Russia Invades

[elwaclaret]

OSINTtech - Footage released of Ukrainian 2S7 Unit

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 72770?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

grim footage from Kherson
https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/status/150 ... 9blvpEchIg

[Vegas Claret]

[Lowbankclaret]

Why are they protesting? Go grab a gun, way past the point of protesting.

Last I read they had run out of guns to hand out.

[Lancasterclaret]

The idea of a Marshall Plan for Ukraine is a brilliant one btw

Lets them know they can rebuild after this, far faster than the Russians will be able to

[elwaclaret]

Russian chopper with “To Berlin” written in Russian on the tail

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 82112?s=21

[AlargeClaret]

I hope the US keeps a lid on Biden , having someone with such a pronounced decline in mental capacity leading the US such as JB ,shouting out nonsense could easily trigger a catastrophic event . Thankfully he’s almost unable to speak off the cuff /without teleprompter etc so hopefully no more “ senior moments “ . That said, even in his much reduced state he’s probably way better than Trump

[Hipper]

All the more reason that NATO just keeps doing what its doing

If Russia is getting to the stage where it needs NATO intervention on the other side, then its getting desperate

Can't stress this enough, Russia has no support at all, but if NATO intervenes in Ukraine (after saying it won't) then they will have a lot more

Everyone keep calm, we are playing this right and its Russia that keeps making the wrong moves and will pay for it

I don't understand what real benefit the Russians will have if NATO intervene - I understand the propaganda bit but we are talking real war. Militarily it will not help the Russian cause, especially looking at their current performance. Who will side with them that can have any impact? Only China and I'm not sure it's in their interests to get involved at all.

I agree that NATO should keep out but continue to supply weapons as much as it can. It's not nice but it's the most pragmatic from our point of view.

[Hipper]

OSINTtech. - RT footage of Russian armour unloading at Berdyansk

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... 69218?s=21

Those vehicles have mud on their tyres. Have they really just come off a ship like that? Isn't it more likely they are part of the occupying force having arrived by road/fields?

[Lancasterclaret]

I don't understand what real benefit the Russians will have if NATO intervene - I understand the propaganda bit but we are talking real war. Militarily it will not help the Russian cause, especially looking at their current performance. Who will side with them that can have any impact? Only China and I'm not sure it's in their interests to get involved at all.

I agree that NATO should keep out but continue to supply weapons as much as it can. It's not nice but it's the most pragmatic from our point of view.

Personal opinion this Hipper

From what I've seen and heard, Russian disinformation efforts are really going for countries outside of Western Europe, with a lot of stuff about NATO aggression and imperialism

If NATO changes its mind (doing the right thing, but for the wrong reasons) then they can really amplify that, and certainly it will help their domestic message as well

[elwaclaret]

Those vehicles have mud on their tyres. Have they really just come off a ship like that? Isn't it more likely they are part of the occupying force having arrived by road/fields?

It’s RT footage… so they could be families on a road trip for all we honestly know.

[elwaclaret]

REUTERS: Another Russian payment maybe met today towards their national debt, against Western expectations (after sanctions); but it just one of a few due over the next few weeks.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1505 ... 61474?s=21

[NewClaret]

Personal opinion this Hipper

From what I've seen and heard, Russian disinformation efforts are really going for countries outside of Western Europe, with a lot of stuff about NATO aggression and imperialism

If NATO changes its mind (doing the right thing, but for the wrong reasons) then they can really amplify that, and certainly it will help their domestic message as well

Also, while Western news agencies report on the Russian atrocities, it seems the Ukrainian forces are having a decent amount of success in defending themselves.

If they can keep chipping away, every tank disarmed or logistic truck destroyed each day is weakening the Russian army. If NATO do envisage getting involved, I imagine it will be towards the end when they will come in and deliver a short, sharp, killer blow.

[Taffy on the wing]

The idea of a Marshall Plan for Ukraine is a brilliant one btw

Lets them know they can rebuild after this, far faster than the Russians will be able to

It should be rebuilt in a model way......completely sustainable & a beacon for others to follow.
Get all the best brains on the job...make Russia look like it's in the stone-age.

[Lancasterclaret]

Also, while Western news agencies report on the Russian atrocities, it seems the Ukrainian forces are having a decent amount of success in defending themselves.

If they can keep chipping away, every tank disarmed or logistic truck destroyed each day is weakening the Russian army. If NATO do envisage getting involved, I imagine it will be towards the end when they will come in and deliver a short, sharp, killer blow.

This isn't the only post suggesting its possible for this not to escalate if NATO gets involves, but its a recurring theme that I think is very wise to knock on the head

Correct

NATO will make very short work of the Russian airforce and fleet, but that will leave Russia completely defenceless

Russian doctrine is the same as everyone elses in that situation, and its not surrender

Not having a go at anyone, but there does need to be an awareness of what the risks are here

[elwaclaret]

ABRAMOVICH WATCH via REUTERS: Russian Steel Maker EVRE.L has however missed a $19m bond payment due to sanctions imposed on major shareholder Roman Abramovich.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1505 ... 08453?s=21

[elwaclaret]

This isn't the only post suggesting its possible for this not to escalate if NATO gets involves, but its a recurring theme that I think is very wise to knock on the head

Correct

NATO will make very short work of the Russian airforce and fleet, but that will leave Russia completely defenceless

Russian doctrine is the same as everyone elses in that situation, and its not surrender

Not having a go at anyone, but there does need to be an awareness of what the risks are here

Or the absolute knowledge that those others that matter, will under no circumstances agree to fire.

[NewClaret]

This isn't the only post suggesting its possible for this not to escalate if NATO gets involves, but its a recurring theme that I think is very wise to knock on the head

Correct

NATO will make very short work of the Russian airforce and fleet, but that will leave Russia completely defenceless

Russian doctrine is the same as everyone elses in that situation, and its not surrender

Not having a go at anyone, but there does need to be an awareness of what the risks are here

Overall I’d say Putin is a bully and generally bullies only understand force. But far better they stand back and avoid giving him a reason to justify his actions. For now.

I think everyone knows what the risks are. And I’m not suggesting NATO get involved at all. Far better Russia bog themselves down fighting Ukraine because every day they do that, NATO become stronger by default. But if they were to take action I’d imagine it to be sudden, painful and over as soon as it started.

Really hoping he’s overturned by his own though.

[Lancasterclaret]

Overall I’d say Putin is a bully and generally bullies only understand force. But far better they stand back and avoid giving him a reason to justify his actions. For now.

I think everyone knows what the risks are. And I’m not suggesting NATO get involved at all. Far better Russia bog themselves down fighting Ukraine because every day they do that, NATO become stronger by default. But if they were to take action I’d imagine it to be sudden, painful and over as soon as it started.

Really hoping he’s overturned by his own though.

Apparently the actual Russian casualty figures for the Ukrainian war have been leaked in a Russian paper

Considering the Kremlin has admitted to 498, its going to be very hard to see they explain away 9,500 dead and 16,550 injured (going from memory here so might be slightly out)

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA: An evacuation bus containing children was shelled by Russia in Mariupol, causing serious injury.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 97677?s=21

[NewClaret]

Apparently the actual Russian casualty figures for the Ukrainian war have been leaked in a Russian paper

Considering the Kremlin has admitted to 498, its going to be very hard to see they explain away 9,500 dead and 16,550 injured (going from memory here so might be slightly out)

Well, in the most humane way possible, I hope none of the 16.5k recover to the extent that they can return to action.

[elwaclaret]

EU is in preparation for a 5th package of sanctions, but oil and gas policy remains unchanged NEXTA

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 55297?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

NEXTA: An evacuation bus containing children was shelled by Russia in Mariupol, causing serious injury.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 97677?s=21

another war crime, and still there will be no repercussions from NATO. I've been brought up on everybody is the same and every life matters equally - not your life matters more if the name of your country is on a piece of paper. I won't apologize for that view ever.

[JarrowClaret]

missile strike on shopping mall in Kyiv
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505 ... s2NuCEV9EQ

There are pictures online of the Ukrainians putting military vehicles there, that turns it into a legitimate target. Granted they could have been a bit more precise but I think we have seen if we didn’t already know that isn’t the Russian style.

[Lancasterclaret]

Those vehicles have mud on their tyres. Have they really just come off a ship like that? Isn't it more likely they are part of the occupying force having arrived by road/fields?

I'm going to guess here and say that its easier to transport these vehicles by sea than it is to by land, as it saves on the wear and tear and its almost impossible to interdict

I'm not even going to hazard a guess where about they are going, but maybe Mariupol?

[JarrowClaret]

I'm going to guess here and say that its easier to transport these vehicles by sea than it is to by land, as it saves on the wear and tear and its almost impossible to interdict

I'm not even going to hazard a guess where about they are going, but maybe Mariupol?

What interests me is the lack of roll on roll off facility craning them out seems like a lot of work would be a huge plus if the Ukrainians could arrange some sort of long range fires in it.

[elwaclaret]

another war crime, and still there will be no repercussions from NATO. I've been brought up on everybody is the same and every life matters equally - not your life matters more if the name of your country is on a piece of paper. I won't apologize for that view ever.

Could not agree more. But we live in the 21st Century, Putin’s brain is still in the 1940’s… that is not an easy thing to deal with - and lets not forget even that bat-**** crazy North Korean has nukes as well as Putin (if China need to keep their own hands clean). I’d have to be on their pay grade to try to work out any safest option in any of this.

[Lancasterclaret]

Apparently the actual Russian casualty figures for the Ukrainian war have been leaked in a Russian paper

Considering the Kremlin has admitted to 498, its going to be very hard to see they explain away 9,500 dead and 16,550 injured (going from memory here so might be slightly out)

Guessing that they have admitted to the real numbers because people were starting to believe it was even worse than that (and that is bad enough)

[Lancasterclaret]

What interests me is the lack of roll on roll off facility craning them out seems like a lot of work would be a huge plus if the Ukrainians could arrange some sort of long range fires in it.

Apparently, the class of amphib has an on board crane to assist in unloading at damaged docks - would make sense

Thing is with roll on/roll off, you need linkspans to unload, maybe there isn't that facility at any of the Sea of Azov ports, or maybe they have been damaged?

[Lancasterclaret]

Just seen the comparison with deaths with Afghanistan

circa 13,000 in 10 years, as compared with 10,000 in a month in Ukraine

The 16 day Battle for Berlin in 1945 cost the Russians c 80,000 dead

Goes without saying, but those casualties are unsustainable

If this doesn't kick off serious anti-war protests all over Russia, then its doubtful anything will

[Lancasterclaret]

Here you go Jarrow - all explained

No linkspans, as a grain port

https://twitter.com/navalhistorian/stat ... 5358248967

[Vegas Claret]

Could not agree more. But we live in the 21st Century, Putin’s brain is still in the 1940’s… that is not an easy thing to deal with - and lets not forget even that bat-**** crazy North Korean has nukes as well as Putin (if China need to keep their own hands clean). I’d have to be on their pay grade to try to work out any safest option in any of this.

not disagreeing with you, but I can't in good conscience sit here and pretend to be happy with how the leaders and NATO are dealing with it. I for one don't think Russia has anywhere near the capability it says it does, I knew the Air Force was crap (as is China's for the most part, very antiquated and the modern fleet the do have is VERY low in numbers). Glad I don't have to make the decisions though

[elwaclaret]

Apparently, the class of amphib has an on board crane to assist in unloading at damaged docks - would make sense

Thing is with roll on/roll off, you need linkspans to unload, maybe there isn't that facility at any of the Sea of Azov ports, or maybe they have been damaged?

I believe all the Black Sea ports were heavily mined before the invasion, including verities that only rose from the seabed when activated. We’re not hearing a lot about the Naval side but I believe several Russian ships/boats have already knocked out (along with drone strikes).

[Lancasterclaret]

I believe all the Black Sea ports were heavily mined before the invasion, including verities that only rose from the seabed when activated. We’re not hearing a lot about the Naval side but I believe several Russian ships/boats have already knocked out (along with drone strikes).

Ukraine never had much of a navy to start with, and there has been zero damage to the Russian navy (certainly from confirmed sources) and even more interestingly, the Sea of Azov has been open to civilian shipping since March 10th (certainly you wouldn't want to be going in there with Western flagged vessel for insurance purposes, but there was a block of civilian shipping at Kerch before the invasion, and they appear to have unloaded in the Sea of Azov and are on their way back out)

Ukraine don't have a viable anti-ship capacity basically, and any mines they have would have been laid at the ports they might be able to hold, like Myloki'v and Odessa (or Russia could have swept them clean from Berdyansk)

Not sure how much it helps their supply situation in the south, but its certainly a bonus in an area they are already doing reasonably well in (in the context of the overall huge strategic failure of course!)

[elwaclaret]

ABRAMOVICH WATCH : Yatchsmen from Odessa tried to prevent Abrmovich’s yacht docking in Bodram, Turkey, until police arrived to stop them. NEXTA

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 32616?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

Ukraine never had much of a navy to start with, and there has been zero damage to the Russian navy (certainly from confirmed sources) and even more interestingly, the Sea of Azov has been open to civilian shipping since March 10th (certainly you wouldn't want to be going in there with Western flagged vessel for insurance purposes, but there was a block of civilian shipping at Kerch before the invasion, and they appear to have unloaded in the Sea of Azov and are on their way back out)

Ukraine don't have a viable anti-ship capacity basically, and any mines they have would have been laid at the ports they might be able to hold, like Myloki'v and Odessa (or Russia could have swept them clean from Berdyansk)

Not sure how much it helps their supply situation in the south, but its certainly a bonus in an area they are already doing reasonably well in (in the context of the overall huge strategic failure of course!)

and should it all kick off they will be the easiest target of them all

[elwaclaret]

Ukraine never had much of a navy to start with, and there has been zero damage to the Russian navy (certainly from confirmed sources) and even more interestingly, the Sea of Azov has been open to civilian shipping since March 10th (certainly you wouldn't want to be going in there with Western flagged vessel for insurance purposes, but there was a block of civilian shipping at Kerch before the invasion, and they appear to have unloaded in the Sea of Azov and are on their way back out)

Ukraine don't have a viable anti-ship capacity basically, and any mines they have would have been laid at the ports they might be able to hold, like Myloki'v and Odessa (or Russia could have swept them clean from Berdyansk)

Not sure how much it helps their supply situation in the south, but its certainly a bonus in an area they are already doing reasonably well in (in the context of the overall huge strategic failure of course!)

I think I posted something on the mining of the ports, explaining the different kinds they had laid (sadly cannot remember location details) but we have had reports of Naval casualties; the was a minesweeper (possibly more than 1) and several small attack boats as I remember.

[Lancasterclaret]

I think I posted something on the mining of the ports, explaining the different kinds they had laid (sadly cannot remember location details) but we have had reports of Naval casualties; the was a minesweeper (possibly more than 1) and several small attack boats as I remember.

Thing is, its clear that the Sea of Azov is open for Russian supply ships

Looks like Berdyansk isn't capable of unloaded ships without onboard cranes due to damage/destruction/just not having them, so they will be reliant on ships like this (and they can't have that many) for all their supply needs that that are currently struggling on roads.

That seems unlikely to be honest, and the deep water port they really want (Mariupol) is going to be useless due to damage

What they could do is not have their amphib vessels posturing outside Odessa and actually use them for transporting supply stuff, but I'm guessing that kind of logistically thinking isn't Russias strong point (and there is a lot of evidence that it isn't!)

[elwaclaret]

REUTERS: Britain plans to ‘temporarily’ nationalise its Gazprom facilities.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1505 ... 41891?s=21

[ecc]

"Really hoping he’s overturned by his own though."

I think it's what we all want. I am resolutely naive but I remain hopeful that this will happen. The problem is how long will it take.

[elwaclaret]

Thing is, its clear that the Sea of Azov is open for Russian supply ships

Looks like Berdyansk isn't capable of unloaded ships without onboard cranes due to damage/destruction/just not having them, so they will be reliant on ships like this (and they can't have that many) for all their supply needs that that are currently struggling on roads.

That seems unlikely to be honest, and the deep water port they really want (Mariupol) is going to be useless due to damage

What they could do is not have their amphib vessels posturing outside Odessa and actually use them for transporting supply stuff, but I'm guessing that kind of logistically thinking isn't Russias strong point (and there is a lot of evidence that it isn't!)

Good post, and very informative (a lot I hadn’t seen). I should imagine we’ll know when things really heat up on that font, I should image there’s been quite a buildup of countermeasures in place by now.

[elwaclaret]

REUTERS: U.N. General Assembly likely to vote again, ramping up diplomatic pressure on Russia (and show a still United front in opposition) to end the invasion.

https://twitter.com/reutersuk/status/15 ... 62383?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

...

[elwaclaret]

REUTERS: Russia leading airport furloughs some workers and freezes hiring.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1505 ... 90790?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

Zelensky

[Vegas Claret]

REUTERS: Russia leading airport furloughs some workers and freezes hiring.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1505 ... 90790?s=21

the whole thing will be operating at minimal levels soon, no international traffic

[elwaclaret]

BLOOMBERG via NEXTA: BNP Paribas Bank Group suspends its Russian operations.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 62176?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

Not sure if this has been posted : Video from the Azov regiment allegedly showing Russian strikes on industrial enterprises in Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1505 ... eddTdHafIQ

[JarrowClaret]

Here you go Jarrow - all explained

No linkspans, as a grain port

https://twitter.com/navalhistorian/stat ... 5358248967

Yeh makes sense good post ta.

[Lowbankclaret]

I posted a link to the amount of nukes Russia had yesterday. I didn’t put any thoughts on that link but some of the debate today I would like to comment on. But it is my opinion.

Why does Putin want to draw in NATO? I think it’s in the detail of the amount of nuclear weapons he has, if he can draw in NATO, that gives him the green light to start using what appears on paper to be a large arsenal of tactical nukes. The BBC detailed around 4,500 nuclear arms he has.

The conventional war in Ukraine, is Russia winning ? The more I read, the more it suggests it is now losing the conventional war. Mariupol is literally flattened but Russias troops still don’t want to attack as they will take massive loses they cannot sustain.

I read a report today that Putin thought he had 10,000 cruise missile when he started this war, but the corruption meant someone put 9,000 cruise missile finance in their pocket and they only had 1,000 which have nearly been used up already.


So my summary today is.
Putin is running out of missiles.
He is running out of troops.
He is running out of tanks.

As long as we keep sending N-love, Russia will lose.