384 million extra a week for NHS after Brexit.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:26 pm

Being kicked out of the EU arrest warrant scheme:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44532500" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

claretonthecoast1882 · Post by **claretonthecoast1882** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:40 pm

Spijed wrote:Being kicked out of the EU arrest warrant scheme:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44532500" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Considering that there will be no flights into and out of the country after Brexit does this matter ?

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 4:41 pm

claretonthecoast1882 wrote:Considering that there will be no flights into and out of the country after Brexit does this matter ?

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:13 pm

Spijed wrote:Being kicked out of the EU arrest warrant scheme:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44532500" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The EU, punching themselves in the face there.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:13 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:There are no "pro-Brexit" economic forecasts

What there are though are very isolated economic theorists (one in particular whose name escapes me) who are quoted a lot by Brexiteers but there are literally hundreds of other economic theorists saying that their model won't work and then there are a very few businessmen who say it will be great, but again, extremely vague on how this actually is the case.

Hi Lancs, I read your post and thought, hang on, there is a group of academics who have been taking an "alternative view" of Brexit.

Their website is "Briefings for Breixt." https://briefingsforbrexit.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They include comments on economic forecasts and have their own model.

They produced a paper earlier this year: Recent Estimates of the Economic Impact of Brexit as a comments on the new forecasts that appeared from other forecasters and were reported in the media.

You might be interested in this quote: "In conclusion, the Cambridge Econometrics report predicts lower GVA and employment but no substantial reduction in living standards as measured by per capita GVA. In true ‘project fear’ style, the reductions were widely reported but the important point on living standards was ignored. The predictions, whether commented upon or not, can be viewed as plausible. The UK economy is likely to be a little smaller after Brexit, mainly because lower migration will mean lower numbers of jobs and less output. We agree with CE that the living standards of the resident population are likely to be little changed."

Interesting last sentence, don't you think?

keith1879 · Post by **keith1879** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:24 pm

Paul Waine wrote:Hi Lancs, I read your post and thought, hang on, there is a group of academics who have been taking an "alternative view" of Brexit.

Their website is "Briefings for Breixt." https://briefingsforbrexit.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They include comments on economic forecasts and have their own model.

They produced a paper earlier this year: Recent Estimates of the Economic Impact of Brexit as a comments on the new forecasts that appeared from other forecasters and were reported in the media.

You might be interested in this quote: "In conclusion, the Cambridge Econometrics report predicts lower GVA and employment but no substantial reduction in living standards as measured by per capita GVA. In true ‘project fear’ style, the reductions were widely reported but the important point on living standards was ignored. The predictions, whether commented upon or not, can be viewed as plausible. The UK economy is likely to be a little smaller after Brexit, mainly because lower migration will mean lower numbers of jobs and less output. We agree with CE that the living standards of the resident population are likely to be little changed."

Interesting last sentence, don't you think?

I suppose it depends on what "little changed" turns out to mean. My suspicion is that everybody will be potentially a "little" worse off - but that the rich and powerful will make sure that the pain mostly falls on the people at the bottom of the tree. That doesn't seem to be a good outcome to me - but the whole debate has always been conducted with too little subtlety by both sides.

Spijed · Post by **Spijed** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:27 pm

Brexiteers would rather have a break up of the UK.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... y-customs/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:27 pm

claretandy wrote:The EU, punching themselves in the face there.

Given the UK's insistence on leaving the ECJ jurisdiction it would surely have been impossible for them to do anything else.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:48 pm

Spijed wrote:Brexiteers would rather have a break up of the UK.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... y-customs/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The NI border is being exaggerated.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:57 pm

keith1879 wrote:I suppose it depends on what "little changed" turns out to mean. My suspicion is that everybody will be potentially a "little" worse off - but that the rich and powerful will make sure that the pain mostly falls on the people at the bottom of the tree. That doesn't seem to be a good outcome to me - but the whole debate has always been conducted with too little subtlety by both sides.

Hi Keith, the "massive growth" in wealth experienced by the "richest 1,000" since referendum can, I believe, be attributed to the fall in value of the pound - and the re-valuation of their overseas wealth, held in foreign currencies. If, as is reasonable, the value of sterling reflects the "risk factor" i.e unknown of brexit then once these issues are resolved, however they are resolved, hard, soft, red, blue or whatever your fancy, this uncertainty will go away - and the overseas wealth may not get another conversion boost.

Over the years there has been a narrowing of the "wealth gap" rather than a widening in the UK. I see no reason that this will not continue post-brexit. Equally, I don't see that brexit is either pro- or anti- changes in the "wealth gap" and income distributions - that's all about other societal effects.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:18 pm

claretandy wrote:The EU, punching themselves in the face there.

The ******* irony of a brexiteer saying that!

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:25 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:The ******* irony of a brexiteer saying that!

Just out of curiosity, do you get upset when England win at football?

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:32 pm

Spijed wrote:Brexiteers would rather have a break up of the UK.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... y-customs/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Because most people recognise this is due to us being bullied over Northern Ireland (which todays arrest warrant issue is also about).

Brits hate being bullied. Amazed Barnier is so daft as to miss that.

When the time comes though it will be the Republic that gets thrown under the bus. Money always wins, and we have loads of it.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:39 pm

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:48 pm

ClaretMoffitt wrote:Just out of curiosity, do you get upset when England win at football?

Honestly? No. For the bants? Yes.

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:11 pm

If it be your will wrote:Too right! We need to stick it to 'em.

So, what's our plan of retaliation again?

You could take your pick.

We have about £40bn of exit payments to reduce.
We have a massive GCHQ / intelligence resource.
We could say "fine, we can stop all security cooperation".

We have asked the EU countries to arrest about 300 per year under the arrest warrant. They have asked us to arrest over 10000.

Barnier and the Commission are playing games "the UK are not yet ready to accept freedom of movement". Someone should tell him that the hair brained policy in question has only months to live anyway, thanks to Merkel. Sooner or later the Council dog will start to wag the Commission tail. But only if we hang tough.

Devils_Advocate · Post by **Devils_Advocate** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:54 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:We have asked the EU countries to arrest about 300 per year under the arrest warrant. They have asked us to arrest over 10000.

Would this mean when we close the borders Europe will have 300 of our criminals spread across the EU for every 10,000 of their criminals we'll have in the UK? If thats doesn't scare the sh*t out of them than nothing will

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:00 pm

CrosspoolClarets · Post by **CrosspoolClarets** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:42 pm

If it be your will wrote:I think we'd just receive a Gallic shrug. He'd know we couldn't possibly be being serious. Threatening a hard 'No deal is better than a bad deal' Brexit might (might) have worked had we started taking steps towards that end immediately after the referendum. With 6 months left, Barnier would know there is no chance of that getting through the Cabinet. Our negotiating position is dead in the water.

I cannot disagree, but there is no way we can let a Remain-led negotiation by the likes of Oliver Robbins scupper Brexit, the Tories would never be elected again (which, even for a Labourite, is a bad thing, just as the reverse would be). We will have to leave with no deal if it comes to it, but the EU will blink before that. Merkel is struggling to survive as it is.

Devils_Advocate wrote:Would this mean when we close the borders Europe will have 300 of our criminals spread across the EU for every 10,000 of their criminals we'll have in the UK? If thats doesn't scare the sh*t out of them than nothing will

Well firstly, the borders will not be closed, they will be tightened. Secondly, I would expect everyone to register their entry details (scanners etc). Thirdly, removing freedom of movement has to tighten up our borders.

The real issue here is the Irish border, where criminals can just wander across and hence the arrest warrant is so important. They are playing games. They are trying to engineer a position where we stay in the Customs Union and Single Market. Personally those tactics I find disagreeable, and it reinforces my decision to vote Leave.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:46 pm

It's absolutely baffling that people think the EU "will blink first". The EU knows we need them far more than they need us. There is absolutely no logic in the idea that they'll blink first. None. Yet you've been saying this for years, on the Leave side. Not once have any of you been able to explain why the EU would buckle knowing that we're the ones who need the other the most.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:07 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:It's absolutely baffling that people think the EU "will blink first". The EU knows we need them far more than they need us. There is absolutely no logic in the idea that they'll blink first. None. Yet you've been saying this for years, on the Leave side. Not once have any of you been able to explain why the EU would buckle knowing that we're the ones who need the other the most.

Hi IT, I've no desire for the EU "to buckle" - but, isn't the EU supposed to be a body to promote peace? How does that work with states that have never been EU members if they approach the departure of a long standing member state as a reason to "pick fights?"

It might be a mystery to many of us how "leave" got the majority vote in the referendum. Surely, we should all be asking - including the populations of the EU27 - how is it best for the EU to adopt the negotiating stance it has shown sine June-2016?

And, I'm thinking about the politics of it, not the economics. I believe we can separate those two things in international affairs within the developed "European world."

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:07 pm

CrosspoolClarets wrote:
The real issue here is the Irish border, where criminals can just wander across and hence the arrest warrant is so important. They are playing games. They are trying to engineer a position where we stay in the Customs Union and Single Market. Personally those tactics I find disagreeable, and it reinforces my decision to vote Leave.

You've hit the nail on the head there.
You see it all comes down May undermining our negotiating position from day one by issuing red-lines that scuppered most of the negotiations.
1. She said "no compromise" over the Irish border. This means that we have to have some kind of deal on customs union because we can't revert to WTO rules unless we have a hard border
2. She said "no" to remaining under ECJ. This means we can no longer be party to a whole raft of EU agreements which come under the jurisdiction of the ECJ. The European arrest warrant announcement today isn't news. May made this an inevitability when she made the ECJ a red-line.
On both the above we therefore have an impossibly weak position and the EU know it. We are looking for ways to resolve these problems in negotiations, but she drove us into a cul-de-sac at the very beginning.
The EU are also aware that some of our red-lines are incompatible (e.g. no hard border / no customs union), so basically they hold just about all the cards. (Even operating flights in the EU comes under the jurisdiction of the ECJ - in order to ensure safe practice - so we need them to agree a deal with us on something that seems as simple as that).

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:08 pm

I don't think you can threaten to leave with a "No deal" when

- its not supported by the vast majority of the population
- we haven't done any work to cope with a no deal scenario (no shock there really based on option 1)
- it would never get through parliament

Get as long a transitional deal that we need to see if MaxFax works (it won't but hey, you've got to give a try to give the Brexiteers something to cling on to) and then we leave with a deal worse than what we had before and with a lot less close friends and allies in a time in which we can all agree we need as many of them as we can get our hands on.

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:46 pm

If it be your will · Post by **If it be your will** » Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:50 pm

ClaretMoffitt · Post by **ClaretMoffitt** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:07 am

If it be your will wrote:This was strange to read. While you are despairing at the Tory chances of future electoral success, I am despairing at Labour's. One of us must be wrong.

I'm just hoping sargon of akkad and count dankula et al stick around in UKIP and bring them more centre left (and get rid of all the nutters) unlike;y I know, but stranger things have happened.

SmudgetheClaret · Post by **SmudgetheClaret** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:55 am

Brexit dividend is a myth ...or is it ????

: image.png (290.67 KiB) Viewed 3365 times

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:13 am

Patrick Minford - thats the fella I was on about on my post above

Course, every other economist think he's bonkers but thats not stopped you lot before and it certainly won't this time I feel

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:35 am

He's also the economist who predicts that post-Brexit Britain won't have any manufacturing industries which will leave those like Ringo who blame the EU for the decline in manufacturing a bit conflicted.

Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing
and hi-tech.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:05 am

aggi wrote:He's also the economist who predicts that post-Brexit Britain won't have any manufacturing industries which will leave those like Ringo who blame the EU for the decline in manufacturing a bit conflicted.

Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing
and hi-tech.

Manufacturing isn't in decline, it's just the jobs that are. The Brexiteers have this romantic notion that once we're free of the EU that all these jobs will come back, but we're not losing jobs to the EU. Manufacturing jobs are being lost to automation.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kin ... production" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:31 am

aggi wrote:He's also the economist who predicts that post-Brexit Britain won't have any manufacturing industries which will leave those like Ringo who blame the EU for the decline in manufacturing a bit conflicted.

Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing
and hi-tech.

"A but conflicted"

If the Tories half inch Labour's manifesto pledge of scrapping tuition fees to gain popularity with younger voters. You're convinced that would be a losing party in a general election enacting part of its manifesto, and by doing so, undermining centuries of established parliamentary procedure. And not political opportunism on behalf of the Tories!

If Carlsberg did conflicted aggi. They'd feature you in an ad, looking all befuddled, with somebody trying their level best to explain how the democratic process of this nation works, and has worked for centuries. Itd have an exaserpated bloke saying, "it's just not sinking in aggi, is It!? I need a beer"

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 11:56 am

You are slipping Ringo, the old, angry Ringo would have gone

Democracy 1 Aggi 0

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:02 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:You are slipping Ringo, the old, angry Ringo would have gone

Democracy 1 Aggi 0

For once lancs, you're bob on!

If Carlsberg did slipping standards.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:11 pm

I particularly like how RIngo hasn't even managed to accurately quote me from the post above his. Makes it a bit less surprising that he then went on to misquote the rest of it.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:44 pm

aggi wrote:I particularly like how RIngo hasn't even managed to accurately quote me from the post above his. Makes it a bit less surprising that he then went on to misquote the rest of it.

No "misquote" from me aggi. Just a misunderstanding from you. Between the following.

1. A losing side enacting part of its manifesto into legislation and law via parliamentary procedure. Which, were it ever to happen, (It hasn't in hundreds if years of parliament) would cause a constitutional crisis, and clearly wouldn't happen.

2. Blatent political opportunism.

Maybe you should more time concentrating on understanding the difference between the two, and less on attempting to rewrite recent UTC message board history.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:16 pm

Grieve has backed down, no rebellion today, no deal is still on the table, as it should be.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:24 pm

claretandy wrote:Grieve has backed down, no rebellion today, no deal is still on the table, as it should be.

And if the government chooses 'no deal' then we should get to have a say on whether we want a 'no deal' Brexit, or to remain. Because 'no deal' was not the Brexit that was promised when we cast our votes previously.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:38 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:And if the government chooses 'no deal' then we should get to have a say on whether we want a 'no deal' Brexit, or to remain. Because 'no deal' was not the Brexit that was promised when we cast our votes previously.

Neither was remaining. Your side lost. It's called democracy you idiot.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:39 pm

"we will use the funds returned from Brussels after Brexit to invest in our public services."

Jeremy Corbyn leader of her majestys loyal opposition. 2018........

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:52 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:And if the government chooses 'no deal' then we should get to have a say on whether we want a 'no deal' Brexit, or to remain. Because 'no deal' was not the Brexit that was promised when we cast our votes previously.

But what kind of remain would we be voting for ? The EU has already said we would have to join the Euro and lose the rebate. Just like if remain would have won in the first place, the EU would have seen it as an endorsement of their world view and could have marginalized us.

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:25 pm

It shows just how throw away the left believe democracy is.

The biggest single expression of democracy the UK has witnessed decides to Leave the EU.

Then they, and their anti democratic co conspirators on the right, in the Lords and backed by immoral, foreign billionaires. Try and bring about a situation where by The country is given the choice between the worst deal imaginable, delivered by the all to happy to oblige, EU (wink wink!) . Or over turning their original choice if Leaving!!!!

Remoaners - they really do have some, anti democracy, neck!!

RingoMcCartney · Post by **RingoMcCartney** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:39 pm

Spijed wrote:Being kicked out of the EU arrest warrant scheme:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44532500" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Since this statement, the head of GCHQ has informed Mr Barnier that in the last 12 months alone. British intelligence has scuppered 4 planned terrorist attacks on main land Europe. According to LBC at 16.30.

Theo Isherwood says given the reaction to national leaders across the EU, Barnier is looking very isolated after this, cut your nose off to spite your face, outburst.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:43 pm

RingoMcCartney wrote:Neither was remaining. Your side lost. It's called democracy you idiot.

So you believe that democracy means doing something we didn't vote for? Or are you saying you agree that we should have a final referendum if the government is doing something we didn't vote for?

If you wanted a No Deal brexit then you should have campaigned for one. But you didn't, and we all know why.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:45 pm

claretandy wrote:But what kind of remain would we be voting for ? The EU has already said we would have to join the Euro and lose the rebate. Just like if remain would have won in the first place, the EU would have seen it as an endorsement of their world view and could have marginalized us.

Lol. How could they have marginalised us when we'd still have a veto on everything they tried to do? lol. Instead we marginalised ourselves, which has been hilarious.

FactualFrank · Post by **FactualFrank** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:47 pm

So are we all in agreement?

morpheus2 · Post by **morpheus2** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:53 pm

Haven't got time to be reading through this thread, but I'm sure everyone will have agreed that this is fantastic news, well done Brexit

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:58 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:Lol. How could they have marginalised us when we'd still have a veto on everything they tried to do? lol. Instead we marginalised ourselves, which has been hilarious.

There would have been more pressure to drop the veto, and don't forget Bliar gave part of our rebate away, god only knows what Corbyn would have given away.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:59 pm

claretandy wrote:There would have been more pressure to drop the veto, and don't forget Bliar gave part of our rebate away, god only knows what Corbyn would have given away.

There's been no pressure to drop the veto. Every country has it, you daft ****.

claretandy · Post by **claretandy** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:07 pm

Imploding Turtle wrote:

There's been no pressure to drop the veto. Every country has it, you daft ****.

we didn't vote remain ya daft ****.

Imploding Turtle · Post by **Imploding Turtle** » Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:15 pm

claretandy wrote:we didn't vote remain ya daft ****.

And Leave didn't campaign on a hard brexit. So if the government tries to have a hard brexit, or remain, then we should have another vote. You can't win a campaign promising a soft brexit and then tell us to get ****** when the government can only get a hard brexit. That's not how democracy works.

We all know why you're scared of another vote if the only thing the government can get is No Deal, and it's that you'll lose.

If you wanted a hard brexit then that's what your side should have campaigned and won on.