withdraw from Ukraine to sort Russia out? I can't work out what is good and bad here!

Imo Prigozhin just wants the power, he's learnt that Russia cannot win, and he could pull back and lay the blame at Putins door.
Sadly the West has a history of making deals with despots.
So long as the outcome sees Ukraine back in control of its pre 2014 borders, and left to rebuild, with our help, I'd be happy.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:08 am

welsbyswife wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:49 am
Wonder what level of contact our intelligence services have had with Wagner? If we have any understanding of what the guy would do if he toppled Putin. Get the sense that Russia really is on a knife edge.

We don't seem to do well interfering in other countries leaderships.

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:10 am

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:44 am
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status ... 9331767297

Air raid sirens and burning oil depots in Voronezh

There is clearly fighting going on

Bombed by airforce element loyal to Putin it seems- presumably trying to deprive Wagner side of fuel for transport.
There have been helicopters and at least one plane shot down by Wagner side but there hasnt been a whole lot of AF activity yet on either side that Ive seen. You'd expect Putin to want to see big air strikes on Wagner columns/Rostov.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:12 am

LeadBelly wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:27 am
Another, possibly relevant, move is that Lukashenko (or at least his family jet) has left Belarus. I saw a report last night that he'd left with the supposition he was going to be with his mate Vlad but he's evidently landed in Turkey.

Rats/ships etc (although the guy has had big health problems I believe) https://twitter.com/StarskyUA/status/16 ... 6341240832

No way of knowing if that's true, but what a good time for the people of Belarus to rise up. The army isn't likely to fight for a prat who's done a runner.
It would be another nail for Putin.

Nonayforever · Post by **Nonayforever** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:13 am

I don't think Prizogin wants to be President, more likely head of military.
Possibly someone up the ladder who wants to be President feeding him with info with the promise that when he succeeds Putin the army goes to Prigozhin.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:21 am

Colburn_Claret wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:02 am
Imo Prigozhin just wants the power, he's learnt that Russia cannot win, and he could pull back and lay the blame at Putins door.
Sadly the West has a history of making deals with despots.
So long as the outcome sees Ukraine back in control of its pre 2014 borders, and left to rebuild, with our help, I'd be happy.

The USA and the West realise Russia needs some sort of Victory so unlikely Ukraine gets to take back Crimea.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:29 am

LeadBelly wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:10 am
Bombed by airforce element loyal to Putin it seems- presumably trying to deprive Wagner side of fuel for transport.
There have been helicopters and at least one plane shot down by Wagner side but there hasnt been a whole lot of AF activity yet on either side that Ive seen. You'd expect Putin to want to see big air strikes on Wagner columns/Rostov.

Yeah, wagner relies on Russian MOD for all its logistics, so stopping them with the minimum of fighting it would make perfect sense just to get them to run out of fuel in the middle of nowhere

Course, the Russian MOD managed to do this without trying for hundreds of Russian vehicles during the initial invasion of Ukraine.........

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:36 am

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/stat ... 2526889985

So it looks like a Wagner SAM missed the helicopter and hit the oil depot

They are fighting in areas surrounded by civilians, who are only just realising what is going on

I'm not saying they deserve it, but they might be getting some idea of how Russian troops react in civilian areas in Ukraine

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:39 am

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 3518472193

Air strike on one of the Wagner columns

TsarBomba · Post by **TsarBomba** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:42 am

Wagner allegedly through Voronezh and towards Lipetsk.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:43 am

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 2296531971

Same helicopter launching flares, just being missed by a SAM

TsarBomba · Post by **TsarBomba** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:44 am

https://twitter.com/warmonitors/status/ ... Gkg4Pp-4vg

Incredible footage.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:09 pm

Wow

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/statu ... 6632574976

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:11 pm

Claretnick wrote: ↑
Fri Jun 23, 2023 11:28 pm
Some speculation that those generals have been arrested, time will tell
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/sta ... 19044?s=20

The guy in the above video to the right of Prigohzin is a ringer for that general on the right in my video one post above

Gerashchenko may well be right, at least about one general

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:32 pm

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 0832588802

Big Convoy of Kadroyvites (Chechens) in the Rostov region

Loyal to Putin

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:40 pm

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 45474?s=20
Local people seem OK with the mercenaries,if this dtsrts being replicated it could start a domino effect.

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:54 pm

Ive seen this clip before (Prigozhin meeting regime local commanders in Rostov) but not with a translation to English. He's pretty forthright.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/statu ... 6632574976

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:12 pm

OsintTechnical: Confirmed by Fighterbomber, Russian An-26 downed today over Voronezh Oblast by Wagner forces.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... XbpxEsmRVg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:25 pm

OsintTechnical: Wagner convoy now moving north towards Moscow on the M4 in Horse-Kolodezsky, Lipetsk Oblast, T-90S and BMP-2 on heavy equipment transporters.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... XbpxEsmRVg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:31 pm

Think the best for the Wagner push is that it is a close run failure. I.e. massively destabilise Moscow and give Ukraine opportunity to push on for its objectives. Wagner is a Warlord and not where Russia needs to go, but he may be a means to an end.

China will be looking on licking their lips, all the land ceded into the USSR in 1969. One side effect may well be that Taiwan is safer than it’s been for some time, at least for now.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:39 pm

OsintTechnical: Russian milblogger Rybar provided a short update a little while ago.

Per reports, Wagner forces reached Yelets, Lipetsk Oblast, roughly 350km from Moscow.

Rybar claims that the Wagner column includes anywhere from 150-400 pieces of equipment/vehicles.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... XbpxEsmRVg

dermotdermot · Post by **dermotdermot** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:39 pm

Does anyone think that this could all go pear shaped with Putin retreating to his nuclear bunker with an aim to blow the world up?

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:42 pm

OsintTechnical: A pair of Russian government VIP jets (RA-96022, Il-96-300PU and RA-73025, A319-115(CJ)) are leaving Moscow Vnukovo International Airport, most likely evacuating to St. Petersburg Pulkovo Airport.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 07618?s=12

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:43 pm

dermotdermot wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:39 pm
Does anyone think that this could all go pear shaped with Putin retreating to his nuclear bunker with an aim to blow the world up?

He couldn't do that on his own I suspect, certainly not now

Make no mistake, a lot of Russians in positions of power (right down to platoon commanders I suspect) are making calculations on who wins, and trying to make sure that they aren't on the wrong side

There is no way that coloumn of wheeled vehicles with its tracked component on transporters isn't horribly vulnerable from the air, or one ambush, and it just isn't happening in enough strength to deter it

I can imagine that its being ordered, but commanders are taking it slow to see which way the tide turns

Its a crippling indictment of Russian armed forces btw and shows just how much damage the war has done to them (and of the way that Putin runs the country)

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:46 pm

Igor Sushko: Russian soldiers surrendered en masse to Wagner PMC in Voronezh.
Wagner now controls both Rostov (population 1.1 million) and Voronezh (also population 1.1 million). Wagner is now approaching Krasnodar (1 million) and Volgograd (950k) without any resistance.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... XbpxEsmRVg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:48 pm

Jon Sopel: What is unfolding is real pinch yourself territory

https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/167 ... XbpxEsmRVg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:51 pm

Sushko: One of the Wagner mercenaries reportedly attempted to assassinate Prigozhin. He failed and has been executed.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... XbpxEsmRVg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:52 pm

John Simpson: And in case you think things aren’t weird enough in Russia already, the Kremlin has just declared the World Wildlife Fund a hostile foreign agent.

https://twitter.com/johnsimpsonnews/sta ... XbpxEsmRVg

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:54 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:46 pm
Igor Sushko: Russian soldiers surrendered en masse to Wagner PMC in Voronezh.
Wagner now controls both Rostov (population 1.1 million) and Voronezh (also population 1.1 million). Wagner is now approaching Krasnodar (1 million) and Volgograd (950k) without any resistance.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... XbpxEsmRVg

I'd treat anything Sushko says with a huge amount of caution - there is no way that Wagner have the units to advance in three different directions and hold Rostov (which they have to, because that is astride the Russian army in Ukraine supply line, their big ace in the hole) and approach Moscow

This seems more accurate

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status ... 2877969411

To advance that far and that fast suggest a combination of a really well planned coup and very limited resistance

They will hit the Russian defences about 100km south of Moscow (such as they are) sometime this afternoon which is a lightning advance that puts Blitzkrieg to shame

And I have to be honest, I can't see those defences being able to stop T-90s, and there are certainly nothing like that anywhere near Moscow that Putin can call on

ecc · Post by **ecc** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:58 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:36 am
Google maps helpfully telling everyone that the M-4 (Voronezh-Moscow) is closed along most of its length

https://twitter.com/alistaircoleman/sta ... 8903482368

"If you’re hoping to drive from Voronezh to Moscow today in an attempt to topple the leaders of Russia’s armed forces..."

LOL.

"If you're hoping to drive from Blackburn to Burnley in an attempt to topple the leaders of The Championship there are road blocks on the M65".

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:59 pm

Its the speed of how things are happening that will be of concern to Ukraine btw

The longer this goes on, the more chance they have of Russian units pulling back

If its all over tonight, then its really back to square one (though you would assume that whoever takes over will need some time to consolidate their rule, and that might (and I stress might) mean some more realism over the war

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 2:01 pm

Not quite sure if the garrison sizes in the small cities like Rostov , Krasnador etc ? Though I’d imagine pretty small indeed and unable to resist ? Can Vlad actually spare a few divisions to stop this if it snowballs , doubtful I’d say.

The sheer free and true propaganda value of this whole thing is beyond belief . The UKR must be p1ssing themselves laughing

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 2:02 pm

OsintTechnical: Rostov, Wagner forces have both mined (TM-62 antitank) and placed roadblocks on the E-58 highway towards Taganrog.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... XbpxEsmRVg

Roosterbooster · Post by **Roosterbooster** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 2:03 pm

Volgograd and Krasnodar are in the opposite direction to Voronezh from Rostov

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 2:04 pm

OsintTechnical: Russian forces have reportedly started to dig fighting positions in Moscow Oblast

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... XbpxEsmRVg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 2:07 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:54 pm
I'd treat anything Sushko says with a huge amount of caution - there is no way that Wagner have the units to advance in three different directions and hold Rostov (which they have to, because that is astride the Russian army in Ukraine supply line, their big ace in the hole) and approach Moscow

This seems more accurate

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status ... 2877969411

To advance that far and that fast suggest a combination of a really well planned coup and very limited resistance

They will hit the Russian defences about 100km south of Moscow (such as they are) sometime this afternoon which is a lightning advance that puts Blitzkrieg to shame

And I have to be honest, I can't see those defences being able to stop T-90s, and there are certainly nothing like that anywhere near Moscow that Putin can call on

Possibly Lancs, just putting it up as I have not had anything from him in some time… at the start of the conflict he was all over it and a lot of what he was saying (in claims he had a friend in Russian intel) came to fruition. Even the usual rock solid sources are struggling with things happening so fast on the ground.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 2:10 pm

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 6476185602

Tremendous

Russian policeman tells the plan for blocking the M4 from Moscow

"take the keys and then get the **** out of here"

Bordeauxclaret · Post by **Bordeauxclaret** » Sat Jun 24, 2023 2:11 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Jun 24, 2023 1:59 pm
Its the speed of how things are happening that will be of concern to Ukraine btw

The longer this goes on, the more chance they have of Russian units pulling back

If its all over tonight, then its really back to square one (though you would assume that whoever takes over will need some time to consolidate their rule, and that might (and I stress might) mean some more realism over the war

You can’t see Putin being out by tonight can you??