Russia Invades

[Vegas Claret]

They are destroying the infrastruture because they know there is no way they are ever going to be controlling it

That is why the West must make sure Ukraine wins the peace as well. Its going to need massive amounts of money and aid and it has to get it

the West should sell off all the assets they seize and use all the money in the frozen accounts to pay for the rebuild

[Lancasterclaret]

the West should sell off all the assets they seize and use all the money in the frozen accounts to pay for the rebuild

The legal shenanigans after the peace are going to be epic

[Vegas Claret]

The legal shenanigans after the peace are going to be epic

yep, let's hope we get to that stage quickly

[Lancasterclaret]

yep, let's hope we get to that stage quickly

Its a matter of time

There clearly is a road map to peace now, with Ukraine proving it can fight off Russia without joining NATO, and if Putin can spin a promise not to join NATO as a "win". then there is a chance

Not sure what is going to happen to the occupied bits though

[Vegas Claret]

Ukrainian UAV footage showing a Russian tank being struck with a munition, possibly an anti-tank mine.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1503 ... 8Q-Zjqgv7w

[Vegas Claret]

Its a matter of time

There clearly is a road map to peace now, with Ukraine proving it can fight off Russia without joining NATO, and if Putin can spin a promise not to join NATO as a "win". then there is a chance

Not sure what is going to happen to the occupied bits though

not sure, Putin isn't one for telling the truth - what's to stop him getting his "Ukraine can't join NATO" promise from Ukraine and then rebuilding his forces over the next few years to give it another try in the future ? (if they have the money etc to do it). I wouldn't trust him one bit

[Lancasterclaret]

not sure, Putin isn't one for telling the truth - what's to stop him getting his "Ukraine can't join NATO" promise from Ukraine and then rebuilding his forces over the next few years to give it another try in the future ? (if they have the money etc to do it). I wouldn't trust him one bit

They have lost 10% of their equipment and been humiliated on the world stage, with their economy tottering

They might well come back, but it won't be in Putins lifetime

[bfcjg]

I think Putin's grip on power will be seriously under threat now, especially when returning soldiers start relaying the truth about murdering babies,women and children to appease a despot.

[Lowbankclaret]

They have lost 10% of their equipment and been humiliated on the world stage, with their economy tottering

They might well come back, but it won't be in Putins lifetime

Again from Zeihan s book, demographic of Russia means that he needed to take Ukraine now. The collapsing population would mean he could not build an army big enough to take Ukraine in the future.

Add to that Putin has single handedly set the west on the biggest drive for renewable energy at pace that no environmentalist could have ever done.

Russia gets most of its money from oil and gas. It’s likely to bankrupt Russia. Not sure it will be spending billions on new tanks.

[ecc]

BBC

16:43
BreakingFox News cameraman dies following Kyiv attack

Fox News cameraman Pierre Zakrzewski has been killed while reporting outside Kyiv, the US network says.

Zakrzewski was killed and his colleague, Benjamin Hall, was injured when their vehicle was struck by incoming fire yesterday in Horenka, around 20km north-west of the capital, says Fox News CEO Suzanne Scott.

"Pierre was a war-zone photographer who covered nearly every international story for Fox News from Iraq to Afghanistan to Syria during his long tenure with us," she says. “His passion and talent as a journalist were unmatched."

Hall, a 39-year-old British correspondent, is still being treated in hospital following the incident.

It follows the death of Brent Renaud, an American filmmaker, on Sunday.

Zakrzewski's former colleagues have been paying tribute to him on Twitter. "I don’t know what to say. Pierre was as good as they come," correspondent Trey Yingst writes.

[Lancasterclaret]

Again from Zeihan s book, demographic of Russia means that he needed to take Ukraine now. The collapsing population would mean he could not build an army big enough to take Ukraine in the future.

Add to that Putin has single handedly set the west on the biggest drive for renewable energy at pace that no environmentalist could have ever done.

Russia gets most of its money from oil and gas. It’s likely to bankrupt Russia. Not sure it will be spending billions on new tanks.

Yeah, essentially this is it for Russia

Its either a Western satellite or a Chinese one

And like you say, very likely to have accelerated the drive for renewables as well

[ecc]

Hi Vegas,

Not doubting you but how can the bloke be sure it's a Russian tank? Do the Ukranians not have any similar to the Russian Army's current ones?

[Lancasterclaret]

Hi Vegas,

Not doubting you but how can the bloke be sure it's a Russian tank? Do the Ukranians not have any similar to the Russian Army's current ones?

Its from a drone shot from the Ukrainian military

Worth repeating, the Russians do not show anything that is Russian as being destroyed or even damaged

[Claretnick]

OSINT UK
'We are getting pictures of smoke and burning from the Kherson airport. This could be a significant development because the Russian military has historically stored a large number of their helicopters there'.

https://twitter.com/jon96179496/status/ ... Q7P7KjvCMg

[Firthy]

Ukrainian UAV footage showing a Russian tank being struck with a munition, possibly an anti-tank mine.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1503 ... 8Q-Zjqgv7w

I've never seen my wife so pleased at seeing a tank blown up. Sad thing is there are still people being killed who are just doing what's expected of them.

[Lowbankclaret]

Yeah, essentially this is it for Russia

Its either a Western satellite or a Chinese one

And like you say, very likely to have accelerated the drive for renewables as well

Boris’s article from today about us going green faster.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... mir-putin/

[Vegas Claret]

Hi Vegas,

Not doubting you but how can the bloke be sure it's a Russian tank? Do the Ukranians not have any similar to the Russian Army's current ones?

you learn to trust the source - this would have been checked by the people that post it and they clearly have reputations to uphold. Pretty easy to work out who's trustworthy on twitter after a few weeks tbh.

There have been plenty of things I (and others) could have posted but haven't because they either weren't verified or posted by the right people

[Vegas Claret]

not sure if this has been reported, sorry Vlad, this isn't how it works
https://www.secretflying.com/posts/puti ... 9MdwbNB8vU

[Lowbankclaret]

not sure if this has been reported, sorry Vlad, this isn't how it works
https://www.secretflying.com/posts/puti ... 9MdwbNB8vU

Actions like this will put Russia back 70 years.

[Lowbankclaret]

Please read and watch the video.

https://zeihan.com/demographics-and-the-ukraine-war/

[jos]

just confirmed that the woman in question is Channel One employee Marina Ovsyannikova.

She has been detained.

Very brave.

Sorry if this has already been reported but …. She’s out after being fined $280.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 02532?s=21

[ecc]

Thanks, Lancaster. I saw that but, I apologise to you, Vegas and all the lads updating this excellent thread, but couldn't the Ukranians show one of their own tanks being blown up and say it was a Russian one? Do the Russians not have drones out there?

Maybe I'm totally paranoid but anything is possible in terms of disinformation.

[JarrowClaret]

Someone I served with settled in Ukraine over 10 years ago I had heard in the very early days he was tracking across Ukraine to get to safety. I have since found out he got his family to safety and he has gone back to fight for his adopted home. The updates I have seen from him he is very active now I think in the Donbas region. Very sobering reading his updates, born fighter and clearly a very brave man.

[Lancasterclaret]

Thanks, Lancaster. I saw that but, I apologise to you, Vegas and all the lads updating this excellent thread, but couldn't the Ukranians show one of their own tanks being blown up and say it was a Russian one? Do the Russians not have drones out there?

Maybe I'm totally paranoid but anything is possible in terms of disinformation.

Well, they could, but why would they?

Both sides are taking losses, both sides are trying to maximise the extent to which they are damaging the other side, whilst minimising their losses

The problem with that is that Russia is claiming (for example) to be shooting down Ukrainian TB-2 drones every day. The amount they claim they have shot down are more than Ukraine actually has.

The thread I keep reposting by a bloke using open source info on the losses has each piece of equipment photo identified, destroyed, damaged or captured by either side and that shows just how bad Russian casualties and equipment losses are

Compare that to a Kremlin backed one (mentioned earlier at the start but crucially claiming to be impartial) and its completely different, but crucially very little photo confirmation of losses for the Russians (but lots for the Ukrainians, including the same equipment being photographed more than once and claimed more than once)

Essentially, both sides are using propaganda, but there are enough sources (but essentially impartial from a reporting point of view) in the West that are more trustworthy than the equivalent for Russia

But you have to remember that both sides are using propaganda which is why the independent fact checkers (which don't exist on the Russian side) help make the Ukrainian stuff more believable than the Russian stuff (but still some stuff is clearly made up on the Ukrainian side)

[Vegas Claret]

Actions like this will put Russia back 70 years.

agree, and when the sanctions kick in properly and the younger generation can't buy anything they will have a decision to make. I would imagine the pressure about to be put on Putin would be intense (not that he'll notice though)

[atlantalad]

not sure if this has been reported, sorry Vlad, this isn't how it works
https://www.secretflying.com/posts/puti ... 9MdwbNB8vU

He has not thought this through ....how does he expect to get the RR or GE engines serviced.

[Vegas Claret]

He has not thought this through ....how does he expect to get the RR or GE engines serviced.

he seemingly hasn't thought anything through !! The only way he can fly the planes is now internally in Russia - the minute they go to any (remaining) international airport there will be an attempt to seize it. As Lancaster said, he's taking Russia back 70 years (and imho it wont be long until the younger generation kick off about it)

[ecc]

Hi Vegas,

Many thanks. We know there have always been lies in all wars (just look at WWII) and things are far worse these days largely due to the Internet.

I am noting down the different sources used by you chaps so I can follow them too.

Must say the map published by the bloke called "Jomini of the West" is incredibly detailed.

[elwaclaret]

Phillips OBrian - none of what we expected Russia to start doing today happened. Putin seems to have abandoned his troops in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 60672?s=21

[Lowbankclaret]

I thought I read somewhere that.most planes can be monitored remotely whilst flying to keep an eye on the engines etc, perhaps some of the aerospace experts/engineers could comment ? If this is true who the hell would fly in one of these planes or fly in one repaired with cannibalised parts.

Your correct most modern jets are monitored back at base.
Cannibalised parts are used all around the world, some parts are monitored by Cycles. A cycle being a take off and landing.

So let’s say a combuster has a life of 5000 cycles and it runs out of life and you strip me from another engine with 3000 cycles, your all good.

Russian airlines have bigger problems to be fair.

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA - More proof of genocide, a tank uses man as target practice. Bloody awful/wasteful/incredible/evil, but it happened.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 72643?s=21

[GodIsADeeJay81]

https://twitter.com/ITVJoel/status/1503 ... -uLGw&s=19

Russian government have drawn up plans to seize assets of companies that have withdrawn from Russia in support of Ukraine....

[Vegas Claret]

https://twitter.com/ITVJoel/status/1503 ... -uLGw&s=19

Russian government have drawn up plans to seize assets of companies that have withdrawn from Russia in support of Ukraine....

he is literally closing the door on his own country

[GodIsADeeJay81]

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/sta ... QFhBQ&s=19

Apologies if already posted, this interesting about Russian disinformation and how the American far right have been hooked right in by conspiracy theories

[JarrowClaret]

https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/sta ... QFhBQ&s=19

Apologies if already posted, this interesting about Russian disinformation and how the American far right have been hooked right in by conspiracy theories

Strange I had a conversation with a colleague in Canada only last week about that very subject people saying it was disgusting about the bio chem labs etc.

[Vegas Claret]

...

[Lancasterclaret]

March 15 Campaign assessment (the usual one is having a day off while he thinks about how to do his (already excellent) maps better

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... t-march-15

[Lancasterclaret]

Strikes on a Russian artillery battery

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1503994995308732419

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Reports that Russia have lost yet another senior officer, Major General who's in charge of their 150th motorised division

[JarrowClaret]

Reports that Russia have lost yet another senior officer, Major General who's in charge of their 150th motorised division

Not confirmed yet but a number of spices are reporting it.

Also not confirmed but an interesting development of true:

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/150396 ... 80072?s=21

Edit sources clearly no spices would report anything like that unless you removed the “c”

[Hipper]

Hi Vegas,

Sorry just posted a message. I hadn't seen your own.

Fair play. I'll trust your sources.

ecc, this is the main source I use:

https://www.understandingwar.org/

The maps are used by the BBC. Most of its sources seem to be Ukrainian but reading this plus looking at some of the links posted, in particular by Vegas Claret and Lancasterclaret, add a bit of 'colour'.

[Lancasterclaret]

Not confirmed yet but a number of spices are reporting it.

Also not confirmed but an interesting development of true:

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/150396 ... 80072?s=21

Edit sources clearly no spices would report anything like that unless you removed the “c”

Taking stuff like this with a big pinch of salt

Défense is a hell of a lot easier than attack

Though if I was going to believe that the Ukrainians could roll back the Russians that far, then it would be in the Kyi'v/Kharki'v sectors

[Lancasterclaret]

ecc, this is the main source I use:

https://www.understandingwar.org/

The maps are used by the BBC. Most of its sources seem to be Ukrainian but reading this plus looking at some of the links posted, in particular by Vegas Claret and Lancasterclaret, add a bit of 'colour'.

Already posted that about four posts above yours

The maps and analysis that are being provided by a whole host of contributors are brilliant

All we are missing is someone who has contacts within the Russian military and is impartial enough so we'd have a better comparison of Russian capabilities/casualties/advances

[Hipper]

NEXTA - More proof of genocide, a tank uses man as target practice. Bloody awful/wasteful/incredible/evil, but it happened.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 72643?s=21

I find that unlikely. Look at the tank barrel, its direction and reaction just before the explosion (there isn't one. You would expect a large flash and smoke at the gun barrel end).

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/DemeryUK/status/1504039554973581317

US Bradley AFVs heading east from Germany

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status ... 1149291522

More stuff on the Ukrainian attack on Kherson airbase

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1504014457005039617

Sounds very positive on the chance of peace

[Hipper]

How are the Syrian reinforcements being transported to Russia?

[Lancasterclaret]

How are the Syrian reinforcements being transported to Russia?

Very easily

Russia biggest airbase outside of Russia is at Tartus in Syria

Just bring them in

But its a propaganda thing in the short term, they will need proper training, acclimatisation and equipment before they are combat ready

I see it as a "look, we can just get more troops from places like Syria if we can't find an acceptable peace agreement" to be honest

[elwaclaret]

I find that unlikely. Look at the tank barrel, its direction and reaction just before the explosion (there isn't one. You would expect a large flash and smoke at the gun barrel end).

Couldn’t comment, NEXTA is a news agency (think it was also forwarded by high level military/academic source, but I myself make not further claim to it.