Official Brexit impact papers released

[Sidney1st]

Please tell me you are trolling now.

Nope, I am however done with this thread because it's going down the usual route of name calling and that's before RIngo even gets started.

When they can factually prove the outcome of Brexit you'll find more people willing to listen, studies, opinion's or guesses won't get people listening.

[RingoMcCartney]

Course it does, because you don't agree with it.

I'm fine with people voting leave, I'm not fine with people telling me that everyone voted for a UKIP brexit, because nothing supports that.

"I'm fine with people VOTING Leave"

You talk as though the voting is in the the present tense. You do realise that the referendum has taken place and not on going don't you!?

Let it go lancs. This ceaseless clinging on to the past, can't be good for you and Remoaners like you.

You lost get over it.

But enjoy another communal Remoaner whine fest. But like Sid, I'm out.

[Devils_Advocate]

This thread could be interesting if Sid buggers off and doesn't derail it with his endless whataboutery and kindergarten logic

[nil_desperandum]

Actually mate without checking I'm pretty sure that Denmark left some years ago and they are fine.

It appears that some people will now actually say anything - even if it has no basis whatsoever, if they think it will support their brexit view.
I know it's becoming increasingly difficult to find facts that support leaving the EU, but simply making stuff up , and expecting people to let it pass without challenging it is just ridiculous.
Denmark is amongst the most pro- EU nations in Europe and - apparently - support for the EU there has increased by over 10% since the UK's decision to exit. This is contrary to what optimistic "leavers" predicted would happen. (i.e. "the EU is on the verge of collapse and other countries will follow our lead". That was always pure fantasy. The Eurozone is doing far better than us at present).

[JohnMcGreal]

Nope, I am however done with this thread because it's going down the usual route of name calling and that's before RIngo even gets started.

When they can factually prove the outcome of Brexit you'll find more people willing to listen, studies, opinion's or guesses won't get people listening.

Which is your long-winded way of saying you're sticking your fingers in your ears and refusing to acknowledge any evidence that might suggest Brexit will be a bad thing. Fair enough, that's your choice.

[nil_desperandum]

"

But enjoy another communal Remoaner whine fest. But like Sid, I'm out.

I'm willing to bet - you're not!

[quoonbeatz]

The House is full of remainers for a start.

there's been a general election since the referendum, the perfect opportunity to oust the remainers and get the brexiters in.

wonder why that didn't happen?

[Sidney1st]

Which is your long-winded way of saying you're sticking your fingers in your ears and refusing to acknowledge any evidence that might suggest Brexit will be a bad thing. Fair enough, that's your choice.

ah brilliant.

I'll read what's out there and come to my own opinion.
I'm neither against or for Brexit, whatever happens will happen, like the majority of people I don't know for a fact that we will be better off staying or leaving, difference is I'm willing to see what happens.

Now I really am done with this until the next thread next week, unless you want to quote me again and accuse me of something else that's pure ********?

[ClaretAndJew]

My sandals are increasingly gluing themselves to my feet.

[JohnMcGreal]

I'll read what's out there and come to my own opinion.

Why bother? It's all just guesswork anyway, isn't it?

I'm neither against or for Brexit

For someone who is neutral, you sure make a lot of arguments in favour of Brexit, and very few (if any) arguments against it.

[SammyBoy]

This essentially boils down again to the central theme of the last two years. Brexit is forecast to be disastrous for the UK economy, leave voters don't care no matter what the evidence or who's presenting it, any change of mind now would be a blow to personal pride as much as anything else. Personally I've accepted Brexit is going to happen, if the remain side can lessen the impact by campaigning and increasing pressure on politicians then great. Who knows, perhaps Brexit could be a watershed moment for this country? If it's the shambles it's predicted to be then it might herald a new era of rationality and progress, led by a generation guarded against the consequences of jingoistic nationalism that flies in the face of evidence.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Thanks Lancs. I wouldn't have spotted that set of papers. I agree Brexit is (a little) bad economically but feel it will improve lives non-economically.

Section 14 is interesting, a FTA type deal knocking over 4% off "GDP per capita" (per capita is crucial, GDP on it's own is totally irrelevant which is a shame the brainless media push it so much). That is in the context of overall growth of 20%+, so we have a clear reduction but still consistent growth, for a FTA deal and even a WTO option. That seems reasonably accurate, far from a disaster and miles better than a recession or other major blip, and with a chance to offset it. All I ask is that this context is always kept in mind rather than forecasting armageddon.

One area I would offset it with is overseas aid - there is a good argument for using that pot to offset short term difficulties inside our country because our own citizens are the top priority, it's hard to justify paying Oxfam huge sums when we have people using food banks. The lefties get up in arms about this but there are billions of people in need around the world, we can't afford to let too many into the UK nor can we afford to help them too much financially, we should do what we can compassionately while keeping our own house in order.

The second interesting thing I spotted is the risk to my own business, with services restrictions applying on consultancy straddling the border. I have done a lot of work with the health sector in the RoI and potentially more in Northern Europe coming up, but this example of protectionism and anti-free trade does nothing to persuade me to change my vote. Public services should always procure the best people to help deliver value, whichever country they are from, shame the EU bans this or as a minimum makes it hellishly difficult. It reminds me this is a nasty cartel that doesn't serve it's citizens needs very well.

Finally, an observation on the chief cherry picker extraordinaire, Mr Tusk, with his request for our fisheries to continue to be freely accessible. Of course, countries like Spain, France, Netherlands, Portugal etc view fishing with an almost fanatical passion so he has to push for this. We similarly have to refuse. It is a great chance to redevelop all our coastal communities and a great chance for the Tories (that they will pass up no doubt) to lock down the votes in all these areas. Anyway, it's good of Tusk to acknowledge that we are all entitled to cherry pick, that is of course negotiation, and it should now stop the daft voices claiming May shouldn't try.

We should of course negotiate, but red lines MUST stay red, or eventually, the people will roar with an even louder voice, and we don't want that. Anybody who thinks it's Remainer roars that count should check the polling on centre-left social democratic parties which has plummeted in 10 years around western and northern Europe. Those people no longer are the key voices.

[Tall Paul]

This thread could be interesting if Sid buggers off and doesn't derail it with his endless whataboutery and kindergarten logic

But Sid hasn't posted in lots of threads that have turned out to be boring before.

[Foshiznik]

Anyone fancy a reasoned and balanced debate without the name calling? There are clearly knowledgeable people on both sides in this thread so can't we all agree that abusing the other side isn't going to accomplish anything other than turning this thread into yet another dark pit of steaming ****?

[Devils_Advocate]

But Sid hasn't posted in lots of threads that have turned out to be boring before.

Not sure what relevance your comment has to my post???

[ClaretCliff]

It appears that some people will now actually say anything - even if it has no basis whatsoever, if they think it will support their brexit view.
I know it's becoming increasingly difficult to find facts that support leaving the EU, but simply making stuff up , and expecting people to let it pass without challenging it is just ridiculous.
Denmark is amongst the most pro- EU nations in Europe and - apparently - support for the EU there has increased by over 10% since the UK's decision to exit. This is contrary to what optimistic "leavers" predicted would happen. (i.e. "the EU is on the verge of collapse and other countries will follow our lead". That was always pure fantasy. The Eurozone is doing far better than us at present).

The statement that Denmark has left the EU is not, in fact, entirely untrue. Greenland was part of Denmark when Denmark joined, but when it became independent it left. So part of Denmark has indeed left the EU, and is fine.

[Bin Ont Turf]

My sandals are increasingly gluing themselves to my feet.

John McGreal likes to throw his at people.

[claretandy]

You just wait, the polls will show anytime now that the country has realized that we were all duped and lied to, except the polls haven't changed and most people are just getting on with their lives and expect the government to get on with brexit.

[Lancasterclaret]

And I could guess who started the thread without even looking.

It also includes words that I only seem to hear being quoted by foreseers of doom, such as the Apprentice Alastair Campbell who started this thread. "BLUE PASSPORTS". You could play a game of bingo on these threads and get a full house off Lancaster alone.

or you could just ignore the thread, which is what I do when its full of stuff I'm not interesting in.

[Lancasterclaret]

Personal attacks, name calling

Its all there

I'd be more interested in hearing some sort of facts are how Brexit benefits the country, but all I get is white, middle aged men telling me how crap it is now, not how all these changes are going to make it better.

There must be something that we can all agree is going to get better?

[nil_desperandum]

The statement that Denmark has left the EU is not, in fact, entirely untrue. Greenland was part of Denmark when Denmark joined, but when it became independent it left. So part of Denmark has indeed left the EU, and is fine.

Without actually checking the details, you are correct but also contradict yourself.
Greenland was part of the EU when it was part of Denmark, but a few years after gaining independence it decided to leave the EU. The country was then an independent state - Greenland, so no part of Denmark has in fact left the EU.
On the topic however, and again without having time o check details, I think that Greenland negotiated a deal with the EU by which their citizens remain citizens of the EU, and they are aligned in many areas, and respect most EU treaties. This isn't the sort of brexit that most hardline brexiteers voted for.

[nil_desperandum]

You just wait, the polls will show anytime now that the country has realized that we were all duped and lied to, except the polls haven't changed and most people are just getting on with their lives and expect the government to get on with brexit.

Which polls haven't changed?
The main poll that counts is that Theresa May lost her Brexit gamble at the general election , and opinion polls, (which I grant you could be wrong), continually point to a remain majority if there was a vote tomorrow.
If it wasn't for the fact that the polls have shifted, why would the "leavers" be so opposed to a vote to ratify the final deal?
If there remained a majority for brexit at any cost then they would surely welcome a vote on the issue to put it to bed once and for all?

[aggi]

I'm prepared to accept that there may be some bias in the impact reports. But there are a lot of them, including those prepared for the US market, predicting very similar things (namely the economy will grow but it will be much slower than most other developed economies or if we'd remained in the EU, WTO will be worst, EEA will be best) which I'd view as an indicator.

Out of curiosity, can anyone point me in the direction of studies with a positive economic impact for Brexit (actual academic reports, not the Sun fundamentally misunderstanding how tariffs work to try and pretend that food prices would go down)? I'd have thought that there should be some but I can't remember seeing anything.

I understand that for people like RIngo, who has made it clear that he's willing to suffer an economic impact for Brexit (which is fair enough that he's willing to admit it), they wouldn't be particularly important but I'm surprised that there aren't more pragmatic Brexiteers trying to present actual economic arguments with some form of evidence.

[Imploding Turtle]

It's fine for someone to go against the result because it would suit the remain side to do so.

How about we just do what's so ******* obviously best for the country and not make these poisonous arguments?

[houseboy]

Are you sure?

Actually I'm partially wrong. They are a member of the EU but they have a whole raft of opt outs: security and defence, citizenship, police and justice and the Euro. It looks like they have what we could call a 'soft' version of membership so apologies, yes they are members. Just.

[Bordeauxclaret]

But Sid hasn't posted in lots of threads that have turned out to be boring before.

You’d do well to find one. Boring or not.

[houseboy]

It appears that some people will now actually say anything - even if it has no basis whatsoever, if they think it will support their brexit view.
I know it's becoming increasingly difficult to find facts that support leaving the EU, but simply making stuff up , and expecting people to let it pass without challenging it is just ridiculous.
Denmark is amongst the most pro- EU nations in Europe and - apparently - support for the EU there has increased by over 10% since the UK's decision to exit. This is contrary to what optimistic "leavers" predicted would happen. (i.e. "the EU is on the verge of collapse and other countries will follow our lead". That was always pure fantasy. The Eurozone is doing far better than us at present).

Actually I have just replied to someone else on this. I am not saying anything 'if they think it will support their brexit view'. It is what I have always believed but yes they are members. They are hardly the most pro EU country as you state though and this is what lead me to believe they had left, wrongly I admit, they have a whole raft of opt-outs: security and defence, citizenship, police and justice and the Euro. Hardly the most 'pro-European' stance is it? So you're statement is a bit like mine, part right and part wrong, but as a remainer you of course won't admit that.

[houseboy]

there's been a general election since the referendum, the perfect opportunity to oust the remainers and get the brexiters in.

wonder why that didn't happen?

Simple really, the election wasn't about brexit, it was about who runs the country for the next 4-5 years. Nothing more nothing less. I am a brexit supporter but also a Labour supporter, I wouldn't vote Tory on a single issue like brexit and most people are the same, they will vote the way they would normally vote, mostly.

[Sidney1st]

You’d do well to find one. Boring or not.

I'm confused by this comment.

Would you like me to comment less on this forum as a whole?
I can do that if it makes you happy, I'm in the process of getting to know twitter, so I can always go play on there instead of here, it isn't a major issue for me.

[houseboy]

Anyone fancy a reasoned and balanced debate without the name calling? There are clearly knowledgeable people on both sides in this thread so can't we all agree that abusing the other side isn't going to accomplish anything other than turning this thread into yet another dark pit of steaming ****?

I try normally try not to get involved with Brexit arguments for that very reason. Both sides are very entrenched and I don't think anything is going to change anybody's mind, it has even split families. I've got involved in this today because.....well I don't know why really, but it is all very pointless I suppose. Debate is fine but this on-going argument about Brexit in this country is as bad as the arguments between the government and the EU. There are lies and counter lies, scare-mongering on both sides and both sides will pick up on any piece of information to support their argument or put the others down. My reason for opting out was simply down to the fact that I campaigned against joining in the first place and saw nothing whatsoever in the following 40 odd years to change that view.
It is my belief that there will be some teething problems when we leave but that they will eventually disappear and everyone will be left wondering what all the fuss was about.
Of course I could be wrong.

[nil_desperandum]

They are hardly the most pro EU country as you state though and this is what lead me to believe they had left, wrongly I admit, they have a whole raft of opt-outs: security and defence, citizenship, police and justice and the Euro. Hardly the most 'pro-European' stance is it? So you're statement is a bit like mine, part right and part wrong, but as a remainer you of course won't admit that.

You're right I won't admit it, although I could perhaps have worded it better!
Denmark's relationship with the EU is in fact very similar to the one that the UK has in respect of opt-outs and not being in the Euro, but the difference is that 60% of Danes are said to be very happy with this and the majority is increasing, whereas a majority in the UK are not so happy.
Even a lot of remainers wouldn't claim to be "happy" with our current EU relationship - myself included, but the Danes apparently are, so yes they are very pro the EU but do not favour further integration. They will miss us as allies.

[aggi]

Actually I'm partially wrong. They are a member of the EU but they have a whole raft of opt outs: security and defence, citizenship, police and justice and the Euro. It looks like they have what we could call a 'soft' version of membership so apologies, yes they are members. Just.

Their opt-outs have probably less impact than the opt-outs that the UK has from the EU (UK has four opt-outs {the most unsurprisingly}, Denmark has three) so describing them as just about members is a bit disingenuous.

[upanatem]

I haven't time to read through the report as I'm busy at work. But could someone who has read it please tell me how much has been factored in for new deals done with other countries?

[nil_desperandum]

Simple really, the election wasn't about brexit, it was about who runs the country for the next 4-5 years. Nothing more nothing less. I am a brexit supporter but also a Labour supporter, I wouldn't vote Tory on a single issue like brexit and most people are the same, they will vote the way they would normally vote, mostly.

But didn't Mrs May say - this is to give me a mandate for Brexit, or very similar words? Wasn't that the reason she gave for calling the election?
She got the answer in the Tory marginals.
(My apologies - houseboy - if I appear to be stalking you. It's just that I am disagreeing - in a friendly sort of way with a couple of your recent posts!
Much of what you have put I agree with).

[claretandy]

Which polls haven't changed?
The main poll that counts is that Theresa May lost her Brexit gamble at the general election , and opinion polls, (which I grant you could be wrong), continually point to a remain majority if there was a vote tomorrow.
If it wasn't for the fact that the polls have shifted, why would the "leavers" be so opposed to a vote to ratify the final deal?
If there remained a majority for brexit at any cost then they would surely welcome a vote on the issue to put it to bed once and for all?

I've no problem with a vote on the deal, Remain should be miles ahead, the latest poll had them 1 point ahead, so even less that leaves 4 point win.

[Inchy]

Labour supporters won’t accept or admit previous labour government failures




Sorry, just thought I would get that in before Sidney

[Sidney1st]

Labour supporters won’t accept or admit previous labour government failures




Sorry, just thought I would get that in before Sidney

Tories are just the same if it makes you feel better.

[nil_desperandum]

I've no problem with a vote on the deal, Remain should be miles ahead, the latest poll had them 1 point ahead, so even less that leaves 4 point win.

I'm afraid I don't understand what you have written there, but I'm glad you aren't against a vote on the final deal.

[quoonbeatz]

Simple really, the election wasn't about brexit, it was about who runs the country for the next 4-5 years. Nothing more nothing less. I am a brexit supporter but also a Labour supporter, I wouldn't vote Tory on a single issue like brexit and most people are the same, they will vote the way they would normally vote, mostly.

no i know, i'm just stirring the old pot

interesting though that the tories made it mostly about brexit, indeed that was the reason they called the election, yet the result suggested there isn't quite the appetite for their version of brexit that they'd hoped.

[Sidney1st]

Part of the reason I suspect for the election was the number of people making a point about May not being an elected leader.
Sturgeon being an example.

Easier to deal with people when you're an elected leader instead of getting it by default.

[ClaretMoffitt]

I don't want to get drawn I to a Brexit thread but I will just pop in to say what I have always maintained.

People didn't vote for Brexit because they thought it would make them richer (certainly not short term) nor was their motivation economy oriented.

They voted for Brexit because they wanted three things, one; fundamental change, two; a stronger sense of national identity and three; quite frankly to give the metropolitan sorts the biggest kick up the arse in a generation.

Everyone who put a cross in the leave box was prepared to take the hit for what they believe was in the national long term interest of the people of this country. Rightly or wrongly as however it turns out to be.

[Lancasterclaret]

I get all that CM, but long term how does kicking the metropolitian elite help Burnley and East Lancs?

Even allowing for some leeway in the studies, you are looking at a 6-10% drop in the economy of the area. How the hell is that good for anyone?

[ngsobob]

I'm amused by the constant complaining by the losing side. Post 18

If we Brexit, we're all on the losing side.

[Taffy on the wing]

It's time to put people first again! Fix the NHS and education system. Invest in rail and other transit systems. Re-Nationalise if necessary!
" Corporations first just doesn't work."
People deserve the chance at a happy & healthy life, right now if you're not born wealthy it's out of reach.
Jeremy Corbyn will get Britain back on the right path!

[Sidney1st]

OK who let the communist on here?

[halfmanhalfbiscuit]

I think I'm right in saying that there's two types of referendum. An advisory referendum, and a mandatory referendum. In this instance it's an Advisory one.
In other European countries a referendum would be legally binding, in the UK this isn't the case as we don't have a codified constitution.

I'm only saying this as I get really sick of people talking about remainers being bad losers. Like we're talking about a game of darts.

[nil_desperandum]

.... quite frankly to give the metropolitan sorts the biggest kick up the arse in a generation.
.

This is the bit that always baffles me. How can giving power to the likes of Johnson, Farage, Redwood, Jenkin, etc.and setting us up as some kind of offshore tax haven be giving the elite a good kicking?
Yes, there are some of your "metropolitan elite" amongst the remainers, but also a lot of solid, reliable people, inc. many MPs from working class backgrounds, the Trades Unions and (of course) a majority of Labour voters.
Do you seriously think Johnson and Farage did this to give themselves a kick up the arse? (They'll no doubt prosper whatever the outcome).

[nil_desperandum]

I think I'm right in saying that there's two types of referendum. An advisory referendum, and a mandatory referendum. In this instance it's an Advisory one.

You're quite correct and it is recorded in Hansard as such.

[bfcjg]

I don't think it will happen. There will be an election which will delay it . MPs will vote down the deal and off we go again.

[claretandy]

Treacherous Labour colluding with the EU according to a leaked press release.