May's EU speech

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:15 pm

30 minutes in and she is doing great.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:18 pm

Started well, but now too much "having our cake and eating it".

Only a negotiating ploy so far, but still.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:22 pm

and would be wrong to give away any more prior to formal discussions.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:27 pm

Well, giving away EU membership before the start of negotiations is a bit weird*

*though I understand why from her and her power base point of view, its still a pretty big carrot to give away straight off.

Now she's in fantasy land to be honest.

But lets face it, it was always going to be this.

It really is going to go down to just how much do Germans want to sell their cars to us, which is a pretty sad state of affairs.

Wilsdenclaret · Post by **Wilsdenclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:44 pm

The same old deluded nonsense

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:44 pm

It will probably equally come down to how much people from Eastern European countries want to come and work over here.

Croydon Claret · Post by **Croydon Claret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:48 pm

It's just a starting point for negotiation. EU will have a polar opposite starting point.

In a normal world we'd end up somewhere in the middle. Given its the EU we'll probably have to accept all their terms plus pay a huge fine for the audacity of trying to beat the system

Falcon · Post by **Falcon** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:49 pm

High on soundbites, low on actual detail. Not sure why anyone expected anything more.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:50 pm

Leaving the EU isn't leaving a carrot, it's dropping a turd.
The whole world trades with Europe and so will we, whatever May or Merkel say to their lackies.

The vote was to leave the EU, not well we'll leave, but only if we have an easy Brexit.
Personally I couldn't care either way, I just want out, but having said that it I'm sure it will all turn out to be breast beating. They can't afford to cut off their nose to spite their face. Trade is trade, and when it comes to doing business politics go out the window. Just remember where Saddam and Gaddafi got all their weapons.

RocketLawnChair · Post by **RocketLawnChair** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:54 pm

You're all idiots.

No need for Imploding Turtle to join in now.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:54 pm

Completely random question on this thread for no reason whatsoever

Are we still not allowed to call people thick as pigshit?

Bertiebeehead · Post by **Bertiebeehead** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:57 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Completely random question on this thread for no reason whatsoever

Are we still not allowed to call people thick as pigshit?

I think you just did.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:58 pm

Yeah, think I did.

I miss Rowls on threads like this, at least he had a vague idea what he was on about.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:02 pm

interesting speech from our impressively deluded ukip prime minister.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:05 pm

Nigel Farage is coming in his pants on twitter.

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:10 pm

Thought she played this well, put the ball firmly in the EU's court.

If they want to turn this into nastiness on the basis of political means then it will paint them to be the bad guys. If they continue down the path of hostile noises, threats and non-guaranteeing of basic rights of people and business they will give much more fuel to their own euro-skeptic domestic channels; as well as their own people, and businesses and thus cause divisions and problems in house, which is the very last thing they need.

evensteadiereddie · Post by **evensteadiereddie** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:10 pm

The pound's doing well................

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:12 pm

Oh its a political speech designed to put the ball in the Eus courts CM. No doubt about that at all.

We will have to wait and see if the EU are going to roll over for the UK.

NottsClaret · Post by **NottsClaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:12 pm

I haven't got time to listen to the whole thing.

Any chance you could pop the gist of it on the side of a bus?

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:15 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Oh its a political speech designed to put the ball in the Eus courts CM. No doubt about that at all.

We will have to wait and see if the EU are going to roll over for the UK.

I don't think they are going to roll over, even if I do honestly believe it is in the interests of their member states (not the Eu itself) to do so. However, with very publicly outlining that we are willing to reject a deal if we don't like it, they will now have to take us a lot more seriously than they did the last time Cameron came knocking on their door in search of something better. I'm sure of that.

Bacchus · Post by **Bacchus** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:16 pm

ClaretMoffitt wrote:Thought she played this well, put the ball firmly in the EU's court.

If they want to turn this into nastiness on the basis of political means then it will paint them to be the bad guys. If they continue down the path of hostile noises, threats and non-guaranteeing of basic rights of people and business

Have they been doing that? I thought most of that had come from this side of the fence, to be fair. The EU have been putting out a simple & pretty consistent all along - Brexit means hard Brexit, which is pretty much what May has just conceded. We're the ones leaving the EU so trying to paint them as the aggressors is a bit odd.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:16 pm

Course, any deal is reliant on the er, "undemocratic" EU voting on this.

So if we **** off, or example Hesse-Darmstandt in Germany, then it wouldn't matter if the rest of the er, "undemocratic" EU couldn't ratify it.

So be nice to every single European you meet guys, we are going to need them!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:18 pm

Why CM?

We've just left it, before any negotiation takes place.

If I was France or Germany, I'd be pushing right now to the bankers in London for their business.

We've just thrown them a real chance IF they decide to take it.

Its a very, very, very risky move by the Govt

kentonclaret · Post by **kentonclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:31 pm

Theresa May has only confirmed in her speech what the leaders of the other EU states have already told her both publicly and in private - that we have voted to leave the EU and that we should get on with it, as whilst there will be negotiations on the terms of our departure there will be no "cherry-picking" of the parts of the EU that we like and the parts that we don't. The EU made it abundantly clear that without free movement there can be no free trade deals. To try and claim that we are somehow setting the agenda is just wishful thinking.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:38 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Oh its a political speech designed to put the ball in the Eus courts CM. No doubt about that at all.

We will have to wait and see if the EU are going to roll over for the UK.

It isn't a question of anyone rolling over, just a question of pragmatism at the end of the day. They all want to look like winners, when whatever the outcome some people will gain some will lose whichever side of the channel you live.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:40 pm

Much more sensible post Colburn, one that I broadly agree with.

But there is dangers if people don't react the way that we (and presumably the EU) want them to.

Especially after the events of 2016

BurnleyPaul · Post by **BurnleyPaul** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:41 pm

UK > EU trade = £5.9 billion p.a
EU > UK trade = = £12.6 billion p.a

I can't imagine many EU businesses being happy at not only losing that trade but having to pay WTO tariffs to try and regain access...

As for the idea that France and Germany will try to steal our banking and finance sector- I'd be surprised if any of them are daft enough to leave when you have the US already talking about free trade agreements. Never mind Canada, NZ etc

All that's happened today is that May has shown a hand grenade to the EU and said- "I'll pull the pin if I have to...."

Bin Ont Turf · Post by **Bin Ont Turf** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:42 pm

quoonbeatz wrote:interesting speech from our impressively deluded ukip prime minister.

Not sure what you're on about.

Were you expecting tears and tantrums from her?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:43 pm

Thats an excellent analogy there BurnleyPaul.

Lets hope no one in Europe wants to pull that pin!

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:48 pm

Bacchus wrote:Have they been doing that? I thought most of that had come from this side of the fence, to be fair. The EU have been putting out a simple & pretty consistent all along - Brexit means hard Brexit, which is pretty much what May has just conceded. We're the ones leaving the EU so trying to paint them as the aggressors is a bit odd.

It is not us who have refused to guarantee the rights of EU citizens living already in our country, we have wanted to do that since day one. It is EU leaders who refuse to do so as they would rather use these people as bargaining chips during negotiations.

It is also not us who wish to threaten businesses with trade tariffs and restrict cross nation trade. It is the EU, and they are doing this not in the interests of their members states, but in the interests of the organisation itself, they sense an existential crisis and are willing to hurt their members to hurt us. Why anyone would want to be a part of such a union on here I will never understand, but that is the current situation.

Lancasterclaret wrote:Why CM?

We've just left it, before any negotiation takes place.

If I was France or Germany, I'd be pushing right now to the bankers in London for their business.

We've just thrown them a real chance IF they decide to take it.

Its a very, very, very risky move by the Govt

I do not believe our financial industries will consider France a viable option at this point, not with their current government being quite so anti-business, as they see it. They have a recent history of very high tax rates, that have been very off putting for high earners and those in the banking industries. Germany, well, maybe. It all depends on how we deal with that from our perspective, and how stable Germany remains over the next couple of years. London is one of the financial capitals of the world, there is a massive infrastructure already built in place there specifically for its needs, they won't up and move on a whim.

Besides, as the PM rightly made mention of, we offer a hell of a lot to EU countries in terms of trade, intelligence, security and share values. We have made it clear we do not want to risk these things. We simply do not want to be a member of their little club, that is all. It is a risk, yes, but I think it would be a much greater risk for the EU to cut off their nose to spite their face in this instance. Let us take for example the motor industry, we buy a hell of a lot of German cars, yes? We want to keep buying those cars, and keep German motor industries happy. If the EU were to put a tariff on our trade, just for political reasons, they would hurt German trade, and more over hurt Germany as a result. It is simply not good business. Also, on another note, in the face of growing terrorist threats, our intelligence services have been second to none in keeping its citizens safe, we have shared intelligence with many EU countries, if we were to limit this due to EU hostility, it could leave EU member states more vulnerable to attacks, which they have already proved at times unable to deal with. They need all the help they can get, as I think this will get more worse for them over the next few years.

As the BoE said this week, the EU stands to be hurt much more than the UK in the event of a hard brexit. We have less to lose by walking away than they do. That is why they will, for all their huffing and puffing, try to meet our terms. If they, as you seem to believe they will, just offer us a bad deal and stand their ground, it will hurt them much more than us, and I believe, ultimately be their downfall.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01 ... rney-says/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:53 pm

All good points CM.

If Slovakia votes against the treaty we come to with the EU (for example), then it won't be ratified by the EU.

Thats the reality of the situation. I'm well aware that things change, but we've got to have a deal that suits the UK, 27 European countries and all their regions (depending on each countries political system).

This could take some time!

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:56 pm

Bin Ont Turf wrote:Not sure what you're on about.

Were you expecting tears and tantrums from her?

no.

not sure what you're on about either!

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:57 pm

What did the Remoaner establishment tell us ?

The pound would tank today.

It's soared !!!

Just another in a long line of Remoaner lies

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 1:58 pm

Well, I would be hoping that we went into any negotiations with the EU with as many cards as possible.

I've already said that it was impossible for her to do that, but its still a mistake (IMHO of course)

But I'm a diehard remainer, so I fully appreciate that the way I'd do it would be very different to the way the PM would!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:02 pm

Worth mentioning that the Germans have already highlighted the emptiness of the Uk threat btw.

https://t.co/eaekhpOn0D" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Of course, the Germans are part of the EU so its not as simple as they wouldn't be bothered, but it is something to bear in mind.

Bin Ont Turf · Post by **Bin Ont Turf** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:02 pm

quoonbeatz wrote:no.

not sure what you're on about either!

Well you've called someone who campaigned and voted to remain in the EU a deluded UKIP Prime Minister.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:04 pm

There's next to no chance of getting the EU to agree a deal within 2 years. So, we go no deal. There's no other practical choice IMO. We trade with Europe on the same terms as the USA and China deal with Europe; but we do not deal with the USA and China on the same terms as the EU deals with the USA and China; we can make our own deals there. The majority of our exports go outside the EU, and we can now (if we choose) make them tariff-free. Access to the world single market, if you like, instead of the EU single market. The EU single market isn't the only market.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:05 pm

Bin Ont Turf wrote:Well you've called someone who campaigned and voted to remain in the EU a deluded UKIP Prime Minister.

just poking some satirical fun, BOT.

i found it a rather ukip-esque speech, thats all.

BabylonClaret · Post by **BabylonClaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:10 pm

ClaretMoffitt wrote:I don't think they are going to roll over, even if I do honestly believe it is in the interests of their member states (not the Eu itself) to do so. However, with very publicly outlining that we are willing to reject a deal if we don't like it, they will now have to take us a lot more seriously than they did the last time Cameron came knocking on their door in search of something better. I'm sure of that.

I'm not sure on the terms and sequencing here so I may be wrong but don;t we have to formally trigger Article 50 before we start any negotiation? If so then the clock is ticking isn't it and if the 2 year window is enforceable (lets be honest here, nobody has done this before so we don't know if it is or not in a practical sense) then that puts us at more of a disadvantage than a collective group on the other side.

We NEED them for a whole bunch of stuff. True the export/import numbers are in our favour on paper but it rather depends what that export import is doesn't it? Take a look round the supermarket next time and see how much of our food comes from Europe. That's trade they could if they were arsey (and I accept it's not likely) take a hit on and lose some money. That would be pretty disastrous for us.

How much gas, coal and raw materials sit in that 16bn of imports from EU?

All that stuff might be essential for their economy to operate at the level it does now but in a market worth HUNDREDS of billions it's not the be all and end all. If push came to shove (and again I'm not saying it will happen because people are likely to be far more practical) stopping trade with us means they tighten their belts a bit more and everyone has a bit of a poor time for a bit whilst they reconfigure other markets. For us it's pretty seismic.

It's not simply about Germany wanting to sell us BMWs.

Clarets4me · Post by **Clarets4me** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:10 pm

On Security, we are part of the " Five eyes " network, comprising the United States, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand freely sharing intelligence between each other. The US, in particular, are very choosy what they share with France & Germany as they don't trust them with sensitive information.
This has been the case for some time.

I wouldn't underestimate the desire of the EU to be seen to punish the UK for having the temerity to leave their ranks, to deter any other member states. They don't do " pragmatic " , as can be seen by the fact they have 2 Parliaments and spend £30m p.a. to sit is Strasberg, for every one week in four...

Bin Ont Turf · Post by **Bin Ont Turf** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:11 pm

Okay, but it had to be a UKIP-esque speech really.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:14 pm

The speech will be welcomed by triumphant brexiteers.

And at least the speech will give Remoaners another opportunity to talk down Britain. And enjoy one more communal hissy fit for those suffering from a terminal lack of self confidence!!

Just need the clarets to progress to the 4th round of the cup and everybody's happy!!!!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:17 pm

Having the option to stay in the customs union is a card Tom.

Its not one now.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:18 pm

Does that mean if we get knocked out, we can blame it on May's Speech?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:27 pm

I posted it as an example of the weaknesses of our position Tom. Pretending that our position is water tight get no one anywhere.

I've posted on this thread that I broadly agree that both sides have a lot more to lose from an unsatisfactory agreement for both sides, but that possibility is there.

Do I want us to succeed outside of Europe?

Of course, because I'm British first and foremost. But this is going to take some time, and that is without even beginning to talk about the situation in NI and Scotland.

summitclaret · Post by **summitclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:30 pm

All she had done is set out her objectives and ensure that nothing has been given away yet. She did say that compromises with be needed on both sides.

I would not rule out some major changes over 2 years especially as I hope that the people of the EU will make it clear to their governments that the EU in it's current format is not working. I don't want Le Pen to win in France for obvious reasons but I do want her the frighten the establishment to death by coming a very close second. So near that they will change before the next time.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:30 pm

I think she'd be rightly accused of taking the p1ss and being economically illiterate to suggest she wanted to have her own trade deals with third countries while still in Customs Union.

Sorry, should have been clearer in my original post.

She's also chucked out the remaining in the ECHR card as well (I think)

Tribesmen · Post by **Tribesmen** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:35 pm

evensteadiereddie wrote:The pound's doing well................

Hummmmm coming over to London at the weekend and put off buying sterling until tomorrow as I was thinking the ass would fall out of the pound , hey didn't quite work out that way just yet .

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:58 pm

The EU will bend over backwards to keep up us in the single market, the Leave campaigners once claimed.

At least May has now accepted what the EU and others have been saying all along; that full access to the single market requires the acceptance of the 4 freedoms of movement.

Now, I'd prefer that she'd seen sense by this point and realised that we're better off accepting those freedoms, but no. She's in full scale UKIP mode now, and nothing is going to stop her from trashing her own country's economy in order to please the anti-immigration mob.

It looks like we hate foreigners more than we like a strong economy. Which is a shame.

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:00 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:The EU will bend over backwards to keep up us in the single market, the Leave campaigners once claimed.

At least May has now accepted what the EU and others have been saying all along; that full access to the single market requires the acceptance of the 4 freedoms of movement.

Now, I'd prefer that she'd seen sense by this point and realised that we're better off accepting those freedoms, but no. She's in full scale UKIP mode now, and nothing is going to stop her from trashing her own country's economy in order to please the anti-immigration mob.

It looks like we hate foreigners more than we like a strong economy. Which is a shame.