Burnley General Election Prediction Competition ...

[Clarets4me]

PLEASE LIMIT COMMENTS TO THE SUBJECT AND NOT YOUR POLITICAL OPINION

With the permission of the " mods ", I will be running my 3rd Burnley Constituency General Election prediction competition again this year. The two previous winners were " Fatboy47 " ( 2017 ) and " IanMcL " ( 2019 ). To newcomers, you predict the vote share between the Candidates ie: Labour 45.1%, Conservative 23.2% and so on with your total being 100%. If you predict Lab 45.1%, and they get 39.6%, you score 5.5 points, and so on for all the Candidates being the difference between forecast and fact ! Your total margins of error are added up and the lowest score wins ! The prize is £25, to be donated to a charity of your choice. Entry is FREE !!

The list for nominations closed at 4pm today, and it's a crowded field .... Please note that there are 3 " Independent " Candidates, which for the ease of everyone, I will be totalling together. The Candidates are ....

Gordon Birtwistle ( Liberal Democrat )
Mitchell Cryer ( Independent )
Rayyan Fiass ( Independent )
Antony Higginbotham ( Conservative & Unionist )
Jack Launer ( Green )
Nathan McCollom ( Reform UK )
David Roper ( Independent )
Oliver Ryan ( Labour )

To clarify, a typical entry would look like this ... with the numbers adding up to 100 !

Labour ( 37.5 )
Con ( 23.5 )
Reform ( 13 )
Lib Dem ( 12.5 )
Green ( 8.5 )
Ind ( 5 )

Good Luck everyone ....

[Clovius Boofus]

Labour ( 33.5 )
Con ( 21.5 )
Reform ( 15 )
Lib Dem ( 10.5 )
Green ( 7.5 )
Ind ( 12 )

[bfcjg]

Labour 45%
Cons 19 %
Reform 14%
Lib dems 12 %
Independent 7%
Greens 3%

[CrosspoolClarets]

Labour 35%
Reform 25%
Conservatives 15%
Lib Dems 15%
Independent 6%
Greens 4%

Think you need a deadline on this, things swing around and the fun is getting the prediction in early, will all be obvious by polling day.

[Clarets4me]

Labour 35%
Reform 25%
Conservatives 15%
Lib Dems 15%
Independent 6%
Greens 4%

Think you need a deadline on this, things swing around and the fun is getting the prediction in early, all will be obvious by polling day.

Great point, I've closed the last two polls at 10pm, on the eve of the Election, exactly 24 hours before the combined exit poll is broadcast by BBC/ITV/SKY ... I'll also have to " bump " the thread on occasion, as most entries tend to come in the last 7 days ...

[Rowls]

Labour ( 50.21 )
Con ( 20 )
Reform ( 13.85 )
Lib Dem ( 11.31 )
Green ( 2.09 )
Ind ( 2.55 )

[Clarets4me]

Labour ( 50.21 )
Con ( 20 )
Reform ( 13.85 )
Lib Dem ( 11.31 )
Green ( 2.09 )
Ind ( 2.55 )

Very precise there, " Rowls ", some inside information, I presume ?

[fatboy47]

Labour 42%
Reform 23%
Tory 17%
LibDem 9%
Green 6%
Ind 3%

[HahaYeah]

Labour ( 60 )
Reform ( 22 )
Lib Dem ( 8 )
Con ( 6 )
Green ( 2 )
Ind ( 2 )

[helmclaret]

Labour 60
Con 20
Reform 10
Lib Dem 5
Green 3
Ind 2

[beeholeclaret]

Labour ( 52)
Con ( 24)
Lib Dem ( 11)
Reform (7)
Green (3)
Ind ( 3)

[Croydon Claret]

Labour 58
Con 12
Reform 10
Lib Dem 15
Green 2
Ind 3

[Stockbrokerbelt]

Lab 99.9%
Con 0%
Reform 0%
Lib Dem 0%
Green 0%
Count Bin Face 0.1%

[elwaclaret]

Labour 45%
Cons 21%
Lib Dem 16%
Green 9%
Reform 7%
Ind 2%

[Whitgord]

Labour 42%
Conservatives 30%
Reform 18%
LibDem 5%
Green 4%
Ind 1%

[sleeperclaret]

Labour 53%
Conservatives 14%
Reform 19%
LibDem 8%
Green 2%
Ind 4%

[AGENT_CLARET]

Labour 41.9%
Reform 17.8
Conservatives 12.4%
Liberal Democrats 14.6
Greens 8.1%
Independent 5.2%

[morninbob]

Labour 30
Reform 25
Tories 15
Lib Dems 12
Green 10
Independent 8

[ISpeds00]

Labour ( 50.12 )
Conservatives ( 20 )
Reform ( 13.78 )
Lib Dem ( 11.29 )
Green ( 2.11 )
Independents ( 2.60 )

[Clarets4me]

My own forecast, but like a child at his own birthday party, I'm not allowed to win ...

Labour 29.5
Independent 22.5
Conservative 20.2
Reform UK 14.1
Lib/Dem 11.8
Green 1.9

[Rowls]

Labour ( 50.12 )
Conservatives ( 20 )
Reform ( 13.78 )
Lib Dem ( 11.29 )
Green ( 2.11 )
Independents ( 2.60 )

Honoured. You're welcome.

[Jamesy]

How long has Oliver Ryan lived in Burnley? Just asking as I suspect he only moved in recently.

[Tw@]

Count bin face to win it for me by a landslide

[Tw@]

How long has Oliver Ryan lived in Burnley? Just asking as I suspect he only moved in recently.

Another Labour stooge to be filed with the likes of Kitty Usher, but unfortunately he will probably win due to the situation with the current Conservative leadership being a complete sh!t show.
Antony Higginbottam has actually been a good MP for the town in my eyes and it’s a shame he will lose his seat due to the incompetence of the party he represents!

[Gibbo]

Have you missed out Tsss Hussain (George Galloways party), if so likely to eat into the Labour vote.

[Jamesy]

Another Labour stooge to be filed with the likes of Kitty Usher, but unfortunately he will probably win due to the situation with the current Conservative leadership being a complete sh!t show.
Antony Higginbottam has actually been a good MP for the town in my eyes and it’s a shame he will lose his seat due to the incompetence of the party he represents!

Sadly that is how it is. People say you are voting for your local candidate but in reality you are thinking as you vote what party you want to be in power.
I know in the past Burnley has had Labour MP’s not from the town like Dan Jones and Peter Pike who became established people in the town and well respected. However, it would be good if Labour could actually field a candidate from Burnley, not Ashton Under Lyne or wherever he is from in Greater Manchester. And then he probably wheels out the usual platitudes like I’m working class, one parent family blah blah blah.
And you are right, a decent guy will probably lose his seat to someone with no affinity to the town because of the sh1t show that the current Conservative Party are.

[GetIntoEm]

Hamas 50
Conservative 20
Quasi right wing 10
Rest will make up the numbers

[Clarets4me]

Have you missed out Tass Hussain (George Galloways party), if so likely to eat into the Labour vote.

In the event, Tass Hussain did not enter the contest, although he was named on the " Worker's Party " website, as their Prospective Parliamentary Candidate .. The Worker's Party posted this on their web-site on 6th June ...

" Having listed a number of pre-approved candidates, the Workers Party has engaged with Independents and other groups who made representations to us. We have successfully resolved a large number of contested seats and considered numerous submissions from non-party Independents. After the deadline passes today we will post here a consolidated list of those Workers Party candidates who successfully submitted their papers."

[Clarets4me]

Can I just stress that posters should limit their posts to their predictions, rather than extolling their Political views.
It's just a bit of fun, with a £25 prize donated by myself to benefit the winners chosen charity, I wouldn't want to see the thread deleted because of inappropriate comments ! Thank you !


MOD: All, please refrain from political views, otherwise the thread will be removed.

[Tw@]

Ok comrade Clarets4me, all members please conform otherwise you will be shot at dawn! Once shot your views will be reviewed within the next seven days.

[Clovius Boofus]

Please count me out of this game and delete my predictions. It's a shame that fully grown adults can't understand a simple request from the OP.

[Jamesy]

Can I just stress that posters should limit their posts to their predictions, rather than extolling their Political views.
It's just a bit of fun, with a £25 prize donated by myself to benefit the winners chosen charity, I wouldn't want to see the thread deleted because of inappropriate comments ! Thank you !


MOD: All, please refrain from political views, otherwise the thread will be removed.

Sorry for going off topic.

[bfcjg]

Please keep on topic, Kompany went well off topic last season and it never ends well.

[Jamesy]

Labour 32.0
Reform 23.0
Con. 21.0
Lib Dem. 14.0
Green 6.0
Ind. 4.0

[Poulton-le-Claret]

Lab 42
Con 16
Reform 22
Lib Dem 10
Green 6
Ind 4

[ISpeds00]

Honoured. You're welcome.

Haven't a clue about politics

[fatboy47]

Haven't a clue about politics

Then you came the right place

[bfcmik]

Lab 48
Con 16
Reform 19
Lib Dem 10
Green 6
Ind 1

[bfcmik]

Where I live it will be: Con 30; LD 23; Lab 18; Reform 25; Others 4

One of the safest Tory seats - but will see a big swing to the right!

[claretonthecoast1882]

Lab 47%
Ref 26%
Con 12%
Lib Dem 7%
Green 4%
Ind 4%

[Foshiznik]

Labour (47)
Con (24.5)
Reform (18)
Lib Dem (2.5)
Green (3)
Ind (5)

[bfcjg]

As it is permitted for politicians to change their minds, could we have a second guess bearing in mind the events of DDay etc ?

[LeadBelly]

I'm not local so difficult to gauge the prevailing feeling especially without seeing pamphlets etc., but...

Labour 43.8
Reform 19.8
Lib Dems 16.3
Conservatives 14.4
Greens 3.0
Independents 2.7

[COBBLE]

Labour 32.9
Reform 25.1
Conservative 16.5
Lib Dem 14.5
Green 7
Ind 4

So much depends on how Reform perform.

[COBBLE]

Just read an article in the Guardian which says that Muslim community leaders in Burnley have endorsed Gordon Birtwistle. The article says 11,000 votes potentially involved.

[Gibbo]

Reform 31
Labour 29
Lib Dems 28
Tories 8
Greens 3
Ind 1

[Clarets4me]

Entries for this Competition will close at 10pm, on 3rd July, the day before the election. If you've already made a prediction and wish to change it, feel free to submit an amended entry, I will use your most recent one.

Again, posters should limit their posts to their predictions, rather than extolling their Political views.
It's just a bit of fun, with a £25 prize donated by myself to benefit the winners chosen charity, I wouldn't want to see the thread deleted because of " political "comments ! Thank you !

[Smidge]

Labour 33.8
Liberal 22.5
Con. 20.1
Reform. 17.5
Ind. 3.9
Green. 2.2

[Tribesmen]

Labour ( 48.8 )
Conservatives ( 21.4 )
Reform ( 12.8 )
Lib Dem ( 8.7 )
Green ( 5.1 )
Independents ( 3.2 )

I don't have a Scobby Doo about British politics so just a shot in the dark for me .

[Owdsyker]

Another Labour stooge to be filed with the likes of Kitty Usher, but unfortunately he will probably win due to the situation with the current Conservative leadership being a complete sh!t show.
Antony Higginbottam has actually been a good MP for the town in my eyes and it’s a shame he will lose his seat due to the incompetence of the party he represents!

The last Labour MP was local, how did that go?