Fofana discusses rift with Kompany

[warksclaret]

On which occasion was this?

Two or three to pick from.

You're not wrong there, but for me a very glaring miss when Assignon (I think), passed it across goal

[spt_claret]

No stats at hand but I'd take a guess that he has the best goal contributions per 90 out of any of our strikers this season. Whilst also doing the defensive side of the game better on top of that and being technically better.
The one thing he doesn't have his pace but that doesn't mean he can't be useful. Unfortunately Kompany disagrees.

He doesn't.
Stats are available on FBRef. This is a long post, fair warning now, we really need collapsible spoiler tags on this forum so this sort of thing can be condensed but I wanted to do a bit of a stat dive for anyone who may be interested.

For people unaware with what xG and xAG mean, explanation
xG = expected goals. Own chance quality essentially. High means you get lots of good scoring chances. Actual goals above xG means you score more than average/expected, score when people usually miss. Below xG means missing more than average ie poor finishing. Ideally, xG is high and actual goals even higher.
xAG= Expected assisted goals, or the quality of chances youve created for others, high means a player creates lots of good chances for teammates. Actual assists works the opposite to goals here- actual assists above xAG means players are converting the chances you've created better than you'd expect, so have good finishers around you. xAG below assists means others have let the team down on finishing but the player with high xAG has created more good chances than their actual assists suggests. Ideally both are high and about equal.

Jay Rodriguez:
Non penalty goals per 90: 0.11. Bottom 2% for strikers.
Non pen xG per 90: 0.30. 25th percentile.
xG is above goals meaning he's scored fewer than he should have for the chances he's had.

Assists per 90: 0.11. 47th percentile.
xAG per 90: 0.02. Bottom percentile.
He is the bottom percentile for chances created for teammates, his assists being above that suggests good finishing by teammates from his limited creation.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.33.
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.22
Total non penalty xG+xAG per 90: 0.32. 8th percentile. Undeperforms on total goals/assists vs expected.



The much maligned Zeki Amdouni (bearing in mind he's often played as a winger/CAM so further back)
Non pen goals/90: 0.19. 10th percentile for strikers.
xG per 90: 0.22. 5th percentile. Doesn't get as many good scoring chances as Jay and also underperforms his xG but underperforms less and still scores more per 90.
Assists/90: 0.05. 17th percentile. Below Jay.
xAG/90: 0.07. 19th percentile. Creates better and has been let down by teammates on his creativity.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.29.
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.24.
Total non penalty xG+xAG per 90: 0.28. 3rd percentile. Slight underperformance on total goals/assists vs expected.

Amdouni has been below Jay on assists per 90, and if you include penalties, on goal contributions per 90. Otherwise he beats him on everything despite being far from convincing


Lyle Foster:
Non pen goals/90: 0.25. 25th percentile. Best so far.
xG per 90: 0.22. 7th percentile. Doesn't get as many good scoring chances as Jay, same as Amdouni (but shows as higher percentile for some reason), but outperforms his xG ie good finisher.
Assists/90: 0.15. 62nd percentile. By far the best of our strikers.
xAG/90: 0.09. 33rd percentile. Similar to Jay has had good finishing result in a higher assists than his expected, but still has the best chance creation so far.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.40
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.40
Total xG+xAG per 90: 0.31. 8th percentile. Actually oveperforms on it, mix of a good finisher and teammates finishing his chances well


Fofana
Non pen goals/90: 0.31. 37th percentile. Best goals per 90 of anyone.
xG per 90: 0.42. 62nd percentile. Gets a lot of good scoring chances but underperforms his xG drastically ie. despite scoring lots, misses lots too, which we knew already.
Assists/90: 0.05. 19th percentile. Below Jay.
xAG/90: 0.13. 60th percentile. Best of all our forwards- he actually creates good opportunities and gets let down by his teammates.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.51.
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.51
Total xG+xAG per 90: 0..54. 63rd percentile. Highest overall but underperforms on it slightly- in his case both missing chances and teammates letting him down.

Jacob Brun Larsen, who lacks percentiles as he's exclusively grouped with midfielders on FBRef so his percentiles don't actually compare:
Non pen goals/90: 0.36. Best goals per 90 of anyone so far.
xG per 90: 0.31. Slightly better scoring chances than Jay, but outperforms his xG, good finisher.
Assists/90: 0. Not a great number, but regarding his chance creation:
xAG/90: 0.08. Inbetween Amdouni and Foster, not electric creativity, but suggests he ought to have an assist or two and has been let down by teammate finishing- works out at 1.07 expected assists for his matchtime played.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.45.
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.37.
Total xG+xAG per 90: 0.39. Marginally underperforms, when you break them down individually you see its that teammates let him down for chances he creates.



On pure, surface level goal contributions per 90, Foster beats Jay for both goals & assists individually as well as combined, and Larsen, Fofana & Amdouni all beat him for goals. Take out penalties, they all beat Jay for overall goal+assist combined contributions. Factor in more detailed analytics regarding finishing quality and chance creation, all 4 beat Jay on all measures in that all things considered equal, they've created better chances (which teammates spurned) and they've converted chances more reliably (even Fofana and Amdouni, who underperform their xG by 0.11 and 0.03, while Jay underperforms by 0.19).

On the eye test, the same is true. Jay might defend well and be solid in the air and a decent tackler, but offensively offers very very little. Jay doesn't look a shadow of the player he once was. In the past he was FAR better than any of the other 4. Miles above them. But he's not now, and these kinds of claim are proveably not correct.

I love Jay, but I don't think that playing him more would have saved our season, we tried a tactical change to 442 to accomodate him for a run of games when Foster was out, and for as much as people insisted our performances improved, results certainly didn't, it was the reversion to a more mobile 4231 with Muric/Cullen back in that actually lifted results.

[Goliath]

He doesn't.
Stats are available on FBRef. This is a long post, fair warning now, we really need collapsible spoiler tags on this forum so this sort of thing can be condensed but I wanted to do a bit of a stat dive for anyone who may be interested.

For people unaware with what xG and xAG mean, explanation
xG = expected goals. Own chance quality essentially. High means you get lots of good scoring chances. Actual goals above xG means you score more than average/expected, score when people usually miss. Below xG means missing more than average ie poor finishing. Ideally, xG is high and actual goals even higher.
xAG= Expected assisted goals, or the quality of chances youve created for others, high means a player creates lots of good chances for teammates. Actual assists works the opposite to goals here- actual assists above xAG means players are converting the chances you've created better than you'd expect, so have good finishers around you. xAG below assists means others have let the team down on finishing but the player with high xAG has created more good chances than their actual assists suggests. Ideally both are high and about equal.

Jay Rodriguez:
Non penalty goals per 90: 0.11. Bottom 2% for strikers.
Non pen xG per 90: 0.30. 25th percentile.
xG is above goals meaning he's scored fewer than he should have for the chances he's had.

Assists per 90: 0.11. 47th percentile.
xAG per 90: 0.02. Bottom percentile.
He is the bottom percentile for chances created for teammates, his assists being above that suggests good finishing by teammates from his limited creation.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.33.
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.22
Total non penalty xG+xAG per 90: 0.32. 8th percentile. Undeperforms on total goals/assists vs expected.



The much maligned Zeki Amdouni (bearing in mind he's often played as a winger/CAM so further back)
Non pen goals/90: 0.19. 10th percentile for strikers.
xG per 90: 0.22. 5th percentile. Doesn't get as many good scoring chances as Jay and also underperforms his xG but underperforms less and still scores more per 90.
Assists/90: 0.05. 17th percentile. Below Jay.
xAG/90: 0.07. 19th percentile. Creates better and has been let down by teammates on his creativity.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.29.
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.24.
Total non penalty xG+xAG per 90: 0.28. 3rd percentile. Slight underperformance on total goals/assists vs expected.

Amdouni has been below Jay on assists per 90, and if you include penalties, on goal contributions per 90. Otherwise he beats him on everything despite being far from convincing


Lyle Foster:
Non pen goals/90: 0.25. 25th percentile. Best so far.
xG per 90: 0.22. 7th percentile. Doesn't get as many good scoring chances as Jay, same as Amdouni (but shows as higher percentile for some reason), but outperforms his xG ie good finisher.
Assists/90: 0.15. 62nd percentile. By far the best of our strikers.
xAG/90: 0.09. 33rd percentile. Similar to Jay has had good finishing result in a higher assists than his expected, but still has the best chance creation so far.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.40
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.40
Total xG+xAG per 90: 0.31. 8th percentile. Actually oveperforms on it, mix of a good finisher and teammates finishing his chances well


Fofana
Non pen goals/90: 0.31. 37th percentile. Best goals per 90 of anyone.
xG per 90: 0.42. 62nd percentile. Gets a lot of good scoring chances but underperforms his xG drastically ie. despite scoring lots, misses lots too, which we knew already.
Assists/90: 0.05. 19th percentile. Below Jay.
xAG/90: 0.13. 60th percentile. Best of all our forwards- he actually creates good opportunities and gets let down by his teammates.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.51.
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.51
Total xG+xAG per 90: 0..54. 63rd percentile. Highest overall but underperforms on it slightly- in his case both missing chances and teammates letting him down.

Jacob Brun Larsen, who lacks percentiles as he's exclusively grouped with midfielders on FBRef so his percentiles don't actually compare:
Non pen goals/90: 0.36. Best goals per 90 of anyone so far.
xG per 90: 0.31. Slightly better scoring chances than Jay, but outperforms his xG, good finisher.
Assists/90: 0. Not a great number, but regarding his chance creation:
xAG/90: 0.08. Inbetween Amdouni and Foster, not electric creativity, but suggests he ought to have an assist or two and has been let down by teammate finishing- works out at 1.07 expected assists for his matchtime played.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.45.
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.37.
Total xG+xAG per 90: 0.39. Marginally underperforms, when you break them down individually you see its that teammates let him down for chances he creates.



On pure, surface level goal contributions per 90, Foster beats Jay for both goals & assists individually as well as combined, and Larsen, Fofana & Amdouni all beat him for goals. Take out penalties, they all beat Jay for overall goal+assist combined contributions. Factor in more detailed analytics regarding finishing quality and chance creation, all 4 beat Jay on all measures in that all things considered equal, they've created better chances (which teammates spurned) and they've converted chances more reliably (even Fofana and Amdouni, who underperform their xG by 0.11 and 0.03, while Jay underperforms by 0.19).

On the eye test, the same is true. Jay might defend well and be solid in the air and a decent tackler, but offensively offers very very little. Jay doesn't look a shadow of the player he once was. In the past he was FAR better than any of the other 4. Miles above them. But he's not now, and these kinds of claim are proveably not correct.

I love Jay, but I don't think that playing him more would have saved our season, we tried a tactical change to 442 to accomodate him for a run of games when Foster was out, and for as much as people insisted our performances improved, results certainly didn't, it was the reversion to a more mobile 4231 with Muric/Cullen back in that actually lifted results.

Thanks, I wasn't talking about xg/A tbf, just the factual stats based off starts not appearances. Substitute appearances are a nonsense in statistical comparisons because they are so dependent on context.
However from Rodriguez's very sporadic appearances he scored a brilliant goal at Bouremouth which was really unfortunate to be disallowed and got in brilliant positions to score v Wolves and Brighton which both needed very good saves (others argued poor finishes which I didn't particularly agree with). So the goal threat was still there.

Like I said in my post though he isn't a prolific goalscorer and never really has been he's just a thoroughly intelligent football which is harder to measure statistically.
An interesting one would be number of times Amdounis lost possession in his own half, I feel like he does that nearly every time he plays and in the PL it makes him basically unusable for us.
We've then got Fofana who is more like Jay but I'd suggest is a lot weaker with his back to goal so we were then stuck with a really unbalanced pairing of him and Foster or even worse having to shove Foster wide.

Also how are we measuring their work off the ball, if you watched the Brighton away game, Rodriguez was absolutely pivotal in stopping the ball getting into their midfield pivot both through pressing and positioning. If I remember rightly we then subbed him to go more defensive, lost that shape and they took complete control and we became totally reliant on Trafford/poor finishing.

There's also the fact that he's better at defending/attacking pieces (see Chelsea away, header against the bar) along with being a target from long balls which none of the others are. I don't think I've seen Fofana win a single header with his back to goal coming from a long ball and Foster hardly wins any either. If we had Rodriguez with Foster it allows Foster to focus on trying to unsettle defenders with his running whilst Rodriguez becomes the main target. Similar in that sense to the Barnes/Wood partnership.

We will never know now but personally I think Kompany missed a massive trick not playing a front 2 of Foster and Rodriguez. In fact I'm not sure he ever deployed them as a partnership from the start of a game.

[Enola Gay]

Fofana has "two-year loan in Türkiye" written all over him.

A couple of nice goals but far too often he didn't even look like a Premier League striker's cousin.

[ClaretCliff]

Runs like an old man & I very much doubt he is only 21..

Fofana has a very strange way of running. Reminds me of a string puppet.

[DCWat]

Should the thread title be amended to Fofana doesn’t discuss his rift with Kompany?

“There’s not much I have to say about our relegation. It’s football, there are ups but also downs, it can happen. We’ve got to get on with it. [...] I had a bright start to my Burnley career but then the manager made his decisions. I don’t wanna go into details.”

Literally no discussion whatsoever about a “rift”.

[dougcollins]

Runs like an old man & I very much doubt he is only 21..

Roger Milla!

[dermotdermot]

He doesn't.
Stats are available on FBRef. This is a long post, fair warning now, we really need collapsible spoiler tags on this forum so this sort of thing can be condensed but I wanted to do a bit of a stat dive for anyone who may be interested.

For people unaware with what xG and xAG mean, explanation
xG = expected goals. Own chance quality essentially. High means you get lots of good scoring chances. Actual goals above xG means you score more than average/expected, score when people usually miss. Below xG means missing more than average ie poor finishing. Ideally, xG is high and actual goals even higher.
xAG= Expected assisted goals, or the quality of chances youve created for others, high means a player creates lots of good chances for teammates. Actual assists works the opposite to goals here- actual assists above xAG means players are converting the chances you've created better than you'd expect, so have good finishers around you. xAG below assists means others have let the team down on finishing but the player with high xAG has created more good chances than their actual assists suggests. Ideally both are high and about equal.

Jay Rodriguez:
Non penalty goals per 90: 0.11. Bottom 2% for strikers.
Non pen xG per 90: 0.30. 25th percentile.
xG is above goals meaning he's scored fewer than he should have for the chances he's had.

Assists per 90: 0.11. 47th percentile.
xAG per 90: 0.02. Bottom percentile.
He is the bottom percentile for chances created for teammates, his assists being above that suggests good finishing by teammates from his limited creation.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.33.
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.22
Total non penalty xG+xAG per 90: 0.32. 8th percentile. Undeperforms on total goals/assists vs expected.



The much maligned Zeki Amdouni (bearing in mind he's often played as a winger/CAM so further back)
Non pen goals/90: 0.19. 10th percentile for strikers.
xG per 90: 0.22. 5th percentile. Doesn't get as many good scoring chances as Jay and also underperforms his xG but underperforms less and still scores more per 90.
Assists/90: 0.05. 17th percentile. Below Jay.
xAG/90: 0.07. 19th percentile. Creates better and has been let down by teammates on his creativity.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.29.
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.24.
Total non penalty xG+xAG per 90: 0.28. 3rd percentile. Slight underperformance on total goals/assists vs expected.

Amdouni has been below Jay on assists per 90, and if you include penalties, on goal contributions per 90. Otherwise he beats him on everything despite being far from convincing


Lyle Foster:
Non pen goals/90: 0.25. 25th percentile. Best so far.
xG per 90: 0.22. 7th percentile. Doesn't get as many good scoring chances as Jay, same as Amdouni (but shows as higher percentile for some reason), but outperforms his xG ie good finisher.
Assists/90: 0.15. 62nd percentile. By far the best of our strikers.
xAG/90: 0.09. 33rd percentile. Similar to Jay has had good finishing result in a higher assists than his expected, but still has the best chance creation so far.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.40
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.40
Total xG+xAG per 90: 0.31. 8th percentile. Actually oveperforms on it, mix of a good finisher and teammates finishing his chances well


Fofana
Non pen goals/90: 0.31. 37th percentile. Best goals per 90 of anyone.
xG per 90: 0.42. 62nd percentile. Gets a lot of good scoring chances but underperforms his xG drastically ie. despite scoring lots, misses lots too, which we knew already.
Assists/90: 0.05. 19th percentile. Below Jay.
xAG/90: 0.13. 60th percentile. Best of all our forwards- he actually creates good opportunities and gets let down by his teammates.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.51.
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.51
Total xG+xAG per 90: 0..54. 63rd percentile. Highest overall but underperforms on it slightly- in his case both missing chances and teammates letting him down.

Jacob Brun Larsen, who lacks percentiles as he's exclusively grouped with midfielders on FBRef so his percentiles don't actually compare:
Non pen goals/90: 0.36. Best goals per 90 of anyone so far.
xG per 90: 0.31. Slightly better scoring chances than Jay, but outperforms his xG, good finisher.
Assists/90: 0. Not a great number, but regarding his chance creation:
xAG/90: 0.08. Inbetween Amdouni and Foster, not electric creativity, but suggests he ought to have an assist or two and has been let down by teammate finishing- works out at 1.07 expected assists for his matchtime played.

Total goal contributions per 90: 0.45.
Total non-penalty goal contributions per 90: 0.37.
Total xG+xAG per 90: 0.39. Marginally underperforms, when you break them down individually you see its that teammates let him down for chances he creates.



On pure, surface level goal contributions per 90, Foster beats Jay for both goals & assists individually as well as combined, and Larsen, Fofana & Amdouni all beat him for goals. Take out penalties, they all beat Jay for overall goal+assist combined contributions. Factor in more detailed analytics regarding finishing quality and chance creation, all 4 beat Jay on all measures in that all things considered equal, they've created better chances (which teammates spurned) and they've converted chances more reliably (even Fofana and Amdouni, who underperform their xG by 0.11 and 0.03, while Jay underperforms by 0.19).

On the eye test, the same is true. Jay might defend well and be solid in the air and a decent tackler, but offensively offers very very little. Jay doesn't look a shadow of the player he once was. In the past he was FAR better than any of the other 4. Miles above them. But he's not now, and these kinds of claim are proveably not correct.

I love Jay, but I don't think that playing him more would have saved our season, we tried a tactical change to 442 to accomodate him for a run of games when Foster was out, and for as much as people insisted our performances improved, results certainly didn't, it was the reversion to a more mobile 4231 with Muric/Cullen back in that actually lifted results.

It’s just too long a post to get through.

[spt_claret]

It’s just too long a post to get through.

Fascinating that you felt the need to quote it just to say you didn't read it. What a cracking contribution to the board

[jlup1980]

Stats will tell you so much, your eyes tell you more.

Foster was outstanding for the first half a dozen games. It genuinely looked like we'd unearthed a gem. However, since his return from his mental health issues he's been diabolical (certainly 90% of the games he's played anyway). The way he's ambled around the pitch this last couple of months is unacceptable.

Fofana just isn't a footballer. He's not able to hold the ball, bring players into the game or really help much when you're back are against the wall. He can run and bit and is a bit of a nuisance. However, most of the time he just gets in the way.

Amdouni has more talent than anyone in the squad but his confidence dropped more and more as the season progressed. He should have been managed better by VK in order to take pressure off him. By the time he was dropped his head was completely gone.

Jay shouldn't be starting at this level. However, given the form, quality and confidence of our other options he should have been. That's a sad indictment of how the season has panned out. Jay is a clever footballer, he can hold the ball up and he brings experience. He also cares about the club. Had he started over the past few weeks we may not have survived, but he would have offered more than the others. We were effectively playing with 9 men in the games where we started Foster and Fofana together.

[Cooclaret]

VK stopped playing Jayrod I didn't see him winging

[spt_claret]

Stats will tell you so much, your eyes tell you more.

Foster was outstanding for the first half a dozen games. It genuinely looked like we'd unearthed a gem. However, since his return from his mental health issues he's been diabolical (certainly 90% of the games he's played anyway). The way he's ambled around the pitch this last couple of months is unacceptable.

Fofana just isn't a footballer. He's not able to hold the ball, bring players into the game or really help much when you're back are against the wall. He can run and bit and is a bit of a nuisance. However, most of the time he just gets in the way.

Amdouni has more talent than anyone in the squad but his confidence dropped more and more as the season progressed. He should have been managed better by VK in order to take pressure off him. By the time he was dropped his head was completely gone.

Jay shouldn't be starting at this level. However, given the form, quality and confidence of our other options he should have been. That's a sad indictment of how the season has panned out. Jay is a clever footballer, he can hold the ball up and he brings experience. He also cares about the club. Had he started over the past few weeks we may not have survived, but he would have offered more than the others. We were effectively playing with 9 men in the games where we started Foster and Fofana together.

I agree with both you and Goliath that stats aren't everything and that Jay has great footballing intelligence but the subject was about pure goal threat and contributions, something which can be quantified in terms of pure actual contributions and (loosely) predicted using probability statistics like xG. Jay hasn't offered much there, and his linkup and holdup play has not been especially great either (though he definitely offers more in our own half than Amdouni or Fofana). But I don't agree that playing him would have helped at the tail end. The bulk of our season we had huge problems with own half play, buildup, and possession in our half. Jay was picked to try help this and did slightly but at the expense of goal threat. Muric and Cullen returning helped this problem a lot more, as did Esteve arriving and O'Shea improving. It can be argued they didn't help it enough but for me playing Jay to do moreso would have massively hindered our goal threat. I agree Foster/Fofana didn't work largely as Foster got moved out of position off the ball.
I know Vitinho has his limits but he's a clever player who I think at times helped with attacking transitions as a winger. I think Benson warranted more time for his ball carrying and ranged threat. Brownhill knitted us better together in that central role than Odobert or Foster playing deeper. JBG was highly creative for us and offered the nous and support play. I think there's a strong strong case to have played Brownhill or JBG in the advanced midfield rather than Odobert and not played both Foster and Fofana, moving Odobert back wide left (because he didn't cover defensively enough for either Vitinho or Assignon) and Larsen right. I've championed JBG in that role since he was tried in cm last year, eyes and stats back it IMO.
Jay, love the guy, neither eyes nor stats tell me he'd have been an improvement, think he'd have added in some areas but subtracted in areas especially in the one we needed most- goal threat.

[aggi]

Stats will tell you so much, your eyes tell you more.

Foster was outstanding for the first half a dozen games. It genuinely looked like we'd unearthed a gem. However, since his return from his mental health issues he's been diabolical (certainly 90% of the games he's played anyway). The way he's ambled around the pitch this last couple of months is unacceptable.

Fofana just isn't a footballer. He's not able to hold the ball, bring players into the game or really help much when you're back are against the wall. He can run and bit and is a bit of a nuisance. However, most of the time he just gets in the way.

Amdouni has more talent than anyone in the squad but his confidence dropped more and more as the season progressed. He should have been managed better by VK in order to take pressure off him. By the time he was dropped his head was completely gone.

Jay shouldn't be starting at this level. However, given the form, quality and confidence of our other options he should have been. That's a sad indictment of how the season has panned out. Jay is a clever footballer, he can hold the ball up and he brings experience. He also cares about the club. Had he started over the past few weeks we may not have survived, but he would have offered more than the others. We were effectively playing with 9 men in the games where we started Foster and Fofana together.

I'm not so sure whether this is more down to his return from whatever surgery he had. He looks like he's been rushed back and isn't fully fit.

[warksclaret]

Fascinating that you felt the need to quote it just to say you didn't read it. What a cracking contribution to the board

I have to say SPT-CLARET, I am now a lot wiser for you explaining the formulas. Heard reference to them many times but now I have an understanding-so thanks for that

[jlup1980]

I'm not so sure whether this is more down to his return from whatever surgery he had. He looks like he's been rushed back and isn't fully fit.

Whatever the reason, Foster hasn't shown enough to start games since he returned. I think VK has been desperately trying to play him back into form, but his performances have got worse and worse. He's either not fit, or he's still suffering mentally (he looked that way vs Newcastle). Either way he should have been left out for his own good, whether that's for Jay, Fofana or Amdouni.

[jlup1980]

I agree with both you and Goliath that stats aren't everything and that Jay has great footballing intelligence but the subject was about pure goal threat and contributions, something which can be quantified in terms of pure actual contributions and (loosely) predicted using probability statistics like xG. Jay hasn't offered much there, and his linkup and holdup play has not been especially great either (though he definitely offers more in our own half than Amdouni or Fofana). But I don't agree that playing him would have helped at the tail end. The bulk of our season we had huge problems with own half play, buildup, and possession in our half. Jay was picked to try help this and did slightly but at the expense of goal threat. Muric and Cullen returning helped this problem a lot more, as did Esteve arriving and O'Shea improving. It can be argued they didn't help it enough but for me playing Jay to do moreso would have massively hindered our goal threat. I agree Foster/Fofana didn't work largely as Foster got moved out of position off the ball.
I know Vitinho has his limits but he's a clever player who I think at times helped with attacking transitions as a winger. I think Benson warranted more time for his ball carrying and ranged threat. Brownhill knitted us better together in that central role than Odobert or Foster playing deeper. JBG was highly creative for us and offered the nous and support play. I think there's a strong strong case to have played Brownhill or JBG in the advanced midfield rather than Odobert and not played both Foster and Fofana, moving Odobert back wide left (because he didn't cover defensively enough for either Vitinho or Assignon) and Larsen right. I've championed JBG in that role since he was tried in cm last year, eyes and stats back it IMO.
Jay, love the guy, neither eyes nor stats tell me he'd have been an improvement, think he'd have added in some areas but subtracted in areas especially in the one we needed most- goal threat.

I understand what you're saying but surely having someone who can hold the ball and help us get up the pitch will ultimately help us create more chances? He certainly couldn't offer less than others have this season!! Ultimately our striker options haven't been anywhere near PL standard and that's the problem.

[Middle-agedClaret]

It’s just too long a post to get through.

I managed it, and I have the attention span of a goldfish.
Very interesting post.

[boatshed bill]

I understand what you're saying but surely having someone who can hold the ball and help us get up the pitch will ultimately help us create more chances? He certainly couldn't offer less than others have this season!! Ultimately our striker options haven't been anywhere near PL standard and that's the problem.

Particularly as we needed to score 2 to have a chance of winning.

[Goliath]

I understand what you're saying but surely having someone who can hold the ball and help us get up the pitch will ultimately help us create more chances? He certainly couldn't offer less than others have this season!! Ultimately our striker options haven't been anywhere near PL standard and that's the problem.

Exactly. We need a platform to play from when we can't play out from the back. How can we use stats to say whether we'd have made less mistakes directly leading to goals if Jay was playing?
We just haven't had that direct option so have to continuously play out even when it's not working. It's not about goal threat. That's Fosters primary job, the 2nd striker just needs to chip in.
I'm also not convinced by these xg stats being quoted. Jay has had big chances in most games he's started, and usually hits the target. 2 offside goals, woodwork v Chelsea and 2 good saves away at Brighton and Sheff Utd. On top of the 2 goals he scored. I think he's looked more likely to score goals than Amdouni personally.

[spt_claret]

I understand what you're saying but surely having someone who can hold the ball and help us get up the pitch will ultimately help us create more chances? He certainly couldn't offer less than others have this season!! Ultimately our striker options haven't been anywhere near PL standard and that's the problem.

Not as straightforward as that. Jay's holdup play was better than Amdouni or Fofana sure but still not superb, and he'd have to play as the central striker in a 4231 or in a 442 pair. 442 pair didn't get as good results as reverting to last year's system with Muric & Cullen, Berge/Cullen as a midfield 2 would be too exposed as neither could drop deep as easily to receive the keeper ball as in 4231. So if we're playing Jay in a 4231 that means playing Foster out of position when again, he's best as a goal threat in that top position- Jay can't play deeper, so even if he's bridging the gap with his support play he's still taking away the goal threat at the end and forcing other players to move to accomodate. And even if Jay's holdup is better than some I don't think it'd have been good enough to make up for that by bringing others into play, Barnes' was in the Championship but Barnes was better than Jay at that side of the game anyway.

If Jay plays in a 4231 we're playing Foster in the central or wide role and throwing that midfield 3 off. I know we did that anyway to accomodate Fofana but that was a problem, and we did it with Fofana because Kompany judged that Fofana gave us a better goal threat, which compared to Jay is correct even if Fofana missed a few howlers. Accomodating Jay AND Foster in 4231 means playing one of them in the midfield, which again, why do that rather than just play JBG or Brownhill in that central role, or move Larsen central and play any of JBG/Benson/Vitinho on the flank. I'm not arguing for Fofana's inclusion I'm arguing for playing Foster up top and a different midfield attacking 3 arrangement, with the subs focused on that midfield 3.
I don't think Fofana/Foster worked, Amdouni/Foster was also hit miss and disappointing, but we tried accomodating Jay for a period with the switch to 442 and that didn't work either, and in 4231 he's competing with Foster for the same spot which Foster is better at in this system. And I don't think 442 with Jay/Foster would have worked either- we were getting massively overran in possession with 442, we didn't really have better results, the improvement upon restoring last year's system in midfield was noticeable.

It's equivalent to saying "Why didn't we just re-sign and play Chris Wood if we needed a goal threat". I've praised Wood often, he was a great goalscorer for us, but he can't just swap into this setup and be expected to do the same.

[spt_claret]

Exactly. We need a platform to play from when we can't play out from the back. How can we use stats to say whether we'd have made less mistakes directly leading to goals if Jay was playing?
We just haven't had that direct option so have to continuously play out even when it's not working. It's not about goal threat. That's Fosters primary job, the 2nd striker just needs to chip in.
I'm also not convinced by these xg stats being quoted. Jay has had big chances in most games he's started, and usually hits the target. 2 offside goals, woodwork v Chelsea and 2 good saves away at Brighton and Sheff Utd. On top of the 2 goals he scored. I think he's looked more likely to score goals than Amdouni personally.

It literally doesn't matter if you don't trust the xG being quoted, it's based on thousands upon thousands of calculations, it's a measure of average likelihood to score from a chance. He scored fewer goals than Amdouni, fewer goals per minute than Amdouni, and from better scoring chances than Amdouni, on what basis does that make him in any way more likely to score?

Kompany overthought things several times this season but this all feels like such an over-accomodation because people love Jay. And I love him too but this is stretching things.

[zippybid]

It literally doesn't matter if you don't trust the xG being quoted, it's based on thousands upon thousands of calculations, it's a measure of average likelihood to score from a chance. He scored fewer goals than Amdouni, fewer goals per minute than Amdouni, and from better scoring chances than Amdouni, on what basis does that make him in any way more likely to score?

Kompany overthought things several times this season but this all feels like such an over-accomodation because people love Jay. And I love him too but this is stretching things.

I'm often surprised at the number of people who either don't understand xG, don't believe it, or both. The only surprising thing is that I'm surprised and I shouldn't be.

You of course get players who are overachieving on the raw xG but then this is where normalisation normally kicks in.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Been saying all season our problem isn’t goals conceded, nor is it points lost from winning positions (all lower teams have a lot of them and we are not outliers).

The problem has been goal threat / creativity, which also translates into points gained from losing positions (worst in the league).

That is clearly the reason he bought all those wingers, he knew it, but couldn’t solve it.

The xG and xA stats discussed above tell a good story, as do other stats about chances created (saw one this morning from The Other 14 on X and we are the only team without a player on the list of top 30 or so, The Other 14 leave out the big 6, thats their reason for existing on Twitter, to talk about the rest of us).

The above issues also highlight for me the folly of leaving out players like Tresor and Gudmundsson (assist kings historically). Maybe one would be not dynamic enough for England, maybe one is too old, but our creative weaknesses were so stark all through the season it had to be worth a go or the outcome was, and has proven to be, inevitable.

Too many players who are runners selected and not enough who are creative thinkers.

[spt_claret]

I'm often surprised at the number of people who either don't understand xG, don't believe it, or both. The only surprising thing is that I'm surprised and I shouldn't be.

You of course get players who are overachieving on the raw xG but then this is where normalisation normally kicks in.

It's not a perfect measure and there's definitely people who overvalue it as a single source of truth but it's a very useful index.

Attacker with high xG = player who gets lots of good scoring chances for whatever reason (whether they find good space, get set up by teammates a lot as the main goal target, whatever)

Attacker with goals > xG = player who scores more often than you would expect given the chances they have. This can mean they score a lot of wonder goals from long range or can mean good finishing. Benson last year is an example of an overperformance outlier as most of his goals were from range so had very low xG. A player who takes a shot a match from distance and flukes one or two a season will outperform their xG, so it goes a bit wonky at range, it's an aggregated probability measure so still generally normalises but needs to be understood in context. It's better for measurements of good chances/shots in the box.

Attacker with goals < xG = player who scores less than you'd expect given their chances. This could mean they've by fluke only had good chances against top keepers but again it normalises across all players.

As more time passes and more xG data accrues, both for players in a season and general historical data available, it will become a more useful indicator because the dataset its working with for probability is bigger and thus more reliable. It will never be a perfect abstract measure like some people try to use it but it's a good indicator and very good when you place it in context- it's probably better for comparing players in the same team than in different teams because there's fewer unaccountable differences and confounding variables.

Not every aspect of a player's skills can be quantified like Football Manager but that doesn't mean stats are meaningless or untrustworthy.

[Big Vinny K]

As per most statistics certain ones taken in isolation can be pretty meaningless and there will also be invariably exceptions and outliers.

Dyche when Everton were on that long winless run often referenced the teams strong xG statistics in the context of keep making those good chances and eventually things should change. He was proved correct here and generally if a team makes a lot of very good goal opportunities there is a good chance that at some point these will go in.

But where you end up in the league is down to many more statistics and that includes the xG chances you concede because you cannot believe that your form will change if you make good chances and also believe that you will continue to keep these chances out by great defending indefinitely.

One of our biggest issue this year is the amount of big chances we give to the opposition. Plus when you are playing against some of the best players in the world most weeks then “worldies” are just more common place and this is where making sure certain players are not given time and space on the edge of the box (easier said than done)

[jlup1980]

So if we're playing Jay in a 4231 that means playing Foster out of position

You assume that I would have played Foster, but I wouldn't. His stats are skewed due to his early season promise.

Aug-Dec - 11 apps, 4 goals, 3 assists.
Jan-May - 12 apps, 1 goal, 0 assists.

It doesn't take xG to tell me his form has dropped off a cliff and he shouldn't be starting currently. His sole contribution since January is a goal at Sheff Utd. That's it. As I've stated earlier, something isn't right with him and he should have been taken out of the team for his own good.

VK has been trying to play football from the GK to the striker, but started Foster and Fofana to the detriment of his plan. I can't understand why he never even considered Amdouni behind Jay. They're both intelligent footballers and would be capable of bringing others into the game. You can start JBL and Odobert on the wings and you suddenly have a front 4 who are all comfortable on the ball. I can't help but think that could have complemented the style VK was trying to achieve.

Muric
Assignon O'Shea Esteve Taylor
Cullen Berge
JBL Amdouni Odobert
Jay

[spt_claret]

You assume that I would have played Foster, but I wouldn't. His stats are skewed due to his early season promise.

Aug-Dec - 11 apps, 4 goals, 3 assists.
Jan-May - 12 apps, 1 goal, 0 assists.

It doesn't take xG to tell me his form has dropped off a cliff and he shouldn't be starting currently. His sole contribution since January is a goal at Sheff Utd. That's it. As I've stated earlier, something isn't right with him and he should have been taken out of the team for his own good.

VK has been trying to play football from the GK to the striker, but started Foster and Fofana to the detriment of his plan. I can't understand why he never even considered Amdouni behind Jay. They're both intelligent footballers and would be capable of bringing others into the game. You can start JBL and Odobert on the wings and you suddenly have a front 4 who are all comfortable on the ball. I can't help but think that could have complemented the style VK was trying to achieve.

Muric
Assignon O'Shea Esteve Taylor
Cullen Berge
JBL Amdouni Odobert
Jay

I think that team gets hammered in honesty. Amdouni/Jay didn't work so well when they did play together, I don't know that Amdouni behind Jay works as I'm not sure Jay's holdup is actually good enough anymore to bring Amdouni into play better or offset the loss of goal threat, and it means having 2 players who provide very little support/pressing/defensive contribution in Odobert and Amdouni. We're simultaneously low-mobility in the central striker, low goal threat from the central striker, and incredibly frail in midfield with that lineup.

Foster's form dropped off I'll obviously agree but there's no way I'd field that, just don't see it working. I'd sooner play Amdouni as the forward in 4231 with a more orthodox CAM behind him feeding through balls for him to run onto, and I'm not sure that's his best fit either.

If we wanted a player to do what you're suggesting with Jay, the obvious choice was the guy we loaned out, Weghorst. That sort of link play was his entire game at United.

[Goliath]

I'm often surprised at the number of people who either don't understand xG, don't believe it, or both. The only surprising thing is that I'm surprised and I shouldn't be.

You of course get players who are overachieving on the raw xG but then this is where normalisation normally kicks in.

The arrogance is ridiculous. Just because people don't agree with how it's being used doesn't mean they don't understand it. It's patronising to suggest otherwise.

I fully appreciate what the stats say about xg. But firstly as I said that's not what his main role is so it already loses importance there. Secondly, the sample size is way to small in Rodriguez's case for it to be relevant. It also isn't taking to account context, ie who we are playing, how we are plating etc etc.

In regards to context there is also a point to be made about confidence and rhythm. Amdouni had huge runs of starts throughout the seaspn, he was given every opportunity to succeed and failed. Rodriguez was given no such opportunity to find rhythm and confidence.

In this situation xg is as close to irrelevant as a statistic can be.

[Goliath]

I think that team gets hammered in honesty. Amdouni/Jay didn't work so well when they did play together, I don't know that Amdouni behind Jay works as I'm not sure Jay's holdup is actually good enough anymore to bring Amdouni into play better or offset the loss of goal threat, and it means having 2 players who provide very little support/pressing/defensive contribution in Odobert and Amdouni. We're simultaneously low-mobility in the central striker, low goal threat from the central striker, and incredibly frail in midfield with that lineup.

Foster's form dropped off I'll obviously agree but there's no way I'd field that, just don't see it working. I'd sooner play Amdouni as the forward in 4231 with a more orthodox CAM behind him feeding through balls for him to run onto, and I'm not sure that's his best fit either.

If we wanted a player to do what you're suggesting with Jay, the obvious choice was the guy we loaned out, Weghorst. That sort of link play was his entire game at United.

It's Amdouni's job to bring himself into the game not Jay's or Fosters or anyone else's. Unfortunately when he tried to do this he tends to give the ball away I'm horrific areas which is just not acceptable at this level.
He's like a very poor version of Danny Ings at his peak, the difference being Ings was brilliant at looking after the ball, getting into goal scoring positions and taking his chances. Amdouni has been poor at all of those things.

[CrosspoolClarets]

I was upset when we lost Weghorst again. I thought he would compliment a quick striker and two quick wingers very nicely. Nonidea if he insisted on going (his loan clause presumably not active after we went back up) but it wouldn’t surprise me if VK didn’t want him, for age, personality, pace and squad harmony reasons. An error for me, we needed leaders to kick some arses at times.

[jlup1980]

I think that team gets hammered in honesty. Amdouni/Jay didn't work so well when they did play together, I don't know that Amdouni behind Jay works as I'm not sure Jay's holdup is actually good enough anymore to bring Amdouni into play better or offset the loss of goal threat, and it means having 2 players who provide very little support/pressing/defensive contribution in Odobert and Amdouni. We're simultaneously low-mobility in the central striker, low goal threat from the central striker, and incredibly frail in midfield with that lineup.

Foster's form dropped off I'll obviously agree but there's no way I'd field that, just don't see it working. I'd sooner play Amdouni as the forward in 4231 with a more orthodox CAM behind him feeding through balls for him to run onto, and I'm not sure that's his best fit either.

If we wanted a player to do what you're suggesting with Jay, the obvious choice was the guy we loaned out, Weghorst. That sort of link play was his entire game at United.

I said at the start of the season we were a bit eager to ship Weghorst out. This was likely at the players request more than anything, but he would have added a dimension to the team we haven't had.

Going back to my original post, I did say that we shouldn't be starting Jay at this level anymore. He's a spent force. However, other factors pushed towards him being an option. The front four I mentioned on my last post may not have worked, but would it have been dramatically worse than we already had on the pitch - debatable!

It's all hypothetical anyway, but I'm just not convinced VK tried every option at his disposal. As much as we've berated Tresor this season, he's not had a run of 5 or 6 games to get a feel for the league, same with Redmond, Benson, Zaroury and, too a lesser extent, JBG. Since dropping Brownhill and Amdouni, It's basically been four from Foster, Fofana, JBL, Odobert and Vitinho every week. Nobody else has had a look in, which begs a question about the size of our squad and the number of attacking players signed last summer.

[spt_claret]

It's Amdouni's job to bring himself into the game not Jay's or Fosters or anyone else's. Unfortunately when he tried to do this he tends to give the ball away I'm horrific areas which is just not acceptable at this level.
He's like a very poor version of Danny Ings at his peak, the difference being Ings was brilliant at looking after the ball, getting into goal scoring positions and taking his chances. Amdouni has been poor at all of those things.

Earlier you said how Jay is the most reliable/best goal contributions per min player we have. When that's disproven you rely on disallowed goals and missed/saved chances, which aren't even goals. Then the argument by jlup is Jay provides creative support and link play, which is what I was addressing by saying "bringing Amdouni into play". Now that's not his role. Starts to feel like his role is "be Jay Rodriguez".
He's had one good half season in the past 4 years. Baffling that he's even being offered a deal and you can't even seem to stick to what his actual contribution to the team would be. It's like wanting to still play Payton because hes a local hero. Time catches up with everyone it caught up with Jay years ago and I honestly don't see how we can't find an equal or better player who's younger and for equivalent wages. Club hero yes, but we need to move on and as much as other other forwards have been lacking he doesn't offer more unless you start applying all kinds of exceptions and accomodations for his missed chances, that you don't accommodate others for.

[Goliath]

Earlier you said how Jay is the most reliable/best goal contributions per min player we have. When that's disproven you rely on disallowed goals and missed/saved chances, which aren't even goals. Then the argument by jlup is Jay provides creative support and link play, which is what I was addressing by saying "bringing Amdouni into play". Now that's not his role. Starts to feel like his role is "be Jay Rodriguez".
He's had one good half season in the past 4 years. Baffling that he's even being offered a deal and you can't even seem to stick to what his actual contribution to the team would be. It's like wanting to still play Payton because hes a local hero. Time catches up with everyone it caught up with Jay years ago and I honestly don't see how we can't find an equal or better player who's younger and for equivalent wages. Club hero yes, but we need to move on and as much as other other forwards have been lacking he doesn't offer more unless you start applying all kinds of exceptions and accomodations for his missed chances, that you don't accommodate others for.

Ah yes Amdouni was great again today. As always Jay came on and showed for the ball and when it came into he had the strength o get a hold of it up against a centre back. He also instructed the rest of the attacking options when to press because to put politely, they don't have a clue what they are doing in that sense.
Amdouni just pulls off to the wings because he is scared to receive the ball centrally. He lacks the awareness and strength required to do it so he has to pull wider into unthreatening positions so he can see everything infront of him.
He is an absolute fraud and needs removing from our football club ASAP.