Brexit Food Shortages

[Greenmile]

2 trolls craving attention simultaneously!

I've surpassed myself!

I thought we were the same person, though?

You love it, don't you? If I believed otherwise, I'd honestly stop, as it's a bit cruel.

Now, are you going to tell me whether you're one of the feckers at the bottom, or whether you're stress free and mortgage free? I'm genuinely interested (I have my suspicions which is true, but I'd like you to confirm or deny them).

[martin_p]

And less than 24 hours later your claiming that things are improving for those at the bottom cos you point to a report based on a 10 year window.!!!!! Unbelievable double talk!!!!

A report that says

Inequality is falling (IN THE LAST 10 YEARS), but that doesn't mean living standards are rising a great deal. Here's why.

Incomes have declined among the highest earners, many of whom work in the finance and insurance industries. That's because these sectors were hit hardest by the financial crisis.

But overall, incomes have barely increased and the level of absolute poverty - defined as people below a fixed level of income, seen as the minimum required to meet their basic needs - has only fallen slightly over the past decade"

In other words, things have got back to where they were. At the start of the period. What If, prior to the period before you focus on, things for the poorest were better!!!!???

It means overall things are worse !

The spectacle of seeing a grown man so desperately clinging on to the word "consistently" in order to try a justify a view, is embarrassing.( that things are getting better for the poor!) Especially when you consider that by holding that view it completely contradicts what he himself was saying less than 12 hours previously ( food banks ) !!!!!

One minute your Dennis Skinner. The next your margaret Thatcher!

Arghhh! Offline when Wrongo has his meltdown (good job he has a stress free life!).

Move on! Even the person (dsr) who made the ‘consistently worse’ quote has admitted he was wrong.

[RingoMcCartney]

Arghhh! Offline when Wrongo has his meltdown (good job he has a stress free life!).

Move on! Even the person (dsr) who made the ‘consistently worse’ quote has admitted he was wrong.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 89491.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nearly 400,000 more children and 300,000 more pensioners are now living in poverty than five years ago."

"Britain’s record on tackling poverty has reached a turning point and is at risk of unravelling, following the first sustained rises in child and pensioner poverty for two decades, a major report has warned."

"Fifth of UK population now in poverty amid worst decline for children and pensioners in decades, major report reveals"

Over to you Mr evidence!

[RingoMcCartney]

Arghhh! Offline when Wrongo has his meltdown (good job he has a stress free life!).

Move on! Even the person (dsr) who made the ‘consistently worse’ quote has admitted he was wrong.

And he's clarified.

So half way thru the weekend.

Any evidence yet Marty! That despite saying "You claim to support ‘those at the bottom’ but I haven’t heard one word of dissent from you on the austerity measures that have disproportionately effected those at the bottom or the benefit cuts that have left families depending on food banks." In one breath.

You then produce a , shooting yourself in the foot, link that jusr looks at relatively short period while we've been IN the EU, to claim things have got better for the poorest!!!

You're like the manager of a team than was getting battered 5.0 at half time and his team got a consolation goal in the second half to keep it to 5.1. "We won the second half" you'd say wouldn't you Marty! And everybody else would say " but you still lost you clown!"

ARE YOU BRIAN LAWS IN DISGUISE!!!???

[martin_p]

And he's clarified.

So half way thru the weekend.

Any evidence yet Marty! That despite saying "You claim to support ‘those at the bottom’ but I haven’t heard one word of dissent from you on the austerity measures that have disproportionately effected those at the bottom or the benefit cuts that have left families depending on food banks." In one breath.

You then produce a , shooting yourself in the foot, link that jusr looks at relatively short period while we've been IN the EU, to claim things have got better for the poorest!!!

You're like the manager of a team than was getting battered 5.0 at half time and his team got a consolation goal in the second half to keep it to 5.1. "We won the second half" you'd say wouldn't you Marty! And everybody else would say " but you still lost you clown!"

ARE YOU BRIAN LAWS IN DISGUISE!!!???

Give it up Wrongo, you’re having a conversation with just yourself. The point I was making has been accepted by the person it was aimed at (which wasn’t you). Move on and continue pretending you were at the Orient match.

[RingoMcCartney]

Give it up Wrongo, you’re having a conversation with just yourself. The point I was making has been accepted by the person it was aimed at (which wasn’t you). Move on and continue pretending you were at the Orient match.

No evidence! Again!

10.0 to Mr McCartney.

[bfcjg]

If I can't get my foie gras then I might join the clamour for another referendum and perhaps have a best of three.

[bluelabrador16]

Britain’s politicians are ignoring child poverty. The result: it’s soaring ......Dan Corry

25July18

Child poverty has grown under the coalition and Conservatives. It takes political will to tackle this scar on our society

".... new Resolution Foundation analysis has shown, child poverty levels are on the rise again. There were 4.1 million children living in poverty in the UK in 2016-17, according to Child Poverty Action Group. And it seems like nobody particularly cares. How then have we come to this?...

..Child poverty is a scar on our society – but we know from experience that we can do something about it if we really want to."

Comments: 677

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... -118729776" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Poorest 30% of UK households 'worse off by £50 to £150' last year

Thinktank says since 2010 child poverty has risen twice as fast as official figures show

Phillip Inman 24 Jul 2018

"... the lowest 30% of households found their incomes going backwards by between £50 and £150, widening the gap with middle and higher-income earners, who saw a modest rise in their living standards once benefit changes were taken into account.

The report comes at a time when the government faces accusations that cutbacks to tax credits are pushing low-income families into poverty while the successor, universal credit, is technically flawed, leading to long delays and miscalculated payments....."

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/ ... -last-year" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Academic Reference:

Corporate Europe Observatory

Exposing the power of corporate lobbying in the EU

Accounting for influence
How the Big Four are embedded in EU policy-making on tax avoidance (a taster)

"We pay our taxes, so why don’t corporations? This new report shows how the Big Four are embedded in EU policy-making on tax avoidance, and concludes that it is time to kick this industry out of EU anti-tax avoidance policy.

https://corporateeurope.org/power-lobbi ... -influence" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Siddo]

2 reports on Twitter this morning. Food bills could increase by 12% after a no deal Brexit and we will have to pay visa costs to visit EU countries.
That wasn't on the side of the big red bus either.

[Bangers&Mash]

2 reports on Twitter this morning. Food bills could increase by 12% after a no deal Brexit and we will have to pay visa costs to visit EU countries.
That wasn't on the side of the big red bus either.

I'm very much in the remain camp, but I find stuff like this all a bit hard to get my head round.

Surely only non-uk food prices will increase? So with a little care with my shopping my food bill won't increase by 12%. And if it does more fool me for buying European stuff when there's equally tasty, cheaper British available.

And charging for visas. If they charge then we charge, right? Tourism wise there could really only be Spain, France and probably Italy that benefited from this?

[Damo]

2 reports on Twitter this morning. Food bills could increase by 12% after a no deal Brexit and we will have to pay visa costs to visit EU countries.
That wasn't on the side of the big red bus either.

You remainers do realise that there were other sources of information available to help you form a descision on the referendum?
I doubt everything would of fit on the side of "the big red bus" if I'm being honest

[claretandy]

2 reports on Twitter this morning. Food bills could increase by 12% after a no deal Brexit and we will have to pay visa costs to visit EU countries.
That wasn't on the side of the big red bus either.

Could, is doing a lot of heavy lifting here....

[hampsteadclaret]

As an economist of some standing I look forward to the day, maybe not that far from now, when, unencumbered by rules, statutes and custom, we will be able to source all of our food demands from any titchy corner of the planet that wishes to sell their stuff to us...yes that's the whole of Asia, Africa, the Americas and all places in between.

The UK is known to collectively possess lots of ££££££££ so there should be no shortage of sellers [farmers] willing to deal with us.....the choice available should be flippin' amazin' ..

- and of course all that 'world level' competition should do wonders for lowering prices as they, month by month, strike trade deals with us.
- right now, farmers in Peru, Kenya and Indonesia and further afield are rubbing their hands in glee at the thought of the extra dosh coming their way
from hungry Britons..


These monies/revenues will increase massively in size, as the EU tragically implodes somewhere down the line.
- inequality in global income levels is also likely to fall....that's not bad is it..?

* If the price of these gains is temporary difficulties/shortages while we transition from EU membership to non EU membership, then personally I think I can handle that..[jam tomorrow]..we should all be able to handle a bit of short term pain, for long term gain.

Generally speaking we pursue capitalist practices, free market economics and free trade [some exceptions to this] - there are big gains to be had for us in all this...they just won't occur in the first five minutes of leaving the EU.



L1 J.

[Claret&Green]

I know and I can't for the life in me fathom out why he would make such a ridiculous prediction. No one in this world can make a 50 year economic forecast. I'm willing to bet that in 50 years the EU itself will be a distant memory.

I think you'll be right there houseboy. In 50 yrs we will prossibly have seen the creation of the United States of Europe followed 30or40 yrs later with independence wars similar to what happened after WWII with the creation of USSR & Yugoslavia, then in 90's these artificially created "nations" collapsed into umpteen "new" nations.

[martin_p]

The paying for visas stuff has is old news to be fair. The Daily Mail ‘EU must be joking’ headline that’s going around where it effectively bemoans the fact that the ending of free movement means movement won’t be free is from April.

[CrosspoolClarets]

If we are panicking about our food running out unless we willingly bow to the dominance of the super-state, then the EU has truly turned into the Soviet Union. Mark Twain did say history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. As a libertarian who values freedom and autonomy, the sooner we are out the better.

[burnleymik]

You remainers do realise that there were other sources of information available to help you form a descision on the referendum?
I doubt everything would of fit on the side of "the big red bus" if I'm being honest

Don't you see? Anything that could happen in the future was supposed to be written on the side of the bus!!
Bonkers.

[ngsobob]

Hampstead, Professor Minford thinks he's an economist of some standing too. Maybe time you both sat down?

[taio]

As an economist of some standing

Funny writing this about yourself.

[burnleymik]

Hampstead, Professor Minford thinks he's an economist of some standing too. Maybe time you both sat down?

Same professor Minford who advocated for us to join the Euro?

[nil_desperandum]

I'm very much in the remain camp, but I find stuff like this all a bit hard to get my head round.

Surely only non-uk food prices will increase? So with a little care with my shopping my food bill won't increase by 12%. And if it does more fool me for buying European stuff when there's equally tasty, cheaper British available.

And charging for visas. If they charge then we charge, right? Tourism wise there could really only be Spain, France and probably Italy that benefited from this?

I've promised myself not to get involved in these predictable brexit threads, but on your 2 specific points:
If non-UK food prices increase then so does homegrown produce. It's the simple economics of supply and demand. (i.e. the cost of something from abroad rises, demand for homegrown alternative rises, product becomes scarcer, price rises.)
A lot of people see the end of free movement as a red line, and a likely consequence of this was always the possibility of some kind of entry / exit visa.
A visa application process costs money, and this would obviously be borne by the applicant. (As you correctly suggest, no country would benefit from this, and we all pay, but it's what a lot of people voted for - (knowingly or not).

[Quickenthetempo]

If Donald Trump was in charge he would slap £500 charges on Visa's to EU countries then watch the likes of Spain go bankrupt without the billions of tourist money from Brits.

[nil_desperandum]

If Donald Trump was in charge he would slap £500 charges on Visa's to EU countries then watch the likes of Spain go bankrupt without the billions of tourist money from Brits.

There's a bit of a flaw in that theory, but I'll leave it for someone else to point out if you don't work it out for yourself.
(There's a clue in which country would be issuing the visa).

[hampsteadclaret]

418..419 Good morning taio and ngsobob [nelson grammar school old boy..bob?]..

Thank you for pulling me up on my cheeky comment.. 'as an economist of some standing'..quite right too.

That was of course a little joke, a bit of fun....if you don't believe that I wrote it as such, then look at the bottom of my post where it say...L1 J

- which stands for..LINE 1 Joke

Happy Sunday to you.

[hampsteadclaret]

418..ngsobob..I don't think that me and Professor Patrick Minford sitting down together would be a good idea - I notice he is big on Brexit and has argued for it persuasively for some time now...I must have more of a look at what he is saying.

I remember him mostly though for his support for Mrs Thatcher's Monetarist Experiment 1979-85 [re Milton Freidman] as part of the Medium Term Financial Strategy.

This policy was a dismal failure, the proponents were told that it would be a dismal failure, and this miserable 'experiment' did untold damage to the UK economy...Minford's dabs were all over it.

I hope he has more success in backing Brexit.

[Quickenthetempo]

There's a bit of a flaw in that theory, but I'll leave it for someone else to point out if you don't work it out for yourself.
(There's a clue in which country would be issuing the visa).

Call it a tax or whatever you like.

It should be every countries aim to have a policy for it to be cheaper for tourists to come to them than let people go and spend their money in others.

Yes I know it's impossible for all.

[ngsobob]

425 Hampstead, Minford can't argue persuasively about anything to do with economics, his is a record of failure. Pity his students down at Cardiff. I 'm sure he'll have no success backing Brexit, nor do I hope he will. Am I right in recalling you were a Brexiter? Are you still?

[nil_desperandum]

Call it a tax or whatever you like.

It should be every countries aim to have a policy for it to be cheaper for tourists to come to them than let people go and spend their money in others.

Yes I know it's impossible for all.

So you would favour a policy whereby a country's govt effectively prevents a large percentage of its population from leaving the country? (Sounds Stalinist to me).
Under your scheme a hardworking family on low income of 2 adults and 2 children would have to pay an additional £2000 for an "exit visa" in order to have a family holiday in the EU.
And what about those who travel in and out of the EU on a regular basis as a part of their work?

[Quickenthetempo]

So you would favour a policy whereby a country's govt effectively prevents a large percentage of its population from leaving the country? (Sounds Stalinist to me).
Under your scheme a hardworking family on low income of 2 adults and 2 children would have to pay an additional £2000 for an "exit visa" in order to have a family holiday in the EU.
And what about those who travel in and out of the EU on a regular basis as a part of their work?

Yep, but in reality they wouldn't pay it.

They would make use of this countries fine holidaying sites instead.

Companies would have to pay for Visa's.

Put Britain first instead of the bully boys of the EU.

[nil_desperandum]

Yep, but in reality they wouldn't pay it.

They would make use of this countries fine holidaying sites instead.
.

You're right - they wouldn't be able to pay it, and that's my point.
Like most things brexit related, the wealthy at the top - like Rees-Mogg, Gove, Farage, Redwood and Johnson - wouldn't be affected, those from the EU who have dual nationality or are from Ireland wouldn't be affected, but the northern working class would be the ones who would have less opportunities.

[Quickenthetempo]

The wealthy will always have more opportunities than us, the working class. Always have, always will.

Getting a stronger Gt Britain will help our opportunities though won't it?

We're in a political war with the EU who are out to screw us. Dog eat dog tactics now I'm afraid.

[nil_desperandum]

We're in a political war with the EU who are out to screw us. Dog eat dog tactics now I'm afraid.

Well in that case both dogs will get hurt but the bigger dog will come out on top, and in this case it will be 27 dogs we are fighting. (This was always going to be the problem having invoked Article 50 without having the faintest idea of what our negotiating position is.)
And to get back to my original point - it's those at the "bottom" who will suffer the most - as usual.

[Quickenthetempo]

Those at the bottom have suffered worse since being in the EU and presumably before.

Spain would be far worse off than us and that would put huge pressure on the EU other nations.

[nil_desperandum]

Those at the bottom have suffered worse since being in the EU and presumably before.

You are of course entitled to your opinion, but to suggest - as you did - that we should penalise the poorest in society by charging them £500 to leave the country is not what people voted for when / if they voted leave.
If a remain supporter were to claim that by leaving with a "hard" brexit a family of 4 would have to pay £2000 to go on holiday, it would be immediately dismissed by brexiteers as scaremongering / "project fear".
One of the contradictions of the "leave" argument is that most "leavers" that I speak to think that we should have unlimited access to travel and work in the EU, but that we should not afford the same privilege to the other 27 states. Seriously, why would any of the 27 agree to this?

[dsr]

So this visa issue. Is this an EU policy or unilaterally decided by the countries concerned? Because either way, Spain and Greece (for example) are going to have to decide how badly they want UK tourist income, because they can be "good Europeans" by encouraging UK holidaymakers to visit Morocco and Turkey instead - at financial cost to themselves - or they can keep chasing the money to boost their own economies.

I'm not in any way denying the reliability of twitter feeds, but has this arrangement been already agreed, or is it just a "back of a bus" speculation?

[hampsteadclaret]

427...I voted for exit and I still want us to exit..was that not clear from what I typed in 413?

Essentially as I see it..there will be some messy short term pain which over a period of 3,4, 5 years will be replaced with substantial long term gain.

This is a rich country in the scheme of things, and the rest of the world wants our money...that includes the international group that we are seeking to escape from..

when the dust settles, on what will be a messy parting, we will have way more freedoms and our total trade with the WHOLE world will grow in a way that we will hardly be able to believe.


** It is worth saying that Gideon Osborne's useless 'Austerity Programme' put in place in 2010 has done far more damage to the British economy, than Brexit has ever done.

- then Gideon ran away [with his pal Cameron] and when last seen he was editing a free [giveaway] newspaper in London.

[AndrewJB]

The wealthy will always have more opportunities than us, the working class. Always have, always will.

Getting a stronger Gt Britain will help our opportunities though won't it?

We're in a political war with the EU who are out to screw us. Dog eat dog tactics now I'm afraid.

It’s not a conflict. We are the ones who have chosen to leave, so it’s only natural that they’ll cease to look out for our interests as a member, and that some member states will look to supplant us in some areas of exports we currently have within the EU (just as we might source some products from outside it), We chose to leave, but there’s no reason for us to be bellicose about it - and considering the fact we’re much smaller this is in our best interests too.

[Jakubclaret]

It’s not a conflict. We are the ones who have chosen to leave, so it’s only natural that they’ll cease to look out for our interests as a member, and that some member states will look to supplant us in some areas of exports we currently have within the EU (just as we might source some products from outside it), We chose to leave, but there’s no reason for us to be bellicose about it - and considering the fact we’re much smaller this is in our best interests too.

If it's not a conflict why does it feel that way? Yes you're right we have chosen to leave, the EU are well aware the country is divided with the outcome of the vote, the only thing in mind which favours a poor deal forthcoming is lack of unification of people accepting a overall democratic decision, any poor exit decision the doorstep will be of the remoaners for that obvious reasons.

[martin_p]

If it's not a conflict why does it feel that way? Yes you're right we have chosen to leave, the EU are well aware the country is divided with the outcome of the vote, the only thing in mind which favours a poor deal forthcoming is lack of unification of people accepting a overall democratic decision, any poor exit decision the doorstep will be of the remoaners for that obvious reasons.

[Devils_Advocate]

If it's not a conflict why does it feel that way? Yes you're right we have chosen to leave, the EU are well aware the country is divided with the outcome of the vote, the only thing in mind which favours a poor deal forthcoming is lack of unification of people accepting a overall democratic decision, any poor exit decision the doorstep will be of the remoaners for that obvious reasons.

Peak Brexit at its best

Idiot "We want Unicorns"
Normal Person "But Unicorns don't exist"
Idiot "Stop being undemocratic the majority wants Unicorns"
Normal Person "But Unicorns don't exist"
Idiot "Well if we don't get Unicorns its on your doorstep for obvious reasons"

The sad thing is when Brexit goes tits up it will be those who predicted it would go tits up (for obvious reasons) who will get the blame as nothings ever the fault of the thick Neanderthal little Englanders
"

[dsr]

Peak Brexit at its best

Idiot "We want Unicorns"
Normal Person "But Unicorns don't exist"
Idiot "Stop being undemocratic the majority wants Unicorns"
Normal Person "But Unicorns don't exist"
Idiot "Well if we don't get Unicorns its on your doorstep for obvious reasons""

Ever seen the quiz "impossible" - with answers that aren't just wrong, they're impossible? This is the attitude that a lot of passionate Remainers have. Not that Brexiteers are wrong, but that they couldn't possibly be right. However, telling people "you are wrong because you are stupid" isn't a vote-winning argument.

Plenty of Brtexiteers - nearly all of us, in fact - believe that we're right but accept that Remainers have a valid argument. Why are so many Remainers such arrogant, sneering people who refuse to accept another point of view?

[Devils_Advocate]

Ever seen the quiz "impossible" - with answers that aren't just wrong, they're impossible? This is the attitude that a lot of passionate Remainers have. Not that Brexiteers are wrong, but that they couldn't possibly be right. However, telling people "you are wrong because you are stupid" isn't a vote-winning argument.

Plenty of Brtexiteers - nearly all of us, in fact - believe that we're right but accept that Remainers have a valid argument. Why are so many Remainers such arrogant, sneering people who refuse to accept another point of view?

I'm talking about the Peak Brexiteers like Jakub who now argue Brexit in religious like terms and are now starting to blame everyone for themselves when the impossible isn't (surprise surprise) coming true.

I'm sorry but these guys come across as idiots so I'm gonna call them idiots and I'm past the stage of wasting my time caveating the different levels of Brexiteers just so I don't upset a few people.

[Devils_Advocate]

You are of course entitled to your opinion, but to suggest - as you did - that we should penalise the poorest in society by charging them £500 to leave the country is not what people voted for when / if they voted leave.
If a remain supporter were to claim that by leaving with a "hard" brexit a family of 4 would have to pay £2000 to go on holiday, it would be immediately dismissed by brexiteers as scaremongering / "project fear".

DSR: I think Nil really sums up in this exchange exactly what idiocy and rubbish we have to deal with and this from a poster I wouldn't class as anywhere near an idiot except when it gets to Brexit discussions

[Jakubclaret]

DSR: I think Nil really sums up in this exchange exactly what idiocy and rubbish we have to deal with and this from a poster I wouldn't class as anywhere near an idiot except when it gets to Brexit discussions

Chances are you’re average working class Britain going abroad on holiday is a pipe dream, BB at Blackpool more realistic nowadays, with wages down & people struggling to find continuity of work due to a overcrowded job market competing with some people willing to accept lower pay. More people are getting into camping ect or short weekend breaks they simply cannot afford 2 weeks in the sun with a strained expenditure.

[nil_desperandum]

Plenty of Brtexiteers - nearly all of us, in fact - believe that we're right but accept that Remainers have a valid argument. Why are so many Remainers such arrogant, sneering people who refuse to accept another point of view?

I think that the majority of "remainers" do understand the "leave" argument and can see the "benefits" of leaving, but have weighed them up and concluded quite quickly that what we gain is massively outweighed by what we stand to lose.
There are 2 points however that "leavers" have never seemed to understand
1. The EU can't offer us a deal that gives us a better deal than we currently have. (i.e. they can't agree to a deal that gives us an advantage over the other 27). If they do then it risks the whole future stability of Europe.
2. We have aligned ourselves with the EU for 40 years, and most of our arrangements / treaties with them are generally acknowledged to be beneficial. We can't just walk away with "No deal" since we are not in any way geared up for it, and the EU 27 have known this since we prematurely invoked Article 50 with no strategic plan for exit. It's impossible to take an egg out of an omelette without starting all over again.

[JohnMcGreal]

Public support is rapidly falling away for Brexit. It's dead in the water.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -to-remain" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[burnleymik]

Plenty of Brtexiteers - nearly all of us, in fact - believe that we're right but accept that Remainers have a valid argument. Why are so many Remainers such arrogant, sneering people who refuse to accept another point of view?

There seem to be a couple of groups....

Remainers: Want us to remain, but have accepted the result of the Ref and have moved on.

Staunch remainers: Still coming to terms with the referendum result, still hoping we remain and still debate and argue for their side. They seem to accept their is opposing points of view.

Remoaners: Bitter, twisted, arrogant and ignorant. Have absolutely no empathy for any other point of view other than their own and their own-self importance doesn't allow them to consider any other argument from the other side of the debate. They try and justify everything in their mind by labeling people who disagree and trying to discredit them, rather than debate them. They cannot believe they didn't win the vote and search for every excuse under the sun, as to why that happened, without having the self-awareness to look at their own behaviour.

[quoonbeatz]

Call it a tax or whatever you like.

It should be every countries aim to have a policy for it to be cheaper for tourists to come to them than let people go and spend their money in others.

Yes I know it's impossible for all.

wtf.

not sure i've seen a more insular post than this and that's saying something for the brexit threads on here.

[burnleymik]

Public support is rapidly falling away for Brexit. It's dead in the water.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -to-remain" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Here is the company that carried out that analysis....



Set up in 2017, works on behalf of the EU and is based at the EU!

[dsr]

1. The EU can't offer us a deal that gives us a better deal than we currently have. (i.e. they can't agree to a deal that gives us an advantage over the other 27). If they do then it risks the whole future stability of Europe.
2. We have aligned ourselves with the EU for 40 years, and most of our arrangements / treaties with them are generally acknowledged to be beneficial. We can't just walk away with "No deal" since we are not in any way geared up for it, and the EU 27 have known this since we prematurely invoked Article 50 with no strategic plan for exit. It's impossible to take an egg out of an omelette without starting all over again.

1. Certainly I underestimated how intransigent the EU would be when it came to making a deal. The EU won't give the UK any sort of mutually beneficial deal; they prefer to play nasty and give nothing at all, because they're afraid that if other countries are given the option of a free trade organisation without the grand political union, they will pick it. Basically the politicians won't be seen to allow the people to reverse the political deals.
2. Having said that, the EU has no interest in preserving the generally acknowledged mutually beneficial treaties and arrangements. They prefer to make themselves poorer if it makes us relatively even worse off. Unfortunately I don't think the idiot Mrs May has realised that even yet.

Both those points are arguments to stay in the EU, because they'll be nasty to us if we don't; but they're both arguments to leave, because who wants to be in a club like that? The question is, is the UK big enough to survive and prosper as an independent country. General evidence of everywhere else in the world suggests (to me) that it is.