Downing St Press Conference

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:40 pm

Thing is, She's already got a mandate to govern the country as her party won the last election.

Her strategists have probably warned her that Lab can't get any worse, Brexit is going to get a lot worse and the economy will probably dip.

If she has a full five years, she might be able to ride that out, especially as she's going to have a huge majority.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:41 pm

CM, that looks suspiciously like a few tweets (longer of course!) that I've read this morning.

Your brexit gong set a bit late this morning or something?

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:44 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:CM, that looks suspiciously like a few tweets (longer of course!) that I've read this morning.

Your brexit gong set a bit late this morning or something?

Nah only just got out of work so I missed all the fun on social media when this got announced.

Nobody talks politics where I work so I didn't find out until I got home

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:45 pm

Only messing as you know.

You have nothing to worry about, its still going to be full steam ahead for Brexit.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:50 pm

ClaretMoffitt wrote:Well, according to all the left wing rags I read, most of the brexit voters had no idea what they were doing when they cast their vote and are having massive regrets now over it. So i'm guessing this will be a lib dem or labour landslide victory. .

Doesn't work that way in a general election though.
Lib Dems, Labour and SNP had about 3 million more votes than the Tories in 2015 but were well short of a majority. As I commented in an earlier post, the chances of the Conservatives getting the 17+ million votes that "leave" got in the referendum are v slim indeed. She will most likely get a good majority with around 13 million votes, but she will trumpet this as an endorsement of her Brexit policy, even if the opposition parties collectively get several million more.
But that's our system, and regaining the sovereignty of Parliament is one of the main reasons people voted for Brexit, so that's democracy.

Darthlaw · Post by **Darthlaw** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:59 pm

UpTheBeehole wrote:Perfect opportunity for Theresa May to tear up the election pledges Cameron made and set a truly post-brexit manifesto.

Dismantling of the NHS and selling it off to private interests
Removal of the triple lock on pensions
Expedite gerrymandering of constituency boundaries to favour the Tories
Continue underfunding state schools with fund redirection to grammar schools, and 'free' schools set up by corporate sponsors
VAT Rise
NI Rise
Forced deportation of foreigners
Blue passports (like that ******* matters)

Will WW3 and the Punishment budget happen before or after the above?

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:01 pm

I don't doubt that she's done it for part tactical reasons, though it does have the downside that there won't be time to restructure the constituency boundaries. A lot of the Tory constituencies have bigger electorates than the Labour ones, and that's due to be sorted out.

But one helpful side effect, assuming the Tories win, is that the House of Lords won't be able to stick its oar in to try and spoil any Brexit bills. Anything Brexit will become an official manifesto policy, and no longer a mere referendum result, and the Lords have no justification under the UK constitution for overturning a manifesto commitment.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:09 pm

Lancaster - I have gone very much the other way too, but is it really surprising? All of what you might call 'neo liberal' economics has been shown up to be a sham that works against the vast majority of people. The failure of trickle-down economics, mass privatisation of public assets, the use of public debt to cut spending on education, health, and public services, the use of unemployment to keep wages down, and working people nervous, and that silly belief in 'market forces' as though it's a magical fairy that must never be caged, when it's often rigged anyway. All of this is so apparent now - I mean we've had nearly two generations of practical experience of it - that few thinking people believe it any more. It's been so entrenched as a dominant ideology that anyone questioning it is still labelled as 'extreme' - but is it really 'left-wing' to question something that clearly doesn't work, or is 'it' actually becoming more extreme (resistant to evidence against it for example), as its failures such as the international banking crisis get money thrown at it like a giant sticking plaster?

BennyD · Post by **BennyD** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:11 pm

AndrewJB wrote:BennyD - what has Corbyn not opposed that you think he should have?

Becoming, and remaining, the leader of the Labour Party.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:13 pm

jurek wrote:I'd support Dyche for Prime Minister
Think he could do a good job.

I think he would be very strong at defence.

You could call it the Trident Formation

Chobulous · Post by **Chobulous** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:16 pm

SammyBoy wrote:Are you sure you're not just getting more right wing/conservative as you get older? That's apparently a thing.

Like a modern day Hamer Shawcross. Maybe you're right but I don't think so. I just don't see that there are any conviction politicians any more. Maybe that's because we just don't have the social injustice that was evident in the 60's. Everybody has a mobile phone, 40" plasma TV and ipad. We all go for our 2 weeks all inclusive in Spain or Greece.

What-ever. The Labour Party has lost it's raison d'etre and the current gobshites have now way of getting it back.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:26 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:This isn't a political point, but do you really think that the Tories will gain 60+ seats from Labour in England, and not lose any themselves?
I really can't see any Tory gains in Scotland or Wales and NI is not really part of the equation.

I'm a bit too busy today to look closely at the number of seats where a x% swing would do it, but I note Election Calculous (sp) has it as a 112 majority.

The fascinating thing for this one for a statto like myself is that the Brexit conundrum changes everything so it will make some people vote in a way they never thought possible. Who, how many and where will be fantastic to read afterwards.

For example, Labour voters tend to be further to the left of the Tories than they are further away in a internationalist / nationalist sense. So will Brexit sway them, or when it comes to it, will it not?

I suspect Corbyn is the key factor. Voting for him and voting against Brexit (in a sense) may be too much for many middle left and centre Labour folk. Quite where it will be so numerous as to lose seats though is a good question.

UpTheBeehole · Post by **UpTheBeehole** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:31 pm

Labour's fight has to be on a constituency-by-constituency basis, that has to be their best tactic.

Get away from the cult of personality which crept into politics and do it based upon a nationally good manifesto combined with local knowledge/passion.

After all, constituents are voting for their MP, not for the leader.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:32 pm

Andrew, I just want to see a fairer reorganisation of how we do things, as I can't see a viable alternative to the current capitalist system.

Just want more money to go where its needed, rather that to where it isn't.

Dom · Post by **Dom** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:45 pm

I've always been center left, but there is no way I'll vote for the current iteration of the Labour Party, they will get destroyed by the Tories. 85+ majority IMO.

May has spotted the opportunity to bury the Labour party and Corbyn. Who is there to take over and bring the labour party back into the realms of reality?

joey13 · Post by **joey13** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:51 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:I'd love to see Tiny Tim Farron right now.

He's jumped up and down like anglophobic, white flag waving surrender chimp. Huffing n puffing repeatingly going on about "it wasn't on the ballot paper. It wasn't on the ballot paper!!"

It's shown him and Sturgeon, for that matter, to be exactly what they are.

Inept, opportunistic, political pygmies.

You do realise it was May that called the election

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:54 pm

BennyD - if you feel so strongly there must be many concrete examples you can give of him not opposing the Tories properly.

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:03 pm

Dom wrote:I've always been center left, but there is no way I'll vote for the current iteration of the Labour Party, they will get destroyed by the Tories. 85+ majority IMO.

May has spotted the opportunity to bury the Labour party and Corbyn. Who is there to take over and bring the labour party back into the realms of reality?

Hopefully diane abbott

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:04 pm

ClaretMoffitt wrote:Hopefully dianne abbott

wonder if Corbyn is still sticking one up her...

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:11 pm

The only person possibly more unelectable that Diane Abbott is Jeremy Corbyn.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:13 pm

Well, I didn't see a General Election being called today. Only now catching up with the news.

Certainly a lot of studying material for the psephologists in years to come: 2015 GE, 2016 Ref, 2017 GE, plus Scotland's GE and indyref.

Theresa May is very much a "left of centre" Conservative. If you read Robert Lea's Business Commentary in the Times today you'd think TM was a leader of a 1970s Labour Party.

I guess this is one election where the Labour party, and others, won't be calling out the Tories for the Tories lack of female representation in their party.

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:14 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:The only person possibly more unelectable that Diane Abbott is Jeremy Corbyn.

Nah I'd vote for JC over her any day of the week. She really has no redeeming qualities what so ever.

quoonbeatz · Post by **quoonbeatz** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:15 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:The only person possibly more unelectable that Diane Abbott is Jeremy Corbyn.

other way round.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:20 pm

Ok, the two most unelectable politicians are Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbot?

Right_winger · Post by **Right_winger** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:21 pm

Very Clever move by May,

The Tories will gain a large majority allowing them to do what they like with Brexit without little pests meddling.

I think the SNP will certainly take a dent in Scotland, The Tories are popular in rural areas and the Lib dems will take a few seats in the far north.

It might be a hard 5 years for some ( labour voters ) but this will hasten the departure of Corbyn, or possibly force a breakaway party to form.

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:23 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Ok, the two most unelectable politicians are Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbot?

Nah, there's plenty worse than Corbyn. Abbot is pretty low down the pile but there are certainly worse. It's just she gets such a rough ride from me because she is in such a prominent position.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:48 pm

Right_winger wrote:Very Clever move by May,

The Tories will gain a large majority allowing them to do what they like with Brexit without little pests meddling.

In the short term this is true, but conversely a large majority could cause her problems, because there will remain a large number of Conservative MPs, (relatively silent at present due to the small majority), who are strongly opposed to a hard Brexit. In the absence of a proper opposition a significant number could become a real thorn in her side if Brexit negotiations aren't seen to going well. History suggests that there's nothing that unites a party like a small majority and nothing more dangerous than an apparently unassailable majority, giving back-benchers more freedom to express themselves.
Little pests in opposition parties could turn out to be no more than a mere nuisance compared to some of the "big beasts" in the Tory party, and the business world that finances them.

OdihamClaret · Post by **OdihamClaret** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:07 pm

May will get a landslide possibly to rival TB's in 97 (i.e. >150)

However, I will be voting LibDem...
Good Heavens, I really said that!

I believe TM's 'Brexit plan' (I use the term loosely), is one that will harm all our children's futures.
Therefore, to criticise her approach to Brexit when she gets back in would be hypocritical, without actively voting against that approach when given the chance.

I'm not a remoaner angling for a second referendum, even if there were a change of government. The UK need's to suck up what it voted for.

TM and her three stooges have burned every bridge of good will with the EU they could possibly have set light to. Consequently, its going to be a rough ride. It's this that I and other like minded remoaners want to do something about.

It won't happen but, in my view the only chance of change in plan is a new government implementing Brexit with a different attitude towards the current and future relationship with the EU27 which hopefully will yield a better economic outcome for all. At least, that's what my vote is going to be used for.

SammyBoy · Post by **SammyBoy** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:27 pm

What do people think of the hypothesis that when TM wins her inevitable large majority it will fill the commons with a significant number of moderate Tories, thus diluting the influence of the rabid Brexiters and also the Daily Mail that she's currently cow towing to? I'm trying to convince myself that this could be the case and we avoid hard Brexit.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:27 pm

OdihamClaret wrote:May will get a landslide possibly to rival TB's in 97 (i.e. >150)

.

Pretty unlikely according to most analysts.
Although the Tories have a large lead in the polls, most of the remaining Labour seats in England have massive majorities, and it is estimated that based on the current polls they will only lose about 30 seats. If the polls narrow then most likely less. Add to this that the Libs might pinch the odd seat from the Conservatives (following the pro-remain example in Richmond,) and there will most likely be no Tory gains in Scotland.
It's going to be very hard to predict the outcome of this one - other than a Conservative win, but an overall majority of +100 seems unlikely.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:40 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Pretty unlikely according to most analysts.
Although the Tories have a large lead in the polls, most of the remaining Labour seats in England have massive majorities, and it is estimated that based on the current polls they will only lose about 30 seats. If the polls narrow then most likely less. Add to this that the Libs might pinch the odd seat from the Conservatives (following the pro-remain example in Richmond,) and there will most likely be no Tory gains in Scotland.
It's going to be very hard to predict the outcome of this one - other than a Conservative win, but an overall majority of +100 seems unlikely.

I'm in Twickenham constituency, next door to Richmond. Twickenham used to be Vince Cable's seat. Tania Mathias, new Conservative MP is popular. I'm not certain, but it's possible she will be contesting seat with Vince Cable again (he may have retired, but I think he's said he would be available in short term). Twickenham was also very strongly "remain" last year.

I saw the local Conservative councillor on his bike around lunchtime - with a big blue rosette. At the time I thought he was starting campaigning for the council elections...

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 6:18 pm

Lib Dems on course to regain plenty of seats:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk ... -democrats" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 6:24 pm

Spijed wrote:Lib Dems on course to regain plenty of seats:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk ... -democrats" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ins't this the same rag that implied Sean Dyche was a right wing xenophobe?

BennyD · Post by **BennyD** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 6:32 pm

AndrewJB wrote:BennyD - if you feel so strongly there must be many concrete examples you can give of him not opposing the Tories properly.

To oppose the Tories is his job but that's not my issue. In my opinion, his stewardship of a party that's becoming more and more left wing is causing open warfare within their ranks. As a result, this reduces its effectiveness as the main opposition party at a time when we really need a strong one. I vehemently disagree with his politics and to me he is a sh!thead and if he didn't oppose the government, however weakly he tries, he would be an even bigger one.

HatfieldClaret · Post by **HatfieldClaret** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:03 pm

nil_desperandum wrote:Not that simple though is it? Under our FPTP system Labour, Lib Dem and other opposition parties can get 65% of the popular vote in any constituency and still be beaten by the Tories.
This is why Marine le Pen could quite easily get elected under our system but has no chance in France where she would have to get 50%+

That's because she's running for president, a post that we thankfully don't have here.

HatfieldClaret · Post by **HatfieldClaret** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:08 pm

hampsteadclaret wrote:Jesus..who to vote for...?

I believe in Brexit, but an Election is not about a single issue.

I couldn't vote Conservative if I lived until 100.

Labour normally but tragic Corbyn will lose by a mile plus the Brexit stuff..[some Labour policies are fine, tho' he is not]

UKIP / Greens - No

Liberal Democrats - a badly led bunch of 'no hope' chancers who would sell their granny if they could get a ministerial Renault Clio out of it...[tho' they may do quite well in any Election, at least in terms of votes, if not seats..a resurgence for them possibly, God forbid]

My vote is up for grabs, haven't got a clue..?

It's gonna be interesting, and it will get nasty.

So vote Conservative, don't tell anyone you did and pretend it was a bad dream; then wake up to find Corbyn resigned, Brexit going through and look forward to a new Labour party.

Simples.

USC · Post by **USC** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:14 pm

Spijed wrote:Lib Dems on course to regain plenty of seats

I'm quite sure many people will be voting based on what they want out of Brexit. And if they want to remain within single market, etc (soft Brexit) they'll be voting Lib Dem.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:32 pm

USC wrote:I'm quite sure many people will be voting based on what they want out of Brexit. And if they want to remain within single market, etc (soft Brexit) they'll be voting Lib Dem.

Lib Dems won't get more than 20 seats.

hampsteadclaret · Post by **hampsteadclaret** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:35 pm

I think the Election campaign/result may not be as clear cut as many may think.
There are many imponderables and some unpredictable things will occur.
A great deal can change/happen in 7 weeks.
I hope that the Campaign is about more than Brexit..it certainly should be..there are plenty of issues that need fixing.

Labour [Corbyn?], the LibDems,[resurgence?] UKIP, Scotland...tactical voting, dodgy election expenses, TM twice promising NO snap elections..who knows with all this stuff...maybe some BIG surprises yet to come..

The opinion polls [now and upcoming] can barely be trusted..they are often badly wrong.

At lunchtime I thought a 150 seat majority for the Tories.
I don't think that now..it is more unpredictable than that.
TM will still win, with a sound majority.

- either way, Corbyn will be gone in a few months and hopefully then Labour will put someone in charge that can help them recover substantially.

USC · Post by **USC** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:37 pm

claretandy wrote:Lib Dems won't get more than 20 seats.

Not a bad starting point for them - >100% increase!

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:06 pm

hampsteadclaret wrote:I think the Election campaign/result may not be as clear cut as many may think.
There are many imponderables and some unpredictable things will occur.
A great deal can change/happen in 7 weeks.
I hope that the Campaign is about more than Brexit..it certainly should be..there are plenty of issues that need fixing.

Labour [Corbyn?], the LibDems,[resurgence?] UKIP, Scotland...tactical voting, dodgy election expenses, TM twice promising NO snap elections..who knows with all this stuff...maybe some BIG surprises yet to come..

The opinion polls [now and upcoming] can barely be trusted..they are often badly wrong.

At lunchtime I thought a 150 seat majority for the Tories.
I don't think that now..it is more unpredictable than that.
TM will still win, with a sound majority.

- either way, Corbyn will be gone in a few months and hopefully then Labour will put someone in charge that can help them recover substantially.

There tends to be a feeling that if David Miliband becomes leader they'll recover plenty of lost ground.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:22 pm

USC wrote:Not a bad starting point for them - >100% increase!

Was going to post the same.
If the Lib Dems take 11 / 12 seats off the Conservatives, then the Conservatives will need to capture about 35 Labour seats in order to significantly increase its majority.

Rick_Muller · Post by **Rick_Muller** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:28 pm

Spijed wrote:There tends to be a feeling that if David Miliband becomes leader they'll recover plenty of lost ground.

Can they do that this week though, it would be a massive vote winner...

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:33 pm

HatfieldClaret wrote:That's because she's running for president, a post that we thankfully don't have here.

Well that's absolutely true, but the analogy relating to the FPTP system is still relevant.
FPTP system for the French Presidential election and le Pen has a good chance. But when it comes to having to get 50% + , the numbers don't add up. TM may well get a big majority and use this to claim that the "country is no longer divided", whereas in reality, the number of people voting for parties opposed to the Conservative party line on Brexit will almost certainly be greater.
(Note - I say opposed to the Conservative party line on Brexit, not Brexit itself.)

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:42 pm

Rick_Muller wrote:Can they do that this week though, it would be a massive vote winner...

One story doing the rounds is that TM called an election because Corbyn was going to quit before 2020.

I suspect if JC falls on his sword after Labour lose then the Conservatives will be a one term wonder under Teresa May. They aren't that popular, only that Jeremy Corbyn is seen as a poor leader for Labour unfortunately.

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:57 pm

Abbott and Corbyn 'unelectable'? They've been MPs for thirty and thirty-five years respectively. Corbyn was elected leader of the Labour Party by a far bigger margin than anyone in recent history. That's not 'unelectable' by any reasonable stretch.

Just as BennyD, you might not like Corbyn's politics (though apart from referring to a leftward lurch he didn't specify what exactly this leftward lurch is), but some people obviously must because he keeps getting elected.

BennyD - I take it you prefer May's pointless austerity project which has driven the UK into far more debt than Labour ever caused? Perhaps you enjoy having someone as PM who was a failure even by her own measure when she was home office minister under Cameron? Or perhaps (and I believe this is likely for more than a few people) you get told what to think by a media machine that has had it in for Corbyn ever since he became leader?

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:58 pm

joey13 wrote:You do realise it was May that called the election

Yes. And if the likes of Clegg, Clarke, Ashdown, Starmer, Tiny Tim Farron, Tony Bliar, the wealrhy , through the EU, Kinnock family and the foreign born millionairess Gina Miller, had accepted the result of brexit and not pushed for a vote on the outcome of the deal the UK got with the EU. Which would incentivise the EU to give us the worst possible deal. (Imagine doing a deal with someone at a table , knowing they're ultimately answerable to others who actually want to scupper the whole deal.)

They've brought it on themselves. They really have.

And I hope the British people give the whole self serving anti democratic treasonous lot of em, a bloody good electoral kicking!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:11 pm

You do know that's utter bilge though, yeah?

AndrewJB · Post by **AndrewJB** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:12 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:Yes. And if the likes of Clegg, Clarke, Ashdown, Starmer, Tiny Tim Farron, Tony Bliar, the wealrhy , through the EU, Kinnock family and the foreign born millionairess Gina Miller, had accepted the result of brexit and not pushed for a vote on the outcome of the deal the UK got with the EU. Which would incentivise the EU to give us the worst possible deal. (Imagine doing a deal with someone at a table , knowing they're ultimately answerable to others who actually want to scupper the whole deal.)

They've brought it on themselves. They really have.

And I hope the British people give the whole self serving anti democratic treasonous lot of em, a bloody good electoral kicking!

If Labour were in government you wouldn't be happy with them working out a deal with the EU by themselves. And this is the whole point of the matter. May insisted on holding the cards close to her chest, so it's only right that there's some sort of way for the rest of us to have oversight on the outcome.

HelloHiGoodbye · Post by **HelloHiGoodbye** » Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:15 pm

I haven't read the Daily Mail in years but I reckon it and RingoMcCartney's posts on here are identical.