#politicslive

[Bordeauxclaret]

Christ that was embarrassing.

At least finally someone questioned him on his nonsense.

[nil_desperandum]

The reality of WTO

James Delingpole getting absolutely, totally rinsed by the most basic point about WTO. This guy though will be on numerous media outlets though and will continue to tell people that WTO is a viable option.

https://twitter.com/ladyhaja/status/1088594193054879744" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In normal times this type of car crash interview would be pivotal to the argument and the impact terminal for the policy and its proponents, but sadly in the current climate it will simply be ignored by a significant proportion of the population, and of course, a lot of the press.

[Lancasterclaret]

To be fair to all this, if its a co-ordinated media campaign to make Mays Deal actually the best one out there, its working a treat.

Be absolutely hilarious if Mays deal gets past and we then have to watch Corbynistas defending their hero latest total and utter failure to do anything to stop it.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Anyone read the Ivan Rogers speech linked the other day on this thread? It should be a must read for everyone in government right now.

I don’t know which one you refer to, but the key one in such a fast moving area is always the last one - this one he delivered on Wednesday

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/european-institut ... 012019.pdf

There is a lot of common sense but the bias filter always needs applying (he is very pro-EU and anti-May after leaving his plush job, so in areas of nuance where there is no right or wrong this needs bearing in mind). He is very critical of the EU’s approach in places though:

My favourite bit:

The EU is a difficult negotiating partner. It has treated this process as essentially a technocratic one of “de-accession” - the reverse of the process when one joins. That style works on accessions, because it’s an inevitable process of convergence on a known destination – the voluminous EU law book. And the EU then dictates the entire game and exhibits strategic patience.

But here we are heading to an unknown and contested destination. And the EU style of negotiating is inflexible. And in this negotiation, technocratic overreach in the departure of a major Member State may still end badly. The EU side too, at leader level, has to think harder about why, and about where it is going with the UK in the longer term.

Repeatedly saying “we never get anything coherent from you in London”, even if very often true, is not really enough.

[Rick_Muller]

To be fair to all this, if its a co-ordinated media campaign to make Mays Deal actually the best one out there, its working a treat.

I think you're right. I heard someone state "the best thing for the country is to make a deal" - I had to stop my self from shouting at the radio "No, the best thing for the country is to remain in the EU...!!!" but I'd have looked a tw@t shouting in the car on my drive to work.

[CrosspoolClarets]

By the way, on the This Week discussion on WTO terms, the bit most on here always miss (and many MPs too) is that there is a need to play up the likelihood of no deal in order to get a deal. Look at what Barnier is coming out with this week. We would have gained far more if the EU was genuinely fearful of no deal, which they aren’t thanks to our dim witted MPs.

This exposes the gross stupidity of Parliament taking control of an international treaty negotiation, which has always previously been a Government responsibility. Gina Millar has stitched our country up completely, and being clever she did it as a route to remaining.

People like that Delingpole chap probably don’t ardently believe it. He’s simply trying to pull May in that direction, knowing she will stop somewhere short of it.

[aggi]

Indeed, we didn't vote for Brexit in order for our parliament to have control over unelected civil servants.

[Lancasterclaret]

Yeah, Crosspools mask does slip a tad when things like that come up

We would have gained far more if the EU was genuinely fearful of no deal, which they aren’t thanks to our dim witted MPs.

What extra do you think we could have got? You keep forgetting that the EU four freedoms are completely non-negotiable and so are our red lines.

Within those constraints, Mays deal is the best out there.

[Rick_Muller]

https://www.justmakeitstop.co.uk/?fbcli ... NfDGQiCfXU" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[RingoMcCartney]

Last night's question time-

Biggest cheer for just get on with it deal or no Deal.

Biggest boo for extended article 50.

[RingoMcCartney]

Millions of working class , potentially former , Labour voters in the north west, north east, and midlands aren't as concerned of a "No Deal brexit" taken off the table as "No Future Remain" being left on it.

[RingoMcCartney]

PEOPLES VOTE-

THE BEST FORM OF DEMOCRACY MONEY CAN BUY.

[Lancasterclaret]

If we are at the stage where millions of workers think a "No Deal" Brexit isn't a disaster, then we have completely failed them as a country.

[RingoMcCartney]

Indeed, we didn't vote for Brexit in order for our parliament to have control over unelected civil servants.

We voted Leave and misguidedly expected parliament to accept and respect that vote and implament it's command.

We didn't expect the likes of yvette cooper , whose constituency voted Leave by around 70 odd % , to be part of a duplicitous cabal of anti democratic usurpers, to do anything in their power, even if it means one of their cohorts ripping up hundreds of years of parliamentary procedural precedent and protocol, try to thwart, upset and ultimately try and stop the command of the biggest single expression of democracy the nation has ever witnessed.

And the bad news for Remainers is that as it's come to a head. The every day Joe's who aren't as obsessed as us, are waking up after realising their trust in politicians to do what they told them to was totally misplaced. Which is seeing them now say more and more,

"We voted to Leave. Just bloody get on with it!!

[Quickenthetempo]

Indeed, we didn't vote for Brexit in order for our parliament to have control over unelected civil servants.

But I think people are finally realising just how bad our MPs are.

The working class can kiss my ass,
I've got the MPs job at last.

Burn it down and start again from scratch.

[Lancasterclaret]

Care to highlight the benefits of a "No Deal" to millions of workers Ringo?

This is your chance

[summitclaret]

Don't think they think that. They understand how deals are done. It's simple - don't rule out no deal just yet whilst discussions are ongoing with the EU. Caroline Flint was spot on on this week last night. She won't be voting for Y Cooper's anendment. Just needs a dozen or so labour mps to do the same.

Suggest Julie Cooper does the same if she wants to keep her seat.

[RingoMcCartney]

We voted Leave and misguidedly expected parliament to accept and respect that vote and implament it's command.

We didn't expect the likes of yvette cooper , whose constituency voted Leave by around 70 odd % , to be part of a duplicitous cabal of anti democratic usurpers, to do anything in their power, even if it means one of their cohorts ripping up hundreds of years of parliamentary procedural precedent and protocol, try to thwart, upset and ultimately try and stop the command of the biggest single expression of democracy the nation has ever witnessed.

And the bad news for Remainers is that as it's come to a head. The every day Joe's who aren't as obsessed as us, are waking up after realising their trust in politicians to do what they told them to was totally misplaced. Which Is seeing them now say more and more,

"We voted to Leave. Just bloody get on with it!!

[RingoMcCartney]

Care to highlight the benefits of a "No Deal" to millions of workers Ringo?

This is your chance

Prior to the referendum we were told that there'd be an economic catastrophe. And yet people still voted to leave. Remoaners simply don't accept that for the majority, promises of economic doom are not as important as ending the status quo.


Care to highlight what no brexit will have on people's trust in democracy being geographically, permanently and trans-generationally shattered ?

[martin_p]

I think Wrongo has actually gone mad!

[martin_p]

Care to highlight the benefits of a "No Deal" to millions of workers Ringo?

This is your chance

No chance he’ll answer that.

[RingoMcCartney]

I think Wrongo has actually gone mad!

Not as mad frustrated and mutton headed as you've sounded in you're inability to accept I've been proven right about Bercow!

Grrrrrrrr!

[martin_p]

Prior to the referendum we were told that there'd be an economic catastrophe. And yet people still voted to leave. Remoaners simply don't accept that for the majority, promises of economic doom are not as important as ending the status quo.


Care to highlight what no brexit will have on people's trust in democracy being geographically, permanently and trans-generationally shattered ?

Yep, as I said, no chance he’ll answer that.

[RingoMcCartney]

I'm signing out now ladies, gentlemen and mutton head, ive a busy old day.

Thought for the weekend-

Is a communist just an impatient socialist?

[Lancasterclaret]

Care to highlight the benefits of a "No Deal" Brexit to the millions of workers Ringo?

[Quickenthetempo]

What might happen-

Supermarkets struggle to keep prices down with tariffs so local shops selling local produce boom.
Super firms struggle that rely on trade from overseas. Local firms prosper who deal with the local community.
Local manufacturers get inundated with work as demand goes through the roof.

In short it's better for the working class who deal with the local community rather than global, elite firms.

This is why I can't get my head around all the lefties on here sticking up for the Big business and corrupt EU. It's going against all their principles isn't it?

[Lancasterclaret]

Er, right

I honestly don't know where to even start with that. If that is your sincere and honest belief in the benefits of a "No Deal" Brexit then you've completely failed to understand anything since 2016.

[dsr]

Care to highlight the benefits of a "No Deal" Brexit to the millions of workers Ringo?

The main benefit is obviously that we get out of the EU in accordance with the referendum.

To you, it's all about the great god Money. Other factors are in play.

But as you already pointed out, tariffs on imports and exports will rise by about 3% on average, so it's as if we had a bit of inflation on a small percentage of our purchases and sales; and the exchange rate will fluctuate, so it's as if the exchange rate will be variable just like it always has been. If money is all that concerns you, those are disadvantages. Are they crippling? That's where the difference of opinion comes in.

[Quickenthetempo]

Er, right

I honestly don't know where to even start with that. If that is your sincere and honest belief in the benefits of a "No Deal" Brexit then you've completely failed to understand anything since 2016.

In your opinion Lancs.

If you genuinely do know all the answers you are wasted on here, there's some very well paid jobs out there with stupid people in them. Make yourself available.

Our opinions on here make absolute diddly squat difference to anything in the real world.

[Burnley Ace]

I think Wrongo has actually gone mad!

Has he had his internet privileges restored or was it just a day off to avoid answering those difficult questions?

Come on Ringo - Tick Tock!

[Mala591]

Time for the EU to make a bold move?

And offer to put a 3 year time limit on the backstop. If trade negotiations have not been successfully concluded by then then we leave on WTO rules.

[AndrewJB]

I don’t know which one you refer to, but the key one in such a fast moving area is always the last one - this one he delivered on Wednesday

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/european-institut ... 012019.pdf

There is a lot of common sense but the bias filter always needs applying (he is very pro-EU and anti-May after leaving his plush job, so in areas of nuance where there is no right or wrong this needs bearing in mind). He is very critical of the EU’s approach in places though:

My favourite bit:

The EU is a difficult negotiating partner. It has treated this process as essentially a technocratic one of “de-accession” - the reverse of the process when one joins. That style works on accessions, because it’s an inevitable process of convergence on a known destination – the voluminous EU law book. And the EU then dictates the entire game and exhibits strategic patience.

But here we are heading to an unknown and contested destination. And the EU style of negotiating is inflexible. And in this negotiation, technocratic overreach in the departure of a major Member State may still end badly. The EU side too, at leader level, has to think harder about why, and about where it is going with the UK in the longer term.

Repeatedly saying “we never get anything coherent from you in London”, even if very often true, is not really enough.

I haven't (yet) read your link, but to add to your quote, he also mentions in the earlier speech that Britain allowed the EU to set the process by which all of this takes place. Our government has been woefully negligent in the way we've approached these conversations, and whatever form brexit takes is going to fall short of the expectations of the public to such a degree that we should halt the process and start again.

[summitclaret]

They allowed the EU to dictate so as the get a soft brexit. Just like the backstop allows the EU to dictate rhe trade discussions. Hence why the erg and dup won't allow a cop out deal. It was nit negligence it was planned with the EU. Leave voters won't have it.

[aggi]

The main benefit is obviously that we get out of the EU in accordance with the referendum.

To you, it's all about the great god Money. Other factors are in play.

But as you already pointed out, tariffs on imports and exports will rise by about 3% on average, so it's as if we had a bit of inflation on a small percentage of our purchases and sales; and the exchange rate will fluctuate, so it's as if the exchange rate will be variable just like it always has been. If money is all that concerns you, those are disadvantages. Are they crippling? That's where the difference of opinion comes in.

The average part there is a a bit of a kicker. It obviously means that many are very low, but others, such as lamb at 40%, are very high. A Brexit on WTO terms will likely kill off a large part of our sheep farming industry for instance. (Admittedly we won't be able to export any meat to the EU until we're approved, which very few countries are, so the tariffs may be a bit irrelevant.)

[AndrewJB]

What might happen-

Supermarkets struggle to keep prices down with tariffs so local shops selling local produce boom.
Super firms struggle that rely on trade from overseas. Local firms prosper who deal with the local community.
Local manufacturers get inundated with work as demand goes through the roof.

In short it's better for the working class who deal with the local community rather than global, elite firms.

This is why I can't get my head around all the lefties on here sticking up for the Big business and corrupt EU. It's going against all their principles isn't it?

Local firms and multinational firms don't exist within separate bubbles within the UK economy. A hit to multinationals, or multinational manufacturers that up sticks and move out of Britain (as this seems to be a graver concern) will be felt in the wider and local economy. It's not about sticking up for big business against small business - as small businesses are a greater benefit to the economy, but if you want to improve things for small business then there are concrete steps to do so, rather than introducing hardship into the economy for big business and saying: "there, that should even things out"

[Burnley Ace]

The main benefit is obviously that we get out of the EU in accordance with the referendum.

But as you already pointed out, tariffs on imports and exports will rise by about 3% on average, so it's as if we had a bit of inflation on a small percentage of our purchases and sales; and the exchange rate will fluctuate, so it's as if the exchange rate will be variable just like it always has been. If money is all that concerns you, those are disadvantages. Are they crippling? That's where the difference of opinion comes in.

Where do you get this 3% average from? Is it the average Most Favoured Nation tariff for non agricultural products? Cars for example is 10%

The tariffs on food for example are much higher. Take Lamb for example - 40% is exported to the EU (97% of our lamb/mutton exports are to the EU) we don’t have access to USA or China and the increase in tariffs is in double figures.

Skimmed milk -74% tariff, 63% on butter, 53% on wheat, 43% on Cheddar and up to 160% on the value of frozen beef carcasses.

You also haven’t taken into consideration the non tariff barriers or that exports of Services which is covered by GATS not tariffs and again puts U.K. at a huge disadvantage as well as still being under the ECJ etc.

[Lancasterclaret]

My concern from Day One has been the economic impact (with a bit of social unrest thrown in)

I'll be British whatver, I'll be English whatever, that bit is a given for me

From an economic point of view, can you please explain the benefits of the "No Deal" Brexit

Thanks Quick, I probably didn't mean to be that harsh btw

[AndrewJB]

They allowed the EU to dictate so as the get a soft brexit. Just like the backstop allows the EU to dictate rhe trade discussions. Hence why the erg and dup won't allow a cop out deal. It was nit negligence it was planned with the EU. Leave voters won't have it.

David Davis appears to be the one who capitulated on day one on the subject of agenda setting, so I can't see how that was linked to wanting a soft brexit. I thought David Davis was supposed to be a dogged negotiator? The government were negligent in not having a cohesive plan for leaving. They didn't have a cohesive plan because they were unable to agree among themselves, and also because they didn't consult more widely. As Rogers says in the link; Leavers can't on the one hand complain that the EU is a large controlling organisation that has seeped into every part of UK society - and then turn around and expect we easily and swiftly untangle ourselves from this.

Beyond this, neither the DUP nor the ERG have ever come up with credible ideas. The ones the ERG have unveiled (and they've unveiled a few) have exploded on contact with reality. It's getting to the point now where they might as well just admit that Britain in economic crisis suits the piratical form of capitalism they all espouse. What makes me laugh is that in their push for the "purest possible brexit" they risk the defeat of brexit itself.

[dsr]

Where do you get this 3% average from?

Lancaster quoted it. He's hot on sources, and he's not likely to understate it, so I took it as being accurate. (I would have thought from anecdotal evidence that it was higher, but evidently not.)

[uni_queue]

Where do you get this 3% average from? Is it the average Most Favoured Nation tariff for non agricultural products? Cars for example is 10%

The tariffs on food for example are much higher. Take Lamb for example - 40% is exported to the EU (97% of our lamb/mutton exports are to the EU) we don’t have access to USA or China and the increase in tariffs is in double figures.

Skimmed milk -74% tariff, 63% on butter, 53% on wheat, 43% on Cheddar and up to 160% on the value of frozen beef carcasses.

You also haven’t taken into consideration the non tariff barriers or that exports of Services which is covered by GATS not tariffs and again puts U.K. at a huge disadvantage as well as still being under the ECJ etc.

and in fact since services account for about 80% of our economic output - and generate a trade surplus with the EU , it is the services sector that will potentially take the biggest hit on a no deal - a fact which seems to have escaped most commentary - presumably because politicians can "see" goods and manufactured product wheras "services" are less tangible .

[Lancasterclaret]

I think I got it from a link to a EU-USA advisory tariff thingy DSR

It not ideal because its EU-US only and obviously some items have massive tariffs and others have none

[dsr]

A hit to multinationals, or multinational manufacturers that up sticks and move out of Britain (as this seems to be a graver concern) will be felt in the wider and local economy.

But if there are multinationals who move out because of the tariffs on exports to the EU, there will also be multinationals who will move in because of tariffs to the UK. There are mirror image problems so there will be mirror image solutions.

[Lancasterclaret]

Good analysis of the recent euphoria amongst the ERG about the EU softening the Irish border issue

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/10 ... 7689055232" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[CrosspoolClarets]

Yeah, Crosspools mask does slip a tad when things like that come up

What extra do you think we could have got? You keep forgetting that the EU four freedoms are completely non-negotiable and so are our red lines.

Within those constraints, Mays deal is the best out there.

You used to make sense on these topics Lancs, but less so recently. You know very well that I have also agreed May’s deal is the best option, IF the backstop is removed, because it may be unlikely to kick in but it will be the starting point for the future trade deal. For all you say about the 4 freedoms, that removal is beginning to happen and a max fac deal may take it’s place. Let’s see who is right about how fixed these freedoms are. If it turns out there is flexibility, our MPs are stupid to have declared their hand publicly.

Indeed, we didn't vote for Brexit in order for our parliament to have control over unelected civil servants.

Assuming this was also aimed at me, it is very simple to think that more Parliament is always good, but there are pros and cons. The way our country has worked for centuries, very successfully, in foreign matters is for the Executive to have the decision making and negotiating power (over the unelected civil servants, as you say), and for Parliament to exercise scrutiny via PMQs and via the Select Committees. It has worked fine for centuries. Changing it now just hands our cards to the foreign power with whom we are dealing.

[Lancasterclaret]

You are still thinking that the four freedoms are negotiable.

Cool, you just crack on!

[Bacchus]

This is as simple and comprehensive an explanation of why WTO would be a disaster as you're likely to find. On the other hand, some people who weren't even alive at the time say that we got through the war so we can get through Brexit so I suppose it's all down to personal opinion who you believe.

https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/sta ... 4545363973

[Quickenthetempo]

Local firms and multinational firms don't exist within separate bubbles within the UK economy. A hit to multinationals, or multinational manufacturers that up sticks and move out of Britain (as this seems to be a graver concern) will be felt in the wider and local economy. It's not about sticking up for big business against small business - as small businesses are a greater benefit to the economy, but if you want to improve things for small business then there are concrete steps to do so, rather than introducing hardship into the economy for big business and saying: "there, that should even things out"

The small business owners I know all voted leave. For a variety of reasons. They can't all be committing business suicide can they? They must know something about what keeps their business taking over?

[uni_queue]

Get rid if the bits that individually you dont like - and hope that the bits someone else doesnt like dont affect you!!!
That seems to be about as good as the logic gets

[summitclaret]

Well we now have the Graham Brady amendment which if passed will put the ball firmly back in the EU's court. Id Bercow does not take this one first there will be a riot.

[Lancasterclaret]

Yay, lets waste more time by pretending that EU will just agree to another change 100% designed to heal the divisions in the Conservative Party, rather than actually move things on.