The Run In - Jeopardy

[ChorltonCharlie]

Keep seeing that we’ve got the toughest run in, so thought I’d look at it from a different angle. Personally I reckon that at this stage of the season, playing top half team at home who are out of the play off running is an easier game that playing a team fighting relegation at home. Clearly not an exact science, a team fighting relegation can turn up and be absolute bobbins, but it’s not unheard of for a team to get freak results at this stage.

I’ve created a simple algorithm to use as a gauge for how tricky a teams remaining fixtures are. Two totals, one based on points, one based on places. For each team you play you accumulate 1 point for every place/point that team is over or below the nearest cut off point of jeopardy. The three cut offs are automatic promotion, play offs and relegation. If the fixture is a home game the points are doubled. The lowest score signifies the trickiest run in.

For both Sheffield United currently have by far the trickiest. On places it is this…
Sheff Utd 32
Burnley 42
Leeds 45

For points…
Sheff Utd 41
Burnley 47
Leeds 49

What’s even more interesting is if we do built Bristol City at home, which is the toughest of the next round of fixtures, we’d have by far the easiest run in based on this from that point. One to watch as the games tick off and more and more teams are on the beach.

[equinox]

Why even bother playing out the remaining fixtures?

[agreenwood]

I listened to the Turfcast podcast yesterday. It was our Joe Redmond and a pair of podcasters from Leeds & Sheff U predicting the results for the top 8 for across the last 8 fixtures.

It was interesting to hear the Sheff United chap predict that they’ll pretty much win all of their last 8 and the Leeds guy wasn’t much less optimistic.

Between the 3 of them they had Leeds top, Sheff United runners up and us 3rd.

Was quite happy with that. It’s good to be underestimated.

[Socrates]

Leeds and Sheff United fans being over-confident and arrogant?

Never!!

[AfloatinClaret]

There's a long history of 'top' teams going down to relegation threatened clubs in the latter part of the season and Leeds more often than most While we're at as much risk as anyone else in that regard, I do think our defensive record this season suggests that we're better set-up/more likely to withstand another clubs do-or-die effort to secure that win to avoid relegation than Leeds and more especially Sheffield United are.

[morninbob]

We are the only team not to throw one in like sheff utd did against hull or Leeds against Portsmouth.

[SydneyClaret]

This time last year the table after 38 games was

Leeds 82
Leicester 82
Ipswich 81

We all know what happened next

[warksclaret]

For me there is too much analysis on who we play next, and the chances of beating them. Some of our worst performances have been playing some of the lower league clubs, and our only two league defeats have been Millwall, and Sunderland (who I now feel are out of the auto promo race). Overall I think a comparison of the remaining fixtures of the top three contenders is pretty similar-time will tell. Nerves and the ability of the three respective managers to remain calm and motivational, plus the ability to mater mind astute substitutional changes may instead prove to be the deciding factors

[Rowls]

This time last year the table after 38 games was

Leeds 82
Leicester 82
Ipswich 81

We all know what happened next

I'd happily settle for second place if we got a re-run of that scenario!

[CoolClaret]

Who had us losing at home against QPR at the end of the 22-23 season?

Probably no one... nothing is a given in this league!

[daveisaclaret]

I think it's fair to say the vast majority of analysis on here about the run in starts from the position of us going up and works backwards. If we had Leeds' or Sheffield United's run in we'd be seeing all the reasons why it was favourable too.

There's nothing wrong with it and I think we're going up too but might as well be sensible about it.

[Stonehouse]

Who had us losing at home against QPR at the end of the 22-23 season?

Probably no one... nothing is a given in this league!

Wasn’t that the cunning plan to win the league at Ewood.

[CoolClaret]

Wasn’t that the cunning plan to win the league at Ewood.

Aye something like that... though we also drew two on the spin to Reading & Rotherham prior to the QPR game as well!

[FCBurnley]

We need to get at least level on points with Sheff U before we play them then a draw and win our last game will do the trick We don’t want to be in a position where we have to beat them otherwise the will simply shut up shop and kill the game

[It Is What It Is]

3 points V Millwall last game of the season will get us auto promotion.

[Vegas Claret]

if Parker gets us promoted from this position with or remaining fixtures then it would be absolutely incredible imho

[Claretforever]

Leeds’ final 8 games last season when seemingly nailed on for promotion.

[Dark Cloud]

We'll finish third. It's been written since early October. Chill and just make sure you don't book owt for the dates of the play offs!

[Spijed]

Very unlikely as it is, I suspect if Leeds were to lose their upcoming home match against Swansea we'll get promoted with a bit to spare.
Even some are starting to doubt their ability to get over the line:
https://motforum.com/article.php?page=4 ... c937a2738e

[Dark Cloud]

Leeds will definitely get promoted automatically. Sheffield U might be slightly doubtful, but they weren't great in the derby last week and still won it rather fortuitously. That's promotion form. We're the ones who have to basically win 8 out of 8 and the team under the most pressure. We can't afford any slip ups. Too many draws against average/poor teams will bite us in the buttocks in the final reckoning and we can't argue with that!

[Spijed]

Leeds will definitely get promoted automatically. Sheffield U might be slightly doubtful, but they weren't great in the derby last week and still won it rather fortuitously. That's promotion form. We're the ones who have to basically win 8 out of 8 and the team under the most pressure. We can't afford any slip ups. Too many draws against average/poor teams will bite us in the buttocks in the final reckoning and we can't argue with that!

Leeds might well get promoted automatically, but two points in front of us at this stage doesn't suggest they are much better. If we've drawn too many matches then it doesn't say much about their form.

[boatshed bill]

We'll finish third. It's been written since early October. Chill and just make sure you don't book owt for the dates of the play offs!

I think it's fair to say that most of us would have been delighted with that at the start of the season, given the "exodus".

[billyhamilton82]

We will win the league.

Not sure who will go up with us, not really bothered tbh.

Got a feeling one of the current top two could miss out and Coventry sneak in through the play offs.

[Dark Cloud]

We are the only team not to throw one in like sheff utd did against hull or Leeds against Portsmouth.

Yet!

[HurstGrangeClaret]

Leeds will definitely get promoted automatically. Sheffield U might be slightly doubtful, but they weren't great in the derby last week and still won it rather fortuitously. That's promotion form. We're the ones who have to basically win 8 out of 8 and the team under the most pressure. We can't afford any slip ups. Too many draws against average/poor teams will bite us in the buttocks in the final reckoning and we can't argue with that!

Your user name is incredibly apt!

[willsclarets]

Impossible to call. I've been looking at Sheffield United for weeks to let us sneak past but they always seem to find a win when they need to. All the while Leeds have been dragged back into the picture.

The thing now is that bottom teams become more dangerous than the middle of the table clubs dreaming of the beach. A simple look at the fixture list probably doesn't tell you which games are going to be the toughest

[jake102556]

I'm settling for playoffs psychologically. If we get 1st or 2nd, it'll be a bonus. It'll drive me bloody mad otherwise. If we get a few neutral referees then who knows. But we get one of those every 16 games.

[bfcmik]

Most of the 'Who's going up?' analyses I've seen discount us because of all those draws, especially those from the 1st half of the season. But I believe we have morphed ourselves, particularly since Edwards was signed, into something with more potency, although, to be fair, we do seem to have lost a little of that defensive shield whilst doing so.

I'm thinking we are now clearly playing to win as well as not lose, the substitutions seem to be a bit more positive and a little earlier. Of course, playing with an intent to take three points doesn't mean you will get them, Preston away should have been a win but for some very poor finishing and West Brom scored a great goal to take the lead before being caught, we should probably have won that game too!

[mickleoverclaret]

The fact that we've gone 25 games unbeaten and are still third suggests to me we're going to find it difficult to overtake one of the other two in the final 8 games, but hope springs eternal!

[Quicknick]

We'll finish top, Leeds second.

[clarets1978]

We'll finish third. It's been written since early October. Chill and just make sure you don't book owt for the dates of the play offs!

Good job the team that got promoted in the 1999/2000 season didnt think that! Anything can happen!

[NewClaret]

We'll finish top, Leeds second.

Really admire your (and others) confidence and positivity!

Can’t say I feel the same, mainly because I’ve not seen enough from the team to think they’ll really go for wins. I feel we’re too cautious by nature now and don’t really have the “plan b” if our patient build up, pass it around them style isn’t working. I can’t see us loading the box or being direct enough early in games to get the win, or even in the last 20-25 minutes.

If we show a change of attitude in this respect early in the opening games, I’ll be glad to be wrong.

The biggest thing I think we could’ve worked on in this time off is set pieces and more of a direct style to use when the football isn’t working. If we had that I’d think we stood a good chance.

We have the hardest fixtures by some way, but on the other hand could go the season unbeaten at home and top of the away form league, breaking defensive records along the way, which is absolutely incredible to think all that might not earn you automatic promotion. Feel we’ve been a bit unlucky to have two really consistent teams in the mix with us.

[Luppy]

From my point of view, Leeds will finish top - I just can't see them blowing it again, though dafter things have happened.

I've watched Sheff Utd 4 or 5 times this season and in the main they have been woeful - but the game against us aside, still picked up results. How they beat Sheff Weds away and Portsmouth at home is staggering - but they did, and that's the sign of a side going up.

I think we will beat Sheff Utd but can see us slipping up somewhere unexpected along the way - I certainly don't see us winning all 8 games.

Lots of twists and turns between now and May but ultimiately it is in our own hands - win them all and it's irrelevant what everyone else does

[Spijed]

At this point why do many assume Leeds will finish top when they aren't even the best side in the division to date?

Just wondered

[ChorltonCharlie]

Not sure why my post has been seen as a prediction by some. All it was is a simplistic way of looking at how 'easy' fixtures at this stage of the season can be far from easy. Some people are suggesting our fixtures are by far the toughest. Not sure how that works out. Below the top 4 is mediocrity. The hardest fixture for a team left is Sheffield United travelling up here. Coventry away is tricky with their current form, but they haven't been playing that well and concede plenty. Coventry also have to play Sheffield United. Derby away could be a nightmare. A resurgent direct team fighting for points playing on a cabbage patch of a pitch. The other 5 though are nothing to be feared at all. Doesn't mean we win them all, but they're the kind of games a promoted team does win.

The underlying point is I'm not convinced I'd swap our fixtures for those of Sheffield United. Leeds clearly have the best run in facing less teams in jeopardy, and when they do they're at the bottom end of the table. Sheffield United's though has a lot of banana skins.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Most of our jeopardy is on the next 2 games so I am holding off bold predictions until after that.

Bristol City ended the last 25 match unbeaten run (Southampton) and Coventry are on fire,

Win both those then I think our remaining fixtures afterwards are the best, including Sheffield United at home which is perfect and a chance to get 2 results in 1 game (a good one for us and a bad one for them).

[clarets1978]

Not sure why my post has been seen as a prediction by some. All it was is a simplistic way of looking at how 'easy' fixtures at this stage of the season can be far from easy. Some people are suggesting our fixtures are by far the toughest. Not sure how that works out. Below the top 4 is mediocrity. The hardest fixture for a team left is Sheffield United travelling up here. Coventry away is tricky with their current form, but they haven't been playing that well and concede plenty. Coventry also have to play Sheffield United. Derby away could be a nightmare. A resurgent direct team fighting for points playing on a cabbage patch of a pitch. The other 5 though are nothing to be feared at all. Doesn't mean we win them all, but they're the kind of games a promoted team does win.

The underlying point is I'm not convinced I'd swap our fixtures for those of Sheffield United. Leeds clearly have the best run in facing less teams in jeopardy, and when they do they're at the bottom end of the table. Sheffield United's though has a lot of banana skins.

Coventry havent been playing that well?? They've won 10 out of thier last 12. Both us and Sheffield are going to find that a difficult game in the next couple of weeks. We have to stop the headers... thats how they score most of thier goals

[ChorltonCharlie]

Coventry havent been playing that well?? They've won 10 out of thier last 12. Both us and Sheffield are going to find that a difficult game in the next couple of weeks. We have to stop the headers... thats how they score most of thier goals

I'm well aware of their recent record, but there's a lot of similarities with both ours and Sheffield United's form over the whole season. Some of their wins have been in games where they'd been fortunate to get all 3 points. In that run they were also comfortably beaten by Leeds at home.

[get stuck in tracy]

We'll finish third. It's been written since early October. Chill and just make sure you don't book owt for the dates of the play offs!

I guess my statistical trends didnt convince you DC or the fact that we won the first division title having never been in the top two all season but for once.Dare to dream.

[CJ_Claret]

We need to get at least level on points with Sheff U before we play them then a draw and win our last game will do the trick We don’t want to be in a position where we have to beat them otherwise the will simply shut up shop and kill the game

This 100%

The sooner we can draw level on points or go in front of Sheff U, I suspect it will be job done.

We don't want to head into that fixture with it a must win.

[summitclaret]

This 100%

The sooner we can draw level on points or go in front of Sheff U, I suspect it will be job done.

We don't want to head into that fixture with it a must win.

This weekend is our best and maybe last chance to do that, looking at SU's fixtures. Live on Sky Friday night. Come on Coventry.

[willsclarets]

This weekend is our best and maybe last chance to do that, looking at SU's fixtures. Live on Sky Friday night. Come on Coventry.

Oxford, Plymouth and Stoke away might look, as does Cardiff at home. But I wouldn't bet against them dropping points with all those teams fighting for survival.

[Quicknick]

Really admire your (and others) confidence and positivity!

Can’t say I feel the same, mainly because I’ve not seen enough from the team to think they’ll really go for wins. I feel we’re too cautious by nature now and don’t really have the “plan b” if our patient build up, pass it around them style isn’t working. I can’t see us loading the box or being direct enough early in games to get the win, or even in the last 20-25 minutes.

If we show a change of attitude in this respect early in the opening games, I’ll be glad to be wrong.

The biggest thing I think we could’ve worked on in this time off is set pieces and more of a direct style to use when the football isn’t working. If we had that I’d think we stood a good chance.

We have the hardest fixtures by some way, but on the other hand could go the season unbeaten at home and top of the away form league, breaking defensive records along the way, which is absolutely incredible to think all that might not earn you automatic promotion. Feel we’ve been a bit unlucky to have two really consistent teams in the mix with us.

Apart from the WBA match at home, we've had some really good wins lately. We're top of the form table over the last eight games. Of course we can win it.

[Spijed]

Apart from the WBA match at home, we've had some really good wins lately. We're top of the form table over the last eight games. Of course we can win it.

And in the last eight games we've made up three points on Leeds and one point on Sheffield United.

[SydneyClaret]

[quote=Quicknick post_id=2528382 time=<a href="tel:1742856396">1742856396</a> user_id=642]
Apart from the WBA match at home, we've had some really good wins lately. We're top of the form table over the last eight games. Of course we can win it.

And in the last eight games we've made up three points on Leeds and one point on Sheffield United.
[/quote]

Do the same in the next 8 and we are champions.

[jrgbfc]

Agree with those saying you want to be playing teams in mid-table at this stage. Derby away for example suddenly looks a bit tougher now, they're fighting for their lives and results have picked up last few weeks.

[SouthLondonexile]

Well since we bought in Marcus Edwards I think we are winning games and keeping a momentum. We drive forward more and there is just two points separating the top 3.
There are two tricky games for us Sheffield Utd and the away game at QPR. Do well against these two should - as well as not losing the others should see us promoted.

[Spijed]

Apart from the WBA match at home, we've had some really good wins lately. We're top of the form table over the last eight games. Of course we can win it.

And another interesting stat over the last eight matches.

We've scored the same number of goals as Leeds (16) which is four more than Sheff United over the same period.

[mybloodisclaret]

Well since we bought in Marcus Edwards I think we are winning games and keeping a momentum. We drive forward more and there is just two points separating the top 3.
There are two tricky games for us Sheffield Utd and the away game at QPR. Do well against these two should - as well as not losing the others should see us promoted.

Cov and Derby away will be both be tough.

[Claretnick]

Cov and Derby away will be both be tough.

We have 8 tough games, 8 cup finals. We are a good team with good players. Our fans at each game need to be 12th man for the lads.....