Burnley General Election Prediction Competition ...

[HahaYeah]

OK I changed my guess.
From:
Labour ( 60 )
Reform ( 22 )
Lib Dem ( 8 )
Con ( 6 )
Green ( 2 )
Ind ( 2 )
----------
To:

Lib Dem ( 38 )
Labour ( 30 )
Reform ( 22 )
Con ( 6 )
Green ( 2 )
Ind ( 2 )

[South West Claret.]

Something people might consider when thinking about who to vote for in the coming General Election.

https://www.burnleyexpress.net/health/r ... e=hs_email

[Cirrus_Minor]

It is not just Burnley. There have been changes to the constituency. It is now Burnley, Padiham and Brierfield, including parts of Nelson, all of which used to be Pendle constituency.

I live in a part of Nelson that is now within the new constituency that was previously Pendle.

[basil6345789]

Another Labour stooge to be filed with the likes of Kitty Usher, but unfortunately he will probably win due to the situation with the current Conservative leadership being a complete sh!t show.
Antony Higginbottam has actually been a good MP for the town in my eyes and it’s a shame he will lose his seat due to the incompetence of the party he represents!

Birtwistle would again do the most for the area. I'm voting for the right man this time and not the party, so it's him. He knows the area, the people and is now a Clarets admirer. He'll get lots of the support that Labour have lost recently over the Palestine situation. He did very well last time he was in, securing scanners at Burnkey General and getting the Todmorden Curve finalised. He's reeght enough!

[gandhisflipflop]

Checks thread to expect posters not understanding simple instructions. Wasn’t disappointed. Some people just can’t help themselves.

[Clarets4me]

Just over 72 hours until entries close for this .... 25 entries received so far ! Time to channel your inner John Curtice, do you have your finger on the pulse of Burnley's voters, or are you in a political " bubble ", speaking only to like minded folk ?

Entry is FREE, and the winner gets £25 to donate to their chosen charity !! The original post gives full details on how things work, if you wish to change your forecast, that's OK, I'll use your most recent entry. Again, PLEASE LIMIT POSTS TO YOUR PREDICTIONS, in line with the site's policy on Political posts ...

[Inchy]

Labour ( 35)
Reform ( 25)
Cons (17)
Lib Dem ( 10)
Green ( 8)
Ind ( 5 )

[IanMcL]

Labour 42%
Reform/Bnp 20
Cons 20
Fibdems 11
Greens 5
Ind 2

[IanMcL]

Don't want to start a new thread, so intruding on here. Sorry.

Salisbury my current home but on the market, is evidently now the nation's most marginal seat.
Tories had 57% of the vote in 2019.
Currently Labour and tories even with Labour a per cent up in 8 polls. Fibdems drifting in 3rd place. Reform about even with them. Amazing.

[Clarets4me]

My final prediction ...

Labour 35
Con 21
Reform 18
L/D 14
IND 9
Green 3

Entries close at 10pm tomorrow night ...

[Lowbankclaret]

Having door knocked for the Brexit party at the last election and seen real people wishing for change and wanting Brexit.
It was no surprise those people switched to Antony when Farage pulled all his candidates. Still think there is a hang over from that betrayal.
I did shake Antony’s hand about 11:30 at the count as it was obvious to me he had won having been to many many counts over the years.
So I think the hang over will cost Reform votes this time around. So it will be a Labour win. But reform will be closer than people think.
Poor Antony who has been good to be fair will be judged by the party performance, not his.
Labour 32%
Reform 26%
Con 12%
Ld 10%

[AGENT_CLARET]

Sorry to be a pain but I'm changing my prediction at the last minute

Old prediction

Labour 41.9%
Reform 17.8
Conservatives 12.4%
Liberal Democrats 14.6
Greens 8.1%
Independent 5.2%

New prediction

Liberal Democrats 38.9%
Labour 20.6
Reform 15.8
Conservatives 12.4%
Greens 7.1%
Independent 5.2%

[SalouClaret]

Labour - 46
Reform - 18
Lib Dem - 15.5
Con - 13
Green - 4
Ind - 3.5

[SalouClaret]

For the people who are thinking the Lib Dems have a chance; they're currently 25/1 to win in Burnley on Bet365. Fill your boots!

[Clarets4me]

Having door knocked for the Brexit party at the last election and seen real people wishing for change and wanting Brexit.
It was no surprise those people switched to Antony when Farage pulled all his candidates. Still think there is a hang over from that betrayal.
I did shake Antony’s hand about 11:30 at the count as it was obvious to me he had won having been to many many counts over the years.
So I think the hang over will cost Reform votes this time around. So it will be a Labour win. But reform will be closer than people think.
Poor Antony who has been good to be fair will be judged by the party performance, not his.
Labour 32%
Reform 26%
Con 12%
Ld 10%

Your entry only adds up to 80%, " Lowbankclaret " .... can you amend, please ?

[Dum Spiro Spero]

LABOUR 43.1
LIBDEM 19.9
REFORM 15.2
CON 15.0
GREEN 5.7
IND 1.1

[evensteadiereddie]

Labour 44
Reform 18
Conmen 14
Lib Dems 14
Greens 6
Indies 4

[South West Claret.]

“PLEASE LIMIT COMMENTS TO THE SUBJECT AND NOT YOUR POLITICAL OPINION”

Why not?

[Clarets4me]

A decision was taken some time ago by the " mods " ( Those who give up their time and energy to police this site ), to stop " Political " threads on here, as it is primarily a football site for Burnley FC supporters, in all our infinite variety ...

Although I enjoyed and contributed to the previous political stuff, I absolutely respect their decision. I've run this contest for the 2017 and 2019 General Elections, and the £25 Prize comes out of my own pocket. The winner's chosen charity is the beneficiary, and I don't want to see the thread deleted because it's designated " Political ". It's just a bit of fun at the end of the day ... I look forward to seeing your prediction !!

[Clarets4me]

FINAL CALL ....

Entries for this Competition will close in 90 minutes ! This is exactly 24 hours before the polls close in the 2024 UK General Election, and at which time the BBC,ITV,SKY " Exit Poll " will be published ... I will take an average of all our entries predictions and use " Electoral Calculus's " turnout rate ( c.57% ) and then publish the " Beehole End Electoral Forecast ", using our combined wisdom for the Burnley Constituency, and see if we can beat the Professional pollsters. I have 30 valid entries so far ... keep them coming !

[Lowbankclaret]

Edited.

Labour 38%
Reform 30%
Con 18%
Ld 10%
Ind the rest

[giveusaB]

Go on I’ll have a go.

Lab 33%
Lib Dem’s 29%
Con 18%
Reform 14%
Green. 5%
Ind. 1%

[South West Claret.]

A decision was taken some time ago by the " mods " ( Those who give up their time and energy to police this site ), to stop " Political " threads on here, as it is primarily a football site for Burnley FC supporters, in all our infinite variety ...

Although I enjoyed and contributed to the previous political stuff, I absolutely respect their decision. I've run this contest for the 2017 and 2019 General Elections, and the £25 Prize comes out of my own pocket. The winner's chosen charity is the beneficiary, and I don't want to see the thread deleted because it's designated " Political ". It's just a bit of fun at the end of the day ... I look forward to seeing your prediction !!

Oh really thanks anyway I think to have a VG chance of making a correct or near prediction your best to be living in the area.

Best of luck everyone.

[Clarets4me]

Oh really thanks anyway I think to have a VG chance of making a correct or near prediction your best to be living in the area.
Best of luck everyone.

No issues, " SWC " hope you're keeping well ...

To be honest, with Reform and the Tories vying for votes, all local Asian Councillors resigning the Labour " whip " and standing as Independents last May, local Muslim Community Leaders and the " Muslim Vote " organisation backing 80 year old Gordon Birtwistle, a Lib Dem former MP ( 2010-2015 ), who voted against same-sex marriage, and is a Rovers Fan ... God knows what may happen !!

[Clarets4me]

Right, the entries have closed and the numbers are in ....

The esteemed polling organisation " Electoral Calculus ", using many sophisticated formulae and algorithms, have predicted a " turnout " of 56.5% with an Electorate of 74,722.They predict ....

Labour 17,649 41.8%
Reform 11,653 27.6%
Con 7,136 16.9%
LibDem 2,828 6.7%
Green 2,069 4.9%
Ind's 887 2.1%

The combined 32 Predictions of a Burnley FC supporters " Fan's Forum ", using no more than hunches, local knowledge and a " finger in the wind ", predict the following, based on the same turnout ...

Labour 17,353 41.1%
Reform 7,811 18.5%
Con 7,769 18.4%
L/D 5,953 14.1%
Green 1,816 4.2%
Ind's 1,604 3.7%

As ever, time will tell ! Thank you for all your entries .. whatever your Political views, I would entreat you to go out and vote tomorrow, and make your voice heard ...

[Rowls]

I thought about changing my entry but thought it was against the spirit of things.

However, I'd calculated my guesses on a presumption of a turnout of 55%.

So if the above is correct, I'm rather chuffed at that estimate.

[SammyBoy]

Labour 45%
Reform 22%
Lib Dems 16%
Conservatives 10%
Greens 5%
Independent 2%

[bfcjg]

I must admit I was surprised at how busy the polling station was this morning. Glad people are voting,you can't genuinely complain if you don't.

[Clarets4me]

I thought about changing my entry but thought it was against the spirit of things. However, I'd calculated my guesses on a presumption of a turnout of 55%. So if the above is correct, I'm rather chuffed at that estimate.

I actually think the turnout will be 63-65% personally ... history shows that turnout tends to be higher when there's a general " mood for change ", ie 1945, 1979, 1997 etc. In addition, the two Brierfield wards added to the Constituency have a large Asian heritage vote, who vote in higher proportions than others ...

[Burnley Ace]

Having just driven through Daneshouse there were a lot of Lib Dem posters in the window and a surprising number of LidDem rosettes on view (I didn’t know they still made them!!)

[morninbob]

Having just driven through Daneshouse there were a lot of Lib Dem posters in the window and a surprising number of LidDem rosettes on view (I didn’t know they still made them!!)

It could be similar to after the iraq war when they all voted for Birtwhistle.

[Rowls]

I actually think the turnout will be 63-65% personally ... history shows that turnout tends to be higher when there's a general " mood for change ", ie 1945, 1979, 1997 etc. In addition, the two Brierfield wards added to the Constituency have a large Asian heritage vote, who vote in higher proportions than others ...

Yes, that's why I think there's going to be a low turnout.

There's no great appetite for Starmer. He's going to have the worst personal rating of any incoming PM.

There's an appetite to kick the Tories out, yes. But this is not the same as an appetite for change.

People of "Asian heritage" do tend to vote in higher proportions. But again, I don't think that will translate into many votes for Labour at this election, for reasons that will be clear to anybody following current affairs and what is important to people of "Asian heritage".

[Clarets4me]

It could be similar to after the iraq war when they all voted for Birtwhistle.

This is an extract from a " Times " article published on 24th June ....

" Over the past few weeks, much of the resentment against the party has been marshalled by a campaign called Burnley Brierfield Vote (BBV), run by a group of local Muslim community leaders, including imams, businessmen and solicitors. At a meeting of about 300 people held at Burnley community centre earlier this month, the group anointed Birtwistle as their chosen candidate after he told the audience that he would push for an immediate ceasefire if elected, reflecting the position that the Liberal Democrats adopted last November.

A major campaign is now underway to mobilise the town’s Muslims support behind Birtwistle, who was the town’s MP during the coalition years of 2010 to 2015. Weekly meetings are being held in community centres around the town and videos are being promoted on social media. Birtwistle estimates there are about 50 BBV members working to help him get elected; by contrast there are eight Liberal Democrat staff members. "

I'm sure this is reliable, but just how many votes it'll translate into remains to be seen ... it will however have a negative effect on Labour, who may lose 6-7,000 voters from their 2019 total of 14,368 ... The Conservatives will undoubtedly lose votes to Reform at a higher rate than Labour. If by some chance Reform take the seat, then Burnley may go into history, having elected MP's from 4 different parties in less than 15 years ..

[Clarets4me]

I must admit I was surprised at how busy the polling station was this morning. Glad people are voting, you can't genuinely complain if you don't.

We voted about an hour ago, and there seemed to be a good number of names crossed through, certainly more than most other General Elections I've seen, and this is my 11th ...

[Rowls]

A major campaign is now underway to mobilise the town’s Muslims support behind Birtwistle, who was the town’s MP during the coalition years of 2010 to 2015. Weekly meetings are being held in community centres around the town and videos are being promoted on social media.

Hmmmmm? Sounds like this is something the police should be investigating TBH.

[Clarets4me]

Hmmmmm? Sounds like this is something the police should be investigating TBH.

Mobilising and maximising the vote is not an offence, it was common-place back in the 60's & 70's." Tellers " would sit outside each polling station and politely ask for your poll card number or name, and then tick you off. Later in the day, after 6, they'd collate who'd voted and then send fleets of cars round to known supporters who hadn't voted and ferry them to their polling station if needed ...

[CrosspoolClarets]

Labour 35%
Reform 25%
Conservatives 15%
Lib Dems 15%
Independent 6%
Greens 4%

Think you need a deadline on this, things swing around and the fun is getting the prediction in early, will all be obvious by polling day.

Went for this nearly a month ago and still feel confident with that prediction

Apolitical observation - if an option on the ballot existed for “none of the above” it could win

[Rowls]

Mobilising and maximising the vote is not an offence, it was common-place back in the 60's & 70's." Tellers " would sit outside each polling station and politely ask for your poll card number or name, and then tick you off. Later in the day, after 6, they'd collate who'd voted and then send fleets of cars round to known supporters who hadn't voted and ferry them to their polling station if needed ...

Applying any kind of what is termed "spiritual influence" on voters is a specific offence.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/20 ... 20election.

If I were to try and persuade people to vote a particular way by saying, "Christians have a duty to vote for X party" I would be breaking the law.

If anybody from the Brierfield group uses a similar religious argument to try and compel members of their faith to vote for a particular party or person they are breaking the law.

[Clovius Boofus]

This is an extract from a " Times " article published on 24th June ....

" At a meeting of about 300 people held at Burnley community centre earlier this month, the group anointed Birtwistle as their chosen candidate after he told the audience that he would push for an immediate ceasefire if elected

Did he say anything about getting our A&E back?

[Clarets4me]

Applying any kind of what is termed "spiritual influence" on voters is a specific offence.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/20 ... 20election.

If I were to try and persuade people to vote a particular way by saying, "Christians have a duty to vote for X party" I would be breaking the law.

If anybody from the Brierfield group uses a similar religious argument to try and compel members of their faith to vote for a particular party or person they are breaking the law.

Indeed, but the chances of the CPS/Electoral Commission bringing forward such a case are precisely zero ....

[Clarets4me]

Did he say anything about getting our A&E back ?

Not sure, although I'm told he made much of his backing of the Lib-Dems call for a Gaza ceasefire in November, his membership of the All Party " Kashmir Parliamentary Group " whilst he was an MP, and the fact that he lost his job as " Apprentice's Tsar " in the Coalition Govt ( 2010-15 ) when he voted against same-sex marriage. He may also have let slip that the closure of Burnley's A&E department was signed off by the wife of a ( then ) Labour
County Councillor representing a Burnley ward.

[Clovius Boofus]

Not sure, although I'm told he made much of his backing of the Lib-Dems call for a Gaza ceasefire in November, his membership of the All Party " Kashmir Parliamentary Group " whilst he was an MP, and the fact that he lost his job as " Apprentice's Tsar " in the Coalition Govt ( 2010-15 ) when he voted against same-sex marriage. He may also have let slip that the closure of Burnley's A&E department was signed off by the wife of a ( then ) Labour
County Councillor representing a Burnley ward.

As long as he didn't come across as opportunistic.

[sjb]

I don't live in Burnley & have never voted Labour, but I would gladly do so if it stopped Birtwistle getting in.

[IPAclaret]

Spiritual influence voting will only increase as the years go by. So much for democracy.

[Burnley Ace]

I don't live in Burnley & have never voted Labour, but I would gladly do so if it stopped Birtwistle getting in.

When you look at the quality of the other candidates he’s probably the best of a particularly weak and unimpressive group

[Clarets4me]

Just half an hour to the " exit poll " ... this is jointly funded by BBC, ITV and Sky News, and has been reasonably accurate over the last 2/3 General Elections ... there will be some surprises though ! Burnley result expected around 2.45 am, assuming there is no recounts ...

Newcastle Central & the Sunderland seats usually race to get their declarations in first, using University students to run in with ballot boxes etc, so the first actual results should come in between 11.20 - 12.00pm ...



MOD: A reminder about political comments. Keep to the thread or the thread will be deleted. Thank you

[Rowls]

Hmmmm.

Wonder how Reform will do in Burnley?

[fanzone]

Hmmmm.

Wonder how Reform will do in Burnley?

They would have walked it 15 years ago. Reform voters are the minority now in Burnley.

[Clovius Boofus]

Reform might end up winning if the Tory vote went to them and Gaza diminishes the Labour vote.

[Clarets4me]

Just for reference, 2019 figures ...

Con 40.3%
Lab 36.9%
L/D 9.0%
Brex/Ref 8.6%
Others 3.3%
Green 1.9%