Wednesday racing

[happyclaret17]

2 20 ERIK THE RED 16 BETFAIR….OASIS FANTASY 32 BETFAIR
ERIK THE RED made my notebook last season when running on 3rd over course and distance despite on the slower ground
He is a very consistent type who likes this course and has had a recent run so should be spot on.
OASIS FANTASY is having his first run for cox since switching from dunlops yard….he has a real soft ground action
Yet his old yard kept running him on fast ground…York are forecasting good or softer ground which should be perfect
First run of the season and first run for yard are both concerns but the price is juicy.

2 55 WENTWORTH FALLS 8/1 is a really progressive horse who should be backed until beaten….won from a poor draw last
Time out and only up 4 lbs…great draw today.

3 30 THE TIN MAN 13/2
Has the group 1 penalty in this but he has earned it by beating todays favourite brando….the tin man is best with some
Cut so the ground looks perfect….he won first time out last season so fitness shouldn’t be an issue.

5 05 CONSEQUENCES 5/1
The sire of this one is dandy man….they are usually best caught on debut and regress on their 2nd run.
He is the most mature 2 year old in the race and is sprint bred.

7 55 BABYFACT 7/1
Loves course and distance and fast ground…often runs against the males but this is fillies only.
Josephine Gordon gave this a great ride when winning easily on her before….the secret to the horse has been
Bath 5 ½ furlongs…fast ground and a run between 4 and 10 days….today the horse has a 12 day break
And I don’t want to get pedantic about this with so many positives.

[PaintYorkClaretnBlue]

Cheers happy, got the 8/1 on babyfact last night when you posted it. Here's to a good day!!

[happyclaret17]

hoping so pycb...although york is always tough and I have to take their going description on trust I do like todays selections and the final 4 look ideal lucky 15 prices for those liking that bet...btw...do you lot still get treble the odds for 1 winner? if so, which bookies offer that now...I know betfred used to but they were one of the first bookies to decline my custom.

[happyclaret17]

oasis fantasy is quite weak on betfair out to 45 is ....may suggest today is not the day but small stakes at that price still appeal...his price may shift later.

[claretdom]

Done an E/W lucky 15 at York

2.20 - Speed Company (1st 6 places) 11/1
2.55 - Out Do (1st 5 places) 11/1
3.30 - The Tin Man 6/1
5.35 - St Malo 6/1

[ten bellies]

LONGSIDE running at Yarmouth today. Connotations.

[UpTheBeehole]

Looking forward to a bit of cash today

[PaintYorkClaretnBlue]

hoping so pycb...although york is always tough and I have to take their going description on trust I do like todays selections and the final 4 look ideal lucky 15 prices for those liking that bet...btw...do you lot still get treble the odds for 1 winner? if so, which bookies offer that now...I know betfred used to but they were one of the first bookies to decline my custom.

I've done ew singles and a small ew Yankee on the last four. Cheers

[happyclaret17]

that horse today LONGSIDE has a hell of a knee action...every now and again you get these horses that can act on decent ground with that sort of action and he has run some reasonable races on gf but I cannot help but think he would be better with some cut or perhaps on the all weather...particularly southwell.

[FCBurnley]

When they make Ewood Park into a race course, LONGSIDE will win there for sure.

[happyclaret17]

its just setting off now

[Goobs]

Great start 40/1 on Oasis Fantasy. Small E/W has pretty much covered all of today's bets already.

Thanks Happy.

[happyclaret17]

nice 1 goobs...went as big as 80 on betfair but was 27 at the off....winner was very impressive....ground on that first race was g/s...I expect it will be soft soon and bordering on heavy by the end of the day as it is raining steadily....would expect some of the 2 year olds to be none runners later.

[PaintYorkClaretnBlue]

Wentworth falls made that look hard work, did it clip heels early on?

[happyclaret17]

not sure pycb I didnt spot that but will watch again....the ground is getting softer...perhaps he didnt appreciate it so soft....one thing I have noticed is that some horses dont act at york....it was a fiercely competitive race though....big eye catcher for me was the ryan horse with top weight...RIDE LIKE THE WIND...traveled really well in rear and spencer never got busy....almost certainly being lined up for a big sprint handicap....WOKINGHAM would be my guess....very interesting horse going forward.

[ten bellies]

Going at Bath now good/ good to soft. Concerns for Babyfact?

[Dejavu]

Wentworth falls made that look hard work, did it clip heels early on?

Yes it did straight out the stalls. Never threatened after that.

[happyclaret17]

I am concerned about babyfact....I am still timing the races to see just how soft it is...this filly has won on genuinely good ground but no softer than that...on the racingpost website last night the ground was given as 10.7 which is the firmest ground you could imagine.....they must have had a deluge today...I expected no worse than good...its a fingers crossed job for me....a friend has tipped me a horse tonight at bath...he knows the owner...the horse is IONA ISLAND in the 6 55....currently 11/4 but this is a turf maiden and I have no idea if suited by the rain....I aint backing the horse...just watching.

[happyclaret17]

I just watched wentworth falls again...he did just run up a horse backside briefly but not a big deal...for me he either didnt like the ground...poss course...the extra few pounds for that good win last time shouldnt have stopped him......he did travel well enough first 2/3rds of race but didnt pick up as you would have expected a horse traveling as well as that would do....it may come to light that he just wasnt suited by the ground.

[happyclaret17]

3rd race at bath...the time was no worse than a good ground time...happy with that if the rain has stopped which it had done when I watched that race.

[dogwith3legs]

For those interested in this weeks golf PGA event. AT&T Byron Nelson in Dallas. Dustin Johnson favorite again and a good fit here tops GIR and Driving distance and world number one. The obvious choice but I will leave 9/2 – also weather forecast is less windy than recent tournaments but thunderstorms that may disrupt things – always a leveler

S0 I do the following – not going win heavy so some fits at longer odds to win and go with top 10 and 20 place bets … 2 of any these will gain profit. Usually I like > 4/1 on the place bets but these are my picks so I go with them. Never like to have too many top 10 bets either ...

Mainly gone on players showing form and progression that have shown to be decent ball strikers and good distance off the tee

• In play bets - Every winner since 1996 has been inside the top-ten at halfway
  Not many par 5’s but 5 long par 4’s. Good ball strikers
  Wind will be a factor but don’t think quite as strong as the last few tourneys
  Considered stats for Driving Distance (DD) & Greens in Regulation (GIR)

Done below lower stakes on longer odds – odds below are mainly from Betfair and the best I could find

[colinclaret]

Great shout happy cheers just got up on the line

[Stevie2112]

Cheers,a small profit is still a profit.

[JohnMac]

Cheers Happy
Babyfact put me back level for the past week with a good win bet (as opposed to small acca's).

[PaintYorkClaretnBlue]

Cheers happy, well up today after that. Looking forward to tomorrow!!

[PaintYorkClaretnBlue]

Cheers dog.

[Stevie2112]

Cheers for the info on the golf dog.

[Westyorkclaret]

Thanks Happy - keep up the good work

[happyclaret17]

cheers all
she was hating that ground....it ended up just soft side of good...bonus is she wont get more than a 2lb penalty...another pay day from her this summer.

great work dog
going to play up my winnings from last week....utc.

[thedoge]

Boom thanks happy Babyfact .

[HankinsHeader]

Good stuff and thank you Happy !!! Enjoying your knowledge ..... keep them coming

[UTCAndrew123]

Good man happy

[ten bellies]

Cheers Happy. You know your stuff. I ended up not doing Babyfact because of the ground. My mistake. I did redeem things though with an ew bet on Waves at Bath, and a place with Johnny Go at Perth.