40 points

bartons baggage · Post by **bartons baggage** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:56 pm

That was the target,we are on course for this,wtf is the problem with some of the synthetic support that floods this forum when we get beat.
Good God maybe Rochdale away on a Tuesday night would be more appealing.

Bin Ont Turf · Post by **Bin Ont Turf** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:00 pm

The same posters posting the same things are seen every time we get beat.

fidelcastro · Post by **fidelcastro** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:00 pm

Jonny come latelys, perhaps?

Other than that, I've no idea, but I knew we'd get this as soon as people on here started talking about us qualifying for Europe.

We were over achieving, and in some of those games we were just on the right side of tight games. At present we are on the wrong side.

However, we're doing just fine overall.

UTC!

ClaretAL · Post by **ClaretAL** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:03 pm

Interesting.
I presume because i dont think 40 will be enough this season, makes me a lesser supporter and I must have only been supporting the Clarets when we are in the premier league? Just because i have an opinion which could be right or wrong?

fidelcastro · Post by **fidelcastro** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:05 pm

ClaretAL wrote:Interesting.
I presume because i dont think 40 will be enough this season, makes me a lesser supporter and I must have only been supporting the Clarets when we are in the premier league? Just because i have an opinion which could be right or wrong?

Why won't 40 be enough?

There's nothing to suggest it won't be.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:06 pm

Absolutely nothing to suggest, looking at comparable tables from previous seasons, that more than 37-38 points will be required.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:08 pm

I like digging this up. Points that the team in 18th finished with:

16/17 - 34
15/16 - 37
14/15 - 35
13/14 - 33
12/13 - 36
11/12 - 36
10/11 - 39
09/10 - 30
08/09 - 34
07/08 - 36

Bin Ont Turf · Post by **Bin Ont Turf** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:11 pm

Can I just explain why the 40 point mark is widely recognised as the number of points deemed enough to avoid relegation.

It's because no team in the history of the Money Circus League has been relegated with 40 points.

That one is to help Spijed as much as anybody.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:13 pm

Bin Ont Turf wrote:Can I just explain why the 40 point mark is widely recognised as the number of points deemed enough to avoid relegation.

It's because no team in the history of the Money Circus League has been relegated with 40 points.

That one is to help Spijed as much as anybody.

Well actually West Ham went down with 42 in 2002/03

fidelcastro · Post by **fidelcastro** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:13 pm

Bin Ont Turf wrote:Can I just explain why the 40 point mark is widely recognised as the number of points deemed enough to avoid relegation.

It's because no team in the history of the Money Circus League has been relegated with 40 points.

That one is to help Spijed as much as anybody.

I think it's ClaretAl who needs help in understanding that.

FCBurnley · Post by **FCBurnley** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:17 pm

Still a third of the season to play. Anything can happen.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:18 pm

And get this, after 27 matches West Ham had 20 points. They went onto get another 22 points in their remaining 11 matches but sill dropped!

However, in those days it was far easier for the lower teams to share the points around due to there being fewer top sides.

Bin Ont Turf · Post by **Bin Ont Turf** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:19 pm

Spijed wrote:Well actually West Ham went down with 42 in 2002/03

Sh1t. We're doomed then.

ClaretAL · Post by **ClaretAL** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:23 pm

again just an opinion, right or wrong, but this season the bottom of the league has rallied early thus condensing the league some what, to the point that this season anyone in the bottom 12 is vulnerable. so 40 may not be enough

fidelcastro · Post by **fidelcastro** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:29 pm

ClaretAL wrote:again just an opinion, right or wrong, but this season the bottom of the league has rallied early thus condensing the league some what, to the point that this season anyone in the bottom 12 is vulnerable. so 40 may not be enough

When at least twelve teams are vulnerable, it will mean that each week, these teams will be either be playing each other, or they'll be playing one of the top teams.

In the former's case, they can't both win!

In the latter's case, they're less likely to win!

Calm yourself down!

Herts Clarets · Post by **Herts Clarets** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:38 pm

No team adrift at the bottom = less points needed to stay up. We are almost safe right now.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:49 pm

To put everyone's minds at rest here are the comparable tables when Blackpool went down with 39 points. Notice that the same bunching of points is evident except it was 2-3 points higher than it is now.

ClaretAL · Post by **ClaretAL** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:14 pm

and we are dropping points against these sides already, so 6 pointers may becoming up rapid.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:29 pm

ClaretAL wrote:Interesting.
I presume because i dont think 40 will be enough this season, makes me a lesser supporter and I must have only been supporting the Clarets when we are in the premier league? Just because i have an opinion which could be right or wrong?

It doesn't make you a lesser supporter, but you are almost certainly wrong. Which is good.

Compare this season with 2002-03, the last time a team with 40 points went down. That year, the top 6 averaged 1.85 points per game; this year, they're averaging 2.05 points per game. Those 0.2 points per game, for the top 6 over 38 games, means that there are 46 fewer points available in total for the other 14 clubs to share out - just over 3 points per club over the season.

And then at the bottom, the bottom two managed just 45 points between them, just 0.59 points per game. The current bottom two are averaging 0.85 points per game, which is another 20 points taken away from the remaining 12 clubs. Almost 2 more points per club.

So based on the increased performance of the top 6 and the bottom 2, you would expect the other 12 clubs (including the third bottom) to get on average 5 points per game less than in 2002-03. Obviously it's possible, but it would be a very strange distribution.

Or if you don't like the statistics (and they tell me not everyone does!!) look at it this way. To reach 40 points, West Brom need 7 wins, Huddersfield 6, Stoke, Newcastle, Southampton, Swansea and Palace 5 each. Or smaller number of wins and add some draws. They all have 11 or 12 games left each - so they need to win almost half their games, or failing that to lose less than half of their games. Who are they going to beat? If it's each other, there's no way they can win so many because where one team wins, the other loses. They're all going to have to get some wins from the top 6 - and that isn't easy.

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:31 pm

We won't need anywhere near forty.

dsr · Post by **dsr** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:32 pm

Spijed wrote:To put everyone's minds at rest here are the comparable tables when Blackpool went down with 39 points. Notice that the same bunching of points is evident except it was 2-3 points higher than it is now.

The top 6 were even worse that year, spijed. They averaged 1.798 points per game less than the current top 6 - which means that 56 points that were shared out among the bottom 14 that year, are not available to the bottom 14 this year. Four points each.

KRBFC · Post by **KRBFC** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:33 pm

Bin Ont Turf wrote:The same posters posting the same things are seen every time we get beat.

and you were really positive following the final whistle, here's some of your comments........

''Why Sam Vokes hasn't been starting ahead of Barnes? We could do with a bit of a clear out and a new face or two up top in the summer.''

''let's hope that we (club) are going to try and move away from immobile forwards who can do a job, but really aren't good enough at this level.''

''Vokes has no variation though and is easily marked.''

KRBFC · Post by **KRBFC** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:35 pm

Bin Ont Turf wrote:Can I just explain why the 40 point mark is widely recognised as the number of points deemed enough to avoid relegation.

It's because no team in the history of the Money Circus League has been relegated with 40 points.

That one is to help Spijed as much as anybody.

Bin Ont Turf · Post by **Bin Ont Turf** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:37 pm

KRBFC wrote:and you were really positive following the final whistle, here's some of your comments........

''Why Sam Vokes hasn't been starting ahead of Barnes? We could do with a bit of a clear out and a new face or two up top in the summer.''

''let's hope that we (club) are going to try and move away from immobile forwards who can do a job, but really aren't good enough at this level.''

''Vokes has no variation though and is easily marked.''

Still struggling with English I see and why you're seen as a dickhead on this board.

KRBFC · Post by **KRBFC** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:53 pm

Bin Ont Turf wrote:Still struggling with English I see and why you're seen as a dickhead on this board.

Quite frankly I give no f##k if i'm seen as a d###head on here, the petty old men will see me as that because they disagree with my opinion on football, I hope i'm not as pathetic when I hit that age.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:56 pm

Oi! I'm not old!

Bin Ont Turf · Post by **Bin Ont Turf** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:00 pm

KRBFC wrote:Quite frankly I give no f##k if i'm seen as a d###head on here, the petty old men will see me as that because they disagree with my opinion on football, I hope i'm not as pathetic when I hit that age.

You won't get anywhere near that age if you're anything like you are on here in real life.

hampsteadclaret · Post by **hampsteadclaret** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:08 pm

- neither am I but some people I know ( not me) think you’re a clown and a dubious Burnley fan..
Don’t shoot the messenger.

jurek · Post by **jurek** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:19 pm

I feel 38 points may suffice and if we can't manage another two points
then we'd have to say we deserve to go down with probably the worst second half to a season
we've ever had or anyone else may have.

I'm pretty certain we'll win at least one more game and get a few draws if not more.

Our goal difference should be worth one point so if you look at it that way
we're almost there.

However the target should still be as many points as possible especially as every position is worth around 2m.

But we need to play to win games in more than one way and at present we don't look like winning.

Bin Ont Turf · Post by **Bin Ont Turf** » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:34 pm

hampsteadclaret wrote:- neither am I but some people I know ( not me) think you’re a clown and a dubious Burnley fan..
Don’t shoot the messenger.

Your posts are pretty horrific to decipher at the best of times.

But 'neither' you what?

And who are you replying to?

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:26 am

Spijed wrote:To put everyone's minds at rest here are the comparable tables when Blackpool went down with 39 points. Notice that the same bunching of points is evident except it was 2-3 points higher than it is now.

The scary thing about that table is that only 3 (everton west brom and stoke) hasnt been relegsted since. And almost all of them are still down now with 2 of those 3 looking set to join them.

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:42 am

Yeah.

Still, were alright. So f**k em.

jrgbfc · Post by **jrgbfc** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:14 am

Maybe we should have slightly more ambition than just aiming to scrape 40 points and finish 17th every year?

taio · Post by **taio** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:18 am

jrgbfc wrote:Maybe we should have slightly more ambition than just aiming to scrape 40 points and finish 17th every year?

Yep and i think we do.

boatshed bill · Post by **boatshed bill** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:31 am

ElectroClaret wrote:We won't need anywhere near forty.

Good.

JimmyMac'sMate · Post by **JimmyMac'sMate** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:02 am

We are safe now enjoy the rest of the season when everybody fit for next season mid table again at least what a time to be a claret utc

Claretmatt4 · Post by **Claretmatt4** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:25 am

It will be miles less than forty. There are 13 teams belows. No way 11 of them can ALL overtake us. They have to take points off each other. I think it will be 6 or 7 who could go down on 34ish points with a game or two left. The points will plateau but theres just too many teams who need to overtake us.

THEWELLERNUT70 · Post by **THEWELLERNUT70** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:29 pm

We already have enough points to secure Premier League football for next season and people still moan

Woodleyclaret · Post by **Woodleyclaret** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:14 pm

Which we will exceed with the next two homes safe by March

CnBtruntru · Post by **CnBtruntru** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:17 pm

THEWELLERNUT70 wrote:We already have enough points to secure Premier League football for next season and people still moan

I don't think they are moaning about going down, it's because we've dropped out of the Champions League slots

and it is always the same bunch, just a bunch of glory hunters.

ewanrob · Post by **ewanrob** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:11 pm

Said it before...to many decent teams down there...40 points may not be enough.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:14 pm

ewanrob wrote:Said it before...to many decent teams down there...40 points may not be enough.

Newcastle decent? First win at home since October!

ElectroClaret · Post by **ElectroClaret** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:14 pm

We'd have stayed up last season if we'd only got 34 points.

What makes you think it'll be hugely different this time, ewanrob?

fidelcastro · Post by **fidelcastro** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:15 pm

ewanrob wrote:Said it before...to many decent teams down there...40 points may not be enough.

ewanrob · Post by **ewanrob** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:21 pm

Maybe...but like Huddersfield a real performance...its how they played. If Swansea can get 14pts from 7 games given where they were, then nothing is impossible.

Not picking at us....it is what it is, given the injuries and size / quality of squad. But i really think its gonna be a
record points haul for the relegation spots.

Dy1geo · Post by **Dy1geo** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:22 pm

After 27 matches last season we were on 31 points with 18th on 22 points. This year we are on 36 points with 18th Southampton who have on played 26 matches on 26. I think it will be 40 points for safety this season. We will get more than 40 and if we can get a positive result against Southampton and we should as we are at home we are 7th and they are 18th and “the table never lies”, I can see us pushing on to get over 50 points with home games against Brighton and Bournemouth to come.

ewanrob · Post by **ewanrob** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:27 pm

You'd think the likes of stoke ston and wba have to come good given the quality they have....11games to go.. a lot of teams now 4 wins + a draw away from 40...we will see.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:28 pm

ewanrob wrote:Maybe...but like Huddersfield a real performance...its how they played. If Swansea can get 14pts from 7 games given where they were, then nothing is impossible.

Not picking at us....it is what it is, given the injuries and size / quality of squad. But i really think its gonna be a
record points haul for the relegation spots.

But that has to mean Huddersfield, Brighton, Newcastle, Southampton, Palace, Swansea etc ALL have to do better than they have done currently, assuming Stoke and West Brom are down, for example.

One or two teams can go on a good run, but what happens when they start to play each other?

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:29 pm

Nobody has any idea of how many points will be enough and looking at past seasons doesn't in any way give you the answer because it really is unquantifiable at this stage. What I will say is that if we still haven't reached 40 points in another 10 games I'll be cornering the market in bog roll and if we're still on 36 my wife will be removing all my shoelaces and hiding the scissors. IF we're going to get another 5 or 6 points I just wish we'd bloody well get on with it!

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:36 pm

At least we've been able to win when we have to.