Covid-19

[dsr]

They’ve included backdated figures from wales and the meat factories from several weeks ago.

This is the actual flow of things on dates things happened not dates they were added to reports. Makes a huge difference.

Bearing in mind that the actual number of total deaths per day from all causes is close to the top of that graph, it shows what a tiny percentage of deaths are being caused by coronavirus at present.

[UnderSeige]

They’ve included backdated figures from wales and the meat factories from several weeks ago.

This is the actual flow of things on dates things happened not dates they were added to reports. Makes a huge difference.

It's now 398 on the worldometers site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Seven day moving average has risen from 597 to 598 over the last seven days. Hardly a peak.

[Long Time Lurker]

New figures have indicated a significant rise in the Coronavirus cases attributed to Pendle, notably in Nelson and Brierfield.

https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire- ... s-18597864

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/18 ... ion-rates/

It is a concern, but not a cause for immediate panic. However, following the advised safety protocols is in the best interests of everyone.

More worrying was this article

https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire- ... 9-18586845

If that study is correct then the strategy for developing " Herd Immunity ", which is what we appear to have reverted to, will be untenable. The backbone of the " Herd Immunity " theory revolves around the natural development of antibodies in response to catching the virus. If natural antibodies decline at the rapid rate this study suggests they will only offer short term protection.

Stay sensible and stay safe

[cricketfieldclarets]

New figures have indicated a significant rise in the Coronavirus cases attributed to Pendle, notably in Nelson and Brierfield.

https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire- ... s-18597864

https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/18 ... ion-rates/

It is a concern, but not a cause for immediate panic. However, following the advised safety protocols is in the best interests of everyone.

More worrying was this article

https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire- ... 9-18586845

If that study is correct then the strategy for developing " Herd Immunity ", which is what we appear to have reverted to, will be untenable. The backbone of the " Herd Immunity " theory revolves around the natural development of antibodies in response to catching the virus. If natural antibodies decline at the rapid rate this study suggests they will only offer short term protection.

Stay sensible and stay safe

8 months into the pandemic and there hasnt been concrete proof of a single person being reinfected.

[dsr]

If that study is correct then the strategy for developing " Herd Immunity ", which is what we appear to have reverted to, will be untenable. The backbone of the " Herd Immunity " theory revolves around the natural development of antibodies in response to catching the virus. If natural antibodies decline at the rapid rate this study suggests they will only offer short term protection.

Stay sensible and stay safe

As a child I was taught that the reason for immunity was that once you had had a disease, your body had learned to produce antibodies and would produce a load more at short notice if needed. Is that no longer accepted truth? Is the belief now that your body has to retain all the antibodies it has ever had?

Easy enough for a scientist to check - count the measles antibodies, say in someone who had it twenty years ago vs. someone who had it last week. I'm sure it's been done - anyone know of a link?

[martin_p]

Clearest indication yet that we’ll be wearing masks in offices in a few weeks as Matt Hancock announces that there are no plans to make people wear masks in offices.

You could almost hear ‘the science changing’ as he was speaking!

[UnderSeige]

We played Sunderland this season in front of around 7,000 which is about 33% capacity. Pre Season even less fans usually. As are early league cup games which dont have the same following sunderland do.

I am sure all stands were open too.

I think you would need to compare over a whole season really. In the mid eighties crowds were as low as 5-6 thousand. In the early 90's, the attendance was 7-8 thousand on average. In the early noughties, with more or less the current ground, it was around 9-10 thousand. I would think that these matches would have provided a substantial proportion of the clubs income during these times.

I'm not sure how the 'cost of putting on a match' in the lower leagues in those times compares with the 'Premiership during a Pandemic'. I would think that they are now substantially higher.

If the club decided on such a course of action and chose the 'lucky 25%' (or perhaps 40%) from people who are less at risk from the virus, they would be selecting primarily young people. Teenagers would be first in the queue. Many of these would be paying the lower level concession ticket prices. On the other hand there would be no pensioner concessions attending.

[Long Time Lurker]

As a child I was taught that the reason for immunity was that once you had had a disease, your body had learned to produce antibodies and would produce a load more at short notice if needed. Is that no longer accepted truth? Is the belief now that your body has to retain all the antibodies it has ever had?

Easy enough for a scientist to check - count the measles antibodies, say in someone who had it twenty years ago vs. someone who had it last week. I'm sure it's been done - anyone know of a link?

Sort of, it isn't just antibodies that contribute towards lasting immunity. T-cells play a major role, so a person with depleted antibodies could still fight off a new infection. Some repeat infection cases have been already been reported, but numbers are low. However, the relatively short time span of the pandemic ( impacted by lockdowns ) and the absence of full scale testing in some countries means the question is yet to receive a definitive answer. Studies are being conducted, but it is to early to say either way.

Given that Science is playing catch up I can't see a problem with advocating a cautious and responsible approach to going about daily life. I mean what is the opposite outlook, a reckless and care free disregard for what are simple adjustments to how we conduct ourselves ?

[UnderSeige]

As a child I was taught that the reason for immunity was that once you had had a disease, your body had learned to produce antibodies and would produce a load more at short notice if needed. Is that no longer accepted truth? Is the belief now that your body has to retain all the antibodies it has ever had?

Easy enough for a scientist to check - count the measles antibodies, say in someone who had it twenty years ago vs. someone who had it last week. I'm sure it's been done - anyone know of a link?

You're more or less right but it's not quite that simple. I'll try to explain.

• Once your immune system overcomes a virus it produces antibodies and some kind of 'memory function' that enables it to recognise the virus and produce the antibodies should it encounter the infection again.

• Over the following months, if it does not encounter the virus again the body sheds the antibodies. However, it retains the memory.

• If the antibodies have gone the next time you encounter the infection you are reliant on your 'memory function'. Whilst the virus is multiplying within your 'receptor cells', the immune system is frantically searching for the correct 'memory cells' (or whatever they are) to produce the antibodies.

• When the 'memory function' finds the required stuff to produce the antibodies, billions of antibodies are produced to kill off the virus.

• If the viral load that the body receives is high (e.g. someone coughs near your face) the virus makes you sick before the 'memory function' can produce the antibodies to kill off the virus'. Eventually though the antibodies kill the virus.

• This is why you can catch a cold (some of which are coronavirus) in early winter and a second cold in later winter.

There have been studies of 'actual people' who have recovered from the virus to find out what is happening with the antibodies. Korea, Japan, China and now Kings College are coming to the same conclusion that 'herd immunity will be difficult to achieve by just letting the virus rip through the population. It could take many years with a lot of repeat sicknesses.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/asymptom ... -1.5629172

Not only are we learning people can contract the virus a second time, it's looking like a meaningful number of patients can get it even more times than that. And successive infections appear to have symptoms that are every bit as intense as the first.

Even among those who 'recover' -- even those cases that were asymptomatic -- numerous patients display long term organ damage (heart, lungs, kidneys, etc). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfDpuouYUFc

My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes?
https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/ ... d-immunity

Also.

• Some viruses can go dormant in the body and re-emerge in a different form at a later time in life. Chickenpox-shingles is one example. Polio is another.

• Viruses can also transmute into different forms sometimes requiring the immune system to re-learn.

[UnderSeige]

Not good news for those who have had the virus without knowing it - and possibly younger people.

Newsweek
Coronavirus Damages Lungs of Asymptomatic Patients Too, Medical Examiner Says
Amedical examiner in Florida has warned that individuals who contract the novel coronavirus and are asymptomatic still appear to have lung damage.

"My gosh, I really don't know how to say it without being gruesome, it just destroys the lungs," Dr. Jon Thogmartin, the medical examiner for Pinellas and Pasco County said, WTVT-TV reported on Monday. "Let me just say that."

Thogmartin cited his own experience doing autopsies and a study published earlier this month by Scripps Research, a nonprofit medical research facility. That analysis suggested that up to 45 percent of those infected with the novel coronavirus were asymptomatic, while also noting that these individuals appeared to suffer lung damage.

"When the person dies, you can find lungs that don't look and feel like lungs anymore," Thogmartin said. https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-da ... ys-1514084

[Bigbopper]

In terms of infection rate Blackburn with Darwen lies second only to Leicester. This gives me another reason to avoid the place.

[Grumps]

In terms of infection rate Blackburn with Darwen lies second only to Leicester. This gives me another reason to avoid the place.

Unless you've got updated figs, pendle is higher

[UnderSeige]

"It is expected that supporters will be allowed to return to English league stadiums in some form from September"
https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ext-season

[ksrclaret]

As a child I was taught that the reason for immunity was that once you had had a disease, your body had learned to produce antibodies and would produce a load more at short notice if needed. Is that no longer accepted truth? Is the belief now that your body has to retain all the antibodies it has ever had?

Easy enough for a scientist to check - count the measles antibodies, say in someone who had it twenty years ago vs. someone who had it last week. I'm sure it's been done - anyone know of a link?

It’s exactly right that antibodies don’t need to be retained in the blood after an infection, it is memory B cells that circulate in the blood for up to 30 years after the initial infection. When these memory B cells encounter the pathogen for a second time, they immediately divide into plasma B cells which produce and secrete the antibody against the specific pathogen.

I’ve seen a lot in the news about antibodies and T cells being the key to immunity, but I’ve seen very little mention of memory B cells. To my knowledge, these are the key to long term immunity.

[UnderSeige]

This chap is an example of re-infection.

Likely reinfected...when will this end
Tested Positive - Me
2.5 months in recovery almost all symptoms coming to a finish. Diagnosed positive at the ER and then tested negative for antibodies 7 weeks later. My coworker needed help driving and so I evaluated it low risk, it was just him and me in the car. I was in the car with him, no a/c, for ab 3 hours. Then 6 hours later my eyes are bright red and streaming tears just like in the first week of my covid battle. Runny nose too which I hadn't had since the first two weeks. Headache, some brain fog, and soar throat. Now I'm experiencing some chest pressure and small cough. This is a f*****g nightmare and all long termers need to be warned, do not listen to the govt or any news source. We will get it again, maybe not as bad but we are NOT immune. Be careful. I'm so defeated I don't want to do this anymore. It's horrible.

[Grumps]

"It is expected that supporters will be allowed to return to English league stadiums in some form from September"
https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ext-season

Good luck sorting that one out, almost impossible I would suggest.

[cricketfieldclarets]

"It is expected that supporters will be allowed to return to English league stadiums in some form from September"
https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ext-season

Had heard this was quite likely. It had started to make an interesting debate on another thread. Positive news indeed.

[UnderSeige]

Coronavirus antibodies can start to fade away within weeks, according to a new study which puts a 'nail in the coffin' in the idea of herd immunity
King's College London research found that the presence of antibodies peaked three weeks after symptoms appeared, before fading away. It followed a Spanish study last week that also showed antibody protection rapidly declining in many patients. One of the UK study's authors said it put "another nail in the coffin of the dangerous concept of herd immunity." https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ?r=US&IR=T

[cricketfieldclarets]

Coronavirus antibodies can start to fade away within weeks, according to a new study which puts a 'nail in the coffin' in the idea of herd immunity
King's College London research found that the presence of antibodies peaked three weeks after symptoms appeared, before fading away. It followed a Spanish study last week that also showed antibody protection rapidly declining in many patients. One of the UK study's authors said it put "another nail in the coffin of the dangerous concept of herd immunity." https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ?r=US&IR=T

In the extremely unlikely event that there is no immunity we may as well crack on now then and get back to normal

[cricketfieldclarets]

This chap is an example of re-infection.

That's purely anecdotal. No hard evidence or across the board. 12m+ confirmed as infected. And how many confirmed as reinfected?

That one person is 0.000008333333333333334%

[UnderSeige]

The findings suggest one vaccine won't be enough
In an interview with Sky News reported by The Guardian, professor Robin Shattock of Imperial College London said that while reinfection would probably be "less severe" because of people retaining "immune memory," the risk of them passing on the virus meant they would likely have to receive boosts of the vaccine on a regular basis.https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ?r=US&IR=T

[UnderSeige]

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government has denied initially trying to pursue a strategy of herd immunity before it was warned that it would lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.

An Italian health minister last month said Johnson revealed his intention to pursue herd immunity in a phone call with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte on March 13, a little more than a week before the UK entered a countrywide lockdown.

On the same day, Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser to the UK government, said he believed the UK would be able to achieve herd immunity.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ?r=US&IR=T

[UnderSeige]

That's purely anecdotal. No hard evidence or across the board. 12m+ confirmed as infected. And how many confirmed as reinfected?

That one person is 0.000008333333333333334%

I think that it's one of those where we will have to watch this space and not be too positive of negative.

Rapid Loss of COVID-19 Antibodies

Studies Report Rapid Loss of COVID-19 Antibodies
The results, while preliminary, suggest that survivors of SARS-CoV-2 infection may be susceptible to reinfection within weeks or months. https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opin ... ies-67650

Kings College London Study
Covid-19 antibodies can decline over time, research suggests

Immunity to Covid-19 could be lost in months, UK study suggests
Exclusive: King’s College London team found steep drops in patients’ antibody levels three months after infection https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-suggests

Spanish study last week that also showed antibody protection rapidly declining in many patients.
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-herd ... 378.html [url]https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ?r=US&IR=T[/url]

Doctor claiming that his patient caught COVID Twice
https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/ ... d-immunity

WWE announcer Kayla Braxton says she had coronavirus twice
https://nypost.com/2020/06/25/wwe-annou ... us-twice/?

Woman tests positive for Covid-19 twice. Hear what she has to say.
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/health/2 ... tv-vpx.cnn

Here's another Anecdotal.
https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19positiv ... einfected/

[cricketfieldclarets]

In more positive news. Peer reviewed evidence that T cells play a major part in immunity both short and long term.

[mdd2]

Despite the possibility of getting it twice it is likely that the second dose would be milder as our system would be more quickly gear up to attack the virus unless the next Covid-19 virus had mutated sufficiently to appear as a new type of infection to our immune system.
Some potential good news on the vaccine too.
From Mail on line on the Oxford vaccine with the lead researcher saying by September she is 80% confident we could have a vaccine. Theirs seems to be producing both an antibody and T cell response. T cells are the elephant in the immune system (they never forget) so it is possible the vaccine will work for several years at least

[FactualFrank]

In the extremely unlikely event that there is no immunity we may as well crack on now then and get back to normal

You'll have to explain that one.

[Grumps]

In terms of infection rate Blackburn with Darwen lies second only to Leicester. This gives me another reason to avoid the place.

Nope, pendle still second on list according to BBC news at lunchtime

[cricketfieldclarets]

Despite the possibility of getting it twice it is likely that the second dose would be milder as our system would be more quickly gear up to attack the virus unless the next Covid-19 virus had mutated sufficiently to appear as a new type of infection to our immune system.
Some potential good news on the vaccine too.
From Mail on line on the Oxford vaccine with the lead researcher saying by September she is 80% confident we could have a vaccine. Theirs seems to be producing both an antibody and T cell response. T cells are the elephant in the immune system (they never forget) so it is possible the vaccine will work for several years at least

Excellent, positive news.

[cricketfieldclarets]

You'll have to explain that one.

The reality is that there is / will be some immunity. Its almost certain there will be.

But lets say there isnt. In that case its almost certain that a vaccine wont work. So we may as well let everyone out now.

But for clarity, I think there is / will be immunity and is / will be a succesful vaccine developed. So continuing to be sensible for now is the right approach.

[tiger76]

Scottish government daily briefing: Key points

There have been no Covid-19 deaths in preceding 24 hours for seventh day in row

Weekly NRS figures show 4,187 deaths now confirmed linked to Covid-19 which is up 13 - this includes deaths without a positive test

There were three days with no Covid admissions to hospital last week

Since 26 June, we've had six days in total where there have been no confirmed cases of the virus admitted to hospital.

The total number of deaths in Scotland from all causes last week was 56 below the five-year average. That's the third week in a row the total number of deaths has been below the five -year average.

Last week was the 11th week in a row that the number of deaths from Covid has fallen.

And only 5 new positive cases reported in Scotland today.

So amongst all the doom and gloom being spouted on this thread, there is plenty of good news to report.

[UnderSeige]

Despite the possibility of getting it twice it is likely that the second dose would be milder as our system would be more quickly gear up to attack the virus unless the next Covid-19 virus had mutated sufficiently to appear as a new type of infection to our immune system.
Some potential good news on the vaccine too.
From Mail on line on the Oxford vaccine with the lead researcher saying by September she is 80% confident we could have a vaccine. Theirs seems to be producing both an antibody and T cell response. T cells are the elephant in the immune system (they never forget) so it is possible the vaccine will work for several years at least

If the vaccine will last for several years that is terrific news. The news that it could be ready by September is very old news but it's good to hear that they are still saying it. A few weeks ago I read that we should have a good idea about whether it will be ready in September/October by the end of July. It looks like we will know sometime in August now.

It might be clear by the end of August whether or not the vaccine is effective. A single successful trial showing efficacy would allow a regulator to approve the vaccine for emergency use – something that would probably pave the way for use in high-risk groups. That could happen in October. https://inews.co.uk/news/science/corona ... als-497704

An article by Peston four hours ago says that : "I am hearing there will be positive news soon (perhaps tomorrow) on initial trials of the Oxford Covid-19 vaccine that is backed by AstraZeneca".... "That said, the efficacy will only be properly established in the large phase III programme that is under way in the viral epicentre of Brazil, to deliver a large database that assesses safety as well as efficacy". https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-15/pos ... ert-peston

[UnderSeige]

Despite the possibility of getting it twice it is likely that the second dose would be milder as our system would be more quickly gear up to attack the virus unless the next Covid-19 virus had mutated sufficiently to appear as a new type of infection to our immune system.
Some potential good news on the vaccine too.
From Mail on line on the Oxford vaccine with the lead researcher saying by September she is 80% confident we could have a vaccine. Theirs seems to be producing both an antibody and T cell response. T cells are the elephant in the immune system (they never forget) so it is possible the vaccine will work for several years at least

It depends on the initial dose of the virus that you receive. A very small dose (e.g. by touching a virus infected surface) would take time to multiply. While that is going on the immune system (macrophage, t-cells, cytokins and eventually antibodies) would be alerted. It would then quickly smash the virus to pieces (in the back of the net).

On the other hand, if the initial dose is a high dose (e.g. breathing in millions of particles from the air where someone has just sneezed) the virus would already be at work before the immune system gets into gear. The patient becomes sick. However, you wouldn't expect it to last for weeks like it can on the first infection.

[Spijed]

In more positive news. Peer reviewed evidence that T cells play a major part in immunity both short and long term.

Strange how our bodies have little immunity to a cold.

[UnderSeige]

The reality is that there is / will be some immunity. Its almost certain there will be.

But lets say there isnt. In that case its almost certain that a vaccine wont work. So we may as well let everyone out now.

But for clarity, I think there is / will be immunity and is / will be a succesful vaccine developed. So continuing to be sensible for now is the right approach.

The reality is that there is/will be full immunity eventually. If people are getting sick two or more times, as research is beginning to show, then herd immunity would take years if not decades without interventions.

This doesn't mean that a vaccine won't work. It might mean however, that a repeat vaccine is required. If, for example the antibodies only last for three months, you would need a vaccine every three months. These early vaccines might not even stop you from getting sick. They will however greatly reduce the level of symptoms and speed up the recovery time at the very least (ask the monkeys in the Oxford trial).

Sometime next year the big companies (e.g. GSK) with decades of vaccine experience will likely be providing much stronger and longer lasting vaccines. They add an adjuvant (toxic material) to the vaccine which super alerts the immune system. They do this with flu vaccines. These are unlikely to be available until late next year.

The answer to letting everyone out now is USA and Brazil.

Stay realistically positive cricketfield. We could well be over the worst of it.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Strange how our bodies have little immunity to a cold.

Or perhaps LOTS of immunity hence its miniscule effects!

[cricketfieldclarets]

The reality is that there is/will be full immunity eventually. If people are getting sick two or more times, as research is beginning to show, then herd immunity would take years if not decades without interventions.

This doesn't mean that a vaccine won't work. It might mean however, that a repeat vaccine is required. If, for example the antibodies only last for three months, you would need a vaccine every three months. These early vaccines might not even stop you from getting sick. They will however greatly reduce the level of symptoms and speed up the recovery time at the very least (ask the monkeys in the Oxford trial).

Sometime next year the big companies (e.g. GSK) with decades of vaccine experience will likely be providing much stronger and longer lasting vaccines. They add an adjuvant (toxic material) to the vaccine which super alerts the immune system. They do this with flu vaccines. These are unlikely to be available until late next year.

The answer to letting everyone out now is USA and Brazil.

Stay realistically positive cricketfield. We could well be over the worst of it.

Exactly. My point was if there's no immunity and no vaccine at all we may as well stop the lockdown. But both of those things are likely to be false.

I'm positive and optimistic. More so than ever. And avoiding the news and main stream media gives us all reason to be positive.

But we need to remain cautious, wary and sensible.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Wednesday update

[dsr]

The reality is that there is/will be full immunity eventually. If people are getting sick two or more times, as research is beginning to show, then herd immunity would take years if not decades without interventions.

This doesn't mean that a vaccine won't work. It might mean however, that a repeat vaccine is required. If, for example the antibodies only last for three months, you would need a vaccine every three months. These early vaccines might not even stop you from getting sick. They will however greatly reduce the level of symptoms and speed up the recovery time at the very least (ask the monkeys in the Oxford trial).

Sometime next year the big companies (e.g. GSK) with decades of vaccine experience will likely be providing much stronger and longer lasting vaccines. They add an adjuvant (toxic material) to the vaccine which super alerts the immune system. They do this with flu vaccines. These are unlikely to be available until late next year.

The answer to letting everyone out now is USA and Brazil.

Stay realistically positive cricketfield. We could well be over the worst of it.

People get measles twice. I think we can be fairly sure that having coronavirus once does not give full immunity to everyone in the world against having it again. But from the very few apparent cases where it has happened, there is a very good chance that (like measles) you are immune to a second dose unless you're one of the very unlucky few.

[bfcjg]

I think us over 50's will be getting a jab in October.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/oxford-corona ... 09645.html
It was posted on here months ago that this one looks like a runner.

[Wile E Coyote]

might have been discussed on here, but why are we being asked to wear masks now, but pub goers do not have to.
in essence, they can occupy a bar, then leave and go to tesco where they are obliged to don a facemask.

[cricketfieldclarets]

might have been discussed on here, but why are we being asked to wear masks now, but pub goers do not have to.
in essence, they can occupy a bar, then leave and go to tesco where they are obliged to don a facemask.

There was an explanation that wearing a mask in a setting like a supermarket where you briefly pass people will offer protection.

But in a pub where you are sat for some time surrounded by people constantly the mask isnt effective.

How much truth is in that god knows.

The inconsistent messaging especially on masks has been the problem. I said right at the start that eventually they will enforce mask wearing. Just didn’t want to at the beginning when hospitals didn’t have enough.

[dsr]

There was an explanation that wearing a mask in a setting like a supermarket where you briefly pass people will offer protection.

But in a pub where you are sat for some time surrounded by people constantly the mask isnt effective.

How much truth is in that god knows.

The inconsistent messaging especially on masks has been the problem. I said right at the start that eventually they will enforce mask wearing. Just didn’t want to at the beginning when hospitals didn’t have enough.

The problem is that if they are enforcing it now for coronavirus when it is a tiny risk, will they ever rescind the order? As we know, winter deaths are significantly higher because of flu and pneumonia. Will they tell us all winter long that we must wear these masks to stop the spread of flu?

[cricketfieldclarets]

The problem is that if they are enforcing it now for coronavirus when it is a tiny risk, will they ever rescind the order? As we know, winter deaths are significantly higher because of flu and pneumonia. Will they tell us all winter long that we must wear these masks to stop the spread of flu?

Not for flu. Because there is immunity to it and there is a vaccine for it.

FWIW I think it’s a sensible step to take to prevent any upturn before winter. And also to give people confidence to go in shops.

Keeping it down while it’s very low has to be a good thing. Makes it even harder to spread and hopefully may see the back of it!

I’d sooner don a mask than go into lockdown.

For all saying it’s a ploy by the government etc. I can’t think of one good reason that they’d want to control us by enforcing masks. Especially when when it would be easier to control us via no masks and facial recognition!!

[Zlatan]

26B6A18D-3CF9-46E3-8B25-D80E03FED96F.jpeg (91.67 KiB) Viewed 2811 times

[FactualFrank]

Wearing a mask for my own and others' safety is ridiculous. In protest, tonight I will be driving up and down the M1 without a seatbelt or headlights on.

[UnderSeige]

The inconsistent messaging especially on masks has been the problem. I said right at the start that eventually they will enforce mask wearing. Just didn’t want to at the beginning when hospitals didn’t have enough.

I think that's the key to understanding the mask confusion. Government avoiding embarrassment of UK Mask shortage and not wanting the public to frantically buy masks like they did with toilet rolls and hand sanitiser.

I don't know why the government didn't just explain the situation and then, through the media, suggest ways of making masks and face coverings. They could have even presented mask making as a 'fun thing'.

[cricketfieldclarets]

[FactualFrank]

I always get worried when people mention 'game-changer'

[UnderSeige]

People get measles twice. I think we can be fairly sure that having coronavirus once does not give full immunity to everyone in the world against having it again. But from the very few apparent cases where it has happened, there is a very good chance that (like measles) you are immune to a second dose unless you're one of the very unlucky few.

Possible but we don't know that yet. The reports are saying that the 'do nothing herd immunity approach' won't work or will at least take a number of years to work through. COVID-19 is not the measles.

Researchers from Korea, Japan, China, Spain and now Kings College London, some of them using live human cases, are finding that antibodies are not retained for much longer than 3 months. As several of us discussed yesterday, the immune system is then reliant upon other weapons in it's arsenal (macrophage, T-cells, cytokins etc.)to fight off new infections until the memory cells can produce new antibodies.

A growing, but relatively small, number of people are now being found to have had COVID-19 twice (see posts from yesterday). How long would it take from the start of the pandemic before people started to get it twice.

• Serious numbers of cases started around mid March (Earlier for China).

• Recovery time - "The median time from onset to clinical recovery for mild cases is approximately 2 weeks and is 3-6 weeks for patients with severe or critical disease"(WHO). Takes us to early April (May for critical).

• After 3 months, many patients will have lost antibodies. Takes us to July (August for critical)Round about now.

• When have second cases started to come forward? Round about now.

[UnderSeige]

I think us over 50's will be getting a jab in October.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/oxford-corona ... 09645.html
It was posted on here months ago that this one looks like a runner.

Let's hope so. On Peston last night Matt Hancock said that the 'best case scenario' is sometime this year and the likely scenario is next year. The scientist at Oxford and Astrazenica look to be saying that there is a 80% chance of it being successful and if successful, vaccinations will be starting in about ten weeks time.

My take on it all is that if it's successful we will have it in early October and if not, they will go back to work on it with a view to having it ready for next year. It's looking good at the moment.

Hancock also said that it will first be rolled out to the 'clinically vulnerable', 'the very old' and 'health workers''. Following this it will be applied down the age groups. He said the Distribution structures (GP's, chemists, work places etc) are already in place. He also said that pharmacies will be playing a big role.