Official Brexit impact papers released

[claretandy]

I'm afraid I don't understand what you have written there, but I'm glad you aren't against a vote on the final deal.

The latest brexit poll had remain 45 leave 44, my point is remain should be 20 points ahead by now.

[Lancasterclaret]

Glad you agree that its a total disaster at least.

I haven't seen the latest poll, but they do appear to be voting on party lines.

[nil_desperandum]

Treacherous Labour colluding with the EU according to a leaked press release.

If -as the final paragraph states - it is backed by Parliament, how can it be treacherous?
And if not backed by Parliament then it would be a non-starter.
Mrs May went to the country and wasn't given the mandate she sought for the so called "hard brexit"
Leaving the EU but entering into some form of Customs Union is - most likely - the majority view now, especially as no one has come up with any other viable solution for the NI border question.

[Lancasterclaret]

Its from Guido Fawkes

Its the job of politicians to talk.

Its the job of the government to talk to the EU. As the government are not doing that, then someone has to try to sort this out.

[halfmanhalfbiscuit]

So with all things taken into account the referendum was little other than an opinion poll?

[Damo]

To summarise the thread
Wishing the elderly were dead.
Brexiteers are stupid
Opinions are factual (remain) or nonsense (pro brexit)
People only voted Brexit because the bus told them to
Racists
Blue passports
Did I miss anything?

[claretandy]

To summarise the thread
Wishing the elderly were dead.
Brexiteers are stupid
Opinions are factual (remain) or nonsense (pro brexit)
People only voted Brexit because the bus told them to
Racists
Blue passports
Did I miss anything?

Fish !

[claretandy]

Glad you agree that its a total disaster at least.

I haven't seen the latest poll, but they do appear to be voting on party lines.

I meant according to the remoaners remain should be 20 points ahead, but the aren't, and won't ever be.

[halfmanhalfbiscuit]

To summarise the thread
Wishing the elderly were dead.
Brexiteers are stupid
Opinions are factual (remain) or nonsense (pro brexit)
People only voted Brexit because the bus told them to
Racists
Blue passports
Did I miss anything?

We send the EU £350 million a week - Let's fund our NHS instead - Vote leave.

[Devils_Advocate]

Hooray the right wing racist snowflakes have arrived!!

[halfmanhalfbiscuit]

And just for fun...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0ktojE6WQA" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Herts Clarets]

or you could just ignore the thread, which is what I do when its full of stuff I'm not interesting in.

I didn't say i wasn't interested. I just passed comment on the frequency and doom laden nature of your Brexit threads and constant references to 'Blue Passports'.

The truth is no one knows whether the arbingers of doom or the it will be the best thing to happen to this country brigade are right. The likelihood is that it will be somewhere in the middle. There will be ups. There will be downs. Swings and roundabouts. Life will go on.

[Greenmile]

I don't want to get drawn I to a Brexit thread but I will just pop in to say what I have always maintained.

People didn't vote for Brexit because they thought it would make them richer (certainly not short term) nor was their motivation economy oriented.

They voted for Brexit because they wanted three things, one; fundamental change, two; a stronger sense of national identity and three; quite frankly to give the metropolitan sorts the biggest kick up the arse in a generation.

Everyone who put a cross in the leave box was prepared to take the hit for what they believe was in the national long term interest of the people of this country. Rightly or wrongly as however it turns out to be.

I’m sure that’s what you and a good few others voted for, but you really can’t claim to know what “everyone who put a cross in the leave box” was thinking.

[Lancasterclaret]

Without any evidence to prove otherwise Herts, I'm listening to a lot of people who know what they are talking about.

Thats why I'm worried.

[CrosspoolClarets]

I get all that CM, but long term how does kicking the metropolitian elite help Burnley and East Lancs?

Even allowing for some leeway in the studies, you are looking at a 6-10% drop in the economy of the area. How the hell is that good for anyone?

I have several more observations now I have read through all those slides, and Lancs comment above contains two of the issues I would challenge:

1. The 2nd slide states “a number of factors make the analysis highly uncertain”.
2. Accountants have to exercise prudence. I am one. Economists have a similar obligation. I’m one of those too. Combine highly uncertain with prudence and I know which side I would bet the reality falls on.
3. Nowhere is there contingency such as increasing the deficit rather than allowing GDP limitations to trickle down to the man in the street.
4. The economic model is a Computable General Equilibrium model, which some of us discredit (not as much as the gravity model used in the pre referendum Treasury analysis but I see they have retained a gravity element to any regional impact which I thus discredit). Happy to debate with anyone why this model is accurate or inaccurate. None of these models value change in a positive light but in the real world change can be.
5. Lancs says above a completely inaccurate statement, no offence. “a 6-10% drop in the economy of the area” whereas actually it is reasonable growth, just not as much as it would have been. People should still feel richer, all other things being equal.
6. The paper seems to be leaning towards EEA style mitigation, but that would be a sell out on migration. It would be a mistake of unprecedented proportions in our generation.

Can I just say that HMG have talked about some of the above concerns in the slides, so credit to them for honesty. I just doubt accuracy. If I was doing it, I doubt I would have been accurate either. It’s verging on impossible.

Finally, Lancs also asks how kicking the metropolitan elite helps East Lancs. Well, are these statements true:

a) do the metropolitan elite give two hoots about East Lancs people? Well, look at girls in Rotherham and there is the answer to that one.
b) did the metropolitan elite feel pre referendum that nobody in East Lancs could affect them, in that Parliament is now a meritocracy (95% of MPs have a degree) and is mainly constituted of said metropolitan elite?

If the answer is “yes” to these, Brexit is a roar that will make these sit up and take notice. Expect now many policies targeted at East Lancs and the things many people there want - infrastructure, wider Parliamentary representation (i.e. a wider skill set and experience range), inequality spending, public sector investment, migration curbs, globalisation curbs, reining in extreme liberalism etc.

My prediction is a massive boost to East Lancs quality of life, but (to use the prevailing trend) against the context of a gradual worsening of that quality year after year, so overall life may still feel naff, not just as naff as it would.

Brexit remains the best thing to happen to the UK in a generation, have no fear. I’m neither left or right wing, liberal nor conservative, rich or poor. I’m pretty much in the middle of every spectrum, and I’m confident it was something that had to be done

[Lancasterclaret]

You know a lot more about the economic modelling than I do so I am not going to challenge you on that, though I would say that 1,000s of economists and accountants would (and have) disagree most strongly with your analysis.

I have to pick you up on this being a wake up call for the government in the deprived/struggling parts of the country though.

It didn't change under Lab, or Lib, or Con. Why its suddenly going to change when we will be struggling for cash (even you have admitted that there will be effects) is something that I can't let go unchallenged.

It goes without saying though I hope you are right, but everything I know and have read suggests completely the opposite.

[halfmanhalfbiscuit]

CrosspoolClarets, or anyone else.
I'm a pretty pragmatic type of person, I have a couple of questions.
My first one is dead simple, it's about food.
The UK is not able to feed itself. More than two-thirds of the land needed to produce the UK’s food and feed is based abroad.
Why do we feel we'll be able to negotiate a more favourable deal on foodstuffs once out of the EU?

[Greenmile]

Who exactly are “the metropolitan elite”? In my mind the words conjure up people like Boris, Farage (underneath the man of the people, fag-and-a-pint schtick), and Rees-Mogg, but I must be wrong given some of the comments here.

Can we define any shared characteristics of the metropolitan elite? eg do they all live in London? Earn a certain wage? Vote a certain way even?

I’d be genuinely interested in anyone could help me pin this term down a bit. I’ve seen it thrown about quite a bit over the last couple of years, and I don’t think I know what it means.

[halfmanhalfbiscuit]

Who exactly are “the metropolitan elite”? In my mind the words conjure up people like Boris, Farage (underneath the man of the people, fag-and-a-pint schtick), and Rees-Mogg, but I must be wrong given some of the comments here.

Can we define any shared characteristics of the metropolitan elite? eg do they all live in London? Earn a certain wage? Vote a certain way even?

I’d be genuinely interested in anyone could help me pin this term down a bit. I’ve seen it thrown about quite a bit over the last couple of years, and I don’t think I know what it means.

It's not Boris or Farage.
It's people left of centre who have a few bob.

[CrosspoolClarets]

You know a lot more about the economic modelling than I do so I am not going to challenge you on that, though I would say that 1,000s of economists and accountants would (and have) disagree most strongly with your analysis.

I have to pick you up on this being a wake up call for the government in the deprived/struggling parts of the country though.

It didn't change under Lab, or Lib, or Con. Why its suddenly going to change when we will be struggling for cash (even you have admitted that there will be effects) is something that I can't let go unchallenged.

It goes without saying though I hope you are right, but everything I know and have read suggests completely the opposite.

Which analysis in particular? I have mainly just stated the facts of what the document is saying. I’ve also just removed a comment I made about a lack of regional analysis, I just spotted it.

Policies will change because people have been ignored for a generation. Across Europe tens of millions are now screaming that the EU made a horrendous series of errors, particularly around opening borders to Eastern Europe with unfettered migration. Whether or not you agree, or whether you feel those changes have benefitted the fabric of UK culture, it feels that populism is a genie out of the bottle and that it won’t now go back in. Populism here is pro Brexit and pro young socialism - two different types. I expect both to hold much more sway in the coming decade. Governments simply cannot ignore people this much - voters are like pendulums, when it swings too far one way, it then swings as far or more in the other direction as a reflex action. For Burnley, it simply couldn’t carry on as it has been, which was only in one direction. Change was needed, now the town has to grab it and make it’s voice heard.

[cblantfanclub]

Agree green mile love to have it spelt out.

[Lancasterclaret]

"Metropolitan elite" are anyone who has more cash than the person saying it.

Under a Labour government under Corbyn Crosspool, then yeah I can understand why you would think that.

Under a conservative one? Not a scooby I'm afraid. Might get an "east lancs economic think tank" (based in somewhere like Aldershot) though.

[Taffy on the wing]

My "like" of the halfmanhalfbiscuit post was a miss-click!

And Sidney 'know it all' first You wouldn't know a communist if one bit you on the ass!
Your idea about buggering off to Twitter is a good one!

[Damo]

Hooray the right wing racist snowflakes have arrived!!

To summarise the thread
Wishing the elderly were dead.
Brexiteers are stupid
Opinions are factual (remain) or nonsense (pro brexit)
People only voted Brexit because the bus told them to
Racists 
Blue passports
Did I miss anything?
Someone easily offended, calling other people snowflakes.
That must be everything covered?

[Devils_Advocate]

Someone easily offended, calling other people snowflakes.

Even having a pop at Claretandy now and I thought you two were on the same side

[halfmanhalfbiscuit]

My "like" of the halfmanhalfbiscuit post was a miss-click!

And Sidney 'know it all' first You wouldn't know a communist if one bit you on the ass!
Your idea about buggering off to Twitter is a good one!

Taffy, I don't think it was that unlikeable. Just highlighting a breathtaking lie that Farage did a u-turn on about twenty minutes after the votes came in.

[Damo]

Even having a pop at Claretandy now and I thought you two were on the same side

Fellow clarets you mean?

[Devils_Advocate]

Fellow clarets you mean?

Nope not what I meant

[Damo]

Nope not what I meant

What did you mean then? Fellow racists?

[BleedingClaret]

How far back do we need to go bleeding?

And how do we do it?

Time have changed, and much more importantly, the world has changed.

Back to the point where Thatcher thought that we could be the shopkeepers of the world, that everyone else would use their natural resources, pollute their lands and labour on to exhaustion and then sell to us for a pittance, for all eternity.
So we return to manufacturing.

Up to the point where we think Financial institutions set up primarily to gamble by a posher name were a safe bet.
Purposely restricting housing so the inflated prices could be used to generate collateral and then when it ends as gambling invariably does we don’t bail out crooks.

We don’t let that start again, the perpetrators are addicted to the quick buck and were bailed out last time so win win, but not for the general populous.

[Sidney1st]

My "like" of the halfmanhalfbiscuit post was a miss-click!

And Sidney 'know it all' first You wouldn't know a communist if one bit you on the ass!
Your idea about buggering off to Twitter is a good one!

Tip from the know it all, to take a like off a post just click like again.

I think I will because it means I don't have to put up with some of the people on here who get upset and start calling me names

Have fun and maybe get yourself a sense of humour you miserable sod.

[Devils_Advocate]

What did you mean then? Fellow racists?

Not really Claretandy comes across as a scumbag racist but dont think you are. Your outlook on humanity and moral compass is what comes across as being pitifully similar to your pal but hopefully its just down to a bit of ignorance and lack of intelligence and not deliberate hate.

[Damo]

Not really Claretandy comes across as a scumbag racist but dont think you are. Your outlook on humanity and moral compass is what comes across as being pitifully similar to your pal but hopefully its just down to a bit of ignorance and lack of intelligence and not deliberate hate.

Do you base that on me voting leave? Or is there something else that makes you think like that?

[Sidney1st]

I think it's a default setting for some on here.

[CrosspoolClarets]

CrosspoolClarets, or anyone else.
I'm a pretty pragmatic type of person, I have a couple of questions.
My first one is dead simple, it's about food.
The UK is not able to feed itself. More than two-thirds of the land needed to produce the UK’s food and feed is based abroad.
Why do we feel we'll be able to negotiate a more favourable deal on foodstuffs once out of the EU?

I expect us to get cheap stuff tariff free from various non EU nations to supplement what we have now. Overall, I expect us to have a lower average quality of food but a much lower average price, and because poor people spend more of their income on food as a %, it will give them choices they do not have now, the rest of us can carry on buying what we do now, should we choose too. We will have, as a minimum, a free trade agreement, I expect the Govt to sell Brexiteers down the river, so I don’t expect EU tariffs,

As for Greenmile’s question about the metropolitan elite. That term is a UK specific term, in other countries it is called the liberal elite. I prefer the term meritocracy. People who have been funnelled into a liberal university education and all the dice are then set in their favour to the exclusion of everyone else. I see it as a selfish, lonely survival of the fittest. If we are in good health, qualified, articulate and living in large urban areas we are seeing our lifestyle get better and better. If we are “left behind”, in a manual trade or out of work, socially reticent, in a small town or uncomfortable amongst people different to us, life is increasingly lonely and unpleasant with no community solidarity like there once was. However, I see the so called metropolitan elites as lonely too, never meeting their neighbours, staying in with family rather than socialising with friends, joining fewer clubs and having less in common with those around us.

That backdrop, the creation of a liberal elite, is why I view Blair’s term as a disaster, though I applauded it at the time. The drive to send everyone to university, yet the creation of tuition fees to freeze out the poor, then the immense migration to change the fabric of communities. There were very clear winners and losers, and the former were not those that Labour traditionally support.

[PutTheWheelieBinsOut]

You know a lot more about the economic modelling than I do so I am not going to challenge you on that, though I would say that 1,000s of economists and accountants would (and have) disagree most strongly with your analysis.

Oh are these the economists who missed the banks crisis? Even Vince Cable predicted the banking crisis, I wonder why your mates in the city missed it? It couldn't have been because warning about it could affect their own personal wealth could it? But now they want to warn us? it couldn't possibly be because Brexit would affect their own personal wealth could it? surely not, these honest trustful people you have so much faith in.

If I started an organisation tomorrow and lets say of 27 countries, but these were from predominantly white countries, with policies that discriminate against people particularly of poorer countries who happen not to be members of the 27 and their trading arrangements, far from helping, actually creating barriers for these poorer countries to trade, whilst negotiating better trading terms with the richer countries who are not members of the 27 which would benefit the already richer (predominantly white) countries. Then on top of that putting extra barriers in place for people who are not members of the 27 (predominantly white) countries who wanted to immigrate to this country. People might call me racist and the people who support me racist also. To be honest if i did set up such an organisation I wouldn't be able to argue with them. Maybe in these circumstances the best way for myself and my supporters to deflect such accusations is to accuse others who don't agree with my views racist themselves, seems like a plan?

[Taffy on the wing]

I would also like to add to this thread. Crosspoolclaret is so deluded as to defy description!
No amount of Gobbledygook, will ever convince any sensible person or REAL ECONOMIST that wealth trickles down to the 'man in the street'.
It never has and it never will!.. The rich just buy assets.The super rich buy Picasso's etc or stuff it in offshore accounts. Either way they avoid paying taxes!
Apart from the odd coin tossed to the homeless......the poor can go **** themselves.
People like Crosspool are merely deluded enablers.......SAD!

[Imploding Turtle]

Trickle-down economics

Do people still believe in this?

[Greenmile]

I expect us to get cheap stuff tariff free from various non EU nations to supplement what we have now. Overall, I expect us to have a lower average quality of food but a much lower average price, and because poor people spend more of their income on food as a %, it will give them choices they do not have now, the rest of us can carry on buying what we do now, should we choose too. We will have, as a minimum, a free trade agreement, I expect the Govt to sell Brexiteers down the river, so I don’t expect EU tariffs,

As for Greenmile’s question about the metropolitan elite. That term is a UK specific term, in other countries it is called the liberal elite. I prefer the term meritocracy. People who have been funnelled into a liberal university education and all the dice are then set in their favour to the exclusion of everyone else. I see it as a selfish, lonely survival of the fittest. If we are in good health, qualified, articulate and living in large urban areas we are seeing our lifestyle get better and better. If we are “left behind”, in a manual trade or out of work, socially reticent, in a small town or uncomfortable amongst people different to us, life is increasingly lonely and unpleasant with no community solidarity like there once was. However, I see the so called metropolitan elites as lonely too, never meeting their neighbours, staying in with family rather than socialising with friends, joining fewer clubs and having less in common with those around us.

That backdrop, the creation of a liberal elite, is why I view Blair’s term as a disaster, though I applauded it at the time. The drive to send everyone to university, yet the creation of tuition fees to freeze out the poor, then the immense migration to change the fabric of communities. There were very clear winners and losers, and the former were not those that Labour traditionally support.

So the metropolitan elite are people (or maybe just liberals) who went to university and don’t have many friends? Is that right? Can one be small-c conservative and part of the metropolitan elite?

[Pstotto]

The Romans built Hadrian's Wall and said that bits yours, we'll leave you alone. Germany built the EU and we voted for Brexit and said leave us alone, because we don't want you to destroy England and its church of the vigilante tribe (C of E,) just so that you can use us as a human test-bed for 'social engineering,' regarding 'creativity.'

[Pstotto]

...To create the next underclass of the elite by the reality game to see if the muslims (whose family motto is hard work i.e. the new Victorians) can plant their flag in the crusaders holy land of satanic mills instead of Jerusalem, via a perversion of the story of the Accrington pals. This time it's a 'peaceful revolution' so others can 'look after you.'

The EU basically want to destroy the UK to the ground and bring it to its knees to beg for the Ayatollahs. 100 years war??????????? Think about what is happening to England and the Englanders.

It's a pathetic idea to use us for experimentation of this type, I think and on their own folk.

[Pstotto]

... And its all because India and China can't play football and Russia are worried they won't win the World Cup this summer and the USA and Italy 'failed to qualify,' in fact the press has gone out for the Italians to spend more time with their family.

[Lancasterclaret]

If I started an organisation tomorrow and lets say of 27 countries, but these were from predominantly white countries, with policies that discriminate against people particularly of poorer countries who happen not to be members of the 27 and their trading arrangements, far from helping, actually creating barriers for these poorer countries to trade, whilst negotiating better trading terms with the richer countries who are not members of the 27 which would benefit the already richer (predominantly white) countries. Then on top of that putting extra barriers in place for people who are not members of the 27 (predominantly white) countries who wanted to immigrate to this country. People might call me racist and the people who support me racist also. To be honest if i did set up such an organisation I wouldn't be able to argue with them. Maybe in these circumstances the best way for myself and my supporters to deflect such accusations is to accuse others who don't agree with my views racist themselves, seems like a plan?

Er yeah, well its a point of view.

You'll have to help me out a bit here, but it looks like you want a free for all economic system, as much migration as possible, especially of non-whites to the UK. Sounds great, but I think some contributors to this thread might have issues with that.

[Lancasterclaret]

Oh are these the economists who missed the banks crisis? Even Vince Cable predicted the banking crisis, I wonder why your mates in the city missed it? It couldn't have been because warning about it could affect their own personal wealth could it? But now they want to warn us? it couldn't possibly be because Brexit would affect their own personal wealth could it? surely not, these honest trustful people you have so much faith in.

I haven't got any mates in the city, I live about 200 miles away from it. I've only ever been to the place to watch Burnley play.

I believe, read and trust in people who study this kind of thing their entire life, rather than people who support the same football team that I do who have questionable views on everything that is perfectly normal (to normal people) in 2018. (I've no idea if that includes you or not btw)

You have to listen to somebody about stuff like this, and I'd trust a professor in economics (for example) over a ex merchant banker (for example).

[Lancasterclaret]

I like your contributions Crosspool, but there are some massive generalisations on that post about what constitutes a "metropolitan elite"

And though I'm not a fan of tuition fees, isn't it true that more and more students from a poor background are going to Uni?

[houseboy]

But didn't Mrs May say - this is to give me a mandate for Brexit, or very similar words? Wasn't that the reason she gave for calling the election?
She got the answer in the Tory marginals.
(My apologies - houseboy - if I appear to be stalking you. It's just that I am disagreeing - in a friendly sort of way with a couple of your recent posts!
Much of what you have put I agree with).

You are right she did say that but it was wrong to do so because to make a general election about a single issue is totally wrong.
No offence taken mate, this is what intelligent debate is about, ha ha. As I said in an earlier post I don't think arguing over Brexit is much use now and I've got a bit bored with it. I think everyone has made up their mind and no-one is moving, it's the immovable object verses the unstoppable missile, an impossible argument to win.

[houseboy]

no i know, i'm just stirring the old pot

interesting though that the tories made it mostly about brexit, indeed that was the reason they called the election, yet the result suggested there isn't quite the appetite for their version of brexit that they'd hoped.

The whole Brexit debate has fuelled a lot of passion among the good people of this country and caused a lot of argument but I feel the only way to see what will happen is to go ahead with it and find out. One thing is for sure being in wasn't, in my opinion, doing us any favours, but then I have been anti-EU (not anti-European by the way) ever since we joined the Common Market. The only thing I think people forget is that the old Common Market, the thing that we joined, was purely a trading organisation, a small group of countries joined together in trade, nothing more. What it became is a huge monster of a thing that started to interfere with law making and other things not to do with trade, and it has started to threaten the sovereignty of all its member countries. It is trying to force the people of Europe into a procrustean bed of sameness and that is a shame because Europe is beautifully diverse.

Please note that if anyone wants to carry on this discussion in an intelligent and rational manner, for or against, I will answer, but anyone into name calling and insult will meet with utter silence.

[halfmanhalfbiscuit]

I expect us to get cheap stuff tariff free from various non EU nations to supplement what we have now. Overall, I expect us to have a lower average quality of food but a much lower average price, and because poor people spend more of their income on food as a %, it will give them choices they do not have now, the rest of us can carry on buying what we do now, should we choose too. We will have, as a minimum, a free trade agreement, I expect the Govt to sell Brexiteers down the river, so I don’t expect EU tariffs,

The UK already has the worst standard of food in Europe.
Over 50% of peoples weekly shopping is ultra-processed, basically knocked up in a factory using industrial ingredients. It's not actually food, it's something that's been invented by technologists.
To let standards fall even lower would be shudderingly irresponsible.
Surely a decent level of actual food is a basic human requirement?

[CrosspoolClarets]

So the metropolitan elite are people (or maybe just liberals) who went to university and don’t have many friends? Is that right? Can one be small-c conservative and part of the metropolitan elite?

I think the term is very misleading. David Goodhart explains it much better than I can. This is an article he wrote in the FT. Like him, I’ve had a bit of an epiphany on the issue post referendum, which seems to have brought all this to light even though on the face of it the issues are different.

https://www.ft.com/content/39a0867a-097 ... 3b21361b43

But, the “somewheres” as Goodhart calls them in his book, still have to be self aware enough to recognise the issue and recognise that wealthy people or the elite if you will, do sometimes want to help them. Some, like the clown 10-15 posts up who was abusing me, are so wrapped up in hate of wealthy people they are beyond help.

[CrosspoolClarets]

The UK already has the worst standard of food in Europe.
Over 50% of peoples weekly shopping is ultra-processed, basically knocked up in a factory using industrial ingredients. It's not actually food, it's something that's been invented by technologists.
To let standards fall even lower would be shudderingly irresponsible.
Surely a decent level of actual food is a basic human requirement?

I agree generally, but we pay too much for food and when we have people queueing at food banks a reduction in price may help them. It doesn’t have to be standards, it could simply be lower production costs, but there are countries outside the EU who could supply food cheaper if they were allowed to, tariff free.